Human statue garners votes for BSP
Phagwara May 2
In the heat of electioneering in the current Lok Sabha poll, everybody is running, except one. He stands still to campaign! Amid the myriad modes of campaigning like nukkad meetings, padyatras, cycles, scooters, cars, public rallies, rath yatras and road shows, the 48-year-old Harmesh Lal of Hardaspur village falling in the Phagwara Assembly segment of the Phillaur reserved Parliamentary constituency, has adopted a unique way of campaigning for the Bahujan Samaj Party.

The shop of this woman tailor in Kolkata seems to have become a favourite spot for pasting parties’ posters. — PTI Former Prime Minister and Janata Dal (Secular) President HD Deve Gowda sports a traditional Naga attire during a campaign rally at Dimapur, Nagaland, on Sunday. — PTI In video (28k, 56k)

Human statue garners votes for BSP
J. S. Gandham

Phagwara May 2
In the heat of electioneering in the current Lok Sabha poll, everybody is running, except one. He stands still to campaign! Amid the myriad modes of campaigning like nukkad meetings, padyatras, cycles, scooters, cars, public rallies, rath yatras and road shows, the 48-year-old Harmesh Lal of Hardaspur village falling in the Phagwara Assembly segment of the Phillaur reserved Parliamentary constituency, has adopted a unique way of campaigning for the Bahujan Samaj Party. He stands still like a statue for three to four hours at a stretch daily on crowded crossings, mostly on National Highway No 1 (GT road), Gol Chowk, Sugar Mill chowk and Hoshiarpur road chowk.

Attired in the party’s blue dress, including the BSP cap and cloak with the party symbol elephant painted on them, holding aloft the BSP flag tied to a 10-foot long bamboo stick, with goggles on eyes and a whistle in lips, perched atop the nearly 8-feet high-bricked structure on the divider of the GT road near Gol chowk, Mr Harmesh Lal becomes the cynosure of all eyes, albeit also a distraction for the vehicle drivers, who curious to have a fleeting look at him, might well invite the risk of an accident! To cap it all, he keeps blowing a whistle to arrest the attention of the “can’t care” type of passers-by. A kind of bold whistle-blower against the opponents of the BSP, indeed!

When this correspondent spotted him today at his favourite vintage spot, the queries had to be shouted as Harmesh Lal stood high above the din of traffic on the Phagwara-Ludhiana stretch of the GT road. He said his sole love was for the BSP. “I have been canvassing for the party in every election ever since it was founded by Kanshi Ram in 1984,” he informs. “Now I do it for Mayawati, President of the BSP and party candidate from Phillaur Pawan Kumar Tinu,” he continues.

When asked as to why he takes such a long a pole and stands high up, the middle-aged poor frail villager but untiring BSP lover, braving the summer sun, says it signifies the soaring height of the BSP set to capture power and keep its flag fluttering up in the skies.

“BSP” factor dominant

New Delhi, May 2
The(“BSP” (“Bijli”, “Sadak”, “Pani”,) factor weighs heavily in the country’s biggest Lok Sabha constituency of Outer Delhi where Labour Minister Sahib Singh Verma takes on Congress leader Sajjan Kumar who makes a comeback in the electoral fray after being denied the ticket in the last two elections.

The constituency is peppered with unauthorised colonies and its 34 lakh voters are dominated by migrant workers and Jats who have the potential to make or mar the electoral fate of the two candidates.

The return of Sajjan Kumar after a bout of political wilderness triggered by allegations about his role in the 1984 anti-Sikh riots has ensured that Mr Verma has a tough contest on hand, though BJP leaders claim the presence of a BSP candidate in the fray will split the non-NDA votes and thus make Mr Verma’s task easy.

Mr Kumar had defeated Mr Verma in the 1991 Lok Sabha poll but in the 1996 elections, he lost to the BJP, which retained the seat in the 1998 and 1999 elections.

According to Mr Paramjit Singh, a voter in Khyala village in the Vishnu Garden Assembly segment, an area dominated by the Sikh community, Mr Verma has been raking up the 1984 riots and trying to exploit the sentiments of the Sikh community. But Mr Kumar hits back accusing Mr Verma of not working for the welfare of the people in rural areas both as the Chief Minister and later as the Union Labour Minister.

With the ground water level going down and long hours of power cuts adding to the woes of the electorate, already bearing the brunt of bad roads, it is accusations galore between BJP and Congress leaders who accuse each other’s governments for the “betrayal” in not regularising hundreds of unauthorised colonies.

The caste arithmetic of Outer Delhi shows that Jats account for 22 per cent, Scheduled Castes 15 per cent, Brahmins 10 per cent, Yadavs 8 per cent, Banias 6 per cent, Thakurs and Gujjars 4 per cent each and the rest others, including Muslims.

Though both Mr Verma and Mr Kumar belong to the Jat community, neither of them can take it for granted that their castemen will back them solidly and what is giving them sleepless nights is the emergence of “Poorvanchal” vote-bank (people from Bihar and eastern UP) and a sharp rise in the number of Brahmin and Yadav voters.

The migrant voters residing in unauthorised colonies dotting the constituency and the re-settlement colonies, considered as a traditional Congress vote-bank, are likely to tilt the balance for or against any candidate.

While canvassing, BJP candidate Verma reminds voters that Kumar’s brother, Ramesh Kumar, had lost the last Assembly elections in Sahibabad Daultapur. The political message that he actually wants to convey is that the Congress nominee has lost his moorings in the constituency.

Verma’s supporters say Kumar is worried because of the presence of BSP candidate Bharat Bhushan Nagar, who could dent the non-NDA vote-bank and denial of the ticket to a hopeful Mukesh Sharma, a three-time Congress MLA from Hastsal, who might not work for Kumar with full zeal. The BSP’s vote share in this part of the city is rising and there are 25 other candidates too.

Though Mr Verma had defeated his nearest Congress rival by 2.5 lakh votes last time, it might not be a cakewalk for him this time as a large number of people from relocated jhuggi clusters, traditionally a Congress stronghold, have shifted to Outer Delhi. — PTI

BSP joins SAD, Cong seesaw
Chitleen K Sethi
Tribune News Service

Ropar, May 2
The Ropar Lok Sabha seat has traditionally seen a seesaw contest between the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Congress. However, over the years, the voting population has not just shown a clear preference for the SAD and its various factions but also there has been a steady increase in the anti-Congress votes here.

The Congress has also not been able to benefit much from the incessant factionalism in the SAD except perhaps in the 1999 elections, when Shamsher Singh Dullo of the Congress won the Ropar seat, defeating SAD candidate Satwinder Kaur by 77,341 votes. A big chunk of 1,18,353 votes was bagged by Sarab Hind Shiromani Akali Dal (SHSAD) candidate Balbir Kaur. In other words, Dullo got 45.91 per cent of the total polled votes while both the factions of Akalis together got 51.66 percent votes.

With the SHSAD and SAD together again, this time things could become difficult for Dullo, who is the Congress repeat candidate here.

However, any unity that SAD candidate Sukhdev Singh Libra can claim advantage of will be offset by the presence of a candidate of Simranjit Singh Mann’s Akali Dal (Amritsar), Bhag Singh Surtapuri, district president of the party and Ravi Inder Singh-supported Independent candidate Surjan Singh Rahi. Although in no position to gain majority votes here, these two are expected to eat into Sukhdev Singh Libra’s vote bank.

The one party that has been a major gainer over the years here is the BSP. The percentage of votes the BSP candidates have got has increased from a mere 6.7 per cent in 1989 to 18.64 per cent in 1992 and to a whopping 41.68 per cent in 1998.

The BSP candidate this time is Maan Singh Manhera whose driving force remains his performance in the 1998 elections. His performance during the Assembly elections 2002, when he stood for the MLA seat from Amloh was, however, not so encouraging when he got only 11.15 per cent of the votes. This could also have a bearing on his performance this time. In direct confrontation are Shamsher Singh Dullo of the Congress and Sukhdev Singh Libra of the SAD, the outgoing Rajya Sabha MP. This is not the first time that the two candidates, both from Khanna, are face to face in a political battle. Mr Libra had in 1985, defeated Mr Dullo during the Legislative Assembly elections. Mr Dullo, on the other hand, has been an MLA for two terms from 1980 to 85 and 1992 to 97. 

Majority booths above 13,000 ft here
Aditi Tandon
Tribune News Service

Ladakh (Leh), May 2
The Ladakh parliamentary constituency stands in sharp contrast to all others in India. Located at a staggering height of 11,800 feet above the sea level, and dotted with villages across an equally staggering area of over 65,000 square km in Leh and Kargil districts, Ladakh poses a potential challenge to the authorities responsible for the conduct of elections. In that sense, elections in this land of the Lamas is more a test of election-preparedness than a race for political power.

Due to the vastness of the area and difficulty of terrain, the logistics involved in elections to the lone parliamentary seat in Ladakh are bound to be amazing. In some areas that remain inaccessible throughout the year, the election authorities have approached the Indian Air Force, which will supply helicopters to ferry poll material to booths located here. But this is not the only impediment insofar as the May 10 poll in Ladakh is concerned.

Picture these: no segment, block or subdivision in this constituency lies below an altitude of 9,000 feet; most villages are situated at an elevation between 12,000 and 15,000 feet; in Leh alone, over one lakh people inhabit distant pockets spread over 45,110 sq km; in many cases polling booths have been set up in remote areas to accommodate as low as 10 voters.

Given such conditions, the authorities had kickstarted poll preparations as early as March this year. They are still under way, even as the date of polling nears. As of now, Ladakh boasts of the highest polling station in India. Called Fastan, it is located 17,000 feet high in the Nubra Assembly segment of Leh district which comprises six blocks and three subdivisions for elections to the 14th Lok Sabha. The blocks include Leh, Kharu, Nyoma, Duruk, Nobra and Khaltsi, while the subdivisions are Khaltsi, Nyoma and Nubra.

Leh also houses the maximum number of high-altitude polling booths in the Ladakh parliamentary constituency. All polling booths in Nyoma subdivision of Leh are at an altitude exceeding 13,000 feet. Six booths in the Nubra Assembly segment are situated at a height ranging between 4,000 feet and 17,000 feet, while 15 booths in the Leh Assembly segment rest at an average altitude of 14,000 feet. Many booths like Shun, Shaday, Stok in the Zanskar segment and Rangdom, Tashi Stomngday and Henaskot in the Kargil segment are also located above 13,000 feet. Kargil district has Zanskar and Kargil segments.

An analysis of poll preparation shows that the authorities have taken care to ensure that villagers have to walk minimum possible distances to vote. Despite the setting up of auxiliary booths in some areas, the villagers will have to sometimes travel 12 km to reach the nearest polling booth. Khaltsi subdivision in Leh is most notorious with respect to distances. Notwithstanding the opening of two auxiliary booths at Sumdo and Umlung villages here, the voters will have to walk 7 km and 12 km, respectively. Voter strength in these booths is worth mentioning — a dismal 20 and 16, respectively.

Interestingly, Leh also has the lowest number of registered voters for a particular polling station in India. Thukjey Gonpa booth in the segment has just seven voters. The second lowest voter registration is 10 at the Ralakung booth in the Zanskar segment of Kargil.

Even as harsh conditions prevail, it is to be seen how Ladakh’s 1,73,189 voters brave them to elect their representative in the May 10 poll. 

Sonepat: INLD goes all out to humble BJP
Yoginder Gupta
Tribune News Service

Sonepat, May 2
INLD candidate Krishna Malik struggling hard to humble the BJP member of the dissolved Lok Sabha, Mr Kishan Singh Sangwan. Being the wife of MR M.S. Malik, DGP (on leave), has made the contest in Sonepat keen.

Though confident of his victory, Mr Sangwan is apprehensive that the polling may not be fair and the ruling party may try to rig it, particularly in the Bahadurgarh Assembly setment. The INLD MLA from here, Mr Nafe Singh Rathee, has a reputation of being a “strong” man. He was convicted in a murder case by the trial court before the 2000 Assembly elections. The Punjab and Haryana High Court later acquitted him.

His apprehensions are shared by the Haryana Vikas Party (HVP) and the Congress. However, the ruling party describes their allegations and apprehensions as “a figment of the imagination.”

Twenty candidates are in the field but the main fight seems to be among Mr Sangwan, Mrs Malik and Mr Dharam Pal Malik of the Congress. Mr Jangbir Singh Malik of the HVP is technically not the party candidate as he has not been allotted its symbol of “boy and girl”. The General Secretary of the HVP, Mr Rajiv Jain, who is Jangbir’s poll manager, alleges that the denial of the symbol is deliberate because the ruling party was afraid that he (Jangbir) might split the votes of the Malik Jats.

The authorities, however, deny it. They say Jangbir failed to furnish the authorisation letter from the party in time. Therefore, he had to be allotted a symbol reserved for Independent candidates Jangbir is now contesting on the symbol of “lock and key”. HVP supporters are working overtime to popularise the new symbol.

Interestingly, all main candidates, including Mr Shugan Chand Gupta of the BSP, belong to the Gohana segment of the Sonepat Parliamentary constituency.

Mr Dharam Pal, who was highly under-rated before the Congress announced his candidature, has made quick gains and is now running for the first three positions. The more he would gain, the more he would damage the BJP nominee. But Mr Sangwan is depending upon the animosity he had to face from Mr Chautala during the past four years and the liberal use of the MP Local Area Development Funds to maintain the lead he has over his rivals till May 10.

The INLD nominee has nothing personally against her. However, she has to face a strong anti-incumbency factor against her party’s government. Whatever vote she is getting outside the traditional vote-bank of the INLD is due to the personal influence and friendships of her husband. She is quite comfortable in the Julana constituency of her in-laws.

Her opponents allege that the rural youth is being allured by the promise of recruitment in the police force. But they also say that the promise is not cutting much ice because the people understand that in the current administrative and police set up in the state, a DGP does not have much say in the police recruitment. All powers are more or less concentrated in the hands of the political leadership.

Mr Sangwan’s case seems to be that of “votes galore, but workers a few”.Since the BJP has never been strong in the rural areas of Sonepat, Mr Sangwan is facing a shortage of dedicated workers. He has a large number of sympathisers, but they do not want to openly identified with him because of the fear of the powers that be.

In 1999, he won the seat by a margin of over 2.5 lakh votes. At that time the BJP and the INLD, which traditionally has a strong base in the countryside, contested the elections in alliance.

Almost one-third of the over 12 lakh electorate in Sonepat are Jats. Even among them the largest chunk belongs to the Malik gotra, followed by the Dahiya gotra. The BJP hopes that the Maliks would be divided among the three candidates of their gotra, with a sizeable chunk going for its candidate also because of the anti-incumbency factor.

Sonepat figures on the top of the list of the seats the BJP hopes to win in Haryana.

Campaign spirit missing 
Kulwinder Sandhu
Tribune News Service

Karnal, May 2
With a little over a week left for the polling, the heat of electioneering is missing in this constituency where the Union Minister of State for Home Affairs, Mr I.D. Swami (BJP), the Transport Minister of Haryana, Mr Ashok Arora (INLD), and a former MP, Dr Arvind Sharma (Congress), are pitted against one another in a stiff contest.

The BJP candidate is in the last leg of his third round of campaigning but the pomp and show of electioneering is missing. The reason seems to be the strict guidelines of the Election Commission and lack of interest shown by the electorate.

Posters, banners and party flags have by and large disappeared from the streets following notices issued by the district administration.

The INLD and Congress candidates have not yet covered the whole constituency comprising Karnal and Panipat districts due to the delay in the allotment of ticket.

Dr Sharma’s campaign is picking up and he has managed to secure the support of two main factions of the Congress Mr Birendra Singh and Mr Bhajan Lal. Loyalists of Mr Bhupendra Singh Hooda and Mr Shamsher Singh Surjewala are still hesitant to join his campaign.

Last week, some of his supporters clashed with local traders who later protested openly against him. The district administration has also warned him not to bring supporters from outside the constituency.

The rebel candidate, Mr Kuldip Sharma, having been denied ticket, is making efforts to put a dent in the traditional vote bank of the party by telling the electorate that he was a local candidate.

Mr Ashok Arora is becoming a victim of his own party workers who have migrated in large numbers to the Kurukshetra constituency from where Mr Abhay Chautala is contesting. He leaves for Kurukshetra along with his supporters every evening and then comes back in the morning. Sources close to Mr Arora says that he was not serious in contesting. He was forced by INLD chief Om Prakash Chautala to contest so as to draw Punjabi voters.

A contest between a guru and chela
Rajeev Sharma
Tribune News Service

Alwar (Rajasthan), May 2
This Lok Sabha constituency is testimony to the adage: nothing is impossible in politics. People here are witness to an interesting electoral clash between a guru and his chela (disciple). Here the Congress and BJP candidates are not spewing venom against each other. Instead, they are maintaining decorum. The constituency also offers a unique spectacle of the chela touching the feet of the guru whenever the two come face to face during their respective padyatras.

The guru is the BJP’s candidate, Mahant Chand Nath Yogi, who also happens to be the chief priest of a 1,300-year-old religious sect revered by the Yadavs. Yogi is the Mathadheesh of Shri Baba Mast Nath Math, an eighth century sect headquartered in Asthal Bohar, Rohtak (Haryana).

The math does not refrain from electoral politics. On the contrary, its chief priests have had a vibrant political life. Yogi’s guru and the math’s seventh successor, the late Mahant Shreyonath Yogi, was Haryana’s Health Minister.

The chela in this contest is Dr Karan Singh Yadav, a two-term MLA from Behror. He has been Suprintendent of Jaipur’s Swai Man Singh Hospital. Dr Yadav is a heart specialist but his heart beats for politics which he joined in 1998.

Both guru and chela are contesting their first Lok Sabha election. Interestingly, both have been beneficiaries of political compulsions of their respective parties who could not repeat their 1999 election candidates from this seat.

The BJP could not field its 13th Lok Sabha member from this seat, Dr Jaswant Singh Yadav, because of reports of his alleged involvement in a rape case. He had defeated former Maharani of Alwar Mahendra Kumari (Congress), by more than 57,000 votes. Though obviously miffed with the denial of ticket, Dr Jaswant Singh Yadav is keeping a low profile and doing nothing to harm the interests of Mahant Chand Nath.

Maharani Mahendra Kumari was responsible for the BJP’s maiden victory from here in the 1991 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress wanted to field her MLA son Bhanwar Jitendra Singh from here, but later decided on Dr Karan Singh.

The people of Alwar are lucky to have two major candidates who are educated and have a clean image. Yogi (the guru) is a Hindi honours graduate from Hindu College, Delhi. Though saints have no caste, he belongs to the Yadav caste.

In this constituency of 17.38 lakh electorate, the Yadavs hold the key with their sizeable number (2.5 lakh). There are 2 lakh Brahmins and as many Scheduled Castes. Jats, Meos, Malis, Vaishyas and Meenas are also in large numbers with each of these castes having 1 lakh to 1.25 lakh voters here. The Rajputs are comparatively less here, numbering just about 80,000.

Commoners and political pundits here feel alike: in this contest the guru has a slight edge. This is despite the fact that the chela has won Assembly elections twice while the guru has lost the only election he contested as an Independent from Narnaul by a narrow margin of 700.

This Yadav-dominated sect has so far six times elected members from this community which reposes faith in Mahant Chand Nath Yogi.

The guru’s USP (unique selling proposition) is that wherever he goes for canvassing, he promises to people to spread the good work of Shri Baba Mast Nath Math in Alwar which runs more than 150 medical and educational institutions in Haryana and other parts of the country. And the people know that this is one election promise which is not fake.The electoral battle here is a straight fight between the BJP and Congress. Other candidates do not matter. They would simply be also-rans. 

Karnataka post-poll analysis
When biggest is not best
Sridhar K Chari
Tribune News Service

Bangalore, May 2
The distinct possibility of a hung Assembly in Karnataka is leading to a battle of competing legitimacies. Political legitimacy to form a government after an election is almost always with the single largest party. Here, however, the party likely to emerge with the lowest tally in the Assembly poll, the H.D. Deve Gowda-led JD (S), is staking a claim for that legitimacy.

Most exit polls after the first phase on April 20 predicted that the S.M. Krishna-led Congress would make it back to the gaddi, though losing several seats. But exit polls after the second phase are giving no such clear indications, with the NDTV-Indian Express poll even saying it is “too close to call.” Some polls in the first phase had even indicated the possibility of a BJP government, with their tally getting close to the 113 required out of the 224-strong Assembly.

One channel for speculation is who Mr Deve Gowda might decide to support — the BJP or the Congress, if either is just short. Mr Gowda’s rivalry with the Karnataka Congress is long-standing (it is a little better with Mrs Sonia Gandhi), and a bitter battle, both from the microphones, and out on the streets with stones and acid bottles, has been fought between Congress and JD (S) supporters.

Mr Gowda has not spared the BJP though, slamming its “fascist” and “pro-rich and upper middle class” policies often enough.

JD (S) leaders on their part continue to maintain the standard rhetoric of all parties — the “we’ll get a comfortable majority, there won’t be a hung Assembly” line. JD (S) sources told The Tribune that internal ‘best-case’ assessments indicate a scenario of around 60 seats, above the 25-35 that exit polls predicted. (The Congress is expected to get between 110 to 120, down from 1999’s 132, and the BJP JD (U) alliance 60 to 70, which is not much of an improvement over 1999’s 63.)

The moot question is, if the Congress’s tally really drops well below majority — who will gain, the BJP or the JD (S)? The BJP believes that there cannot be an extreme situation, which defies “political logic” in their words, where the BJP does dramatically in the LS (projected to win 19-20 seats out of 28, up from the 7 in 1999), and not make any gains at all in the Assembly. Even for a state known for “split-voting,” that is too much, is the feeling.

The JD (S) is looking at how it might end up forming a government. Says a JD (S) source: “It does look like it might be hung. In which case, both the Congress and the BJP have been rejected. How can they expect to form the government? They’ll have no moral right.” If the JD (S) really gets in the region of 60 seats, it would want to hold out for nothing less than forming the government, with either Congress or BJP support. The BJP just might offer such support, on the grounds that the Lok Sabha vote gives it a certain measure of legitimacy as well. For the JD (S), the claim for moral authority is the legitimacy of being “the only alternative.” Just how the legitimacy is going to be apportioned, only the results will tell.

Caste dominant factor in Kangra
Pratibha Chauhan
Tribune News Service

Dharamsala, May 2
Caste has become the major factor in the Kangra Lok Sabha constituency, which is dominated by other backward classes (OBC), who constitute 26 per cent of the electorate.

The BJP finds itself on the wrong side of the caste divide because this factor is going against the party. The Congress candidate who belongs to this community is raking up this issue much to the chagrin of BJP candidate Shanta Kumar, who has accused the Congress of dividing the electorate along caste lines.

Caste has always been a dominant factor in Kangra politics, where political parties are forced to take caste equations into consideration while selecting their candidates. It is with this factor in mind that the Congress fielded Mr Chander Kumar, Forest Minister in the Virbhadra Government.

The highest concentration of OBCs is in the assembly segments of Kangra (40,000), Nagrota (35,600), Jwali (21,000), Shahpur (18,200) and close to 15,000 each in Guler, Sulah and Dharamsala.

Apart from the OBC votebank, The Rajputs constitute almost 24 per cent of the electorate with their number in Kangra and Chamba districts being over 2.25 lakh. The other castes who constitute a major votebank include the Scheduled Caste, who are close to 1.75 lakh, followed by Brahmins whose number is about 1.40 lakh.

Mr Shanta Kumar has always been getting a major chunk of the Brahmin votes as he is considered the tallest leader from the community. Moreover after the demise of Congress leader and former minister from Baijnath Sant Ram, there has virtually been a vacuum of Brahmin leadership in the Congress. The Brahmins constitute about 11 per cent of the total electorate.

The Congress has been reminding the electorate that it was the state government headed by Mr Shanta Kumar, who had approached the Supreme Court against the recommendations of the Mandal Commission. The Congress claims that it was the Virbhadra regime which constituted the Minorities Commission on the recommendation of which the reservation for the community was raised from 10 to 15 and then to 18 per cent.

What is causing anxiety to the BJP is the fact that the Rajputs are more inclined towards former Chief Minister, P.K. Dhumal, an arch rival of Mr Shanta Kumar. In fact Rajput leaders in the BJP like Kanwar Durga Chand, Mr Jagdev Chand Thakur and Mr Daulat Ram Chauhan had serious differences with Mr Shanta Kumar. With Mr Dhumal only making an occasional trip to Kangra for campaigning and his loyalists too not taking a keen interest, the BJP is not much hopeful of getting big Rajput support.

On the other hand, the Rajputs not just in Kangra but all over Himachal, regard Mr Virbhadra Singh as their most respected leader. Mr Chander Kumar being a confidant of the Chief Minister, Mr Virbhadra Singh has been extensively campaigning for him.

There is a very high concentration of Rajput votes in the Nurpur (34,000), Jwali (20,000), Sulah (18,000), Thural (17,000) Guler (16,000) and Shahpur (13,000).

Key Constituency: Shimla
Cong enjoys the edge as BJP makes apple an issue
Rakesh Lohumi
Tribune News Service

Kotkhai (Shimla), May 2
In a bid to make inroads into this impregnable Congress bastion, better known for its delicious apples, the BJP is making the neglect of fruit growers by the Virbhadra Singh Government an issue.

The party roped in former bureaucrat, H.N.Kashyap ,to challenge Dr Dhani Ram Shandil, an ex- Army officer who has entered the fray as the Congress candidate this time. It faces a daunting task as taking on Mr Virbhadra Singh, Chief Minister, on its home turf takes some doing. Shimla is also the home district of Mrs Vidya Stokes, the PCC Chief, who has also been campaigning for the party candidate. The Congress has maintained is stranglehold over the area as evident from the fact that it lost the seat only twice since 1952 when the first Lok Sabha poll was held. In 1977 it was swept out by the Janata wave while in 1999 it was the Kargil wave coupled with the BJP-HVC alliance, which ensured the defeat of the party.

With both the Congress and the BJP playing the regional card the state had been over the years divided into upper and lower hills. The apple belt comprising the higher hills or the old Himachal areas came to be identified with the ruling Congress, while the BJP emerged as the champion of the lower hills or the merged areas, however, in the process it also acquired the anti-apple growers tag. The party made a conscious effort to shed its anti-apple growers image while it was in power. It not only gave representation to the area in the ministry by inducting Mr Narinder Bragta but also gave him the Horticulture portfolio. The Dhumal government continued with the support price for apples and also started work on two fruit-based wineries to ensure remunerative returns to growers.

However, all this did not pay any dividends to the party in the Assembly poll. The anti-establishment sentiment against the Dhumal government was so strong that the BJP was totally wiped out from not only Shimla district but the entire apple belt in the state. In fact, it was relegated to the third place in four out of the eight Assembly constituencies in the district.

Now that the party is not in power in the state it is trying to project itself as the real benefactor of the fruit growers and accusing the Congress of ignoring them. Mr Suresh Bhardwaj, the state BJP chief, who is spearheading the party’s campaign along with Mr Bragta in the sprawling constituency, is devoting much time to the issues like non-payment of arrears of apple growers whose fruit was procured under the market intervention scheme last year and accusing the Congress of scuttling the wineries project. To cap it all Mr Kashyap who has served as Additional District Magistrate is claiming that he is well aware of the problems of growers and promising to expand and improve the road network in the interior areas and take other steps to strengthen the marketing infrastructure.

Despite its good showing in the Assembly poll the Congress is not taking any chances and it has further tried to consolidate its position by inducting three Independent legislators, Mr Rakesh Verma, Mr Subhash Manglait and Mr Sohan Lal as associate members of the party and admitting Mr Lakhwinder Rana, a prominent BJP leader from Nalagarh , and Karnesh Jung, who was expelled for contesting against the official candidate, into the party. Mr Virbhadra Singh has already completed a round of the constituency and Mrs Vidya Stokes has also addressed a series of election meetings.

The BJP has also readmitted Mr Jagat Singh Negi, who contested the last assembly poll as a rebel candidate, and some other estranged leaders. The merger of the Him Loktantrik Morcha into the party has paved the way for the entry of leaders like Ms Vinod Chandel who commands influence in the Doon area. However, the entry of Mr Mohinder Sofat, the most significant leader who spearheaded the dissident movement in the garb of “Mittar Milan”, is still hanging fire because of opposition from the rival party faction.

The BJP has, no doubt, consolidated its base in Solan district and gained ground in some pockets of Shimla and Sirmaur districts but the gap is too large for it to cover up where the electorate has been traditionally supporting the Congress. Moreover, the Congress has still four years to go in office and this could have a decisive influence on the minds of the voters.

Constituency Profile: Anantnag
Clash of mini-titans here
Ehsan Fazili
Tribune News Service

Anantnag, May 2
It is going to be a clash of mini-titans in this constituency which will be going to the polls in the third phase on May 5. The constituency has been represented by prominent leaders and three former Union Ministers in the past. They included the Congress leader and Railway Minister, Mohammad Shafi Qureshi.

Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, former Union Tourism Minister and Union Home Minister, was elected from this constituency in 1998.

Another former Union Minister of State for Home, Mohammad Maqbool Dar, was elected from here in 1996.

In the last nine Lok Sabha elections, the constituency was represented five times by the National Conference, thrice by the Congress and once by the Janata Dal.

It would be three-corner contests in this constituency comprising 16 Assembly segments 10 in Anantnag district, and six in Pulwama district. Fourteen candidates are in the fray. The main contest is between the candidates of the PDP, Ms Mehbooba Mufti, Naional Conference candidate, Mehboob Beigh and CPM candidate Mohammad Yusuf Tarigami. Mr Dar is contesting as an independent this time. Other contestants are Sofi Yusuf (BJP), Hamidullah Wani: (All-India Forward Block), Sanjay Saraf (Lok Jana Shakti), Ghulam Mohammad Tantray (Samata Party), Mohammad Yusuf Qureshi (Rashtriya Lok Dal), and five Independents.

In the last two Lok Sabha elections, the contest between senior leaders was regarded as the clash of titans. This time, however, it is between Ms Mufti and Dr Beigh.

Ms Mufti, Dr Beigh and Mr M.Y. Tarigani are MLAs from Anantnag district. While Ms Mufti represents Pahalgam, Dr Beigh and Mr Tarigami represent the Anantnag and Kulgam, constituencies, respectively.

Of the 16 Assembly segments, 10 are represented by the PDP, two each by its allies the Congress and the CPM, and two by the National Conference. The electorate strength is 99,8905. As many as 1,049 polling stations have been set up

Out of these 291 are hyper-sensitive and 732 sensitive.

Chhindwara: GGP holds the key
N. D. Sharma

Bhopal, May 2
An interesting feature of the high-profile Chhindwara Lok Sabha constituency in Madhya Pradesh is that both main contestants are being accused of spending enormous amounts of money. The Congress has alleged that the BJP candidate has spent Rs 3 crore on his campaign. The BJP allegation is that the Congress candidate is spending many times more than the amount permitted and that his total amount is not reflected in the accounts he is maintaining. Chhindwara goes to the polls on May 5.

AICC General Secretary Kamal Nath is seeking re-election from Chhindwara. Pitted against him this time is Union Minister of State for Coal Prahlad Patel of the BJP. The contest has been complicated by the presence of Gondwana Ganatantra Parishad (GGP) candidate Manmohan Shah Batti.

Mr Nath has been representing this constituency since 1980 except twice. Once he was denied the ticket in the wake of the hawala allegations and his wife, Ms Alka Nath, had won from there and once he was defeated by Mr Sunderlal Patwa, a former BJP Chief Minister. Mr Prahlad Patel had won the last Lok Sabha elections from Balaghat and is trying his luck in Chhindwara for the first time.

While Mr Nath is relying mostly on the grip he is having on community leaders in the constituency, Mr Patel’s strong point is the promises of all-round development of this utterly backward region held out by Chief Minister Uma Bharati, who has taken Chhindwara district under her charge. Both Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Congress President Sonia Gandhi have campaigned for their respective parties in Chhindwara.

There are 27 candidates in fray from Chhindwara, including those put up by the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. But the one in a position to tilt the scales is the GGP candidate.

The Gondwana Ganatantra Party is a recent phenomenon organised and nurtured on the pride of the Gond tribe predominantly inhabiting central-western parts of MP. The GGP had only one member in the 11th Vidhan Sabha (1998-2003): he had won from the region, which later went to Chhattisgarh. The present Madhya Pradesh Assembly has three members. What is more important, it gave a tough fight to the winning candidates in several constituencies in the Assembly poll. It is keeping equidistance from both the Congress and the BJP.

The GGP has substantial presence in the Chhindwara Lok Sabha constituency. In the recent Assembly elections, the GGP had polled over 1.6 lakh votes in the seven segments of the Chhindwara Lok Sabha constituency it had contested. In fact, Mr Manmohan Shah Batti of the GGP, who is now challenging both Mr Kamal Nath and Mr Prahlad Patel, is an MLA from the Amarwada constituency which forms a part of the Chhindwara Lok Sabha constituency. The Congress, which had won the seat in 1998, had been pushed to the third position.

Since the tribal vote has traditionally gone to the Congress, Mr Nath’s fortunes will dwindle in proportion to the votes Mr Batti polls. That gives credence to the allegations that Mr Nath is spending money to win over the tribal leaders and Mr Patel has given money to Mr Batti for not to withdrawing from the contest.