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Voters’ logic defies conventional wisdom State of Parties
EC order affects poll
merchandise Chidambaram is worth Rs 15 cr Issue of flooding
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Bishnoi vows to get big industrial unit Mr Bishnoi’s main plank is again development of the Bhiwani constituency. He points to the evolution of Adampur as one of the best nurtured constituencies in the country thanks to the long years his father was the chief minister of Haryana. He says Adampur had always returned a member of their family to the assembly for several decades because of the development of the area. Besides, his brother’s constituency Kalka had undergone a transformation too. He claims he will nurse Bhiwani like his father nursed Adampur. Pointing to his rivals, he says there is hardly anything both his opponents can claim credit for in Bhiwani. Both Mr Ajay Singh and Mr Surinder Singh’s fathers have been chief minister of Haryana and if the duo really cared for they could have done wonders for the area. Mr Bishnoi points out that when Mr Bansi Lal was the Railway Minister, a project originally planned for Bhiwani was shifted to Kapurthala in Punjab. This he alleges is a pointer to what Bhiwani can expect from his HVP rival. He says if Bhiwani elects him this time he will get a university established in Bhiwani. He promises to bring at least one big industrial unit in the area to provide impetus to economic development and create jobs. Mr Bishnoi also feels that after the Lok Sabha poll the Chautala government will fall and the Congress will form the next government in Haryana.
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Ajay promises more development Mr Ajay Singh’s main poll plank is the development of Haryana under his father Chief Minister Om Parkash Chautala and his own contributions to the constituency. He thinks that it is not for nothing that he has set up a team of dedicated workers and supporters all over the constituency. He claims credit for establishing a college for women each at Adampur and Behal, elevating Tosham town to the level of a subdivision, setting up of an Industrial Training Institute at Dadri and, above all, providing jobs to over 10,000 youth. Mr Chautala claims no other leader of the area has done this much for area even though his two rivals’ fathers had been chief ministers of Haryana for long periods. Mr Chautala is promising further development of the area after the elections since he thinks development is a slow and continuous process and that the exercise must continue for long term benefits. He firmly believes that his party will win the next Assembly poll in Haryana also which would ensure that benefits accrue to his constituency in large measures. He maintains that the people of the area have seen the functioning of his rival candidates and their parties and that they are now in a position to clearly point out who has shared their sorrows and joys and ensured benefits to a maximum number of people. |
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Surinder wants to rid Haryana of ills Working under the guidance of his father, Mr Surinder Singh has over the years emerged as a leader in his own right. He is trying his best to avenge his 1999 defeat at the hands of Mr Ajay Singh Chautala. Mr Surinder Singh’s main poll plank is also the development of the state as well as Bhiwani which he thinks has come to a halt. He claims that as a “builder” of Haryana, only Mr Bansi Lal can rid Haryana of all the ills and ensure development. He says that Bhiwani has been at the receiving end after the INLD government came to power. Whatever development took place was during his father’s tenures as Chief Minister. He says the law and order situation in Haryana is extremely worrisome. Anti-social elements are being patronised by the ruling party leaders leading to lawlessness, he says. Mr Surinder Singh points to the alleged illegal collection of a cess from miners in Tosham at the behest of the members of the ruling family of Haryana and says that it is the only example of “state backed extortion in the country”. He claims that the Lok Sabha poll is only a precursor to the fall of the INLD government which he claims will pave the way for a HVP government in the state. He says that once the HVP comes to power, electricity will be made available at substantially lower rates than at present. House tax on self occupied houses in urban areas will be abolished and Form 38 and Entry Tax on Haryana industries will be brought on a par with the rates in neighbouring states. He says the HVP has prepared a plan for the development of Haryana which will be implemented from the moment an HVP government comes into being. He says it was during his father’s rule that several irrigation projects were executed. Completion of the Punjab portion of the SYL Canal will be ensured since it was during Mr Bansi Lal’s rule that the Haryana portion of the project was completed.
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Constituency
Profile: KARNAL Those in the fray include Union Minister of State for Home Affairs I.D. Swami (BJP), Arvind Sharma, a former MP (Congress), Transport Minister of Haryana Ashok Arora (INLD), Mr Ram Chandra Jhangra (HVP), Mr Raj Kumar Sharma (Ekta Shakti), and Raghu Mal Bhatt (Samajwadi Party), Mr Surinder Hooda (Lok Janshakti Party) and a few others. The constituency comprises nine Assembly segments out of which six Assembly segments —Indri, Nilokheri, Karnal, Jundla, Gharaunda and Assandh — fall under Karnal district and three segments — Panipat, Samalkha and Naultha — under Panipat district. The total electorate are 12,40,268, including 6,70,681 men and 5,68,587 women. Traditionally a stronghold of the Congress, voters of the Karnal Lok Sabha constituency in the past three decades had elected Congress candidates on five occasions. Veteran Congress leader Chiranji Lal won on four occasions in 1980, 1984, 1989 and 1991 while former Chief Minister Bhajan Lal won the elections from here in 1998. BJP candidate I.D. Swami won the elections on two occasions in 1996 and 1999. Lok Dal candidate Bhagwat Dayal won the seat in 1977. As far as the voting percentage is concerned the BJP in alliance with the INLD managed to secure 56.25 per cent of the total votes in 1999, 34.6 per cent in 1998, 42.2 per cent in 1996, 13.1 per cent in 1991, 44.65 per cent in 1989 and 15.34 per cent in 1984 while the Congress secured 37.07 per cent of the total votes polled in 1999, 41.14 per cent in 1998, 18.25 per cent in 1996, 32.17 per cent in 1991, 46.11 per cent in 1989, 48.67 per cent in 1984 and 15.42 per cent in 1977. Keeping in mind the traditional background of the constituency, it appears that the real fight is between the BJP and the Congress but the prevailing political scenario, particularly after the formation of a new political party, Ekta Shakti, in the region equations have by and large changed with a result that the ruling INLD candidate is likely to give a tough fight. Political observers feel that Ekta Shakti is not in a position to win the elections but a miracle could not be ruled out keeping in view of the campaign style and the dedicated youth it has attracted towards the party in a short span of time. They are running a well-organised door-to-door campaign and attracting a gathering of thousands of people even in the nukkar sabhas. The BJP candidate has a little advantage of being in power at the Centre but is facing certain difficulties in justifying his contribution in the development works carried out in the constituency during the past five years at a time when the INLD is aggressively claiming that every development work has been carried out by the state government. The severing of relations between the INLD and the BJP is a big blow to the BJP candidate who finds going tough alone. However, as on date the BJP is still on the top because the Congress has not yet kicked off its campaign. The HVP is banking upon the anti-incumbency factor against the ruling INLD and weaknesses of the Congress, particularly the delay in the announcement of the candidate and the growing factionalism among their leadership. In the absence of Congress workers from campaign, the HVP candidate has already toured more than 700 villages.
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Constituency
Profile: LUDHIANA This time, both parties have changed their candidates who are contesting from here for the first time. The Congress has given ticket to former Youth Congress president Manish Tewari, while the Akali Dal has fielded Youth Akali Dal president Sharanjit Singh Dhillon. The other candidates in the fray include the Lok Bhalai Party (LBP) president Balwant Singh Ramoowalia, Bhaujan Samaj Party’s Ravinder Singh Sohal and Dr Janardhan Singh, a Bihari who is banking on the migrant workers. It is after 20 years that the Congress has fielded a Hindu candidate after Mr Joginder Pal Pandey of the Congress lost to Mr Mewa Singh Gill of the Akali Dal by a few votes. The Ludhiana parliamentary constituency that has around 16.8 lakh voters is clearly divided into the urban and rural segments with the past elections indicating that the urban voters have a preference for the Congress and the rural for the Akali Dal. Higher poll turnout in the four urban Assembly constituencies of Ludhiana north, south, east and west helps the Congress nominee and vice versa. Similarly, higher polling percentage in the remaining five Assembly segments traditionally helps the Akalis. But the presence of Mr Ramoowalia and Mr Sohal is bound to upset the electoral arithmetic with these two biting into the traditional vote bank. The BJP rank and file is yet to come out openly to canvass for Mr Dhillon. This has affected his campaigning in the city. The reluctance of the BJP cadre to support its Akali ally could prove fatal for the Akalis. Similarly, the BSP that claims to have about 30,000 votes can play a pivotal role in the victory of any candidate by dividing the vote bank. Severe infighting among the ranks of the Congress as well as the Akali Dal is bound to play an important factor in this poll. While, Mr Dhillon, who owes allegiance to Akali Dal general secretary Sukhbir Badal is facing stiff opposition from those party leaders who are closer to former Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal and see Mr Dhillon as their potential rival in the area. At the same time, sitting Congress MP for Ludhiana, Mr Galib and his supporters have so far remained away from the Congress campaign. These two factors are bound to upset the calculations of the Congress and Akali Dal candidates. Besides, Mr Ramoowalia and Mr Sohal have a great potential to eat into the Congress and Akali vote bank.
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COMMENT The death of poor women in the stampede for so-called free saris in Lucknow may be a horrible manifestation of voters being valued only in proportion to their gullibility. The unfortunate fact is that for all the storm over the tragedy, it has little effect on the conduct or prospects of the parties and personalities involved. Instances abound of murder, mayhem and worse in the electoral arena. Yet, come voting day, and those perceived by the informed and intelligentsia as certain to be called to account, have had the last laugh. Take the case of Indira Gandhi, who contested from Chikmagalur in Karnataka in 1978 after she and her party were trounced in the 1977 General Election. It was one of the most high-profile campaigns with extraordinary mobilisation of party as well as non-party political forces from all over the country. Every stalwart of the then ruling Janata Party as well as every opponent of the Emergency rallied together against Mrs Gandhi, the unrepentant absolutist. She, in turn, had the massive governmental machinery of Karnataka controlled by the powerful satrap, Devaraj Urs. It was a tense confrontation and portents of violence all too obvious to be missed. The beating up of activists and breaking up of protests and meetings of those opposed to Mrs Gandhi was routine. Newspaper headlines made little difference to hoodlums persisting with such tactics. But this paled into “trivial” incidents as the campaign climaxed in a violent convulsion: a brutal police attack broke up the last Opposition meeting and in the lobbing of teargas and firing — directly into houses in the vicinity — a college girl was killed and many other innocent persons grievously injured. There was widespread outrage. The next day, throngs of activists poured into Chikmagalur to join the protests, poster campaigns and demonstrations against police atrocities. Came voting day and there was a huge turnout. Indira Gandhi won handsomely. Why did the voters decide thus? All trouble was caused by “outsiders” who had come to Chikmagalur to stir up trouble; these outsiders caused the mischief and invited police action; Mrs Gandhi was not an outsider but the Congress leader and Karnataka Chief Minister Devaraj Urs was duty-bound to get her elected; her opponents carried things too far; and in doing so they were only asking for their heads to be cracked. This was the import of the arguments advanced to show why Mrs Gandhi had emerged victorious despite her anti-democratic record. Authoritarianism as an issue is strictly for the birds. This was established in Tamil Nadu too when MGR contested the Assembly election from Andipatti. On the day he had gone to file his nomination many villages in this arid belt were protesting against the indifference of the authorities to their need for regular water supply. During an altercation with the demonstrators, the police opened fire and quite a few women were killed. Predictably enough, reporters in their despatch touched on how the police firing could mar the prospects of MGR, the liberating hero of the oppressed sections in his many films and a champion of women who worshipped him for these roles. “The women in these villages would certainly turn against him because of the killing of some women who took part in the agitation for water,” was the immediate conclusion. After all, the women victims and impoverished villagers surviving on scarce water would certainly be outraged that, in real life, their hero, far from going to the rescue of the weaker sections like in his films, had actually turned the police on them. Later that night, a visit to the affected areas revealed how flawed this textbook approach to electoral politics was. Despite their sorrow over the deaths, the womenfolk who gave their reactions, did not appear to feel betrayed by MGR; nor were they angry. “The women who were in the forefront of the agitation were behaving like men, like politicians. They were not behaving like women who needed MGR’s protection. If you go in for politics and agitations then you have to face police and bullets.” This was the import of what the group said. And, so it came as no surprise when MGR won by a staggering margin. Therefore, it would be naive to expect that Vajpayee would run out of luck now, in the aftermath of the sari stampede. Voters do not hand out political punishment for the effects of a situation as perceived by the intelligentsia. The logic of the voters’ world and their location of the politician in that world can be at odds with conventional wisdom. Had it been otherwise, MGR who was accused of running a repressive “police state” would not have won successive elections; and nor would Indira Gandhi, who subverted the Constitution and trampled democratic norms underfoot, have won in Chikmagalur and, later, returned to office in 1980.
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State
of Parties: BSP Chandigarh, April 20 He joined the Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJP) of Mr Ram Vilas Paswan only to leave it soon after and joined the INLD. Politically-conscious Dalits, BSP’s core support base, could accept his affiliation to the LJP, but his joining the INLD has given them a rude shock. There are other instances too which reflect the loyalty levels among BSP functionaries. The party’s only MLA in the state, Mr B.S. Saini, has always supported the INLD, in the legislature even though the BSP claims to be in the Opposition in the state. Also, a former party MP is fighting the elections from Ambala on a Haryana Vikas Party ticket. It is believed that the Congress will regain a substantial portion of its Dalit support. In the last Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections, a major chunk of the Dalit votes was bagged by the INLD-BJP combine. The Dalits are, however, not happy with the choice made by them in the last elections. Since the BSP is a weak entity in Haryana, the Dalit voters may opt for the Congress. It is not clear how the emergence of the Indian Justice Party (IJP), claiming to represent the aspiration of the Dalits, will affect the fate of the BSP. So far the IJP has decided to field only one candidate from Haryana and that too from the Sirsa (reserved) constituency. In the remaining seats, it is planning to cooperate with some party and it may turn out to be the Congress. The BSP has put up candidates in all 10 seats. The caste-wise breakdown of the candidates is three Dalits, three from backward classes, three from forward castes and one Muslim. |
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State
of Parties: PDP Srinagar, April 20 The National Conference was relegated to the Opposition with 28 members. The PDP had to enter into a coalition with the Congress (20), Panthers Party (4), CPM (2) and an 11-member Peoples Democratic Forum (PDF) of Independents and others. In the Lok Sabha elections in 1999, the PDP gave a close fight to the National Conference but lost all three seats of Srinagar, Anantnag and Baramula. In its manifesto during the 2002 Assembly elections, the PDP resolved to “re-dedicate itself to redeeming the situation” following “misgovernance and false promises” of the National Conference. It stood for dismantling of the repressive regime and the withdrawal of draconian laws like POTA, Disturbed Areas Act and the Armed Forces Special Powers Act. The manifesto stressed on its fight against corruption. It claims to its credit the improved Indo-Pak relations and the Centre-Hurriyat dialogue. It also takes credit for the proposal to begin a bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad. Though the talks on the bus service have been postponed, the PDP leadership says it is a major breakthrough in the improved relations between the two countries. The National Conference has been describing the PDP as a “total failure”. The PDP during the past five years has emerged as a party to reckon with after the National Conference.
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State
of Parties: Akali Dal (A) Chandigarh, April 20 The party has a strong influence in the Malwa belt of Ludhiana-Sangrur- Bathinda districts. Mr Mann had won from the Sangrur Lok Sabha constituency by defeating Akali leader Surjit Singh Barnala, with roots in the Sangrur belt by a huge margin. Mr Mann virtually ousted Mr Barnala from active politics in this area. This time, again, Mr Mann is in the fray from the Sangrur constituency and is contesting against Union Minister, Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa (SAD) and Mr Arvind Khanna, (Congress). Mr Mann’s party has put up candidates in the Ropar, Hoshiarpur, Ferozepore, Bathinda, Patiala and Faridkot Lok Sabha constituencies. Mr Mann entered State’s politics about 15 years ago. In the 1989 Lok Sabha elections, candidates supported by Mr Mann won eight seats. Mr Mann himself had won from the Tarn Taran Lok Sabha constituency with a record margin, defeating Mr Ajit Singh of the Congress. He had then almost wiped out the traditional Akali leadership led by Mr Parkash Singh Badal. Later Mr Mann’s party started losing its grip over the rural masses who again turned to Akali leaders such as Mr Badal. Mr Mann is now trying to create base for his party among the Sikh masses. He has been relentlessly attacking the traditional Akali leadership, saying that they had done nothing for the Khalsa Panth except serving themselves. It is not an easy task for Mr Mann who knows that the Akali leadership has a strong base in the rural areas. One major flaw of party is that it
doesn't have a strong organisational set-up in the state. In fact, Mr Mann has not made serious attempts to build the party’s organisational base in a systematic manner, starting from the village level. A particular section of Sikhs supports it across the state.
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EC order affects poll
merchandise Chennai, April 20 Once elections are announced Parry’s Corner in the northern part of this state capital becomes abuzz with activity. Election managers of all political parties place orders for flags, posters, life-size cutouts of leaders and other poll merchandise in large numbers. Commercial artists who paint wall graffitis are also in great demand. But not this time. The Election Commission’s directive restricting candidates on their campaign hoardings, graffitis and posters has affected the business of printing presses and commercial artists here. Balanandan of Balaji Offset Calendars is disappointed. “The Election Commission’s order has played havoc with our business as political parties have placed hardly 20 per cent of the orders they usually placed before earlier elections,” he said. Lakshman of Friends Calendars said, “The Election Commission has appointed 2,000 observers throughout the country to keep an eye on campaign expenses of candidates. This has scared many candidates and even the major political parties were reluctant to place orders.’’ Election trinkets like metal badges, key chains, caps and T-shirts with emblems of various political parties had always been a big draw in rural south India during elections. The situation in Sivakasi in southern Tamil Nadu and 500 km from here, said to be the printing capital of the country, is equally grim. They have not received any bulk orders, which even came from other states in south India. Said the president of the Sivakasi Master Printers Association, A. Kumaravel, “The printing units here are silent. There was a time when we received orders for printing lakhs of posters from political parties.” The Election Commission’s curb on expenses on posters has left these units high and dry. They hope during the next Assembly elections in 2006 in Tamil Nadu they would receive bulk orders as legislators depend more on campaign through posters and leaflets.
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Chidambaram is worth Rs 15 cr Chennai, April 20 In his declaration, now made mandatory by the Election Commission, Mr Chidambaram declared that his immediate family owned assets worth more than Rs 15 crore. The poorest among the nominees who have filed nominations till date is Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) candidate for the Chidambaram (reserved) parliamentary constituency and former Union Minister of State for Petroleum E. Ponnuswamy. He has assets worth only Rs 2.96 lakh while his liabilities are Rs 2.34 lakh. |
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Issue of flooding
ignored Kaiserganj, April 20 But the motley crowd of people who turn up to hear the politicians deliver false promises and the ordinary workers need not expose themselves to the risk of heat stroke. But even they do. It is the small incentives that party managers offer that usually creates the mirage of popular interest. Deep down, most poll managers are worried about the negative impact of the heatwave on voter turnout. A campaign manager was honest enough to admit that people have begun to loathe most politicians. The nasty weather may make their mood even nastier and they may prefer the shade of a tree to walking all the way to the polling booth in what may turn out to be one of the hottest summers in living memory. Kaiserganj has become important because of Mr Arif Mohammad Khan’s decision to contest from here on BJP ticket. He had contested the last two elections from the neighbouring Bahraich as a Bahujan Samaj candidate. He had won against Mr Padamsen Choudhary of the BJP in 1998 and lost to him in 1999. Yesterday’s rivals are now on the same side. Mr Choudhary is again contesting from Bahraich. In Kaiserganj, the BJP is expecting Mr Khan to work a miracle that would make the Muslims shed their animus for the BJP. Can he do it? It looks like a tough task in the light of certain initiatives the Muslim community has taken for foiling the saffron game plan. For the first time, the party has fielded 10 Muslim candidates from different constituencies in India. The BJP’s voluble spokesman, Mr Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, has promised 50 seats to the Muslims in the next election depending on what kind of response the “minority-friendly” gesture receives from the electorate. Various Muslim organisations across the country have asked the community to reject every single Muslim candidate fielded by the BJP. A group of clerics have, however, rejected the option of issuing a fatwa. Will the appeal work? However, in the overall context this election, like the earlier ones, too has ignored the real issue that touches the lives of most people in the belt touching Nepal. Of course, it is an issue that has international implications. The flooding of the areas touching Nepal because of the reckless felling of trees on the other side of the border has never received the attention it deserves. Over a million families have been displaced in the past few decades because of the havoc that the untamed Gandak, Rapti and Buri Ganga cause during the rainy season. Thousands of hectares of agricultural land is washed away because of massive soil erosion. Among the political heavyweights who are contesting from constituencies touching the Nepal border are Mr Vinay Katiyar from Lakhimpur Kheri, Mr Choudhary from Bahraich and Mr Arif Khan from Kaiserganj. They have not spoken a word about the floods caused in their constituencies by soil degradation in Nepal. Surprisingly, not even Mrs Maneka Gandhi, contesting as a BJP candidate from Pilibhit, has made any commitment or comment on an issue that is supposed to be close to her heart.
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Videos
The youngest of the progeny of Lals, Mr Kuldeep Singh Bishnoi is contesting a Lok Sabha poll for the first time. He has been a member of the Haryana Assembly representing the family pocket borough Adampur in the past. The younger of Mr Bhajan Lal’s two politician sons, Mr Bishnoi graduated from Chandigarh with honours in public administration. He runs an export-import business and looks after the Adampur Assembly segment on behalf of his father who now heads the Haryana Congress. He does not consider himself as an outsider since he says his Assembly constituency Adampur is a part of the Bhiwani Lok Sabha constituency. 
The Indian National Lok Dal nominee for the Bhiwani Lok Sabha, seat Mr Ajay Singh Chautala, has won elections not only in Haryana but also in Rajasthan where he has been member of the state Assembly. A soft spoken person, he has spent a lot of time during the past five years nursing his constituency which elected him the last time by a huge margin. The current electoral battle is, nevertheless, his toughest since this time he faces the progeny of two other Lals of Haryana politics instead of just one in 1999.
The Haryana Vikas Party nominee, Mr Surinder Singh, is the eldest among the progeny of Lals now battling it out in the vast desert expanses of Bhiwani. He has been a minister in Haryana and member of both Houses of Parliament. In his youth, he was treasurer of the Indian Youth Congress. A law graduate, he has been a keen sportsman ever since he was a student. 
Karnal, April 20
Ludhiana, April 20