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MPs vs Parliament Hopeful picture |
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Weapon from the sea
Dealing with China
The mobile mania
Farmers in distress Cracks in Europe’s closest friendship Delhi Durbar
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MPs vs Parliament FOR long have the people been fed on the diet that extra-parliamentary forces such as extremists and terrorists represent the greatest threat to democracy. It would be unthinkable to suggest that our Honourable Members of Parliament represent no less a threat to democracy, for there is a dividing line between what is unparliamentary or extra-parliamentary. Unfortunately, the line is getting thinner. In fact, the line must be blurred very badly for Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee to exclaim that the MPs “are working overtime to finish democracy”. Yet, if Mr Chatterjee should throw up his hands in despair — at the very beginning of the current session — then it sounds the danger signal for democracy. For successive days since the Budget session began, members have been disrupting the conduct of business in both Houses much to the exasperation of the presiding officers. On Thursday, too, the House witnessed uproarious scenes forcing the Speaker to adjourn the proceedings. It was no different from Wednesday when Opposition members protested against the plight of farmers and demanded waiver of farm loans. RJD members, too, contributed their bit by trooping into the well to show their agitation against the attacks on North Indians in Maharashtra. Mr Chatterjee warned the members that from Thursday “those who come to the well of the House will suffer. This is a notice I am giving”. He pointed out that the members were deliberately denigrating this country and parliamentary democracy. The way things turned out on Thursday, it is clear that this had little or no effect on the MPs: They were no less unruly in disrupting the business of the House. True, elections are looming, and every party and member wants to make his or her point. But, do the members seriously expect people to elect them to Parliament for disrupting Parliament’s proceedings? The House has a heavy agenda, yet MPs seem to be least concerned about this. The Speaker must have been pushed to the extreme to say, “With great sorrow and sadness, I am adjourning the House. Let the country decide what is to be done.” It may be time for the leaders of all parties to find ways of ensuring that those elected actually do their work instead of squandering Parliament’s time and money.
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Hopeful picture Projecting
a slowdown in growth during this fiscal to 8.7 per cent, the Economic Survey keeps inflation at 4.4 per cent. This means the recent hike in the domestic oil prices may not significantly push up prices. However, high global commodity prices and the inflow of foreign funds along with imbalances will continue to build up inflationary pressure. Price rise can be a major issue in the run-up to the general election. Though the survey indicates that poverty has declined and per capita income risen, this means little to the vast majority of the poor. Benefits of growth are yet to reach the grassroots level. The government has set a target of 9 per cent GDP growth in the 11th Plan, which is eminently achievable. It is another matter that it has already wasted two years of the Plan without implementing the reforms the survey recommends. These include opening retail to foreign direct investment (FDI), hiking the FDI limit in insurance to 49 per cent, allowing 100 per cent FDI in new private rural agricultural banks and 10 per cent equity sale in the cash-rich “navratna” PSUs. It is well known that the Leftist parties are opposed to these bits of reforms and the UPA prefers staying in power to a showdown. But what prevents the government from pushing infrastructure building? The survey asks the government to give incentives for mobilising more funds. The huge pile of foreign exchange reserves remains under-utilised due to policy flaws. Unlike the Commerce Minister, the Finance Minister is not very fond of special economic zones. The survey, no wonder, calls for a check on the “proliferation” of SEZs. It remains to be seen whether he cuts concessions to the SEZs. The US slowdown has been having an adverse impact on Indian exports and the survey recommends relief to exporters. The survey admits a “loss of dynamism” in agriculture though foodgrain production will be marginally higher. Agriculture is widely expected to get a major push from Friday’s budget. On the whole, the Economic Survey is projecting a hopeful picture of the economy.
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Weapon from the sea NOT long ago India’s project to develop a Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) was so secret that its existence was not even admitted to by the government. Even when the project and the name “Sagarika” first became known a few years ago, queries directed to the then Scientific Adviser to the Defence Minister and DRDO head A.P.J. Abdul Kalam would invite a trademark toss of wavy white hair, and a completely innocent “Sagarika? What is that?” It was only a couple of weeks ago that DRDO officials not only indicated that the project was on, but that a test was imminent. After Tuesday’s reportedly successful test, officials have been quoted as saying that not only was this 700-kilometre range test successful, but Sagarika had also been launched a few times before, under different names. We are still some distance from a successful SLBM. First, Sagarika will have to perform successfully on all parameters. Then, of course, there will be integration issues with its ultimate destination – a submarine for launching it. India is leasing two nuclear-powered submarines from Russia, and also developing an indigenous one. Recent reports have indicated that the reactor for the vessel is performing well. Integration into the submarine hull and subsequent sea trials are to follow in the near future. If both these projects proceed well, then India would have truly completed the famed ‘Triad’ – a credible nuclear deterrent capability arising from being able to deliver nuclear weapons from land, air and sea. An SLBM is particularly crucial for a credible second-strike posture – India has a no-first-use policy. Sagarika and something called “Surya” – India’s still-secret Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) – were, in a way, the “black” components of India’s Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP). The DRDO recently announced that it considered the IGMDP “completed” and was moving on to more missile programmes with high-tech partners. While Agni and Prithivi in the IGMDP have been inducted, and advanced Agnis are on the cards, Akash and Nag are still on the threshold. The Israeli Barak has been favoured over the unsuccessful Trishul. The DRDO and its partners should build on its recent successes to forge ahead further.
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Capitalism is using its money; we socialists throw it away. — Fidel Castro
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Dealing with China
ON visiting the Nathula Pass, Mr A.K. Antony, India’s Defence Minister, found the Chinese road system and infrastructure an “eye-opener” for him. It was the political class that, throughout the fifties, shut its eyes to what China was upto in Tibet that made us pay the price in 1962. Mr Antony’s shock and surprise on seeing the developments on the Chinese side only show how ill-focused our political leadership is to the Chinese moves in our neighbourhood. Surely, he must have been periodically briefed on the military-related infrastructure being built in Tibet and in other areas around India. What was merely Mr Antony’s eye-opener must now turn into shock and disbelief on learning that Nepal has requested China to extend the railway line from Lhasa to Kathmandu. There is already an all-weather highway from Lhasa to Kathmandu. When Nepal was desperately seeking help to contain Maoist menace, India decided to look the other way, stuck on the stand, “first democracy then help”. Fire in the neighbour’s house has finally spread to 160 districts in India which are in the grip of Maoist violence. By the late eighties, the Beijing-Lhasa railways and pipeline had reached Gormo. The assessment then was that once these projects were completed, China would have the capability to field up to 22 divisions in Tibet against India. In the interim, China has been upgrading military infrastructure and road system within Tibet at a feverish pitch to ultimately be able to, when required, bring to bear the full weight of this capability against India and possible force projection into South Asia. Tibet provides China excellent hiding facilities for its rail-mobile ICBMs, the DF-31A and its medium-range ballistic missiles which can reach most Indian cities. China’s spectacular economic progress often obscures the extensive modernisation of its armed forces and force projection capabilities. There has been great stress to develop air and naval power. Priority is being accorded to what has come to be known as a “revolution in military affairs” and the drive to develop systems to wage cyber warfare. China’s translation of economic power into military power seems to have remained unnoticed in India. Besides using Pakistan as an inexpensive instrument to keep India tied down within the subcontinent, China has acquired pervasive influence in East and South Asia, as also the region around us and has been implementing a policy aimed at containing India with what it calls “a string of pearls.” It has made inroads into Myanmar (Burma) with fullest access to military and naval bases and a surveillance facility at Coco Island to monitor ship movement in the Bay of Bengal. It has been arming Bangladesh and seeking berthing facilities in Sri Lankan ports for its navy. Pakistan’s Gwadar port has been constructed by China. Its navy would have berthing facilities in the area, from where movement through the Strait of Hormuz can be controlled. There are long-term plans to link Gwadar port with the Central Asian region though road and rail communications. It is a major supplier of arms to Iran and other Middle-East countries and has made inroads into Africa. Moves into the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, the Middle-East and the African continent reflect China’s rise on the world stage and soaring ambitions. The projection of military power is related to economic ties in these regions and capturing of markets for its huge production capacities. Hundreds of Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese companies, etc, have shifted manufacturing facilities to mainland China. Presently, what could be called soft power has the potential to a switch-over to bellicosity and belligerence. A few pointers in this direction are currently visible in the form of violations along the Tibet border, developments in the Chumbi Valley, sallies into Bhutan, statements regarding the Prime Minister’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh and continued claim over that province of India. Belatedly waking up to these developments and as expected, India is coming up with its usual knee-jerk reactions. Press reports point to the raising of two mountain divisions and urgently constructing 72 roads in the Himalayan border areas to meet the Chinese threat. The Chinese Study Group (CSG) has suddenly woken up from its long slumber and now wants to kick-start road construction activities, including repairing of some old and constructing new airfields. The military has never been very enthusiastic about road construction up to the border with Tibet, essentially because making these roads without a long-term strategic policy framework and creating connected military infrastructure and appropriate capabilities to effectively counter the threat from across the Himalayas can pose its own problems. The new road system will otherwise merely provide easy ingress routes. On the break-up of the USSR, China took over 2000 scientists from the Central Asian republics. They have helped build a powerful military-industrial complex in China. The development of high technology equipment such as anti-missile systems, Jin-class submarines, rapid modernisation of its defence forces, etc, give the Chinese the necessary confidence to flex their muscles and intransigence in resolving boundary disputes with India. Unfortunately, developments and moves by China in the region, which directly impact India, both at the strategic and economic planes, have never been fully realised and analysed by our political class. China’s expanding economy and increasing military capabilities will affect the countries in the region in different ways and result in pervasive influence on them. China’s desperate search for raw materials for its industry has resulted in a push into African countries. It is pulling out all stops to meet the energy requirements on a long-term basis. India’s major rivers flow from the Tibetan plateau and their flow can be controlled or diverted with serious implications for India. The great Indian river, the Brahmaputra (Tangpo in Tibet), is to be dammed at the “Bend”, as it turns southwards towards India, to generate 40,000 mega watts of electricity from a fall of over 3000 metres and its waters diverted to the arid areas in China. There may be long-term plans to tap other rivers, which flow from Tibet into India. Implications of such developments on India can be catastrophic, both in terms of flow and flooding. Flooding of Satluj from the Pareechu “lake” and Arunachal Pradesh from a dam burst in Yiong River in 2000 are pointers in this direction. While India enthusiastically signed away 83 per cent of waters of the Indus river system to Pakistan in the Indus Water Treaty, no such largesse can be expected from China. The spread of the Maoist movement and its gains in the political field in Nepal will vastly increase China’s influence over that country. It will also complete the, “circle of India’s diplomatic failure,” starting from China, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and
ending in Nepal. These developments have grave implications for countries in the region, more so India, which will have to rise to meet these challenges. As a first step, there is need to work out a realistic threat assessment in all its dimensions, keeping in view the imperatives of guarding vital national interests. Thereafter, work must begin for the formulation of intellectually vibrant, realistic and pragmatic policies and then the country should come up with a definite plan of action in the diplomatic, economic and security fields.We should build capabilities required to realise the overall strategic vision for the 21st century in all its facets. It is time to shed ideological baggage and wishful
thinking.
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The mobile mania ME and my mobile seem to be the mantra of New Age. Nowadays people use not one or two but three mobile phones to “communicate”. As a bureaucrat used to have one mobile only, I admire their spectacular dexterity in handling more than one mobiles. But what happens if there is a network failure, signal loss or the mobile refuses to work? It’s a doomsday for some. My collegemate, Suresh Gupta, a businessman from Delhi, accepted my invitation to visit Chandigarh on the New Year Eve. Busy as most species of his kind are, he arrived with his wife on the last day of December. We decided to go to Morni Hills, a scenic Haryana Tourism resort, 35 km from Chandigarh. My wife and my 10-year-old son accompanied us. And alas, there was a technological storm in store for us. Mr Gupta was in platonic love with his mobiles as most of his “business happens on mobile”. However, the panoramic Shivalik ranges, boasting a height of 3000 feet above the sea level, were not so cooperative. Despite claims by operators “wherever you go our network follows”, three mobiles of Mr Gupta refused to work. I took it easy and relaxed in my room but our esteemed friend felt uncomfortable within his skin. At sunset, his wife informed me that he had gone out with his three mobiles in search of network. While looking for him desperately, I saw an unclear image precariously hanging over the Shivalik hills. As it turned out, it was Mr Gupta struggling to speak on mobiles supporting weak signals in a jarred voice. When informed that mobiles do not work on the Shivalik hills, he felt betrayed. I noticed his enhanced anxiety and stress because of emotional isolation from the rest of the world. He was craving to indulge in conversation with someone on the mobile. His New Year evening had been marred by the technological hammerings. Somehow the night passed over restlessly. On the grand New Year morning, a look at him clearly indicated that he had not slept well. Mr Gupta decided to cut his sojourn short despite his wife’s protests. We started our downhill journey to Chandigarh. Mr Gupta headed straight towards Delhi, as if he was released from confinement and was busy talking on his three mobiles which had by then come alive. The glow on his face had returned and he was full of smiles and looked comfortable. His mobiles also responded to his emotional mood and were ringing continuously. Soon he disappeared in the cyber world along with his wife without responding to my “Happy New
Year”.
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Farmers in distress Though
the phenomenon of suicides by farmers in India has been aptly highlighted by the National Farmers’ Commission (NFC) and the media, there are few studies pertaining to the socio-economic analysis of the victims and their households. According to the NFC, about 1.5 lakh farmers committed suicides in India up to 2006 in various states of India. The states with success stories of the green revolution have a high incidence of farmers’ suicides. Some studies conclude that the highly capital intensive technique and over-mechanisation of farming operations have resulted in enormous increase in cost of cultivation. In fact, the entire farming operation is subject to serious diminishing returns. This means that the additional increments in the agricultural produce are coming up at a very high additional cost. As a consequence, the net return of the farmer is continuously declining and the debt burden is rising. It has been computed from the cost of cultivation data that the trend growth rate of per hectare net return, over variable costs in Punjab, from both wheat and paddy, was -2.18 per cent per annum during the decade of 1990s. It was -15.46 per cent per annum in cotton during the same period. Alongwith the declining net return, the employment opportunities in agriculture are also shrinking. According to certain estimates (Sucha Singh Gill, 2002), employment in principal crops in Punjab declined from 48 crore man days in 1983-84 to 43 crore man days in 1996-97. Given the state of technology, cropping pattern and shrinkage of land under agriculture, the availability of employment in agriculture must have declined further. In fact, per hectare employment of labour in major crops in Punjab declined by 20.31 per cent in 1996-97 compared to 1983-84. Alongwith this, the net sown area decreased from 4250 thousand hectares in 2000-01 to 4170 thousand hectares in 2005-06, in Punjab. Pressure of workforce on agriculture in India has not declined much over the period of time. At the same time, the number of marginal and small operational holdings in India have increased. A little more than 80 per cent of operational holdings in India are less than five acres. It is amply clear from the foregoing discussion that the economic distress of farmers at the lower rung is not simply because of crop failures or other such reasons, as is being projected by many economists and policy planners. The fundamental reason of their economic distress is rather their limited earnings from their very very small sized operational holdings. What can an acre of land can fetch to a farmer household in a year? The net earnings are between Rs. 15,000 to Rs. 20,000 at the maximum. About 62 per cent of the farmer-households in India fall in this category. If the average family size of such farmers is five persons, then their per day per capita income comes out to be between Rs. 8 to 11. According to a recent report on the status of workers in the unorganized sector (Govt. of India 2007), 77 per cent of the Indian population is having a per capita income of up to Rs. 12 a day. It, thus, includes the above 62 per cent of the farmer households. A recent study (2007) commissioned by the Punjab Farmers commission, on the Agricultural Labour in Punjab, also highlights that per capita daily income of 68 per cent labour households is only up to Rs. 10. This study also highlights that in 69 per cent of the total rural households and 90 per cent of the rural labour households in Punjab there is not even a single matriculation person. The meager level of earnings, non-availability of alternative employment opportunities, shrinking employment opportunities in agriculture, pressing social commitments, non-availability of adequate institutional loan, etc., are responsible for mounting debt burden on the farmers and labourers. According to a recent NSS survey (2005), 48.6 per cent farmer households are under an average debt of Rs. 12585. As regards farmers’ suicides in Punjab, there are various estimates. Bharti Kisan Union (Ekta-Ugrahan) has already enlisted 3126 suicides by farmers and agricultural labourers from 376 villages located in 10 districts of Punjab. Interestingly this data pertains to only 3 per cent of the total villages in Punjab. This necessitates a detailed census of suicides in the state. A recent study of 2008 (Gurpreet Singh, Punjabi University) highlights that out of 200 sampled suicide victims 33 were agricultural labourers. This means agricultural labourers are equally under economic distress. The study highlights that about 81 per cent farmer suicide victims own less than 5 acres of land and the remaining 19 per cent were in the range of 5 to 10 acres. The average amount of debt on the farmer victims’ households was Rs. 2.7 lakh and that and the labour households was Rs. 57121. It is often said that unproductive use of loan, drug addition and shirking from work are the basic reasons behind farmers’ suicides in Punjab. Various studies, however, highlight that economic distress is the root-cause behind the suicide by farmers and labourers. As regards work-shirking, not even single farmers upto 5 acres employ any attached labourer. Only 35 per cent of such farmers occasionally employ casual labour. Clearly, the solution to the problem lies in the correct diagnosis of the illness. The illness lies in the small-size of holdings and unbearable burden of workforce on agriculture. The solution would, thus be, the systematic withdrawal of work force from the agricultural sector. And that would be possible only by the development of the rural non-farm sector. This transition is inevitable. Planned and systematic efforts would, however, make it less painful. The writer is professor of economics at Punjabi University, Patiala
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Cracks in Europe’s closest friendship French and German officials sought yesterday to play down the significance of the abrupt postponement – both by Paris – of two meetings between the countries’ most senior politicians. Privately, and not so privately, the talk in both capitals is of a serious rift in the single most important national partnership in Europe. Officials blame an increasingly difficult relationship between President Nicolas Sarkozy and Chancellor Angela Merkel. Berlin has been especially annoyed by M. Sarkozy’s determination to push ahead with a so-called “Club Med” or formal union of countries on the shores of the Mediterranean. Chancellor Merkel believes that such an organisation would be either a pointless distraction or a threat to the unity of the EU. There have also been tensions over the management of the euro and on foreign and defence policy. France has repeatedly criticised the monetary policy of the European Central Bank while ignoring its European commitments to restrain its budget deficit. Germany has refused to join a French-sponsored EU military mission to Darfur. At the heart of the quarrel – not yet an overt crisis – is the strained relationship between the two leaders. German officials say that the hyperactive and boastful behaviour of the French President – and his over-familiar personal style – has irritated Ms Merkel. French officials suggest M. Sarkozy finds Ms Merkel too cautious and too ponderous. French diplomats also complain that M. Sarkozy – in his determination to shake up all aspects of French government – wants to play down the Paris-Berlin relationship that has been the bedrock of France’s domestic and European policy for half a century. “For Sarkozy, the West very much means UK and the US,” one French source said. Late last week, Paris postponed for three months a Franco-German summit that had been scheduled for next Monday in Bavaria. The ElysEe Palace said that President Sarkozy’s diary was too busy. Early this week, France called off at, one day’s notice, a meeting between the French Finance minister, Christine Lagarde, and her German counterpart, Peer Steinbrück. The reason given was trivial, bordering on the insulting. Mme Lagarde had to accompany M. Sarkozy on a visit to a provincial health centre and luxury goods factory. Eckart von Klaeden, chief parliamentary spokesman for Ms Merkel’s ruling conservatives, said the French explanation was “ hardly convincing”. Martin Schulz, the German Social Democrat leader in the European parliament, said: “I think that Sarkozy has hit such a low that his internal political weaknesses are now beginning to affect Franco-German co-operation.” The newspaper Le Monde said that, whatever excuses were put forward, it was clear that Franco-German relations had fallen victim to a “maladie diplomatique”. Le Monde said that you had to go back eight years, to a spat over EU voting rights between Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and President Jacques Chirac, to find such a “sullen” relationship between the “countries which once claimed to be the motors of Europe”. M. Sarkozy wants to make his plans for a Mediterranean Union one of the centrepieces of his six- month presidency of the EU from 1 July. He has invited the Mediterranean states to a summit in Paris on 13 July and wants other EU countries to come along the next day – France’s national day – to bestow their blessings. However, several northern EU countries, led by Germany, are deeply unhappy about the French initiative. They complain that there is no need for a separate Mediterranean Union, distinct from the EU’s own partnership agreements with its southern and eastern neighbours. The German newspaper Die Welt said M. Sarkozy had tried to persuade Ms Merkel to write a joint article, praising the Club Med idea, for publication in French and German newspapers before next week’s bilateral summit. She refused. M. Sarkozy then postponed the meeting.
By arrangement with The Independent
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Delhi Durbar Always quick to champion the cause of Rajputs and Thakurs, the indefatigable Samajwadi Party leader Amar Singh has been unusually quiet during the raging protests over the depiction of Rajputs in “Jodha Akbar”. Singh’s silence has been atrributed to the fact that Jodha is being played by “apni bahu” Aishwariya Rai Bachchan. Amar Singh had even accompanied the Bacchan clan for the function when the the film’s music ws released, and was again present with at film premiere. Man to envy Amiable Rajya Sabha MP Rajiv Shukla is the envy of all his political colleagues. Not only does he manage to straddle both the worlds of cricket and Bollywood with great aplomb, but he also manages to have the right connections in the political circuit. Shukla is in the news for his proximity to Bollywood badshah Shahrukh Khan and is equally good friends with cricketing hero Sachin Tendulkar. In the Congress, he has a hotline to the party heir-apparent Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka. Little wonder then that when members of the Congress party’s Uttar Pradesh coordination committee were allotted work in the electorally-crucial state, Shukla was hand-picked for the charge of the high-profile Nehru-Gandhi bastions Amethi, Rae Barelli and Sultanpur constituencies.
Headlines only Government spokespersons are sometimes given to exaggeration. The Planning Commission has thought it proper to issue a press release after its meeting with the Punjab state government, for finalising the plan outlay for the next fiscal. The state government spokeperson, who insisted that the figures quoted by him were correct, put the plan size at Rs 6224 crore, while the Planning Commission figure was Rs 6210 crore. The press release issued by the state government after the meeting gave details of the demands put up by chief minister Parkash Singh Badal but failed to mention that he had been asked by the Planning Commission to review its policy on free power, as it has resulted in overexploitation of ground water resources. Most releases issued by the Punjab government after Badal’s meeting with Central ministers invariably talk of only “in principle” approvals, as these make impressive headlines.
Greet the boss It is imperative to make the right moves in politics. A practical lesson in realpolitik was taught by RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav on the floor of the Lak Sabha, to first time MP Arun Yadav of the Congress, who recently won the Khargone Lok Sabha seat in Madhya Pradesh. Immediately after he took oath on the second day of the current Budget Session, Yadav rushed towards Lalu Prasad and greeted him with folded hands. Known for his political astuteness, Lalu immediately raised his eyebrows and looked across at Congress President Sonia Gandhi. The first time MP was sharp enough to take the hint and within seconds touched Gandhi’s feet in gratitude.
Contributed by Anita Katyal, Prashant Sood and S. Satyanarayanan
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TO cancel one high-level Franco-German meeting is unfortunate. To cancel two in less than a week implies a bank of freezing fog is descending over the Rhine. 
With France scheduled to take the presidency of the European Union in July, the Franco-German tiff could not be timed worse.