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And now Nagaland Crude alternatives |
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The case of Prof Sabharwal
A Modi victory
A trip down South
Water and power crisis in Punjab Gujarat: mask and the message Inside Pakistan
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And now Nagaland The
Union Government is not in the habit of explaining all its decisions that have a bearing on vital public interest. If the confidence motion that Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio won on December 13 last was controversial, President’s rule now imposed by the Centre in the state is no less contentious. No wonder, Mr Rio and his supporting parties like the BJP are shouting blue murder. They have a point when they say that if the decision of the Speaker to debar three Independents and nine dissidents of the ruling NPF from taking part in the December 13 voting was wrong, then so was a similar decision taken in Goa some time back. But there the Congress government has been allowed to function smoothly. There cannot be separate sets of rules for states ruled by the Congress and other parties. It is really intriguing why the Congress has again opened itself to allegations of gross impropriety by dismissing Mr Rio just about six weeks before his term was scheduled to end in any case and Assembly elections were due. Not only that, former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma has alleged that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre did not consult its partners while recommending imposition of President’s rule. His party and the Left parties had vehemently opposed this move. In fact, the Union Cabinet had taken up the matter last week and had devoted considerable time to it. It was felt that the imposition of President’s rule would be politically incorrect as the decision of the Speaker should not be confronted by the Central Government. But later, it succumbed to the pressure exerted by the State Congress leadership. The turbulence caused by the decision has added substance to the allegations by the ousted Chief Minister and Mr P A Sangma that the Congress is planning to rig the elections. After all, the dissidents of the NPF had sided with the Congress-led Nagaland Progressive Alliance. That made a mockery of anti-defection law. The bigger worry is that the uncertainty brought in by the decision will affect the law and order situation in the highly sensitive North-Eastern state. |
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Crude alternatives WHAT the world was dreading — crude oil price touching $100 a barrel — has happened. It is bound to pinch the consumer the world over. In India where the prices of petroleum products are one of the highest in the world, the government has only limited options. As has been the government’s practice for quite some time, it can pass on the burden to the consumers. There will be a sudden increase in the prices of petrol, diesel, kerosene, LPG and other such products. Apart from hitting the common man, it will also add to the inflationary spiral by increasing the cost of production and transportation of all items of public consumption. Needless to say, a government, which is preparing to face elections, can only ill afford to tax the common man in this manner. The alternative, as suggested by some Left parties supporting the UPA government, is for the government to absorb a part of the higher oil import bill. This is possible as the government charges a hefty excise duty on the oil companies, refining the crude oil and selling it to the consumer in various forms. A reduction in duty will help the oil companies to cushion the crude oil price increase to some extent. Of course, this will be at the cost of revenue to the government. But when the Finance Minister talks about better tax compliance and the Income Tax Department records an unprecedented tax collection this fiscal, the government can certainly afford to be a little merciful. While the nation waits with bated breath how the Petroleum Minister tackles the problem, there can be no disputing of the urgent need to put in place a system to tap alternative sources of energy. It is through import that India meets 70 per cent of its oil needs. Explorations for oil and gas continue but dependency on crude imports is unlikely to decrease, particularly when the economy is doing well. The growing energy needs can be met only by increasing the availability of energy through non-conventional sources like wind and sun. Equally important is optimal use of energy as energy saved is energy produced. Even today, only a fraction of wind and solar energy available is used productively. There is also a case for improving technology so that even with lesser consumption of energy there is greater productivity. |
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The case of Prof Sabharwal Madhya Pradesh
Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan has committed a serious breach of constitutional propriety by calling on Vimal Tomar, the prime accused in the Prof Sabharwal murder case, at an Indore hospital on Thursday. Tomar, a former leader of the Akhila Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad — A Sangh Parivar outfit — along with its former president, Shashiranjan Akela, are accused of killing Prof H.S. Sabharwal in August 2006 for his decision to cancel the students’ union elections of an Ujjain college. Tomar was admitted to the hospital recently after he complained of chest pain in the Ujjain jail. Mr Chauhan’s claim that he had met other patients too, along with Tomar, during an inspection of the hospital is unconvincing. News reports from Indore suggest he kept the officials and doctors away and had a one-to-one chat with Tomar for over 20 minutes. Since Tomar is the prime accused in the murder case, Mr Chauhan must have refrained from meeting him. Questions are being raised on the fairness and impartiality of the trial or the investigation when the Chief Minister sought to demonstrate his friendship with Tomar so brazenly. Was he trying to send a signal to the administration and trial court that Tomar was his man and they need to bear this in mind? The BJP-ruled government has been scuttling the case from the very beginning. The Chief Minister has himself called it “an accident and not a murder” — a kind of judgement he was not authorised to make. It was following media pressure that Tomar and Shashiranjan Akela were arrested. Tomar was caught on camera while threatening the academic of dire consequences if he failed to hold the elections. Yet, witnesses, one after the other, have turned hostile and made a mockery of criminal justice in MP. The Supreme Court had earlier questioned the fairness of the trial and suspended it. Even as it is seized of the Sabharwal family’s petition for shifting the case out of the state to ensure a fair trial, the Chief Minister has brought disgrace to the high office by meeting someone caught for murder. Obviously, he was more concerned about the health of a Parivar member than administration of justice. |
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Apathy can be overcome by enthusiasm, and enthusiasm can only be aroused by two things: first, an ideal, with takes the imagination by storm, and second, a definite intelligible plan for carrying that ideal into practice. —Arnold Toynbee
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A Modi victory
AFTER quick and summary reactions of political parties and analysts to the Gujarat assembly election, a deeper assessment of its long-term impact is due. The election was a one-man victory and the closest historic parallel that is being drawn is of Indira Gandhi who had swept the poll after her revolt against the old guard of the Congress, her revolutionary steps like bank nationalisation and termination of privy purses and liberation of Bangladesh when she was hailed as goddess Durga. Modi is being projected as a model leader — decisive and determined as compared to the rest of the national leaders — and a future Prime Minister. Yes, he has rebuffed the opposition of all secular forces and media campaign and falsified all predictions of professional pollsters. But is strong leadership always an asset for a democracy? Indira Gandhi, with all her qualities of a good leader, landed the country into emergency, the blackest spot on Indian democracy and on the glorious history of the Congress party. After all Hitler, too, came to power through popular vote. The qualities for which Modi and his election campaign are getting kudos are that he did not depend on the support of the Hindutva parivar like the RSS and the VHP and even the national leadership of his party did not matter much in his success. But these facts imply a threat to both of them. There is some truth in the Prime Minister’s comment that the sudden decision of the BJP to declare L.K. Advani as its Prime Ministerial candidate was to stem the threat that Modi posed to the BJP leadership. Apart from his personality and quality of leadership that he projected, Modi’s election campaign was based on Gujarati pride, development and good governance and at a later stage as a fighter against “Islamic terror” in a diluted form. It would be useful to analyse the role of each factor in his victory. To start with, he considered “jeetega Gujarat” his winning slogan. He enlisted the support of very dynamic and prosperous Gujarati NRI community and of the industrialists of the state. The Congress could not present an alternative vision of glory of Gujarat. It could neither project any past icons of Gujarat as its own nor any present leader even as a tame imitation of Modi. The statement of iron man of India Sardar Patel condemning the RSS and Hindu communalism for the murder of Mahatma Gandhi and the statement of Godse accusing him of appeasement of Pakistan and Muslims were very relevant to Modi’s vision of Gujarat as a vanguard of defence against the evil design of “Mian Musharraf” and “Muslim terrorist” Sohrabuddin. The Congress failed to enthuse and mobilise even the disgruntled Patel community against Modi. In any case, ambition of the “hero” of Gujarati pride, who projected his state to be saviour of the nation, to be the future Prime Minister of India would have as much chances of success as that of any regional leader like Karunanidhi. Regionalism is, of course, a much lesser evil than communalism but a combination of the two makes a leader less acceptable to a highly diverse country like India. Even it would be difficult for the BJP not to speak of its allies in the NDA to accommodate such a leader. For that matter the BJP, too, had to give up its core demands like building Ram Mandir at the site of Babri Masjid, abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution, governing Kashmir’s relation with the Union of India and Uniform Civil Code, to forge the alliance of the NDA and become eligible to be in the race for power at the Centre. How far Modi succeeded in making Gujarat a laboratory of Hindutva? Ram Puniyani, a well intentioned secular writer, for instance observes that “after every communal violence, the major player of the violence, in this case the RSS affiliate the BJP, becomes stronger and the BJP’s performance has been best where the carnage was maximum”. Without minimising the threat of communal forces, we should take an objective view of the extent of this threat, as witnessed in Gujarat and elsewhere. Firstly, the major gains of the Congress are from central Gujarat which was the main scene of Muslim mayhem. In Godhra proper, from where the anti-Muslim riots spread, Congress candidate won a handsome victory. The Congress suffered its major losses in constituencies where it adopted rebel BJP candidates who were far from committed to a secular ideology. Secondly, half the voters who polled were against the BJP. A better organisational effort by the Congress would have enabled it to get more votes than the BJP. For future strategy of secular forces, 50 per cent anti-Modi voters should not be written off or demoralised. After all they defied the mass hysteria that Modi had built and voted against him despite weak organisational support. Thirdly, after every riot, the BJP suffered a loss. For instance, after Ayodhya outrage, the BJP has been losing and has become a marginal force in UP. Similarly, after Bhagalpur riot in Bihar the BJP has been on decline. It recovered after a fresh combination of castes as a junior partner in the Bihar government. The BJP success at the Centre was possible only after it made all sorts of alliances with secular and with regional interests, including with secessionist undertones, at least in the past, like the National Conference in Kashmir, the Akali Dal in Punjab, the ADMK in Tamil Nadu and Christian groups in Nagaland. Will the party be able to retain its present allies in the NDA if Modi develops ambitions for a national role? Finally, all concerned have to learn appropriate lessons from the Gujarat outcome. The psephology and election experts of the media, for instance, should sharpen their tools. Yogendra Yadav, our foremost pollster, has admitted his mistake of ignoring the raw data collected from views of the people and modifying it with the “wisdom” of the experts. Common men (or women) sometimes are wiser about the ground realities than their “intelligent” interpreters. All in all, Modi’s victory is not an unmixed blessing for the BJP unless its opponents get demoralised. The election result of Gujarat do not warrant such a sweeping
conclusion.
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A trip down South
For
most “North” Indians even today “South” India means anything beyond Madhya Pradesh. So it was with some trepidation that my wife and I planned to visit our son studying in Manipal in Karnataka.” You’re going to Manipal? Be careful, they eat snakes and dogs there!” was the typical comment of our friends — confusing Manipur with Manipal! — another misconception of North Indians . Anyway, after checking our maps and brushing up our geography we set off. It was a hop step and jump from Ludhiana to Delhi to Mumbai to Mangalore. The Mangalore airport was a cute little friendly place . Hordes of taxi drivers — polite ones — a major change from the hustlers of Delhi — greeted us and we were off on the one hour drive. The surroundings were as if from Malgudi Days of RK Narayan. We passed sleepy little hamlets . They were all neat and clean and in fact resembled some of the small towns associated with cantonments. Finally a rush through Udipi (the name brings back pleasant memories of so many South Indian coffee shops by the same name in North India) and we were in Manipal. Manipal boasts of just one reasonable hotel — the Valley View. A quick check in with a surprising discount given because of our son studying in Manipal!!. Then a joyous reunion between mother and son with the usual “you’ve lost weight” cries from the mom and sheepish coyness of the growing lad trying to weasel away from the clutches of the mother and at the same time trying (unsuccessfully) to look macho in front of his mates. The campus of Manipal University is spread out and is a sight. It is the brainchild of a visionary — Dr Pai. Every student is given a laptop and a bicycle on admission. The hostel rooms were the usual chaos of a teenager. My wife went into her cleaning up mode immediately to the horror of my son and his room mate. An effort to change the bedclothes and lift the mattress was met by a jump by both roomies to retrieve the “philosophical” magazines stashed under it. Both boys were trembling and clearly on edge as to what more skeletons would come tumbling out of their closet next. I gently guided my better half out of the hostel to check out the dining area while the lads got rid of any other incriminating evidence. Manipal is full of excellent food joints — Snack Shack, Lake View, Basil, Dollops, Saiba etc — the fish is especially good. The mandatory party which apparently has to be given by all parents was a big success. My son’s friends — invited and some who thought that they had been missed out by an oversight — poured into the small restaurant. It was a delight to see the youngsters digging into the delicious food being served with gusto. It seems that such orgies regularly take place to get over the “boring” hostel food — the parents are conned into believing that such parties by them are part of “tradition”. There are a few scenic places — End Point being one. This is the top of a hillock with a lovely view of a serpentine river . The usual haunts like Kamath Chowk (KC in local lingo) , Tiger Circle (tigers were actually seen here according to our local driver!) and the lovely KMC Greens are quite alive and bustling. Diwali at the KC was quite an eardrum -splitting experience. The children are generally well dressed and well behaved — again a little different from Delhi campus. Their main aim in life after studies seems to be to get a good meal away from the hostel ! Finally, the time for the bitter-sweet farewell (to some extent my son was anxious to see us off before any major fiasco!). We left with a better understanding of the “South” with the promise to come
again.
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Water and power crisis in Punjab The World Watch Institute has cautioned that if the water is hauled at this rate, the whole groundwater in Punjab shall be finished by 2025. The only comfortable areas, where the water level is not much lower, happens to be in the vicinity of rivers or in the those districts where the canal irrigation network exists for agricultural purposes. The canal system, which irrigates nearly one-third of the total area in Punjab, is highly skewed and 87 per cent of its catering is just in five districts of Amritsar, Ferozepur, Faridkot, Bhatinda and Mukatsar. Further, more the area under canal irrigation is also declining every year because of decreasing carrying capacity of canals and lesser water coming from the rivers of Sutlej, Beas and Ravi. In 1970-71, the area under canal irrigation was 12.86 lakh hectares, which rose to 16.6 lakh hectares in 1990-91, but fell to 9.62 lakh hectares in 2000-01. At present, 11.01 lakh hectares are under canal irrigation, which is around 36 per cent of the total irrigated area in the state. The water availability from the three rivers has also fallen from 17.17 million acre feet (MAF) two decades ago to around 14 MAF today. The inability of canals to meet the irrigation needs of the state has led to the increase in the number of tubewells, which have led the state to the present crisis. In 1970-71, there were 1.92 lakh tubewells, of which 1.01 lakh were running on diesel while 91,000 were running on electricity. This number trebled to six lakh in 1980-81 and touched eight lakh in 1990-91. At present, the number of tubewells is 12.58 lakh, of which 9.7 lakh are running on electricity while 2.88 lakh are running on diesel. Thus, in a period of three and a half decades, the number of tubewells increased by six times and three-fourth of them are being run on electricity, which led to the higher power consumption in the agriculture sector. This increase in number of tubewells along with deepening water level aggravated the power crisis as more power is needed to draw same amount of water from the deeper water level. According to Dr S. S. Johl’s report on crop diversification, beyond the water level of 5m, every subsequent fall of 5m in water table needs double amount of electric power to draw the same amount of water. Thus, about two decades ago, the water a 3 hp electric motor was drawing is now arranged from deeper levels by 12 hp or of higher power motor, leading to four times increase in power consumption. Based on supply to the agriculture sector, yearly per tubewell power consumption, which stood 2,417 units in 1970, rose to 6,533 units in 1980 and to 8,506 units in 1990. It further went up to 6,970 units in 2000 and 7,092 units in 2005. Thus, the falling water level led to increase in power consumption by 2.5 to 3 times in the agriculture sector in the state. The climatic changes and consequent decline in rainfall further added to the water woes of the state in form of inadequate recharging of groundwater. The annual rainfall, which was 672.3 mm in 1970 and rose to 754.6 mm in 1990, has since been falling rapidly and nearly halved to 391.9 mm in 2000. In the new millennium, it has remained below the mark of 400 mm and stood at 375.5mm in 2004. The combined effect of squeezing canal irrigation, deepening water table and deficient rainfall put pressure on the Punjab State Electricity Board (PSEB), as more power is now needed to pull water for agricultural use. The PSEB, seemingly caught unaware, has added a very little to the generation capacity in the last decade and a half. Contrarily, its connected load stood at 21,078 MW on March 31, 2007, three and a half times to its installed capacity and applications for additional load of 1,635 MW are pending. The twin crisis of water and power calls for immediate attention as both are critical to the agro-based state economy and some drastic steps need to be taken to set the things in order. The state has a wide network of tributaries and sem-nalas, which were dug in the early 60s to solve the problem of water logging. The same now can be used for recharging the groundwater by cleansing them properly and releasing fresh water in them from canals. The cleansing of Kali Bein in the Doaba region by Sant Balbir Singh Seechewal has led to a dramatic rise in water table and the same magic can be made to happen in the whole state. The rainwater harvesting from rooftops also needs to be made compulsory by enacting a suitable law, which many states in India have already done. The canal irrigation system, which is very old and is not in a position to carry the full water according to capacity, needs to be remodeled. By doing so, the capacity of canal irrigation can go up by another 30 per cent according to reliable estimates. The proposed spending of Rs 4,000 crore by the present government can do wonders if spent properly. For controlling the over exploitation of ground water, the crops like paddy need to be discouraged in critical areas and sowing of alternative crops should be induced for few years. Improvement in climatic conditions is also important for which the burning of crop residues in the fields needs to be banned and the area under forest cover has to be upped by taking some drastic steps like encouraging agro-forestry. The PSEB also needs to pull up socks and add to its capacity. The announcements for enhancing the installed capacity by 9,000 MW in three and a half years by the government is a welcome step in this direction and it needs to be done in the minimum of time frame. All these combined efforts can find a sustainable and long-term solution to the water and power crisis of Punjab, which hold the key to the economic and social prosperity of the state.
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Gujarat: mask and the message The
verdict from Gujarat proves it beyond any doubt that in our democratic tradition nothing works, certainly not development agenda, more effectively than emotional appeals and rhetoric igniting raw communitarian impulses. Ironically, Mr Modi, in his election campaigns, initially tried to ride on his so-called successful development report card and seemed to be consciously attempting to delink from his much-battered image of a ‘Muslim basher’. But that was not to be, and one person who is thanking his opponents the most is none other than Mr Modi himself who realised his blunder in making the development card the centre of his election engineering in its early phase. Mr Modi perhaps had erred in thinking of Chandrababu Naidu’s fate in Andhra Pradesh as an exception. If the early 60s witnessed the issue of ‘Roti, kapda aur makaan’ at the centre of our elections, increasingly we find a marked transition from these basic issues towards identity articulations where ascriptive identities like caste, community and religion have dominated the democratic discourse. Bihar here provides a classic example of this trend. Even after decades of ignominy as the most backward zone of India, elections here continue to revolve around caste equations. Inability of the Nitish Kumar Government in Bihar to tame some of his own errant party colleagues and ministers who happen to be not just muscle men with serious criminal records but also strong caste representatives is a case in point. Nitish Kumar fully realises that his political fate will be determined not by how many flyovers were constructed and how many primary schools and primary health centers revived during his tenure but how effectively he managed to maneuver the existing caste equations in his favor. That this is a pan-Indian trend is a sad commentary on our democratic culture. Why is development such an anathema to our political and electoral ethos? Shouldn’t a country with abysmal human development indicators grow beyond these parochial considerations and re-prioritise its democratic agenda? Or is it that the whole process of electioneering has been lately hijacked by the media and its manufactured ideological contestations blocking the real issues to enter the frame of discussion and debate? Isn’t it a shame that the persons of repute, integrity and scholarship have no place in our body politic as they are perceived to be differently challenged in this affair of muck? There are many questions but answer sadly is nowhere in sight. While Mr Modi was taking oath as the Chief Minister of Gujarat, the whole country was busy celebrating Christmas with masks of Santa Claus emerging as the new global mascot of love and harmony. The problem with the masks of Moditva ideology is it also silently legitimises the gory killings of missionary Graham Staines and his innocent children and the mask of Santa becomes for them an item of cultural adulteration from an alien land. Also, there are already serious question marks on the non-inclusive character of his much-talked-about Gujarat development model. One should realise that development is not merely about GDP. Punjab, for instance, may be one of the prosperous pockets of India but can it be called a developed state, given its record on grotesquely falling sex ratio? Finally, if the victory in Gujarat is a ‘turning point’ and a model to be replicated across the country, then we will have to find answers to some of the questions raised here and that too quickly. We can begin by asking why as a society our sms-messages are gullible to caste, religion, region and ethnic traps rather than the merit of the voice of the singer while selecting the best singer on various television shows as witnessed lately. Perhaps we can find some answers from this.
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Inside Pakistan The will left by Benazir Bhutto helped the PPP in finding an immediate answer to the leadership question despite some people doubting its veracity. However, her son Bilawal, her successor, has left Pakistan to complete his studies at Oxford. The party is now under the control of her widower, Mr Asif Ali Zardari, who is disliked by many senior PPP leaders ever since he became a minister during his wife’s prime ministership in the 1990s. Will these leaders keep quiet? Or are they looking for an opportunity to challenge Mr Zardari’s leadership before he becomes stronger enough to silence his opponents? What happens in the days to come will be interesting to watch. According to a write-up by Ansar Abbasi in The News (January 2), when Benazir was alive Mr Zardari “generally avoided direct interaction with senior leaders on party matters and rather had been operating through his spouse.… There are reports that some of the senior PPP leaders are not finding themselves comfortable. “There are also fears … about an external effort to divide the PPP when it is most vulnerable to such an adventure.” It all depends on how Mr Zardari behaves with senior and respected PPP leaders like Mr Makhdoom Amin Faheem, Mr Raza Rabbani, Barrister Aitzaz Ahsan, Mr Jahangir Badar, et al. So far Mr Zardari appears to be playing his cards cautiously. He has ensured that the PPP remains “another name for Bhuttoism”, as Business Recorder pointed out in its editorial this week. He has also “strongly insisted that his party would remain committed to federalism, and that it has no quarrel with the military.” Are these signs of a new scenario likely to emerge soon? After all, the much-discussed deal between Benazir and President Musharraf was believed to be the brainchild of Mr Zardari.
Worst year for scribes If the media has prospered during the Pervez Musharraf rule, journalists have suffered the maximum in this period. According to the figures released by the Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists, 21 journalists lost their lives while performing their duty since October 1999, with 2007 topping the list with seven deaths. Thus, 2007 will be remembered as the worst year for the media professionals in Pakistan. As The News says, “The fact is that simply because of the nature of their work, reporters and photographers are at immense risk from blasts, shootings or other (kinds of) violence.” That is why media organisations are now pressing for effective security measures, including free of cost insurance coverage. They also want bulletproof vests for mediapersons given hazardous assignments. Dawn quotes the Pakistan Media Commission and the South Asian Free Media Association (SAFMA) to highlight the fact that “Pakistan topped the ‘death table’ in South Asia, followed by Sri Lanka and Afghanistan. Seen in the larger context, Pakistan ranks third behind Iraq and Somalia.” “It is fashionable for many to criticise journalists for being irresponsible and sensationalising news. True, not all criticism is misplaced. But when seen against the backdrop of the risks the journalists run while ensuring that people receive information as a matter of right, one must appreciate job the media people do”, as Dawn advises.
Yard for what? Very few newspapers have appreciated President Pervez Musharraf’s decision to invite Scotland Yard to go into the circumstances leading to the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. The Nation says, “An inquiry at a time when most of the evidence has been swept away would neither yield positive results for the investigators nor will it assuage the rage of the supporters of the fallen leader. As far as the PPP itself is concerned … the party is adamant … on conducting an inquiry under the supervision of the United Nations that would be modelled on the inquiry into the death of slain Lebanese leader Rafiq Hariri…” The PPP wanted the involvement of Scotland Yard to ensure foolproof security for Benazir after the unsuccessful attempt on her life in October. Many analysts believe that the story would have been different today had the request been taken seriously by the caretaker government.
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