The abrupt departure from Washington this week of Saudi Ambassador Prince Turki al-Faisal has set off a firestorm of speculation, coming as it does on the heels of a controversial article by one of his advisers in the Washington Post.

An Associated Press report from Cairo quoted a Saudi official with ties to the Saudi Foreign Ministry as saying, "Many in the royal family concluded that if he stayed longer, things might even get worse."

The Times of London reported Prince Turki returned to Riyadh because his posting was not renewed by King Abdullah. Asked about Prince Turki's exit, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said, "I'm sure that if he is leaving that it will be - it is for his own reasons and I will leave it to the Saudi Government and the Saudi Embassy to talk about it."

The Saudi Embassy in Washington declined to comment.

In the Washington Post article, Nawaf Obaid, a Saudi government security adviser, said the kingdom would support the Sunnis in Iraq in the case of an all-out civil war with the Shias.

Mr McCormack on Wednesday said the claim made in the article "runs counter to what the stated Saudi policy is." Prince Turki has since fired Mr Obaid.

Mr Obaid wrote: "In February 2003, a month before the US-led invasion of Iraq, the Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, warned President Bush that he would be 'solving one problem and creating five more' if he removed Saddam Hussein by force. Had Bush heeded his advice, Iraq would not now be on the brink of full-blown civil war and disintegration."

He added: "One hopes he won't make the same mistake again by ignoring the counsel of Saudi Arabia's Ambassador to the United States, Prince Turki al-Faisal, who said in a speech last month that 'since America came into Iraq uninvited, it should not leave Iraq uninvited.' If it does, one of the first consequences will be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shia militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis."

Mr Obaid warned, "Saudi engagement in Iraq carries great risks - it could spark a regional war. So be it: the consequences of inaction are far worse." Prince Turki met Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Monday and Mr McCormack noted, "We had a good working relationship with him."

Prince Turki's departure after just 15 months in Washington is in sharp contrast with the tenure of his predecessor, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who served as Ambassador for over two decades and was known as the dean of Washington's diplomatic corps.

Prof Gregory Gause, who teaches politics of the Arabian Peninsula at the University of Vermont, told The Tribune there has been some speculation that there might be "policy tensions" between Prince Turki and Prince Bandar. The latter shares a warm relationship with the Bush family and was famously nicknamed "Bandar Bush" by President George W. Bush's mother, Barbara.

It is widely speculated that Prince Bandar, who as head of the new Saudi National Security Council, might be cutting the Saudi Embassy out of the loop as he pursues his own contacts with Washington.

"Right now, everything on this issue is simply speculation," Professor Gause noted. "The published newspaper speculation is that Prince Turki is interested in becoming foreign minister, as it appears his brother, the current foreign minister, might be resigning soon for health reasons," he said, adding, this was not a cover for something else, Prince Saud al-Faisal "really is in quite bad health."

"To improve his chances for that spot, the thinking goes, he has to be in Riyadh to lobby," Professor Gause said. Prince Turki led the Saudi external intelligence service for 24 years until August 2001, when he resigned from the post.

Riyadh is reportedly concerned about a rethink in Washington of its Iraq policy. As Democrats prepare to take control of both chambers of the US Congress in January the calls to withdraw troops from Iraq have grown deafening. The Saudis feel their interests have not been taken into consideration.

At a meeting with King Abdullah in Riyadh recently Vice-President Dick Cheney was informed that Saudi Arabia would be prepared to support the Sunni insurgency against the Shia militias in Iraq, which are backed by Iran.

Professor Gause said he didn't think Prince Turki's departure had anything to do with US-Saudi relations, which, he contended, are not that bad.

"Sure, there are tensions over Iraq, but nothing like the tensions right after 9/11" when most of the hijackers who piloted commercial planes into sites in the US were young Saudi men, he said.

Prince Turki did not have the time to develop the kinds of links in Washington that Prince Bandar had. "But he was much better than Bandar (at least in the last decade or so of Bandar's tenure) at public diplomacy - getting out of Washington to talk to groups, dealing with the media, that kind of thing," said Professor Gause, adding, "I thought Turki was doing a pretty good job."

Baghdad, December 14
Iraqi leaders discussed the latest in a long line of new security plans for Baghdad yesterday as bombs and shootings killed 37 people across the country in the run-up to national unity talks.

Multiple car bombs in Shia districts and a truck bomb in the north targeting Iraqi soldiers guarding oil pipelines claimed 20 lives alone during another violence-torn day.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki told a visiting delegation of US Congressmen led by New Mexico Senator John McCain that his government had a new security plan to protect the capital and the rest of the country.

The government requires “more arms for the Iraqi army, more powers and training in order to be capable of handling security missions all over the country,” he told the delegation, his office said.

Maliki’s National Security Advisor Muwaffaq al-Rubaie told journalists the new plan involved a swifter transition from US troops to Iraqi forces. US forces would move to the outskirts of the cities to combat al-Qaida insurgents, while the Iraqis would handle the raging sectarian conflict tearing Baghdad apart. “The coalition forces should not get involved in sectarian violence-this is a job for the Iraqi security forces to do,” he said. — AFP

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