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Candidates beware Subcontinental
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Peter Jackson’s
Oscars Fantasy proves to be the king History was in the making and was also repeating itself. The Oscar presentation always has many magic moments but this time there was an overdose of the razzmatazz. The ceremony has seen 76 editions but there have been only two occasions in the past when any film swept every category in which it was nominated.
Opinion polls or
wild guesses?
The original
Lahori
The battle for Andhra Pradesh
Legal Notes
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Candidates beware IT is indeed gratifying that the Election Commission is making all possible efforts to ensure that elections are freer and fairer. In readily complying with the Delhi High Court's order to ask all the candidates whether they owe any money to the government and whether they have any criminal antecedents and publish such details in two newspapers, the commission has proved its earnestness of purpose. It could have challenged the directive on the ground that it would be difficult to have thousands of such affidavits published in newspapers, when only a small fraction of the electorate has access to the print media. The huge cost involved could have been another deterrent. But in its overweaning desire to cleanse the system of criminal and rapacious elements, it did not bother about the cost. It probably thought, if the government could spend crores of rupees on the 'India Shining' campaign, it should not deny the required funds to the Election Commission. It had become a common practice among legislators to use telephone, water, electricity and other facilities far in excess of the liberal limits the government has fixed on them and never pay for such facilities. They are also not known to vacate the bungalows allotted to them when they lose their membership. The public would know about them only when a legislator asks a question on the arrears due from them in the House. By forcing the candidates to give such details, the electorate would get an idea of the persons seeking their votes. They know that filing a wrong affidavit can lead to cancellation of their election. In view of The Tribune exposure
about the MP Local Area Development funds being siphoned off by a
large number of MPs, it is heartwarming that the commission has
ordered a freeze on any expenditure under this scheme till the
elections are over. Though it is now more than 10 years since the
scheme was introduced by the Narasimha Rao government, which did not
enjoy a clear majority and was desperate to please MPs, it is for the
first time the EC has introduced such a ban. Given the need for money
to fight elections, even honest MPs and MLAs would have been tempted
to misuse the funds. While there is a strong case to end the scheme,
it was thoughtful of the commission to have virtually suspended it
till the polls are over. |
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Subcontinental contest With just a week to go for the Indian cricket team's Pakistan tour, the fever is mounting. Coming as it does after a gap of 14 years, the excitement is understandable and only to be expected. Less understandable is the attempt to add a political pitch to the sports field and raise the diplomatic stakes for neighbourly relations. Pumping in so much domestic and bilateral politics in what is billed as the subcontinent's biggest mega show packed with stars and sponsorships, and assured of worldwide audiences, is fraught with obvious risks. The one-day matches and the Test series would go on for 38-days and there are enough tensions and challenges that the cricketers have to reckon with. The atmosphere, charged with passions, would be electric and the pressure to perform, tremendous. The endurance of the players on both sides would be tested to the very limits. This is about the utmost that the players, being but mortals, can cope with. It would serve little purpose to cast the cricket encounter as a gladiatorial do-or-die battle of supremacy between India and Pakistan. To do so would stir divisive nationalistic loyalties on both sides of the border, and such expressions are best kept away from the sports field, if not altogether from public life. Far from encouraging people-to-people relations, for which the cricket tour is a big help, the infusion of national passion can only give an undesirable spin to the series. True, there have been
wars and hostilities between India and Pakistan and diplomatic tangles
to be negotiated. But this occasion is neither for dredging up of a
history of bitterness nor for seeking to put those behind us by
clamouring for victory. Such unreasonable expectations would be
self-defeating, regardless of the outcome of the matches, as it would
vitiate the very spirit of the game. Above all, what should prevail is
the sporting spirit. That would be the triumph of people over politics,
on both sides. |
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Peter Jackson’s Oscars History was in the making and was also repeating itself. The Oscar presentation always has many magic moments but this time there was an overdose of the razzmatazz. The ceremony has seen 76 editions but there have been only two occasions in the past when any film swept every category in which it was nominated. On Sunday, “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” did what “Gigi” and “The Last Emperor” had done before it. But while these films had scored a nine-for-nine, Peter Jackson’s mega movie picked up as many as 11 Oscars, matching the haul of “Titanic” and “Ben Hur”. As if that was not enough, it was the first fantasy film to dominate like that. It was not in line for any acting award. There, “Mystic River” had a rich picking getting the best actor award for Sean Penn who played a vengeful father and best supporting actor trophy for Tim Robbins. Women’s roles are now being crafted with much finer detail. Charlize Theron totally transformed herself to play a complex serial killer in “Monster” to be declared the best actress while Renee Zellweger put in a similar effort in “Cold Mountain” for best supporting actress statue. So why has “Return of the King”, a tale of wizards and dwarves, wowed the world? Perhaps because the reality is too stark and depressing. Sean Penn referred to this fact obliquely when he talked about there being no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Talking of glamour, the oomph factor was back with a vengeance
this year, what with actresses donning gowns with $ 1 million worth of
jewels and men wearing suits to match. But at the same time, most femme
fatale made sure that they very much remained on this side of the line
of decency. The Janet Jackson expose has obviously had its effect on the
show-world. Imagine there being a five-second delay in the telecast of
the Oscar presentation to billions of viewers to make sure that there
was no nudity! |
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History is past politics, and politics is present history. — E.A.
Freeman |
Opinion polls or wild guesses? DURING last year’s Assembly elections — as in several other elections in the recent past — psephologists were as active as were the politicians. Nearly half a dozen crystal gazers educated us in serious tones on who was winning and why. The same was the case with opinion polls and exit polls which filled nearly every newspaper and news magazine. And yet, hardly any one of them predicted anything about the resounding victory of the BJP in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. One or two did speak of the slight “edge” that the saffron party enjoyed while all the rest held forth on the inevitability of the Congress triumph. The only thing predictable about their assertions was that they once again proved to be wrong. Leave alone the bull’s eye, some of them even missed the target entirely. The results of their comprehensive, “scientific” studies were about as dependable as the predictions made by the wayside astrologer in the neighbourhood. Immediately thereafter, they started the usual game of justifying the error by talking animatedly about the last-minute swing, the anti-incumbency factor and what not. The truth is that even if psephology is a science, it is a highly inexact science prone to monumental errors. Predicting the voters’ mind depends on far too many factors, which are almost impossible to take into account simultaneously. Opinion polls are conducted using almost the same methodology which is employed in market surveys. Unfortunately, people do not vote as predictably as they do while purchasing soap or oil. Not only that, there is blind emulation of sampling and other methods used in western countries. This template just does not work in a country as large and heterogeneous as India. We will discuss the scope for mischief inherent in such surveys a little while later. For the time being, let us focus on the studies which are purely unbiased, professional and neutral in nature. Even if the agency conducting the survey is doing a professional job, it is hemmed in by various factors, the most important being financial considerations, while deciding the size of the sample. Only a limited number of respondents can be approached despite a substantial budget. This sample is used to extrapolate trends for the entire population. The whole business of predicting results is based on the assumption that the rest of the people will vote according to this representative population. In practice, this just does not happen. You can know whether the rice in a pot is cooked or not by sampling a single rice. But this method does not work in the case of voters. No fractional sample can be representative of the whole. After all, you can pick and choose the persons to be interviewed on the basis of only limited parameters — rural or urban, educated or illiterate, rich or poor, young or poor — but when it comes to the entire voting public there can be infinite variations. Errors can occur in the collection of data and also at the stage of its interpretation. The selection of the sample can be faulty. So can be the construction of the survey questionnaire. Leading questions distort the picture. The greatest errors can occur in the process of interpreting the data. Even if the top bosses are keen on honesty and integrity, the onus of maintaining the standards falls on the numerous enumerators on the ground. A mistake — deliberate or otherwise — made by even one person out of a hundred corrupts the data greatly, considering that the information has to be magnified many times over to reach national or state figures. There are also instances where enumerators, mostly unemployed youth, have filled the forms sitting in their hotel rooms without bothering to go out and interview people. To that extent, what is perceived as the barometer of the public mood is nothing more than wish fulfilment. This allegation is hotly contested with everyone striking a holier-than-thou pose but it is a grim reality. When a survey is carried out also has a bearing on the results. Most interviews are held several weeks before the D-day. During the final run-up to the elections, public mind is extremely time-sensitive. The whole situation changes in a matter of days. That is how the strides made by the BJP during the run-up to the election in Rajasthan were missed by most surveys. Similarly, how much weightage is to be given to each parameter like education, caste, sex and age is more guesswork than an objective equation. Opinion polls do manage to be reasonably accurate in assessing the vote percentage but this is not of much help in knowing the number of seats a party will get in the first-past-the-post system. Most of the time, the seats won have no resemblance with the predictions made by psephologists. Unusually high or low voting can also make all calculations go awry. Even exit polls are not very reliable because their accuracy depends on the premise that those interviewed are telling the whole truth. In the Indian situation where politicians treat those who are suspected to have voted against them as personal enemies, very few voters are willing to reveal their mind, even if anonymity is assured. Again, the feint by even a few can corrupt the entire results. Since a significant section of the population is illiterate, the results of opinion polls can have considerable bearing on the final outcome, as everybody wants to back a winning horse. Somehow, printed word is taken as gospel truth. The capacity to sway the voters’ mind is even more in the case of electronic media. It is true that the media cannot influence all seats but in the current scenario, where fractured mandate is the order of the day, even a marginal difference one way or the other can make or mar the destiny of the nation. That also brings one to the issue of mischief. Most newspapers and cable channels are owned by business houses. There is nothing to stop them if they decide to influence the public mind through tailored opinion polls. Just because this is not happening is no guarantee that this cannot happen. As long as we do not have adequate safeguards in place, does it make sense to have opinion polls at all? One argument that is put forward in favour of such surveys is that the voters have a “right to information”. But this right can be meaningful only if the public has adequate protection against misinformation. Since there is no such mechanism in place as yet, the whole exercise becomes futile. Just as elections in
multiple phases over an extended period are unique to India, the rules
that are framed regarding poll surveys have to be in tune with the
Indian ground realities. Even in the western countries, where voters
boast of greater maturity, there are restrictions on the publication
and broadcast of opinion polls. In France and Italy poll results
cannot be published in the week preceding the election. In Canada, the
period is two days, in Spain five days and in Portugal full two weeks.
US convention is to voluntarily withhold the results of the exit polls
until after polling is over in that state. Such regulation is all the
more necessary in India. |
The original Lahori WHERE do you come from? This is a question we all have to answer only too often. It is the place a person belongs to that decides many things. For the likes of me born after the Partition of the country to parents who migrated from West Punjab, the problem of roots and identity has always been a complex one. My usual answer to this question would be, “I come from Chandigarh.” Now that Chandigarh has completed 50 years of existence, the reply is accepted but some two and a half decades ago I remember the famous Punjabi short story writer Kulwant Singh Virk getting vexed at this reply and saying, “No one can belong to Chandigarh. Tell me where your parents were from?” When I told him that my mother was from Rawalpindi, my father from Lahore and I from Chandigarh, he laughed and said, “So you are the daughter of three Capitals!” My name on the other hand causes more identity crises. The suffix of ‘Dutt’ often raises doubts about my lingual affiliations. With my dark looks highlighting my name, I have often been taken for a Bengali. Well, this has been help at times and more so in my career as an art critic. A Bengali name gets an easier entry in culture-land where the pragmatic Punjabis are most often ‘agriculturally’ suspect. So very often I let this case of mistaken identity pass but when I break into Punjabi verse, I have had surprised bhadralog raising an eyebrow. Other times I have to tell enthusiastic young artists from Kolkata who roll the ‘a’ present twice in my first name into round roshogullas, add Didi and rattle off in Bangla, that I am a Punjabi. “How come?” follows the surprised query, “Dutts are Bengalis.” I tell them that they are Punjabis too and to convince them, I say, “The Sunil Dutt variety.” He is the most famous among the Punjabi Dutts. However, in a sojourn to Lahore this month,
I learnt a lot more about the Dutts, who belong to a clan popularly
known as Hussaini Brahmins. Majid Sheikh in an article on the The
Dutts of Mochi Gate in The Dawn of January 6, 2004, writes that they
lived in large numbers in Lahore and fled the city only at the time of
the Partition. The writer also mentions that Sunil Dutt gifted $
100,000 to Shaukat Khanum Cancer Hospital in the memory of his wife,
the celebrated actress Nargis. Dutts may have done something for
Lahore but it is Lahore that has given me the identity of being an
original Lahori. |
The battle for Andhra Pradesh The Election Commission has announced a two-phase poll in Andhra
Pradesh on April 20 and 26. Campaigning for simultaneous elections to
the Lok Sabha and the State Assembly had started ever since the
dissolution of the Assembly on Nov 14, 2003. While the ruling Telugu
Desam Party’s campaign seems to be on a high pitch even before six
weeks of polling, the Congress, the main Opposition party, continues
to be in a state of flux. Having remained out of power for well over a
decade, its leaders and workers are tired. In particular, the former
ministers, used to the trappings of power during the Congress’ long
innings, have been feeling like fish out of water ever since the TDP’s
emergence in the political firmament of the state. The state
Congress president, Mr D. Srinivas, is of no match to Chief Minister
N. Chandrababu Naidu’s image and stature. A novice in politics, his
sphere of influence is restricted to Nizamabad district in Telangana.
Added to his lack of political skills is the continued factionalism
and dissidence in the party. The Congress Legislature Party leader, Dr
Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, is an astute politician but has no mass
appeal. He hails from Rayalaseema. He is more a rabble-rouser than an
administrator. Always a contender for chief ministership, his attempts
to embarrass the ruling party leaders and Mr Naidu have failed to
click. Even as the Congress was trying to recover from its stupor,
its alliance with the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) of Mr K.
Chandrasekhar Rao, who is at the forefront of the movement for
separate statehood for Telangana, has come as a shot in the arm for
the party. The pre-poll alliance between the Congress and the TRS,
claimed as the “Grand Alliance”, is expected to pose a challenge to
the TDP. The Left parties like the CPI and the CPI (M) have also
joined the alliance, paving the way for a direct one-to-one fight
between the TDP and the combined Opposition in 107 out of 294 Assembly
seats and 16 out of 42 Lok Sabha constituencies in Telangana
region. Andhra Pradesh comprises three regions — Telangana,
Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra. The TRS’ charges of continued neglect
of Telangana cannot be overlooked. In fact, Telangana has never had
its slice of the cake for historical reasons. Even before its
integration with Andhra Pradesh, its people were exploited by
successive dynasties — the Satavahanas, the Qutab Shahis and the
Nizams of Hyderabad. The TRS may have discovered a catchy theme to
woo the voters. However, notwithstanding the announcement of an
alliance, differences persist between the Congress and the Left on the
TRS’ demand for a separate Telangana state. More to the point, some
leaders have questioned the Congress’ “meek surrender” to a
sub-regional party like the TRS by giving away 42 Assembly and six Lok
Sabha seats. Mr Chandrasekhar Rao says that he is not bothered by
different voices in the party and that he will go by the commitment of
senior Congress leader, Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad, who is also in-charge of
the state Congress. Mr Azad’s quibbling equivocations confirm the
Congress’ ambivalence on the issue. The Congress and the Left are
totally opposed to the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh. Moreover, while
joining hands with the TRS to take on the TDP unitedly, they are
opposed to the TRS leader’s pressure tactics to extract his pound of
flesh. The BJP, which is to contest as an ally of the TDP, is one
with the ruling party in opposing the statehood demand. This is in
contrast to its earlier view in the last elections. It feels that
there is no political consensus on Telangana now. It has drawn a
distinction between its stand on Telangana and Vidarbha in
Maharashtra. It says that Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Uttaranchal were
created on the unanimous recommendations of the respective state
legislatures. Such a consensus is missing now. It would be premature
to draw inference on the likely impact of the “Grand Alliance” on the
electorate. However, magnifying its importance as to predict the
defeat of the Chandrababu Naidu government would be an overstatement.
One cannot overlook the fact that Telangana has always been a
stronghold of the Congress, compared to Rayalaseema and coastal
Andhra. The majority of the Assembly seats won by the Congress in the
last elections were from Telangana. Thus, any discussion on the
Opposition’s poll prospects vis-a-vis the TDP should be examined in
its totality on the basis of the overall scenario and not in
isolation. Andhra Pradesh is dominated by the Reddys and the Kammas —
the two leading landowning communities. While the former owe their
allegiance to the Congress, the latter are identified with the TDP.
Electorally, they do not count much as they constitute only 10 per
cent of the population. But the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), with a
44 per cent vote share, can make or mar the government. If the TDP
could demolish the Congress, it was because of N.T. Rama Rao’s success
in weaning the OBCs away to his side through various schemes.
Apparently, there has been no shift in their choice during Mr Naidu’s
nine-year rule. Muslims have a 12 per cent vote share in the state.
In Telangana, they constitute 20 per cent of the population. The
results of the two last elections — the Lok Sabha and the State
Assembly — suggest that the Muslims had solidly backed the TDP. It is
a moot point whether the “Grand Alliance” would make inroads into the
TDP’s vote bank now. But it needs to be emphasised that the TDP has
better equations with the Muslims than the Congress. In fact, one
reason for the TDP’s support to the NDA Government at the Centre from
outside has been its strategy to keep its Muslim support intact. Mr
Naidu has given a new thrust to development through e-governance and
information technology. Since 1997, he has received the maximum
assistance from the Centre, compared to any other State — Rs 11,000
crore worth foodgrains and an additional Rs 12,000 crore from Power,
Food and Rural Development ministries. His government has also done
well in population stabilisation, education and health. Women’s
empowerment through schemes like the Self-Help Groups (SHGs) and the
Development of Women and Children in Rural Areas (DWCRAs) is yet
another big success. In fact, this is one reason why women form an
important vote bank of the TDP. Mr Naidu is also hailed as a global
CEO in the field of administration. But global image does not help in
local elections. Mr Naidu is buffetted by problems at home. There are
many disaffected sections. There is no even distribution of income.
The cotton farmers, the weavers and the agriculturists are all
unhappy. A NASSCOM survey may have ave selected Hyderabad as the
Number One destination in IT-enabled services, but critics say that Mr
Naidu’s success is mostly Hyderabad-centric. Mr Naidu is also branded
as authoritarian as the party revolves around him. In the Chief
Minister’s own camp, his MPs have failed to acquire any authority over
the years. Some of them say that though the TDP had a 29-member team
in the dissolved Lok Sabha, they had to pay a heavy price for having
remained out of Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government as a matter of
policy. Ministerial berths would have given them the authority and
funds to launch welfare schemes in their constituencies. True, Mr
Naidu got funds, but what about individual contributions? The result:
they are wary of facing the electorate. After all, politics is not
only a matter of principles but also practicalities. The TDP’s
“Vijaya Bheri” (sounding of the victory bugle) rally at Hyderabad
recently was, no doubt, a success. It is said that the meeting was
much larger than the “Praja Garjana” (roar of the people) rally
organised by N.T. Rama Rao 10 years ago. Mr Naidu, who survived an
assassination attempt by the Naxalites, has charged that the Congress
and the TRS are hand-in-gloves with the People’s War Group and that
they are pursuing “negative politics” and hindering development. It
remains to be seen whether the electorate would believe his words. |
|
Legal Notes In an important judgement, the Supreme Court has held that the High Courts have the power under Article 227 of the Constitution and Section 482 of the Criminal Procedure Code to review any matter in which the applicability of a special law passed by a state has been questioned. This was laid down by the Court while deciding the Himachal Pradesh Government’s appeal in a resin smuggling case. Allowing the state’s appeal, the Bench comprising Mr Justice Doraiswamy Raju and Mr Justice Arijit Pasayat said there was no “impediment” in entertaining a revision petition by the High Courts under Article 227. The Himachal Government, in its appeal, had raised
a question before the Supreme Court whether the High Courts could have
exercised the power under Section 482 of the Cr.PC or Article 227 of
the Constitution to review the judgement of a Sessions Court at Solan,
holding that the forest officer had no authority under Section 69 of
the Indian Forest (Himachal Pradesh Second Amendment) Act, to
confiscate the resin as it was not claimed to be a property of the
state. No embargo on appellate courts Laying down yet another set
of guidelines for the courts in criminal cases, the Supreme Court has
said that there was no embargo on appellate courts for reviewing an
evidence on the basis of which an accused had been acquitted. “A
miscarriage of justice which may arise from the acquittal of the
guilty is no less than the conviction of an innocent. In a case where
admissible evidence is ignored, a duty is cast upon the appellate
court to re-appreciate the same where the accused has been acquitted,”
a Bench comprising Mr Justice P.V. Reddi and Mr Justice Arijit Pasayat
laid down. But the apex court made it clear that the principle of
review of evidence in a judgement of acquittal, required the appellate
court’s interference when there was “compelling and substantial
reasons for doing so.” “Exaggerations per se do not render the
evidence brittle. But it can be one of the factors to test the
credibility of prosecution version,” the Court held.
Trader jailed
for adulteration A trader from Himachal Pradesh, acquitted both by
the trial court and the High Court in a decade-old adulteration case,
was sentenced to six moths imprisonment by the Supreme Court, finding
him guilty of selling adulterated “shakkar”. A fine of Rs 1,000 was
also imposed on him. Accused Narendra Kumar was found of selling
adulterated “shakkar” when his shop was raided by Food Department
officials in 1985 but he was acquitted by the trial judge, whose order
was also upheld by the High Court. However, the apex court gave
benefit of doubt to supplier firm, Jain Trading Company, which was
named as co-accused in the case. The court, however, said because two
decades had passed since the complaint was filed, the accused could
move a petition before the state government for commuting his sentence
of imprisonment. Petition against Nayanar The Supreme Court has
given liberty to Mr M.A. Kuttappan, a Scheduled Caste MLA from Kerala,
to file a fresh complaint against former Chief Minister and senior CPM
leader E.K. Nayanar for allegedly making “disparaging” remarks about
his caste against him in an election rally in 1996. It would be open
to Mr Kuttappan, if so advised, to file a complaint before a competent
court of a magistrate who “shall” consider the same on its merit and
proceed further in accordance with the law, a Bench comprising Mr
Justice N. Santhosh Hegde and Mr Justice B.P. Singh said. |
Vedic sacrifices are
directed to the acquisition of material rewards but the Gita asks us to
renounce all selfish desire and work, making all life a sacrifice,
offered with true devotion. — The Bhagavad Gita Lust befriends
beauty as spontaneously as hunger befriends the taste. — Guru
Nanak God is too great to be withstood, too just to do wrong, too
good to delight in anyone’s misery. We ought, therefore, quietly to
submit to his dispensations as the very best. — Bishop Wilson What
you hear in Sangat, think and ponder over it; once you accept it, have
full faith in it. One who breaks away from Truth cannot live in
peace. — Nirankari Baba Hardev Singh Ahimsa is the strongest force
known. — Mahatma Gandhi |
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