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Talk of diversification
Politics over drones |
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Spurt in rape cases
India’s nutritional problem
How did you choose?
India and its future challenges
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Talk of diversification The Punjab Chief Minister has asked for Rs 5,000 crore in the 12th Plan to encourage crop diversification, which practically means looking at alternatives to paddy. Till the other day he was demanding a similar amount as relief for paddy growers hit by a deficient monsoon in July.
No one objects to wheat, a traditional crop, the state, and also the country, cannot do without. It is paddy that needs to be discouraged. The damage the water-guzzler paddy has done to the state’s groundwater resources is well known. If crops other than paddy are to be encouraged, political leaders will have to first stop pleading for a higher minimum support price, a bonus or relief for paddy. While it is understandable for the Chief Minister of a cash-strapped state to make demands on the Central funds, it would be interesting to know what the state itself has done to either discourage paddy or promote alternative crops. The state government formed committees of experts in 1985 and 2002 but their reports have been dumped. The state can only create an enabling environment but cannot tell farmers what crops to grow. Pulses, oilseeds, sunflower and maize have been tried, but these crops do not give returns matching paddy. And there is no assured marketing. Horticulture, organic and contract farming may suit only large farmers. The vast majority of small farmers, especially those close to towns and cities, can try vegetables, given the price rise. But there are hurdles. Due to lack of quick, affordable transportation and enough cold storages, 40 per cent of fruits and vegetables go waste, reducing returns for the grower and raising the cost for the consumer. Retail FDI can boost agriculture-based businesses apart from small and medium units as supermarkets are required to access 30 per cent of their needs from them. By shutting Punjab’s doors to foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail, the Akali Dal has denied farmers and industrialists an opportunity to link themselves to organised marketing and grow or produce what markets demand.
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Politics over drones Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Party chief Imran Khan could not enter the South Waziristan Agency along with his “peace” marchers on Sunday, but he has succeeded in bringing into sharp focus the issues related to drone attacks by the US in Pakistan’s tribal areas.
The cricketer-turned-politician held a public meeting at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border town of Tank in Khyber-Pakhtoonkhwa province after concluding his march because the authorities did not allow him to take his supporters inside the sensitive tribal area on the pretext of security threat to them. But the pros and cons of the drone campaign against the Taliban got considerable publicity not only in Pakistan but also in the US, Europe and elsewhere. Are the targeted killings helping the cause of fighting international terrorism? Has the extremist Taliban movement got weakened owing to the killing of some of its leaders by the US with the help of Predators? What about the humanitarian issues related to the drone campaign? Some Taliban leaders have definitely been eliminated, but in the process the extremist movement has succeeded in getting more and ideologically committed supporters to its side. There are areas like the Shawal Valley in North Waziristan where the writ of the Taliban still runs. The drone attacks are making it more difficult for the Pakistan Army to bring the situation in the tribal areas under control. The authorities trying to wrest control of the Taliban-infested tribal areas are dubbed “agents of the US and Jews”. The PPP-led government in Islamabad has tried in vain to convince the people in these areas that it is opposed to the drone attacks as this leads to the killing of innocent civilians more than Taliban-linked terrorists. They accuse the government of being in hand in glove with the Americans and this factor is being exploited by Imran Khan to increase his following, keeping in view the coming general election in Pakistan. Khan has been campaigning against the use of drones for a long time, earning the sobriquet of “Taliban Khan”. But how far he will succeed in converting into votes the outrage among the people against the drones remains to be seen.
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Spurt in rape cases Economic prosperity sans social growth can take a whole generation on to a path of self-destruction. When crimes are committed against women at an alarming rate and with such shocking nonchalance for consequences as happening in Haryana, women feel disempowered. But for men, too, it is paving the way for their quick obliteration.
A healthy society can’t be based on the premise of master and servant equation between its men and women. Unfortunately, when growth is interpreted only in terms of financial prosperity, which is translated in its agrarian format for the men by selling of lands, this power disturbs the already skewed balance of the social fabric, which has been tilted in favour of men since ages. The horrifying spurt in the rate of crimes against women in Haryana remind one of a somewhat similar scenario in some of the Gulf states where oil money brought sudden riches and the self-destructive arrogance attached to it, which worsened the position of women in that society. While the secular and democratic base of our society apparently does not allow the heady mix of religion and money and politics to thrive, it has been given enough room to grow by a caste-based khaps, supported by a caste-based polity, which has reduced women’s status to negligible entities, in violation of their constitutional rights. An absolute indifference to quality education further nurtured the notions of male superiority in its crudest form for such a long time. Why did the state machinery not nip these ills in the bud? Why was the first rapist in the state not given the kind of punishment that would work as a deterrent to the rest? Lack of security for women in the state would also mean lack of opportunities to grow and be a person in their own right. These are some of the issues the state polity and administration should be concerned with. Instead of hiding behind some data, the callous bureaucrats should read the fine print behind crimes against women and treat them with sensitivity.
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No man can taste the fruits of autumn while he is delighting his scent with the flowers of spring. — Samuel Johnson
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India’s nutritional problem Nearly 50 per cent of Indian children are underweight and more than 70 per cent of women and children have serious nutritional deficiencies, including anaemia, according to a report by UNICEF. India is at the bottom of the world’s maiden nutrition barometer along with countries like Angola, Cameroon, Congo and Yemen. The report draws attention to India’s ill-fed underbelly and exposes the failure of several schemes to address healthcare issues among the poor.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh described the abysmal nutritional record as a national disgrace. One of the primary reasons for the state of affairs is the fact that India’s spending on health is abysmally low. Only 1.67 per cent of the GDP has been earmarked in the 12th Plan. The report warned that India is likely to miss the Millennium Development Goal on child mortality. Nothing illustrates the tragic consequences of such health deficiency more than the large number of deaths of children year after year in Uttar Pradesh due to Japanese encephalitis. It is a vector-borne disease which afflicts a large number of children during the monsoon season in the eastern part of UP. About 12 districts around Gorakhpur in eastern UP are specifically affected by Japanese encephalitis. The origin of the virus is traced to Japan, but it was eliminated in Japan long ago. This year over 370 children died in the affected areas during the monsoon months. This viral infection has been recorded from 1978 onwards. The annual death record has been well over 200. The mosquitoes are the carriers of the virus, and they breed in stagnant ponds and are also incubated in the underbellies of pigs. There are a number of piggeries owned by certain traditional pig owners who make a living by rearing them. There are also a large number of stagnant ponds. The largest of them is seen just outside Gorakhpur town. The virus infection was eliminated in Japan many years ago, systematically getting rid of the pigs by compensating the owners. Likewise, the infection has also been completely eliminated in Thailand and Malaysia. The Government of Uttar Pradesh has not considered any scheme of compensating the pig owners to get rid of the problem. The only effective way to prevent this virus is to vaccinate children under 10 years of age, and three doses are to be given during a period of 30 days. The total number of children in the 12 districts of Gorakhpur division were said to be around 75 lakhs. Unfortunately, the laboratory at Kasauli is the only source of supply that can produce only 4 lakh vials, The result is that a large number of children were left without vaccination. When I was the Governor of UP, the figures of deaths due to Japanese encephalitis were brought to my notice. I visited the affected areas in July, 2005, and held a meeting with officers, the local MLA and MLC, both paediatricians. I also visited the district hospital and saw the children under treatment. I was told by the doctors that about 40 per cent of the children who survived were likely to become mentally or physically deficient for life. What was more disconcerting was the fact that during my visit to hospital, I found a large number of pigs roaming in the compound of the hospital itself. On return to Lucknow, I discussed the matter with the Chief Minister and senior officers and also wrote to the Minister of Health, Government of India. A team of doctors was arranged by the Ministry of Health, Government of India, which also arranged the import of vaccines. A very large pond exists just outside Gorakhpur town. Apart from the elimination of piggeries in the 12 affected districts of eastern UP and the filling up of shallow ponds in the region, the only way of tackling the annual occurrence of encephalitis was to vaccinate all the children well ahead of the monsoon season. Once the children fall sick, they have to be treated properly and given nutritious food. The consequence of nutritional deficiency in India is fully reflected in the large number of cases of death due to Japanese encephalitis. The fact that this year also there were over 360 deaths due to the same virus infection shows that the preventive steps are not properly being implemented. In the matter of health, whether it pertains to women and children or other vulnerable sections of society, the Poorvanchal region of UP was lagging behind as pointed out by various surveys. The large number of quacks functioning as doctors throughout the state came to notice in September 2006 when a census was carried out by the Health Department of the state government. While the number of qualified doctors in the state was 12,383 which was indeed a small number for a population of around 17 crore, there were as many as 32,245 quacks. There were no efforts by the government to stop the quacks from functioning possibly because of the fact that they provided at least some minimal health facilities to the people. According to a report, that the serious Japanese encephalitis affliction in Poorvanchal had compelled the Central government to take note of it. The Central Health Ministry had reportedly requested the Intelligence Bureau (IB) to prepare a report regarding the state of the infection in eastern UP. The IB has officers functioning in all the districts of the country and they are in a position to prepare a comprehensive report by making field enquiries. The IB has reportedly sent several teams to different districts such as Balrampur, Basti, Gonda, Bahraich, Siddhartha Nagar and Gorakhpur. All these districts are in the north-eastern region of UP and adjacent to Nepal. The region is intimately connected with the life and times of Gautama Buddha. Unusually, a few cases of casualties due to Japan encephalitis have been reported from the coastal region of Odisha. The Director of the Regional Medical Research Centre based at Bhubaneswar has reported that the children afflicted by Japanese encephalitis were mainly from Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Balasore and Jajpur. The total numbers of 117 cases have been reported as victims of Japanese encephalitis from these districts. The Odisha government is yet to take all the steps needed to ensure that this viral infection does not become an annual
affair.n The writer is a former Governor of UP and West Bengal.
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How did you choose? During the recent golden jubilee of our commissioning at the IMA, Dehradun, we exchanged notes of the 50 years gone by. One topic was how each chose his life-partner! This is a brief about four of us. When a friend and family had gone “to see the girl formally” for the first time in 1970, no one had come to receive them at the railway station from the girl’s place. No ubiquitous mobile phones then for instant communication or easily available Sam Pitroda-telephone booths! They, however, managed to reach the place. Seeing them upset about being “not received” properly, the prospective father-in-law apologised, saying his younger daughter had taken the car to receive them from the railway station but had a minor accident, as per a message just received. In a flash, my gallant friend, without even meeting her, said that she is the girl he would marry! When pointed out that she was younger than the girl he had gone to “see”, more adamantly he said “NO” change, it is the younger one! They did get married! A Muslim friend had heard about “a girl” from the wife of a colonel after the 1971 war and had a proposal sent even without seeing her. Understandably, his father-in-law-to-be felt that the boy must be war-wounded; else, how would anyone send a proposal without even seeing the girl. So, he insisted on seeing the prospective groom first! All went well; the marriage did take place! Another friend, then 18, was introduced to a family with three daughters by a friend, in 1960 during a visit to Dehradun. The family was like godparents to many homesick gentlemen-cadets. He renewed his visits in 1961-62, when he landed up in Dehradun as a Gentleman-cadet himself. He moved to “field” thereafter. Divine intervention brought him back once more as a captain to Dehradun in February 1966. “Feelings” started sprouting for the middle girl, as both were in their early twenties. He started zipping 14 km thrice a day from Clement Town on his scooter; petrol was just 67 paise per litre! A problem developed over horoscope matching. He got over the hurdle with help from the same astrologer who had warned his dad “NOT” to proceed with the match but now reluctantly agreed: “Let the children be happy for 15 years” ; sadly, he lost his wife, exactly after 15 years and two months. A Christian girl got engaged to a major in the normal course, but a jealous aunt sowed doubts asking her to be sure as there are havildar-majors and subedar-majors too! The mother beseeched the Lord and her prayers were answered. He was a “real” Major! The usual round of parties during engagement followed; in one, a lady whose daughter was also likely to get engaged to a major asked her about jewellery. The girl said: “Nothing much ... just a kamasutra”, a Freudian slip for mangalsutra! The glare from the major made her move away. It later turned out that the aunt headed to her jeweller for a “kamasutra” for her daughter too, may be, to get a major as
son-in-law!
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India and its future challenges The draft Global Trends 2030 report, which is likely to be released after the US Presidential elections, will attract a considerable amount of attention as the new Presidency comes into office. The report outlines mega trends and a number of game-changers. By 2030 India and China will grow at a scale and pace not seen before. The question of what India’s approach, values and vision will be is of relevance to our future. The historical vision of the nation as laid out by India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru sets the tone for today’s discussions about the future. Nehru was the first to see the strategic space that the Cold War opened up for the emergence of a third voice, much against the wishes of the superpowers. And he chose to use it not for his personal glory or for a narrowly defined national interest. He used it to promote world peace and create the peaceful environment that India’s transformation required. And most importantly, Nehru gave India a sense of destiny. Strategic autonomy We in India are clear that our goal is to transform India. It is this focus that has made India consistently avoid external entanglements and restraints on our freedom of choice and action. Strategic autonomy as is practised today was and remains the essence of the policy of non-alignment. If we have sought strategic autonomy, it is to be able to pursue this goal without distraction or external considerations. India is in an exciting transition. A nation constituting one sixth of humanity is undergoing an economic and social transformation on an extraordinary scale. It is taking place in a democratic and federal framework; in the midst of growing political pluralism and social diversity; and, in the context of a continuing debate on equity, opportunity and sustainability. Internal stability and prosperity lie at the heart of India’s vision for the future. We need at least another 15 years of 9-10 per cent growth, if we are to accomplish the task of abolishing poverty. So, while India is already a major economy in terms of size and ability to influence prices and supply and demand in certain markets, it will remain a country with overwhelming domestic priorities for an extended period of time. This will certainly be true for the foreseeable future. For these goals to be achieved, India needs a peaceful periphery, collective and secure access to natural resources, and an enabling international environment. India is more than willing to contribute to the betterment of the international situation, to shaping the contours of the global order, to promote global public goods, even as it actively pursues its own interests. One of these important interests and areas of our immediate focus must also be the integration of our neighbourhood through increased connectivity. We are conscious that we are living in an interconnected world, where our security is shaped by many events outside national borders and by situations of shared vulnerabilities, the primary being threats emanating from terrorism. Given the strategic uncertainties of the world in 2030, we must develop the means to defend ourselves. Whether this capacity will include our becoming a net provider of security in the Indian Ocean and beyond will depend on to what extent we can effect India’s own transformation. The rise of Asia Forecasting the future is a tricky business, but present trends do indicate that the rise of Asia - particularly China and India - is a fact that cannot be wished away. The draft report of the Global Trends 2030 also points in this direction. The dramatic shifts in the balance of power as a result of China’s military modernisation will obviously have implications for global and regional security and provoke responses from other major powers depending on their geo-political considerations. The India story has also been impressive. In 1947, the average Indian lived for 26 years and only about 14 per cent were literate. Today our average life expectancy is 68 years (WHO figures), with women’s life expectancy exceeding that of men by three years, and 2/3rds of our population is now literate. Our economy has also done well in the last several decades. Its fundamentals remain strong, and we hope to surge forward in spite of the current slowdown. While we need to work harder on our developmental and economic goals, there is reason to take pride in our progress, and be optimistic for the future. The second aspect that will drive global developments is energy production and utilization. Countries will work to ensure access to energy sources. In this, coal, oil, renewable energy as well as extraction of shale gas resources will naturally be relevant. Then, there will be linked issues like the melting of Arctic icecaps, the opening up of opportunities for new shipping routes, and the exploration of oil, gas and mineral deposits. Technology is developing at a rate faster than can be comprehended. The consequences of this in the domains of space and cyber space, and proliferation are of particular concern. Just as the world had to learn new rules and ways of thinking about nuclear weapons, we are now at the beginning of doing so for outer space and cyber space, both of which are increasingly critical to our daily lives, economies and futures. Advances in technology and discussions about what is called the Revolution in Military Affairs, though interesting and important, may not fully explain the revolutionary changes taking place as a result of increasing “connectivity” and “complexity” in a globalized world. One example of such complexity is the nexus we can see between climate change, rising sea levels, and the resultant migration that could lead to conflict. This would demand a different mindset for accurate predictions of likely implications, and also to find effective policy solutions. Strategic initiatives Coming to India’s responses to such developments, as a nation, India has consistently shown tactical caution and strategic initiative, sometimes simultaneously. The record bears this out. Non-alignment itself, in fact, was an act of strategic courage On our external relations, since 1988 we have made considerable and steady progress in our relations with China. The list of our other strategic initiatives is impressive - the Indo-Soviet Treaty, the India-Sri Lanka 1987 Agreement and the FTA, the India-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement, and so on. But equally, initiative and risk taking must be strategic. That is why it is important to peg our goals and use our power to our immediate and overriding aim of domestic transformation. In other words, our condition, and the state of the world, require us not to seek hegemony, or domination, or expansion, or strategic depth. None of these serve our basic interest, even in a defensive sense. Being a bridging power, or a swing state might, in certain circumstances. For example, in the case of piracy from Somalia, which threatens the trade routes, we would seek to build coalitions to deal with the issue. There could be other similar scenarios in the future too. ‘Reverse Engine’ scenario I was struck by the three postulates in the report, firstly the ‘Reverse Engine’ scenario, according to which the US will draw inward, constrained by its mounting fiscal problems; the second scenario of ‘Fusion’ which suggests that the developed and growing powers could work together to ignite a technological revolution to rebuild their economies; and the third scenario of ‘Fragmentation’, which visualizes a world in which there is absence of widespread political will to solve global problems. The scenario of ‘Fusion’, which is the middle path, is the most likely outcome by 2030. Similarly, the game-changers identified in the report are thought provoking, whether relating to the international economy, global governance, interstate and intrastate conflicts, technology, climate change, energy security, sustainable development, and, finally, from an American perspective, what will be the role and influence of the US in the new international order. For a better tomorrow Proceeding from the present and moving into the future requires some clarity on where we stand today. Just as India has premised her future on the transformation of society for a better tomorrow, it appears that the international order will have to work towards a new system of governance. As Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh pointed out in his remarks to the XVIth NAM Summit in Tehran: “We need new instruments of global governance to confront cross-cutting and trans-national challenges through coordinated global action. These (challenges) include international terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the menace of maritime piracy, the growing threat to cyber security, and the growing challenge of pursuing ecologically sustainable development, while ensuring energy, water and food security.” Given the scale of these challenges, our present and future are interlinked by our ability to handle the crisis of the present. Only this capacity and capability will give us the means to achieve a more just and equitable world order. Meanwhile, policy planners such as ourselves will continue to look to the strategic community to construct scenarios and “alternate worlds” for us so that we are, so to speak, ahead of the curve, forewarned and forearmed. There are a number of issues that are likely to continue to engage us in the future. Developments in the Af-Pak region after the withdrawal of US/NATO forces in 2014 and the prospects for instability, or, alternatively, unprecedented regional cooperation, will probably be a priority area. The increasing radicalisation of Pakistan, the possibility of conflict in West Asia provoked by rival geo-political interests, the potential for maritime clashes in North East Asia due to competing nationalisms, and developments in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea are some of the other areas that will be closely watched. These should be carefully analysed in any strategic thinking in India about the future. The writer is India’s Deputy National Security Adviser. The article is excerpted from a speech delivered at an interaction organised by the Observer Research Foundation on October 3.
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