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An
unseemly row Innocent
lives lost |
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Diplomat’s
ill-treatment
Case for
Delhi meet on Kabul
What’s
there in a number?
Retail FDI can perk up farm growth
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Innocent lives lost
The
terrible collision of an overloaded van carrying children with a truck on Monday morning near Ambala, in which 12 children were killed, was caused by both carelessness and weather conditions. Dense fog hung over the area when the van carrying school children collided, killing the driver of the van and many of the children on the spot. Fog not just reduces visibility but also impairs judgment. Drivers are unable to distinguish between objects which are moving and those which are motionless. They also misjudge their own speed as well as the speed at which other vehicles are being driven. Finally, the perception distortions lead them to misjudge distance and the time they need to bring their vehicles to a halt. Speeding in the fog is often fatal and in case the vehicles are found to have been without fog lights, it would amount to criminal negligence. The Supreme Court’s well-meaning guidelines to enhance safety standards in school buses are of course observed more in their breach. But it is doubtful if they by themselves could have averted the accident. Comfortable seats, seat belts with safe locks, adequate storage space and arm-rest were part of the extensive guidelines. The court had stipulated too that the buses should have first-aid boxes, fire-extinguishers, horizontal grills on windows and speed-governors. They also required the school buses to keep a list of students in the bus along with their blood groups. Above all, the court had insisted that an attendant, preferably a teacher or a parent, be there in the bus to ensure that buses are driven safely. The most important guideline, however, related to the drivers engaged for school buses. The court had emphasised the urgency of hiring trained and experienced drivers and suggested that anyone booked twice for traffic violations like jumping the red light and booked even once for more serious offences like drunken driving, should not be allowed to drive school buses. Words can never adequately voice the anguish over loss of such tender lives. That is why the authorities need to explore the possibility of stopping movement of school buses, whenever the visibility is poor due to fog.
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Diplomat’s ill-treatment
It
is shocking how an Indian diplomat from the Shanghai consulate in China, Mr S. Balachandran, who is a diabetic patient, was not allowed to leave a court room for food and medication for over five hours as a result of which he collapsed just as he left the court room. The diplomat had gone to a city 300 km from Shanghai to provide consular assistance to two Indians who were arrested after their Yemeni employer fled without paying a huge amount due to a Chinese trader. That the Ministry of External Affairs summoned the Chinese Deputy Chief of Mission in New Delhi to protest over the ill-treatment of the diplomat is an apt Indian response to a gross violation of the Geneva Convention by the Chinese whose disregard of human rights is appalling in general. The two Indians for whose release Mr Balachandran was intervening have claimed that they were kidnapped and tortured by traders and local officials for two weeks. If this is true and the methods that were claimed to have been used against them are borne out, it reflects poorly on the local government. The Indian embassy must get to the root of this. Indiscretions do occur sometimes but such cases must be promptly taken up with the host government which may then take corrective action. If, as the two persons claim, they were being victimized for their Yemeni employer’s misdeeds they must be given protection from the enraged traders. But if they were complicit in the denial of dues to the traders they must be dealt with in accordance with law. In any case, they cannot be denied their basic rights to be represented by a lawyer and to be treated with civility. The entire episode of how the diplomat was treated and how the two Indian employees of a Yemeni company were tortured point to the larger question of Chinese human rights abuses which is a continuing source of concern to the free world.
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War does not determine who is right — only who is left. — Bertrand Russell
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Case for Delhi meet on Kabul
During
the last two months in 2011, there were two major international conferences in Istanbul (Turkey) and Bonn (Germany). With the 2014 deadline for the US-led foreign troop withdrawal fast approaching, the international community is frantic about achieving its interests before getting out of Afghanistan. What can India do in this situation? Despite Islamabad’s negative contribution to peace in Afghanistan, there has been an international recognition that Pakistan is a part of the solution. It appears that Pakistan has succeeded in positioning itself as a central piece in the Afghan chessboard. Where has India positioned itself? What roles does it want to play to protect its own interests? What strategies could New Delhi pursue to improve its position in deciding the future of Afghanistan? First, an analysis of where India stands among the international community in deciding the future of Afghanistan. While the US and the rest of the international community appreciate New Delhi’s economic investment in Afghanistan, not many of India’s “strategic partners” in the American and European continents would give a blank cheque. While India has already invested billions of dollars in Afghanistan, and is willing to expand further its political and economic footprints, there is an apprehension. The international hesitation in allowing India to do what it is willing is based on two counts. First, there is an apprehension that India is expanding its intelligence network within Afghanistan to prevent Pakistan from having strategic depth vis-a-vis India. Some even suspect that India is building a coalition within Afghanistan to counter Pakistan’s presence. In short, there is strong suspicion among the international community, and some even openly accuse India of using Afghanistan as a proxy against Pakistan. Second, a substantial section of the international community, including the US, does not want to offend the sentiments of Islamabad and its military by allowing India to have a larger footprint in Afghanistan. The general belief among this section is that Pakistan’s inputs and involvement are much more important to build a stable Afghanistan. This section acknowledges, at times even publicly, that Pakistan has played a negative role in Afghanistan, yet it would want to work with Islamabad. With President Hamid Karzai failing to have a stable government in Afghanistan, the above section considers Pakistan much more important for the future of Afghanistan than any other country. This is why, despite regularly accusing the ISI of using the Taliban and the Haqqani network against the international troops and the Karzai government, they still want to work with Pakistan and are willing to exclude India in this process. Given the importance that Islamabad has succeeded in getting in the estimation of the international community at the cost of reducing the Indian footprint, what can New Delhi do? How can India protect its own interests in Afghanistan and help it to stabilise? A Delhi conference with substantial inputs from regional countries around Afghanistan will help India achieve its objectives and stabilise the Kabul regime for the following reasons. First, in recent months there have been two international conferences — one in Istanbul and the other in Bonn — during the second week of December. Both conferences had been organised by the international community, which would like to protect its own investments in Afghanistan and help Mr Karzai. The primary purpose behind this analysis is not to criticise India for what it has achieved as a result of these two conferences. The analysis is aimed at finding ways and means so that India can achieve its own objectives. Second, a Delhi conference is essential to reach out to the regions and countries surrounding Afghanistan. Most countries of Central Asia, Russia and Iran also have substantial interests in Afghanistan, besides Pakistan and China. New Delhi will not be able to protect its interests or investments in Afghanistan on its own. Besides, India, on its own, could only devise strategies to adapt itself to the changing game rather than ambitiously change the game in Afghanistan. Should India play according to the changing game or plan towards changing the game in Afghanistan? A Delhi conference may help India decide its primary objectives and then achieve them. Iran, Russia and Central Asia, in particular, have substantial interests in what happens in Afghanistan. All these actors have serious reservations about the efforts made by the US and its NATO partners, though they have been taking part in international efforts. Iran is extremely apprehensive of the American interests and presence in Afghanistan. Tehran by now should be convinced that the US troops are not going to leave Afghanistan completely by the end of 2014. There will be a substantial American military presence in Afghanistan, which is not likely to be targeting only the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Tehran has every reason to suspect that the American presence in Afghanistan will be detrimental to its own future. The possibility of Tehran even tactically supporting the Taliban to achieve its short-term objectives cannot be ruled out. Iran may see the Taliban in Kabul as a lesser threat than Mr Karzai collaborating with the US troops. Central Asian countries and communities like the Uzbeks and the Tajiks have their own objectives to achieve in Afghanistan because of historical linkages and the presence of their brethren in that country. None of the Central Asian countries is comfortable with an Afghanistan totally under the control of a Pashtun leadership — Taliban or otherwise — with substantial linkages with Islamabad. Russia also has the same interests and apprehensions in Afghanistan. Third, a Delhi conference, if projected as a complementary process and not in competition with the existing international conferences, would fill the gap in the much-needed regional approach towards stabilising Afghanistan. The international community is keenly looking for alternative approaches. During the recent Istanbul conference there was reluctance towards a regional approach among the Afghan neighbours, primarily because it was seen as an American project. If India has to lead the efforts for an alternative process, which is seen as independent one, the regional countries, including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Iran, along with Russia and Afghanistan, may be favoured. Iran and Russia, in particular, will always be apprehensive of any West-led initiative on Afghanistan. While they may not be too anxious to accept the idea of a Delhi dialogue on Afghanistan, they are likely to be less suspicious about an Indian initiative. As mentioned earlier, if it is projected as a complementary process, even the West may be willing to support such an initiative. For India, a Delhi conference on Afghanistan would provide the much-needed space to work with the neighbours of Afghanistan. From the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline to reviving the old Silk Route, there is much that this conference can focus on like economic, cultural and political issues. Perhaps more on economic and cultural issues and less on political issues, for it should be left to the Afghans to decide what form of government they would like to have. This would not only allow India to work with Afghanistan and its neighbours, but also result in creating regional constituencies within Afghanistan. Pakistan is likely to remain suspicious and may not take part in such an initiative. So would be China. The objective of a Delhi initiative should not be aimed at isolating Pakistan; India needs to play a role if any initiative on Afghanistan has to succeed. So far as the Chinese role and their investments in Afghanistan are concerned, there has been an exaggeration. Will they make use of a regional initiative, or try to scuttle it? The real question is: Will Pakistan be willing to take part in an Indian initiative? Irrespective of how Pakistan behaves, India needs to pursue multiple strategies to protect its interests in Afghanistan. A Delhi conference on the lines of the Bonn and Istanbul conferences may give the much-needed space to India to enlarge its footprint in
Afghanistan. The writer is the Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi.
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What’s there in a number? It
would have remained an ordinary transaction at a grocery shop. But the day had different designs on me. I had bought a few things, and to pay the bill, I took out a Rs 500 note. I handed the currency note that declared, “I promise to pay the bearer the sum of five hundred rupees” to the woman manning (a wrong word for the gender involved) the counter. She checked it the way they always do the high denomination notes, looking for some mysterious clue for its fakeness. Satisfied, she was about to put it in the cash box when her friend, or whoever she was, sitting next to her, nudged her. They beamed a conspiratorial smile at me and again looked at the note, in unison this time. “Is it fake?” I thought and my heart sank a few inches down from its fixed place. I tried to make a quick recall of where I got the note in vain. The cashier asked, “Do you really want to give this note?” “Yeah”, I said, shrugging my shoulders, wishing desperately to be out of the place. “Is there something wrong?” I added meekly. “It is numbered 786, didn’t you see?” “Is it counterfeit?” I asked perplexed “Nooooo, nobody gives away this number, its very lucky!” they chirped. “Oh! Just take the payment, please”, I said relieved. “Didn’t you see Amitabh Bachachan’s ‘Deewar’, his lucky token had this number?” Said the cashier, and quickly added, “I will give you another Rs 500 note to make the payment.” In the meantime, her friend had proactively taken out money from her bag. “I will pay you Rs 600 for this,” she almost thrust the money in my hands. Now, this was getting interesting! My dormant superstitious gene began to raise its head. “Let me check, I might have the required change,” I said and, to my relief, found Rs 344, the amount required to pay the bill. I took back the note with a tinge of awe. All those tales of numerological wonders read in city supplements, bestowed upon page- 3 celebrity flashed before my mind. Ekta Kapoor’s K factor, Suneil Shetty, Rakeysh Omprakash Mehra, Karis(h)ma, Tusshar, Preity, Sonu Niigaam, the list was exhaustive. Inspired and empowered by the numerical power of 786, I changed the spellings of chrysanthemums and dahlias and bougainvilleas, adding extra ‘ees’ and ‘aas’ to give that phonetic impact for extra power. But all the plants remained insensitive to numerology; they offered just the same blossom, in the colours of the seeds sown, at the same usual time. Though I like to be optimistic and do not wish to betray the faith in the miracle of 786 rubbed on to me, after over a year the note bearing 786 number still shows no signs of coming out of its inertia. My bank account shows just what I earn, not a penny more. On the contrary, the denomination of Rs 500 has lost its value, compared to a dollar bill of any “unlucky”
number.
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Retail FDI can perk up farm growth An average farmer of Punjab or Haryana has got expertise on food-grain production system, which he has nicely demonstrated on the ground. Now he is at the crossroads and faces economic stagnation and looks for new avenues. Taking into account the aspect of opening up of the economy, we need to view the things in a diametrically opposite perspective. The current production system is quite rigid and has to be geared up to cater to consumers’ requirements. To capture the need of various sections of society in terms of consumer’s taste, product quality, safety, nutrition etc, the essential services are required to be provided and the existing ones to be upgraded, necessitating the opening of retail chain stores in the state. Therefore, to demonstrate the technical and pricing efficiency, through horizontal and vertical market linkages, harnessing the scale economies appears to be a feasible solution. There is need to highlight possibilities and assess market requirements for boosting the farm sector’s performance. On this pretext, the following specific questions arise: whether the existing structure of agricultural production and marketing is conducive for a second Green Revolution? If not, how and who should come forward to handle this situation? What are the possibilities and directions for vertical integration in terms of value addition in alternative enterprises? Marketing pattern As a food security measure, almost the entire rice and wheat production is procured by the national government at a pre-agreed price from farmers. The market infrastructure was developed to cater to the requirements of foodgrains. A slight increase in production of perishable goods can depress the prices even to the zero level, leaving farmers helpless, which we have been practically witnessing. Thus farmers hesitate to undertake market risks. The system so far has also not felt the need for handling perishable products from the state. Now, with growing consumerism due to the rising disposable income, level of education and urbanisation, and the changing attitude of the younger generation, a consumer-oriented rather than production-based market system is becoming better workable. In view of this, we have already experimented with various alternatives that can come forward and shoulder the responsibility. An average farmer has a small farm and is handicapped by constrains of inadequate resources. Incurring heavy investment with business aptitude is not within his reach. Farmers’ cooperatives have been tried for long but have not been successful due to various reasons, including typical Punjabi psyche and political interference and thus lack initiatives to take up such activities. Autonomous investment is also a remote possibility as the state governments have already washed their hands off with the excuse that they are starved of financial resources, obviously due to various populist measures adopted on different fronts. The initiation of contract farming by roping in private trade was an interesting positive step taken by state governments a few years back. This experiment too is fumbling due to a number of reasons, especially basic structural flaws in the system and over-interference of the government. There has not been even an iota of success whenever a high-level consumers’ organisation had tried to operate in the country. Thus the only ray of hope is investment by big business houses which have already initiated the process of horizontal and vertical market integration in farm products. Let the potential farmers’ organisations and individual farmers also coordinate and compete within the system. Going a step further, the market view should not be limited only to the domestic consumers but also to potential global markets to even out market fluctuations. Public perception By population, India is a big country. There are about 12 million retail outlets in the country which means that for every 90 persons there is one retail shop. The need for a single window to meet the domestic requirements is increasingly felt. A vast majority of the population has small means with low purchasing power. Market requirements of the domestic consumers are diverse as the population has varying income levels, cultures and tastes etc. Most of the production units are also small, scattered and unorganised. Therefore, market channels are generally long and marketing costs and margins are quite high and account for a sizable part of consumers’ cost. The varieties of consumer goods are also not so wide to meet the pocket and taste of consumers. As compared to 80% in the USA, 40% in Thailand and 17% in China, only 4% of the consumption needs are realised through organised retailing in India. Across the commodities traded through such markets, most of these products are directly or indirectly the outcome of the farm sector. A number of chain stores such as Bharti Wallmart, PepsiCo, Reliance, Tata Khet Se etc are coming up in the area as well. An opinion survey of various sections of society about such development has revealed certain issues which may be considered in the light of allowing foreign investment. Investment only in retail trade should be kept confined. Some liberty was taken by MNCs in the past when they entered agro-processing but shifted to soft drinks. Similarly, investment in real estate made by retail stores has resulted in significant gains. As the land prices are booming, the gain from this proposition is sometimes even higher than the trading of goods. Employment of human factor is feared to be getting adversely affected. This was argued by others and countered with the fact that only 8% of the population of India is in retail business as against 20% in the US. Evidently, the supply chain gets shortened but the spread of utilities and services is widened. Disparity in the economy may also widen because small would not be able to compete with big business houses. Experience of other countries indicates that small and ancillary trades coexist and continue to flourish. Establishment of retail store becomes a mini focal point giving birth to a number of small units around. Economic efficiency improves due to large-scale operations, division of labour and mechanical handling. Thus it lowers the cost of operations such as storage, transportation, handling, processing and packing. High selling cost such as advertising, staff salaries, maintaining showrooms could be exploitative for consumers and increase undue costs. However, competition among big business houses themselves and with small traders in terms of price, quality, variety and services is an auto check to improve efficiency, maintain quality and minimise wastage. There is a serious concern of the nations to minimise wastage and spoilage which appears to be better addressed through the development of chain stores. It is an accepted fact that the wastage of perishable goods by public agencies and petty traders is enormous due to poor handling of the produce and lack of suitable infrastructure. Various studies have confirmed 30-40 per cent transit losses in case of fruits and vegetables, which we cannot afford. Having better information about domestic and global market signals and Sanitary & phyto-sanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers of trade (TBT) standards, quality of goods may improve, make crop diversification possible, farm incomes may increase and export of farm goods is likely to go up. The claim of ‘targeting small farmers’ is just not practicable in such a situation. First, almost all farmers are small and further limited by the ceiling on land holdings. Secondly, buyers and sellers both feel convenient by contractual agreements with bigger ones. Moreover, there cannot be any effective check for depriving larger farmers from entering the field. Therefore, growing population, urbanisation, consumerism and changing lifestyle demand no going back from increasing chain stores to the traditional system of petty shop trading. Better services, lower prices, more variety and quality products are expected due to such development. Farmers’ organisations and competitors may come up to balance the ill-effects. The writer is a former Professor and Head, Department of Economics & Sociology, PAU, Ludhiana
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