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Growth not enough After Karnataka |
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Deals blasted
Oil, food and geopolitics
Little steps in khaki
India well placed to
tide over food crisis Move to raise rural intake
for agriculture course Inside Pakistan
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Growth not enough THE UPA government can justifiably take pride in the fact that the country has achieved an average annual growth of 9.3 per cent for three consecutive years. More significantly, agricultural decline has got reversed and in the last fiscal it had registered a healthy 3.5 per cent growth. Now a confident Prime Minister hopes for “more than 8 per cent” growth rate this year despite a global slowdown. While official figures about the industrial growth for the last some quarters are not very encouraging, agriculture may again spring a surprise, particularly if the monsoon does not get erratic and spoil the party. Despite high growth, why are the voters rejecting the ruling party at the Centre in state after state? Obviously, their concern is more about the rising prices of essential commodities. Household budgets, not only of the poor, but also of the middle class, have been overstretched to meet the rising cost of living. Whatever limited fruits of growth reached them have been more than neutralised by the spiralling inflation. Incidentally, the hopes for a growth rate of 8 per cent starkly contrast with last week’s hard reality of inflation reaching 8.1 per cent. While cheer is returning to the face of exporters as the rupee depreciates against the dollar, this will make the government spend more on imported oil. The increased food, fertiliser and fuel subsidies will unsettle the Centre’s finances. Instead of basking in the glory of past or future growth figures the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister should rather concentrate on containing the fiscal deficit and controlling the prices. Their blaming the high global food and fuel prices for the trouble at home does not go well with the ordinary citizens who are used to taking excuses with an element of suspicion. The proposed hike in the petroleum prices is going to aggravate an already difficult price situation. The government has to spell out its strategy for reducing prices soon, nevertheless.
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After Karnataka THE victory in Karnataka provided an excellent backdrop for the national executive meeting of the BJP in Delhi early this week. The party could tom-tom the fact that it had disproved all those who accuse it of communalising elections. It did not resort to Hindutva in the elections which were fought on issues like the price rise, the diabolical conduct of the Deve Gowda clan and the promise of good governance. Of course, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was a star campaigner but there was little to suggest that he got a more favourable response than, say, any other BJP leader. In other words, the BJP could claim that it won a southern state without drumming up its familiar, divisive slogans. Yet, at the National Executive, party chief Rajnath Singh expended his energy on redefining secularism, which ended up giving the inescapable impression that the party’s core concern continues to be Hindutva, even if it has to be muffled a bit. And to make it doubly clear, former External Affairs Minister Jaswant Sigh went to the extent of defending monarchy in Nepal for no other reason than that the deposed King is a Hindu. That he could not provide even one cogent reason why India should have stepped in to prevent the scenario whereby the Maoists are calling the shots in the youngest Republic. It does not speak well of the second largest party in India to even hint at deriding the vote in Nepal that allowed the Maoists to come to power. It should have realised that there were no takers for the monarchy when the issue was put to the vote. India had done what it should have - watched with interest how the democratic upheaval took place in the Himalayan nation. The BJP has reason to be upbeat about its victory in successive state assembly elections. When the party was in power, the series of victories the Congress registered was a sign that the results of the Lok Sabha elections would not be any different. What is noteworthy about the BJP’s victory, whether in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand or Karnataka, is that it was accomplished on the basis of the failure of the Congress to fulfil the aspirations of the people. This should have emboldened the party to harp on people’s issues, rather than indulge in semantics on secularism. Or, is it that the party will not change its spots? |
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Deals blasted Monday’s suicide bomb blast near the Danish Embassy in Islamabad is the first incident of its kind after the formation of the PPP-led coalition government in Pakistan. The incident, which claimed eight lives, has exposed the hollowness of the first major policy decision of the new regime to enter into deals with representatives of the Taliban in Pakistan claiming that the policy may help contain terrorism. But now it has been proved that terrorists have their own agenda and they are not going to abandon it so long as they have the strength to implement it. The explosives used in the car-bombing of the embassy building are similar to those used by Taliban activists in killing and maiming people in Pakistan’s tribal areas. They are believed to have targeted the Danish Embassy to take revenge against the publication of cartoons caricaturing Prophet Mohammad by Danish newspapers first in 2005 and then in 2006. Whatever was the provocation, the Islamabad blast shows that the terrorists in Pakistan continue to have the capacity to strike at will anywhere, even in a heavily guarded area like the diplomatic enclave. Their infrastructure remains intact despite the Pakistan government’s claims to the contrary. They have spread their tentacles throughout the length and breadth of Pakistan. And there are people who are ready to do anything at the instigation of terrorist masterminds. A kid-glove approach like that shown in striking deals with the enemies of humanity will not do. They need to be dealt with sternly. The use of the armed forces cannot be avoided if the situation so demands. Of course, terrorism cannot be handled by military means alone. Economic emancipation programmes in the tribal areas, where there is rampant poverty, must be undertaken by the Pakistan government earnestly. But the government must not appear to be weak while dealing with terrorists of any persuasion. Islamabad’s deal with the Taliban has sent out the signal that the new government is desperate. It has blundered by withdrawing troops from the areas having considerable Taliban following. The coalition government must go in for a policy review before it is too late. |
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Pain is life. — Charles Lamb
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Oil, food and geopolitics
High
oil and food prices have become sizzling issues in geopolitics, inciting food riots in some countries, prompting calls for emergency action by governments and international agencies. In many cities around the world, gasoline and milk sell at about the same price. At present, it is not just geology or nature that is to blame for the mounting shortages of energy, food or water. Geopolitics and poor public policy responses are at the heart of the problem in the midst of a global economic slowdown and renewed inflation. To understand the many implications of the complex energy and food crisis that now threaten people’s living standards or, in some cases, even daily lives, it is necessary to revisit the three principal drivers of modern economic development — adequate energy, food and water-and their impact at national and international levels. Oil and water have become critical to agricultural production and thus to food security. Let us start with the big picture. Taking energy first, most analysts agree that, being a depleting gift of nature, petroleum, gas and their derivatives are going to be globally more expensive than before. The current global oil demand of 87 million barrels a day is outpacing supplies, as little new oil is coming into the market while the world oil demand keeps rising, especially from China. The supply side is also impacted by non-market factors such as rampant resource nationalism, terrorism and local insurgencies, or legal restrictions on oil exploration and production in some countries. New investment in oil exploration and production has significantly lagged behind future projections. Most governments in energy-importing countries are aware of the coming energy crunch. Only a few are making the hard choices — and the necessary investments — in alternative fuel resources. Unless demand declines sharply, which is unlikely, there is little chance of any significant rollback of oil prices in the foreseeable future. Against this scenario it is clear that the Indian economy is at a high risk to its growth from an energy deficiency and the lack of workable options in the next five to 10 years. With an annual import bill of $84 billion, oil is about the single most expensive item in the country’s foreign trade basket. It gobbles up nearly half of the country’s export earnings. And India’s estimated current oil import of 2.5 million barrels daily equals the entire oil output of Kuwait or Iraq. By current projections, oil imports will rise for several years before they can be stabilised by alternative domestic fuels. Indian policy makers would surely be aware of the country’s alarming dependence on oil although few could have predicted oil touching $135 a barrel today or $200 next year. In certain aspects, therefore, India’s present energy security agenda, as recently adopted by the Planning Commission, may already be outdated because of the steep rise in the prices of imported energy oil, gas or even coal as well as a declining share of domestic nuclear power. Add to this list the receding prospect of successful nuclear deal with the US and the big picture about India’s energy security and its impact on the nation’s future well-being becomes all too clear. Closely related to energy security are the issues of securing adequate food production and water resources for agriculture and drinking purpose. The recent neglect of Indian agriculture has been dramatically exposed by its declining share in the country’s economy. Despite a strong growth in the industrial and services sectors, Indian agriculture and the 70 per cent rural population contributed less than 18 per cent to the country’s gross domestic product. Despite much political rhetoric, the enormous benefits of the Green Revolution that made the country an envy of the developing world have almost faded away, replaced by renewed concerns about imported food dependence. Contrary to the perceived wisdom, any substantial increases in agricultural surpluses, especially food production, can only come from more commercial scale agriculture on more areas under an efficient irrigation. This also requires significant investments to increases in farm productivity, better cropping patterns, higher public outlays in water economy, research and development as well as optimum use of fertilizers and pesticides. India’s truly enormous water resources, a great national asset by any measure, suffer from poor management, as they are increasingly diverted to mushrooming urbanisation, or substantially lost in an antiquated irrigation system or polluted underground water. They need to be more optimally deployed to assure sufficient water for both agriculture and urban usage as well as to produce more electricity for rural areas. A rational and strategic utilisation of the sub-continental water resources is in the interest of all South Asians, but this object could fall a victim to the geopolitics of energy. If, for instance, a euphoric radical regime in Nepal were to conclude a new power deal with China to build up captive power projects for electricity to Tibet, that would be a denial of Indian interests after decades of patient efforts to tap our joint water resources. So, what should India be doing to meet some of the new challenges? How should energy, food and water security be integrated with overall national security? First, India’s political leadership should undertake a full review of the country’s current energy security policies in the context of dramatic worldwide rise in oil prices- beyond the looming electoral agenda. To be credible, such a review should be at a bipartisan level, with required strategic, economic and technical inputs exploring different future scenarios. There is merit in taking counsel from outside energy experts, beside domestic specialists. The high-level review should also attempt to spell out execution strategies to achieve concrete targets and goals for energy security. Any high-level review should invite, as expert witnesses, well-qualified representatives from civil society, the scientific community and the non-governmental organisations that have proven experience of handling-energy related public issues, including alternative energies, climate change and pollution-free technologies. Participation by selected NGOs and experts will add a valuable dimension beyond the well-worn politicised debates. Energy security should become a non-partisan endeavour, an issue of national priority, like the removal of poverty or illiteracy. It should not be left to the bureaucracy alone to carry the burden of defending a controversial policy line, while their political masters stay above the fray, cherry picking only successes but leaving failures to others. Most importantly, India should review and overhaul its existing administrative set-up, currently with more than half a dozen energy-related ministries or departments (power, coal, water, atomic energy, renewable energy, etc.) without effective political-level coordination. A dynamic, senior Cabinet-level minister should coordinate and supervise all energy-related agencies. He should have a political status similar to those of ministers for foreign, home, defence and finance. This would enable energy security policies to be fully integrated into the strategic policy-making processes. Finally, the virtual collapse of the nuclear deal with the US, which also effectively excludes any parallel bilateral nuclear deal with other potential foreign partners, should be a matter of a wider public debate and stock taking. The political demise of a carefully negotiated bilateral agreement, just when it seemed to be on the verge of success, does amount to a deliberate denial of benefits of nuclear energy to India in the coming years. Issues like energy, food and water are of vital strategic concerns for the entire nation. They need to be kept above partisan politics or scoring debating points. Nothing less than India’s future energy security is at
stake.
The writer is a Geneva-based former Ambassador of India to the United Nations.
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Little steps in khaki
I became employable some 15 years ago when there was a licence-inspector raj. Then it started to change. Soon government became a detestable word. And I joined the government at a time when it was no longer fashionable. Worse still, I chose to be a cop. Some friends were smarter. They joined the glitzy corporate world and soon became jet set. I was learning the tricks of my trade as an ASP undergoing district training when two high-flying college friends visited me. We relived old memories. They impressed me with stories of their meaningful careers, huge salaries and perks. I had little to boast about as far as this aspect of my job was concerned. But I wanted desperately to prove that I was no mean achiever. That evening we decided to watch a late night movie show. It was past midnight by the time we finished. It was an unusually cold January night. As we were getting inside the vehicle, I announced, “Come on guys! Let’s pay a surprise visit to the City Police Station”. Now my friends had position and money. They knew their sarkari friend was a cop. Yet visit to a thana is serious business. They were reluctant. For me it was a great chance to show off. I dragged two unwilling souls into my Gypsy. We reached the thana to discover the main gate bolted from inside. My gunman and driver got on the job. Moments later a shabbily dressed, yawning, petrified sentry opened the gate to receive an unexpected senior officer. He saluted me. I gave him a mouthful. In less than five minutes the staff was up at their feet and gathered in the courtyard to receive their share of abuses, dressed in a variety of shabbiness. I was enjoying the moment and went around sermonising, “This is precisely why we have so many thefts in this area. You rogues sleep while anti-social elements are at work. Now where is the damn SHO?” The Munshi said, “Sarkar! He has gone patrolling.” I was not convinced. “Get me the Station diary!” I ordered. It appeared in seconds. Indeed the last entry marked the SHO’s departure an hour earlier, in the thana jeep. My loyal driver came and whispered in my ear, “Janaab! The jeep is parked behind the living quarters and the driver is asleep in his room.” I became livid and shouted, “Get me that scoundrel. I want him here in five minutes. I am going to suspend him right now.” I parked myself in the SHO’s office followed by two excited overawed friends. They had never seen policemen at the receiving end. I was enjoying my moment of glory sharpening my claws to tear apart the SHO. My friends waited with bated breath. Minutes later the SHO walked in adjusting his cap on his bald pate. He saluted and before I could utter a word he asked very innocently: “Hujoor! Why don’t you get married?” What followed was nothing remarkable. However, I had received my first lesson on how to get out of tricky
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India well placed to tide over food crisis THE Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations is holding an emergency meeting of heads of states from June 3 to 5, 2008, to discuss “World Food Security and the Challenges of Climate Change and Bio-energy.” World foodgrain stocks are at historic lows and there is enough only for three months. World over, food prices have almost doubled in the last three years, threatening to push 100 million people into absolute poverty. The threat of hunger and malnutrition is growing. Millions of the world’s most vulnerable people are at risk. World over, the prices of basic staples – wheat, corn, rice – are at record highs, up 50 per cent or more in the past one year. According to the FAO Director General, Jacques Diouf, the world has 4-5 million tonnes of cereals stocks that can feed the global population for only 8-12 weeks. He attributed the increasing demand from developing countries, particularly in China and India, and diversion of food grains towards production of bio-fuels, to rising commodity prices across the world. According to an estimate, during 2007, the United States has used about one fourth of the total maize production (100 million tonnes) and 20 per cent of soybean oil for the production of bio-fuels. The bio-diesel industry last year used 60 per cent of the rapeseed output in the European Union. As maize is diverted for ethanol production, large quantities of wheat are being diverted for animal feeding. The world food situation is very serious today with food riots reported from many countries like Egypt, Cameroon, Haiti, Burkina Faso and Senegal, and if the foodgrain situation does not improve then food riots may spread to other countries. The other causes range from rising demand and weather-related events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts that have devastated harvests in many parts of the world. Panic buying and hoarding of the foodgrains and other articles are also making the situation worse. Countries with crop surpluses are also taking contingency measures and as a consequence 40 countries have imposed some kind of export restraints, thus aggravating the situation further. An estimated 850 million people in the world today suffer from hunger. Of these, about 820 million live in developing countries. Around 852 million people, out of 6.35 billion in the world are undernourished due to extreme poverty. The World Food Summit held in 1996 had an important objective of reducing hunger by 2015 but the goal seems to be difficult to achieve. According to the survey of the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO), 26.1 per cent of the Indian population lives below the poverty line. Although malnutrition for India has fallen from 11.1 per cent in 1991-92 to a remarkable 6.4 per cent in 2000-02, this can be explained as due to increased consumption of milk, animal protein, fruits and vegetables. As estimated by the National Commission on Population, the country’s population is expected to touch 1.33 billion by 2020-21 and the demand for foodgrains around 280 million tonnes. This means that foodgrain production has to grow by 2 per cent a year over the next decade. The Central Government has launched various schemes like National Food Security Mission, Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana, National Horticulture Mission, National Agriculture Extension System to increase public investment in agriculture and rapid dissemination of technology. All these efforts are targeted to maximise returns to farmers and to boost the foodgrain production. Foodgrain production in 2007-08 touched a record high of 227.32 million tonnes. Agricultural and allied activities grew by 4.5 per cent as against the previous year’s growth of 3.8 per cent, thus boosting the growth rate of the GDP to perhaps 9.0 per cent in 2007-08. The upward swing in the growth rate is mainly on account of record foodgrain production. These figures are really encouraging as the world is today grappling with the shortage of foodgrains. Further, the flagship scheme of loan waiver of the central government with benefit of Rs 71,000 crores to 4.3 crore farmers will further instil the confidence among the farmers. The Ministry of Agriculture has also expressed confidence about good foodgrain production during 2008-09 as the Meteorological Department has forecast ‘near normal’ southwest monsoon, indicating that rainfall for the country as a whole would be good. The challenge of maintaining a balance between human numbers and the capacity to produce food is increasing in our country day by day. In 2007-08, record wheat production of 76.78 million tonnes was achieved and this has resulted in record procurement of more than 200 lakh tonnes by the FCI, well above the target of 150 lakh tonnes. In a scenario of food crisis world over, buoyancy in foodgrain production in India has certainly brought cheers to the planners. India has food grain surplus over the buffer norms as on April 1, 2008. According to the Food Corporation of India, the wheat stock as on April 1 is 5.5 MT against the buffer norm of 4 MT and this stock is certainly going up with record procurement of wheat this year. Scarcity of food is a global problem but India is least affected.
The writer is a scientist with the Dr.Y.S. Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Solan, Himachal Pradesh. Views expressed are personal. |
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Move to raise rural intake for agriculture course THE
prestigious college of Agriculture is the major college of Punjab Agricultural University, and among the oldest colleges in India. The alumni of this college have made remarkable and momentous contributions not only in teaching and research leading to enhanced and sustained production of crops and animals, but also in the administrative, civil and defence services of the country and abroad. Historically, the college used to get students with rural and farming background, based on marks obtained in the matriculation examination (10th grade). In 1986-87, Entrance Test-based admission to B.Sc. Agri. (Honours) degree programme was initiated, where besides its 75 per cent weightage, sports, rural background and interview carried 25 per cent weightage. In 1989-90, the qualifying examination to entry to B.Sc. Agri. (Honours) degree programme was changed from 10th to 10+2, as was implemented for other degree courses in the country. However, in the following year, the 9 per cent weightage of interview, which was held for assessing the suitability and inclination of candidates towards agriculture, was struck off. In 1994, in a historic judgement of the Punjab and Haryana High Court, the weightages prescribed for rural background and education were struck down. Henceforth, the Entrance Test was given 100 per cent weightage for admission. The standard of education in rural areas kept on deteriorating during the last three decades. On the other hand, the standard of education in urban areas improved significantly besides parents’ extra care and concern, and their ability to pay hefty fees in private schools and towards tuitions. All these factors led to a situation where candidates from rural areas had the poorest performance in the Entrance Test and urbanites increasingly took a major share of seats in B.Sc. Agri. (Honours) degree programme. For instance, of the total number of students admitted in 2006-07 in B.Sc. Agri. (Honours), only 8 per cent had passed 10th and/or 10+2, from rural schools. A few states like Karnataka have made some reservation for rural students through legislation. We are also in the process of approaching the Punjab state government for the same. Under the guidance of Dr Manjit Singh Kang, Vice-Chancellor, PAU, Ludhiana, special efforts are being made to promote the intake of rural students in agriculture, which includes a 6-year B.Sc. Agri. (Honours) degree programme commencing from this year (2008-09). This programme has 40 seats which will be filled on the basis of marks obtained in 10th standard without any entrance examination. Admission will be done on the basis of (a) marks obtained by students in matriculation and (b) marks obtained in interview. The last date to fill the application form for admission in the 6-year B.Sc. Agri. (Honours) degree programme is June 9, 2008. In case any student fails to fill the form before the due date, he/she can submit the application form with a late fee before June 17, 2008 to the office of Registrar, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana.
The writer is Dean, College of Agriculture, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana. |
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Inside Pakistan Will Pakistan ever have judicial independence? With the lawyers’ movement for the restoration of the deposed judges acquiring political overtones, many people now wonder if judicial independence can ever be thought of in a country which has not seen it in its 60-plus years of existence. It is like chasing the mirage. In an informative article in Dawn (June 2), S. G. Jilanee says, "That Mr Chaudhry’s reinstatement (as Chief Justice) deserves unqualified support is, of course, beyond question, because his removal was a case of blatant abuse of authority by General Musharraf. But to treat as synonymous with judicial independence is sheer hokum and a cruel joke. "… Mr Chaudhry’s display of ‘independence’ has been Musharraf-specific. The big question is, will he (indeed, can he) demonstrate the same ‘independence’ vis-à-vis Nawaz Sharif, who has staked his political power to resurrect him and who can send ruffians to chase a too-independent chief justice out of office?" In any case, as Daily Times (June 2) says, "Because the PPP is not willing to restore the judges with an executive order and get rid of the judges now officiating, the whole corpus of reform aimed at making the judiciary really independent is threatened by default." The cause of judicial independence is getting so much support mainly because it suits the drive to show President Musharraf the door. How far the judiciary is allowed to function independently in Pakistan will be known only when such a situation comes to prevail. Poor country Pakistan’s economy is in tatters. During the last 10 years it has grown at 4.8 per cent. This is a downhill journey. According to Business Recorder (June 2), “Pakistan’s growth rate between 1980 and 2006 was an average of 5.1 per cent and between 1960 and 2006 it was 5.5 per cent. Adjusted for the rate of increase in population, per capita growth was 2.5 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively, during these two periods.” The financial daily gave these details in the context of an assessment of the country’s economy by the Washington-based Commission on Growth and Development, an independent organisation that functions from the headquarters of the World Bank. The commission’s latest report, according to the Recorder, has it that Pakistan will take 159 years to reach the level of economic growth in industrialised nations. This means, perhaps, never. Earlier, the economy of Pakistan suffered mainly because of political instability. But for a few years religious extremism and terrorism have emerged as new factors harming it considerably. In such a situation, it is not surprising if the country has widespread poverty. According to an article by Nadeem Ul Haque in The News (June 3), “Pakistan has many poverty-reduction projects. There are many consultants and NGOs who become rich through these poverty-reduction projects, and there are many project implementation units. Yet poverty does not decrease.” In his view, “…the rich do not live in Pakistan…Truly, they live overseas… They visit Dubai and London very frequently where they shop and enjoy themselves.” Terror in Islamabad Religious extremism and terrorism, which have made life difficult in Pakistan, are now being realised as the products of Islamabad’s own shortsighted policies. These are the biggest roadblocks in the way of the country’s economic advancement. The gun culture that came into being because of the use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy has now degenerated into suicide bombings. And in a country where the number of the poor is increasing fast, it is not difficult to find recruits for this dirty job. The situation is getting horrifying. That is why even a newspaper like The Nation, known for its conservative views, has forcefully decried Monday’s suicide bomb blast near the Danish Embassy in Islamabad. The paper says, “The suicide bombing outside the Danish Embassy … that killed eight persons and wounded five others must be condemned.” “The police chief rightly confessed that it was a security lapse. Certainly, there is a lot more to be done to make our cities safe from the threat of such bomb attacks”, The Nation said. According to an editorial in The News, “In the long run, of course, much more needs to be done to tackle extremism. This latest blast proves that it (terrorism) lives in our midst, and that suicide bombers can strike at random.” |
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