The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Succession plan on hold
BJP’s problems also stay unresolved

Instead of going for a thorough overhaul, the BJP seems to be set for a patchwork operation for the time being. The delayed action has been necessitated not only by the fact that it has to find a face-saving device for senior leaders like Mr L K Advani and Mr Rajnath Singh but also by the spectre of the forthcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana where the current turmoil in the party is bound to be reflected in the poll results. So, it is the status quo at the moment. However, there is very little chance of the two leaders being given too long a time. Their position has become untenable and the sooner they go the better it would be for the party.

But equally important is who will be handed over the baton now. There are no obvious choices because there is a paucity of second-rung leaders. According to current indications, instead of tall personalities, there will be several leaders of average merit who will be looking after various responsibilities. These may include Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Venkaiah Naidu, Ananth Kumar and even some dark horse.

The big question remains: whosoever they be, will they be able to extricate the BJP from its present mess? What needs to be noted is that nobody has really addressed uncomfortable issues raised by Mr Jaswant Singh, Mr Yashwant Sinha, Mr Brajesh Mishra and Mr Arun Shourie. Instead, the BJP is now being prepared to conform to the RSS ideology. That will mean that there may be re-dedication to the “core belief” of Hindutva, whatever softer name it may be given. That will only be pushing the party into the same quagmire which had made it stumble in the recent general election. The redemption may actually lie in exactly the opposite direction. Mr Mohan Bhagwat, Sarsanghachalak of the RSS, may be optimistic that the BJP can rise from the ashes, but others — even the insiders — may not be that confident. Everybody wants the party to change the way it is run. But who is there to effect the course correction?

All is not lost
Lessons must be learnt from Chandrayaan-I

India’s moon mission was launched in October last year with such confidence that the scientists at ISRO did not deem it fit to insure the Rs 386-crore spacecraft. The supposed two-year mission to the moon has been cut short and no one at ISRO is able to explain why. Earlier in August, ISRO Chairman G. Madhavan Nair had claimed that 95 per cent of Chandrayaan’s work was over. Then why was it supposed to stay there for another year or so? Media reports suggest an ISRO goof-up as no lunar spacecraft has so for worked for two years. An insurance cover would have perhaps, apart from covering the loss, provided another independent check on its survival capability.

During its 312 days in space, the 1,380-kg Chandrayaan –I made 3,400 orbits around the moon, searching for signs of water and rich mineral deposits, including Helium 3, a rare isotope used in nuclear fusion to generate energy. One of the achievements of the spacecraft that caused a national emotional high was the hoisting of the Tricolour on the lunar surface. Despite ISRO keeping a lid on the spacecraft’s weaknesses, it became clear quite early that all was not well. Some of the crucial onboard systems did not operate as expected. Both star-sensors as well as one of the two “bus management units” became non-functional. The thermal management to save the spacecraft from either getting frozen or baked was not effective, forcing ISRO to move it away from the moon in May. In July the space agency finally admitted the systemic failures.

However, the setback need not dishearten the ISRO scientists from their work on Chandryana-II, which is expected to be on schedule. Every unsuccessful experiment leaves lessons for future success. ISRO has catapulted India into the big league comprising the US, Europe, Russia, China and Japan engaged in the quest to understand the moon better.

Thought for the Day

No mask like open truth to cover lies,/ As to go naked is the best disguise.
— William Congreve

ARTICLE

Challenges from China
Need for defence modernisation
by Kamlendra Kanwar

India’s just-retired naval chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta’s recent warning that China will become a “primary challenge” for India in the future and that “in military terms, both conventional and non-conventional, this country has neither the capability nor the intention to match China force for force” was a candid statement of fact though it caused many eyebrows to rise in policy-making circles.

The Chinese threat has generally been talked of in hushed tones. During NDA rule the then Defence Minister, Mr George Fernandes, had disturbed a hornet’s nest when in 1998 he stated that China was India’s enemy number one. Though he later expressed regret over the remark, suspicion of Chinese intentions has been a reality in the Indian foreign affairs establishment for long.

Admiral Mehta’s prediction that Beijing’s territorial claims would become more assertive as its military capabilities continue to develop cannot be taken lightly. He surely knew what he was talking about when he addressed the National Maritime Convention in New Delhi earlier this month. As Admiral Mehta was dwelling on Chinese assertiveness, Beijing was all set to launch its largest-ever military exercise involving 50,000 troops not far from the Indian border.

While China holds on to 38,000 sq km in the western sector occupied during the 1962 hostilities, its growing assertion of its claim over nearly 90,000 sq km in Arunachal Pradesh has a history to it. The legendary first chairman of the Communist Party of China, Mao Zedong, had once termed Tibet as the palm of a hand with its five fingers as Ladakh, Sikkim, Nepal, Bhutan and the North-East Frontier Agency. He had claimed that these were Chinese territories that needed to be ‘liberated’.

Mao often quoted a famous Chinese saying, “…If the east wind does not prevail over the west wind, then east wind will prevail over the east wind.” This was interpreted as an obsession to dominate other nations in their vicinity.

Though the spurt in Sino-Indian trade in recent times has encouraged the view that the economic inter-dependence of the two Asian giants would ensure that they don’t go to war again as they did in 1962, China’s consistent support to Pakistan, both overt and covert, and its fanning of Naxalism in large parts of India leave no room for complacency.

It is no secret that nuclear weapons and missile technology were transferred to Pakistan by China in an effort to build it up as a bulwark against India. Likewise, Maoists in Nepal supported on the sly by the Chinese are in cahoots with the Indian Maoists who now control 40 per cent of India’s territory.

The Chinese have also seen to it that all of India’s neighbours —Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and even Sri Lanka — remain under their spell.

India has indeed come a long way from the days when the shadow of China evoked great fear in the establishment but there is still much ground to cover.

A recent manifestation of this country’s new-found confidence was the deployment of a full squadron of 18 Sukhoi fighter aircraft a bare 370 km from the last post on the India-China border. Considering that China had earlier deployed ground troops on a major scale in this sensitive area, this was a much-needed Indian response to Chinese hegemonistic activity on the northeastern border with India.

Earlier, in June last a leading Chinese newspaper, Global Times, which is the official organ of the Communist Party of China, had editorially described the Indian decision to station 60,000 troops in Arunachal Pradesh as a “military provocation” and warned India that it “needs to consider whether or not it can afford the consequences of a potential confrontation with China”.

The editorial linked this move to a statement by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that his government would “make no concessions to China on territorial disputes” despite cooperative India-China relations. Said the editorial: “This ‘tough posture’ may win Dr. Singh some applause among India’s domestic nationalists, but this is dangerous if it is based on a false anticipation that China will cave in.”

Apparently, the Chinese have been unaccustomed to India’s show of confidence and their reaction stems from unhappiness over the growing clout that India enjoys in the world at large.

While border talks have been continuing with both sides reiterating their position, there is an undercurrent of strain that surfaces from time to time. The latest flashpoint was the Asian Development Bank’s nod to the funding of an irrigation project in Arunachal Pradesh late last year.

In the face of China’s objection, the ADB recently approved a $60 million loan for a watershed development project in Arunachal, as part of its $2.9 billion India development plan for three years to 2012. The Chinese claim that the area that India calls Arunachal Pradesh belongs to it and that the ADB had no business including it in the India aid plan.

India’s stand was that while Arunachal was an integral part of its territory, China’s objection on political grounds was a clear violation of the ADB’s charter which prohibits the Bank from evaluating any proposal on grounds other than economic.

China angrily rejected India’s assertion that Arunachal Pradesh was its integral part, insisting that Beijing never recognised the “illegal” McMahon Line and that the status of the border state was “never officially demarcated”.

Though the Chinese are now clearly upping the ante on Arunachal, their designs were clear nearly three years ago when, on the eve of the visit of their president, Hu Jintao to India, China’s ambassador Sun Yuxi created a diplomatic flutter by reiterating Beijing’s claim to Arunachal Pradesh.

Significantly, China is setting rail tracks very close to Arunachal Pradesh whereas the nearest Indian railhead is far away.

All this may not presage war both because India is no longer weak and helpless as it was in 1962 and trade between the two countries is on an upward spiral to the benefit of both countries, but it does not bode well for relations between the two neighbours. India can hardly ignore the fact that the Chinese worked assiduously behind the scenes to block the Nuclear Suppliers Group from allowing access of nuclear fuel and technology to this country. That it failed to achieve its goal is quite another matter.

Clearly, India can ill afford to lower its guard. Beijing deploys the world’s biggest army, and its defence spending is rising faster than any other power. According to official figures, Beijing’s military budget in 2008 was 418 billion yuan — £35 billion — a rise of 17.8 per cent on 2007. This already exceeds Britain’s defence budget of £34 billion and places China’s military spending second only to the US.

According to figures from Jane’s, the military specialists, the Chinese defence budget has risen by 178 per cent in the past seven years, even after adjusting for inflation. At this rate, China will spend £180 billion — half of the Pentagon’s current budget and five times Britain’s — by 2020.

India has to match up to Chinese preparedness through its own military modernisation programme and also through strategic alliances. After the huge outgo on salaries of defence personnel, there is sadly little left from the budgeted amounts for the modernisation of the armed forces. But even that remains partially unspent. There is indeed a long way to go before this country can consider itself duly equipped to face up to the Chinese threat.

MIDDLE

House that was Eulie’s home
by Roopinder Singh

During an evening walk, a strange emptiness compelled me to look towards my right, behind the wall covered with a green hedge — nothing. A battered almirah jutted out from a demolished house, once home to one of the architects who built Chandigarh.

Urmila Eulie Chowdhury was an extraordinary phenomenon — a pioneering architect, teacher and designer who contributed so much to the making of Chandigarh, right from planning the bricks and mortars to laying the foundation of cultural activities along with her friends Champa Mangat Rai and N.C. Thakur. She also established Alliance Françoise de Chandigarh in 1983. The dapper author, N. Iqbal Singh, was a neighbour.

“Why I hate Children,” came by mail soon after I joined The Tribune. It was a witty, perceptive article and before long Eulie was a regular contributor to the Saturday Plus supplement. She wrote a well-informed piece about Male Cooks of Chandigarh, and once admiringly about a woman who could “drink any man under the table”. The lady did protest too much, but when Eulie retorted that she had much more to say, and the tirade became a simper.

What a woman Eulie was! Petite, fiery and totally cosmopolitan. She was born in Shahjehanpur in UP in 1923; got her Cambridge School Certificate from Kobe, Japan; studied architecture and music in Sydney, and got a diploma in Ceramics from Englewood, New Jersey, USA.

I had just returned from New York, and was familiar with Englewood. In time we became friends, and I would walk down to her house to meet her.

Eulie had come to India in 1951 to work with Le Corbusier and would narrate many anecdotes about the time when the city was taking shape and of Le Corbusier, Pierre Jeanerette, Jane Drew and Piloo Modi with his dogs.

The International Archive of Women in Architecture says she was the first woman to qualify as an architect in Asia. Eulie was Chief Architect Chandigarh, Punjab, and Haryana. She was also principal, Delhi School of Architecture and Planning. The main block of the Polytechnic for Women and the Hostel Block for the Home Science College were designed by her.

She contributed a column in The Tribune that pointed out mistakes that had crept into the columns of the paper. She also wrote for a variety of architectural journals. Till the very end, she was active, and cause-driven. She joined hands with Mac Sarin in advocating euthanasia.

Eulie, who passed away a decade ago, entertained with poise and grace. She would greet her guests as they walked over the black concrete floor that always had a mirror-like finish. What a home it was —witness to history in the making, soaring intellectual discussions, petty party squabbles and delicious gossip. It was also a living example of Corbusier’s design. Seeing this lovely home reduced to rubble left me with a heavy heart — I found it difficult to come to terms with what the home of one of those who built Chandigarh had been reduced to.

OPED

Voter anger in Japan
The ruling party loses after 54 years in power
by Blaine Harden

Breaking a half-century hammerlock of one-party rule in Japan, the opposition Democratic Party won a crushing election victory on Sunday with pledges to revive the country’s stalled economy and to steer a foreign-policy course less dependent on the United States.

But it was pent-up voter anger, not campaign promises, that halted 54 years of near-continuous dominance by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The party had become a profoundly unpopular, but deeply entrenched, governing force that so feared it would be swept from power that it had put off a national election for nearly three years.

In a record landslide on a rainy day, voters awarded 308 seats in the powerful 480-seat lower house of parliament to a slightly left-of-center opposition party formed by disaffected LDP veterans. It is led by Yukio Hatoyama, 62, a Stanford-trained engineer who will probably be chosen prime minister in mid-September.

“I believe all the people were feeling a great rage against the current government,” Hatoyama said. “Everything starts now. We can finally do politics that the people are building their hopes on. My heart is too full for words.”

The grand strategist behind the win was Ichiro Ozawa, a former LDP power broker. He was the Democratic Party’s founding leader until he was forced to resign this year in a campaign finance scandal.

Hatoyama thanked Ozawa on Sunday night for engineering the victory, and said he wants Ozawa either to serve in his cabinet or to continue as campaign manager for the party.

“Frustration against the LDP, which ignored people’s lives and favored the bureaucracy, has been felt nationwide,” Ozawa said, explaining his party’s win.

Japan was the postwar wonder that grew into the world’s second-largest economy. But it became enfeebled and directionless in the latter years of LDP’s long watch, with stagnant wages and sputtering growth, the worrying rise of the world’s oldest population and a monstrous government debt that will soon double the gross national product. Unemployment set a record last week and the economy shrank for much of the past year at nearly twice the U.S. rate.

For these failings, voters seemed eager to punish the LDP and its unpopular leader, Prime Minister Taro Aso. On Sunday, Aso called his party’s defeat “very severe.”

“I think it is a result of the people’s dissatisfaction and distrust towards LDP’s leadership,” Aso said, adding that he takes responsibility for the loss and will step down as party leader.

Judging from polls and voter interviews, the opposition won not because of its attractive policies or charismatic leadership. There is skepticism about how sound those policies are and doubt about how capable the party’s unproven leaders will be. Instead, the Democratic Party won by default, as the only available means by which voters could wrest power from the LDP.

“It is not really that I am voting for the Democratic Party,” said Atsushi Neriugawa, 49, owner of a consulting company, after voting in Tokyo. “I simply want power to change. If the Democratic Party happens to be no good, then I will revert back to LDP.”

The election marked the first time in post-war Japan that an opposition party seized power with a majority in a national election. The Democratic Party’s capture of 308 seats was a record in the lower house. Final turnout was projected by the Kyodo news agency to be 69 percent, highest since the current electoral system was introduced in 1996.

The upper house is controlled by the Democratic Party, but that could change after an election next year if the new ruling party stumbles.

A stumble is probably likely, given the severity of Japan’s economic problems. By the go-go standards of Asia, this country’s economy is dead in the water — averaging about 1.09 percent growth since 2000. In the past two decades, Japan has skidded from fourth to 14th among industrialized nations in per-capita gross domestic product.

Growth is desperately needed to pay for pensions, health care and other costly social services for a fast-aging population, 40 percent of which will be 65 or older by 2050. Accelerated growth is also needed to raise enough tax revenue to begin reducing a public debt of $9.14 trillion, the heaviest debt burden in the industrialized world, measured as a percentage of the country’s economy.

The Democratic Party says increased growth will come through higher domestic consumption. It says it will give parents $276 a month to raise children, and will also eliminate highway tolls, increase support for farmers and raise the minimum wage.

“We’ll make sure the economy recovers by providing benefits to households,” Hatoyama said in a speech last week.

But analysts say his party’s plans do not add up to a credible strategy for reinventing Japan’s export-addicted economy. Voters, too, are skeptical, telling pollsters they do not understand where money will come from for $178 billion in new spending. The party is promising not to raise the public debt or increase consumption taxes for the foreseeable future.

“The Democrat Party actually has no economic policy,” said Minoru Morita, a political analyst. “They have no systemic proposals, no New Deal. Without a plan, they cannot overcome the crisis left to them by the LDP. If they drive the economy recklessly, then they could lose big time in the upper house election next year.”

The Democratic Party has pushed for greater independence for Japan from the United States, which has about 50,000 military personnel stationed here and is treaty-bound to defend the country from attack. Japan helps pay for the cost of stationing U.S. forces on its territory, a policy the Democratic Party has questioned. It says it wants to rethink the entire agreement that keeps U.S. soldiers here.

But in recent weeks Hatoyama and other party leaders have said they will not seek major changes in foreign policy. Hatoyama said the U.S.-Japan alliance would “continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy.”

— By arrangement with LA Times-Washington Post

How to save rivers
by Bharat Dogra

FOR several centuries the Ganga and Yamuna rivers have remained a lifeline for crores of people apart from supporting abundant aquatic life as well as other animals and birds. These rivers have been a source of reverence and inspiration for countless people and Ganga-Yamuna culture has left an indelible print on the life of India and its neighbourhood.

In more recent times, however, the pollution and many-sided threats to these rivers have caused much concern to the people as well as the government. The government’s efforts to protect these rivers have concentrated mainly on checking pollution levels. However, despite the prioritisation of these rivers, the result has not been particularly encouraging.

Reviewing the 20 years of the Ganga Action Plan, the 11th Plan document (2008) said that while the Ganga river’s overall polluted stretch has been reduced, the important stretch from Kannauj to Allahabad has not yet achieved even the bathing quality standard. The condition of the Yamuna river is even worse.

According to official norms, the biological oxygen demand (BOD) less than 3 mg/litre and dissolved oxygen (DO) more than 6 mg/litre indicate water is of bathing quality. However, the official water quality data (March-June 2006) at Kanpur downstream reveal DO in Ganga was only 3.90. BOD was recorded higher than 3 at Kannouj D/S (4.2), Kanpur (6.8) and Allahabad U/S (4.9).

In the case of the Yamuna, the shocking situation at the Nizamuddin Bridge (Delhi) and in the Agra canal was a DO of absolute zero. In Mathura also this was below the bathing quality standard. The BOD level at Nizamuddin was shockingly high at 31 (against the desirable norm of below 3). This remained very high in the Agra canal (28) and in Mathura, Agra and Etawah (around 15).

This is the disturbing picture revealed by the official data, but some unofficial sources say that the situation is even worse. For example, in the case of Varanasi the official data say the situation of the Ganga after nearly 20 years of the Ganga Action Plan is reasonably satisfactory but close monitoring done by a local organization, Sankatmochan Foundation (dedicated to pollution-free Ganga), revealed a very different situation of unacceptably high pollution levels.

Thus it appears that despite heavy investment in the Ganga and Yamuna Action Plan, the pollution levels in the rivers have remained unacceptably high. Clearly the approach to reducing pollution has to be improved and overall a more comprehensive approach is needed to tackle the many-sided threats faced by these rivers.

To evolve a comprehensive approach we should start at the place of origin and the hill catchments of these rivers in the Himalayan region. To provide stability in the flow of these rivers, it is important to protect the remaining natural forests, trees and other greenery and to plant more indigenous species of trees, particularly broad-leaf species with better soil and water conservation properties. Concerted efforts should be made to improve soil conservation and to reduce the threat of landslides.

At present a large number of dams, tunnel dams and hydel projects are being built at a great hurry on these rivers and their tributaries in the Himalayan region and even more are planned. In the hurry to speed up projects, essential precautions are being ignored, explosives are being used excessively and village communities are being traumatised.

In the case of tunnel dams, rivers more or less disappear for considerable stretches, locked in the darkness of tunnels. The unique quality of the Ganga water comes from its close contacts with Himalayan herbs and minerals – how can this be retained when the river is forced time and again into cemented narrow tunnels, denied even sunshine?

The threat from the indiscriminate construction activity increases when one sees that many warnings given earlier in the case of the Tehri Dam Project are proving true and several villages are sinking precariously towards the newly created reservoir. There is, therefore, a clear need to reconsider these projects with many-sided hazards and threats to rivers and people living around them.

When these rivers emerge from the hills, again there is a hurry to divert excessive amounts of water so that enough fresh water is not left for the natural flow of the river. In the case of the Yamuna this is done to such an extreme extent that hardly any fresh water remains in the Yamuna after Tajewala right up to Etawah. In such a situation the river cannot be saved by waste treatment alone.

Due to the poor results of the existing plans, innovative approaches of waste treatment and pollution control are needed. Efforts should be made to prevent toxic waste’s entry into the river. In this context an innovative project proposed by Sankatmochan Foundation in Varanasi shows a lot of promise.

In water-scarce cities like Delhi the monsoon flows,which reach the Yamuna flood plains, play a very useful role in increasing groundwater which has been under a lot of stress. But this is a high-value land and all the time there are pressures – unfortunately supported by the authorities – to colonise this land and build heavy cement and concrete structures on it.

It is clear that a comprehensive approach is needed to tackle the many-sided threats to the Ganga and Yamuna rivers. The impact on the people living around these rivers should also be given full attention. The entire effort for protecting the rivers should take the form of a people’s campaign and subsequently a people’s movement.

The existing efforts like Nadi Bachao Abhiyan, Yamuna Jiye Abhiyan are steps in the right direction but we need such steps on a much bigger scale. The government’s efforts should benefit from and involve such people’s movements.

Delhi Durbar
Pakistani qawwali on Jaswant Singh

Bankay Mian, a Pakistani singer, has devoted a qawwali to Jaswant Singh, praising him for standing up for the founding father of Pakistan. He has given a “21-gun” salute to Singh

“Koi to hai joh wahan hamare

tarane gaa riya hai

Hamare badon ko wahan yaad

kiya jaa riya hai

Naam hai uska Jaswant Singh

aur fan hai woh Quaid-e-Azam ka”

“Quaid-e-Azam ke peeche

usne wahan phatta bol le liya hai

Isi chakkar main uski party ke thekedaron ne use ghar jaane ka nyota de diya hai”

“To Jassu Bhaiyya aap toh ab zara

Bankay Mian ki aake qawalli sun le

Aur apne apne naam ki

21 gunon ki salami sun le”.

Shashi Tharoor’s book

Having unveiled his book “Shadows Across the Playing Field” in Mumbai in early August, Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor is all set to launch it in Delhi in the third week of September. Shaharyar Khan, a former Chairman of the Pakistan Cricket Board,r is the co-author of the book and is expected to attend the function in Delhi.

The book, to be released by former Indian skipper M.A.K. Pataudi, captures 60 years of India-Pakistan cricket. Shaharyar wants Tharoor to come to Lahore for the launch of the book in Pakistan. But can Tharoor do that as a minister in the government?

Navy Chief’s shot

Admiral Sureesh Mehta, who has retired as the Chief of the Navy Staff, is not known to mince words. At his farewell press conference, however, Mehta did not “take the bait.” He ducked controversial questions.

He had a piece of advice for the media – it should be responsible and report carefully. He issued a small clarification on his recent remarks on China saying “you people misquoted me”. Later, he even shouted at a reporter. “Do you run the Navy or I do …?”.

High stakes

Top legal brains of the country were involved in a bitter battle in the Supreme Court on a recent Friday, a day for miscellaneous cases each of which normally take only a few seconds or minutes for the judges to take a decision.

A similar case, however, took over half-an-hour before a Bench headed by Chief Justice KG Balakrishnan, with Attorney General GE Vahanvati and Solicitor General Gopal Subramaniam taking on two senior counsel Harish Salve and Mukul Rohtagi.

The case related to elections. The Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation was the client of the AG and the SG, while grassroots-level political workers aspiring to contest the election to the civic body had hired Salve and Rohtagi.

The case has made two things clear. High stakes are not restricted to elections to Parliament and assemblies. And gone are the days when the AG, the highest law officer of the nation, used to make rare appearances in courts, largely limiting his role to tendering advice to the government and the President on crucial Constitutional matters.

Contributed by Ashok Tuteja, Ajay Banerjee and R Sedhuraman