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Clouds of suspicion
‘Sweet Seventeen’ |
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Handling the Baloch Pakistan tries new strategy in vain Pakistan Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani perhaps thinks that a few sops from him will make the people of Balochistan forget the injustice done to them by Islamabad for a long period. That is why, as part of his new strategy, he has come out with certain measures to reduce the presence of the Pakistan Army in the restive province.
Why Central Asia matters
Soldiering for village uplift
China claims in its latest white paper on defence that it will never seek hegemony or undertake aggression. It stands for reinforcing friendship and cooperation with its neighbours. Yet, the fact remains that it is committed to vastly expand strategic capability and reach of its armed forces through expansive modernisation and military-diplomatic engagement. This has serious ramifications for stakeholders in the geo-political arena
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Clouds of suspicion THE cloud of suspicion that has gathered over the co-chairman of the Lokpal Bill drafting committee, Mr Shanti Bhushan, first on the basis of a controversial CD that he claims was doctored to defame him and then on two allegedly-dubious land allotments to him and his younger son Jayant Bhushan in U.P. has somewhat dented the credibility of social activist Anna Hazare’s campaign against corruption at least for now. Even granting that there are powerful forces working to malign the civil society campaign that led to the constitution of a joint committee on the Lokpal bill of ministers and civil society representatives, and that Mr Shanti Bhushan’s principal adversary Amar Singh, formerly of the Samajwadi Party, is no knight in shining armour, there is no denying that the seeds of doubt have been sown in the public mind. Well-intentioned as Anna Hazare is, he needed to ensure that all five civil society representatives on the joint panel were not only completely above board but were also seen to be so. While the first allegation of a conversation between Mr Shanti Bhushan and Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav in which the former was purported to have told Mr Yadav that his son Prashant Bhushan (who is also on the drafting panel) could fix a judge for Rs 4 crore did not apparently cut much ice, the second one falls in a different category. Though denying any wrong-doing, Mr Shanti Bhushan has acknowledged that the allotment letters for two U.P. government plots of 10,000 square metres each were given to the Bhushans without an auction or a draw of lots on payment of 10 per cent of the price of Rs 3.5 crore. That these plots were under-priced in relation to their market value is a matter of debate now and the whole issue needs to be examined thoroughly post-haste. It would be a tragedy indeed if the process of drafting the Lokpal bill is hampered or derailed as a result of these controversies. The people of this country are watching zealously. Anna Hazare’s movement for reform in the system must be taken to its logical conclusion, come what may and any proven misconduct or impropriety must be sternly dealt with, regardless of whether the wrong-doer is a government representative or a civil society one.
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‘Sweet Seventeen’
IN the normal course, the launch of the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) on Wednesday should have been a routine affair, considering that 16 other launches before it had been successful. In fact, only the first launch before that – way back in 1993 – was a failure and since then PSLV had become the workhorse of ISRO. What made every scientist watch the launch with bated breath was the fact that the last two launches of the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) last year were failures and had anything gone wrong with the PSLV as well, it would have meant a serious loss of face. However, nothing of that sort happened and the PSLV put three satellites in orbit in a copybook fashion, with Director of the Liquid Propulsions Systems of ISRO S. Ramakrishnan describing the success as a “sweet seventeen” (referring to the 17th successful launch). This morale-booster will hopefully help ISRO headed by K. Radhakrishnan in removing the glitches in the GSLV – which can carry much heavier payloads into the orbit. In the GSLV, the top two stages of the PSLV have been replaced with a cryogenic stage and the latter’s six solid-propellant strap-ons have been replaced with four Vikas-engine based ones. What must be remembered is that the first two launches of the Augmented Satellite Launch Vehicle (ASLV) in late 1980s were also failures, but contributed considerably to the success of the PSLV which followed. The PSLV will provide vital information about the natural resources, the state of snowcap and glaciers, changes in coastal areas and water bodies, among other inputs. It is a “global mission” indeed, considering that the remote-sensing images of the Resourcesat-2 satellite that it has put in orbit would be used by countries across the world. The PSLV is now the most reliable and cost-effective rocket in the world. Three more launches of it are scheduled this year, to be followed by a launch of the
GSLV.
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Handling the Baloch
Pakistan
Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani perhaps thinks that a few sops from him will make the people of Balochistan forget the injustice done to them by Islamabad for a long period. That is why, as part of his new strategy, he has come out with certain measures to reduce the presence of the Pakistan Army in the restive province. He announced recently that the plan to set up four new cantonments in Balochistan would not be implemented. To ease he unemployment situation, there is a plan to recruit over 5000 young men in the armed forces. Besides this, the Frontier Corps, a paramilitary force, will replace the army units deployed to maintain law and order in Sui and Gwadar, the two most sensitive towns of Balochistan. General Kayana also promised to establish a few more technical institutions besides the one he inaugurated in the port city of Gwadar. All these measures, however, are unlikely to help win over the Balochs, who refuse to take seriously any promise by the Pakistan establishment owing to a long history of denial and suppression of their urges. They distrust the Frontier Corps as much as they do the Army. It is the Frontier Corps which has been actively involved in the operations against Baloch nationalists and is mainly responsible for a large number of cases of disappearance of Baloch political activists. The people of Balochistan need a firm promise that they will never be exploited by Islamabad, and a mechanism must be put in place to implement such a pledge. They have a long list of grievances, which include the neglect of Balochistan by Islamabad in different areas of activity, and the use of the province’s natural resources for the development of other provinces, mainly Punjab. They have been dealt with mercilessly whenever they raised their voice against the denial of justice to them. They hate the Punjabi-dominated Pakistan Army more than any other institution because it has never shown concern towards their plight. General Kayani will have to go deeper into the Baloch issue if he is serious about establishing peace in the largest and resource-rich province of Pakistan.
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I think that we may safely trust a good deal more than we do. — Henry David Thoreau
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Why Central Asia matters Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Kazakhstan is a reminder of how high India’s stakes are in Central Asia for its foreign policy priorities. While Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev needed legitimacy for his re-election victory that has been criticised in the western capitals, for New Delhi there are real issues in that part of the world that concern its national security and economic growth. Not surprisingly, the two main areas that were given serious consideration were the civilian nuclear cooperation pact and the situation in Afghanistan. New Delhi and Astana signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, which provides a legal framework for cooperation in this field, including fuel supply, joint mining of uranium, reactor safety mechanisms and construction and operation of nuclear power plants. Mr Nazarbayev also affirmed that his nation was on course to fulfil its commitment of supplying 2100 tonnes of uranium to India by 2014. On Afghanistan, the two sides agreed that “it was essential that renewed efforts were made to sufficiently build up the capacity of the Afghan National Security Forces”. President Nazarbayev won his nation’s overwhelming approval in the presidential election held in early April with more than 95.5 per cent of the ballots cast, but lost the vote of confidence he sought from the world community. The 70-year-old leader, who has been President for 20 years, won another five-year term — with a voter turnout of 90 per cent — after elections held two years ahead of time to lengthen his time in office. The elections were widely considered a sham as an absence of opposition candidates and a vibrant political discourse had resulted in a non-competitive environment. Mr Nazarbayev has ruled since 1989, when Kazakhstan was part of the Soviet Union and he was its party secretary. He is the country’s only directly elected official. His domination has been so complete that no serious political competition has emerged and so adroit that much of the population reveres him. Kazakhs credit him with keeping their country protected from the turmoil that has roiled other Central Asian nations such as Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Tajikistan endured a costly civil war, and Uzbekistan, where the President is as long serving but far more ruthless, has suffered civil strife. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Astana gave Mr Nazarbayev a much needed opportunity to showcase his international acceptability as the leader of a strategically vital state in Central Asia. Major powers have competed for influence in Central Asia since the 19th century and that “Great Game” seems to be back with a bang. The importance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) that has evolved into a forum for discussion on regional security and economic issues cannot be overstated in this context. It has become even more important post–September 11, 2001, because growing ethnic nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism is a major cause of concern for Russia, China and Central Asian states. Russia and China have been successful in using the strong aversion of the United States to terrorism after September 11 for their own ends to tackle Islamic insurgency within their territories. In the post–9/11 environment, the SCO serves as a means to keep control of Central Asia and limit US influence in the region. In fact, the SCO denounced the misuse of anti-terror war to target any country and threw its weight behind the UN in an attempt to show its disagreement with the US-led war in Iraq. India’s growing interests in Central Asia are well-recognised. There is a growing convergence between the US and Indian interests, especially their reluctance to see the region fall under the exclusive influence of Russia or China. India was worried in the 1990s when Russian influence in Central Asia weakened substantially with a commensurate rise in Chinese influence. This negatively impacted upon Indian threat perceptions which stabilised only after the growing US presence in the region since 2001. India views itself as a stabiliser and security provider in Central Asia and with its growing economic clout, an attractive economic power for the region. India’s interest in securing reliable energy supplies and trade through Central Asia remains substantial. There is a seamless logical web from the objective of ensuring Central Asian stability and India’s voice there to the conclusion that India must also ensure reliable energy access to oil and gas sources originating in Central Asia. The requirements of energy security also postulate a continuing positive relationship with Moscow and friendly ties with all the Central Asian states. India must create firm ties among the energy exporting states of Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and, if possible, Turkmenistan. It should be no surprise then that India’s ties with the regional states are growing. Moreover, the imperatives of getting Afghanistan right are stronger than ever today when the situation is rapidly deteriorating. India had opened its air base in Ayni, Tajikistan, in 2002 to guard against growing instability in the region though nothing much has happened on that front for long. India’s ties with regional states are growing and moderate Islam of the region makes it imperative for India to engage the region more substantively. Other powers, barring China, have recognised this reality and have sought to harness India towards achieving common goals. Russia, for example, supports Indian membership in the SCO and has talked about the possibility of India participating in the Collective Security Treaty Organization. A great power competition in Central Asia will make it harder for India to pursue its interests in the region. As such, it becomes imperative for Indian diplomacy to work towards major power cooperation to bring some measure of stability to Afghanistan as well as the larger Central Asian region. The Prime Minister has made a good start by visiting Kazakhstan, but the region should not now slip off India’s
radar. The writer teaches at King’s College, London.
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Soldiering for village uplift HIS demeanor and emphatic, measured speech have not changed a whit since I first and last met him in 1989. The men I once commanded were from the Pune-Sattara-Ratnagiri region and in moments of informal interaction they would often talk of Anna “Sahib” who had led his village from dire poverty to assured prosperity. Traditionally, soldiers reserve the “Sahib” appellation for their officers and JCOs only; so who was Anna? Well, he was one of the several thousand vehicle drivers of the Indian army. During the 1965 Indo-Pak war he had a close call with death. His was one of the 15-odd lorries ferrying ammunition in the Amritsar sector when this convoy was strafed by PAF Saber-jets. All the lorries exploded, except Naik Anna Hazare’s. When he regained composure, he had a divine vision; “Bhagwan boley too ja, apney gaon ki seva kar”. And over the next two decades, village Raleagan Siddhi became the beneficiary of “faith moving mountains”. Short of outright deifying him, his ideas and guidance were accepted by Raleagan citizens as “Dharma”. The women of the village emerged unconditionally empowered and enjoyed vis-à-vis their menfolk the Orwellian status: “All animals are equal but some are more equal than the others!” No more pregnancies after the second child and freedom to acquire skills both in aid of the community and their households. Land holdings were miniscule but the collective agricultural output increased phenomenally because rain-fed cultivation was replaced by assured, well-water irrigation. Consumption of alcohol was ruthlessly rooted out and with the combined, energized labour force, open wells were dug and a water-usage roster was drawn for each family based on their acreage under tillage. Every house became a brick and concrete structure with piped drinking water and cooking gas from two community sized, bio-gas plants, at fixed times. Community toilets were clustered around the bio-gas plants, the human faces supplementing its “gobar” feed-stock. Kitchen waste was dumped into community compost-pits. Anna Sahib was able to convince the Houses of Tata and Kirloskar of the viability of his mission and obtain interest-free loans as also irrigation lift-pumps and diesel generators at concessional rates. Loan instalments were honoured post the Kharif and Rabbi harvests; the last being in 1986 ! Onions and pulses were the main cash crops. In 1986, the produce earned close to a whopping 2.5 lakh rupees. A Cooperative Gramin Bank was created and staffed exclusively by the Raleagan women. Each family had fixed deposits of five to thirty thousand rupees by 1989. I cannot recall how the school was funded but free and compulsory education was provided to each child up to matriculation. At least two able-bodied youth enrolled in the Army each year. I shared this experience with the late General B C Joshi and suggested that the Army ran an orientation course, for soldiers about to retire under Anna Hazare’s aegis. The General visited Raleagan and launched the initiative with the hope that many more soldiers would replicate the Raleagan template in their
villages.
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China claims in its latest white paper on defence that it will never seek hegemony or undertake aggression. It stands for reinforcing friendship and cooperation with its neighbours. Yet, the fact remains that it is committed to vastly expand strategic capability and reach of its armed forces through expansive modernisation and military-diplomatic engagement. This has serious ramifications for stakeholders in the geo-political arena
Inside the Dragon’s fire-breathing mindset
TWO aspects in China’s National Defence – 2010, a white paper issued by its state information machinery on March 31 2011, attract attention. The first is the emphasis it lays on exploitation of the information spectrum or “informationalisation” as the paper calls it, in the pursuit of military objectives. The other aspect is the chapter devoted to “military confidence building” that details its military-diplomatic engagement with other countries, many of which lie beyond its immediate neigbourhood. Like most government documents meant for the public domain, the paper reiterates much of what is already known, but nonetheless offers a glimpse into the policy, doctrinal approach and emerging trends in the world’s second largest war machine and what many experts say poses the biggest challenge not only for India, but also for many other countries. The paper emphasizes the Chinese military’s rapid transformation into a lean, agile and integrated force, moving away from its earlier focus on quantity and manpower to technology, quality and efficiency capable to providing a long reach in a short time. Information, particularly real-time information, is the key to empowerment, dominance and success, both in war and peace. It involves not only one’s ability to communicate effectively vertically and laterally across military echelons as well as other vital institutions, but also security of information and communication networks while at the same time possessing adequate capability to penetrate, manipulate and demolish the adversary’s information structure so as to cripple his functioning. A large chunk of the information structure, interlinking a host of agencies upon which the day-to-day functioning of the nation depends lies in the realm of cyberspace, which remains highly vulnerable as some recent incidents in peacetime have revealed. Military and strategic networks are also not immune. Engaging in military confidence building, which includes strategic consultation and dialogues in the field of security, border area confidence building measures, cooperation on maritime security, regional security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific theatre and military exchanges with other countries indicates China’s growing confidence and influence in geopolitics and its desire to expand its footprint on the global security scenario. China has established mechanisms for strategic consultations with 22 countries, some of which do not see eyeball to eyeball with India on several issues.
Security Situation and National Defence Policy The international situation, the paper states, is currently undergoing profound and complex changes, with the progress toward economic globalisation, informationisation of society and a multi-polar world is irreversible. The current trend toward peace, development and cooperation is irresistible, but international strategic competition and contradictions are intensifying, global challenges are becoming more prominent, and security threats are becoming increasingly integrated, complex and volatile. The world on the whole remains peaceful and stable, but deep-seated contradictions and structural problems behind the international financial crisis have not been resolved. Economic recovery remains fragile and imbalanced. Security threats posed by global challenges as terrorism, economic insecurity, climate change, nuclear proliferation, insecurity of information, natural disasters, public health concerns, and transnational crime are on the rise. Traditional security concerns blend with non-traditional ones and domestic concerns interact with international security ones, making it hard for traditional security approaches and mechanisms to respond effectively to the various security issues. Though generally stable, Asia-Pacific security is becoming more intricate and volatile with regional pressure points dragging on without any solutions. There is tension on the Korean Peninsula. The situation in Afghanistan remains serious. Political turbulence persists in some countries. Ethnic and religious discords are evident. Disputes over territorial and maritime rights flare up occasionally. And terrorist, separatist and extremist activities run amok. Profound changes are taking shape in the Asia-Pacific strategic landscape. China, the paper states, is in a critical phase of the building of a moderately prosperous society, and is confronted by more diverse and complex security challenges. It has vast territories and territorial seas, thereby facing heavy demands in safeguarding national security. It implements the military strategy of active defense, adheres to the principles of independence and self-defense, strengthens the construction of its armed forces and that of its border, territorial sea and territorial air defenses, and enhances national strategic capabilities. Stating that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are destined to “ultimate reunification”, the paper adds that China’s national defence is also tasked to oppose and contain the separatist forces for “Taiwan independence,” crack down on separatist forces for “East Turkistan independence” and “Tibet independence”.
Modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army To meet the new and changing needs of national security, the PLA, according to the paper, accentuates modernisation from a higher platform. It strengthens the building of a new type of combat capability to win local wars in conditions of informationisation, strengthens the composite development of mechanisation and informationisation with the latter as the leading factor for raising its fighting capabilities and enhancing fire power, mobility, protection and support. In line with the strategic requirements of mobile operations and tri-dimensional offense and defence, the Chinese army has emphasised the development of new types of combat forces, optimised organisation and structure, strengthened military training in conditions of informationisation, accelerated digitised upgrading and retrofitting of weaponry, deployed new weapon platforms, and significantly boosted capabilities in long-distance maneuvers and integrated assaults. Artillery and armoured components are developing precision operations capability with integrated reconnaissance, control, strike and assessment elements. Other arms and services are being upgraded into multi-functional support forces for use in war, peace and military operations other than war. The Navy endeavors to accelerate the modernisation of integrated combat forces, enhance capabilities in strategic deterrence and counterattack, conducting operations in distant waters and in countering non-traditional threats. The air force, the paper claims, is working to ensure a combat force structure that focuses on air strikes, air and missile defence, and strategic projection, to improve leadership and command system and build up an informationised, networked base support system. It conducts training on confrontation between systems in complex electromagnetic environments and different tactical contexts. The Second Artillery Force, PLA’s strategic missile component, strives to improve its capabilities in rapid reaction, penetration, precision strike, damage infliction, protection, and survivability, while steadily enhancing its capabilities in strategic deterrence and defensive operations.
Informationisation, Joint
Operations and Manpower Information warfare and joint operations are the current buzzwords in military affairs globally. In this context the paper states that the PLA’s fighting capabilities in conditions of informationisation have increased and significant progress has been made in building information systems for reconnaissance and intelligence, command and control, and battlefield environment awareness. Information systems have been widely applied in logistics and equipment support. A preliminary level has been achieved in interoperability among command and control systems, combat forces, and support systems, making intelligence distribution, command and guidance more efficient and rapid. The paper adds that the PLA takes joint operation systems as the focal point of its modernisation and preparations for military struggle, and strives to enhance fighting capabilities based on information systems. It has improved joint support mechanisms, enhanced IT-based integrated support, and established a basic integrated support system linking strategic, operational and tactical levels. While the complement of new-mode and high-caliber military personnel who can meet the needs of informationisation has been steadily enlarged, the PLA is also laying stress on the training of commanding officers for joint operations and high-level experts in technological innovation. Under its strategic project for talented individuals, it cultivates a contingent of commanding officers, staff officers, scientists, technical experts and non-commissioned officers as joint operation commanders, informationisation professionals and experts in operating and maintaining new types of equipment. The PLA is improving the quality and optimising the composition of weaponry and equipment. While already planning the development of future weapons and equipment, it is using advanced and mature technologies to retrofit existing systems to upgrade their comprehensive performance. It is strengthening logistics systems and revamping capabilities in managing, maintaining and supporting equipment by applying modern management techniques, integrating systems and outsourcing services. Plans for wartime troop mobilisation have been improved and the reserve force has been strengthened.
The Implications While underscoring the fact that China’s armed forces are on a major modernisation drive and revamping their organisational structure to meet its perceived national security interests, the paper harps that China’s defence policy is defensive in nature. It will never seek hegemony, nor will it adopt the approach of military expansion nor or in the future, no matter how its economy develops. In a self-complimentary mode, the paper claims that strengthened coordination and cooperation with major traditional powers and emerging countries, reinforced good-neighborly friendship and practical cooperation with neighboring countries, and extended mutually benefiting cooperation with other developing countries. It further states that China will hold high the banner of peace, development, cooperation and endeavor to foster, together with other countries, an international security environment of peace, stability, equality, mutual trust, cooperation. For India, which does not feature in the part concerning regional security cooperation but gets a passing reference in sections devoted border area meets, security dialogues and military exchanges, China’s claims on peaceful co-existence and mutual trust would sound hollow. Chinese claims on Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh are provocative, border disputes remain unsolved, military incursions continue and the Sino-Pakistan strategic collusion in military and nuclear fields is a cause for concern. As China marches ahead in its ability to project force beyond its borders to protect its interests and, in its apparent keenness to employ military might to support politico-diplomatic maneuvers and economic initiatives, it poses a huge challenge for stakeholders in the global power play arena, particularly the Asia-Pacific region. India has a mammoth task at hand on the political, diplomatic, economic and military fronts if it is to rise to the occasion and secure its interests. Though the paper is devoid of specifics about military strength and weapons and reveals little of strategic or tactical significance, its the intents and not the contents that matter. India will have to watch and analyze the Dragon’s moves very carefully. Working towards expanding its global footprint while hemming in India, there is little doubt that China will become more assertive and tougher to deal with in future.
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