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State of peace Too many tainted |
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Blow to cricket
Threat from Islamists
My father’s accounts!
News analysis Environmentally sensitive Bhutan on the brink Chatterati
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State of peace PRIME MINISTER Manmohan Singh’s recent two-day visit to Jammu and Kashmir will be remembered as much for the projects he inaugurated as for the memorable lines he spoke on those occasions. If in the past the state evoked fears of cross-border terrorism and infiltration across the Line of Control, this time what engaged the attention of the Prime Minister was the “cross-LoC connectivity” established by the government. The confidence-building measures taken by India and Pakistan have resulted in better understanding of each other’s problems by those living on both sides of the LoC. It is no longer difficult for families divided by Partition to come together, thanks to the bus service that links the divided land. Introduction of such services on more routes and simplifying the procedures for issuance of travel permits will result in greater movement of people across the LoC. Elections in Pakistan have resulted in a democratic regime which, unlike a military dictator, can understand the dynamics of Indian democracy better. As Dr Manmohan Singh has pointed out, democracy in Pakistan has kindled hopes in India that the two countries are now in a better position to tackle the problems that exist in their bilateral relations. Pakistani leaders, too, have veered round to the view that the Kashmir issue should not stand in the way of strengthening their relations, an opinion India has always subscribed to. The importance of people-to-people contacts and trade and cultural exchanges cannot be overemphasised in an era of globalisation when borders have lost their relevance. Peace in Kashmir is central to normalisation of India-Pakistan relations. It is in this context the Prime Minister’s statement that there is need for more confidence-building measures should be seen. It may be premature to call J&K a land of peace but it is no longer a land of terror and mayhem it once used to be. The state will soon be going to the polls to elect a new government in place of the one that has more or less completed its full term. The abiding faith of the Kashmiris in democracy strengthens the case for better “cross-LoC connectivity”. This will lead to what Dr Manmohan Singh calls “lasting peace, tangible security and palpable stability” in Jammu and Kashmir, and better India-Pakistan relations.
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Too many tainted THE Punjab government has submitted to the Punjab and Haryana High Court a list of 25 IAS and 10 IPS officers against whom criminal, vigilance and departmental cases are pending. Though the list of tainted officers, given on the directions of Justice H.S Bhalla, has not been updated due to lack of sufficient time, as is claimed by the government authorities, it is still quite large. Despite inquiries being ordered into charges against them, the officers have been given plum postings. Though their guilt is yet to be proved in court, it is well known how powerful IAS/IPS officers are. Given the systemic shield the IAS officers have raised for themselves, protection of one another’s interests within the fraternity and their clout with the political leadership, they quite often manage to escape punitive action. Being well versed with the functioning of the complicated official machinery and cumbersome rules and regulations, they know the escape routes all too well. The bureaucratic mindset is colonial. It is common for IAS and IPS officers to suspend junior employees working under them over minor issues, but when it comes to members of the elite civil services found on the wrong side of the law, different yardsticks are applied. Their suspension is rare and conviction still rarer. It will be equally interesting to make public a list of offending officers, their crime and punishment, if any. At the state level, particularly in Punjab, the bureaucracy is politicised. Politicians tend to target officers who refuse to oblige them. Officers are not given postings on merit, but on the basis of their political or group loyalty. Now that the Sixth Pay Commission report is awaiting implementation, it is time the government clears the bureaucratic mess, simplifies the system, introduces transparency and ensures accountability of the bureaucracy. Doubts have often been raised about its performance. The Prime Minister has tried to reform the system, but change is not yet visible at the grassroots level.
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Blow to cricket Harbhajan Singh
has done it again, and should find it difficult to escape the severe punishment he fully deserves. The offence of hitting a player or an official under the ICC Code of Conduct invites a minimum of a five-Test or 10 ODI-ban, and the maximum of a life ban. Match referee Farokh Engineer, who was in charge of the Indian Premier League (IPL) match the night Harbhajan slapped S. Sreesanth, has made it clear that the adjudication on Monday will be under the same code. Reports indicate that television footage obtained from the broadcasters show Harbhajan hitting Sreesanth, based on which the Mumbai Indians captain was suspended pending enquiry. The BCCI had taken pains to ensure that the IPL is played in the “true spirit of cricket”, even asking the franchisee captains to ceremoniously sign declarations on the opening night. Sachin Tendulkar signed it for the Mumbai Indians, and as both stand-in captain and a senior player, Harbhajan had the responsibility to uphold it. By his action, he has failed both his national and IPL teams, his fans, and the board which stood by him so staunchly when he was alleged to have made racist comments in Australia. There has been much speculation about the degree of provocation that Harbhajan might have faced during the match, and what exactly was said to him by Sreesanth during the post-match handshake routine when the incident occurred. On their part, Sreesanth’s team, the King’s XI Punjab, in their official complaint, stressed the “unprovoked” nature of the attack. Some of the speculation, surprisingly, has even bordered on the “crimininalise the victim” mentality. The two players’ subsequent, rather farcical, claims of “brotherhood” notwithstanding, the fact remains that a physical assault took place, and the BCCI only has to decide on the severity of the punishment. There are also lessons to be drawn about team harmony and what constitutes true sporting aggression on the field, as against crass or crude behaviour, and that can come later.
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I have no other but a woman’s reason: I think him so, because I think him so. — William Shakespeare
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Threat from Islamists
With
regime change, Pakistan’s participation in the war on terror has reached the proverbial roundabout. There are now three roads before the new government. the first continues straight along the path Pakistan had taken when President Pervez Musharraf was in the driving seat. the second is the path of “strategic defiance” and will mean succumbing to the demands of the Islamists and transforming Pakistan into a jihadi state. the third road combines compromise with confrontation. This involves making critical changes in the current policy in an effort to try and divide the ranks of the combatants and first isolate and eventually eliminate the recalcitrant elements among the Islamist insurgents. The first option can be safely ruled out. The “unstinted support” given to the US-led war on terror by the previous government is deeply unpopular and is seen as serving US, and not Pakistani, interests. Partly because of the widespread public perception that the war on terror is, in fact, a war against Islam, and partly because there was no serious attempt to evolve a political consensus behind the policy, no political party is ready to take its ownership. In any case, the Musharraf policy has failed to deliver, not because it was faulty but because the absence of popular support combined with military incompetence, contradictory strategic aims, ambivalence among the soldiery involved in the anti-insurgency operations and half-baked, half-hearted political measures. The new government is, therefore, left with no option but to change course. The second path — the jihadi road — is one that none of the political parties wants to take. Despite ideological differences, all the major political parties know that jihadisation and talibanisation of the polity militates against their fundamental political interests. Even an ostensibly pro-Taliban politician like Maulana Fazlur Rehman wants the imposition of Sharia but only if the ulema (most of whom are under his influence) and not the militants call the shots. What is more, unlike the Jamaat-e-Islami and other radical Islamic groups, the mainstream political parties clearly understand that Pakistan is in no position — diplomatically, economically or militarily — to defy the rest of the world. The odds are, therefore, in favour of the third path. Under this, there will be a public show of standing up to the Americans. At the same time, all efforts will be made to reach a behind-the-scenes understanding with the Americans to allow the new government an opportunity to try a “home-grown” policy. The thrust of the new policy will be political — the use of traditional political instruments like jirgas to start a political and security dialogue with the Islamists, fast-track economic and social development projects and introducing constitutional and legal reforms by making amendments in the draconian Frontier Crimes Regulation, allowing political parties to function in the tribal belt, introducing representative institutions, and perhaps imposing the Sharia. The military option will mostly remain in the background to underwrite these efforts and will only be exercised as and when the situation demands. On the face of it, this policy option appears very attractive. But quite clearly this policy has not been entirely thought through. The most obvious flies in the ointment will be the US and al-Qaeda. Although the Americans realise that they need to cut some slack for the new Pakistani government, the problem is the timing. With reports pouring in of the Taliban preparing for another spring offensive, the Americans would be chary of any easing of military pressure on the Taliban and al-Qaeda. If push comes to shove, the US will be forced to resort to unilateral action, knowing full well that with its economy going into a tail-spin, Pakistan desperately needs the drip of Western financial assistance and will swallow whatever the Americans throw at them. On its part, Al-Qaeda knows that it cannot survive without Taliban support, which in turn depends on continuing hostilities between the Pashtun tribes and the Pakistani authorities. Helping al-Qaeda is the fact that the Pakistani authorities are going to make their political play through the traditional tribal structures to woo the Pakistani Taliban. But these traditional structures are already redundant. Whatever little influence the jirgas still command can be easily countered by the al-Qaeda affiliates. The other big problem is that the government will be entering into a dialogue with the Islamists from a position of weakness. Given that the Islamists are on the ascendant, both militarily and psychologically, it is still not clear why they will accept and honour the demands made on them by the Pakistani state. In fact, rather than the government, it is the Islamists who are better placed to press home their demands. These include imposition of Sharia law, release of all captured militants, an end to Pakistan’s participation in the war on terror, denial of military facilities to the Americans, withdrawal of security forces from the tribal belt and allowing the jihadis a free hand in mounting operations inside Afghanistan. The political establishment will not be averse to conceding the demand for a talibanised-sharia in the tribal belt. As long as this system remains limited to a remote corner of the country, the Pakistanis can live with it. But there can be no guarantees asked or given that the Islamists will not want similar measures imposed on the rest of Pakistan in the future. Although the politicians believe that they can balance the imposition of Sharia by introducing institutions of a representative government in the area and allowing political parties to function in the tribal belt, the contradiction between imposing a medieval Islamic system and at the same time trying to usher in a modern political culture will be impossible to reconcile. Since the problems associated with the talibani Sharia will manifest themselves in the years to come, they can for the moment be brushed under the carpet. The more immediate and critical issue is the demands that the Islamists are making on the war on terror. If the Pakistan government concedes these demands, it will pit the country directly against the entire Western world. And, if they don’t, then the peace process in the Pashtun belt will collapse. After all the twists and turns, the politicians will realise that the road they have taken ultimately merges with the road that was going straight from the roundabout. But the path will be tougher, straighter and narrower, and Pakistan’s entire national power will have to be brought into play to carry out a purge of the Islamists. Otherwise, the country could see itself plunging into an abyss called
jihad.
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My father’s accounts!
My father, like others of his generation, seldom explained to us why he was giving a particular advice or a direction. You were expected to do his bidding obediently. If you questioned, you were scolded for being insolent or “going out of hands”. He maintained an “account book” noting down daily expenditure before going to bed, not missing out even the smallest item. I used to hate the task of giving him the account and returning the balance after buying household provisions. It was the evening’s dreaded moment. I would forget some items. I also felt shy of bargaining with sabjiwallahs, rickshaw-pullers etc. To avoid scolding, I would make up for the deficit from my pocket money. So boring! When I joined my first job, he gave me an exercise book and asked me to keep an account of my expenses. Soon I realised it was difficult, because I knew he would want to check it regularly! I could not have entered into it items like beer, cigarettes etc. I started fudging, inflating the “legitimate” expenses. I felt compelled to lie, I was uncomfortable. When I got a job in another city, I threw the book away. I chanced upon his account book of early 1970s’ in Calcutta. A hair-cut for 75 paise, a loaf of bread for 50 paise, potatoes around 70 paise, basmati rice around Rs 4 per kg (ordinary rice cost 2 rupees), sugar in ration shops for Rs 2. Vegetables in our six-member household cost around Rs 3 a day. The monthly pay for the music teacher who came home was Rs 60, for the maid servant Rs 25, and for the man who cleaned the bathrooms Rs 7. The washer-man charged around Rs 25 — he washed and pressed more than 200 clothes in a month and delivered at home. My father’s monthly expenditure on running his large household in Calcutta hovered around Rs 2,500. There were other entries about journey dates, events etc. All this, of course, should be viewed in the context of much lower salaries those days. It was only a couple of years before his death that I asked why he was so particular about keeping the daily accounts. “You should know where exactly your money is going — become aware in a specific way, not in vague general terms. Only then can you control the expenditure, and find out ways of saving and planning for the future. You may not earn great sums, but must manage what you earn properly. Besides, it serves like a diary”. Alas, the explanation came too late, for I had already become a spendthrift! I have met scores of people who didn’t hanker after extra earnings and highly paid jobs but were compact in their expenditure. They have the temperament to look around carefully for lesser prices for the same stuff — just like my father. They enjoy it too!n
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News analysis The
scramble for oil resources poses a unique challenge to Indian oil diplomacy. It requires us to explore new engagements or alternatively imbue traditional political relationships with a new, hydrocarbon-related value, according to Talmiz Ahmed, the present Ambassador to Abu Dhabi, who has worked as an Additional Secretary in the Petroleum Ministry. Transnational gas pipelines are a cheaper and more efficient method of gas transportation in the developing regions of the world and have been so in countries like Europe during the Cold War. With burgeoning energy requirements in rapidly developing areas, gas pipelines are the most cost effective option as against the present method of transporting gas through in the form of LNG. This expensive process requires gas to be liquefied and transported through the sea route and re-gassified at the receivers end. At present India is receiving gas from Qatar in such form at Dahej and Kochi gas terminals. The alternative of getting the gas through a 2775 km pipeline from Iran was mooted in 1993, but the geopolitics of the region prevented the process going any further. The troubled and insurgent regions of Eastern Iran, and Western Pakistan’s Balochistan province, are still an area of concern for the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline. India is also holding parallel talks to join the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- Pakistan-India pipeline (TAPI), but insurgency in southern Afghanistan’s Taliban region increases the uncertainty factor. India’s requirement of gas is predicted to be around 400 million cubic meters of gas per day (mscmd) by 2025, up from 90-120 mscmd in 2009-10. The IPI pipeline, also know as the ‘Peace pipeline project’ will secure gas availability of 60-90 mscmd in three years with a gas sale and the purchase agreement being worked out for 25-30 years. Presently, India is importing nearly 25 percent of its requirements from countries like Qatar. India’s domestic gas supplies from the Reliance owned Krishna Godavari Basin (KG Basin), which are likely to start June-July 2008, will be around 40 mscmd initially, rising to 80 mscmd over a period of time. As per the tripartite agreement reached in April 2007, the gas for the IPI pipeline was indexed at Japan Cocktail Crude (JCC). East Asia crude oil and LNG imports are based on formulae linked to a basket of crudes in the region and are referred to as the Japanese Crude Cocktail (JCC). The IPI gas under the approved formula will translate into $ 4.93 per million British thermal units (mBtu). India and Pakistan want it to remain the basis of pricing of natural gas for the entire duration of the supply contract. Iran though, as per the agreement, has demanded revision every five years of the price of the gas deal. The Indian KG Basin gas is available at $4.20 mBtu at first fall point at Kakinada. However, the contentious issue remains that of the transit fee. India wants the transit fees to account only for about five percent of the price of delivered gas, while Pakistan has been arguing for double that figure. Islamabad is seeking $0.493 per mBtu as transit fee, while New Delhi has offered $0.20 per mBtu for providing security and right of way to the pipeline. As regards the transportation costs, Pakistan has been seeking a transportation tariff of $0.70-75 per mBtu while India was willing to pay $0.55 per mBtu. Domestically, RIL has proposed transportation charges of $0.17 per mBtu for customers in Kakinada, while those in other parts of the State will pay $0.45 per mBtu, and consumers in the rest of the country would pay $0.93 per mBtu. According to the gas sharing agreement drawn upon by the Economic Coordination Committee between the three countries, in the first phase, Iran will deliver about 2.1 billion cubic feet of gas per day (BCFD) at the Pakistan border which will be equally shared by both India and Pakistan. Under the second phase, another 3.2 BCFD of gas will be transported by Iran. This will take total supplies to 5.3 BCFD from Teheran. Of the total, Pakistan and India will get 2.1 BCFD and 3.2 BCFD, respectively. On project structure, the three parties had decided that the project should be constructed on segmented basis, which means that the three countries would lay gas pipelines within their respective territories. Iran has already started laying the pipeline from the South Pars gas field to the Pakistan border, of which some gas would be utilised in the eastern provinces of Iran. On the part of Iran, the work of laying the pipeline has already started. Nearly 50 per cent of the construction is complete and is continuing, say Iran Oil officials. Iran would build the pipelines from its Pars gas field to Jiwani in Balochistan (near Pakistan’s border), while Pakistan would lay the pipelines from Jiwani to its side. The construction, laying and gas storage in Pakistan will be carried by Russian gas major Gazprom. In India the same will be carried out by domestic public sector undertaking GAIL. In Pakistan, the security issue is in the economically backward tribal dominated Balochistan region and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The local Assembly has demanded an assurance that the majority of the royalty will be given to the people there along with free gas, as the pipeline passes through the province. The locals must be assured the maximum employment in the project. Acts of sabotage in the province have several times forced gas companies to shut off the main compressor plant, thus suspending gas supply to parts of Balochistan, Sindh and Punjab. If India does not join the pipeline, Islamabad intends to ask Tehran to increase the gas supply volumes for Pakistan by 50 per cent. “Transnational oil and gas pipelines are not only able to transport large quantities of hydrocarbons across hundreds, and even thousands of kilometres, but given their reach and range and the terrain they traverse, they also have significant geopolitical implications and even the ability to influence bilateral relationships and regional cooperation scenarios,” says Talmiz Ahmad.
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Environmentally sensitive Bhutan on the brink PUNAKHA, Bhutan – High in the Himalayas, above this peaceful valley where farmers till a patchwork of emerald-green fields, an icy lake fed by melting glaciers waits to become a “tsunami from the sky.” The lake is swollen dangerously past normal levels, thanks to the global warming that is causing the glaciers to retreat at record speed. But no one knows when the tipping point will come and the lake can take no more, bursting its banks and sending torrents of water crashing into the valley below. Such floods from above have hit Punakha before, most recently in 1994, a calamity that killed about two dozen people and wiped out livelihoods and homes without warning. But scientists say a new flood could unleash more than twice as much water and be far more catastrophic. Unfortunately, Punakha’s residents are not alone in this picturesque Buddhist kingdom in having the threat of death and destruction hanging over their heads like an environmental sword of Damocles. Because of Earth’s rising temperatures, at least 25 glacial lakes in Bhutan are at risk of overflowing and dumping their contents into the narrow valleys where much of the country’s population lives. A land of breathtaking vistas, little pollution and great biodiversity, Bhutan regards conservation as one of its most important public-policy goals. Sustainable development is the official mantra. By law, the country’s forest cover, including blue pine, cypress, spruce and hemlock, must never drop below 60 percent. Snow leopards, Himalayan black bears, barking deer and red pandas roam unmolested in the national parks and wildlife reserves that account for one-quarter of Bhutan’s territory. A sanctuary in the east is famous as the only one in the world set aside for the yeti – or “migoi,” the mythical Abominable Snowman. Some shifting weather patterns already are being felt. “The winters are not so cold. The hot season is arriving much earlier,” said Doley Tshering of the United Nations Development Program office in Thimphu, the capital. “Even fruit trees that would not fruit in Thimphu, that people just planted as ornamental flowers, are now starting to fruit.” Less benign are diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, common in the lower-lying, warmer south, which now are appearing at higher altitudes. Officials are also worried that any changes to Bhutan’s monsoon season could deal a major blow to agriculture, the main source of income for about 70 percent of the country’s population of fewer than 700,000 citizens. Estimates of the population vary – other agencies have put the figure as high as 2.3 million. But possibly the most dramatic effect of global warming on Bhutan can be seen in its glaciers – or, perhaps more accurately, not seen. On satellite images taken in 2000 and 2001, some of the smaller ice sheets along Bhutan’s 200-mile stretch of the Himalayas no longer could be found, according to a report last year by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development and the UN Environment Program. Experts estimate that Bhutan’s glaciers are retreating by as much as 100 feet annually. The loss has grave consequences for the country’s long-term development, because Bhutan relies heavily on selling hydroelectric power, which accounts for about one-third of national revenue. “In the short run, we’ll have increased summer flows, but after 40 years, it’ll dry up,” said Thinley Namgyel, a senior officer at the country’s National Environment Commission. Of more immediate concern is the risk of floods from fast-filling glacial lakes. In 1994, the Luggye lake burst and sent water hurtling down into Punakha. Now, a neighboring lake, the Thorthormi, poses an even greater peril. Fed by a separate glacier, the Thorthormi has bulked up to alarming size and is in danger of swamping a third body of water, the Raphstreng. In a nightmare scenario, the two lakes could merge, punch through the natural but unstable moraine dams holding them back and go cascading into the valley, picking up debris as they thunder downhill. To try to prevent such a catastrophic flood, the government is set to embark on a four-year, $7-million project to relieve some of the pressure on the Thorthormi. The effort is fraught with difficulty. The lake is reachable only after 10 days’ hiking and only through 16,000-foot-high mountain passes from all directions. Weather conditions allow for work barely six months of the year. Not that there is much choice. “Either drain it or get people out of the way,” Namgyel said. By arrangement with
LA Times-Washington Post
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Chatterati Rahul’s decision to donate his eyes, made public after his Bangalore rally, has got a positive response from the public. Not just the youth Congress and the NSUI, but youth in general have been queuing up in the last couple of days to donate their eyes. Congress guys are even working overtime to make lists of how
many people are coming out from
each constituency. The situation was the same when cine actor Dr Rajkumar died. On hearing that he had donated his eyes, thousands of his fans thronged eye-banks in the state to donate their eyes. People stand to benefit from this generous act. Suddenly, it seems, eye donation has become the flavour of the season with VVIPs and other notables in Bangalore rushing to perform the charitable act. Laptop fiasco A training camp to familiarise Bihar’s legislators with laptops was a complete failure. Ever since the Rabri Devi government promised laptops to them, Bihar’s politicos have been clamouring for the machines. Their wish was granted when the Nitish Kumar government sanctioned Rs 2.73 crore for buying laptops. The laptops were delivered to the eager politicians earlier this month. The legislators admitted that they had only seen laptops in shops and advertisements and had never even touched a laptop before. A camp was organised at both Houses of the state legislature during the ongoing budget session to train the legislators, most of whom are computer illiterate. Only 13 and two were present on the second and the third day respectively. At the legislative council, only 13 MLC’s attended the camp. Well, many insist they are getting trained by their family members who are well-versed in operating computers. Changing times Things are fast changing in the BJP. All their high-profile leaders of the post-Vajpayee era want to enter the Lok Sabha. Leaders such as Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley and Rajnath Singh were not allowed to contest to prevent them from getting bogged down with individual seats. But now, all these leaders have informed the party that they are eager to fight the next general elections. Party president Rajnath Singh is expected to fight the 2009 polls from Mirzapur or Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh. Sushma has contested assembly polls in Haryana and Delhi and a parliamentary election against Sonia Gandhi from Bellary in Karnataka, so she has a variety of places to choose from. With the BJP set to anoint Vijay Kumar Malhotra as the party’s chief ministerial candidate in the Delhi assembly elections this year, the South Delhi seat will also fall vacant. Swaraj will be a strong contender for it. Another candidate from either South or New Delhi constituency may be Arun Jaitley. The BJP now realise that the decision not to have them contest was a mistake.
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