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Fissures in BJP
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Himachal on right track
House sparrow
India enters the Great Game
Memories of Jalalabad
Add life to your liver
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Fissures in BJP
The
faction-ridden BJP in Karnataka has suffered a major blow with the crushing defeat of its candidate V. Sunil Kumar to the Congress nominee K. Jayaprakash Hegde in the Udupi-Chikmagalur byelection to the Lok Sabha. That this seat was held by Sadananda Gowda who gave it up earlier this year upon his elevation as Chief Minister is doubly serious for the ruling party as a warning to it by the electorate. While a deeper analysis of the election result would perhaps pinpoint the precise reasons for BJP’s defeat, it would be foolhardy not to factor in the role of Mr Sadananda Gowda’s predecessor B.S. Yeddyurappa who is up in arms against the party high command in seeking his reinstatement. Clearly, with a majority of the BJP legislators and a dozen members of Parliament supporting Yeddyurappa in open defiance of the party high command, Sadananda Gowda has manifestly failed to justify the trust that party president Nitin Gadkari reposed in him by foisting him. Whereas Mr Yeddyurappa should normally have been called to account for sabotaging his party nominee’s election, predictably, he would now instead be treated with greater deference when he meets Central party leaders in New Delhi. While BJP’s defeat in Udupi-Chikmagalur and the banner of revolt raised by Yeddyurappa bode ill for the party in Karnataka which has to face assembly elections next year, the rumblings in some of its units in the wake of selection of candidates for the Rajya Sabha polls add a new dimension to the brewing crisis. The decision to dump party old-timers like S.S. Ahluwalia, Ram Naik and Kirit Somaiya in preference to what senior party leader Yashwant Sinha described as “outsiders” and “moneybags” has led to a huge outcry against Gadkari. Reports say senior leaders of the party who met in New Delhi wondered if Rajya Sabha seats were being “auctioned” to the highest bidder. This is indeed serious. With assembly elections in BJP-ruled states Karnataka, Himachal and Madhya Pradesh only a year away, it is imperative that the BJP puts its house in order before it is too late. Loss of power in any or all of these states would negate the advantage that the BJP has today due to the growing disenchantment of people at large with the UPA government at the Centre.
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Himachal on right track
Reading
out the state budget for two hours and 20 minutes on Monday, Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal tried to complicate things needlessly. Obfuscation is resorted to when the fiscal situation is bad, which surprisingly is not the case in Himachal Pradesh. Barring a minor VAT increase on tobacco products, Dhumal has not hurt anyone. Rather, ahead of the assembly elections, he has announced tax cuts and hikes in incentives, grants and wages. Much of the good news, however, was lost in tiresome details. The fiscal deficit for 2012-13 at 2.88 per cent of the state GDP is within the acceptable limit. The state’s economy grew at 7.6 per cent – higher than the national average of 6.9 per cent -- in the current fiscal year. Even the state’s per capita income is 20 times higher than the national level. Although the Chief Minister, who also holds the Finance portfolio, has not levied any fresh taxes even in his earlier budgets on local people, the entry tax levied on outside vehicles entering the state, is a good sources of income. The Dhumal government borrows rather liberally to meet its financial requirements since 86 per cent of the revenue goes into the committed expenditure like salaries, pensions and loan repayments. The state debt, which was Rs 22,930 crore in 2008, is set to touch Rs 28,000 crore in the coming fiscal. Successive Himachal governments have paid special attention to human development. The literacy level is high but quality requires improvement. Though the Centre’s special tax package has been cut short, the state has got some industries and made good use of Central schemes and funds. There are some grey areas, however, particularly in governance. The CAG has pointed out deficiencies in the implementation of the national rural employment guarantee scheme and delays in the execution of certain hydroelectric projects resulting in massive cost overruns. Mobilisation of more resources could have helped the state tap its full tourist, hydroelectric and horticultural potential.
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House sparrow
House
sparrow we called it. But the world today seems to have no house for the once ubiquitous, even if diminutive, bird whose incessant chirping would keep the summer afternoons alive. Those were the breeding months. World over, the population of the bird that finds frequent mention in Indian folklore and writings has declined by 50-80 per cent. In certain urban areas, you may not spot one for months. To imagine one could once see the sparrow rise in clouds from agricultural fields. It is sad, but what is sadder —in fact, worrisome — is that there is little discomfort among us humans over the disappearing species. Apart from concern for nature per se, why we need to be particularly worried is that we do not yet know for sure why the sparrow — a prolific breeder — is disappearing. Multiple explanations have been offered — lack of nesting sites in modern architecture; shortage of insects (owing to decreasing greenery) to feed the hatchlings; mobile tower radiations; agricultural pesticides, etc. All of them seem valid, but may still not be a complete explanation, for the bird population has drastically declined even in areas (such as hills) that have not seen much change in environmental conditions. Either way, whatever it is that is killing the house sparrow may have the potential to kill other species too. And could humans be untouched? Tigers, an animal on top of the food chain, have taken the lion’s share of our attention when it comes to conservation. Perhaps because of its majestic looks. The vanishing vultures got attention too. Massive research was done and the painkiller diclofenac given to cattle was identified as the vulture killer; it reached the bird through carrion. Efforts are on to rehabilitate the scavenger bird because mankind is inconvenienced without its help. Other than the missing twitter, there is little to press the government to put its mind, and money, on researching what is killing the sparrow. Let’s do that, before all hope of putting life back into the summer afternoons is lost.
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Love is a canvas furnished by nature and embroidered by imagination. — Voltaire
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India enters the Great Game
The Great Game, which was made famous by Rudyard Kipling, referred to the moves made by Britain and Russia to dominate Central Asia and Afghanistan in the early nineteenth century. The British were alarmed when the Russian empire tried to move into Central Asia and Afghanistan. The principal worry of Britain was that it would eventually threaten British sovereignty over India which was considered as the jewel in the crown. This led to the first Anglo-Afghan war in 1838
which ended in the imposition of a friendly ruler in Afghanistan and stationing of British troops in that country. Delhi has been keen on a larger economic footprint in Afghanistan with about 300 to 400 Afghan nationals arriving in India every day for various purposes such as medical treatment, education and commercial transactions. India is hoping to activate the partnership council which would push forward the Indo-Afghan strategic partnership agreement entered into between President Karzai and Dr. Manmohan Singh during Karzai’s last visit to Delhi. India is looking for the allotment of petroleum blocks in Northern Afghanistan as well as copper mines in various parts of the country. India has already been working on the Hajigak iron ore mines. It may be recalled that India won three out of four Hajigok blocks of iron ore mines in the face of stiff competition from Western companies. India is also interested in at least three copper mines, one near Pakistan and the other near Iran. India is already discussing with the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan for an agreement on the routes through which the mined minerals would be transported. The India-built road which connects the Iranian border with Afghanistan’s garland highway is already in place and a road from the Afghanistan-Iran border to Chabahar is functional. Iran is now planning to construct a rail link to the edge of the India-built road and some other rail tracks that will provide alternative routes. But security remains the key factor. Officials admit that it will be a "long haul" before plans fall in place. In this respect, India is keeping a close eye on three factors – the military posture to be adopted by NATO after 2014, contours of a strategic pact that Afghanistan and the US plan to sign and the political process involving the still-recalcitrant Taliban groups. With the rise of Germany in Central Europe, both Britain and Russia buried their rivalry and entered into an alliance, with Russia accepting British control of Afghanistan, and Britain accepting all the areas north of the Amu Darya river as belonging to Russia. Years later, with the rise of China and its occupation of Tibet, the Great Game assumed a new dimension. As the US and NATO prepare to leave Afghanistan by 2014, Indian focus on Afghanistan is getting intensified. Delhi is preparing to make its presence felt in Central Asia by India’s taking charge of the crucial transportation network through Iran into the region and beyond. Fourteen countries, which are the stake-holders in the region such as Kazakhstan, met in Delhi in January and discussed the project known as the International North-South Corridor. The project envisages a multi-model transportation network that connects the ports on India’s west coast to Bandar Abbas in Iran, then overland to Bandar Anzali port on the Caspian Sea; and further through Rasht and Astara on the Azerbaijan border onwards to Kazakhstan and Russia. Once complete, this would connect Europe and Asia in a unique way; experts estimate the distance could be covered in 25-30 days in what currently takes 45-60 days through the Suez Canal. In the January meeting, Sanjay Singh (Secretary-East, Ministry of External Affairs) and Rahul Khullar (Commerce Secretary) told Iran that India would take charge of the project, including building the missing sections of the railway and road link in Iran. Thanks to US sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, India is finding it difficult to pay for its oil imports with hard currency. One of the best ways of paying for Iranian oil is through infrastructure projects like the corridor, which serves the economic and strategic interests of all the countries concerned. This has been a constructive proposition for India after the North-South Corridor agreement was signed by India, Iran and Russia in September 2000. But over the years, the project fell into disuse. Iran made little attempt to complete the construction on its side, expending little political or administrative energy. Neither did Russia or India, which preferred to talk about it but did little to push it. Meanwhile, 11 other countries, including all the Central Asian states, joined up. The Central Asian countries and India were alarmed over a steady and fast push which China has been making in Central Asia in recent years. China has made considerable progress in building extensive road and railway networks in the region and almost touching the periferry of Europe. The Central Asian countries would like India to rise to the occasion and take the lead in checking China’s advance. These countries seek India’s leadership, particularly since Pakistan remains chronically unstable. Once the North-South Corridor becomes a reality, it could in future extend towards Myanmar and Thailand in the east, thereby connecting Europe, Central Asia and South-East Asia. There is, however, a problem in the matter of working more closely with Iran. The Americans are particularly putting pressure on India to seize its economic link with Iran. More specifically, the US wants India to stop its import of oil from Iran and that the deficit in the import of oil being made up by Saudi Arabia. The powerful Jewish lobby in American politics is particularly pushing for this. India has explained its position in respect of its commercial relationship with Iran. While India will comply with any UN sanctions in respect of Iran, it cannot pay heed to any particular country’s views even if it be the United States. In the forthcoming expert-level meetings in Delhi, Indian officials expect to finalise issues of customs and other commercial infrastructure. India has now agreed to provide all expertise for the same. India is also considering two other transit and transportation networks from Central Asia, both going through Iran. One of them is Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan corridor, a 677 km. railway line connecting these countries with Iran and the Persian Gulf. It will thereafter link up with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The other route connects Uzbekistan through northern Afghanistan which will be known as the Northern Distribution Network. While Iran occupying a pivotal role may be an irritating factor for the US, Washington as well as its NATO allies should remember that 70 per cent of their supplies to their forces in Afghanistan go through these networks. The US has already announced withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan and it is supposed to vacate Afghanistan completely in 2014. However, it was clarified that the US forces in small numbers for purposes of training Afghani troops would remain in Afghanistan. Taking all these factors into consideration, it is hoped that India’s emerging role in Central Asia in the new Great Game may eventually get the acceptance of the US even though Iran plays a crucial part in the entire
scheme.
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Memories of Jalalabad
The
American operation which killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad in Pakistan took off from Jalalabad in Afghanistan. It revived some old memories. The funeral of Badshah Khan, also known as Frontier Gandhi, had taken place in Jalalabad. I was part of the Indian delegation which had gone to attend the funeral. Shankar Dayal Sharma, the then Vice-President of India, was the head of the delegation. I went around Jalalabad town. It was a sleepy rustic village with mud and brick-walled houses. Heavy wooden doors shielded the privacy of families from passersby. A British visitor had described it as a “Dirty little place surrounded by dead donkeys and camels where essences made the live air sick.” In a shop in the tribal territory, automatic rifles hung in endless rows. Rocket launchers were easily available and an anti-tank mine could be got for Rs 25. One thing that struck me was the sight of men, young and not-so-young, hobbling along with one leg. I was told that in the countryside even goats and sheep could be victims of booby-traps and got maimed. Psychological scars were visible in most unexpected places with Kalashnikovs and MiG fighters kept in the place of more traditional motifs. The town was crowded with faces from all over Central Asia, Uzbeks with high cheek bones and wide set eyes. Turkomans with wispy beards and tall Pathans with hawk noses and firm chins. Formerly called Adinapur, it was renamed Jalalabad after the son of Pir Roshan Jalala, who was fighting the Mughals in the Waziristan area. Afghanistan is an anthropologist’s nightmare. Each new invasion or migration left behind its ethnic deposit creating over centuries an ethnic mosaic of bewildering complexity. Trade and ideas followed on the footsteps of imperial armies and nomadic tribes. It was through Afghanistan that Buddhism surged north-wards into China, Mongolia and Korea. Guru Nanak Dev stayed for nearly 40 days in Sultanpur village near Jalalabad. There is Gurudwara Chisma Sahib. The city is home to a Hindu temple on Chowk Omani Street. In Afghanistan, there is a sense of slow sweep of history. There is an unspoken violence in the air. A bitter past collides with an uncertain future. At Badshah Khan’s funeral, all the tribal leaders were present in their traditional attires. It was a scene straight out of a Hollywood set. Their grief was genuine. I was pleasantly surprised to meet many Punjabis – both Hindus and Sikhs. I have never seen such a handsome race of men. I was able to talk to some of the tribal leaders. The tribal chief with whom I was talking had been to Kabul University. Later I came to know that he was Ahmed Shah Masood, the “Lion of Panj Sher”. He was murdered by a Taliban activist, posing as a journalist. The bomb was hidden in his camera. I still remember his words when I asked him that why they could not have peace in Afghanistan. He looked at me fiercely to say that “Peace is an Imbecile’s begging bowl. The only relationship is strength”. He clinched his fist and then said, “Vendetta is sacred and an insult is avenged by a dagger thrust.” Englishmen described the Afghans’ character as “Sentimentality with brutality, family ties with concealed adultery, old world caring with brutal ferocity, a shared code of conduct which exists with lethal betrayal.”n
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Add life to your liver Globally, 70 million people today are estimated to be living with liver cirrhosis or Chronic Liver Disease. Marked by permanent scarring of the liver, cirrhosis is a condition that causes 95 per cent of all liver cancers. The incidence of liver cirrhosis is rapidly increasing globally, with the Asia-Pacific region positioned most precariously as it houses one-third of the world’s burden of liver diseases. At present, cirrhosis of the liver is known to affect 10 per cent of people globally. Any patient with end-stage cirrhosis will require a liver transplant to survive but will have only a five-year survival rate of 15 per cent. Most causes of liver cirrhosis are preventable only if people were more careful and governments focused their attentions on strategies to save more than 20 lakh people from dying annually. This was the message at the International Liver Summit organised by Fortis Hospital, Mohali, recently in Chandigarh. Top liver experts from across the world gathered to discuss trends in liver diseases and strategies for prevention and cure. Also present at the summit was Prof Roger Stanley William, acclaimed as the father of liver disease prevention; the man who set up at King’s College, London, a liver unit in 1966 which went on to become the Institute of Liver Disease, the most reputed liver disease treatment centre in the world. Prof William said that the long-neglected liver diseases had now become the top priority for the WHO, especially in respect to developing countries.
Asia-Pacific region at risk
“In the Asia-Pacific region, Hepatitis B and liver cancer are huge problems. Considering, half of all liver cancers are attributable to Hepatitis B; countries must use the available vaccine to protect every newborn from Hepatitis B. The whole population must be vaccinated,” he added. Among the viral causes of liver cirrhosis are Hepatitis B (infecting 5 per cent of the world’s population) and Hepatitis C (infecting 3 per cent). The non-viral causes include alcohol and obesity, which lead to alcoholic liver disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), respectively. “The Asia-Pacific region houses 350 million carriers of Hepatitis B and 170 million of Hepatitis C. Globally, two billion people have been infected with Hepatitis B. Of these, about 370 million are chronic Hepatitis-B carriers. Most of them are in the Asia Pacific, which is why we have been recommending vaccination for every child,” said Prof Stephen Locarnini from Australia, who is also Director, WHO Regional Reference Laboratory for Viral Hepatitis B.
Obesity, a major danger
In 2010, the WHO had declared 2012 as the target year to reduce hepatitis B prevalence in all its regions to below 2 per cent. That target is far from being met and will have to be revised, Locarnini noted. He also listed obesity-related fatty liver disease as another emerging challenge the world over. In the US, obesity will become the leading cause of liver cirrhosis by 2030. For the Asia-Pacific region, especially India, experts advise universal immunisation coverage to prevent Hepatitis B, whose three-dose vaccine has worked wonders in Taiwan and China. These countries have used the vaccine to reduce the rates of cirrhosis and liver cancer. “But India was among the last countries to include Hepatitis B vaccine in its national programme. Even today, the coverage is known to be less than 50 per cent. The country has about 2 to 7 per cent prevalence of Hepatitis B which is vaccine preventable,” said Prof Arun Sanyal, Chairman, Division of Hepatology, Virginia Commonwealth University. “There are two types of NAFLD. One of these is NASH (Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis), which is related to cardiovascular disease and diabetes. More than 20 pc of all NASH patients will develop chronic cirrhosis; most will die of heart disease before they die of liver cancer,” he said. Professor Sanyal recommended moderate living, balanced diet and regular workouts. On obesity and Hepatitis B as the focus areas for the Asia Pacific, there was unanimity among experts. The Hepatitis B virus is 100 times more infectious than the HIV; it causes 30 pc of all cirrhosis cases and 50 pc of all liver cancers globally. The good part is — it can be detected with a simple blood test. That explains why 172 countries have included the Hepatitis B vaccine in their national immunisation programmes. But even today, the global coverage is just 75 per cent. Only one in five children in the world are getting all the three doses of Hepatitis B vaccine, which is administered at birth, at one month and at six months. “We want the government to ensure 100 per cent coverage with all three doses. This vaccine is inexpensive and is now available in India. It costs less than Rs 1,000 per child. Compare this to the cost of a liver transplant which is above Rs 20 lakh a patient,” says Dr Arvind Sahni, Director, Gastroenterology, Fortis, Mohali. So far as Hepatitis C goes, there is no vaccine available and the only prevention is blood safety and screening, since this virus is transmitted by blood. While the overall prevalence of liver diseases in India is about 20 per cent, 4 per cent of it is attributed to Hepatitis B; 2 per cent to Hepatitis C and 10 to 12 per cent to obesity related fatty liver disease. So the parents should watch their children’s diet and weight. As Dr Anil Dhawan, Professor of Paediatric Hepatology at King’s College, London, explained, “Fatty liver disease presents no symptoms. It will be detected only incidentally but if a child is obese, he has 30 per cent chances of getting this disease. Once the disease sets in, transplant is the only solution. But we must remember transplant is in itself a disease as it requires lifelong medication. The easier way out is — watch your weight.” The fears of NAFLD epidemic has become even more real for India since the publication of a recent research in West Bengal which showed for the first time that rural farming populations had the disease even though they didn’t report any of the risk factors associated with NAFLD. They were neither obese, nor sedentary nor alcohol consumers. “Asian Indians are, in fact, at a higher risk of NAFLD than their American counterparts because they don’t even have to be obese to get the disease. The implications of the West Bengal study are that NAFLD can be much more prevalent globally, and specially among Asian Indians than previously thought. Indians with a lower body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference get the disease which Americans with a higher BMI will get,” explained Prof Patrick Kamath, Professor, Hepatology, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Rochester, Minnesota, US. For a vast country like India, the summit had several critical messages. Topmost among these was the urgent need for 100 per cent Hepatitis B coverage considering Hepatitis B, unlike Hepatitis C, is vaccine preventable. The second major message related to the need of awareness in respect of obesity related fatty liver disease which is affecting more and more children as they adopt westernised lifestyles high on fatty foods and low on activity.
Preventable disease
“Fatty liver is a big concern. However, 60 per cent of it can be prevented by preventing obesity, lipids and diabetes. Liver disease now affects one out of every five persons . Of the 20 per cent liver patients in India, 10 per cent will have a failure. That is about two lakh people annually who will need transplants,” said A.S. Soin, Chairman, Medanta Institute of Liver Transplantation and Regenerative Medicine, Gurgaon, which is among the top five global centres for liver transplant with a load of 250 transplants a year. But most patients of end-stage liver cirrhosis won’t live much even after a transplant. Those whose cancer is detected in stage 1 and 2 will survive with 90 per cent positive result but the problem is non-availability of livers for transplant and dismal levels of liver donation in India. As against 20 per million donations that India needs every year, it gets just 0.01 per million. “Annually, two lakh people need transplants but last year we conducted just about 700. Of these, 680 were living donor liver transplants and the rest were deceased donor liver transplants. In India, the relatives of brain dead people still hesitate to donate organs. Even others are not forthcoming even though one of the two lobes of a liver can be safely and easily donated,” Soin explained. Liver is in fact the only organ than can regenerate and it poses no risk to the donor who has 100 pc survival post-surgery. Any family member can donate. Only, a donor must be aged 18 to 55 years with no previous history of liver disease or alcoholism.
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Do’s & Don’ts for a healthy liver Do’s
Don’ts
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Ask any medic and he will tell you that the liver is the most forgiving organ of the body and unless you injure 80 per cent of it, it won’t even show symptoms of degeneration. But beyond this threshold limit of safety, this very organ will, more often than not, have you stare at sure death.