S preoccupation with a civilian nuclear deal with India has detracted from Washington's effort to improve ties between India and Pakistan, according to a South Asia analyst in Washington.
Mr Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, says if India and Pakistan come to blows, Washington's ties to one or both of the antagonists could deteriorate, and violence by extremists could increase significantly in India, Afghanistan and Pakistan. "Washington must work tirelessly to improve ties between India and Pakistan. Instead, this item has dropped off the Bush administration's agenda as it focuses on a nuclear cooperation deal with India," he said.
The House of Representatives has approved a Bill that seeks to facilitate nuclear cooperation between the USA and India. The Senate has yet to take up the Bill for debate and a vote. No date has been set for this action.
As the western Indian city of Malegaon recovers from deadly bombings, Mr Krepon says a new crisis like the one that was sparked by the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament on December 13, 2001, may not end peacefully.
Noting India's "uncommon restraint" in the face of grave provocations, including the recent train blasts in Mumbai, Mr Krepon said many in Pakistan still do not understand the depth of India's anger following the storming of the Parliament and may assume that India will forever be a "soft" state in the face of provocation. If India acts the next time it is attacked it will surprise many, he predicted.
Mr Krepon and Polly Nayak have co-authored a case study of the 10-month "Twin Peaks" crisis in 2001. The first peak, immediately after the attack on Parliament, occurred in the December 2001-January 2002 timeframe. The second peak, in May-June 2002, followed another high-profile attack by militants, this time near the town of Kaluchak in Jammu.
The report is based on interviews with US crisis managers in Washington, New Delhi and Islamabad, including former Secretary of State Colin Powell and his deputy, Mr Richard Armitage.
Ms Nayak noted Mr Armitage pointed out that American policy-makers only handle one crisis at a time. "At the time terrorists attacked the Indian Parliament on December 13, 2001, the USA was preoccupied with the war in Afghanistan. If the USA had been less preoccupied would it have helped to dissuade India from mobilising its forces along the border with Pakistan," Ms Nayak wondered. Currently an independent consultant, Ms Nayak served as the US intelligence community's senior expert and manager on South Asia from 1995-2001.
"We're more effective at crisis management if the US is not involved on a day-to-day basis in the
region," said Mr Krepon. "Every crisis in South Asia is unique... every US crisis management effort has to be improvisational."
Mindful of India's aversion to US mediation between India and Pakistan, Mr Krepon told The Tribune Washington should instead work "quietly and doggedly" with the neighbours.
A future crisis between India and Pakistan could end up fraying US relations with both countries and could open the prospect of terrorism, he said. Noting that when two antagonists have nuclear weapons they are going to try and avoid a nuclear war, Mr Krepon added, "but that understanding creates a space to make mischief at lower levels."
Both Mr Krepon and Ms Nayak noted India and Pakistan had taken very positive steps to try and turn the corner. But most of the people they interviewed came to the conclusion that India and Pakistan were "not yet out of the woods"; they widely agreed that conditions for another significant crisis continue to exist in the region.
The study notes that among the key lessons drawn by US officials from the Twin Peaks crisis are the need for continuous, high-level US engagement in South Asia; the importance of improving US ties with both India and Pakistan; and the value of engaging other key countries in crisis management.
"Ad hoc solutions are inevitable and may sometimes be desirable - but there is no substitute for an extended period of improved relations between Pakistan and India," the study says.
