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Tuesday,
October 29, 2002, Chandigarh, India   |
Crucial
Gujarat elections Krishna’s
watered-down stand |
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A study of
the Chinese miracle-II
Beware
of the dangerous liaison The gas
and Russian secrecy — as usual
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Crucial Gujarat elections The controversy over the powers of the Election Commission has come to a happy end with Monday’s Supreme Court ruling. The apex court’s verdict has it that the commission is the final authority on holding polls under Article 324, and that there is no constitutional compulsion to go in for such an exercise within six months of the last sitting of an Assembly in case the House was dissolved prematurely. With the commission’s viewpoint having been upheld by the judiciary, it has quickly come out with the election schedule for Gujarat to enable the people to give their verdict on the Narendra Modi government’s functioning, particularly after the February 27 Godhra disaster. The Chief Election Commissioner, Mr L. M. Lyngdoh, has expressed satisfaction at the preparation of the electoral rolls and the arrangements made for people to exercise their right of franchise in an atmosphere free from fear. The riot-hit voters’ interests have been taken care of. There will be a long gap between the date of polling in a single phase — December 12 — and the end of the communal disturbances that followed the Godhra incident, sufficient for the affected people to come out of the social and emotional trauma. Mr Lyngdoh appears to be guided by the ground realities in demanding a massive deployment of the paramilitary forces for maintaining order in Gujarat in view of the questions raised over the impartiality and professionalism of the state’s police force. The Centre has, understandably, acceded to the CEC’s demand. One, therefore, hopes that the elections in the western state will be as free and fair, with 100 per cent transparency, as the world could see in Jammu and Kashmir. As is well known, the battle of the ballot will be mainly between the ruling BJP and the Congress. But the poll outcome will largely depend on how the silent majority looks at the role of the politicians, both ruling and non-ruling, during and after the tumultuous period. Gujarat has suffered a lot in terms of social unrest and economic slowdown, leading to great resentment among all sections of society. When a social fire engulfs a whole area, it does not distinguish between one religious group and another. Everybody is a loser— some more, some less. Chief Minister Narendra Modi and his party colleagues have been claiming that the state government did all that it could to control the state’s, nay, the country’s, worst communal riots — an act of self-destruction from the national angle. But it is difficult to believe the assertion in view of the adverse media reports. In any case, the government’s controversial role led to communal polarisation on a disturbing scale. The BJP was insisting on an early poll, perhaps, with a view to exploiting the situation to retain power. This could not happen because the Election Commission took an appreciably independent stand, influenced by the ground realities. Reports suggest that the situation is changing fast. People are gradually realising their mistake of having been carried by their emotions, strengthened by politicians’ irresponsible outbursts. Till February Gujarat was known as the industrial hub of India. Will it be able to retain this enviable status unless there is a drastic change in the climate from the social security angle? Unlike in any other state, development is going to be a major issue in the coming elections. Development is possible only when there is an atmosphere of peace. And, as we all understand it well, communal harmony is an essential ingredient of peace and progress. |
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Krishna’s watered-down stand Karnataka Chief Minister S.M.Krishna’s unconditional apology to the Supreme Court on Monday, preceded by his decision to release 10,000 cusecs of the Cauvery water to Tamil Nadu, should hopefully resolve a major constitutional crisis between the executive and the judiciary. The crisis started brewing after the apex court’s strong indictment on Friday of the state government for its irresponsible conduct on the issue. The Supreme Court, while withholding the quantum of punishment to the Chief Minister and other contemnors for “wilful disobedience” of its instructions, ruled that there was “deliberate non-compliance of its orders and this was contempt”. Consequently, the apology and the water release were aimed at rectifying the “error” committed by the Karnataka Government in not obeying the court’s orders and saving itself from stringent punishment that the court would have awarded for contempt in response to a petition filed by the Tamil Nadu Government. The crisis is not yet over as the Supreme Court on Monday directed the Union Government to find out the quantity of water received at the Mettur dam in Tamil Nadu and report to it on November 1. The court observed that on that day it would consider the acceptance of the apology as well as the steps taken by Karnataka to implement its order. Sticking to its adamant and patently indefensible stand — “no release of water, come what may” — this time would have landed Mr Krishna and others into serious trouble. It is said that the Congress high command and legal experts had prevailed upon Mr Krishna not to rub the highest court of the land the wrong way and to comply with the instructions immediately. Clearly, Karnataka’s attitude on the Cauvery water issue in the last three and half months, in particular, was an affront on the established norms of constitutional conduct. Apart from being insensitive to the legitimate grievances of the water-starved farmers of Tamil Nadu, it showed little regard to basic constitutional concepts such as the rule of law and cooperative federalism. There is no denying the fact that Karnataka has its own compulsions in meeting the irrigation requirements of its farmers as also the drinking water needs of the people of Bangalore, Mysore, Tumkur and other cities. However, it should not have closed its eyes to the acute crisis in Tamil Nadu. Its consistent refusal to release water has led to the damage of Kuruvai and Samba crops. Ideally, inter-state river water disputes could best be resolved if the leaders of all the affected states showed a cooperative attitude, maturity, wisdom and statesmanship in their actions. But this was not to be in the case of the Cauvery river waters. Sadly, if Karnataka had been rigid in its approach, Tamil Nadu was exacerbating the problem through vitriolic statements of its leaders, including Chief Minister Jayalalithaa. Had Mr Krishna risen above petty party considerations and released water, he could have avoided the unnecessary humiliation. His contention that there was tension in Mandya district and that any decision on water release would lead to a law and order problem was exaggerated, but not entirely wrong. About 600 people were arrested in Mandya on Monday for showing their resentment on the release of water to Tamil Nadu. Of late, the rationale, legitimacy and propriety of judicial intervention in the actions of the executive are being questioned in some quarters. It would, however, be ideal if the three pillars of the Constitution — the legislature, the executive and the judiciary — discharge their functions in their respective spheres. |
A study of the Chinese miracle-II What were the distinguishing steps that transformed China into an economic power to be reckoned with? The salient ones were: *
* The population growth currently in China is 0.7 per cent. In India it is 1.9 per cent. Labour force growth in India during 1994-2000 was 2.3 per cent. In China it was 1.2 per cent. Employment growth in the same period in China was 1.8 per cent while in India it was 0.9 per cent. Thus, while the population growth rate is less than half of India’s China’s employment growth rate is double. * The Chinese have been assiduously working on human capability build-up for the past 50 years. Historically, they have spent more than double than India has as percentage of GDP on health and education. We are yet to realise that literacy is the first step to people’s empowerment. Had we appreciated that, we would have paused and considered that to only double our spending on primary education from the present 1.5 per cent of the GDP to 3 per cent, which means an expense of Rs 30,000 crore, the sum we cannot mobilise when we spend Rs 1,50,000 crore per year on non-merit subsidies. * In the early seventies the Chinese had started to appreciate the need for a deep and resonant domestic market if they were to become economically strong. To develop this segment they had to be extremely competitive. And to achieve this they had to resort to large volumes. In the process, their manufacturing became highly productive and competent. It is no surprise, thus, that 85 per cent of their total exports are manufactured based on labour intensity. Almost 30 per cent of the world’s manufacturing today takes place in China. Despite claiming a spending class of 200 million we have a very shallow domestic market. We have also tried to replace agriculture’s share in the GDP by that of services. Labour laws and the licence raj guaranteed that our manufacturing will neither be extensive nor world class. It is not surprising that industry in India has seen negative employment generation in the last five years. * Chinese savings rates have been in excess of 36 per cent for the past two decades. Despite garnering a total foreign direct investment (FDI) of $ 395.46 billion in the past two decades (which is 10 times of what India received) and currently being the second largest
recipient of FDI in the world, FDI is only 20 per cent of the total investment made by China. Eighty per cent of capital investment has come from domestic savings. To achieve 8 per cent growth we need a domestic saving rate of 32.6 per cent. Our current rate is 23 per cent of the GDP. And with the quality of our current economic performance it simply cannot grow, much less grow dramatically, for domestic savings rate cannot increase. Given our labour laws and infrastructure, FDI may not land here in the quantum we need. * From the sixties onwards, the Chinese laid a heavy emphasis on investments in infrastructure. This lead to not only immediate employment but also satisfy the Chinese impulse to build it which became a launching pad for the economy’s subsequent take-off. China’s net investment in infrastructure today is nine times that of India’s. * At the core of China’s economic miracle and reduction of poverty to less than 4 per cent of the population is the massive upsurge of rural industrialisation. By 1987, the rural industry had surpassed agriculture as the dominant source of the total rural income. One of the most abject failures of Indian planning in the half century is the country’s failure to take industry to the countryside. * Surprisingly, it was the Chinese bureaucracy which was the harbinger of state corporatism that helped usher in the reforms. After Mao’s death the implication for reform of the Chinese economy was that a powerful bureaucratic constituency had little interest in market-oriented reforms. After all, if enterprises responded to the market rather than to the state, what role would ministries play? The communist systems were thought incapable of reform. But once again the Chinese pragmatism took over. Most unexpected was the role the local communist officials played in industrialisation in general and rural industrialisation in particular. The rapid take-off of China’s rural industry was the result primarily of local government entrepreneurship. China laid the foundation of reforms by installing a new breed of far-sighted, well-educated officials eager to serve the interests of reforms. The achievement of targets brought them incentives. Their ascent on the political ladder and their compensation depended on how many people they employed, how much taxes they paid to the Centre, how much FDI they got. In 1980 tax reforms under a negotiated system of fiscal contracting, localities were given incentives to increase tax revenues to the Centre. The more revenues localities sent to the Centre the more they could keep for themselves. The retained revenues became the symbols of officials’ ability, resourcefulness and power. This spurred local officials who generally came from that area to develop the local industry and raise greater revenues. Ultimately, this movement, started only in the late seventies, was to change the face of the Chinese economy. * The Chinese were very clear in their minds that they were to ride out of their poverty by creating employment opportunities. And that they could do by taking industry to the village and making their manufacturing highly competitive. In order to achieve that, they had realised, as early as the late seventies that labour laws would have to be flexible to ensure that matters of recruitment of labour and its exit were, within bounds of human reasonableness, left to the employer. In the third plenum of 1978, the Chinese replaced class struggle with “socialist modernisation”. In the 4th constitution of 1982 the Communist China incorporated conducive labour laws and provided for performance-based remuneration for public sector and state employees. It is because of this that they create 20 millions new jobs every year even now. It is because of quality infrastructure labour laws and disciplined and willing workforce that China is poised to host 40 per cent of the world’s total manufacturing by the end of this decade! But even now we often forget Deng’s belief that poverty is not socialism. For 18 years we have been discussing reforming labour laws and devising an exit policy. Is it any wonder that we create annually less than half the jobs China creates while we generate every year, because of higher population growth rate, double her workforce? Occasionally, one tends to hear claims that India is catching up with China and given our governmental system, we are doing fine. This only breeds complacence. The fact is that we are not catching up with China. We are getting behind with each day of inaction, lack of resolve and aspiration deficit. Most of what has been pointed out above as China’s achievements is replicable in India without requiring a draconian government. But for that we need to act.
The writer, a business leader, is a keen observer of economic growth in different parts of the world. |
Beware of the dangerous liaison “Keep off the blonds” was among the instructions to the Indian pilots participating in the joint air exercises with the US air force at Agra this week. Our staff, it was widely reported, were also told not to invite the other side to their homes or the mess. This was part of the drill to prevent undesirable personal liaison between our middle-level defence staff and their US counterparts during the joint exercise. “Cope India-02” at Agra has been one of a series of such joint Indo-US defence liaisons at the operational level from the beginning of the year. Recently there have been some controversy about the Indian naval ships providing escorts to the US vessels. Just before “Cope India-02”, there has been another joint exercise in Alaska where our defence personnel worked shoulder-to-shoulder with that of the USA. Now we have the largest-ever combined show - “Malabar Exercise” - in the Arabian Sea off Cochi involving about 4,000 personnel. From our side we have a destroyer, a frigate, a tanker, a submarine and maritime patrol aircraft. There is nothing unusual about joint defence exercises with friendly countries. We too have undertaken such manoeuvres in the past. These are expected to provide greater expertise and new experiences to both sides. Though joint exercises are always symbolic of the growing defence cooperation, the participating countries invariably take ample precaution to preserve their integrity during the liaison. It is not a question of the ‘blonds’ alone. Even in weak countries with a patron-client relationship, joint defence moves with the big brother had led to dangerous liaisons with fatal results. Hence we have elaborate conduct norms to be followed by the personnel at different levels while mixing with the outsiders. The courtship with the USA has to be viewed in the background of a series of “opening up” in sensitive fields from the beginning of the current year. They include formal regular exchange of intelligence between the agencies of the two countries. The USA has opened a formal setup in Delhi for the purpose. Officials of the two sides are in constant touch with each other. It is claimed that the new arrangement has helped track down some important terrorist networks. The Indian side asserts that the liaison with the USA has been highly beneficial to this country and it is perfectly security-proof. However, security experts with past experience have reservations. India has a record of defence and intelligence exchanges with a few selected countries for about 45 years. It had reached the peak after the Sino-Indian border clashes in 1962. Those days there have been regular swap of information about the movements across the border. Intelligence personnel had then undergone training abroad, including the USA. Incidentally, under Indira Gandhi, who had at critical junctures challenged the US might, the process got a boost. A retired Cabinet secretariat official reveals how Indira Gandhi had encouraged intelligence exchanges and cooperation even while keeping a tight vigil to avert double crossing by unscrupulous bureaucrats. She had straightened up the manual and introduced a system of cross watch on those dealing with the sensitive job at different levels. Each case of cooperation had to be done after her clearance. Another safeguard was that all such exchanges should be only through the RAW which was made responsible for keeping a tab on the involved officials. A regular record of the exchanges was kept and brought to the notice of the Prime Minister. Every special task needed specific directive and regular reporting with every detail. Those involved in the intelligence cooperation with foreign agencies were aware of the big brother’s strict watch on their acquisitions, foreign jaunts and kids’ study abroad. If what the official says is true, despite all such safeguards the CIA had been able to penetrate at the senior levels of RAW and the IB in 1980s and 1990s respectively. This was mainly due to the failure on the part of the officials concerned to observe the rules. From all accounts, the increased intelligence liaison with more and more friendly countries seems to have led to an alarming situation. Over the years, the old norms for tighter vigil have been diluted. The structural changes that have taken place at the level of political leadership have made it worse. Atal Behari Vajpayee had begun with a fairly strong PMO. For some time it looked his office functioned as a nodal centre for all crucial decisions. There has been better supervision and coordination among the ministries on important issues. The weakening of the PMO as part of a patchup with the RSS leadership (the latest target being Brajesh Mishra) has demoralised this crucial office. Under the circumstances, it is not in a position to exert control on such sensitive operations the way Indira Gandhi, and to an extent her son, had done. Stability of a government is an important factor and Vajpayee does have this advantage. But the continuing fraternal challenge to his authority has taken away much of this advantage. L.K. Advani is more agile and alert, and could have undertaken such tasks in a more authoritative manner. But his patronising style and the weakness to trust those coming with right presentations often make him overlook the crucial points. Insiders cite cases where the bureaucracy has taken advantage of such long rope extended in good faith. Also, even if a Prime Minister acts decisively in such matters, his tasks are made difficult by the coalitional limitations and pulls and pressures from his own RSS parivar. We have a government whose decisions even on railway zones are determined by NDA politics. When bureaucrats with the right connection could get away with professional lapses there can be compromises on effective surveillance. The dovetailing of defence and intelligence with the USA began as an over reaction to the sanctions against India following the Pokhran II. First the BJP government displayed its extra-patriotism by challenging the West and then began capitulating to the tilt. Both the defence and intelligence exchanges began when Jaswant Singh, who is charged with being pro-US by the RSS outfits, was looking after External Affairs as well as Defence. It was when the government was smarting under the notion that a changed USA would simultaneously fight India’s war against Pakistani terrorism. Accordingly, we hastily offered all assistance to the USA before realising the bitter truth that the latter had its own strategic plans vastly different from that of India. Even Jaswant Singh had failed to convince his colleagues about the commonality of the strategic interests. On the other, the USA has been quietly expanding its influence among India’s neighbours. Within the RSS parivar those who view US intentions with suspicion, cite the latter’s tendency for increased interference. Recently, it tried to put pressure on the government to buy aircraft for Indian carriers from the US firm. The US envoy in Dhaka has warned the government against delaying a port project by a private American firm. Chittagong Mayor M. Chaudhury even alleged that the USA had offered him money to tone down the anti-port movement. All this is straws in the wind. The present coalitional atmosphere of laxity and the increasing aggressiveness on the part of the lone super power call for a tighter vigil over security interaction with others.
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The gas and Russian secrecy — as usual President Vladimir Putin leads Russians in a day of mourning on Monday with his people asking how more than 100 hostages were killed by mystery gas used to knock out Chechen guerrillas holding them in a Moscow theatre. A failure to identify the gas — and claims that it was a drug similar to general anaesthetics used in routine surgery — also helped reinforce a long-standing image of Russian secrecy and disinformation. Dr. Peter Hutton, head of Britain’s Royal College of Anaethetists, said he knew of no medical anaesthetic gas that could have been used in the way the gas was used in Moscow. “It’s almost certainly something that’s developed, owned, and used only by the military,” he said. Paul Beaver, of the London-based security and defence consultancy Ashbourne Beaver Associates, said the operation would be considered a success in military terms, defined as fewer than 30 percent casualties. But he said most military gases have antidotes and it may have been a flaw in Russian planning that they launched their attack without making sure they had enough antidote on hand to treat all the hostages for poisoning. He was backed up by Lev Fyodorov, President of a Russian chemicals security pressure group, who said troops failed to give an antidote to those affected by gas when they were still in the theatre, or once they had dragged them out onto the street, or even when they got them to hospital. Moscow’s top anaesthetist, Yevgeny Yevdokimov, made clear that doctors had been hampered by the fact that they did not know what gas they were dealing with.
Military nerve gas or
BZ? Moscow’s chief anaesthesiologist, Yevgeny Yevdokimov, said the gas used was a “narcotic substance basically similar to a general anaesthetic in surgery”. One Western security expert speculated, however, that it could have been a military nerve gas. Seltsovsky said 117 hostages had died during the siege, including a woman shot dead on Wednesday while trying to escape the theatre. He said 115 captives had died from “the effects of the gas exposure”. “As you increase the dose, then naturally bodily disfunctions occur,” Yevdokimov told a news conference. “First of all comes loss of consciousness, then problems with breathing and blood circulation,” he said, adding that he did not know the name of the gas. There was no immediate reaction from the Kremlin to the doctors’ statement. The unidentified chemical was so powerful that the Chechen suicide fighters who had been filmed during the siege toying with detonators attached to explosives strapped to their waists had no time to set them off. London-based security expert, Michael Yardley, said he believed the gas used was BZ, a colourless, odourless incapacitant with hallucinogenic properties, first used by the USA in Vietnam. He said the symptoms displayed by the hostages in Moscow — inability to walk, memory loss, fainting, heartbeat irregularities, sickness — all pointed to BZ. According to the US Army the side effects last 60 hours, Yardley said. Reuters
Was the terrorist leader a pawn? Movsar Barayev, the leader of the 50 Chechen gunmen who was pictured shot dead on the floor of the Moscow theatre, takes the answers to the most pressing questions about the siege with him to the grave. A 24-year-old warlord who reportedly took over command of his late uncle Arbi’s Islamic regiment, he was part of a new generation of Chechen fighters prepared to take any life, including their own, to achieve their goals. Russian security forces have called Barayev a `pawn’, and suggested that weightier negotiations for the release of the hostages have been held `abroad’ in recent days. It has been suggested that he acted purely as a front man for a former Information Minister for the Chechen republic, Movladi Udugov, who is considered an opportunist who harnessed himself to the Islamist cause and has been financed from Saudi Arabia. Putin has already claimed connections between the theatre gunmen and the `international terrorists’ behind Bali and 9/11. The substantial financing needed for such an operation came from abroad, Moscow insists.
The Guardian |
It is a good sound maxim that men should be fairly matched in love and war. If a lion were to kill frogs, will anyone speak well of him?
* * * There are multitudes of people in the world who are given to hearing and uttering pleasant speeches. But there are few, my Lord, who care to speak and listen to words that sound unpleasant to the ear but are most salutary.
* * * Though the clouds rain nectar upon it, the bamboo neither blossoms nor bears fruit; so the heart of a fool learns not wisdom though he may have a hundred Brahmas for his teachers.
* * * To die with one’s face to the foe is the glory of a warrior.
* * * Sons and riches, wives, houses and kinsfolk come and go in the world time after time but not a real brother.
* * * Doom does not strike anyone with uplifted rod. All He does is to rob a man of piety, strength, reason and judgement.
* * * Angad says to Ravana: A follower of the left-handed shakti cult, a man given over to lust, a miser, a grossly foolish fellow, a destitute beggar, a man in disgrace, a very old man, one who is always ill or always in a passion, an enemy of Lord Vishnu, a foe of the Vedas and the saints, one who is self indulgent or given to slandering others and he who is thoroughly vicious — these fourteen are no better than corpses even while they live.
* * * Just ponder and see.... Moths are infatuated enough to burn themselves and donkeys carry loads, but they are never called heroes.
* * * The Lord is capable of making a blade of grass into a thunderbolt and again a thunderbolt into a blade of grass. —Shriramacharitamanasa, Lanka Kanda |
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As stated above, it is the Chinese ability to appraise, adapt, adopt and implement to reach their desired goal that saw them take momentous decisions in weeks and months that we have taken decades to arrive at. One can count at least a dozen cathartic moments in the last 50 years of their history that shaped their destiny. We can think of only — the three adoptio of the Soviet model of socialistic growth, the Green Revolution and the economic reforms of the early nineties.