Saturday, March 31, 2001, Chandigarh, India |
Death to
Kyoto pact Building
safety into system |
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Uma
Bharati and cricket ABOUT a fortnight ago India notched up a hat trick of triumphs in cricket, hockey, and badminton. However, the wonderful domestic cricket Test series between India and Australia pushed into the background Gopichand's All-England badminton title and the hockey team's discovery of the golden touch in the Prime Minister's Hockey Gold Cup tournament in Dhaka.
How to
strengthen relations with USA A low
Defence Budget compared to GDP ratio
Debt
trap and the signing of CTBT
Alarming
drop in female ratio in Punjab
|
How to strengthen relations with USA AN exchange of views of much importance to Indo-American relations for at least the next four years is going to take place shortly. This will be at the meeting in April between Mr Jaswant Singh and Mr Colin Powell. Both leaders are close to their chiefs. That makes the meeting important beyond a routine exchange. On personal level, both have been soldiers. Soldiers on their own do not believe in fighting. They can be comrades in arms if they click. India must prepare well for this meeting. It is going to lay a long-term impression on the policy-maker in Mr Colin Powell. For that Mr Jaswant Singh, already well-versed in American ways of give and take, would do well to know who he is dealing with. The meeting will be a new experience in a fresh political setting for the Indian Minister. He would, of course, know that Mr Colin Powell will be different from Ms Madeline Albright — as chalk is from cheese. Ms Albright had a link with India. Her father, a Czech diplomat, had been on one of the United missions in Kashmir. Mr Powell has no such association with India. In his autobiography, “My American Journey,” which also takes in the world, India is not even mentioned. Nor Pakistan. So much the better. Mr Jaswant Singh should experience a new world of diplomacy and strategy in Mr Powell. While discussing the American Administration and trying to have links with it, we should not have exaggerated notions of what we can hope to achieve with President Bush. India does not have an overpowering influence on America. Nor is the American President all the time concerned with what is happening in India or how India and Pakistan conduct their relationship. To take one example, the USA is far more concerned with Palestine and Israel. India and Pakistan do not have the same importance on American thinking. America has numerous other concerns. The Indian subcontinent has only a marginal importance in America. There has been some change in this after India and Pakistan became nuclear powers. The world interest is to see that they do not go to war. That is what concerns America the most as the only superpower. We should see that today’s America, unlike some earlier administrations, does not swallow the Pakistani line on Kashmir. For the rest India should be confident enough to stand by its positions. One of the most glaring aspects of our relationship touches on what kind of advice the American President receives from those who help him frame his policy. President Clinton became a darling of the Indian government and people during the closing years of his presidency. During his first presidency, the American Administration created a harrowing period for India. Many in this country would get up in the morning wanting to find out what the U.S.A. had done to India during the past 24 hours. A very unreliable relationship developed between the two countries. There would almost always be something to shock India. In one of his early speeches at the United Nations, President Clinton mentioned Kashmir as one of the flashpoints of danger while at that point things seemed to be changing for the better. Separatist leaders from Kashmir felt emboldened to come to Delhi and call on American and Pakistani diplomats hoping that they would not only get a hearing from them but would also project their viewpoint to Washington. This looks like a simple legitimate wish, but if we know the history of separatist movements we will realise what kind of signals this would send to those who wanted to put India in the wrong. Worse was the periodical stories that would come out of the USA by way of replies President Clinton routinely sent out to Pakistani lobbyists who sent him letters against India. President Clinton’s proforma replies with the stamp of his signature, which showed that he had not even read the reply, were projected as endorsing those complaints. Headlines would appear saying that President Clinton wanted India to correct its ways in Kashmir. These would be taken to mean President Clinton as endorsing the separatists’ views. Worse happened like the statement by an official of the State Department questioning the legitimacy of the Instrument of Accession between Kashmir and India which is the bedrock of the link. There was a howl of protest in India. The US Administration could do nothing because the fountain of this “mischief” was the Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs, Ms Robin Raphel, a former staff member in the US Embassy in India and a one-time classmate of President Clinton. In the years she spent in the subcontinent she came to have a great dislike for India. This reflected in the drafts of letters and speeches the State Department would send to the Oval Office. These routine drafts, transformed into speeches and letters, created many controversies, so much that the view was expressed that India had better relations with the earlier Bush (Republican) administration than with the Clinton (Democratic) government. Ms Robin Raphel could get away with the murder of Indo-American relations and she did it until someone in the US Administration — in routine or design — thought that it would be more useful to America’s diplomacy if she was kept out of the way. She was posted as Ambassador to an African country where her Kashmir obsession lay low. Almost instantly, relations with India improved. This is how great powers sometimes unfortunately conduct their diplomatic businesses. How come this happened?” It happened because there was no one in the US Administration looking into the finer points. If there was anyone, it was Ms Robin Raphel herself who was already prejudiced against India. We should remember this. The lesson is that the American leaders and bureaucracy should be well informed about India and we should always be on the alert. That is why the coming meeting between Mr Jaswant Singh and Mr Colin Powell is important. What are the issues the two old soldiers are likely to discuss? Kashmir, of course, will come in. So also the broader relations between India and Pakistan. The recent statement of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mr Kofi Annan, has come timely. It should carry Mr Colin Powell’s endorsement. The respected Kofi Annan has made India’s task easier. He told Pakistani journalists that the UN resolutions on Kashmir were not self-enforcing like those which related to East Timor or Iraq. The resolution on Kashmir needed the cooperation of the parties concerned for their implementation. This endorses India’s position. The USA is concerned about nuclear weaponry and this would be stressed. On terrorism, the Indian and American positions are almost the same. Mr Colin Powell would, of course, be interested in promoting economic cooperation. He has said, “everything I observe affirms my belief in free enterprise. It creates new wealth, generates new jobs, enables people to live good lives, fuels demand and triggers fresh enterprises, starting the cycle all over again.” This perhaps is what drove him to Republican policies. Soon after retirement he made it clear that he was a Republican. There was widespread demand that he should be made the President. The Republicans thought that the only person who could defeat President Clinton for the second term was Mr Colin Powell. But he refused to join the presidential race. In his autobiography he has referred to it. “I am constantly questioned about my own future: specifically, am I going to run for President” I am flattered by my standing in public opinion polls. I am moved by the encouragement to run that I hear as I travel around the country. I am honoured by the grassroots draft movements that have sprung up on my behalf though I have no personal connection to them. To be a successful politician, however, requires a calling that I do not yet hear.” Would he be a candidate next time after the baptism he has gone through in the State Department? Mr Jaswant Singh would do well to know what kind of a host he will have in Mr Colin Powell. For his guidance he has given a list of the rules which govern his life. These can also be useful for individuals. The first is” “It
isn't as bad as you think. It will look better in the morning.” Another is “Get mad, then get over it.” The other rules are: “Avoid having your ego so close to your position that when your position falls, your ego goes with it. “It can be done! “Be careful what you choose. You may get it. “Don’t let adverse facts stand in the way of a good decision. “You can’t make someone else’s choices. You shouldn’t let someone else make yours. “Check small things. “Share credit. “Remain calm. Be kind. “Have a vision. Be demanding. “Don’t take counsel of your fears or naysayers. “Perpetual optimism is a force multiplier.” The autobiography is important as it reveals “the story of a black kid of no early promise from an immigrant family of limited means who was raised in South Bronx and somehow rose to become the National Security Adviser to the President of the USA and then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.” And now America’s chief negotiator. The writer is a well-known political commentator. |
A low Defence Budget compared to GDP ratio THE allocation for defence in the Union Budget-2001-2002 indicates that the government is satisfied with the security situation and happy with barely sustaining the post-Kargil modernisation of the armed forces. However, modernisation is still far behind because of bureaucratic hurdles and the lack of integration and coordination between the armed forces and the Ministry of Defence. The increase as shown in the budget is not actually a hike in the allocation. It clearly reflects that a significant amount was unspent — Rs 4,000 crore in the last fiscal — because several defence contracts could not be clinched, which is quite alarming. The Finance Minister, Mr Yashwant Sinha has made a nominal hike in the defence allocation by Rs 7,538.58 crore to Rs 62,000 crore for the fiscal 2001-2002. What is significant is that the revised estimates for 2000-2001 turn out to be Rs 54,461.45 crore, marking an increase of a little over Rs 4,000 crore from the budget estimate of Rs 58,587 crore. Of this, 75 per cent of the unspent amount was apportioned from last year’s outlay. The overall increase of Rs 7,538.38 crore in the defence budget works out to be 13.7 per cent as compared to the huge 28.2 per cent increase in the fiscal 2000-2001 due to the Kargil war. When adjusted against inflation, the increase works out to only 8 per cent. This shows that the hike in the defence budget is marginalised — 2.6/2.7 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — and represents a marginal increase of 0.02 per cent over the allocation in the current fiscal. “More money will be given to defence services in the supplementary budget. We pruned the budget size because the Services were unable to spend the money last year”, a top PMO official involved in budget-making remarked. There was no point in giving the Services more money when they were unable to spend it, he perhaps meant to say. Defence finance experts, however, say that so long as India is building military capital, the increase in the defence budget should not be caviled at. However, in this budget, the increase will barely be able to neutralise inflation. What is needed, they say, is a serious overhaul of the defence procurement system which creates delays in the purchase of equipment and hence cause funds to be returned. In GDP terms, therefore, India’s defence outlay is significantly lower than the money spent by China and Pakistan on defence. While Pakistan’s defence budget stands at $ 2.8 billion and 4.7 per cent of its GDP, the Chinese outlay is estimated at $ 15 billion which is more than 3 per cent of its GDP. Citing “drastic changes” in the international military situation, China announced plans to raise defence spending by 17.7 per cent this year, and to continue heavy construction spending to support economic growth. Chinese Finance Minister Xiang Huicheng said a large share of the $ 17.07 billion military budget, which analysts feel represents only a portion of the total defence spending, would go to increase salaries and improve weapons technology. Mr Xiang said the close to 20 per cent increase, much higher than the 12.7 per cent hike in 2000, was needed “to adapt to drastic changes in the military situation of the world and prepare for defence and combat, given the conditions of modern technology, especially high technology”. The People’s Liberation Army is the world’s largest military with 2.5 million troops. The budget also reflects the cost of divesting the army of its vast commercial empire. Mr Robert Karniol, Asia Pacific Editor of Jane’s Intelligence Review said the actual spending was thought to be up to five times the official budget. The defence budget on the whole, does not mark any sharp increase. There is no major hike in research and development (R&D) funds, but a convoluted “significant increase” in the defence capital outlay. The government has raised the capital outlay for the Army under the head “Other Equipment” by Rs 741.16 crore. With this, the prospects of the clinching a deal for the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) may brighten up. The Indian Army, as usual being the largest of the three Services, got the lion’s share (56.28 per cent) of the defence budget with a 5.64 per cent hike. However, with the T-90 tank deal already clinched despite the controversy over its utility in Indian conditions, the Army will not be able to purchase its long outstanding self-propelled gun, which is very much needed. Allocations for the Navy has been enhanced from Rs 8,214 crore in the current fiscal to Rs 9,138.82 crore. This translates a hike of only 3 per cent after accounting for inflation. The Navy’s share of the total defence outlay stands at 14.74 per cent. Although the Navy has been waiting for the government’s nod for the purchase of Admiral Gorshkov, the Russian aircraft carrier with MiG 29 K fighters on board, the defence budget holds out no promise of the deal coming through in the immediate future. This does not augur well for the Navy. The Budget shows a modest increase of about 6 per cent in the R&D category, which is not enough. The Rs 3,518 crore allocated for this purpose constitutes a mere 5.6 per cent of the defence budget. An analysis of the Finance Minister’s proposals reflects a greater focus on the modernisation of the IAF and, to some extent, on the Army. The allocations for the Navy will only maintain the status quo in terms of the force levels. The defence outlay for the IAF has been hiked from Rs 11,300.92 crore in the current fiscal to Rs 15,172.72 crore, representing a 24.3 per cent jump. This means the purchase of long outstanding Advanced Jet Trainers (AJT), mid-air refuellers, and air defence equipment may finally come through, especially when MiG 21 crashes are frequent and it needs to be phased out. However, the then Defence Minister, Mr George Fernandes, expressed satisfaction at the defence budget while describing it as the best in 50 years. “It will help us keep up the pace of the weaponry upgradation and modernisation drives in the armed forces”, he said. This is a usual statement from the Defence Minister, because he gave a similar statement last year too even when there was a substantial increase, owing to the Kargil war which forced a replenishment of equipment and routine modernisation. Another major feature of defence expenditure is a sharp drop of almost Rs 500 crore in allocations for defence ordnance factories. Against Rs 580.38 crore last year, the allocation this year is only Rs 80.62 crore, suggesting that the Defence Ministry proposes to push ahead a plan to invite private sector participation in this sector. This is one of the reasons why Rs 4,000 crore remained unspent because of the rigorous procedures in the procurement of the defence equipment. The Finance Ministry has acceded to the demands of the armed forces to grant full income-tax exemption on a host of special allowances drawn by them retrospectively from May 1, 1999. These allowances, which are not perquisites, were specifically granted to meet the expenses exclusively incurred by the army personnel deployed in difficult terrain, including hilly areas. Men of the armed forces engaged in counter-insurgency operations in Jammu and Kashmir and the North-East too are entitled to one such allowance. The writer is a retired Colonel and defence analyst. |
75 YEARS AGO Haji Mahomed Akbar Khan, Consul-General of Afghanistan in India, is on a visit to Calcutta. In a press interview the Consul-General said that Afghanistan was making rapid strides in industrial development. In the city of Kabul there had been erected and were in course of erection large iron works, woollen mills and an arms factory, and in the process mining was very marked of late. Progress was also being made with the building of the new city about 12 miles from Kabul, which will be known as Darul Honan. Imposing structures, much on the lines of those in New Delhi, were contemplated. The Consul-General added that some important discoveries of pre-history remains had been recently made in
Turkistan. |
Debt trap and the signing of CTBT IT is becoming clear that a nearly bankrupt Government of Pakistan will be paying a heavy price for its past follies. The fiscal crisis is forcing the government under Gen Pervez Musharraf to sign, as per the dictates of Western powers, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). This may happen next month. Most newspapers that covered the meeting General Musharraf had with his corps commanders and economic advisers in the middle of March, noted that the government would have to sign on the dotted lines. One has to read the assessment made by Jane’s defence weekly regarding some strategic advantage Pakistan has gained vis-a-vis India in the matter of nuclear capability. It is said to be one up. Now General Musharraf may argue that signing the CTBT would in no way affect Pakistan’s nuclear advantage over India. Sanctions may be lifted, more funds may flow and the military regime can dig its heels further. This is one reason why he has started saying that he needs neither to quit as Army Chief at the end of his tenure next year nor has the military regime to honour the directions of the federal court to hold elections by March, 2002. What a wonderful proposal concerning the CTBT. Pakistan is in deep trouble, although this is no reason to gloat for those who dislike it. More than 50 per cent people are mired in deep poverty. Educational levels are too low, 70 per cent women are illiterate. Half of the population does not have a proper drinking water facility, and sickness and disease are widespread. Afghanistan is another drag. The presence of over a million refugees and drugs and arms trafficking only add to its woes. Worse, religious fundamentalism provides fire to violence. It is indeed a deadly mix that would not allow democracy to take roots. Pakistan can no longer sustain itself on a hate India campaign or by sending militants to Kashmir. Some people like Mr Ayaz Amir have been speaking out such thoughts in Dawn, the Pakistan Times, Pakistan Today, etc. General Musharraf — who has already held meetings with this Cabinet colleagues and more importantly with his Debt Reduction and Management Committee members — declared that he would go by their advice. His earlier opposition is no longer valid. Fiscal crisis and sanctions have isolated the government. Dr Parvez Hassan, Chairman of the committee, has declared that signing of the CTBT was the only way out. What are the cold facts? The country’s internal and external debt is a staggering $ 60 billion. Pakistan must immediately have $ 10 billion — $ 6 billion as a soft-term loan and $ 4 billion to get out of the immediate trouble. Dr Hassan’s assessments based on his talks with the G-7 countries was that unless Pakistan signed the test ban treaty, none of the major donors would come to its rescue. While Germany and Britain were backing efforts to lift the sanctions and help Pakistan come out of this serious fiscal crisis, Japan was insisting that Pakistan must sign the CTBT first. This hampered any favourable decision, Dr Hassan maintained. In his report, the committee Chairman did not raise the question of signing the CTBT, but made pretty clear when he presented the case before the Cabinet. The consensus was to sign on the dotted lines. To give it a different cloak General Musharraf has now begun talking to experts and other opinion makers, including journalists. He would be holding meetings with some selected politicians and get their tacit approval. Given the political scenario, it may just not be difficult. But some voices of protest and dismay at the way foreign policy issues, including the handling of the fiscal problem and the nuclear question, are being handled are already being heard through the mainline papers. A question uppermost in the minds of most commentators is that this signing of the CTBT would bring only a temporary relief. How about the long-term measures to come out of the debt trap, regain the partly lost sovereignty and remove poverty and ignorance. And does its present involvement in Kashmir and Afghanistan help it in anyway? There is no clear answer from the establishment that includes the army, the civil administration, politicians and the maverick jehadi theologians. |
Alarming drop in
female ratio in Punjab THE world has moved into the 21st century. There is a new vision and a new environment. But little has changed in the attitude of the people of Amritsar, Faridkot and Bathinda districts of Punjab towards the girl-child. Just as it was done historically, in contemporary Punjab the female child is doomed in these districts. For over a century these districts have recorded an adverse male-female sex ratio. The only difference is that earlier there was female infanticide. Now through virulent use of technology there is induced foeticide. The grossness of the new technology is the most visible in Bathinda district. Its impact is reflected equally grossly in the birth records maintained by the Civil Hospital, Bathinda. The latest figures made available for child births in 1999 by the Civil Hospital, Bathinda (compilation of 2000 is not completed yet) are an eye-opener. There remains an adverse female sex ratio in every single month of the year. There were a total of 6107 male and 4547 female births in the urban areas and 8360 male and 6195 female births in the rural areas. The ratio in rural and urban areas was near equal. The total male births was 57.4 per cent in urban areas versus 57.3 per cent in rural areas. Female births in rural areas was 42.5 per cent versus 42.6 per cent in urban areas. In other words education has had little influence on people’s decision to terminate female foetuses. Statistics also reflect that abortion of female foetuses is happening consistently in the district. The Civil Surgeon at the Bathinda hospital, Dr Bawa Ram Gupta could count 40 ultrasound clinics on his fingertips. A majority of them are on Mall Road and Goniana Road. These clinics are doing such roaring business that even doctor-wives of government doctors have now joined the race of setting up sex determination clinics. Ultrasonography remains the most popular method of sex determination here. Though new technologies have been added. XY sperm separation technique is the latest technology in vogue here. The technique enables parents to select a child of their choice. The Central Government enacted The Pre-natal Diagnostic Techniques Regulation and Prevention Act in 1994. Two years later, in 1996, the Punjab Government implemented it. The need arose because tests like Amniocentesis which were meant to detect genetic disorders began to be misused for determining began to be misused for determining the sex of the foetus and aborting the female. Despite the legislation the grossness has only increased. Precious little has been done to implement the law. Doctors have been doing a roaring business because they cater to a clientele which has nursed a mindset against having a girl-child for over a century. Only reasons have changed. First there was fear that invaders will violate the modesty of girls. Then they wanted to eliminate the girls because law provided them equal share and the landed did not want fragmentation of land between the daughter’s in-laws and the sons. Now in a small sized family norm there is no place for the girl child. As a result increasingly the female is doomed at the foetal stage. The fallout of such practices hit one like an ominous foreboding in Jeeda village. Even after driving nearly half a kilometre into the village the girl-child was conspicuous by her absence. The cacophony of noise by little boys rent the air as they ran through the bylanes. But there were no girls among them. If this remains the pattern time will not be far when the district will be plunged to old times. Just over half a century ago a bride’s family had to be given a dowry to marry a boy here because there were no girls. They were killed as soon as they were born. Girls were scarce, therefore, in most families only the eldest son got married. Bhagwan Kaur has no qualms in telling the truth that no one wants a daughter. She quotes a traditional saying to explain the people’s point of view: “Dhiyan wale aut jandge/puttan waleyan de jagan ge diye” (The one who have daughters will die without carrying on the family name/the light of those who have sons will continue to burn). The Scheduled Caste women are forthcoming on reasons. Explains Surjit Kaur of Jeeda village: “If upper caste women go on giving birth to girls, their men remarry. Mother in-laws call them names like ‘Dhote khuran wali’ (woman with white feet which means an ill omen) or as someone responsible, for “Rs 5 lakh decree” against the family. “Decree” because at least Rs 5 lakh would have to be spent on the wedding of a girl hence the monetary “loss” to the family. Women naturally don’t want to go through such a torture. The way out, says Angrez Kaur of Gillpati village, is that: “the government should take stern action against those taking dowry. Things will change.” Pratap Singh, a former sarpanch of Gillpati village, goes on to explain that “earlier the expense on a girl’s marriage was anywhere between Rs 2 lakh and 3 lakh. Now there is an expense of around Rs 15 lakh. First we raise a daughter then spend Rs 15 lakh on her wedding. Where do we have this kind of income from land now.” There are others who explain that the growing consumer market has promoted greed among the groom’s family. A groom’s family today expects a wedding to be held in a “Palace” (A banquet hall). In addition they want all consumer items from a refrigerator, television, car and even cash. And still says Balwant Kaur of Sibia village: “In-laws treat a daughter-in-law like a blank cheque which can be encashed any time. You may give any amount of money and still there is no guarantee that your daughter will be treated well. Out of such circumstances people do not want girls”. The situation is getting from bad to worse in the last decade or so. Earlier at least the first conception was accepted — whether it was a boy or girl. If the first child was a girl the mother was definitely taken for a Pre-natal Sex Determination Test (PNSDT). Most women now say that they do not want a girl at all. If the first child is a boy the family still insists for a second male to make a “jora” — a pair. This has permeated to some extent among the lower castes also but a lesser number among them resort to foeticide. They also find the cost of PNSDT high. Surjit Kaur has three daughters. But she doesn’t think her daughters are a burden on her. Primarily because among them a wedding of a daughter costs only Rs 2000 to 3000 she says. Besides, a majority of the Scheduled Caste families eke a living out of agriculture labour jobs. More working hands means more money. Surjit Kaur finds her girls an asset merely because: “We rear cattle. They are a great help in handling cow dung or household work.” Travelling through the villages of Bathinda district in one village after another Jeeda, Gillpati, Sibia, Jhumba, Kheta... it was the same story. An increasing number of women from landed families abort female foetus. The worst is that women are not only aware of PNSDT but they also approve of it. Women say that when “Nagpal” — Dr G.S. Nagpal who has an ultrasound clinic on Mall Road in Bathinda — introduced the “facility” about 10 years ago hand bills were distributed in their village. Today women repeat the slogans given by the doctors: “Better to spend Rs 1000 now than Rs 5 lakh later” in justification to their going in for sex determination tests. The clinics actually draw a dual benefit. A PNSDT takes place between the 14th and 16th week of pregnancy. Government hospitals do not carry out an MTP after 12 weeks. Therefore women have to rely on the termination or pregnancy also on the private clinics who charge for PNSDT and MTP a sum of Rs. 4000- Rs 5000. In case of X-Y separation the cost is even higher. The success rate is only 70 per cent for couples wanting boys. Thus often couples go back to the doctors three to four times and pay anywhere between Rs 15,000 and Rs 20,000 just to have a boy. Over the years a well oiled network has developed to promote businesses of ultrasound clinics. According to Mr Raj Kumar, a clinical psychologist, and a Voluntary Health Association of India’s Bathinda representative, the local registered medical practitioners act as PROs to generate business for private clinics in the city. There are nearly 150 RMPs in the city alone. There are 8 to 10 “RMPs” in each village. There are 250 villages in the district. This means that roughly there are nearly 2500 RMPs in the district who are the veins and arteries of the flourishing ultrasonography clinics. As a doctor said on condition of anonymity: “It is a pure demand and supply business. Because there is demand such clinics are proliferating.” This holds serious consequences of male-female ratio imbalance. The common man is not concerned with it. Says former sarpanch Pratap Singh: “ap bacho jo houga dekha jaoga” (save yourself, whatever the consequences we’ll see). In such a situation only more stringent implementation of law may help to bring a change. For female foeticide is not merely an issue that impacts the adverse sex ratio but percolates to other areas of female well-being. Their access to good food, education and health care. Above all it raises concerns about increasing misuse of medical technology as well as violation of medical ethics. |
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