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Peace in Punjab Focus on farmers |
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Test for
Vasundhara
Foreign policy blues
Operation ‘Samerbahisht’
Not much trickling down The diminishing relevance of the G-8 US still standing by Musharraf
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Focus on farmers The
Centre has now some special gifts for farmers: they will get short-term credit up to Rs 3 lakh at 7 per cent interest rate from the 2006-07 kharif season. There is also some relief on interest liability on loans up to Rs 1 lakh. There is, however, a snag: bank loans do not come as easily as those from moneylenders. Banks’ procedures and managerial attitudes keep off marginal farmers. The better-off farmers usually grab facilities meant for helping the poor. Besides, farmers frequently misspend their loans. The purchase of tractors, unviable for their small land-holdings, often lands them in a debt trap, especially when crops fail and they spend the money on marriages. Irrigation has been getting increased funds. As the Finance Minister is aware, water-use efficiency in agriculture is very low. Rainwater harvest is also not getting due attention. States attach very low priority to water conservation. The Central scheme to renovate and preserve water bodies, announced in the last UPA Budget, is confined to 23 districts and needs to be extended. The Centre has not cared to help Punjab and Haryana, which have over-exploited their water resources to produce enough rice for the Central pool, in arresting the declining water table. There is much talk about but little action on crop diversification. It will not happen unless the returns from alternative crops are made lucrative and assured. Simultaneously, a farmer-friendly policy framework for contract farming needs to be put in place. The processing of fruits and vegetables is on a low key and wastage is huge in the absence of cold storages. Agriculture will not be able to grow at the expected rate of 4 per cent unless its dependence on the monsoon is reduced and coordinated efforts are made to raise productivity to the global levels. Punjab Agriculture University, which has got Rs 100 crore from the Centre, will hopefully play the desired role in ushering in the much-needed Second Green Revolution. But the government has to ensure that Rs 25,000 crore it has promised is well-spent on agriculture and is backed by continuous monitoring. |
Test
for Vasundhara The
sudden bout of violence involving
Gujjars and the Rajasthan authorities that claimed many lives could
have been averted had the civil, police and intelligence officials
been vigilant. Unfortunately, there was no let up in violence on
Wednesday and it spread to many other places spilling over to the
highways connecting Jaipur with both New Delhi and Agra. This has disrupted road and rail traffic in the state. The question arises how the state government failed to gauge the Gujjar mood. They have been demanding the Scheduled Tribe tag for their community which they think will give them more benefits like jobs and educational facilities. Small wonder, no precautionary measures were taken and the administration was totally clueless about the magnitude of violence. And when the situation slipped out of their control, the police resorted to indiscriminate firing and mercilessly beat up protestors, including women. While the Gujjars should not have taken the law into their hands, the police too should have exercised restraint. They should have behaved responsibly instead of resorting to indiscriminate firing and brutal methods of crowd control. The roots of the crisis can be traced to the continued socio-economic backwardness of the Gujjars. They have been suffering from apathy, neglect and alienation even though they constitute 7.5 per cent of the state’s total population. They say that while they have been deprived of their share of the development cake, the Meenas and the Jats have advanced far ahead and become upwardly mobile with berths in the IAS, the IPS, state civil services, etc. They feel that the Scheduled Tribe status can provide the cure for their ills. However, reservations alone will not help alleviate the Gujjars’ sufferings. The solution to their problem lies in providing their children good education — from the school up to the university level — and subsequently creating suitable employment opportunities for them. The Vasundhara Raje government should waste no time in addressing their concerns for the simple reason that no state can progress by alienating or ignoring any section or community. It should take suitable measures to convince them that it cares for them and for their welfare. Meanwhile, every effort must be made to check violence and restore normalcy in the state. |
Your business is not to govern the country but it is, if you think fit, to call to account those who govern it.
— W.E. Gladstone |
Foreign policy blues
India’s
foreign policy following the collapse of the Soviet Union was skilfully crafted by the Narasimha Rao government. It was recognised that in the post-Cold War era, India like China and Russia had to fashion a new relationship with the United States while the strengthening existing ties with other centres of power — Russia, Japan and the EU. While a cooperative and tension-free relationship with China was desirable, China’s unrelenting efforts to “contain” India by nuclear and missile transfers to Pakistan, its inroads into the Indian Ocean and its insatiable appetite for the world’s resources of energy and raw materials could not be ignored. Narasimha Rao ensured that despite American pressures, India’s strategic nuclear autonomy was not compromised. Similarly, the most significant achievement of the Vajpayee years was the skill with which India demonstrated its economic strength and diplomatic finesse to withstand global pressures, including economic sanctions, after its nuclear tests of May 1998 — the tests that led to a new recognition and respect for the country’s potential. When Dr Manmohan Singh assumed office in May 2004, India enjoyed a measure of regard and respect in important world capitals because of its economic potential, the resilience of its democratic institutions and its military strength. The United States acknowledged that India constituted one of the six important centres of global power in the coming years. India was invited to participate along with China, South Africa and Brazil in Summit-level meetings following G-8 Summits. Commerce Minister Kamal Nath fashioned viable coalitions as the WTO moved towards further trade liberalisation in the Doha round. Resisting protectionist pressures, Dr Manmohan Singh showed political courage in fashioning free trade agreements with countries like Singapore and Thailand. Sadly, we reverted to our protectionist mindset in finalising a path-breaking free trade agreement with ASEAN. Hopefully, this will be redressed soon. Our “Look East” policy has been carried forward satisfactorily during the past three years in much the same manner as we have strengthened relations with a newly assertive Russia under President Putin. The Russia-China-India grouping will hopefully be complemented with a US-Japan-India initiative. Despite sniping from the Left parties, Dr Manmohan Singh has attempted to go ahead with policies of improving relations with the United States. He has, however, tried to implement the Indo-US nuclear deal with far too much secrecy and an absence of being able to anticipate the pitfalls ahead. The Hyde Act passed by the US Congress contains provisions that are totally unacceptable. The Prime Minister will have to recognise that the nuclear deal will continue to haunt him if he fails to fulfil the assurances made in Parliament about our refusal to accept conditions that would adversely affect India’s nuclear weapons programme or indigenous thorium-based fast-breeder power programme. Likewise, India should not put itself in a position of importing reactors from any country unless fuel supplies are guaranteed (with penalty clauses for non-compliance) for the lifetime of the reactors and we are accorded the unfettered right to reprocess spent fuel. India will have to patiently but firmly negotiate the issues involved till the 45-nation NSG formally ends its sanctions before we commence implementation of the commitments we have made. Within South Asia, India can derive satisfaction with the manner in which developments in Nepal are taking shape, though we came close to alienating the people of Nepal by seeming to be too solicitous of the interests of a the widely despised monarch in the midst of a popular agitation against him. Over the past three years the government had appeared rudderless in dealing with the compulsive hostility of the Khaleda Zia government in Bangladesh. It is fortuitous that the present caretaker government has adopted a more friendly approach. Our approach to Sri Lanka has similarly been rudderless because of the virtual veto given to southern coalition partners of the UPA. Dr Manmohan Singh has handled the dialogue with Pakistan on J&K and other issues imaginatively. But excessive secrecy is raising doubts about the position India has taken in the dialogue. But the Prime Minister appears to show little understanding of the dynamics of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and the government has played into the hands of General Musharraf by its ill-advised approach to the establishment of a non-functional Joint Terror Mechanism. Dr Manmohan Singh has also not exactly inspired confidence with his readiness to withdraw Indian forces from Siachen with scant regard for the consequences if Pakistan moved into the positions vacated by India. Merely because Pakistan is discussing frameworks to resolve Jammu and Kashmir that involve no change in borders does not mean it has discarded old ambitions. This is evident from the objectionable references to J&K at a recent meeting of OIC Foreign Ministers that Islamabad hosted and from the deliberate failure of Islamabad to dismantle to infrastructure of terrorism on its soil. New Delhi has consistently failed in the past three years in its approach to issues of energy security. Inept diplomacy led India losing out to China for oil exploration contracts in Angola and Kazakhstan. New Delhi then messed up negotiations with Myanmar for the supply of offshore gas by insisting, much to Myanmar’s discomfiture, that the gas should be piped through Bangladesh. Similarly, rather than taking the simple route of negotiating only with Iran for guaranteed delivery of gas through the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline at our border, we have got involved in messy tripartite negotiations with Iran and Pakistan despite warnings that India has received in the past from the highest level in Pakistan that gas supplies could be cut off in crisis situations. Finally, if the manner in which India had to withdraw the ill-advised nomination of Mr Shashi Tharoor for the post of UN Secretary-General was the symbol of inept and thoughtless diplomacy embarrassing India internationally, New Delhi can derive satisfaction on the success of its policy of cultivating members of European Parliament — a move that has led to much better appreciation of issues pertaining to Jammu and Kashmir throughout Europe. The individual who deserves high praise for this effort is Mr N.N. Vohra, Special Representative for J&K. It was Mr Vohra who fought a hard battle to persuade people who matter that transparency was the best approach for a democracy like India in dealing with the international community. Banning dialogue between people in India and Pakistan, in which representatives of Jammu and Kashmir from both sides of the Line of Control participate by refusing to issue visas to Pakistani nationals, is hardly the way to carry forward the Prime Minister’s concept of “making borders irrelevant”. |
Operation ‘Samerbahisht’
It
was the summer of 1964. Our summer vacations had started. I remember that May 24 morning. Five teenaged boys, including yours truly, were cycling down the roads of Lucknow. Destination Malihabad. The very mention of the word Malihabad brings to mind those export-variety Dasehri mangoes, called ‘samerbahisht’ in local lingo. The luscious flavour of this mango lingers on the road passing through this tehsil town near Lucknow. Rows upon rows of mango orchards greeted us. It was a luscious sight worth going miles to see. Dangling on the branches were those ‘Samerbahisht’. There were more fruit than leaves on the trees which were not more than 8 ft high. “These mangoes are for export only”, said one of the gardeners as he walked up to us with a “danda” in hand. The message was loud and clear: “Keep off”. He was soon joined by three more “malis” with similar dandas in hand. “Ee mandi mein naahi milihae,” (you won’t get these in the market), said one of them. We kept our cycles on the ground and requested the gardener to let us pluck at least one mango. The request was greeted with a “danda” blow on the cycle. Soon we were back on the road. We were silent. The rude shock had shaken us. And then my elder brother, Ronnie, broke the silence:”We must get those mangoes”. “Yes “, said Mohinder Singh. Abidul Haque and I also agreed to carry out an “operation samerbahisht” . The next morning before the break of dawn we were cycling down towards Malihabad. Ronnie and Mohinder Singh had taken a hockey stick each while Abid, Ravi and I had kept bagful of stones in the cycle carrier. The early morning breeze must have lulled the gardeners into sleep. We crossed into the barbed wire fencing undetected. I had my first feel of a “samerbahisht”. I plucked the luscious fruit. It weighed almost half a kilo. What a contrast to the dasehris we get in the market. This dasehri variety weighs three in a kilo. As Ronnie reached for one of the luscious fruits, it fell from his hand. There was a thud as the half kg fruit hit the ground. It sounded like a bomb blast in that early morning silence. There was a rustle of white linen as one of the gardeners got up. “Chor, Chor”, he shouted. The battlecry was picked up by two other malis. “Bhaag”, shouted Ronnie. And then the chase began. We had parked our cycles 1 km from the orchard. It was a run for life. I was bringing up the rear. I tripped and fell. The nearest mali was 10 yards away. Ravi, who was ahead of me, stopped. He took his mango and hurled it.The juicy missile hit the target. The gardener stopped in his tracks. I was back on my feet and soon the five of us had gained a 100 yard lead. As we reached our parked cycles, we took out the stones; and started pelting them at the approaching malis. They stopped in their tracks and then beat a retreat. In the end, our catch was just two “samerbahisht”
mangoes! |
Not much trickling down Prime Minister
Dr Manmohan Singh’s recent suggestion that the top executives of the business and industrial enterprises should have a voluntary cut in their emoluments, has once again given rise to a public debate about the pattern of economic development that India has, of late, been undergoing. Clearly, the changes introduced in 1991 have proved beneficial to the Indian economy in a number of ways. Next to China, India, in the last few years, has seen the fastest rate of growth in the world. Between 1993 and 2003, its economy has grown at average rate of 6.2 per cent and thereafter at the rate of 8 per cent. In the year 2006-07, the rate of growth has been as high as 9 per cent. As an outsourcing destination, India has attracted a large number of sophisticated items. The size of its Information Technology industry is now larger than that of any other country in the world, excepting the United States. Foreign remittances to the country from Indians working abroad have risen phenomenally. As compared to the precarious position in 1991, when the foreign exchange reserves could meet the country’s import requirements for 17 days only, the reserves have gone up to a record figure of $ 180 billion. Foreign Direct Investment has also been making a steady headway. What is still more significant, India, of late, has seen a high rate of savings – about 32 per cent – as well as a high rate of investment – about 34 per cent. Credit, of late, has been expanding at the annual rate of 30 per cent. The total trade in goods and services has gone up from 17 per cent of the GDP in 1990 to 45 per cent in 2006. All this, coupled with growing foreign exchange reserves and remittances from abroad, has virtually set the Indian economy on what has been called ‘auto-pilot mode’. The growing confidence of the investors in the Indian economy is also visible in the rapid rise of the stock exchange Sensex. During the last four years, the share prices have risen four-fold. But the above is only one side of the story. The other side is rather sad and depressing. Growth is, undoubtedly, important. But equally important is its nature and the direction it takes. If it leads to concentration of newly created wealth in a few hands or if it brightens only a few sectors of the economy, it could give rise to social conflicts and even undermine political stability. A truly beneficial pattern of growth is not merely to have a fast pace, it must also be balanced and generative of forces that strengthen the overall system. In India, only a few limited segments of the society and a few sectors of economy have gained from the spurt in growth witnessed recently. The rich have become richer. The middle class is also now more prosperous. But a vast majority of the people remains where they were earlier. The disparities of income are mounting. While one third of our rural population lives only on Rs 12 a day, a fresh graduate from a Management Institute can get an annual salary of Rs one crore, that is, about Rs 25,000 a day. A recent World Bank report titled Global Economic Prospect (2007) – Managing the Next Wave of Globalisation, has observed: “India, a country with low initial inequality, is headed for one of the fast increase in income inequality anywhere”. In a country where millions remain hungry and diseased, the combined wealth of 36 richest Indians had touched dollar 191 billion in the year 2006”. In the matter of poverty reduction, too, the performance of the Indian economy has been dismal. In absolute numbers. About 300 million Indians were below the poverty line in 04-05. There is another method of measuring poverty – percentage of low-weight babies to the total number of babies born in a country. This percentage reflects more accurately the state of malnutrition; that is, the state of poverty. In India, the current percentage of low-weight babies to the total number of babies born is as high as 48. On this reckoning, the percentages of the Indians living in poverty should be taken as 48. The recent spate of suicides by the poor farmers in the country should serve as an eye opener to all those who view economic progress in terms of GDP growth. In any case, this growth in India has been pro-rich rather than pro-poor. The Green Revolution and other positive changes notwithstanding, a sizeable number of landless and marginal farmers in India even now are born in debt, live in debt and leave the burden of debt for their progeny. Ironically, the economic ‘reforms’ of 1991 are resulting in a swelling of the ranks of unemployed and under-employed persons. The Economic Survey (2006-07) has observed: “Employment growth in the organised sector, both public and private, declined during the 1990s. The annual employment growth in establishments covered by the employment-market and market information system of the labour ministry, decelerated from 1.20 per cent during 1993-94 to 0.38 per cent per annum during 1994-2004.” The Planning Commission’s Approach Paper to the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-2012), too, has expressed particular concern over “the sharp increase in unemployment (from 9.5 per cent to in 1993-94 to 15.3 per cent in 2004-05) among agricultural labour households which represent the poorest groups”. Apart from the inadequacy of employment generation, whatever additional jobs have been created have largely come in the unorganised sector. In this sector, there is no job security, no protection of labour laws, no access to health or housing and no minimum wage. It is a hard struggle all the way in a harsh environment. There are contracts and sub-contracts. It virtually amounts to working for the longest hours at the cheapest rate. And it involves casualisation of regular jobs. It should be clear from the above facts that in a country of India’s complexity and social background, measurement of progress on the basis of increase in gross domestic product could lead to wrong conclusions. Anyone who goes around Delhi’s restaurants and hotels on New Year’s Eve would certainly find thousands of sleek cars parked outside, with their owners spending virtually lakhs of rupees at every table, while thousands sleep, in the dead winter, on pavements, in corridors and underneath the fly-overs. When measured in terms of car-production and services inside the restaurants and hotels, the increase in gross domestic product would be impressive. But would it reflect advancement of the society or its retardation, progress and prosperity or debasement of its values? And how would this increase end the misery of the poor? What is required is not merely a voluntary cut in fat salaries but a thorough review of the current policies and programmes of the government and the manner in which the special projects for the welfare of the poor and deprived sections of the population are being implemented. The policy-makers should ask themselves as to why, even after 16 years of ‘reforms’, no trickle down of economic growth has occurred, why machinery of governance remains poor and why India’s ranking on UNDP’s Human Development Index has not improved. The writer is a former Union Minister |
The diminishing relevance of the G-8 There
is, in case you have not yet noticed, another G8 summit coming up in Germany. You will notice, if only because substantial protests are being planned, that “Smash G8” placards have been written, that wire barricades are being erected and that police are primed. The razzmatazz, as so often, obscures the substance – which is that the world economy is currently experiencing a global boom, and more than this a boom that is more widely dispersed than any previous one in human history. It is a boom that is rewriting the world’s economic power book. As a result, the G8 – the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Canada and Russia – no longer represent the world’s most buoyant economies. Power is shifting towards the twin Asian giants of China and India, both of which are growing far faster than any G8 member, even including Russia; and to the energy exporters of the Middle East, and to some extent to Latin America. When these economic summits were started by President Valery Giscard d’Estaing at the chateau of Rambouillet near Paris in November 1975, the six countries that took part (Canada and Russia joined later) could think of themselves as making the key economic decisions for the world. They declared that they were “determined to overcome high unemployment, continuing inflation and serious energy problems”, and you could at least acknowledge that it was within their authority to have a stab at these. Now they make similar declarations, though with the balance swung away from unemployment and towards poverty in Africa and concerns about the environment. But the outcomes are not really within their control, even if they could agree on the policies, which they can’t. What the “non-G8” world thinks and does is ultimately going to be more important. That first economic summit was 32 years ago. Barring some global catastrophe that does not bear thinking about, in another 32 years’ time in 2039, China will be on the brink of passing the US to become the world’s largest economy. India will be indubitably the world’s third largest. So if one is considering the policies that might best contain global warming in, say, 2050, the decisions by China and India over the next 30 years will be the key ones determining the outcome. So why aren’t they in the G8 tent? In one sense they are, in that they attend these meetings as observers, as do a number of other key countries including Brazil, South Africa, and Mexico. But they have made it clear that they are just that: they are not participating. Thus India’s Environment Minister, Pradipto Ghosh, said last week that India would reject proposals put forward at the G8 to limit greenhouse gas emissions. “Legally mandated measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are likely to have significant adverse impacts on gross domestic product growth of developing countries, including India,” he said. “This in turn will have serious implications for our poverty alleviation programmes ... this is not the path we wish to pursue.” As for China, it is already the world’s third-largest trading nation, and its President, Hu Jintao, will be in Heiligendamm. But the Chinese have made it clear that they have not been asked to become a full member of the summit club and have pointedly said that since they have not been asked, they cannot give any answer as to whether they would like to join or not. Indeed you could make a strong case that it is not in China’s self-interest to become too close to the G8. It would have not much to gain and a certain amount to lose. It can, after all, play its global role on its own. Take investment in Africa, one of the G8’s priorities. China’s fund for investment in infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa is nearly three times the size of the one agreed by the G8. China needs the US and the European markets to sell its goods. It also needs international investment. But these can be secured by bilateral agreement. There are a string of issues on the agenda at Heiligendamm but at their head is the one of the environment. At some stage the world will need to negotiate a new Kyoto agreement on carbon emissions and clearly countries such as China, India and Brazil will need to be party to this. The present agreement, which is deeply unsatisfactory since it only covers the developed world, formally ends in 2012. It is in everyone’s medium-term self-interest that is should be replaced with something more universal. It is in the interest of the new industrial giants because they are likely to suffer most from climate change. It is in the interest of the present developed world because it will be hard to sustain ever-tougher environmental measures if the effect of these is massively outweighed by increased emissions from the new developed world. So the geo-political bedrock for a deal is there. The market, too, will help a bit. Higher energy prices support conservation and a switch to cleaner technologies. But the lead has to come as much from the East as the West. The headlines next week are going to be about the fissure between the positions of the US and the EU. But rows between the US and Europe have a curiously antique feel to them. We need to have all the elephants in the big tent - and we need to pay attention to their views, their culture and their values. By arrangement with
The Independent |
US still standing by Musharraf ISLAMABAD – When President Pervez Musharraf survived back-to-back assassination attempts in 2003, he might have thought the worst lay behind him. But now, after easily quelling any threat to his power during eight years of military rule, the general appears trapped in a labyrinth of his own making. His attempt 2½ months ago to sideline the country’s independent-minded chief justice touched off nationwide protests that have coalesced into a full-blown pro-democracy movement. Islamist militants have established a firm foothold in the tribal borderlands, and vigilante-style followers of a radical cleric here in the capital have been kidnapping police officers and menacing those they consider to be promoting a licentious lifestyle. Musharraf’s supporters are blamed for bloody street fighting earlier this month in Pakistan’s largest city, Karachi, which killed more than 45 people, many of them workers for opposition political parties. And the general’s once-polished speeches and public statements lately have taken on a tone that alternates between shrill accusations and near-tearful pleas for understanding. Longtime political allies are beginning to distance themselves from the 63-year-old Pakistani leader. And although top generals appear to be standing by him, even government ministers are remaining silent in the face of withering criticism of his rule, or offering only a tepid defense. The choices facing Musharraf are stark ones, analysts say. He could hunker down and try to ride out the current crisis, or move to declare martial law. He could seek to strike a deal with opposition figures, who are likely to spurn him. Or he could step aside. Amid the turmoil, the US increasingly is viewed as the main power propping up Musharraf in the face of calls that he renounce his position as army chief, allow the creation of an interim government and call free and fair elections. Some observers warn that the Bush administration’s continuing support for Musharraf at this crucial juncture could threaten long-term U.S. interests in Pakistan. For the time being, the general appears to retain the backing of his patrons in the Bush administration, with whom he cast his lot after the Sept. 11 attacks. That relationship has been clouded, however, by allegations that Musharraf’s intelligence services remain entangled with Islamist militants, including the Taliban. “Are we pulling away from Musharraf? No,’’ said a U.S. diplomat, who spoke on condition that she not be named. “Because that would be pulling away from the government of Pakistan. We will not draw away from this relationship.’’ Senior army generals have derived enormous benefit from Musharraf’s close relationship with Washington and many analysts doubt they are willing to push him aside – at least, not yet. But there is general agreement that if the senior military echelon were to decide at some point that Musharraf had become a liability, he would have little choice but to go. “The endgame, whatever it turns out to be, will come from the military,’’ said Hussain, senior editor at the Pakistani magazine Newsline. By arrangement with
LA Times-Washington Post |
For the Arti (worship) of God, the firmament becomes the salver, the sun and the moon are the lamps, while the galaxies of stars are as scattered pearls. |
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