 |
|
Birth of a Republic Justice at last |
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Wages of
promise
Pakistan’s deals
with militants
Meditation
— Army way
Floundering on
defence The limits of Western
influence on Pakistan Scramble for Arctic
oil reserves
|
Birth of a Republic With
Nepal being declared a republic and the monarchy abolished, the country has moved into another era. The sun has set on the 239-year-old monarchy to herald a new democratic order. The newly elected members of the Constituent Assembly, who took their oath of office on Tuesday, are determined to erase the last traces of a monarchy and make King Gyanendra leave the palace. As the Constituent Assembly, elected on April 10, prepares to start work on the writing of a new statue, for the first time in its history, Nepal will choose both a head of state and a head of government based on the people’s verdict. With that, the peace process — which brought the Maoists to the political mainstream and gave them a majority in the Constituent Assembly — will enter a new stage for the transformation of Nepal. One of the world’s poorest countries will be, thus, freed from the albatross the monarchy had become with its corrupt despotism sustaining a feudal order out of step with modern times and popular aspirations. The first part of the peace process was successfully concluded when the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) ended its decade-long insurgency and entered electoral politics on a winning note. Despite the present difficulties faced by the Maoists in forming the government, there appears to be no way that the CPN(M) leader, Prachanda, can be thwarted from taking office. The Maoists have won the mandate, and democratic principles require that the largest party leads the new government. Few will mourn the demise of the monarchy or the departure of Gyanendra. He has already been stripped of all his powers, including command of the army. His portraits have been removed from public spaces as well as from the country’s currency notes. The government, the army and the airline have also shed the “royal” prefix. All that remains is for this man to call it quits, and let the parties elected by the people get on with the avowed task of building a new Nepal.
|
|
Justice at last The
conviction of Vikas Yadav and Vishal Yadav in the Nitish Katara murder case by Delhi trial court judge Ravinder Kaur will help restore people’s faith and confidence in the judiciary. Vikas, presently serving a four-year jail term for his role in the Jessica Lall murder case, killed Nitish who had an affair with Bharti Yadav, his sister. The quantum of punishment is likely to be pronounced on May 30. The two accused deserve the maximum punishment for murder, abduction and destruction of evidence. Like the Jessica Lall and Priyadarshini Mattoo cases, the Nitish Katara murder too shook the nation’s conscience. The media stood behind Neelam Katara in her lone fight for justice and bringing her son’s killers to book. Powerful mafia dons and politicians tried their best to subvert justice. Neelam, wife of a senior IAS officer who died during the trial, refused to be cowed by the harassment and threats of the Yadavs. Vikas is the son of D.P. Yadav, a former MP, who is an example of the nexus between crime and politics and has wielded muscle power in western UP. Since 1978, D.P. Yadav had been charged with attempted murder, illicit liquor business, extortion and nexus with goondas and gangsters. An embarrassed BJP leadership, after admitting him to the party in 2004, was forced to dump him following a media outcry. Incidentally, Vikas killed Nitish when he was on bail. Known for his arrogance and abrasive behaviour, he once slapped a photographer in the trial court. The case had witnessed several twists and turns in the past six years. As Yadavs and cronies were tampering with the evidence and influencing witnesses, the court transferred the case from Uttar Pradesh to Delhi at Neelam’s request. Bharti Yadav’s long absence from the country was conspicuous. It was only after the Ministry of External Affairs impounded her passport that she came to Delhi from London and deposed before the court. Her replies to the court were vague, but she never denied her affair with Nitish and the letters they exchanged. The prosecution used parts of her statements to prove her close relationship with Nitish. By convicting the kin of D.P. Yadav, Judge Ravinder Kaur has sent a strong message that killers like Vikas, however powerful and influential, deserve no sympathy from society or law.
|
|
Wages of promise RAJASTHAN Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje has smartly and ingeniously thrown the Gujjar ball into the Centre’s court. In a letter to the Prime Minister, she has suggested that the Gujjar community be included in the category of denotified class of tribals/nomadic tribes and given 4 to 6 per cent reservation in jobs and admissions. The Gujjars want inclusion of their community in the Scheduled Tribe category so that they have access to all jobs and other quotas reserved for the STs. The Chief Minister would certainly know that her proposal is unlikely to find favour with the judiciary which has already put a ceiling on reservation — it should not exceed 50 per cent. She should realise that the agitation, which has already taken a heavy toll of lives and disrupted rail traffic in several parts of the country, is the price her party has to pay for its own lopsided policies and delayed responses. It is well known that the BJP had during the last elections promised Scheduled Tribe status to the Gujjars with a view to garnering their votes. Having made such a promise, its government cannot renege on it on the ground that the Jasraj Chopra Committee which looked into the demand had turned it down. A sympathetic study of the socio-economic conditions of Gujjars would suggest that they have a genuine case for reservation. It becomes stronger when their condition is compared to that of another community — Meenas — which has a large presence in the bureaucracy. However sympathetic the nation may be to the Gujjars’ cause, it cannot support any action that brings life to a standstill. From this point of view, few will find fault with the government’s decision to invoke the National Security Act in 15 districts of the state, though strong arm methods alone cannot solve the problem. Instead of sitting on prestige or passing the buck to the Centre, the state government should invite the Gujjars for talks so that a formula that will do justice to them can be thrashed out. After all, the problem is state-specific and a solution has to be found within the state.
|
|
There’s a man all over for you, blaming on his boots the faults of his feet. — Samuel Beckett
|
Pakistan’s deals with militants External
Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s visit to Islamabad predictably did not produce any spectacular “breakthrough”. As an experienced politician, he prudently made it clear before his visit that he was undertaking his trip primarily to get a feel of the new “democratic” dispensation’s priorities and policies. It was only appropriate that he met the embattled and politically weakened President Musharraf, senior government leaders, including Prime Minister Gilani, and the political troika of Mr Asif Zardari of the PPP, Mr Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League (N) and Mr Asfandyar Wali Khan of the Awami National Party (ANP). But New Delhi would have to recognise that given the political volatility, the economic downturn and the precarious security situation, the Army led by Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani is again the centre of power in Pakistan. The realities of power in Pakistan were symbolised by two recent events, which raised eyebrows, even within Pakistan. The first was a call by Prime Minister Gilani to the Army’s General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, during which the Prime Minister referred to the Army not merely as the defender of Pakistan’s borders, but also as the guardian of the country’s “ideological frontiers”, thereby conceding to the Army a permanent political role in the country. Worse still, accompanied by Mr Asif Zardari and his Foreign and Defence Ministers, Prime Minister Gilani also visited the headquarters of the ISI and was briefed by ISI Chief Lt-Gen Nadeem Taj about the external and internal security environment, thereby acknowledging that this Army outfit, and not the civilian-run Intelligence Bureau, would continue its role of dabbling in the internal politics of the country. With Mr Nawaz Sharif having directed ministers from his PML (N) to resign over differences on the restoration of judges sacked by General Musharraf, Prime Minister Gilani heads a virtual minority government in Pakistan. He has to prepare for the eventuality that he may be forced to break bread with the pro-Musharraf faction of the Muslim League, the PML (Q), for him and the PPP to continue in office. Even before Mr Mukherjee arrived in Islamabad, General Kiyani had made his views of dialogue with India on Jammu and Kashmir clear, stating, while visiting his troops on the LoC, that in keeping with the sentiments of the people of Pakistan, its Army would never “turn its back” on the aspirations of the people of Kashmir. Taking the cue from their powerful Army Chief, politicians of all colours joined the chorus, vowing to fight for a plebiscite and UN resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir. Prime Minister Gilani followed suit, describing President Musharraf’s proposals to resolve the Kashmir issue, which had constituted the basis of the dialogue with India for the past three years, as “half-baked”. This rhetoric continued through Mr Mukherjee’s visit. It is the manifestation of the Manmohan Singh government’s weakness that despite such rhetoric, no Indian, functionary set the record straight by asserting that the Indian government is bound by the provisions of the parliamentary resolution of 1994, which declares the whole State of Jammu and Kashmir as an integral part of India, and that Pakistan will have to vacate areas of the state occupied by it. Any dialogue that the government undertakes to promote what Pakistan Foreign Minister Qureshi refers to as “innovative” proposals will have to be without prejudice to the provisions of the 1994 parliamentary resolution. Despite these developments, Mr Mukherjee’s visit was of symbolic significance, signalling to the people in Pakistan and the international community that India remains committed to dialogue, peace and cooperation with its turbulent western neighbour. New Delhi will go some way in addressing the aspirations in the Kashmir valley if it eases counter-productive restrictions on trade and travel across the Line of Control. On the positive side, both Mr Zardari and Mr Nawaz Sharif have called for easing travel restrictions and promoting trade and economic cooperation. India will have to be more pro-active in promoting people-to-people contacts, easing visa procedures and in promoting trust and confidence. But there are also dark clouds on the horizon that cannot be ignored. Apart from the infiltration bid in Samba and the ceasefire violations on the LoC by the Pakistan Army, there are credible reports of around 500 jihadis being readied for infiltration across the LoC. The United Jihad Council, which coordinates terrorist violence across the LoC, has been activated. Maulana Masood Azhar, the leader of the Jaish-e-Mohammed, which masterminded the attack on India’s Parliament, has been released and is spewing venom against India. The chief of the Lashkar-e-taiba, Hafiz Mohammed Sayeed, is doing likewise. Leaders of the separatist Hurriyat Conference are scheduled to visit Pakistan next month. The ISI appears to be moving to disrupt the forthcoming elections in Jammu and Kashmir Even as Mr Mukherjee was in Islamabad, the ANP-led provincial government was finalising a “peace deal” with pro-Taliban militants led by Maulana Fazlullah in Swat. The deal included provisions that the militants would not carry guns in public, refrain from training suicide bombers and would not enforce bans on educational institutions for girls, on barber shops and on playing music, in return for a pledge by the government to implement Sharia law in Swat. The Army is trying to negotiate a similar deal with pro-Taliban militants, who, are also providing shelter to Al-Qaeda leaders in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. Despite the Army’s best efforts, Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud has proclaimed: “Islam does not recognise frontiers. Jihad in Afghanistan (against the Americans) will continue”. With the Pashtun tribals refusing to recognise the frontier with Afghanistan, the Durand Line, has, for all practical purposes, ceased to exist — a development that will have serious, long-term implications for Pakistan’s unity and territorial integrity unless handled sensitively. Pakistan is today paying a high price for its efforts to make Afghanistan a client state by supporting radical Islamic groups, including the Taliban, in Afghanistan — groups which will inevitably remain internationally isolated and predominantly dependent on Pakistan. The US is preparing for the next major terrorist strike on its soil to be planned and executed from Pakistan’s troubled western frontiers with Afghanistan. On February 15 the US Director of Intelligence, Admiral Michael McConnell, told the Senate Intelligence Committee that the US had noted an increasing influx of new Al-Qaeda recruits into Pakistan’s tribal areas, adding: “Radical elements have the potential to undermine the country’s (Pakistan’s) cohesiveness”. With the Americans getting impatient at Pakistan’s inability and unwillingness to prevent attacks on NATO forces in Afghanistan from its tribal areas, Pakistan’s rulers are going to face turbulent times on their western
frontiers.
|
Meditation — Army way This
is a true incident of early 1972. In the western theatre we had captured most of Shakargarh Bulge. Our Artillery Regiment was “in direct support” of an infantry brigade during the war and this affiliation remained in place till end-72 when we handed back the captured areas to Pakistan. This affiliation was marked with camaraderie and bonhomie interspersed with leg pulling. Our battery commander, Maj JK Vasdhani (JK for short) was a grizzled, serious looking person but with a fantastic sense of humour though occasionally sardonic. He was able to convince outsiders of what to us (his juniors) seemed ludicrous. He enjoyed a lively rapport with the supported infantry battalion commanding officer (CO). I was one of the forward observation officers (FOO) and our gun position officer (GPO) was young Lt SS Singh (Shashank Shekhar Singh, later the UP Cabinet Secretary with the Mayawati Government). SS as we called him was very enterprising and Maj JK gave him an unusual task when SS proceeded on a short leave to Lucknow during Feb 72. The results of this enterprise were highlighted during one of our regular get-togethers in the battalion officers mess after return of S.S. Major JK on entering the mess and after exchanging the usual pleasantries suddenly went into a “silent mode”. The CO tried to converse with JK. Each time JK would put his fingers on his lips and then point to his nameplate. It was slightly larger than the usual nameplate worn by officers but it had a shutter on the lower half below his name. We were aghast at JK’s actions. JK again pointed at the shutter and we looked closer to see a “OUT” in the open half of the shutter. After agonising minutes of silence he moved the shutter to ‘IN’ position and started conversing with the CO. He convinced the CO that an Army order had been issued which laid down that all ‘field officers’ (Officers with the rank of Majors and above) were to use these shuttered name plates. Whenever these field officers wanted to meditate/contemplate they could shift the shutter to “OUT” position and this was to imply that they were not to be disturbed. The CO took JK’s word and started berating his Adjutant as to how the gunners had this Army order and why had they not received the same. The Adjutant called up the brigade and there was reasonable amount of confusion at the brigade and battalion for the next few hours. During the dinner get-together JK entered the mess with a ration (Meat on hoof — Army parlance) Bakra in tow and after handing the bakra over to the CO he followed it up by shifting the shutter to ‘IN’ position and let out a loud guffaw. What followed was a boisterous evening set in motion by scotch for all by JK and a pat for SS for getting the shutter name
plate.
|
Floundering on defence Four
years ago, when the new ruling coalition, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), had finalised its common minimum programme (CMP) for governance, the formulation contained a few brief paragraphs on foreign policy and national security. The CMP accorded a very high priority to defence modernisation and promised to eliminate delays and ensure that allotted funds were “spent fully at the earliest”. The coalition declared that it would make the National Security Council (NSC) a “professional and effective institution” and would appoint a full-time National Security Advisor (NSA). It also held out the assurance that “there will be no compromise in the fight against terrorism”, expressed concern at the manner in which the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) had been misused, and proposed to repeal it. The CMP also spelt out its intention to establish a new Department of Ex-Servicemen’s Welfare and proclaimed that the “long-pending issue of one-rank, one-pension will be re-examined.” The section on foreign policy dwelt on the UPA government’s intention to “maintain the independence of India’s foreign policy stance on all regional and global issues” while pursuing “closer strategic and economic engagement with the USA.” The new government said that it would “accord the highest priority to building closer political, economic and other ties with its neighbours in South Asia.” It would continue a systematic dialogue with Pakistan “on a sustained basis,” support peace talks in Sri Lanka, further expand trade and investment with China and “seriously” pursue talks on the border issue. Perhaps in deference to the Left Parties’ anti-nuclear sentiments, the CMP made no mention of the UPA’s stand on India’s nuclear policy of credible minimum deterrence and strategy of no first use. All of the aims and objectives contained in the CMP were unexceptionable and were generally in line with the stated positions of the Congress and the Left Parties with only minor variations. This appeared to augur well for a national consensus on major foreign policy and security issues as it was considered unlikely that the constituents of the outgoing National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would have objections to any of the provisions spelt out in the CMP. However, with only one year of the UPA’s five-year term remaining, the implementation of the CMP has been lackluster. Sadly, the lack of political consensus has almost checkmated the UPA government’s most importance foreign policy and national security initiative – the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement. Despite the almost unanimous approval accorded to this agreement by the nuclear scientists, the leading lights among the members of the strategic community – including former Generals, Admirals and Marshals, diplomats and academics, and the irrefutable logic of obtaining uranium supplies and nuclear reactor technology quickly to further India’s nuclear energy programme, India’s political class has allowed coalition politics to prevail over national interest. The stubborn resistance of the Left Parties and the incomprehensible vacillation of the BJP and some of its NDA allies have stymied a key initiative that would have set India firmly on the road to world power status and pulled it out of the doghouse of nuclear apartheid and a disadvantageous technology denial regime. Only a political miracle can now salvage this deal before a new US Administration takes office in January 2009. Much still needs to be done to improve long-term defence planning and inter-ministerial coordination for the holistic assessment of emerging threats and challenges. The evolution of a comprehensive National Security Strategy (NSS) is a mandatory pre-requisite for the armed forces to plan their force structures and weapons and equipment acquisitions to meet future challenges. The first step in the NSS process is to conduct an inter-departmental Strategic Defence Review with multi-agency inputs. This must be ordered post haste by the National Security Council that has at long last begun to meet fairly regularly to consider the formulations and proposals of the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) and the Strategic Policy Group
(SPG). The NDA government had dragged its feet on some important measures despite the recommendations made by its own Group of Ministers that had reviewed the suggestions of the four task forces formed after the Kargil Review Committee Report was submitted. The UPA government has also ignored these issues completely. These include the creation of a post of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) to provide single-point military advice to the Cabinet Committee on Security and the genuine integration of the headquarters (HQ) of the three Services with the Ministry of Defence. Equally important for efficient functioning is the need for the government to delegate responsibility for the financial management of the revenue budget to the Services HQ. The modernisation plans of the three Services are continuing to stagnate, raising the spectre of being out gunned by the Pakistanis some time in the future, even as China is gradually converting its quantitative superiority to a qualitative edge and tightening the screws in its strategic encirclement of India. Another important measure that is being glossed over is to raise the defence budget from the present abysmally low level of less than 2.0 per cent of the GDP to first 3.0 per cent and then gradually to 3.5 per cent, a figure the Indian economy can easily sustain. The Finance Minister must ratify his predecessor’s decision to institute a rolling, non-lapsable defence modernisation fund of Rs. 25,000 crore by incorporating it in the defence budget for the year 2008-09. The UPA government has its work cut out for its last year in office and Defence Minster A K Antony must take up the cudgels in right earnest - if this government is to leave a positive mark on India’s defence preparedness before it demits office.
|
|
The limits of Western influence on Pakistan Moral
talk masks political considerations more often than not. Sometimes it is even a cover for recognising the realities on the ground. The reality on the Afghan ground is that the US and Britain are fighting an unwinnable war. That may be why British Foreign Secretary David Miliband told the Americans on May 22 that Britain’s top priorities are Afghanistan and Pakistan, and that, inspired by ‘a sense of moral duty to act abroad in support of democracy and human rights’, he advised the US that politics – and not military means alone – is required to address underlying causes of insecurity, London supports the May 22 agreement between the recently elected civilian government led by Yusuf Raza Gilani and Pashtun leaders in north-western Pakistan, which has been a hotbed of the extremist operations that have come close to derailing Nato’s anti-terrorist campaign in Afghanistan. Pakistan will now withdraw troops from the area and allow the introduction of sharia law there; in return the Taliban will stop their suicide bombings. In contrast, the Bush administration is uncomfortable with the olive branch extended by the Gilani government to militants. Previous agreements broke down because they turned out to be a mere truce for extremists. Washington has also invoked its own moral imperative against negotiations. The gung-ho Bush administration opposed the parleys because it believes that negotiating with extremists is an evil in itself. Miliband believes that ‘supporting democracy means supporting principles not personalities, institutions not individuals’. The clear inference is that President Musharraf is no longer London’s reliable ally in Islamabad. This is just as well, since his government trained and exported militants to Afghanistan, even while the west praised him, probably because it could see no alternative to him. Last December Musharraf doffed his uniform for civvies, under popular pressure, in order to remain Pakistan’s head of state. Since then at least two new power-brokers have emerged in Islamabad. One is Musharraf’s successor as Commander-in-Chief, General Ashfaq Kiyani, the other is
Gilani. The divisions within the government, and the military’s longstanding involvement in politics, will assure the army’s continuing primacy. So part of the problem is that no one really knows who comprises “Islamabad”, or on what “principles” their “institutions” will be built. Kiyani’s support for the talks has sounded the alarm-bells in Washington. It means that Kiyani’s army – unlike Musharraf’s – may not follow the American leader unquestioningly. Kiyani knows that bombing the north-west at America’s behest alienated the tribals and pushed them into allying with extremists. Extremists cannot thrive without a measure of local support: it is with that support that they have inflicted casualties on the Pakistani army, damaging its morale, and making Pakistan’s own establishment – including Benazir Bhutto – the target of their suicide bombings. So Kiyani, like Gilani, doesn’t want to continue with the failed policy of trying to bomb the tribals into submission. Nor does the army see why it should continue fighting America’s war. Their priority is to defend Pakistan; they don’t see why they should fight al-Qaida or the Taliban to safeguard America’s interests by propping up President Karzai, whom they perceive as a western stooge. Military, civilian government and public opinion coincide on these issues, and the talks with extremists have had popular support. The agreement must be given a chance, because it presents an opportunity to drive a wedge between the “eternal extremists” and those who could swing over to the government’s side – if they are handled carefully and shown some generosity. The stick cannot be discarded, but the carrots must be offered. Gilani and Kiyani are thinking on the right lines, if only because there is little point in pursuing an unpopular strategy that has exacerbated Pakistan’s insecurity. The Bush administration, Britain, and post-electoral “Islamabad” may be dealing with one other at cross-purposes. American military and economic largesse to Pakistan – $10 billion since 2001 – have strengthened Washington’s clout over Islamabad. And another $ 7 billion are in the offing as a democracy dividend. Britain will not be able to offer as much. Its aid for the period between 2008 and 2011 will be doubled to ?481 million. The best that Miliband can hope to do – as London has often tried through the Anglo-American relationship – is to influence the Bush administration into giving the new “Islamabad” the peace a chance. If Miliband does not succeed in that London will have to choose between annoying the Americans, or going along with the US.
|
|
Scramble for Arctic oil reserves Denmark
is to launch an effort to calm the scramble for the Arctic, bringing together the five coastal nations competing for what are believed to be the largest unclaimed reserves of oil and gas left on the planet. The gathering in Greenland begins in the shadow of a new “oil shock” as soaring prices force governments to reassess their energy policies and heat up already feverish interest in who owns the seabed beneath the Arctic Ocean. The issue has already been pushed to the fore as rising temperatures melt ever larger sections of the polar ice sheet and scientists warn that climate change could result in sea ice cover disappearing altogether within a generation. The Danes hope the meeting will see all parties agree to a UN-brokered solution rather than a free-for-all over possible oil riches and commercially valuable sea routes such as the recently thawed North West Passage. So far the race for the Arctic has been limited to posturing, with Russia deploying an experimental submarine to plant a flag on the seabed close to the magnetic pole, while Denmark has pinned its colours to the frozen Hans Island and Canada has conducted military exercises further into the frozen north than ever before. Both Norway and the US are thought to be considering their own challenge for sovereignty under the UN Law of the Seas convention, meant to govern territorial claims over the continental shelf. The argument over who owns the Arctic has come down to a technical squabble over which country is best connected to one of several undersea mountain ranges that extend towards the North Pole. Under the 1982 UN convention, coastal states own the seabed beyond existing 200 nautical mile zones if it is part of a continental shelf of shallower waters. “The Law of the Sea Convention will basically give most of the Arctic Ocean bed to the five countries, but it is also likely that there will be two smaller areas that will not be controlled by any country,” said Lars Kullerud, president of the University of the Arctic, an international co-operative network based in the circumpolar region. Despite shrinking ice cover, it will be decades before it is possible to extract oil from areas beyond the existing territorial waters. The decision to go ahead with the meeting with only five of the eight Arctic nations, excluding Sweden, Iceland and Finland has prompted an angry response, as has the absence of a voice for the Inuit – the indigenous people who make up the majority of the people within the Arctic Circle. Inuit groups and environmentalists have led calls for an international treaty modelled on Antarctica, which bans all military activity and mineral exploitation. Greenland itself, where the meeting is being held, is still a self-governed province of Denmark. Denmark has urged all of those involved to abide by UN rules on territorial claims and hopes to sign a declaration that the international body would rule on the disputes. By arrangement with
The Independent
|
| HOME PAGE | |
Punjab | Haryana | Jammu & Kashmir |
Himachal Pradesh | Regional Briefs |
Nation | Opinions | | Business | Sports | World | Letters | Chandigarh | Ludhiana | Delhi | | Calendar | Weather | Archive | Subscribe | Suggestion | E-mail | |
