The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Unmasking terror links
Charges made in a US court have lessons for India

The chilling details revealed in a Chicago court regarding David Coleman Headley’s involvement in the 26/11 terror attack on Mumbai underscore the global nature of contemporary terror and the sophistication acquired by terror groups in executing their diabolical plans from foreign lands. The arrest of Headly, his Pakistani-Canadian co-conspirator Tahawwur Hussain Rana and two more men of Pakistani origin in Italy had earlier unmasked the extensive terror links. Prosecutors in the US have now officially charged Headley with conducting surveillance of targets in Mumbai for over two years and with supplying videotapes to terror groups based in Pakistan. It has also been confirmed that the plan to attack Mumbai was hatched several years before it was finally executed. Headley, an American citizen of Pakistani origin, was commissioned to do the surveillance in 2005; he changed his name from Dawood Gilani to David Headley in 2006, the year when he also opened an office in Mumbai. During his two-year long stay in Mumbai, he visited Pakistan no less than five times without apparently arousing any suspicion in the mind of Indian Immigration or Intelligence officials.

Even more alarming is the disclosure that Headley was reporting to a retired Major of the Pakistani Army, identified as Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed, who acted as the conduit and communicator. The Chicago court has now been informed that the Pakistani army officer had even escorted Headley to the FATA region of Pakistan to meet Ilyas Kashmiri of HuJI to prepare for another terror attack in Denmark. India’s decision to involve the US FBI in the investigation, soon after the Mumbai attack, was criticised in some quarters. But developments this week would seem to have vindicated that stand. With overwhelming evidence gathered by investigators about the involvement of another prominent Pakistani, who is being identified by US prosecutors only as “A” , it is hoped that Pakistan would cooperate with India and the US to bring all the players to book.

The ease with which Headley obtained visa to travel to India and set up shop in Mumbai has already caused considerable concern. The disclosure that he changed his name from Dawood Gilani to David Headley in 2006, which was overlooked or missed by the Indian establishment, is bound to cause even more concern. The more dramatic or damaging information would obviously have been kept secret. But with every country having a stake in putting an end to terror, global cooperation and intelligence-sharing must improve to give a fighting chance to peace.

Ludhiana unrest
Socio-economic reasons added fuel to fire

Now that the Ludhiana storm has abated somewhat, it is time to take a dispassionate look at the reasons behind the outpouring of migrants’ anger. Fortunately, there was no local-versus-outsider angle to it, as is the case in Maharashtra thanks to the Shiv Sena and the MNS. But the abominable socio-economic conditions in which the migrant workers live in Ludhiana contributed largely to the eruption. The industrial town is home to some of the richest persons in the region. But it also has a large populace of migrant labour which barely ekes out a living. This contrast can magnify the feeling of deprivation anywhere. What made matters worse was that the labourers were deprived of their meagre earnings by gangs of robbers time and again. The police tended to look the other way, fanning the grouse of the hapless labourers. When the policemen allegedly misbehaved with those who went to lodge a complaint, instead of nabbing the culprits, the matter came to a head. Protesters damaged private and public vehicles, and disrupted road and rail traffic.

As if that was not enough, allowing the head of a controversial dera to hold a congregation in the city added fuel to the fire. Members of some Sikh organisations launched violent protests in some parts of the city.The district administration in view of the violence cancelled permission for the second day of the congregation, besides imposing curfew in the city as a preventive and precautionary measure. This incident had nothing to do with the protests by the migrants, but the two got interlinked because this particular dera has a large number of followers among the labourers.

More than finding out who is right and who is wrong, it is more important to maintain the peace somehow. That will be possible only if all political parties refrain from playing the communal card at the drop of a hat. Punjab has suffered incalculable damage because of such polarisation during the terrorism days. All attempts should be made to ensure that there is no repetition.

Thought for the Day

This is no time for making new enemies. — Voltaire (before his death)

ARTICLE

The Obama strategy
Time for India-US counter-terrorism initiative
by K. Subrahmanyam

In the new Af-Pak strategy announced by President Obama on December 1, most of the attention of both US and international strategists has been focused on his fixing a date for beginning the withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan after the surge to be effected in the spring and summer of 2010. That led to the general conclusion that if the Taliban were to lie low till after the American withdrawal is completed they will be able to reoccupy Afghanistan. Consequently, the strategy was ridiculed, overlooking the fact that the national security team of the US President had worked on it for weeks and the President himself had spent days deliberating it.

It should have been noticed that in his speech, while drawing attention to the continuing threat posed to the US by the terrorist groups operating in Pakistan, emphasising the need for a common strategy on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, making a reference to the inability of tackling the situation in Afghanistan without doing the same in Pakistan and, above all, emphasising the offer of long-term partnership with Pakistan, the President was silent on the strategy to be adopted to fight the terrorist groups which have safe havens in Pakistan. This should have alerted strategic commentators that the major part of the strategy relating to Pakistan had been deliberately withheld by the President because of Pakistani sensitivities.

The superficial commentaries on the Obama strategy reminded one of the strategic forecasts in India just before the First Gulf War when it was confidently predicted that there would be an unacceptable stream of body bags coming home to the US and Saddam Hussein’s Republican Guards armoured divisions would offer very stiff resistance to US forces. This did not happen that way. In October 2001 our commentators again predicted that US operations in Afghanistan would meet the same results as the Soviet operations in that country in the eighties. Again they were proved wrong. That did not deter them from predicting a long and bitter resistance invading US forces by the Iraqi army in 2003.The Iraqi army was defeated in a few days though the US leadership committed fundamental mistakes in handling post-war Iraq. Once again the same mindset does not differentiate between the political mistakes committed by the Bush administration and permissiveness extended to Musharraf and the military strategy now being worked out.

While political mistakes may yet take place in handling the situation in the Af-Pak area, it is necessary to be realistic about the military dimensions of the proposed operations. They are likely to have serious implications for India. That should have been the primary concern of our strategic commentators.

President Obama is reported to have decided on a rapid surge of 30,000 additional troops and this is to be completed by the beginning of summer. If so, there has to be a massive logistic support operation that should be undertaken simultaneously. Will it be through Pakistan running the risks of disruptive attacks by the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban against whom the build-up is aimed. Or through Russia and Central Asian republics? Will Pakistan, as a partner of the US, be able to stand by and allow the likely attacks to take place?

The New York Times of December 7 carries an article which confirms an earlier Washington Post article of November 30 that prior to the announcement of the strategy on December 1, US National Security Adviser General Jones carried a personal message to Mr Zardari from Mr Obama that if Pakistan did not act aggressively against five terrorist groups (Al-Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, the Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Haqqani network and the Pakistani Taliban) the US will use more force from the Afghan territory by way of drone attacks and operations by US Special Forces. Already in the Pakistani media there are mentions of likely drone strikes in Balochistan where Afghan Taliban operate.

Mr Obama’s letter specifically mentioned that any ambiguity in the relationships between the Pakistan Army and the five terrorist groups could not be ignored. In these circumstances, our attention should be focused not on the beginning of withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in July 2011 but also the decision that the Pakistan Army is being asked to take to fight to disrupt, dismantle and defeat the five terrorist organisations which were originally nurtured by the Pakistani Army and its ISI.The Pakistan Army has initiated a campaign against the Pakistani Taliban and is yet to make a decision to fight the other four terrorist organisations.

The campaign against the Pakistani Taliban has already resulted in retaliatory attacks on major Pakistani cities — Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Lahore, etc. If the Army takes on the other four the retaliatory attacks are likely to increase. The American forces reinforced by the surge are likely to use their superior firepower to push the Afghan Taliban into their safe havens in Pakistan. They expect Pakistan to take on the Taliban falling back into the Pakistani territory under threat. If the Pakistan Army fails to do so they will use drone strikes and their own special forces. In such circumstances, the terrorist forces may fall back into further interior areas. They may also launch revenge attacks on Pakistani cities and military targets to punish the Pakistan Army for its cooperation with the US.

Given this scenario, the US authorities, including Defence Secretary Robert Gates, expect that terrorist organisations like Al-Qaeda and the Lashkar-e-Toiba may launch a major terrorist strike against India to trigger an India-Pakistan war that may forestall action against them. While the US authorities expect the terrorist organisations to resort to this stratagem, the Pakistan Army also may resort to the same trick to provoke India into a confrontation and use it as an excuse not to take action against terrorist organisations they had nurtured, as being insisted on by the US. Such a confrontation with India will be popular in Pakistan and may help to unite the country, including the jehadis.

Therefore, the next few months are extremely vulnerable for India. We have vulnerabilities in respect of sleeper jehadi cells planted by Pakistan in our country, terrorist attacks by land, sea and air by Pakistani terrorist teams, Maoists whom the Pakistani ISI could have cultivated and the secessionists in the North-East with whom the ISI has been in touch in Bangladesh

Already, a great deal of cooperation and information sharing exist between the agencies of India and the US. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Obama in their joint statement agreed to establish a counter-terrorism cooperation initiative. That has to be acted upon without delay.

MIDDLE

Last letter or will?
by Brig A. N. Suryanarayanan

While reading Jeffrey Archer’s recent book “Paths of Glory”, I came across a conversation during WW-I between the hero, a Lt in Royal Artillery and his corporal: “A letter to your wife, Perkins?”; “No, sir; it is my Will”. My mind immediately raced back 38 years, to Friday, 10 December 1971.

Having fought a ferocious battle and pulled back to east of the river, the Division was consolidating. It was expected to be a day of lull. Suddenly at about 10 a m, there was confusion, as half-baked information came in that a huge enemy tank column had crossed the river at Crossing “D” and was heading towards the nearest town!

While that information was being checked, as a precautionary measure, reconnaissance of a different gun area for the artillery brigade, further to the rear, commenced as we were on the possible ingress route.

Just then my friend Major Pakrasi from Corps HQ landed close to my Fire Direction Centre in an Air OP aircraft carrying an important message for the Division (along with a cake from his wife). When he saw the ‘fog of war’, he decided not to delay, as the aircraft was urgently required back. I quickly wrote a letter (which was more or less my last Will and Testament) to my wife of three-and-a half years, then staying with her parents in Dehradun, in case the worst happened!

I handed it to him requesting him to post it in the Corps FPO for faster delivery! I had written telling her the likely balance in bank; advising her not be sentimental but to re-marry for the sake of our (then) only daughter, just a year-plus etc!

Soon, the information about the tank-column crossing was found to be false. With the arrival of the Corps Commander early afternoon, reconnaissance for any rearward move was stopped and a counterattack went in at D. The situation stabilised!

Ceasefire came on 17th and I had my first weekend pass, a month later, on 15/16 January 72, to be with my wife whom I had called to our own vacant flat at Pathankot by 14th. Soon the postman arrived and handed a Forces Letter duly re-directed from her Dehradun address! Looking at my name and the FPO stamp of 10 December, I snatched the letter from her. She wanted to know why. I told her. She insisted on reading it and cried a lot.

That is the time she also told me how Radio Pakistan had announced the names of my Commander, me, my GSO-3 and the Field Post Master as having been captured....a white lie, on 7 December, after we had vacated our previous position west of the river.

Luckily she had got a letter from me dated 8th subsequently! It was good that this Last Will and supposedly Last Letter from me was delayed by a month; for once I thanked the Indian Post!

We visited Darbar Sahib in Amritsar that Sunday, before I drove back to forward area on Monday morning!

Tailpiece: My wife passed away in 1983; that daughter in 1994 and Pakrasi this year.

OPED

New spirit of cooperation
Celebrating quarter century of SAARC
by Niranjan Desai

The 25th anniversary of the signing of the SAARC Charter (Dec 8, 2009) is good occasion to review and assess the progress the organisation has made since its inception. After initial years of stilted progress, SAARC is rapidly transforming itself from a declaratory to an effective implementing organisation. This progression has generated interest amongst non-SAARC states with nine observers formally expressing their intent to engage with SAARC.

India has been an important factor in strengthening intra-regional cooperation. India’s manner of its commitment to regional cooperation with SAARC member states by taking initiatives on regional projects has helped SAARC transform itself as an effective regional development organisation impacting directly at the grassroots level.

Bangladesh, Pakistan and Bhutan are also setting up necessary infrastructure for establishment of key specialised institutions that would complement the role of the SAARC Secretariat in coordinating SAARC activities. The focused approach of Nepal and Maldives on core subjects of development, such as agriculture, health and coastal management through the SAARC Regional Centres hosted by them are producing vibrant programmes and workshops.

Even SAARC’s newest member, Afghanistan, despite all its problems, is actively participating in all SAARC meetings and has already hosted/hosting several meetings in Kabul including the pivotal Fifth Meeting of the SAARC Development Fund Board.

The new spirit of regional cooperation, notwithstanding political difficulties between certain SAARC countries, has resulted in the beginning of SAARC institution-building process. The contours of the South Asian University (to be established in New Delhi), the SAARC Arbitration Council (to be located in Islamabad), Secretariat of the SAARC Development Fund (to be headquartered in Thimpu) and the SAARC Regional Standards Organisation (to be established in Dhaka) have been finalised.

The timely disbursement of India’s financial commitment of US $ 189.89 million (both voluntary and assessed) for the SAARC Development Fund has enabled it to be operationalised. The other SAARC member-states are also in the process of disbursing their contributions before the 16th SAARC Summit. The SAARC Food Bank is operational. Intra-regional trade within SAARC through SAFTA has more than doubled and has crossed 7 per cent, totalling US $ 200 million despite the current global economic crisis and recession.

The 15th SAARC Summit, chaired by Sri Lanka, witnessed signing of four key agreements, namely, accession of Afghanistan to the SAFTA Protocol; the establishment of SAARC Regional Standards Organisation in Bangladesh; the Convention of Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters and the Charter and Bylaws of the SAARC Development Fund.

The speed with which the South Asian University project is being established is impressive. With its Act, the South Asian University Act 2008, and its privileges and immunities giving it the required international legal contours, member-states will all be contributing to its full cost of US $ 303 million. India, as host, is already providing 100 acres of land in the centre of Delhi for it and is ready to disburse US $ 239.30 million, in five annual tranches.

Other major regional project initiatives include women’s empowerment, maternal and child healthcare including immunisation, SAARC Science Caravan, demonstration run of a container train from Pakistan to Bangladesh via India and Nepal. In addition, a number of projects such as telemedicine, tele-education, solar rural electrification, seed testing laboratories, harmonisation of seed standards and rainwater harvesting funded by India are being implemented through a hub-and-spoke mechanism.

These have increased member-states’ experience in cooperation and collaboration in regional projects. They are offering international airfare in addition to hospitality for programmes being hosted by them resulting in increased participation in training programmes.

A SAARC Museum of Textiles is to be established shortly in the Delhi Haat, Pitampura, to showcase the region’s rich textile heritage that though it has historic commonalities, it is diverse with each member-state’s unique contribution. Cultural programmes such as Bands Festivals, Folklore Festivals, Fashion shows and Food Festivals are adding to the increased cultural interaction in a vibrant manner.

With increasing regional engagement on core areas of development like health, education and infrastructure, awareness about the effectiveness of SAARC in delivering the fruits of development to the South Asians at the grassroots has increased. Consequently, there has been an exponential increase in intra-regional tourism, people-to-people exchanges through cultural and social activities and programmes.

This new vibrancy reflected in the growing regional cooperation through SAARC has also attracted interest amongst non-SAARC States; nine observers have formally expressed their intent to engage with SAARC. Intra-regional cooperation has strengthened physical connectivity, helped face the food crisis and is encouraging greater cooperation in articulating a common SAARC position at many international fora.

As the youngest yet fastest growing vehicle for regional economic cooperation, SAARC has been able to successfully adapt and complement its traditional cultural strengths with the demands of the current global economic and political framework. Representing the aspirations of one-fifth of world’s population, SAARC aspires to grow from strength to strength using its traditional linkages, innovative ideas (SAARC Science Caravan, SAARC Car Rally) and the research and development initiatives of its 11 regional centres.

SAARC’s evolutionary path towards economic prosperity is irreversible. With increasing economic inter-dependence amongst member-states, the future towards a SAARC Customs Union or a Single SAARC Currency appears to be more realistic than ever before.

Political will and commitment towards meaningful and effective regional cooperation can only result in the progressive dismantling of physical, psychological and other barriers and effective regional integration that can fulfill the hopes and aspirations of more than one billion of human kind for peaceful coexistence and economic prosperity.

The writer, a former IFS officer, has served in the US, the UK, Germany and Switzerland and in the Ministry of External Affairs. He is currently Chairperson of the Indian National Committee for SAARC Awards

Ensuring good governance in Haryana
by Ranbir Singh

The Congress’ emergence as the largest single party in the Haryana Assembly elections enabled it to form the government for the second time under the leadership of Mr Bhupinder Singh Hooda. The much-needed support from the kingmakers, the seven Independents, helped the government to prove its majority on the floor of the House. The so-called merger of five Haryana Janhit Congress MLAs will ensure stability.

However, the government has yet to gain legitimacy by de-bureaucratising and decentralising the district governance, which is the cutting edge of administration. Indeed, it was this factor that adversely affected the Congress’ performance in the Assembly elections despite Mr Hooda’s clean and liberal image as also rapid development during his earlier tenure.

The Haryana Administrative Reforms Commission had recommended in its report (2008) that the district administration should be restructured and its operational and service delivery aspects be reformed by strengthening the grievances redressal mechanism. For this purpose, it sought re-organisation of the districts, sub-divisions, tehsils, development blocks and police stations and suggested the formation of clusters of departments and PSUs in districts for better coordination.

It also recommended a reasonably fixed tenure for the officers posted in the field formations. It was of the view that only super-time scale officers of IAS cadre and DIG rank IPS officers should be posted as DCs and SSPs in crucial districts. It also emphasised career planning and adequate training of them before their appointment to these offices.

Further, the commission suggested the need-based re-deployment of Group C and Group D employees within the district by the district heads of various departments. It suggested scrapping the present practice of deciding these at the state level.

The commission made many more recommendations to improve district administration, but it is doubtful how many of them have been implemented. There is no use of these recommendations, however worthwhile they may be, if they remain only on paper.

The Third State Finance Commission, set up by the state government, under the chairmanship of former Chief Secretary A.N. Mathur in 2005, in its report (2009), has recommended democratisation and decentralisation of district governance through the functional and financial empowerment of the panchayati raj Institutions and the urban local bodies.

It felt that there was an imperative need for the bifurcation of domain between the state government and the local bodies similar to the division of subjects between the Centre and the states. To achieve this, it recommended that all the local level functions being presently performed by the line departments in the district and sub-districts should be transferred to the rural and urban local bodies along with funds, functionaries and functions in a phased manner.

The commission was of the view that there should be a clear-cut demarcation of the tax resources between the state and the local bodies either through consensus or through suitable state legislation to ensure legitimate sharing of taxes. It recommended that out of its resources from the global sharing, state excise revenue, Local Area Development Tax Proceeds and Twelfth Finance Commission grants, the state government should give to the rural and urban local bodies Rs 816.50 crore in 2008-09, 889.38 in 2009-10 and 876.89 in 2010-11. The Commission recommended that the unreleased share of PRIs amount 352.28 crore and of the urban local bodies to the tune of Rs 183.92 crore for 2006-07 and 2007-08 should be also transferred to them.

It suggested a very rational criterion for the division of resources among various districts by devising a composite index based on the parameters of population, areas, BPL families and literacy gap between the PRIs and the urban local bodies as well as among the gram panchayats, panchayat samitis and zilla parishads.

Besides, the commission recommended that the PRIs should be authorised to levy tax or fee on advertisements, hoardings, cable operators, micro-towers, public schools, coaching centres, technical and commercial institutions and other establishments like shops, restaurants and hotels, etc. located in their jurisdiction. Whereas, the municipalities be empowered to double house taxes on buildings other than residential buildings to levy profession tax, tax on the vacant land in the urban areas. Moreover, they be authorised to levy tax on valoriaation, impact fee on development, betterment levy and charge extractions from the developers.

If the state government is keen to resolve the crises of legitimacy, it will have to remove the deficit of good governance at the district level by implementing the recommendations of the Haryana Administrative Reforms Commission for streamlining district governance and that of the Third State Finance Commission for democratic decentralisation without delay. Commissions and recommendations are of little value if they are not implemented with the attention they deserve.

The writer, a former Professor of Political Science, Kurukshetra University, is currently Consultant, Haryana Institute of Rural Development, Nilokheri (Karnal)

Sea levels may rise faster
by Steve Connor

SEA LEVELS may rise three times faster than the official predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the global average sea. The new assessment comes just one week after another international scientific body concluded that the IPCC had been too conservative in estimating a maximum of 59 cm of sea level rise this century as a result of global warming.

Scientists believe earlier estimates failed to take into account gaps in the knowledge of how melting ice sheets will affect sea level, as well as technical errors in the calculations which have now been corrected, giving a much higher figure for estimated sea level rise than those published by the IPCC in its 2007 assessment.

A sea level rise of 1.9m would result in large tracts of eastern England being inundated with seawater, and would wipe out many low-lying island nations as well as making large parts of Bangladesh uninhabitable. It would also increase the chances of storm surges flooding major coastal cities, such as New York and London, even with the protection offered by the Thames Barrier.

The latest study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that global average sea levels are likely to rise by between 75 cm and 190 cm by the end of the century, due to the thermal expansion of the warmer oceans and the melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets.

Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, and Martin Vermeer of Helsinki University of Technology in Finland said sea levels are rising faster as a result of temperature increases, especially at the poles, which are warming at a faster rate than many other parts of the world.

“Since 1990, sea level has been rising at 3.4 mm per year, twice as fast as on average over the 20th century. Even if that rate just remained steady, this would already lead to 34 cm rise in the 21st century,” Dr Rahmstorf said. “But the data show us clearly n the warmer it gets, the faster the sea level rises. If we want to prevent a galloping sea level rise, we should stop global warming as soon as possible,” he said.

Dr Rahmstorf published a study in 2007, which came too late for including in the IPCC’s fourth assessment report, suggesting that global sea levels could rise by as much as 1.4m by 2100. However, he said that this earlier study was based on previous sea level rises that had failed to take into account the extra amount of sea level — about 3cm — that would have occurred had the freshwater held back by man-made reservoirs and dams been able to flow into the sea.

About two thirds of the additional 0.5m of maximum sea-level rise predicted in the latest study is due to this underestimate in previous calculations of past sea levels, Dr Rahmstorf said. The remaining third is due to refinements of the calculations producing more accurate estimates of sea level rise. The 1.9m increase will occur if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase on their present trajectory, which happens to be the worst-case scenario of the IPCC. Reducing emissions early this century will have a corresponding effect on reducing the maximum sea level rises, the scientists said.

One of the greatest difficulties in assessing future sea levels is the problem of gauging how fast it might take for polar ice sheets to disintegrate — whether they melt slowly, or slip quickly into the sea.

— By arrangement with The Independent