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Quota on hold French toast |
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RBI plays safe
Air attack by LTTE
Franc fascination
Changing face of Pashtun society Russia’s man of transition Defence Notes
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Quota on hold THE Supreme Court is wholly justified in rejecting the Centre’s petition seeking vacation of its stay order on the implementation of 27 per cent reservation of seats for the Other Backward Classes in institutions like the IIMs and IITs from this academic year. Surprisingly, ever since the March 29 stay order, the Union Ministry of Human Resource Development had not deemed it fit to respond to the main question raised by Justice Arajit Pasayat and Justice L.S. Panta. In their order, the judges asked the Centre to justify the rationale for fixing 27 per cent OBC quota on the basis of the 1931 census. However, Union HRD Minister Arjun Singh and his officials have been evading this question. Obviously, they have been pursuing the singular agenda of pushing through their quota plan. It is this callous and reprehensible attitude of the Centre that evoked severe condemnation by the Bench. Having seen through the HRD Ministry’s devious game and stopping it in its tracks, the Bench has rightly maintained that there was no need for the Centre to rush through the quota from this year having failed to frame the rules during the past 57 years. “You want to play the game and frame the rules later. What we are saying is frame the rules and play the game”, the Bench aptly said. The Bench rightly deplored the Centre’s justification for not excluding the creamy layer in the Central legislation providing for OBC quota. Mr Arjun Singh’s one-upmanship and the unanimity among all the political parties have ensured the smooth enactment of the legislation in Parliament. However, it is the apex court’s duty to test the constitutional validity of every law or amendment passed by Parliament. During its parleys with the HRD Ministry last week, the Law Ministry reportedly opposed the inclusion of the creamy layer in the ambit of the OBC legislation, citing the apex court’s nine-Bench order in the Indira Sawhney case. But then Mr Arjun Singh had his way and the result is there for all to see. The Centre would do well to do proper homework before the apex court examines the constitutional validity of the impugned legislation in August. |
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French toast SUNDAY’S presidential election in France appears to have dashed the hopes of those who wanted to see a woman as their President. Voters seemed to have little interest in gender-related issues. They have underlined their preference for a leader who can make their sagging economy grow faster to reduce the big army of the unemployed. Perhaps, that is why Conservative Nicolas Sarkozy has secured over 31 per cent votes, moving far ahead of his immediate challenger Socialist Sergolene Royal, who could win less than 26 per cent votes. Sarkozy — blunt, pro-reforms and pro-US — appears to be the clear choice of the French to succeed President Jacques Chirac. Almost all the opinion polls conducted after the results were announced showed Mr Sarkozi as the winner in the May 6 final round. The 5 per cent lead he has established over Ms Royal is very difficult to be eliminated. The 85 per cent voter turnout has broken a 42-year-old record. It is yet to be found out what really prompted the French voters to change their apathetic attitude towards politicians. Perhaps, they wanted to throw the extremist leaders out of the final round. That is why Mr Jean Marie Le Pen of the Nationalist Front, an anti-immigrant and xenophobic politician, had his voter percentage drastically reduced to 10.5 from 17 per cent in 2002. The third position went to Centrist Francois Bayrou, who got 18.55 per cent votes. Now the focus will be on how to get the maximum support from those who voted for Mr Bayrou. Some pollsters believe that 45 per cent of these votes can go to Ms Royal — whose claim to the French presidency mainly rests on her image as “the Mother of the Nation” — provided she successfully projects herself as a politician capable of doing “all things to all people”. Her campaign has to go beyond “left versus right” to make her emerge as the winner in the last round. But more than that, she has to regain the confidence she has lost, as her Sunday speech showed. |
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RBI plays safe DESPITE inflation still being on the higher side at 6.1 per cent, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday avoided tinkering with the repo, reverse repo and cash reserve ratio rates. In March when RBI Governor Venugopal Reddy had raised the repo and CRR rates, he came under heavy attack for denting growth prospects. But this time he has chosen to leave the rates untouched. This has sent a positive signal to the stock market. Any further hike in the key rates would have adversely affected the profitability of banks. Those paying house and consumer loan instalments are already facing the brunt of costlier credit. Another positive development is the RBI’s forecast of inflation being down to 4.5 per cent in the medium term. This is particularly low when compared to the RBI’s target of 5-5.5 per cent made for the 2006-07 financial year. The tightening of liquidity by the RBI is thus going to show its benign effect on prices. The artificial depression of demand by making loans expensive does not augur well for growth. No wonder the GDP growth rate projection has been scaled down to 8.5 per cent in the current fiscal. Instead of having high growth and high inflation, the RBI has chosen to push for lower growth and lower inflation. The third major announcement from the RBI is the reduction in the risk weightage from 75 per cent to 50 per cent on home loans up to Rs 20 lakh. This means easier loans will be available up to Rs 20 lakh. The RBI has been advising banks to tighten lending to commercial real estate and stock markets. Dr Reddy has even warned them of a bubble in the making in these high-growth areas. Brisk construction activity had significantly contributed to the present corporate growth, but the sector is facing the heat after the repeated hikes in interest rates. |
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Anger is never without an argument, but seldom with a good one.
— Lord Halifax |
Air attack by LTTE
The LTTE's stunning display of air power last month rattled the Sri Lankan government. President Mahinda Rajapakse raised the threat posed by the Flying Tigers in his inaugural address at the 14th SAARC summit. The LTTE air force, however symbolic, has introduced a new dimension to the ethnic conflict, which is being sought to be resolved through a military option by the government. Combined with a series of ground attacks, suicide bombings and killing of Sinhalese for which the LTTE has disowned responsibility - saying it was the Karuna group act to blame the LTTE - the message the Tigers are sending is: we're neither down, nor out in the East. The Sri Lanka government has triumphantly claimed that the LTTE has been eliminated from the East. The security establishment is on a roll after its impressive victories last year in Maavil Aaru, Muttur, Sampor and Vakkarai. Defence Secretary Gothabaya Rajapakse, who is the President's brother and a former Army officer of the same seniority as the present Army Commander, has told the international media that terrorism - diplomatese for the Tigers - will be crushed in three years. On several occasions in the past, Defence Ministers had vowed to eliminate the LTTE but instead had their noses rubbed in the ground. The LTTE has a strong sense of history and nationhood. They have not given up their quest for Eelam though at the Oslo talks they had agreed to explore the idea of federalism. Tamil leaders like R Sambandan of the Tamil National Alliance now have previously said that Prabhakaran would be willing to examine an alternative to Eelam. The Tigers are sticklers for protocol and will never abandon the idea of parity with the state. Technically a non-state actor, Prabhakaran signed the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) in 2002 with Prime Minister Ranil Wickeremesinghe, the only official document he has signed in his life, as an equal. By recognising LTTE-controlled areas in the North-East, the CFA tacitly recognised the LTTE's sovereignty as well. The discussion over sovereignty of air and sea space adjacent to their territory was left inconclusive during the talks. But the Sea Tigers were allotted sea space for the training of their navy. For all practical purposes, the LTTE runs a parallel state. One of the key ingredients of a state is its armed forces. The LTTE has developed a triple capability: conventional war in the North, guerilla operations in the East and terrorist strikes in the South, including Colombo. The LTTE has always boasted about its army, navy and air force, though the last made its debut only recently. Besides a full-fledged military organisation, there is a Foreign Affairs Division, an Arms Procurement Wing with an extensive network of shipping and numerous fund collection and diaspora branches. The Black Tigers suicide wing is an elite force which operates on land and water. Till the daily surge of suicide attacks in Iraq, the LTTE held the record with around 390 hits with a success rate of 80 per cent. Their VVIP victims include a president, a prime minister, a defence minister, sundry other ministers, a Service Chief and many others. The LTTE, in fact, invented the modern human or belt bomber and used it mainly against political and military targets. Seven years ago, the world was surprised to learn that an LTTE mini-submarine factory had been discovered and the alleged network busted by the Thailand police at the coastal resort town of Phuket. Within hours, BBC TV was on the trail and showed amazing footage of the LTTE's genius in improvisation. Spread a map and focus on the Bay of Bengal. Search for Phuket on the west-coast of Thailand and move west along that latitude towards the east-coast of Sri Lanka. You will reach Mullaithivu, the key naval base of the LTTE. With the help of two South American countries, the LTTE had created a submersible device, capable of being transported in a mother ship close to any target like Trincomalee or Colombo harbour and causing incalculable damage. The Tamil Tigers are great innovators. Their Vaan Puligal (air force) consists of six aircraft, eight airmen and four technicians. At least one of the experts is known to be a white mercenary. According to Tamil Net, the operation was planned and executed by Prabhakaran's eldest son, Charles Antony, who was trained in England in aeronautical engineering and information technology. He has been promoted and nominated commander of the Air Wing, annoying seniors like spy chief Pottu Amman. The Zlin (Z-143) which was used for the air raid is a Czech-made agricultural-use aircraft, a mid-1970s design with nearly 1000 pieces in service. Czech diplomatic sources say the LTTE could have acquired the Zlin either from Australia or Canada and carried out modifications to the undercarriage as well as the fuel tank to carry four bombs. One of the aircraft, it is certain, was procured and shipped by an Australian Tamil, T Jayakumar. Curiously, he died three days after the airstrike. The flying training was done in Malaysia. Flying Tigers achieved both the symbolism and air capability after their daring strike against Katunayake air base. Three years ago in Colombo, SLAF Commander showed me air photos of the new airstrip near Kilinochchi. He was fully conscious of the threat but did not believe the aircraft could be assembled and made airworthy. Since the war resumed last year, the air-strips and suspected location of aircraft have been pounded but apparently survived as they are believed to be concealed in tunnels. These aircraft are capable of undertaking one-way (suicide) missions reaching targets 700 km away, that is, all of Sri Lanka, up to Bangalore and international shipping within that range. The LTTE has raised the bar in this unwinnable war, which, thanks to Karuna and Kfirs, is going in favour of the government. The sting operation to procure shoulder-fired missiles by the LTTE in the US was busted there. But its links in Guam and Indonesia show that the LTTE can cast its net far and deep. The LTTE has declared that its air force will not be directed against India but only against Sri Lanka. Given its declining status as the world's most deadly guerrilla force, the air capability will certainly revive its sagging morale and image. But make no mistake, the LTTE will bounce back, staging more deadly attacks to restore the military balance. Not only do both sides believe in the principle of military ascendancy, they are also convinced that a military advantage is useful at the negotiating table. Soon after the air strike, the Sri Lanka government offered to hold talks but the LTTE said these could be only for implementing the CFA. Neither side should fool around with the constitutional package, which is expected to be ready in a few weeks. The continuing dilemma is in the incompatibility between Eelam and a unitary state. The two key issues remain the unit of devolution and whether it is a unitary or federal system. A southern consensus is imperative for making the best political offer to the Tamils. The more serious difficulty will lie in bringing the LTTE around into accepting a negotiated solution. Only India can disabuse Prabhakaran of his unachievable goal of Eelam. Meanwhile, Delhi is hoping that a Made-in-Sri Lanka solution like the one in Nepal can be
achieved.
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Franc fascination
It was nearly10 years ago that I was first seduced by the Swiss 10-franc note. While setting up the Chandigarh Architecture Museum where precious original drawings and memorabilia pertaining to the making of the city were being displayed; news came that the Swiss had brought out a 10- franc note to honour Chandigarh’s Swiss-born famous architect-planner Le Corbusier. As the then Prime Minister of India was to inaugurate the museum, work was going on 24 x 7 hours-with little time to hunt for the special series note. As luck would have it a city architect after a recent visit abroad had brought back the coveted note and gifted it for display in the museum. The wonderful gesture was splashed by the local media and became a major draw of the newly opened museum. I would often longingly gaze at it, admire its design that had a picture of Corbusier in a reflective mood on one side; and that of the Secretariat building designed by him in Chandigarh on the reverse. It was truly a collector’s item for which any chandigarh-based architect could kill… or perhaps steal! Recently, on a visit to Switzerland, I wondered if the “Corbu franc” would still be in circulation. In Zurich, as I paid a cabbie with a 50 franc note and collected back the change, I espied good ol’ Corbu, his glasses uplifted, peering down at me from a bank note, with a gaze that seemed to say, “You forgot me?” I hadn’t; and quickly pocketed the precious note in my innermost pocket. Next, while buying a croissant from a kiosk at the magnificent Hauptbahnof train station as I collected the change the “Corbu franc” was slipped into my hands again. I was so thrilled, that I couldn’t resist pointing out to the vendor that I was from this very town! As he understood little English and perhaps had more interest in bakery products than in architectural marvels, my excitement was lost on the man. But as a gesture of friendliness, he offered me another crisp croissant free! As an amazing coincidence there was a windfall of the francs. They appeared from everywhere: at the newspaper stand, paying for a wood-fired thin crust pizza or picking up a bottle of merlot wine. I had now horded more 10 franc notes than perhaps even the Banca Nazionale Svizzera advised - yet I wouldn’t part with them. Perhaps, I needed a Swiss bank account for their safe-keeping! They also became my badge of honour. I would often pull out the note to explain to the people about the city that I came from. This always brought about smiles and earned me free drinks. Chandigarh lives not only in Swiss hearts but also in their
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Changing face of Pashtun society Over the last couple of weeks fierce clashes have broken out in South Waziristan between the local Taliban and the foreign militants (mostly Uzbeks) who have been sheltering there ever since the ouster of the Taliban from Afghanistan. While both sides have faced heavy casualties, the locals (with some help from the Pakistan army) have managed to establish their control on the area and have forced the Uzbeks to leave the region. Meanwhile, the Pakistani government has been working overtime to put a spin on the recent clashes and called them a success of the policy of entering into ‘agreements’ with tribes in the region. But people familiar with the area say that the clashes do not materially alter the situation in the region. If anything, things are only going to get worse for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Unlike the Afghan Arabs who had been settled in the Pakistani tribal belt since the days of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and had meshed into the local communities through intermarriages, the Uzbeks were new entrants and not familiar with the cultural and social mores of the Pashtun tribes, something that became a source of friction between them and the locals. The local and foreign militants also differed over the tactics and broad strategy to be adopted. But the biggest problem between them was one of power and influence. In other words, the question of who calls the shots in the area is at the heart of the current conflict. These divisions within the ranks of the Taliban gave an opportunity to the Pakistani intelligence agencies to play agent provocateur in the current conflict and the ISI operatives executed a strategy of dividing the tribes to weaken them and re-establish their control over them. There are suspicions that some of the targeted killings (which proved the trigger for the clashes between the locals and foreigners) were carried out by the ISI agents and the blame for which was put on the contending parties. But the Pakistanis may be celebrating a little too soon because these clashes will not make any difference to the insurgency in Afghanistan. The local militants have declared that they will continue to fight the Americans and NATO forces in Afghanistan. They have also sworn allegiance to Mullah Omar. The divisions within the ranks of the militants will not make much difference to the growing talibanisation of the Pashtun tribal belt of Pakistan. The fact remains that the local militants and the foreigners are both inspired by radicalism and fanaticism. There internecine conflict doesn’t impact on their quest to impose Taliban-like rules over the areas of their influence. Since the Pakistan army is supporting (albeit surreptitiously) the local militants, the general belief among Pakistanis familiar with the area is that this will only make the local militants immensely powerful and at the cost of the state. As and when the locals throw the foreigners out or make them agree to follow their diktats their attention once again will turn to consolidating their hold on the tribal belt and imposing their Taliban-like rules on the local population. According to some Pakistani strategists the Pakistan army is caught between a rock and a hard place and even though the strategy of appeasement it has adopted (out of compulsion) is not ideal, it really has no other choice but to continue with it and hope for the best that it doesn’t follow its dialectic, and through some inexplicable force changes the situation in favor of the Pakistani state. While Talibanisation of the tribal belt is something that the Pakistani state can live with, the problem is that this phenomenon is now affecting the settled districts of NWFP - Dera Ismail Khan, Bannu and Tank. Even in Peshawar the influence of the Taliban is being felt. According to Pakistani journalists, the entire face of the Pashtun society is changing. The Pashtun society is becoming increasingly arab-ised. Never during the two decades and more of the afghan jihad against the Soviets or during the internecine fighting between the various Mujahedin groups was suicide bombing a factor. But today, young Pashtuns are lining up to blow themselves up. This is a massive change in the Pashtun culture. Suicide attacks are seen as a legitimate tactic in the fight against the infidels. What is more scary is that the deaths of these young men are celebrated by their families! This trend is also sweeping through rural Punjab and helping in the Talibanisation of the entire region. The long-term consequences of this trend on Pakistani society and state can be imagined. Interestingly, despite the general population in the Pashtun belt still not being too enamored of the Taliban, the people increasingly look upon them as the alternative to the rotten and unjust order that rules over them currently. The dispensation of justice and the desire for a fair order - insaf - is making people gravitate towards the Mullahs (read Taliban). The Taliban have already set up informal courts which are dispensing quick and cheap justice to people. The sense of fear and terror that has been instilled in the people is forcing even the anti-Taliban Pashtuns to fall in line. Hatred for the Musharraf regime and his pro-US policies is only adding fuel to the fire especially in the Pashtun belt. Since the extremists are seen to be taking on the hated Musharraf regime, they are attracting support. Clearly, Pakistani society and state is at a crossroads and unless the state can move hard and fast to reverse the growing trend of talibanisation, it is a matter of time before the mullahs take over the reins of power in the country. Until now however the state has tried to run with the hare and hunt with the hound, a policy which has only worked to the benefit of the Islamists and added to their influence. If the current policy continues then it will not be too long before Islamabad becomes like Kabul under the Taliban and Lahore like Kandahar. |
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Russia’s man of transition It was October 1987, three weeks before the 70th anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution. The Soviet elite had gathered in Moscow to mark the occasion. After the customarily lengthy speech by Communist Party General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev, the chairman asked whether anyone wanted to respond. Unexpectedly, Boris Yeltsin, then the Moscow party boss, went up to the rostrum. He spoke for a mere 10 minutes – and in that 10 minutes changed Russian history. Reading that speech now, it’s hard to see what the fuss was all about. Yeltsin complained that the party lacked “revolutionary spirit” and that the Soviet people suffered from “disillusionment.” The language was that of a party functionary, which is, of course, what Yeltsin was. But then, unexpectedly, he resigned. And with that extraordinarily canny decision, he won instant notoriety: Never had a communist leader set himself up as a popular alternative to the Communist Party. Within days, half a dozen versions of Yeltsin’s speech were being sold on the streets of Moscow, their authors variously speculating that Yeltsin had condemned communism, had supported democracy, had attacked the privileges of the Communist Party leadership. Every person who felt dissatisfied - and there were many - believed that Yeltsin shared his views. Two decades later, in a far more cynical Russia, this mood is hard to remember. But in the late 1980s, Yeltsin was wildly popular. When the first presidential election was held in Russia in 1991, it was inevitable that he would win. That euphoria launched an extraordinary period in Russian history, and a presidential career best described as manic-depressive. Over the next eight years, Yeltsin had enormous bursts of creative energy, alternating with long periods of illness, alcoholism and retreat. He could rouse himself to rally the country and would then vanish, leaving the government in the hands of his corrupt cronies. He was capable of speaking eloquently about freedom, yet he had an autocratic streak and brooked no criticism. He talked about economic reform but transferred his country’s industry to a small group of oligarchs. He ended the Cold War but started a new and terrible war in Chechnya. During that time, Western perceptions of Yeltsin fluctuated no less schizophrenically. In the beginning, he was considered a dangerous upstart: The elder US President George Bush openly refused to meet him. Then he stood on a tank in the center of Moscow, told cheering crowds to resist an attempted putsch – and the West turned 180 degrees, called him a hero and embraced him, sometimes literally. German Chancellor Helmut Kohl exchanged bear hugs with Yeltsin. Bill Clinton campaigned for Yeltsin’s re-election. The International Monetary Fund created new types of loans for Russia, just to be able to give Yeltsin money with no strings attached. Yet even while he and Clinton were enjoying those long, heavily televised walks through the woods, it was clear that Yeltsin was planting some of the seeds of the retrenchment we see in Russia today. During his administration, that IMF money vanished into secret bank accounts. Yeltsin first abolished the KGB, then quietly revived it to keep tabs on his enemies. Despite the rhetoric of the Yeltsin era, Russia still does not have what most of us would recognize as a free-market economy. Though the West hailed him as a democrat, Yeltsin did not leave behind anything resembling a functional democracy. And he knew, at some level, that he had failed: When he resigned from the presidency, on New Year’s Eve of the millennium – the second momentous resignation speech of his career – he wiped away a tear and apologised to the Russian people for “your dreams that never came true.” It has become fashionable to turn another 180 degrees and to condemn Yeltsin for corruption and autocracy just as thoroughly as the West once supported him. But now that he is dead, perhaps it makes more sense not to classify him as a liberal or an autocrat, as friend or foe. For in the longer historical perspective, it is clear that Yeltsin, unlike his predecessor Gorbachev, was a genuine man of transition. He knew things had to change, but he had neither the ideas nor the tools to change them. He had some of the instincts of a populist democrat but all the habits of a lifetime Communist Party apparatchik. He admired Western abundance but never understood how Western societies actually work. In truth, he belonged neither to the Soviet Union, which Gorbachev had hoped to revive, nor to the West, which Putin now rejects. Had we ever been realistic about him, we would have understood his limitations from the beginning – and appreciated his strengths. And had we not embraced him uncritically, we would have been less disappointed when things turned out differently from what we, too, had hoped. By arrangement with
LA Times-Washington Post |
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Defence Notes Western Air Command (WAC) remains the most important command of the Indian Air Force (IAF) and it has always been headed by a man who has proved himself at the time of crises. Air Marshal Padamjit Singh Ahluwalia, one of the most highly decorated and experienced fighter pilots of the country, naturally now heads the WAC, being the senior most officer after the Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major. And for his services to the force he was recently awarded the Param Vishist Seva Medal. Incidentally, he was next in line after Major to become Chief of Air Staff, during the debate over whether a chopper pilot could take over the hot seat rather than a fighter pilot, which has been the tradition in the IAF.
Defence diplomacy At the recently concluded five-day army commanders’ conference, a decision was taken on ramping up defence diplomacy by improving existing relationships with friendly countries. Stress was also laid on strengthening the officers’ “honour code.” The army has decided to send more middle-level officers for attending courses at the military academies of friendly countries, and similarly create more vacancies for the officers of these countries at our military academies.
Teachers’ manual The Chief of the Army Staff General J.J. Singh has released a unique Teachers’ Manual and Guide and the Army Pre-Schools Ready Reckoner, which would help teachers at army run schools to impart education in a more professional manner. The manual was released at a function organised by the Army Wives Welfare Association (AWWA) at the Army Public School in New Delhi. The event marked a paradigm shift in the training of teachers as well as imparting education to pre-school children through a process of standardisation, innovation and creativity. It also marks the simultaneous implementation of the curriculum in 250 schools of the army, benefiting 40,000 children and improving the professional skills of 1800 teachers.
Field Marshal’s arrears Following the Government's decision that officers holding honorary ranks of Field Marshal of the Army and Marshal of the Air Force would be entitled to a salary and emoluments package, along with several other facilities, Defence Secretary Shekhar Dutt last week handed over Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw a cheque of backwages of over Rs. 1.16 crore at the Military Hospital in Wellington, where he is undergoing treatment. The wages for Field Marshal Manekshaw were calculated from January 1, 1973, when General Manekshaw took up the Field Marshal rank. Dutt said that if at all tax has to be imposed, it will be at the minimum, and he will try to get it exempt. |
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