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Pratibha for President Fight on, tiger Day after day |
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When options run out
An unusual takeover
Great power ambitions behind China’s military build-up A valley at the edge of a war Inside Pakistan
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Pratibha for President THE Congress-led United Progressive Alliance sprang a surprise on the nation when its leader Sonia Gandhi announced the name of Rajasthan Governor Pratibha Patil as its candidate for the post of President. Though she is a veteran Congress leader and Nehru-Gandhi family loyalist, she was not the first choice of the UPA. If the Congress chief had her way, the UPA candidate would have been Home Minister Shivraj Patil. But sections of Congressmen and the UPA like Sharad Pawar’s NCP were opposed to him, not to speak of the Left parties which were decidedly and openly against his candidature. Seen against this backdrop, the selection of Mrs Patil amounts to a setback for Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s plans. Among all the names that cropped up for the post, Mrs Patil’s name was the least unacceptable and this explains why the UPA constituents and the Left parties agreed on it with alacrity. There is little doubt that the UPA chose the Rajasthan Governor as its candidate on the assumption that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will put up Vice-President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat who is likely to contest as an independent. The Shiv Sena cannot afford to oppose her, as she is a Maharashtrian and a non-controversial leader. Gender is another factor that goes in her favour. All this is meant to neutralise Mr Shekhawat’s potential to upset the UPA applecart given his inter-party connections as manifested when he got more votes than were due to him in the vice-presidential election. Now, it is a matter of speculation whether the NDA will go ahead with its plans to support Mr Shekhawat or choose a dark horse like Mrs Patil. The NDA cannot be faulted for rejecting the appeal of the UPA chief and the Prime Minister to support Mrs Patil’s candidature. It is really doubtful whether the UPA was serious when it made the belated appeal. It was like inviting the guests when the dinner has already been laid out on the table. There is little doubt that the UPA leadership, notably Sonia Gandhi, frittered away the opportunity to have a consensual President by toying with the idea of foisting on Rashtrapati Bhavan Mr Shivivraj Patil, who had been defeated in the Lok Sabha elections. There had not been much to write home about his performance as Home Minister. His only claim to the post was his loyalty to the Gandhi family and, as it happened, it did not work. |
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Fight on, tiger THE recent Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) at The Hague has resolved not to renew trade in tiger parts from “farmed tigers,” a crucial victory for tiger conservationists. India has been pressing China not to push for reopening, and China had already come around, having agreed to a joint resolution with India, Russia and Nepal. Success at The Hague is only one step in the fight to save the tiger. As it is, illegal markets are flourishing. Poaching tigers in India is a lucrative activity mainly because these black markets pay well, and many of the tiger parts do end up in China. As tigers vanish from our reserves, the thought of what legally reopened trade would do to the remaining ones was giving nightmares to conservationists. China has an estimated 5000 farmed tigers and the owners of these farms have been pushing for reopening. China has obviously decided to buy time. The country has claimed that these tigers can add another 800 to 1000 every year, and a legal market can actually save the tiger from extinction. Understandably, there are few takers for this argument. A legal market will only complicate India’s efforts to save the tiger — it can, in fact, wreak havoc on wild tiger populations in more than one country. With the Tribal Rights Act moving into the implementation phase, there is also an unfortunate “people vs tigers” dimension to the whole debate. Aspects of the Act worry some conservationists as they do not see co-existence as a viable option, and stress the need for protected reserves free of human populace. Others stress the fact that many of these tribal populations, in fact, conserve and protect forests better than our existing wildlife management systems. In any case, effective implementation of conservation programmes can only happen with a drastically revamped wildlife and forest administration system, and we still do not look like we are going to get one. The tiger’s fight to survive is only beginning. |
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Day after day It
is said that the observation of a day in recognition of a value or enactment of a law against a trend is only formal acknowledgement that nothing more worthwhile can be done about it. So just as we have laws proliferating on a number of issues from violence against women and protection of the environment to trafficking in humans and narcotics, the problem remains unresolved. As such, a law turns out to be mere acknowledgement of a situation about which nothing can or will be done. It is the same with a day designated for a particular focus. From International Human Rights Day and International Women’s Day to Mother’s Day and Father’s Day, the celebration or observance of these days has done little to advance the cause underlying these days. That all these days are so much occasions for releasing hot air has not prevented the United Nations from declaring yet another day — International Day of Non-Violence — to be observed on October 2. While choosing October 2 is a tribute to Mahatma Gandhi, but in a world seething with violence where nuclear power is the acme of supremacy and more is spent in preparing for war than paving the way towards peace, marking a day for non-violence is mocking the spirit of what he stood for. plain mockery. Does it mean that on the other 364 days the world can carry on with its wars, killings, genocides and military battles? The UN resolution on the day will re-affirm the universal relevance of non-violence. Is it for want of such a reaffirmation and resolution that the world is hostage to so much violence and so many big and small wars? Will the global coalition against terror that has occupied Iraq observe this one-day to justify what it does during the rest of the year? Even the Taliban can call a halt to their depredations for one day, but that would not mean that they believe in the relevance of non-violence. It is best if the UN, which is more an idea than an effective institution for keeping global peace, desisted from empty gestures and did more than indulging in symbolic gestures. |
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Non-violence and truth are inseparable and presuppose one another. |
When options run out
The
great paradox of Pakistan’s power politics — just when a person appears to be at his most powerful, he is actually at his weakest — has once again come into play. Until March 9 Gen Pervez Musharraf was firmly ensconced in power and it seemed that there was nothing, except a cataclysmic event, that could shake his hold over the levers of control in Pakistan. Not only was he sitting pretty in power, he also had the future strategy to perpetuate himself all sown up. And then came March 9, when a relatively minor incident (by Pakistani standards) — the sacking of the Chief Justice of Pakistan — changed everything. Today, nothing that Pakistan’s military strong-man says or does seems to be working. In fact, every new step he takes and every new move he makes seems to be making the situation even worse for him. Clearly, unless General Musharraf can now pull some sort of a political rabbit from his commando beret, his political longevity is looking very suspect. And even though the final collapse might still be some months, perhaps even a year or more, away, when it comes it will come suddenly, without too much advance warning. The single most significant change that has come in the wake of the crisis created by the sacking of the Chief Justice is the open defiance of the state’s authority by civil society and the public. Before March 9, despite the sullen mood of the populace, the opposition parties were simply unable to galvanise their supporters and bring them on the streets against the regime. It was almost as though General Musharraf had succeeded in depoliticising the Pakistani public. Interestingly enough, even today, apart from the presence of important opposition leaders at functions being held by bar associations around the country to felicitate the suspended Chief Justice, there is little contribution of the main opposition political parties in the demonstrations of public support in favour of Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. Post-March 9, there is a spontaneous upsurge of the people in support of the suspended Chief Justice, the prime example of which is the historic reception that the Chief Justice received throughout the heartland of Punjab when he travelled from Islamabad to Lahore to address the Lahore High Court Bar on May 5 (a journey that normally takes five hours took 26 hours because of the crowds that thronged the entire stretch of the GT Road). Scared by the public reaction in Punjab, the regime pulled out all stops to prevent a similar show of support for the suspended Chief Justice in Pakistan’s largest city, Karachi. The state-sponsored bloodbath in Karachi on May 12 was the first sign of the growing desperation, indeed helplessness, of the regime before the growing public support for the Chief Justice. But the attempt to muzzle the voice of the Opposition backfired badly on not only the regime but also its allies, namely the MQM. In that one moment of madness, the MQM lost whatever little support it had managed to gather outside its traditional vote bank in urban Sindh. The MQM once again got labelled as a fascist party with a terrorist wing, and has become a hate symbol for the rest of the Pakistanis. What is worse, General Musharraf’s defence of the MQM has for the first time got him identified according to his ethnic origin as a the Mohajir, which is nothing if not a certificate of disqualification to rule over Pakistan. General Musharraf is today getting boxed in from all sides. He has realised that the quislings he gathered around him as his political face are totally ineffective in defending him. In his harangue before a parliamentary party meeting of the ruling coalition, he accused his political allies of leaving him alone “in times of trial and tribulation”. It is not only the reality of the fragility, if not uselessness, of the political coalition supporting him that is causing panic in General Musharraf. His support within the largest political party of Pakistan — the Pakistan Army — is also wearing thin. In an unprecedented move, General Musharraf as the army chief had to extract a statement of support for his regime from the conference of the senior-most generals of the Pakistan Army — the corps commanders and principal staff officers. Pakistani analysts feel that this was once again a desperate attempt to give a spin to the growing disquiet within the ranks of the Army over the abuse being heaped on the armed forces in every nook and corner of the country, especially in Punjab. Compounding General Musharraf’s troubles is the fact that even his benefactors in the American establishment are raising questions about General Musharraf’s longevity, if not his utility. While on the one hand General Musharraf’s ability or willingness to deliver on the issue of terrorism is coming under the scanner, on the other hand the Americans are realising the dangers of depending on a political dispensation in Pakistan that rests on a single individual. For the time being, however, the US administration is sticking to General Musharraf and according him all possible support. But whether this will be enough to keep him in power is doubtful, especially since the expressions of support from the US are not in sync with the domestic public opinion in Pakistan, which is swinging dangerously away from General Musharraf who is being blamed for everything that is going wrong inside Pakistan — insurgency in Balochistan, the Talibanisation of the Pashtun belt, the disaffection in Sindh, the rising inflation and high economic distress levels, and deteriorating law and order situation. Clearly, with the political climate turning inimical to General Musharraf, and with general elections as well as the all-important presidential election round the corner, General Musharraf is running out of options. This plan to get himself re-elected as President by the existing assemblies could very easily precipitate a crisis of unmanageable proportions, which ultimately could lead to the downfall of the current quasi-military regime. What is more, General Musharraf will need a two-thirds majority in the new assemblies if he wants to continue wearing his uniform. The problem is that the ruling coalition knows that unless it can fix the general elections it will never be able to win them. But with every passing day, as a people’s movement builds up against the regime, the ability of the regime to fix the polls is reducing. The big question now is not how long General Musharraf can continue wearing the twin hats of army chief and President, but whether or not he can retain even one of these
hats.
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An unusual takeover
East African
country Mozambique was a peaceful Portuguese colony before seventies, having Maputo, a harbour town, as its capital. Portuguese were rather late in granting independence to Mozambique as in case of Goa. This had created a feeling of deep but quiet unrest. There was no racial discrimination as prevailed in neighbouring South Africa and it was perhaps a restraining factor which did not make Africans of Mozambique violent. Ultimately Portuguese exit was sudden and unique. Thousands of newly-built bungalows facing the Indian Ocean were locked and sealed in haste. Africans guerrillas fully armed with bolt type rifles were seen advancing from forests to towns. Just during this period my cargoship, then in the Persian Gulf, was instructed to proceed to Maputo to pick up Chromeore cargo for Japan. Situation was tense in Maputo harbour, as we berthed. Only ships with non-white crews were allowed to enter harbour. We did not witness any Portuguese or white person anywhere. Glittering well-stocked stores with foreign goods were open but with no white owners or white staff who had fled from all establishments. Surprisingly, junior local African staff took over all sales and managerial duties, including ownership rights, replacing white deportees. Passenger ships were leaving twice a day for Portugal loaded with men, women and children after centuries of Portuguese rule. There was no time to print new national currency or postal stamps. Stamps with Portuguese motifs were completely banned. British pounds, American dollars. Japanese, German, Italian and even Indian currency was accepted by banks and ships as a stopgap measure. Business in post offices had come to a complete standstill except for incoming mail from abroad. Locals accepted these situations and hardship happily. So intense was the hatred against whites that white cows, ducks and white chicken disappeared from visible places to avoid public wrath. Even local sales staff in stores avoided wearing white clothing. No normal advance arrangements for procurement of essential daily use items could be made in this situation. All items were being sold on “till stocks last” basis. The government did not allow even export of apples, bananas and other perishable fruits to conserve food for own country as all imports had ceased. I still wonder how meek, unassuming inexperienced African ladies took over managerial positions hurriedly from fleeing whites in thousands as part of mass exodus from banks, stores, offices and commercial establishments. Airports were not operational as white staff had fled and no replacement was available. Existing stocks in shops vanished in days when one could buy one Gieves English readymade three piece gents suit for one American Dollar or 100 Indian rupees. I purchased one brand new American made Carona Portable typewriter and a Sandoz Swiss automatic watch for one British pound only. It was a unique bloodless revolution
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Great power ambitions behind China’s military build-up
Last
month’s annual Pentagon report on the Chinese military took note of Beijing’s sizable expansion of its capabilities – as have all the reports since the US Defence Department began producing them in 2000. And, as in previous years, much of the commentary inside and outside of the government has focused on China’s lack of transparency. We complain that we don’t know exactly how much China is spending on its military and what exactly it is acquiring. Most important, we complain that we don’t know the strategic “why” behind this buildup. China’s defence spending has been on the rise for more than 15 years. For the first few years, Western commentators dismissed its military modernisation plans as insignificant. Initially they argued that the Chinese only wanted to modernise their forces for homeland defense, and once that was done we could expect a leveling-off. Then they argued that even if the Chinese continued their buildup, it would be decades before they presented a real problem to the United States or its allies in the region. Then, when the pace and scope of the buildup continued beyond what most China watchers had expected, the argument was: China has a robust, growing economy; it’s natural that it would use those additional resources to build a modern military capability. And now, as China adds hundreds of advanced fighters; builds scores of new submarines, frigates and destroyers; modernizes and expands its strategic nuclear arsenal; and fields hundreds of new theater-range missiles, the argument is that China is bent on building up its military capabilities to unprecedented levels because it sees the United States spending more on its military than it has since World War II. There is some truth in that point, but only some. The fact is that the Chinese military buildup really began after the demise of the Soviet Union – that is, precisely when China had the least reason to worry about its defence needs. And the buildup continued during a period when the United States was cutting its own defense budget by significant amounts. Moreover, no other Asian regional power was putting forward double-digit defense increases. To the contrary, Taiwan – presumably China’s main military concern – was slashing its defense budget. And Japan, the only possible regional “great power” competitor to China, was suffering from a decade of economic stagnation, with a static defense budget to match. Of course, since Sept. 11, 2001, U.S. defense spending has skyrocketed. But the vast majority of that increase, as the Chinese well know, has gone toward fighting the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. If one strips away the defense supplemental appropriations for the wars and factors in the jump in personnel costs, America’s defense burden as a percentage of gross domestic product is about what it was during the middle of President Bill Clinton’s time in office. And if the Bush budget office has its way, defense spending will return to those levels or lower after the wars end. To take but one example: Under current procurement and decommissioning plans, the U.S. Navy’s attack submarine fleet will shrink to fewer than 30 boats by the late 2020s. China, meanwhile, has added more than 30 advanced submarines to its fleet over the past decade and has six new submarine programs underway. Obviously, greater transparency by the Chinese would be helpful. But absent a significant shift toward political liberalisation in China, there’s no reason to expect that to happen. And anyway, after a decade and a half of military buildup, do we really need greater transparency to understand what China is up to? The Chinese are a proud people and they want to be seen as a powerful, potentially dominant, state. And power, they understand, includes not only a strong economy but a powerful military. When the Chinese look at the world today, who gets in their way most of the time? It’s certainly not the Europeans, who have economic strength but little hard power. It’s the United States. There is a tendency on the part of American Sinologists to think that China’s “peaceful development” precludes it from craving what all rising powers before it have craved – power and recognition. Yet the Chinese don’t think the two are opposed at all. They view a growing economy as critical to solving their domestic problems, but they also know that it is critical to providing the resources for military modernisation and expansion. The lack of transparency is, if anything, a dodge we’ve used to avoid dealing with the real problem: China’s ambitions to be as great a power as it can be. It’s understandable, perhaps, that with all that is on America’s plate at the moment, we’re not inclined to add China. But that doesn’t change the fact that Beijing believes the more military power it has, the more likely it is that those ambitions will be fulfilled. The writer is director of the American Enterprise Institute’s programme on advanced strategic studies. By arrangement with
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A valley at the edge of a war CHITRAL, Pakistan – In April 2005, when an American named Paul Aurdic drove up from Pakistan’s dusty plains to the crystalline air of mile-high Chitral, he seemed to be what people here want more than anything: a foreign tourist eager to explore their beautiful valley. Aurdic, from the US Consulate in Peshawar, registered as a tourist at a Chitral hotel and began moving into what he told hotel staffers was a rented vacation home. But his carloads of equipment – including a satellite dish and exercise machines – raised suspicions that he was opening a CIA or FBI outpost dedicated to the search for Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida members. When a local legislator voiced the suspicions in parliament and announced a march to protest the American’s presence, Aurdic and a Pakistani colleague left town and the consulate has declined to discuss who they were or what they were doing in Chitral. For years, Chitral’s stunning mountains, trout fishing, polo matches and festivals made this valley as big a tourist destination as Pakistan had. But since Sept. 11, 2001, Chitral has found itself uncomfortably at the fringe of America’s “war on terror” and search for bin Laden. Before and after the mysterious American’s visit, reports quoting Afghan and U.S. intelligence officials said Chitral was a suspected hiding place or travel route for bin Laden. Local people say the terrorist leader would find almost no sympathizers to shelter him here. More than a third of Chitralis belong to the Ismaili sect, which is excoriated by militant Muslims as heretical. People in Chitral “don’t want the FBI or CIA here – or the Taliban or al-Qaida, because we are lucky to have a peaceful place here and these people will disturb it,” said Mahkamuddin, a local reporter. Chitral’s margin of separation from Afghanistan and its war is painfully thin. For six months each year, mountain snows cut this valley’s roads to the rest of Pakistan, leaving it accessible only via Afghanistan. The southern Chitral village of Arandu is reported by residents to be full of spies working for both sides in the war and Afghanistan is holding a local resident, Said Akbar, whom it accuses of having escorted bin Laden through Chitral. (He denies it.) Last year, U.S. troops opened bases just a few miles beyond the ridgelines separating the Chitral valley from Afghanistan. Pakistan-based Taliban have vowed to step up attacks on the Americans, and the valley is a prime guerrilla infiltration route. Amid the war at its edges, Chitral, like Pakistan, struggles to revive itself as a destination for tourists, not terrorists. President Pervez Musharraf’s government has invested in a tourism campaign, but “Destination Pakistan 2007” has been overshadowed by an escalation of Islamic militant violence in the country. Taliban militants have bombed barber shops, music stores and girls’ schools in the ethnic Pashtun zone. Still, much of the country is peaceful – notably this valley. Chitral’s people are not Pashtuns, but rather a mix of small groups forced to accommodate each other because none could dominate, said Inayatullah Faizi, a leading social scientist here. During Pakistan’s half-century of independence, a small but steady tourist trade arose here, catering notably to backpackers, mountain climbers and hunters. “We had foreigners working in Chitral as teachers, too – and we had good experiences with them,” said Abdul Qudus, a driver from the valley. Now, Jeep drivers, tour guides, hotel workers and shopkeepers struggle to survive, said Haider Ali Shah, owner of a venerable hotel, the Mountain Inn. A reporter who checked in in May was the third registered guest this year. Despite the Afghanistan war and rumors of al-Qaida in this valley, a few visitors trickle through. At the town’s ritziest hotel, run by a member of Chitral’s former royal family, a Hong Kong-based anesthesiologist, Assad Hussain, marveled at a moonrise over the silent valley. “It’s unbelievable that there’s a war going on so close,” he said. The choking off of tourism is worsening the real problem, said Sardar Ayub, director of a leading development organization, the Aga Khan Rural Support Program. The valley has no paved road connecting it to the rest of Pakistan, few schools or jobs worth the name, “and no possibilities here for people’s future.” “We have thousands of desperate young men,” said the scientist, Faizi, “and there is an underworld of Islamic militants” working aggressively to recruit them. By arrangement with
LA Times-Washington Post |
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Inside Pakistan The
May 12 Karachi massacre, when sacked Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry could not address a function organised to mobilise support for him, led to an atmosphere of revulsion against the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). Its offices in Pakistan’s Punjab province could not be opened for a few weeks because of the fear of retaliatory attacks. Taking advantage of the situation, Tehreek-e-Insaf Party (TIP) chief Imran Khan has launched a drive against MQM leader Altaf Hussain, who has become a citizen of Britain and lives in London. In this connection Mr Khan has met not only Pakistani leaders but also British politicians to ensure that Mr Hussain is unable to indulge in political activity in Pakistan. The MQM, the party of Urdu-speaking migrants from India settled in Sindh, has reacted by filing a petition in the National Assembly against Mr Khan under Articles 62 and 63 of the Constitution dealing with “piety”. These Articles prevent a person charged with adultery from becoming a member of Pakistan’s parliament. It is not easy to take on the MQM, though it is known for taking to violence to settle political scores. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has offered Mr Khan to help him with “secret information” to establish Mr Altaf Hussain’s involvement in the sensational murder of a prominent politician, Hakim Said, in October 1998. But what about Mr Sharif’s own role? As Dawn says in its editorial on June 14, “Mr Sharif remained Prime Minister after Hakim Said’s murder for another year and all he did was to establish Governor’s rule in Sindh, and the nine persons charged with the crime were acquitted by a court. More than seven years after losing power, Mr Sharif says he has ‘strong evidence’ of Mr Hussain’s involvement in the crime.” Will anybody take him seriously? According to Daily Times (June 14), “The great massacres of Karachi took place during the first PPP government (1988-1990), with the Army under General Aslam Beg standing behind the MQM. At that time, together with President Ghulam Ishaq, Mr Sharif had sided with the MQM against the mainstream PPP and accepted the MQM into his ruling alliance in 1990.” The MQM, an ally of General Pervez Musharraf’s Pakistan Muslim League, has a big support base in Sindh, particularly Karachi and Hyderabad. It does not hesitate in switching sides if that helps its political interests. That may be the reason why the MMA, an alliance of religious parties, does not appear to be enthusiastic about Mr Imran Khan’s campaign.
Nervous leaders Leaders of the ruling coalition, particularly those belonging to the PML (Q), are getting nervous with the general election approaching fast. The most incontrovertible proof of this state of affairs was provided last week by General Musharraf himself when he chided these leaders for doing little to repulse the attacks he was faced with from different quarters, including the Opposition and the media. In frustration he told nearly 150 leaders at Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz’s residence that “I see the party nowhere” in this hour of crisis. In their nervous reaction, these leaders again worked against the ruling coalition’s interests when they did not allow a debate on an Opposition motion on the controversial ordinance (now withdrawn) promulgated to regulate the functioning of television channels. The News (June 12) commented : “As it is, it would appear from their yes vote that they favour, at least wouldn’t mind, PEMRA doubling its fine on the ‘errant’ television channels and the harassment journalists have suffered in recent days.” Thus, the ruling politicians only worked against the coalition’s interests in their overreaction to what General Musharraf had said.
Sinister involvement General Musharraf’s government is faced with another embarrassing development after the alleged involvement of Minister of State for Communications Shahid Jamil Qureshi in the murder of a female Canadian national of Pakistani origin. The minister has been forced to resign, yet the government will have much explaining to do with regard to his reported association with the woman. The News (June 13) says: “There are no hard facts yet, due partly to the understandable reticence of the communication and the apparent reluctance of the police to investigate the death of the woman with whom he was apparently sharing the same residence for months…. Nevertheless, the charge of illegal confinement is going to be hard to shake off for the minister, who has stated he was giving financial help to the woman but failed to explain why he was sharing his residence with her.…” |
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