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More of the same
Tackling sexual crimes |
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Future less risky
Dealing with slowdown
Where less is more!
Will the basket of anti-graft bills work?
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More of the same
It is good to see an 84-year-old warhorse feeling fit and ready for the next electoral battle. The rough and tumble of politics can be tiresome with age, especially in Punjab where political discourse is incomplete without mud-slinging. To his credit, Parkash Singh Badal, the four times Chief Minister, maintains dignity in speech and conduct. Yet he is a shrewd politician. In grooming his son, Sukhbir, as his successor, he sidelined senior leaders of the Shiromani Akali Dal and handed over the party presidency to him so that he could build his own team. It came, therefore, as a surprise that the party is still not confident of projecting the heir apparent as the next Chief Minister and had to fall back on the tried and tested leadership of senior Badal, who is definitely more acceptable than the son. The Akali Dal, it seems, does not want to take any chances. Going by the recent trend in voting, no party is returned to power for a second consecutive term. Besides, Mr Badal alone can deal with the coalition partner, the BJP, whose state leaders had opposed Sukhbir’s elevation to the number two post. In his interview with The Tribune Mr Badal appears to be relying on his government’s performance for winning the January 30 elections. While he has listed some achievements – opening of 70 colleges, recruitment of 1.5 lakh youth, additional power generation and maintenance of communal harmony – he has blamed the Centre for the state’s mounting debt and flight of industry. After initially supporting the Centre’s move to open up multi-brand retail to foreign direct investment, Mr Badal now maintains that it is not in the interest of farmers. Whether the Punjab voters share his views and claims of achievements remains to be seen. Mr Badal has not so far given any agenda for the state’s future. While being confident of getting a fifth term as Chief Minister, he has not unveiled plans for tackling the state’s problems: corruption, red tape, top-heavy administration, sluggish agricultural and industrial growth, to name just a few. Mr Badal has to reinvent himself if he hopes to win at the hustings again. |
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Tackling sexual crimes
In a country where a large number of children face sexual assaults, the need for a strong law to combat sexual crimes against them has long been felt. Once passed, the Protection of Children from Sexual Offences Bill 2011, one hopes, would be able to protect this vulnerable section of the population. The Bill, which was introduced in the Rajya Sabha in March this year, has been cleared by the parliamentary committee. The committee’s rejection of the proposal to treat 16 years as the age of consent for sex and thus not treat consensual sex by youngsters aged between 16 and 18 as an offence is not without reason. The clause regarding consensual sex had anyway come under criticism from certain quarters. Some experts felt that the clause could be misused. This contention finds an echo in the committee’s argument that since those below 18 years are considered minors, the question of consent is irrelevant. While the contentious issue of age of consent needs to be debated, the major thrust should be on how to make the world a safe place for children. Rape is a heinous act and such crimes become doubly abhorrent when perpetrated against children. Appreciably, the Bill not only recognises crimes within households but also a whole range of sexual abuses. Its other provisions regarding special courts and a crime to be considered an “aggravated offence” if the victim is below 12 suggest that the Bill has taken into account several critical factors. The age group of 5 to 12 years is at the maximum risk of abuse. After ironing out the irritants the Bill should be made into a law at the earliest. |
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Future less risky
In a world beset with uncertainty, here comes good news. Those who have set their hearts on the Big Fat Punjabi Wedding now have, by spending just a little more, the option of insuring the wedding and thus saving themselves a fortune in case things don’t work out on D-day. Insurance is a time-honoured tradition and the biggest insurance companies in the world cut their teeth insuring sail ships as they negotiated tricky winds and cunning currents to arrive at destinations way beyond the imagination of most men at that time. Why, in one case, they set sail to India and instead reached a land which became America. Pre-wedding negotiations, too, can be tricky, and then there is the wedding ceremony, the wonderful mela that brings hundreds of people to witness two individuals who would remember this day for the rest of their lives even if they do not go through the excruciating long videos, bulging photo albums and even internet websites devoted to them. Thus it is only expected that someone would fill the gap, and with the insurance sector opening up to new ideas, this was bound to happen. Only the most daring tread where angels fear to go. Naturally, our insurance companies are well equipped to tackle the odds, since they bring to the table a long experience in negotiating the tricky road towards success. Haven’t they been insuring cars and other vehicles driven on Indian roads, by Indian drivers, for a long, long time? It is one thing to quantify and thus insure the vast operation of various players that define an Indian marriage. The interpersonal dynamics that come into play when two people marry each other, and also when two families are joined in marriage through them, however, remain obtuse to even the wisest of men. It is thus not surprising that while weddings can be insured, marriages can’t be. The insurers may be brave, but they are not foolhardy. |
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All the beautiful sentiments in the world weigh less than a single lovely action. — James Russell Lowell |
Dealing with slowdown
The year 2011 has been a pretty unpredictable year. No one knew at the beginning of 2011 that the GDP growth would come down to 6.9 per cent in the second quarter. No one could also predict the scale and intensity of the eurozone crisis. Many external factors plus some domestic policies have led to the slowdown of India’s GDP growth and even the Finance Minister has now conceded that growth may remain around 7 per cent in 2012. To everyone’s dismay, industrial growth shrank in November 2011 by 5 per cent. Most agree that industrial growth has shrunk due to falling investment which can be attributed to the RBI’s monetary policy of hiking interest rates 13 times to keep inflation down. Maybe the RBI, like the central bank of China,, will lower interest rates in 2012. The central banks of all the emerging market economies as well as the European Central Bank are going for easing the liquidity situation in the market for reviving investment and demand. Inflation may also cool off as world commodity prices climb down due to falling demand. The only sector that may grow as before is the service sector. In fact, the service sector has performed well despite the eurozone crisis. In the second quarter of the current fiscal year, the service sector registered a healthy growth of 9.3 per cent. Food inflation could rise again if agricultural growth does not pick up in 2012. Agricultural growth was below the targeted rate and was 3.9 per cent in 2011. The underperformance of agriculture has to be addressed with proper storage and food processing units in every village. While it is true that if Walmart or other supermarket giants had been allowed they would have invested in storage facilities first but it would take time for the entire cold chain to get moving. Indian supermarket giants should be encouraged to do the same in 2012. Unfortunately, India has been caught in the capital flow reversals that are taking place all over the emerging market countries. Investors from industrialised countries are betting more on other developed countries’ stock markets for stability than the riskier emerging markets. As a result of the dollar outflow from the Indian stock markets, the rupee has fallen sharply. Meanwhile, escalated demand for dollars by importers and delays in bringing back dollars by exporters have brought the rupee’s value down further. If the rupee continues to be low against the dollar for a while, another petro price hike could be in the offing. India being a net importer of goods and services will lose more than gain through the rupee’s fall. Exporters would have gained but unfortunately, India’s trade with the EU and the US is at a low point. Perhaps it would help Indian exports in Asian countries as it will enhance the competitiveness of Indian goods. The fiscal deficit will overshoot the target this fiscal year because of the low revenue collection (since businesses are going through a downturn) and government expenditure has already exceeded 75 per cent of the budgeted target in October 2011. The fiscal deficit instead of being 4.6 per cent of the GDP could be around 5.5 per cent. Greater inflows of foreign capital would have helped fund the next year’s expenditure but in the next one year, FDI inflows are not going to increase much given the state of indebtedness in the EU countries and problems in the US economy. A high fiscal deficit combined with a high current account deficit due to continued capital outflows and low export growth will be discouraging for foreign investment. While many may wish, including the government, that this downward trend in economic growth is but an aberration and soon growth will revive to its former 8 to 9 per cent, it may or may not happen in 2012. A lot will depend on the speed at which the EU and the US recover and raise their demand for goods and services. It will also depend on how the government comes out of the policy deadlock regarding various clearances that the industry requires for starting projects. The uncertain environment today is bad for business and many Indian businesses have expressed their desire to move their activities abroad because of the hassles involved of doing business in India. Encouraging Indian industrialists to undertake their business activities at home would be important in 2012. India’s savings rate is still high and domestic demand could remain a key driver of growth. Many of the consumer durable industries like cars and white goods industries are dependent on domestic demand for growth. Consumption demand, however, from the private sector has been slowing down in recent months. Private consumption expenditure growth was moderate at 5.9 per cent in the second quarter from 9 per cent one year ago. Credit growth has remained moderate at around 18 per cent. The government demand has also contracted. India will have to be more dependent on other trading blocs than the US and the EU in the future for maintaining the export momentum. In all, for India to have lower GDP growth will mean a slowdown in the manufacturing sector which is the biggest employer of unskilled labour. Only the service sector will be able to provide jobs which means only educated youth will get employed. There could be a rise in unemployment as a result of slow growth with joblessness increasing to over 10 per cent. In the slowdown scenario, it would be important for the government to protect the poor against job losses, ill-health, lack of skills and homelessness. The food security Bill is a laudable move. The health sector reforms have to be carried forward in 2012 because unless ordinary people have an access to timely medical care, there would be problems in future regarding the availability of cheap and reliable labour. Similarly, other human development indicators have to be improved, especially the quality of education and the reduction of malnourishment among children. India could get stuck at a lower rate of growth because of the hurdles posed by inadequate human development. Next year should be the year of greater investment in human capital and efforts to strengthen the domestic economy. It would also be important to start off some of the big infrastructure projects which will absorb many of the unemployed. Infrastructure will require big funds which can be raised abroad through loans. Moody’s recent upgrade of Indian bonds is a good sign and it also endorses the view that India may be going through a slowdown but it is still an important emerging
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Where less is more!
In the twilight world of Shakespearean witches ‘fair is foul and foul is fair’. But to my surprise, when I ventured into the charmed fairways of golf, I discovered that there too a similar topsy-turvydom prevailed. The world over, one is applauded for a high score in all tests. Scoring a century in cricket is considered a high watermark in a batsman’s career, the number of goals scored in football determines a player’s standing, and so on. But unlike all other games, in golf less is more. You have to keep your score to the minimum if you want to win medals and earn encomium. Great golfers play ‘5 under’ or less. The other day at the end of a tournament, as I was changing my shoes in the change room, a fellow golfer asked me my score. I proudly announced, ‘I have scored a century!’ He frowned and said, ‘You couldn’t be that bad after so many years!’ It dawned on me after a little reflection, however, that indeed the golf principle of ‘less is more’ has a wider application in life. The least number is one, but ‘Number One’ means ‘the best’ and carries the highest regard in the world. The President is called the 1st citizen of the country; the Prime Minister is ‘first among equals’. VIP cars show 0001 on their number plates. People willingly pay enormous sums of money to have this number on their cars. If they can’t get it, they would like to get a single digit or at least a double digit number — the smaller the better. Small is beautiful. That rings a bell. Many years ago I had read a book with that title: ‘Small is Beautiful’ by E.F. Schumacher. I think he had coined the phrase. He gave a call against the growing menace of consumerism and preached the gospel of minimising wants a la Mahatma Gandhi, who used only as much clothing as he could spin on his charkha. Schumacher promoted old lifestyle based on renewable energy - ploughing by oxen and travelling by horse-drawn carriages. He warned that the modern civilization based on fossil fuels like coal, gas and petrol was heading towards catastrophe and cannot last as the bowels of the earth would be soon depleted, and mankind would be left high and dry. Suddenly, the towering skyscrapers on the New York skyline turned into ugly monsters and the sleepy Indian hamlets where farmers trudged behind bullocks a thing of beauty! Big is bore. During our childhood in our naïveté, we aspire to grow big, and are delighted when the number of candles on the birthday cake increases every year. But soon the reality of dwindling youth and the diminishing life tenure dawns and you hanker for younger days. Girls are ecstatic when they reach ‘Sweet Seventeen’, but don’t wish to grow any older. How they wish if by some magic, the number would stay there! They hate it when the number goes on increasing relentlessly, and settle for a lone candle on the birthday cake. Birthdays in old age become a dreadful reminder of the apocalypse, the curtains. Gosh, I am already in the sour
seventies! |
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Will the basket of anti-graft bills work? The current movement for a “Lokpal” has grown out of people’s anger and frustration with inefficiency and maladministration, and not just corruption. The answers, however, are being seen only in terms of a strong law, with repeated assertions that all the change must emanate from the Lokpal Act. It would be a mistake however to burden one law with all the legal solutions. The Government has in fact announced that a basket of anti- corruption and accountability laws have been cleared by the Union Cabinet: The Lokpal Bill, the Grievance Redress Bill, the Judicial Accountability Bill, the Whistle Blower Protection Bill, and the Money Laundering Bill. It is a welcome step that separate legislations and institutions are being set up to cater to a multiplicity of requirements. Now, each one of these needs to be examined for their strengths and weaknesses rather than insisting that one law, and one institution must solve all our problems. We will start with the Citizens Charter and Grievance Redress law. Growing Frustration Despite high levels of anti- corruption rhetoric, more people suffer due to negligence, inefficiency, and irresponsible behaviour of our officials than corruption. We inherited a colonial bureaucracy, and even after many years of independence, the attitude, behaviour and subservience to power of the colonial babu still remains entrenched in our system. The true sense of being a public servant is still missing from the soul of even our development administration. The result is mounting frustration, anger, and unacknowledged and unaddressed grievances. Although a law can’t be the ultimate solution to this situation, one cannot belittle the urgent need to have a citizen’s grievance redress mechanism across the country. Four camps held to register grievances in Delhi recently brought up a plethora of grievances, that were clearly only the tip of the iceberg: Old age, and widow pensions, distribution of rations and relief for riot victims, people rendered homeless because of their jhuggis getting gutted, electricity department’s negligence, poor water and sanitation arrangements in our schools, and little evidence of the active hand of the municipality in public places and colonies of the National Capital and so on. The 1.21 billion Indians need a platform for our grievances to be registered, addressed, and resolved. The reality is that a system that assures us of a hearing, and time bound redress for an “actionable wrong” is completely missing from our offices. Any agency which has the responsibility of policing and investigating a criminal act, has to be endowed with special powers, a set of exacting and meticulous procedures, and expertise of criminal law. It should be a punitive agency with no reparative role. However, for an effective system of grievance redress, we need a very de-centralised, people-friendly and independent system which has to work towards helping the common man or woman resolve complaints. The primary objective of the Lokpal is to investigate and punish, while the Grievance redress mechanism is mandated to provide time bound reparative relief. One of the suggestions has been to have the Lokpal address both corruption and grievances. Bringing grievance redress under the Lopkal, would, however, remain a very superficial measure. It would get marginalised because of the diverse nature and volume of grievances alone. If the Lokpal did give grievances requisite attention, the millions of grievances pouring in on the table of the Lokpal, would render it ineffective. No matter how efficient and disciplined, we cannot ask the army to run civil administration. Not within a democratic framework at any rate. Given that the Lokpal would be required to investigate cases of corruption, grievances would be buried under a mound of files. Both grievances and corruption would be poorly addressed. Marginalising Grievances In such a scenario, grievances would not get the attention they deserve. This is evident in the treatment grievances have received in the anti- corruption dominated Jan Lokpal draft. Under this draft, the “citizens’ charter” is another mechanism of empowering the Lokpal to take punitive (even criminal) action on a complaint of maladministration. Repeated violations are supposed to be “deemed corruption”! Another significant shortcoming in the Jan Lokpal paradigm, is that a citizen’s charter cannot cover all kinds of grievances that exist in every department. Some indication of how citizens’ charter may perform, can be seen from the recently enacted public services Act in different states. The charters’ list is limited and often just a formality. Exclusive dependence on the charters, can only provide a remedy for a small percentage and type of grievances. The cabinet approved Grievance Redress draft has also been tabled in Parliament. It has some important clauses and sections such as a comprehensive and inclusive definition of citizens’ charter and services. It has also incorporated proactive disclosure under the RTI Act as part of its own architecture, finding a way of linking the two Acts. It has included a statement of obligation, bringing under its purview the Corporate sector, NGOs and private bodies which provide services that are generally provided by the government. There are provisions for reservation of SC/ST and women in the Commissions, and same day redress provision for urgent matters. The Bill provides for a “designated authority” (with the powers of civil court) independent from the department. The Ministry made an important clarification on the 23rd of December, that the designated authority would be at the District level, giving rise to the possibility that most grievances would be sorted out at the District level and below. Improve over time However, it still has many problems and weaknesses. It lacks a clear people’s facilitation system independent of the department. It has weak penalty and compensation provisions, where compensation is dependent on the award of a penalty. Many suggestions from the NCPRI and others have been communicated to members of Parliament and the government in this regard. Even so, this Bill is a big step forward with a framework that can be improved through amendments and experience. At one point in time, there seemed to be a consensus that a separate law for grievance redress would be preferable, with the condition that it should be enacted along with the Lokpal. This law will give 1.21 billion people in this country a chance to fight for their entitlements and demand accountability from the bureaucracy. It should not become a victim of politics around the Lokpal. Lokpal for policing? The demand for a strong Lokpal has got confused with creating a strong institution. In fact, accountability to the people is a core principle of any institution in a democracy. An extremely powerful Lokpal, with tenuous accountability mechanisms, can undermine democracy itself. Few people understand that the Lokpal is a criminal investigation agency with enhanced police powers. One very unusual aspect of the Jan Lokpal movement is that, it is a strong people’s movement that has an objective of creating a powerful institution of the State. We might end up putting people even more at the mercy of a huge new police force. Some of these concerns are underscored when one looks at the latest Lokpal draft placed in Parliament. The Jan Lokpal movement was premised on three important kinds of demands: independence, increased power, and increased scope for the Lokpal. Since it is now clear that the judiciary, whistleblower protection, and grievances are not going to be under its ambit, it is worth examining this Bill in the light of each of these principles. Independence Selection: The very first question that arises when it comes to any powerful office, is the selection of the person- the Lokpal in this case. The selection committee as determined in this Bill has an imbalance in favour of Government nominees. Three out of the five, are people who could tilt in favour of the ruling party: The Prime Minster, the Speaker of the Lok Sabha, and an eminent jurist selected by the President. While it is true that these are senior people who should be expected to make non- partisan selections, there is a legitimate fear that the selection committee could pack the Lokpal with government nominees. Removal: An application for removal is again dependent on a reference made by the President, which means that the independence of the process of removal could be compromised at its initial stage itself. The CBI: The selection committee for the Director CBI has been changed and made more bipartisan and balanced. However, the big hope and demand of freeing the CBI from control of the government has not fully materialised. It is clear that the Government, (and in fact most of the political establishment) is not willing to let go of the CBI completely. Removing Sanction: Doing away with the notorious single directive, and all requirements of sanction for investigation and prosecution, is a big step forward. It is also a fact the “superintendence” over the investigation process in cases where the Lokpal refers a case to the CBI as provided in this Bill, will give it powers to try and ensure that the investigation is not influenced by the political establishment. Investigating Agencies The Lokpal Bill does provide powers to the Lokpal/Lokayukta and its investigating agencies. The lack of accountability of these agencies are, however, issues of great concern. The power to search, seize, confiscate and attach property; to deem any property not on the list of declared items of the public servant to be deemed to have been acquired through a corrupt practice; the power to suspend and transfer a public servant being investigated, will make this one of the most powerful agencies in the country. The truth is that in India, people receive their punishment during the trauma of an investigation process. Even remote functionaries of this new establishment will therefore have the power to silently threaten people into submission, open the doors for corruption, and personal vendetta. Under such circumstances, political targeting becomes even easier and more difficult to prove. In our current enthusiasm for building powerful “independent” technocracies, we might realise too late that the more independent and powerful the agencies are, the less accountable you can make them. From the PM to the peon Perhaps the area where the Government has shown greatest agreement with the Jan Lokpal draft, is in the scope and coverage given to the Lokpal / Lokayuktas. While it is very good that in one stroke everyone from the PM to the peon in the States and the Central Government have been brought under purview of the Act, this extensive overreach is likely to be its nemesis. There is no practical way in which this new institution is going to be able to meet the standards of criminal investigation, and yet provide reach to every remote part of the country to take complaints against the smallest of employees. Covering and uncovering: The government in its wisdom (or guile?) has added the most expansive (and ridiculous) definition of an NGO to be covered by the Prevention of Corruption Act, so that any registered or unregistered group that gathers money from the public will be liable for investigation and prosecution. This has very grave implications for human rights groups, and other people based activist groups, but how can any of us object, when we are asking for every other “public” functionary to be covered ! Making Lokpal accountable The Government seems to have done just what many of us feared- used civil society pressure to give extraordinary powers and scope to a police investigation agency, retain crucial powers for itself, and brought all potential opponents under its scope. It is imperative that the citizens of India urgently start thinking about placing controls and effective accountability mechanisms over the agency. That, in any case, is going to be a very difficult challenge. Nikhil Dey is a social activist associated with the National Campaign for People’s Right to Information. Panini Anand runs a web site called Pratirodh.com |
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