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Third front, again The dal-roti question |
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Free to roam
There’s no Cold War
Strength in numbers
Jerusalem becoming more Palestinian Punjab’s plan performance
is poor Delhi Durbar
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Third front, again Although
the formation of a front comprising eight regional parties is unlikely to cause any jitters to either the Congress or the BJP, the significance of the effort cannot be undermined. It is obvious that the front intends to make its presence felt in the forthcoming presidential elections. Equally clear is that this would be a signal to the Congress of what support it can muster from the smaller parties occupying the middle ground between the Congress and the BJP. Yet, for all their protestations of being driven by the objective of providing an alternative to the Congress and the BJP, the leaders of the new front are primarily opposed to the Congress and have a record of periodic understanding -— tacit or otherwise —with the BJP. Essentially they would be a greater challenge, although a nascent one, for the Congress -- and its ability to hold on to all the constituents of the UPA -- as well as the Left. For the time being, the Left, which has publicly extended support to the Congress for the presidential election, is unlikely to be swayed by the new front despite its lingering fascination for Mr Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party, as a part of a third front of the CPM’s perception. More than the secularist credentials of the individual leaders, the appeal that the BJP as an anti-Congress rallying point holds for the regional parties is a feature of the new third front that the Left may find unacceptable. The TDP, until it lost office in Andhra Pradesh, was an ally of the BJP and Ms Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK is in the front only because it has to remain in opposition to the DMK. The SP and the INLD of Mr Om Prakash Chautala are also in the front for want of a better option at present. That being the case, the Left is wary of the new front though it will take another look in the event of a wider national realignment that it wished it to take place before the Lok Sabha elections in 2009. The power and play of experiments with a third front comes to the fore in a pre-election scenario, as was seen in 1989 (National Front-Left Front) and 1996 (United Front). It would be premature to conclude which way the new front would lean and how it would affect the Congress and its allies until after the elections to the office of President. The Hyderabad front, however, could make a difference to the arithmetic of the presidential candidates next month. |
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The dal-roti question The
Planning Commission has turned down the Badal government’s demand for Rs 250 crore to fund its scheme for providing subsidised wheat flour and dal to the poor. The commission has dubbed it “unproductive expenditure”. Mr Badal’s party promised the electorate atta at Rs 4 a kg and dal at Rs 20 a kg to win the elections, but it should have expected the rejection of its demand by the Centre. Now it is for the Badal government to arrange funds itself if it is keen to redeem its electoral promise. Why should the Centre fund a scheme it had not approved of? The commision has, however, rightly raised Punjab’s plan allocation for 2007-08 by 27 per cent to Rs 5,111 crore. Mr Parkash Singh Badal might learn the hard way the plain fact that it is easier to make a promise than to keep it. Last time as Chief Minister he gave free power to farmers. But he did not compensate the Punjab State Electricity Board for his largesse and thus financially ruined it. This has also resulted in the wastage of power and plenty of ground water. The atta-dal scheme is expected to cost the exchequer Rs 800 crore a year. Given the way official machinery works, misuse of subsidised ration cannot be ruled out. An official survey to identify the poor included well-off families. The number of proposed beneficiaries was so high that the surveyors were asked to slash the list by half. This is bound to cause discontent among the genuine ones left out. If the atta-dal scheme is sacred to the Badal government, it should not shirk its responsibility to raise money from within the state. This is not an impossible task if it takes some hard decisions. The government remains bloated and it is eating into the state’s kitty. The number of politicians, bureaucrats and police officers occupying unwanted and unproductive offices is very high. There is no need for chief parliamentary secretaries. Sick PSUs continue to be a drain on resources. The state needs a lean and efficient government which spends public money judiciously on development. Mr Badal should ask for central funds for industrial, power and agricultural projects which can generate more wealth for Punjab than for unproductive schemes. |
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Free to roam BSNL has slashed roaming charges countrywide and telecom operators in general are under pressure to even do away with them altogether. In such a scenario, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has gone a step ahead along with the regulators in Pakistan and Nepal in mooting SAARC-wide free roaming. TRAI chairman Nripendra Mishra has reportedly said that a white paper has been moved, which is being considered by the president of the SAARC forum of regulators. Of course, much will have to change before SAARC-wide free roaming becomes a reality. Visa regimes are still restrictive, and this would have to change to create a critical mass of cross-border movement of people, who can make use of such facilities. Connectivity was a key focus in the Shimla declaration recently issued by the parliamentarians of all SAARC countries under the auspices of SAFMA. The parliamentarians noted that “mobile phone connectivity in the region faces technical and other difficulties” and both government and private operators should work towards putting in place a more people-friendly system. TRAI is reportedly also in touch with the European Union for a free roaming agreement there as well. Both business and leisure travel to the EU has been steadily increasing, and many would benefit from such a move. TRAI has been in the forefront in getting telecom operators to reduce their high roaming charges. Mr Misra has also made several other suggestions like sharing of mobile towers, which operators should consider seriously. As he has pointed out, telecom is an area where “regulations struggle to stay abreast of advances in technology.” Governments, regulators and operators should work together in ensuring that the benefits of technology are available to the maximum number of people at the best possible costs. And anything to boost people-to-people contact across SAARC will be a boon. |
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The men who really believe in themselves are all in lunatic asylums. |
There’s no Cold War Ahead
of the forthcoming G-8 summit in Germany there have been a number of commentaries on the signs of restart of the Cold War between the US and Russia. There has been a fierce attack on US policies by President Putin, justifying the multiple warhead missile tests. While the leaderships of both countries have refuted such speculations, there have been pronouncements at lower levels of the bureaucracy which tend to fuel the speculation. The US Secretary of State visited Russia to reassure President Putin about US intentions though her reassurance may not have carried full conviction. There is no doubt that Russia, which is now reasserting itself after years of humiliation at the hands of the US and the West, finds many Western moves and policies hurting its national interests and sentiment. However, the present-day world is different from that of the 1940s and 1950s which triggered the Cold War. The Cold War was a combination of an ideological struggle and an armament race. Today Russia has accepted democracy and market economy as two pillars of its polity and, therefore, no ideological animosity is there with the US, the European Union and Japan as it had during the Cold War era. The US is incurring half of world's military expenditure and spends 75 per cent of the global military R&D outlay. Russia is in no position to run an arms race with the US. No doubt, Russia has produced a new intercontinental missile which it claims can penetrate any missile defence system. It is also developing a new class of nuclear submarines and nuclear missiles for them. These are the products of the continuing long-range R&D programmes of the Russian defence industry. Though these are spectacular achievements, the Russian defence effort cannot keep up with the US and there has been very severe resource crunche in various other areas of Russian defence. This situation is very different from the one that prevailed during the Cold War. The purpose of the Cold War as it was originally strategised by George Kennan was to isolate and contain the Soviet Union and its allies economically, politically, militarily and technologically. Consequently, there was no trade between the US and Western countries and the Soviet Union. The Soviet bloc was surrounded on all sides by military blocs led by the US. The situation today is vastly different. Russia is now a major energy supplier for Western countries, and these nations, particularly Germany, have heavily invested in Russia. Moscow is now one of the G-8 members of industrialised countries that manage the global economy. Russia is expected to expand its energy supply to Europe and other countries and emerge as the leading energy exporter of the globe. In other words, Russia can no longer be contained by the US and the West. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in an article in The Washington Post on December 11, 2005, wrote, ``For the first time since the peace of Westphalia in 1648, the prospects of violent conflict between Great Powers is becoming ever more unthinkable. Major states are increasingly competing in peace and not preparing for war. To advance this remarkable trend, the United States is transforming our partnership with nations such as Japan and Russia, with the European Union and especially with China and India. We are building a more lasting and durable form of global stability, a balance of power that favours freedom.'' This formulation of Dr Rice deserves to be carefully analysed. While she considers violent conflict among great powers unthinkable, she does not rule out competition among these powers. The relationship between the US and Russia is characterised by competition. Russia, cut down in power in world hierarchy after the collapse of the Soviet Union, is attempting to regain its status as one of the great powers of the world. The US is expanding its influence into Eastern Europe, among the former Warsaw pact countries and some of the former republics of the Soviet Union. Russia is trying to use its energy resources to increase the dependence of European countries on itself and utilise the resources generated by high oil prices to countervail the advancing US influence over the erstwhile Soviet republics. While this competition has to be recognised as a factor which is likely to create some tension in the relationship between the US and Russia, it would be a mistake to term it as a resumption of the Cold War and expect that type of relationship to replicate itself. The US tried hard to ensure that pipelines for oil and gas from the Central Asian republics -- from Kazakhistan and Turkmenistan -- should bypass Russia and link up with Turkey. But Russia has outsmarted the US and President Putin has signed an agreement with the Caspian republics linking up their oil and gas pipelines with the main Russian pipelines supplying Europe, thereby hoping to increase European dependence on Russia. In Western Europe, there is a trend to assert greater autonomy vis-à-vis the US in commerce, technology and even defence. The US has taken steps to countervail this trend by encouraging the expansion of NATO and the European Union with the inclusion of former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact nations such as Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria and Slovenia. These "new European" countries, in the words of former US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, are more supportive of US policies than the "old European countries". These countries also have an old traditional unfriendly attitude towards Russia. Therefore, there is a competition between the US and Russia as the former tries to cultivate Russia's neighbours and countries of its traditional sphere of influence, Russia is trying to increase the dependence of Germany and other Western European countries on Russian energy sources. The US is encouraging Ukraine and Georgia to distance themselves from Russia and move closer to expanding the European Union. The Russians have been resisting these moves. Ukraine is one of the original homes of the Tsars and has half the population Russian-speaking and belonging to the Orthodox church. The western half of Ukraine is Catholic and speaks Ukranian. The Russian-US rivalry over Ukraine is reflected in the politics of Ukraine. President Yuschenko is pro-American while Prime Minister Yanukovich is pro-Russian. There are similar tensions in Georgia. The Americans had a lot of influence over Russian domestic politics during the era of Boris Yeltsin. President Putin has managed to cut the power of Oligarchs, who became unduly rich through crony capitalism in the Yeltsin era. The US has been criticising many of these actions and charging the present Russian regime of violation of human rights and restraining of democracy. Most of the Russian mafia chieftains who became Oligarchs of the Yeltsin era have found refuge in the West. At the same time, President Putin is not the shining example of liberalism more than President George Bush. These moves and countermoves are natural in the globalised world of balance of power. Russia tries to balance some of US aggressive moves by improving its relationship with China. That warns the US that pushing Russia too far could be counterproductive in US-Chinese competition. Thus, the game of balance of power goes on. There is no Cold War.
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Strength in numbers
When
we visited Egypt some years ago, it was quite common for total strangers to walk up to us on the street and say: “India? Amitabh Bachchan?” and break into songs from one of his hits in broken Hindi. The experience while we are travelling through Sweden this time is slightly different. Strangers come over with a ready smile and say: “Are you from India?” When we answer in the affirmative, their smile gets wider. The next line invariably is: “Oh we visited your country and loved it”. We thank them profusely thinking that this is just their genial way of greeting a stranger. But when at some parties, we got to meet Swedes who said the same thing, we came down to asking them what they liked about India. In most cases the answer was “human element” or “human warmth”. That made sense. Indians can be friendly towards strangers, while the Europeans generally tend to be reserved, to the extent of appearing to be aloof, uncaring and even snooty. They are so caught up in their daily routines that they have no time even for their family members, leave alone strangers. The real reason for their fascination for India became clear when we ran into some Indian-born Swedish citizens like Rahul from Panchkula who have accompanied visiting Swedish tourists to India. They narrated how the tourists were unresponsive when they were taken to monuments like the Red Fort and the Qutub Minar. After another round of well-known places, the visitors demanded: “But where are the crowds?” That is what they had heard about and were keen to see with their own eyes. They were satisfied only after a visit to Chandni Chowk and a first-hand encounter with the milling crowds. Quite understandable, given that the population of this country spread over nearly 450,000 sq km is only slightly above nine lakh - which can be upstaged even by our little Chandigarh. Except for large cities like Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmo and Uppsala, the country is as good as free from people. Even the situation in the cities was best described by a cab driver from India, Balvinder (Billoo), who speaks Swedish like a native but has not forgotten his rustic Punjabi despite more than two decades here: Iddan lagda hai jiwen itthe permanent curfew lagya hoya hai” (it appears as if there is a permanent curfew here). This despite the fact that the comparatively warm June has almost everyone out of their houses. The land of the midnight sun takes some getting used to. You wait for the nightfall, which almost never comes. Even at 11.30 pm there is enough light for you to read in the open. What can be really called a night comes only around midnight and is gone before you can catch a few winks. The 20 degrees temperature is quite a relief from the 40 degrees plus heat back home, but give me back the Punjab of propah nights any day. |
Jerusalem becoming more Palestinian JERUSALEM - Forty years ago, when Israel captured East Jerusalem and absorbed the Arab neighborhoods, it set out to maintain a large and sustainable Jewish majority in the city it was declaring its eternal and undivided capital. Instead, Jerusalem gradually is becoming more Palestinian and less Jewish. Thousands of Jews leave the city each year, many of them alienated by an ascendant ultra-Orthodox minority that is asserting its socially conservative values and political power. Even as Jerusalem attracts a growing number of Palestinians, polls show that many less devout Jews are becoming estranged from it and are more willing to consider dividing it again. Palestinians made up about a quarter of the city’s residents after the 1967 war; today they account for more than a third of the population of 7,32,100. Demographers say that if current trends continue, Israelis sooner or later will face a painful choice: Give up parts of the city to the Palestinians, who aspire to make East Jerusalem the capital of their own state, or become a minority in a city of profound religious and historical significance. After the 1967 war, Israel’s postwar planners had every reason to believe they could maintain Jerusalem’s solid majority of Jews. They began planting neighborhoods such as Ramot Allon on annexed West Bank land, some for devout Jews drawn to the city by the Western Wall and other holy sites taken from Jordan’s control. Haredim, whose families on average have seven children, were the fastest-growing group in the city. The ultra-Orthodox have enabled Jews to maintain an overall birthrate only slightly below that of Palestinians in the city. But the growing number of haredim also has fed the rise of a political movement with an agenda that has polarized the Jewish populace. Mayor Uri Lupolianski and four of his five deputies are ultra-Orthodox rabbis. Since they were elected in 2003, their administration has channeled more municipal land and spending to their religious community, often over fierce objections by other Jews. In interviews, Lupolianski and Deputy Mayor Uri Maklev argued that many of those who are leaving are seeking better jobs or more affordable housing. Maklev said the ultra-Orthodox have long suffered neglect and now expect “the minimal services they deserve in education, synagogues and playgrounds near their homes.” “Why,” he asked, “should this cause dispute and polarisation?” Critics answer that it is not just a matter of providing services to the ultra-Orthodox where they live: City Hall also is encouraging them to move into less devout neighborhoods, where they often insist on strict observance of Jewish religious law. “This process has been underway for years and serves as a catalyst for outward migration from the city,” said Avi Kostelitz, a modern Orthodox Jew and opposition City Council member from Ramot Allon. Although outsiders tend to view Jerusalem as an Arab-Israeli tinderbox, the city is fragmented into three adverse populations: Palestinians, ultra-Orthodox Jews and less devout Jews. Their conflicts are intertwined, and all are influenced by population trends. Roughly 20 percent of the city is “haredi,” a Hebrew term that means “fearful” or one who fears God. Members of the community are distinguishable by their black coats and hats and long dresses. They follow complex and demanding rituals spelled out in Jewish law, which requires prayer and quiet on the Sabbath. Drawn to pray at Jerusalem’s holy sites, most haredi men are religious scholars who have large families. They live in voluntary poverty and pay minimal taxes for the benefits they receive. For Palestinians, 34 percent of the population, Jerusalem is a magnet, offering more jobs than any city in the West Bank or Gaza Strip. The remaining 46 percent are secular and modern Orthodox Jews, categories often lumped together by demographers even though their practices differ widely. They work in universities, government agencies and the tourist trade. They tend to be repelled by the city’s poverty, threats of Palestinian violence and tensions with haredim, who have thrown rocks to stop Jerusalem traffic on the Sabbath and burned clothing stores for selling “immodest” attire. These less devout Jews often look to Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities as more attractive alternatives. Israeli analysts say one reason many Israelis would accept dividing Jerusalem is their estrangement from the city. The Jerusalem Institute poll showed that nearly two-thirds of Israelis thought of their capital as “a city of the ultra-Orthodox,” nearly half said it was poor, and one-third considered it “scary to live in.” “Jerusalem is dismal, depressing. People there are nervous, agitated and cross,” said Sharon Daya, 38, a swimming instructor who lived in the city all her life until she moved five years ago to a western suburb with her husband and three children. “I miss nothing about it. I go to great pains to avoid going there.” Daya said Israel’s vision of a unified Jerusalem had given way to political and religious intolerance. “Ultimately, there will be no escaping the need to divide it ... like it was in the past,” she said. By arrangement with
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Punjab’s plan performance
is poor As
state finance minister Manpreet Badal sets out to prepare his maiden budget for 2007-08 (he is already on the job), he has a daunting task. The state financial apple cart has been totally imbalanced due to the politics of populism practiced over the last decade. The growth rate for the financial year 2006-07, as projected in last year’s budget, was 5 per cent, way below the national average of nine plus. The fiscal deficit of the state at 4.5 per cent is amongst the highest compared to other states. The salaries, pensions and interest payments take away 73 per cent of the revenue receipts. The state debt of Rs. 53,391 crores has trebled in the last decade and is 331 per cent of the revenue receipts. The widening gap between the revenues and expenditure has been fuelled at both ends in the form of declining revenue sources and increasing expenditure. The state is totally dependent on market borrowings for financing its growth plans and other economic activities. The picture of the annual plan of the state is also dusty. Plan expenditure is the only expenditure which is considered as a good one by the economists. The size of the plan for 2006-07 was fixed at Rs 4000 crore, merely 12 per cent up from the previous year’s figure of Rs 3557. However, the actually spending in 2005-06 was only Rs 2116 crore, showing a plan performance of 59.46 per cent. Haryana on the other hand has a plan performance of 123 per cent for the previous year, and many other states have also showed similar trends. Though the plan performance of past year is yet to be declared, the annual plan for 2007-08 has been pegged at Rs. 5111 crore, showing an increase of 27.5 per cent over the previous year. The state plan of Andhra Pradesh on the other hand, which was Rs 13,439 crore in 2005-06, rose to Rs. 19,717 crore in 2006-07 and again to Rs 30,013 crore for 2007-08, showing an increase of 47 per cent and 52 per cent for successive years. The same is true with Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and some other fast growing states. Our figures somewhat match with the so called BIMARU states. For funding the annual plan, the state has little to contribute from its own sources. Given the situation of the previous fiscal, the task of the current year is even more challenging due to lengthy promises made to the people by the ruling party before elections. The state needs another Rs. 2500 crore for free and subsidised power, Rs 800 crore for the free Atta-Dal scheme, another Rs 700 crore for teachers to be deployed and another Rs 500 crores for DA enhancements, grade revisions and other exigencies, taking the total additional amount needed to Rs 3500 crore. Without additional resources, the state may even fail to meet its statutory duties in the form of non-plan expenditure of salaries, pensions, interest payments, administrative expenses and repairs to state properties. The debt servicing ratio has already crossed the danger level of 20 per cent and the state cannot afford to take additional loans without risking financial instability and possible decline in the growth rate. The only option before the finance minister is to be more innovative and find some greenfield areas where more people could be brought under the tax net. Among these can be sand quarrying and mining, which now is worth Rs 1000 crore annually and is in the hands of an organised mafia. Resale of vehicles, palatial bungalows, high-net worth individuals, and business houses with heavier sales, should be brought into the net. The services, which contribute about 40 per cent to the GSDP, is altogether a neglected area and a module is needed to bring them under the tax net. Apart from searching for the new sources, the existing ones need to be plugged to prevent the revenue leakage. According to rough but reliable estimates, Rs 700 crore to Rs 1000 crores leaks from stamps and registration due to under-evaluation of the properties, Rs 500 to Rs 600 crores goes away from excise barriers put up at the entry points and Rs 4000 to Rs 5000 crore of VAT is evaded. The writer teachers at NJSA Government College, Kapurthala |
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Delhi Durbar The
Escorts Heart Institute and Research Centre Limited and India’s top cardio-thoracic surgeon, Dr Naresh Trehan, have belatedly realised that they have wasted enough breath during their 10-day long slanging match. Both Shivinder Mohan Singh, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Escorts Heart Institute, and Dr Trehan, seem to have decided not to look back and get on instead with the immediate task of accelarting the growth of their respective medical centres. While Dr Trehan’s loyalists, reportedly touching nearly a hundred, have followed him to Indraprastha Apollo hospital, Escorts claims that the figure is actually half and those who have left were “there for an individual, not for an institution.” Between the Shivinder Mohan Singh camp and the Trehan camp are doctors who have been tactful in remaining neutral. One such cardiologist quipped that he was neither with Mulayam nor with Mayawati.
Easy does it After UPA Government law officers Vikas Singh and Amarendra Sharan had taken a tough stand in the Supreme Court over its intervention in the appointments of the Forest Advisory Committee and on the issue of erratic power supply in Delhi, Law Minister H.R. Bhardwaj has asked them to tone down their stance and not to follow an unnecessary course of confrontation with the judiciary. The two Additional Solicitors General of the Government had questioned the jurisdiction of the apex court in interfering in these matters. After seeing media reports on Vikas Singh’s and Sharan’s heated arguments in the two cases, Bhardwaj advised them on the telephone to be a trifle flexible and humble in making their submissions. Apparently the Government, which faced one tough judicial order after another on sealing in Delhi and the OBC quota cases, wants to keep the judiciary in good humour.
CD business The CD episode in Himachal Pradesh, which led to the suspension of party MLA Vijay Singh Mankotia, could not have come at a worst time for the ruling Congress, which faced a tough fight in the Lok Sabha by-election for the Hamirpur seat. Though the Congress acted firmly against the MLA, who made allegations of corruption against Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh, the party avoided a comment on the charges. Party spokesperson said that the central leadership was seized of the entire issue and was ascertaining all facts. Necessary steps would be taken when required. The detractors of the Chief Minister in the party are reading a lot into the high command’s stance, while the CM is continuing with his counter attack against his critics. Contributed by Tripti Nath, S.S. Negi and Prashant Sood |
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