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EDITORIALS

Now or never
Delay on N-deal will harm India

WHAT External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in Parliament on the Indo-US nuclear deal on Monday was only a reiteration of the UPA government’s stand on the subject. The government has been getting support from those who have a better understanding of the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with the US. Yet, the Leftist supporters of the government and the BJP continue to oppose it for purely political reasons.

Maya’s pilot
CM must function within the system
T
HE Centre has rightly challenged the appointment of Mr Shashank Shekhar Singh as the cabinet secretary of Uttar Pradesh by Chief Minister Mayawati. No doubt, the petition of the Department of Personnel and Training, Government of India, before the Lucknow Bench of the Allahabad High Court, in response to a public interest litigation, is belated.




EARLIER STORIES

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From India to Bharat
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MPs vs Parliament
February 29, 2008
The Judge who stood up
February 28, 2008
Passenger is the king
February 27, 2008
Budgeting for growth
February 26, 2008
Intolerance unlimited
February 25, 2008
Different strokes
February 24, 2008
Judges vs Judges
February 23, 2008
Cricket under hammer
February 22, 2008
Defeat of a dictator
February 21, 2008


Second birth
Many Kashmir Singhs not that lucky
A
T last Kashmir Singh is a free man. The wait of 35 years on death row in Pakistani jails has made the 25-year-old strapping youth into a gaunt old man of 60 but the twinkle in the eyes says it all: the second birth is a dream come true for him, his wife Paramjit Kaur, two sons and a daughter. Even Pakistan’s Human Rights Minister Ansar Burney, who was instrumental in his pardon and ultimate release, went lyrical when he said he could not miss the “reunion of swans”.

ARTICLE

Pakistan’s political revenge
It’s also a test of democracy
by Sushant Sareen
A
FTER the euphoria of “revenge of democracy”, the Pakistani political establishment is coming to grips with the fact that the verdict of the February 18 elections is a test of democracy more than anything else. It is a test of the faith that the Pakistani people have placed - perhaps for the last time - in the political class’s ability to close ranks and address the fundamental constitutional, political, social, economic, institutional, security and diplomatic challenges that their country faces.

MIDDLE

The recitation
by Harish Dhillon
I
have been teaching now for over 40 years and during this long period there have been tremendous changes in terms of curriculum, teaching methodology and examination practices, changes, which like all changes, have been painful at the time but have essentially been to the good.

OPED

Women waging peace
Kashmiri women look for political space
by Kavita Suri
B
efore the partition of the country in 1947, Kashmiri women had little social role to play. While those Kashmiri women belonging to the aristocratic families would remain confined to their homes only, the rural Kashmiri women would participate in almost every domestic and agricultural chore right from working in the fields, harvesting of the paddy etc with their men.

Europe declares war on its famous tax havens
by Sean O’Grady
T
he European Union has declared war on Liechtenstein, Monaco, Andorra and Switzerland. Weary of losing billions of tax euros, the EU’s economic 27-strong high command of finance ministers, Ecofin, is meeting in Brussels to agree on a strategy aimed at bringing the continent’s tax havens under control.

China wants to change one child policy?
by Ching-Ching Ni
B
EIJING – First they said they might do it, then they said they won’t. Now it seems more of a maybe. At issue is the sensitive question of how best to control the growth of the largest population on earth.

 

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Now or never
Delay on N-deal will harm India

WHAT External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in Parliament on the Indo-US nuclear deal on Monday was only a reiteration of the UPA government’s stand on the subject. The government has been getting support from those who have a better understanding of the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with the US. Yet, the Leftist supporters of the government and the BJP continue to oppose it for purely political reasons. That is why Mr Mukherjee talked of seeking a “broad political consensus within the country” to operationalise the deal. There is, however, very little time left to make use of the historic opportunity that has come India’s way.

The process of finalising an India-specific safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is about to be completed soon. There will also be no difficulty in persuading the 25-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to make an exception in the case of India and allow nuclear trade with it despite the country not being a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. This will change India’s nuclear apartheid status, which has been coming in the way of its acquiring the latest nuclear technology and equipment needed for meeting India’s fast growing energy requirement. But this will not be possible unless the nuclear deal with the US is operationalised.

The processes of dealing with the IAEA and the NSG must be over quickly to enable the nuclear deal’s passage by the US Congress before November, when the presidential elections take place. The George Bush administration has been reminding India of the difficulties it will have to face once a new administration is in place. US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher’s visit to New Delhi that began on Tuesday is part of the last-ditch attempts by the US to ensure that the efforts made by the two countries, primarily in their own national interest, do not end in a fiasco. The Left detractors of the deal must keep aside their ideological glasses to see the reality before it is too late. Scuttling the deal by mentioning what is there in the Hyde Act in a negative way will amount to putting a major roadblock on the country’s industrial advancement. 

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Maya’s pilot
CM must function within the system

THE Centre has rightly challenged the appointment of Mr Shashank Shekhar Singh as the cabinet secretary of Uttar Pradesh by Chief Minister Mayawati. No doubt, the petition of the Department of Personnel and Training, Government of India, before the Lucknow Bench of the Allahabad High Court, in response to a public interest litigation, is belated. For, Mr Singh has cleverly given up his charge of “administrative head” (which was on a par with the state chief secretary) and the cabinet minister rank. However, he continues to be the cabinet secretary — a patent illegality committed by Ms Mayawati after she was sworn in as chief minister in May last. Because of his dubious rank and proximity to the chief minister, Mr Singh had access to all the confidential files of the government. He could call for important files marked to the chief minister and review the previous government’s decisions. Apparently, he continues to call the shots though he is not the administrative head anymore.

A chief minister does have the power to appoint persons to certain posts like private secretary or officer on special duty. Such posts (unless they are constitutional posts like the state information commissioners) are co-terminus with the chief minister’s tenure. However, Mr Singh’s post and the untrammelled powers he enjoys make him an extra-constitutional authority. His appointment as cabinet secretary is flawed because it is a brazen violation of the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) cadre rules. A pilot, Mr Singh should not have been given a post legally mandated for senior IAS officers only.

Ms Mayawati’s penchant to pick and drop bureaucrats at her whim is well known. However, Mr Singh’s appointment cannot be justified because it has no constitutional and legal sanction. As the post tends to wreck the system from within, it needs to be annulled forthwith. Only then will it serve as a warning to all other chief ministers not to meddle with the system.

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Second birth
Many Kashmir Singhs not that lucky

AT last Kashmir Singh is a free man. The wait of 35 years on death row in Pakistani jails has made the 25-year-old strapping youth into a gaunt old man of 60 but the twinkle in the eyes says it all: the second birth is a dream come true for him, his wife Paramjit Kaur, two sons and a daughter. Even Pakistan’s Human Rights Minister Ansar Burney, who was instrumental in his pardon and ultimate release, went lyrical when he said he could not miss the “reunion of swans”. The step can be a far greater confidence-building measure than the ones the governments of the two countries normally talk about. The fate of Kashmir Singh should make them ponder as to why people should suffer so much for political animosities. Even ordinary citizens who stray into each others’ territory and are caught by the opposite side have to spend ages languishing in jails.

That is why there are so many Kashmir Singhs who have been praying all this while for a second birth of the kind that he has had. Among them is Sarabjit Singh, who is on death row in Pakistan. His pardon petition is still pending with the Pakistani President. His family members, too, have been praying hard that he will come home one day. The release of Kashmir Singh has boosted their hopes.

But the worst is the fate of the prisoners whose existence is totally denied by Pakistan. There are credible indicators about many such prisoners of war languishing in Pakistani jails. But for the official agencies, they simply do not exist. The goodwill generated by the release of Kashmir Singh should motivate President Musharraf and others to look at their plight sympathetically and somehow end their nightmare. Kashmir Singh was untraceable for many years because his name in jail records was Ibrahim. There is need to launch a similar thorough search in the case of others. 

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Thought for the day

If you take care of the small things, the big things will take care of themselves. 
Thomas Hardy

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Pakistan’s political revenge
It’s also a test of democracy
by Sushant Sareen

AFTER the euphoria of “revenge of democracy”, the Pakistani political establishment is coming to grips with the fact that the verdict of the February 18 elections is a test of democracy more than anything else. It is a test of the faith that the Pakistani people have placed - perhaps for the last time - in the political class’s ability to close ranks and address the fundamental constitutional, political, social, economic, institutional, security and diplomatic challenges that their country faces. If the politicians fail this test, Pakistan will face such extreme turbulence that it may easily unravel the state.

On the other hand, if they are able to find, if not entirely at least in large measure, solutions to the multiple but interlinked crises that Pakistan faces, then the country may just as easily catapult into the league of the most “happening” nations of the world.

Clearly, even though political pundits and pre-poll opinion surveys had correctly predicted the result, the projected winners never really expected that the regime would allow such an outcome. They were so sure that the polls would be rigged and rather than prepare for walking the corridors of power, they were bracing themselves for fighting on the streets of Pakistan.

Not surprisingly, there was no homework done on how they would form and run the next government if they got the numbers. The pious declarations on the need for a national government by the two biggest political parties, the PPP and the PML(N), were more in the nature of electoral grandstanding and were never seriously thought through, much less worked upon.

Now, however, to ensure effective and stable functioning of the new government, the political parties will need to carefully thrash out the formula and modalities of government formation both at the Centre and in the provinces, agree on an agenda for economic, political and social reconciliation and rejuvenation, and forge a national consensus on the policy framework to be adopted on constitutional and security issues. Obviously, this is a monumental exercise, one that will involve a lot of political compromise, flexibility and sacrifice by all the parties in the coalition.

Not only will the partners in the coalition have to contend with the pulls and pressures that are inherent in a coalition comprising diverse ideologies, interests and programmes, but they will also have to do this knowing fully well that they could well be facing off each other in elections in not too distant a future. Adding to the problems of the coalition partners will be party workers and supporters who are still not completely reconciled to the idea of cooperating with their political rivals even as they compete with them to increase their political support base.

Despite all the difficulties of cohabitation, the politicians know that they simply cannot afford to fail in forming and successfully running a coalition. So far at least the politicians have made all the right moves and noises. But the remarkable spirit of accommodation that the top leadership of the PPP, the PML(N) and the ANP has shown for each other’s concerns will have to be carried forward when they start grappling with the very tough political, economic and diplomatic problems that confront Pakistan.

It will be politically impossible for the next government to take the difficult decisions that await it unless all the partners equally share the responsibility and the flak that will follow. This is probably the reason why the PPP is insisting that the PML(N) participates in the government rather than doing back-seat driving by giving “outside” support. Perhaps their common struggle against the quasi-military regime as well as the political compulsions imposed on them by the mandate they have received from the people will help them paper over the problems of blurring the political identity of individual parties in the coalition.

In a sense, the overwhelming rejection of President Musharraf’s political flunkies by the Pakistani voter has made the job of coalition formation easy by not leaving the winners with any wriggle room on choosing their coalition partners. While the PML(N) has always been very emphatic about not jumping into bed with President Musharraf’s allies like the PML(Q) and the MQM, the PPP too is realising that it would be committing political suicide if it forms a coalition with the PML(Q). Not only will the PPP have to contend with public outrage, it will also face the real prospect of the party splitting right down the middle.

The PPP leadership is quite aware that just like an unholy political arrangement with the PML(Q) is no longer an option, a working relationship with President Musharraf is also not going to be possible for any length of time if they are genuinely serious about making Parliament supreme, strengthening institutions like the judiciary and restoring the constitution to its original form and structure.

With Mr Musharraf as President, the politicians know that they will face stiff resistance as they go about their task of stripping the presidency of its powers and undoing all the distortions that he has imposed on Pakistan’s constitutional and political structure. Unless he reconciles to being reduced to a lame-duck President, chances are that all sorts of intrigues and conspiracies will be hatched in the presidency to destabilise the government and put obstacles in its path.

If the next government has to have a half decent chance of fulfilling its mandate, then it will have to remove President Musharraf and do this soon because if he manages to survive for a few months it will be extremely difficult to dislodge him from power.

Already the disinformation departments have become active in trying to drive a wedge between the PPP and the PML(N). For the moment, however, this tactic hasn’t worked because the political leadership was expecting this to happen and had formed a committee to dispel all rumours floating around. Another desperate ploy was reopening corruption cases against Mr Asif Zardari to browbeat him into submission. But President Musharraf and his minions only ended up stiffening Mr Zardari’s back. After all, why should a man who has spent eight longs years in prison without bending or bowing even as the entire Pakistani establishment was working overtime to prove the cases against him succumb now to their threats and blandishments when his party is about to form the next government?

While attempts by President Musharraf and his underlings to stay on in power are understandable, what boggles the mind is the American desire to see him survive by putting pressure on the PPP leadership and on Mr Nawaz Sharif to accept Mr Musharraf.

The shenanigans of a dying regime and the pressures from its patron are the least of the problems that the next government will face. The real test and challenge will be governing an increasingly ungovernable country and putting it back on the rails.n

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The recitation
by Harish Dhillon

I have been teaching now for over 40 years and during this long period there have been tremendous changes in terms of curriculum, teaching methodology and examination practices, changes, which like all changes, have been painful at the time but have essentially been to the good.

What does not appear to have been to the good are the changes that I see in the students. They take pride in going about with scruffy hair, a three day growth on their chins and trousers that threaten to fall off their waists. They resist being corrected, show total disrespect towards teachers and pepper their speech with the ‘f’ and ‘s’ words. On the basis of such persistent “indiscipline” I may be forgiven for yearning for the good old days and being grateful that my teaching days will soon be over.

Then about six months ago I was out on a shopping trip. I am not much of a shopper when it comes to things other than blue and white Chinese porcelain and contemporary Indian art. But I did need some new shirts and seeing the fifty per cent sale signs I was tempted to go in and have a look. Almost at once I came face to face with a nine year old boy.

“You know me, Sir?” It was more a statement than a question.

“I know that you are from my school. I also know that you are in class three or four but I do not know your name.”

“I am Ritesh. You didn’t come to my recitation on Friday.” There was accusation in his voice and in his big, wide eyes.

“I had a Finance Committee meeting.”

“You missed something,” he said in a matter-of-fact voice . “I was very good. I came first.”

“Congratulations,” I said and shook his hand, pleasantly impressed at its firmness.

“Should I recite it for you?” I was a little taken aback but had no desire to play the spoil sport. “Please.”

“You sit here,” he led me to the step created by the split level at the entrance of the shop and seated me down. Then he went to the other end of the shop and launched into a truly inspired recitation of his poem. A hush descended on the shop, the other customers and the staff were drawn into the magic circle.

When he finished there was a round of thunderous applause. Fortunately, I had in my bag a box of chocolate I had bought for my grandchildren. I took it out now and with another vigorous handshake, gave it to the young performer. He took it with all the grace with which he must have accepted his official prize.

I walked down the corridor mulling over this experience. The good old days may have produced children who were ‘obedient’, ‘respectful’ ‘disciplined,’ but I could not remember one child who ever displayed the elan and the supreme confidence of little Ritesh. Thank God I was still teaching.

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Women waging peace
Kashmiri women look for political space
by Kavita Suri

Before the partition of the country in 1947, Kashmiri women had little social role to play. While those Kashmiri women belonging to the aristocratic families would remain confined to their homes only, the rural Kashmiri women would participate in almost every domestic and agricultural chore right from working in the fields, harvesting of the paddy etc with their men.

But even this active economic role did not give them complete economic independence and higher social status as it was predominately a patriarchal society. They always remained under-represented in political and decision-making positions; hence there could not be a perpetuation of policies and practices that could serve the needs of women.

After independence, Kashmiri women got a boost when reforms took place in various fields including the field of education which brought Kashmir women out of the shackles. Encouraged and motivated by the state government, many Kashmiri women entered jobs in various fields in the past 60 years of Indian independence.

But even in these past six decades, a strong women’s political activism is still not visible on part of Kashmir’s women. Women in the Valley are under represented in political and social life, and the conservative Kashmiri society is the main barrier and constraint in their participation.

In the 89-member state assembly, there are just three women members. While Kanta Andotra of the Congress is an elected legislator, she is in politics by virtue of being the wife of Congress Member Parliament Lal Singh who vacated his seat for his wife when he won the parliamentary elections. The other two, Khem Lata Vakhloo and Shanti Devi, are nominated members.

As Professor Hari Om, a former Head of history department, University of Jammu and member Indian Council for Historical research (ICHR) puts it, “The only visible face in Kashmir politics has been that of Begun Sheikh Abdullah, wife of Sheikh Abdullah who remained a Member Parliament twice, but that too by virtue of being the Sheikh’s wife. And now Mehbooba Mufti, MP, president of Peoples Democratic Party and the daughter of former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Mufti Sayeed.” Prof Hari Om also believes that this handful of women has been able to carve some political space only because of their political family background.

Political patronage or background may be alright but what the Kashmiri women have witnessed in the past 17 years of violence in Valley is something different. They have not only lived through political turbulence but also negotiated and renegotiated their roles in the conflict that also does not remain static, but keeps on changing.

In these past few years, Kashmir women donned a new role when they came out of their houses to work in the absence of their men folk in the family, who become prey to the mindless violence, thus breaking the stereotypes related to women.

This clearly gives us an insight into the fact that they aren’t the passive recipients of conflict as most of the agencies see them but have an inborn, innate resilience, the will to survive the most challenging situations.

But women’s voices from Jammu and Kashmir have been conspicuous only by their absence in the dialogic processes that are now unfolding in the terrorism-hit state. No Kashmiri women, except the high profile Mehbooba Mufti, was part of Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s five working groups on Kashmir which were set up after second Round Table Conference on Kashmir.

Does it also mean that women are no stake holders to the peace in Jammu and Kashmir? Ask Hameeda Nayeem, who teaches English at Kashmir University and is a founder-member of the Women Waging Peace, an initiative of Harvard University’s Kennedy School and she responds: “Even if we assume women have a greater role, we need to know who are they representing? Only the daughters of politicians contest polls, that too if there are no sons to carry forward the legacy,” adds Prof Nayeem, whose passport has been confiscated by the Union government for her activism.

Mrs Seema Khajooria Shekhar, Additional Advocate General, J & K ( who incidentally is the first woman AAG in the history of Jammu and Kashmir) strongly believes that the absence of women in these working groups is both unacceptable and short-sighted, especially as the women and children are the worst affected by the conflict in Jammu and Kashmir.

She suggests that the women of Jammu and Kashmir should throw their weight behind any initiative across the LoC that promotes better people to people interaction, rather than restricting themselves to gender specific initiatives.

Women who have working at the grassroots believe that women’s equal participation in political life, as voters, candidates and members of electoral committees, could play a crucial role in the advancement of women and the reconstruction of a violence-ridden society.

Professor Rita Jitendra, renowned women rights activist who was also member of Jammu and Kashmir State Women’s Commission believes that though women haven’t come forward in the political sphere in the real sense, yet, for the first time in the past 27 years in the troubled history of the state, the local bodies (Civic) polls held in Jammu and Kashmir in February-March 2005, have given us enough proof of women activism.

If women can come out in huge numbers desisting terrorist threats, why cannot they be included in the peace negotiations, argues Professor Jitendra, adding that after all, nobody can understand the meaning of word ‘peace’ better than a woman who has lost her husband, son, brother and father in the past 17 years.

In the first civic polls in which women participated, a total of 934 women contested the elections. Of these, 270 women ultimately made it to the municipal council.

— Charkha Features

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Europe declares war on its famous tax havens
by Sean O’Grady

The European Union has declared war on Liechtenstein, Monaco, Andorra and Switzerland. Weary of losing billions of tax euros, the EU’s economic 27-strong high command of finance ministers, Ecofin, is meeting in Brussels to agree on a strategy aimed at bringing the continent’s tax havens under control.

Their weapon of choice will be a strengthened version of the EU’s 2005 savings tax directive, which has proved pathetically easy for armies of accountants, lawyers and specialist tax planners to outflank.

Urged on by Peer Steinbruck, the German Finance Minister, the new directive will seek to close the loopholes. Mr Steinbruck says tax evasion costs Germany about 23 billion pounds a year in lost revenue; the UK loses a similar sum; the EU may lose 100 billion euros in all.

The stakes are high. But tax experts remain sceptical about the prospects for this new offensive. Mike Warburton, senior tax partner at Grant Thornton accountants, commented yesterday that, while he and his firm condemned tax evasion, which is illegal, “tax avoidance is the second oldest profession in the world, and just as difficult to control. The tax havens will survive. There are stacks of money out there. If they close down the ones in Europe, the money will move to Dubai and Singapore”.

Such defeatism has not infected European governments and they are expanding their armouries. Berlin, in particular, has turned aggressive. The BND, the German intelligence service, paid about A4m to a former employee of LGT, Liechtenstein’s biggest bank, for a list of about 900 German tax avoiders.

HM Revenue and Customs has paid for the information relating to about 100 people who could collectively owe the UK as much as 100 million pounds. Reports over the weekend suggested that the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, was targeting Monaco with an almost personal zeal, threatening a levy on funds transferred there if the recalcitrant principality fails to capitulate. Other nations, from Ireland to the Czech Republic, are also intensifying their attempts to crack down on tax losses, chasing paper trails and threatening the banks to catch up with fraud.

Everyone knows the money is out there in mind-numbing quantities; it is tricky, however, to be definitive about how much, and where.

It goes where taxes are low or non-existent and secrecy is guaranteed. The Cayman Islands, a UK Crown Dependency with a tiny population mostly concerned with the tourist trade and fishing, is home to $1.4trillion of offshore money including $300 billion worth of hedge funds, a third of the world’s total.

Nauru, a minute Pacific territory best known for its guano, saw some $70 billion of Russian money turn up over the past few years, for reasons easily guessed. The British trio of Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man attract about $1 trillion, much of it ex-UK.

Globally, estimates of the total funds parked by individuals alone in offshore havens vary from $7 trillion to $12 trillion. Depending on assumptions about returns and tax rates, such sizeable funds could yield around $250 billion for legitimate public spending. That ought to be enough, for example, to achieve many of the UN’s Millennium Development Goals by 2015.

But how much more for corporate profits dispatched to tax havens? A multiple of ten? Or a hundred? Either way, such monumental achievements as an end to global hunger, routinely dismissed as a pipedream of lefties, suddenly become a realistic prospect. At the every least, it might relieve the tax burden on the rest of the world.

Hard-up finance ministries are one reason why tax havens are on the defensive; crime is another. Much of the money that winds up in them is tied into the illegal international trade in drugs, corruption and embezzlement n and terror. Tax havens launder money, much to the annoyance of other governments, and grant terrorists current account facilities.

Michel Camdessus, a former managing director of the IMF, put the amount of cash laundered globally at about 2 per cent of its GDP, or about $2.1 trillion. Kleptomaniac dictators from Mobutu to Mugabe have known where to stash the cash, as does al-Qa’ida. Those involved in such activities, after all, would be unlikely to declare their earnings to their home tax authorities even if they were zero-rated.

Crime has pushed many governments against tax havens. In 2000, for example the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development published its blacklist of 35 “uncooperative” tax regimes; action was taken.

Now the blacklist is down to three; Monaco. Liechtenstein and Andorra. The US, normally in favour of “tax competition” and home to its own mini tax haven of Delaware, has also seen a change in mood since 9/11. Barack Obama has co-sponsored a “Tax Haven Abuse Act” in Congress, a sure sign of changing times.

By arrangement with The Independent

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China wants to change one child policy?
by Ching-Ching Ni

BEIJING – First they said they might do it, then they said they won’t. Now it seems more of a maybe. At issue is the sensitive question of how best to control the growth of the largest population on earth.

Over the weekend, an official said China is considering making changes to its one-child policy but didn’t offer any specifics. The statement by Wu Jianmin, a spokesman for the advisory body to the Chinese parliament, appeared to echo comments made last week by a senior family planning official.

State media, however, said that Zhao Baige, vice minister of the National Population and Family Planning Commission, had been misquoted, leaving the future of one of the world’s most extreme family-planning measures in confusion.

“The one-child policy was the only choice we had, given the conditions when we initiated the policy,” Wu told reporters Sunday. “So as things develop, there might be some changes to the policy and relevant departments are considering this.”

Vague as it is, the message might be an example of how China plans to deflect criticism of its human-rights record in the months before the Olympics this summer. Few expect Beijing to grant its 1.3 billion people freedom to multiply as they wish. But observers say the government is probably serious about re-evaluating current family-planning rules, even if they prefer to do it in secret.

After three decades, China’s one-child policy is in some ways already a misnomer. In the countryside, where the majority of the Chinese people live, families are generally allowed to have two children, especially if the first is a girl. Some ethnic minorities are allowed to have more than that.

The rules are stricter in the cities. But a whole generation of “only children” is now reaching child-bearing age, and they are permitted to have two.

Families who don’t fit any of those categories but can afford the stiff fines have long skirted the rules. So have those without the means who are willing to risk their jobs and social benefits.

In the early days, late-term abortions and mass sterilisation campaigns were common and the campaign did serious damage to China’s image. The upside for the government is 400 million fewer births and an improved standard of living for poor families.

The downside, however, is another potential demographic bomb. China is now grappling with a sharp imbalance in the ratio of males to females because the quest for boys led to selective abortions. Millions of men face the prospect of being unable to find wives.

A graying population means there will be fewer young people left to pay taxes and care for the old. It also threatens to erode one of China’s key economic advantages, an abundant supply of cheap labor. Some believe even if Beijing scraped all restrictions, Chinese families would not have as many children as they once did. The pressure to make a living is likely to encourage smaller families.

By arrangement with LA Times-Washington Post

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