Wednesday, January 31, 2001,
Chandigarh, India





E D I T O R I A L   P A G E


EDITORIALS

Earthquake economics
T
HREE crippling weaknesses of Indian society have once again surfaced in the earthquake aftermath. One, the pathetic dependence on the bureaucracy for virtually everything. Two, although India lives in its villages, the system thinks of them only in times of a major calamity or crime.

Netaji controversy again
T
HE 104th birth anniversary of Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose on January 24 as usual went beyond paying tributes to the nation’s greatest freedom fighter. A Japanese doctor who attended on Netaji has been quoted as having said that the chief of the Indian National Army died on August 18, 1945 within hours of the plane crash in the jungles of Formosa.



EARLIER ARTICLES

The world responds
January 30
, 2001
Mother earth as killer
January 29
, 2001
The Kumbh mela — a tradition that lasts
January 28
, 2001
Wheat man’s burden
January 26
, 2001
Pressing on with peace
January 25
, 2001
VVIP as a pilgrim
January 24
, 2001
For the sake of Samjhauta
January 23
, 2001
Ayodhya — blowing cold
January 22
, 2001
PANGS OF THE PARTITION
January 21
, 2001
THE TRIBUNE SPECIALS
50 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE

TERCENTENARY CELEBRATIONS
OPINION

Dealing with Bush Administration
The CIA analysis provides a new road map
by G. Parthasarathy
A
S New Delhi ponders over the perspectives, preferences and prejudices of President George W. Bush and of his key foreign policy advisers, some indication of current American perspectives on global developments has been provided by the CIA itself. In a report entitled “Global Trends 2015” the CIA has come out with a detailed analysis and assessment of major global and regional developments and challenges in the first 15 years of the new millennium.

A defining moment of our times
by Rahul Singh
O
NE evening last week, I was surfing my TV and chanced upon a press conference being held in Baghdad, Iraq, by that country’s Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz. It was being shown “live” on the CNN channel, for the very good reason that the day happened to be the tenth anniversary of the start of what has become known as the Gulf War, though it was code-named by the Americans as “Operation Desert Storm”.

TRENDS AND POINTERS

Bulimics more apt to binge in morning, when alone
E
VERYONE craves a bag of potato chips, a bowl of chocolate icecream or a juicy steak from time to time. But for people with bulimia nervosa, these cravings can trigger a cascade of reactions that culminate in a binge of thousands of calories, researchers report.


ANALYSES

Bhuj quake: will lessons be learnt now?
by P.D. Sharma
E
ARTHQUAKES send shivers down the spine of every human being. Seismology’s power of prediction has failed. India has paid very little attention to earthquake prediction which can reduce the damage through even common-sense precautions. Our governments are guilty to the extent that they have not paid any attention to the observations of international experts on seismology.

Hoodwinking in name of security
by Pritam Bhullar
I
N India, the public and parliamentarians know very little about their armed forces. This is because a tight lid is kept on almost all defence issues under the pretext that it has to be done in the interest of national security. This policy is neither in the interest of the armed forces nor is it in the interest of the country.



SPIRITUAL NUGGETS




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Earthquake economics

THREE crippling weaknesses of Indian society have once again surfaced in the earthquake aftermath. One, the pathetic dependence on the bureaucracy for virtually everything. Two, although India lives in its villages, the system thinks of them only in times of a major calamity or crime. That is why four days after a killer earthquake destroyed dozens of villages no help, not even food, has reached some of them. Three, despite a spontaneous outpouring of sympathy and readiness to help, coordination skill is sadly lacking. To take the last shortcoming first, two teams of doctors rushed to Gujarat on their own; the one from Mumbai carried a portable generator and other surgical equipment and the Delhi team comprised specialists from the reputed AIIMS. The first returned after two days since no one directed the members to where their service was required. The Delhi team is rendering “advanced first aid” for want of electricity and basic surgical material. This is stunning since hospitals are overcrowded and the first part of rescue operation is to help the injured. What the Gujarat government has done is to airlift the injured from Ahmedabad city to Mumbai and Pune for medical care. Now about villages. An NGO team from Chennai, with impeccable experience in dealing with emergencies, rushed to Bhuj uninvited only to find that relief supply will just ignore the villages since the drivers of the trucks and clerks escorting them had no idea that people, real people, once lived there and still live staring at the rubble. The bureaucracy by its training and professional requirement relies on past precedents for guidance. The file-pushers, even if the work is done these days on computer screen, have lost their creative urges a long time ago. But a calamity calls for a very quick response and flair for innovating. NGOs are good at this sort of thing but they are suspect in government eyes. As a result, the victims of natural disasters suffer some more. One way to get over this was demonstrated by Andhra Pradesh some years ago. Village level Telugu Desam workers took over the relief work when a destructive tidal wave hit the coastal region. They knew the area and the people, in turn, trusted them. When the state government asked the party workers to prepare themselves to receive the Prime Minister they protested and the government politely told the “Telugu bidda” to stay in New Delhi and allow the people to concentrate on relief work.

Now about earthquake economics. The country, not just Gujarat, will need about Rs 15,000 crore to rebuild all those houses which have crumbled. And the Centre has to fund it, since even the government of a rich state cannot find this amount from its own or private sources. Union Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha has dismissed reports of a Gujarat surcharge as “speculation”, and not a baseless rumour. He should rethink the issue and for once generate a feel good factor by asking tax payers to do their bit to make Gujarat stand on its legs. He is not likely to do this since he is averse to owning up ideas not his or his Ministry’s. The alternative is to ask for a massive loan from the World Bank (WB) and the Asian Development Bank. It could be as much as $ 5 billion and the WB team scheduled to visit the state soon will have no difficulty in clearing it. This money, about Rs 22,000 crore, carries a very low interest of less than 2 per cent and the repayment time is 30 years with a grace period. This huge funding can be used to pay compensation to the dead and the injured with a stipulation that it should be spent on rebuilding the houses. Villagers can be given interest-free loans and urban dwellers asked to pay 7 per cent interest which is half of the normal bank charges. If HUDCO is deeply involved, the mammoth rehabilitation programme will be over in a year. India can do it and should do it! 
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Netaji controversy again

THE 104th birth anniversary of Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose on January 24 as usual went beyond paying tributes to the nation’s greatest freedom fighter. A Japanese doctor who attended on Netaji has been quoted as having said that the chief of the Indian National Army died on August 18, 1945 within hours of the plane crash in the jungles of Formosa. The statement attributed to Dr Taneyoshi Yoshimi, who was a Captain in the Imperial Japanese Army during World War II, instead of “ending” may actually revive the controversy surrounding the circumstances of Netaji’s death. Why has the doctor, who lives in northern Japan, broken his silence 56 years after the plane crash in Formosa? It is likely that the report is based on the interview he gave to British intelligence after the air crash. However, why has the transcript of the interview been released now through the media in London? In effect, British intelligence did not deem it necessary to take the Indian leadership into confidence even after Independence. Dr Yoshimi’s account makes it clear that Netaji died of severe burn injuries and that the Indian leader did not leave behind a verbal last will or statement with the Japanese interpreter whose services were requisitioned for helping the doctor communicate with the patient. One can understand the immediate “emotional factor” behind the campaign launched by his followers that the INA leader had actually survived the crash. One can also understand the reason why Jawaharlal Nehru as first Prime Minister of India allowed the controversy to remain alive. Had Netaji been alive Nehru’s election as Prime Minister may not have been unanimous. In any case, the political factors for keeping alive the mystery of Netaji’s death in the plane crash in Formosa have become irrelevant today.

Union Home Minister Lal Krishna Advani, for reasons which only he can explain, decided to set up a new commission of enquiry for getting at the bottom of the Netaji death controversy. And now the issue before the Ministry of Home Affairs is whether to release the classified information on the subject or persist with the hare-brained policy of keeping it away from public gaze in the “national interest”. Even the Mukherjee Commission may not be shown the entire set of papers relating to Netaji’s ill-fated plane journey. It is doubtful whether political considerations would allow Mr Advani to heed to the sane advice of winding up the Mukherjee Commission because all the facts which could be dug up are now part of the reports of the earlier commissions of enquiry. It must be realised that keeping alive the controversy 56 years after the plane crash actually amounts to insulting the memory of one of the greatest sons of India. The need of the hour is to revive Netaji’s legacy of selfless service to the nation. The ideals which inspired him to set up the INA are as relevant today as they were when he asked fellow Indians to “give me blood and I will give you freedom”.
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opinion 
Dealing with Bush Administration
The CIA analysis provides a new road map
by G. Parthasarathy

AS New Delhi ponders over the perspectives, preferences and prejudices of President George W. Bush and of his key foreign policy advisers, some indication of current American perspectives on global developments has been provided by the CIA itself. In a report entitled “Global Trends 2015” the CIA has come out with a detailed analysis and assessment of major global and regional developments and challenges in the first 15 years of the new millennium. Policy makers in South Block and elsewhere would be well advised to scrutinise this study if they are to respond effectively to Washington’s perceptions and policies in coming years. The report assumes added importance as it has been prepared in consultation with a number of foreign policy experts and institutions, including such non-proliferation warriors like Joseph Nye and Jessica Mathews.

Outlining the situation in South Asia the report concludes: “India will be the unrivalled regional power with a large military including naval and nuclear capabilities and a dynamic and growing economy. The widening Indo-Pakistani gap — destabilising in its own right — will be accompanied by deep political, economic and social disparities within both states”. The report predicts that despite challenges posed by growing regional disparities in India, with the Northern States remaining relatively backward and dependant on subsidies and social welfare grants, and challenges posed to traditional secular values, Indian democracy will remain strong. The main challenges the country will have to confront are those posed by population growth, environmental degradation and shortage of essential resources, including water. It has been stressed that with the largest English speaking population in the developing world, India is poised for rapid strides in high technology-led growth, and significant progress in information technology and key sectors like pharmaceuticals.

In the eyes of the CIA, India’s role is not going to be confined merely to the subcontinent, as some of our more myopic foreign policy pundits advocate. The CIA feels that given New Delhi’s suspicions of China, India will look increasingly to the West. It sees the emerging dynamics of power in Asia being fashioned by emerging equations between the USA and China, China and Japan, and India and China. The report also notes that India would continue to build up its ocean-going navy to dominate the Indian Ocean transit routes used for delivery of Persian Gulf oil to Asia. Gen Colin Powell had also recently spoken of India’s growing role in the Indian Ocean region. It is important that South Block takes careful note of these assertions as it seeks to engage the new Administration. What needs to be done is to devise strategies to engage the Bush Administration in evolving a new partnership that would extend at least from the Straits of Malacca in the east to the Persian Gulf in our west. India must not belittle itself by an excessive focus on India-Pakistan or subcontinental issues alone. Issues like cooperative approaches to energy security need to be focused on in detail.

The CIA analysis has some very candid comments about Pakistan and Afghanistan. It asserts that Pakistan will not recover easily from decades of mismanagement, divisive politics, concluding that our “Jihadi” neighbour will become more “fractious, isolated and dependant on international financial assistance”. It predicts that further domestic decline will benefit Islamic radicals and most significantly suggests that this could well alter the makeup and cohesion of the Pakistan army, which it states “was once Pakistan’s most capable institution”. It predicts: “In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil, the central government’s control will probably be reduced to the Punjab heartland and the economic hub of Karachi”. The report envisages that the turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan will spill over into Kashmir and other areas of the subcontinent. It is interesting that in comments made before she formally assumed office National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice stated that South Asia is “a region that has many problems, that has a Pakistan encountering severe problems of internal control. You think about Afghanistan which is essentially not a state” and other Central Asian states and “you have a kind of arc of crisis that we could use India’s help in managing”.

It appears clear that the USA now acknowledges the strength and resilience of India’s democratic and pluralistic society and institutions and is concerned about the growing turmoil to our west and at the economic and strategic uncertainties to our east. The CIA report notes that as India accelerates its economic progress, neighbours like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal will be drawn closer to and increase their economic interdependence with India. But for this to happen, New Delhi will have to develop a coherent and long-term strategy of enhancing economic cooperation both bilaterally and sub-regionally with these neighbours and showing an increasing measure of understanding of their concerns and aspirations. We should certainly learn to be more generous in trade-related issues and developmental cooperation with countries in our neighbourhood, in whose stability and economic progress we have a vital stake. While our “Look East” policies have shown commendable success in the past decade, we need to develop a similar framework for cooperation with the countries in the Gulf and Central Asian regions.

It would be naive to imagine that our relationship with the USA is going to be smooth and trouble free in coming years. The CIA report notes that the threat of an India-Pakistan conflict will overshadow all other regional issues for the next 15 years. It would be unrealistic to presume that the USA is going to be unconcerned about this scenario. Rice had recently observed: “Before one thinks about (removing) sanctions, it would be helpful if India is more forthcoming about its plan for nuclear development. What precisely it sees as the end game. A promise not to weaponise further and so on and so forth”. Thus, while the CTBT may not be a source of continuing friction, differences on nuclear-related issues are bound to continue. Washington would naturally have concerns about the impact of our nuclear policies on the security environment of its NATO allies.

Given President Bush’s firm commitment to building a national missile defence system, it is obvious that there are going to be continuing uncertainties on how China will respond. Thus, if we do not know what the “end game” of China and others is going to be, will we be in a position to spell out our own “end game”? In any case, it must be reiterated to the new Administration that given our wider security concerns there can be no question of our linking our nuclear policies merely to what Pakistan does or does not do. We should point out that whether or not the composite dialogue process with Pakistan commences, we are prepared to finalise and implement nuclear risk reduction measures and other CBMs with our increasingly dysfunctional western neighbour. Al Gore was regarded as something of a “fundamentalist” on nuclear non-proliferation and environmental issues. But New Delhi is going to inevitably encounter problems in dealing with the Bush Administration on issues of climate change and the Kyoto Convention also, especially as and when the USA seeks to defend itself against charges by its own allies that it is insensitive to global environmental concerns.

The assumption of office by the Bush Administration provides us a unique opportunity to put our relationship on a new and enduring footing. But, we will have to remember the American saying that “it takes two to tango”.

Nothing can be achieved or gained if either side shows a lack of sensitivity to the security and economic concerns of the other.

Hopefully, our coming engagement with the new US Administration will be conducted comprehensively and frankly, so that we can deal with each other free from the prejudices and mistrust of the past.
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A defining moment of our times
by Rahul Singh

ONE evening last week, I was surfing my TV and chanced upon a press conference being held in Baghdad, Iraq, by that country’s Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz. It was being shown “live” on the CNN channel, for the very good reason that the day happened to be the tenth anniversary of the start of what has become known as the Gulf War, though it was code-named by the Americans as “Operation Desert Storm”.

Memories came flooding back, because that war was one of the defining moments of our generation.

It was amusing to hear Aziz refer to the “aggression” of the Allies — comprising mainly the USA and Britain — against his country. No mention of Iraq’s brutal — and entirely unprovoked — invasion of hapless Kuwait, which led to the Gulf War!

Iraq’s dictator, Mr Saddam Hussein, imagined that he could overrun and take over a small but oil-rich neighbour, which had no army worth the name, without the rest of the world bothering about it. Argentina, then ruled by the army, tried to do same with the Falkland Islands, which belonged to Britain (the Falklanders did not want to be a part of Argentina, just as Kuwaitis did not want to be part of Iraq).

Both Argentina and Iraq, thinking they could get away with it, were in for a shock. Britain under the no-nonsense Margaret Thatcher, immediately sent ships and soldiers thousands of miles across the oceans and routed the Argentinian troops. I applauded.

In the case of the Gulf War, the Americans and the British unleashed their latest weapons, including “smart” bombs that were able to pinpoint their targets with devastating effect. The war became a testing ground for state-of-the-art weaponry.

After the Iraqi air force was destroyed, the Iraqi forces became sitting ducks.

It was the first war fought virtually by remote control, by computers and hi-tech missiles. The combatants rarely saw each other. Is that good or bad? I am not sure.

The Iraqi army was annihilated and the carnage was terrible. It could not have been a pretty sight. Strangely enough, in this era of great communications, those horrible sights were not shown to the world.

Nobody has come out with a figure of exactly how many Iraqi soldiers died, but it must have been hundreds of thousands. Add to that the two million or so killed in the eight-year war with Iran in the 1980s — another war that was caused by an equally unprovoked aggression by Mr Saddam Hussein, who thought he would gain an easy victory and extra territory — and you have a nation that has been devastated by the dictatorial whims of one man as probably no other nation has since Germany under Hitler.

The Allies lost just a couple of hundred troops in contrast, many of them by “friendly fire”! The Gulf War has to be one of the most lopsided battles in history. And Mr Saddam Hussein called it the “mother of all battles”. Some mother, some battle!

The Gulf War was also when the CNN came into its own, its correspondent in Baghdad providing “live” minute-by-minute coverage to an enthralled world audience. TV news has grown from strength to strength since then, even in India.

But the Western media did not exactly cover itself with glory in the Gulf War. The American authorities cleverly succeeded in keeping the media away from where the main carnage was taking place. They did not want the war, with all its brutality and suffering, to come into the cosy drawing rooms of the American public, as had happened in Vietnam. They wanted to destroy the Iraqi war machine without any distractions or brakes being put on them.

Perhaps there was an element of overkill, especially against the Iraqi troops retreating from Kuwait. Iraq had surrendered by then and those troops were completely defenceless and in full retreat. But, then, these were the very troops responsible for the invasion of Kuwait and they committed terrible atrocities on the Kuwaitis, including rape, murder and looting.

When they left, they set all the Kuwaiti oil wells alight, covering the sky with a dense smoke that did not lift for several weeks. There were also the hundreds of thousands of Indians trapped in Kuwait who had to be airlifted out of the country and into India by the biggest airlift India has ever undertaken.

Talking about India, diplomatically, we came out very poorly in the conflict. New Delhi did not protest Iraq’s aggression against Kuwait. On the contrary, the then External Affairs Minister, Mr Inder Kumar Gujral, later to become Prime Minister, flew to Baghdad and was seen on TV and in the papers embracing Mr Saddam Hussein!

That was a shameful gesture which shocked the civilised world and it took place under the inept Prime Ministership of Mr Chandra Shekhar. We had our reasons, certainly, for supporting Mr Saddam Hussein, or at least not antagonising him. A great deal of Indian investments in Iraq were at stake.

But there are times when economics has to be sacrificed at the altar of principle. This was one of them. New Delhi preferred expediency to principle.

There were those who felt that the Americans should have taken the Gulf War to its logical conclusion and got hold of Mr Saddam Hussein, forcing his resignation at least, if not his demise. The opposing view that such matters are best dealt by the Iraqis themselves and should not be imposed from outside prevailed. I think that was the most sensible attitude.

But the mystery remains: how come a man who has led his country to two absolutely disastrous wars, killing close to three million of his countrymen, while bringing utter humiliation and economic ruin on his nation, still remains in power? I find that quite baffling. 
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Trends and pointers
Bulimics more apt to binge in morning, when alone

EVERYONE craves a bag of potato chips, a bowl of chocolate icecream or a juicy steak from time to time. But for people with bulimia nervosa, these cravings can trigger a cascade of reactions that culminate in a binge of thousands of calories, researchers report.

In a study of 15 bulimic women, investigators found that eating alone, giving in to a food craving, and eating in the morning increased the risk that a meal or snack developed into a binge.

Succumbing to a craving while alone was more likely to occur in the morning. A night time craving was less likely to result in a binge, the report indicates.

“The most important (and novel) finding is that binges are more likely to occur in the context of a combination of environmental and food-related variables,” according to Dr Anne Waters, from the University of Southampton in the UK, and colleagues.

Their study is published in the January issue of the International Journal of Eating Disorders.

People with bulimia consume extremely large amounts of food and then purge the calories by vomiting, using laxatives, and performing extreme exercise.

The bulimic women in the study, who recorded their daily food intake and cravings over a 1-week period, reported a total of 80 cravings in that time. About half of these developed into binges.

According to Dr Bill Friedrich, a psychologist who specialises in treating eating disorders, the findings support previous research into situations that trigger a binge. He said that using a diary to record food intake, the context in which food was consumed, and feelings about food is a standard way for therapists to help patients understand the circumstances that trigger a binge. (Reuters Health)

Drums in the boardroom

A few hundred years ago, in the wilds and deserts and rocky hill places of America, indigenous people would go into the wilderness in search of visions and direction in their lives and to understand their spiritual selves.

Nowadays, you are as likely to meet a senior business executive around the campfire with colleagues on a wilderness quest of their own where they will touch their creativity, build stronger relationships, and seek insights into the vision, philosophy, and future direction of the company they work for.

This is the “new shamanism” of the corporate office and its popularity is growing. Sports and leisure giant, Nike, for example, now sponsors trips deep into the Amazon rain forest for their people to work with ancient shamans who will show them how to “shapeshift” their future and create a new focus for their organisation.

Even scientists, who would have laughed at such an idea until very recently, are now using shamanic techniques to aid the creative process behind research and development. Dr Eve Bruce is a respected plastic and reconstructive surgeon and medical professional working in Baltimore, USA. Three years ago, while vacationing in Ecuador, Dr Bruce found herself plagued by a terrible fever. Her group leader took her to an Andean shaman, who healed her using smoke, chanting, and prayer. The next day she was not only out of bed, and up for a hike in the rain forest. “The experience was beyond the box of my reality,” says Dr Bruce, who felt stunned — and intrigued — by her instant recovery. After studying the art of shamanism during a number of visits to South America, she went on to become the first non-Quechua woman to be initiated into the Circle of Yachaks, the bird-people shamans of the high Andes.

She now uses shapeshifting and other shamanic techniques with her patients in order to help them find that part of themselves they are unhappy with and to change their vision of it before trying to remove it or cover it up with surgery. “Often when people seek a physical change, they want more,” she says. “I can help facilitate change on an emotional and spiritual level.” With the Dream Change Coalition, she leads treks in the Andes and the Amazon. Back home, she conducts workshops on shamanic techniques — dreamwork, psychonavigation, and spirit journeys. “I’ve seen people healed of migraines, chronic pain and depression,” says Dr Bruce. “I don’t think there is any condition shamanism can’t treat.”

Leprosy and vaccination

It is possible to completely eradicate leprosy from India, which has the largest number of people suffering from the disease, if proper vaccination is carried out along with chemotherapy, Prof GP Talwar, founder Director, National Institute of Immunology (NII), has said.

Denouncing the currently practiced strategy of using drugs to control leprosy, Prof Talwar said drugs might not help in eradication of this disease as drugs only kill bacteria but do not increase the immunity of the patients as they face a chance of relapse even after treatment.

He said a cost-effective vaccine called Leprovak developed at NII combined with chemotherapy noticeably accelerates the clearance of multi-bacillary leprosy which forms the reservoir of leprosy patients in the country.

NII developed the immunio-therapeutic vaccine which is supposed to be delivered combine with chemotherapy to shorten the recovery period. This procedure also upgrades the immunity and eliminates the prospects of relapse. (PTI)
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Bhuj quake: will lessons be learnt now?
by P.D. Sharma

EARTHQUAKES send shivers down the spine of every human being. Seismology’s power of prediction has failed. India has paid very little attention to earthquake prediction which can reduce the damage through even common-sense precautions. Our governments are guilty to the extent that they have not paid any attention to the observations of international experts on seismology.

American geo-physicist James. N. Brunes visited India in March 1997. He made a clear-cut observation that there was a high probability of a great earthquake of magnitude 8.5 on the Richter Scale in the northern Indian subcontinent any time within the next 100 years. He warned planners, engineers and contractors involved in the building of dams and houses in areas above the Gangetic plains in the north. He predicted that damage expected after such great earthquakes would be much more devastating than in normal cases.

Brunes spoke of ground motions and seismic hazard for shallow angle thrust faults and observed that earthquakes would occur due to this fault. Such a fault releases great amount of energy compared to other types of faults. In this fault there is a compression of the earth’s crust while in others there is tension. Such earthquakes can affect over 1,000 kilometres.

Brunes further observed that such great earthquakes are caused by the convergence of tectonic plates with a convergence rate of 15 to 20 cm per year. If this reaches about 6 to 12 metres a big earthquake is triggered. The previous big quake occurred in 1255 AD and a similar one is expected within 100 years.

Recent earthquakes like that in Quetta (Pakistan), Latur (Maharashtra) have been cited as signals before devastating earthquakes. Even Tehri Dam may not be safe in such an eventuality. Earthquakes are fuelled by the strains that build up as the earth’s dozen or so tectonic plates jostle with one another for space. Nowhere does this happen as ferociously as round the Pacific rim. The “subduction zones” where the thinner Pacific plate is forced beneath the thicker continental land mass account for three-quarters of the world’s seismic energy. This is a massive ring of fire — a 40,000 km band of seismic activity that sweeps up the west coast of South and North America, Japan, China and then down to Philippines and Indonesia.

The biggest earthquake in recent years occurred in China in 1976 which claimed 2,40,000 lives. The great quake of Japan in 1923 caused a loss of 1,42,000 lives. The other earthquake zones, which accounts for 15 per cent of the earth’s seismic energy is a belt stretching west from the Bay of Bengal across the Himalayas to the Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean. An earthquake occurred in Lisbon falling in this belt which claimed 60,000 lives in 1755.

A common way of measuring the magnitude of an earthquake is the scale invented in the 30s by Charles Richter. The Richter Scale is logarithmic. An earthquake of 7 on this scale is greater than magnitude 6 by 10 times. The biggest quake was the one recorded in 1933 on this scale at 8.9 in Japan. The Richter Scale does not represent the proportionate loss. For instance, the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco and in Alaska (1964) both registered around 8.3 on this scale. The damage in Alaska was 100 times more than that in California. So this scale was modified. A large magnitude does not necessarily translate into proportionate loss. Much depends on the local geological conditions.

An area on top of unstable sand or clay is likely to be shaken much more than some other place at the same distance from the epicentre but on granite.

Special precautions are needed for quake-prone zones. Devices are provided to help buildings survive earthquakes. One is a damper unit which is similar to a car shock-absorber. Another is to isolate the building from the ground with thick rubber pads.

Countries having quake-prone zones have uniform building codes updated annually and published worldwide every three years. Such codes focus mainly on the safety of the building occupants and emphasise on factors such as resistance to fire and structural failure. The higher the seismic activity the tougher the building regulations. In seismic belts regular official guidelines are issued for protection against earthquakes. Some governments have even lowered property taxes and insurance premiums in quake-prone areas. Incentives are also given to upgrade old buildings.

With the increasing frequency of earthquakes we have to learn lessons from the countries which have taken such precautions. In India people care less about the structure of the building and spend much more on decoration. This chart shows some of the major earthquakes.
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Quake-Chronology 

Date  Place  Toll  
1803  Garhwal  200 die
April 4, 1905   Kangra valley (Himachal Pradesh), 8.0 magnitude 20,000 die
July 8, 1918  Assam, 7.6 magnitude  
July 2, 1930  Dhubri (Assam), 7.1 magnitude  
January 15, 1934  Bihar and Indo-Nepal border, 8.3 magnitude 10,000 die.
June 26, 1941  Andaman islands, 8.1 magnitude.  

October 23, 1943 

Assam, 7.2 magnitude.  
August 15, 1950  Assam, 8.5 magnitude  532 die
July 21, 1956  Anjar (Gujarat),  7.0 magnitude.  
December 10, 1967  Koyna (Maharashtra), 6.5 magnitude  
January 19, 1975

Kinnaur (Himachal Pradesh),6.2 magnitude

 
August 21, 1988  Bihar and Indo-Nepal border, 6.5 magnitude. 1000 die.
October 20, 1991 Uttarkashi (Uttar Pradesh), 6.6 magnitude. 1500 die.
September 30, 1993  Latur and Osmanabad (Maharashtra), 6.3 magnitude

  7928 die

 

May 22, 1997   Jabalpur (Madhya Pradesh),  6.0 magnitude.  40 die.
March 29, 1999  Chamoli (Uttar Pradesh), 6.8 magnitude.  150 die.

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Hoodwinking in name of security
by Pritam Bhullar

IN India, the public and parliamentarians know very little about their armed forces. This is because a tight lid is kept on almost all defence issues under the pretext that it has to be done in the interest of national security. This policy is neither in the interest of the armed forces nor is it in the interest of the country.

Ironically, in Parliament, the annual Defence Budget is passed without any discussion. Compare this with the USA and the western countries, where a detailed discussion is held on the defence budget for a few days before it is passed. No wonder then that every war we find ourselves caught in a cleft stick due to our poor equipment. Besides, most of the important defence projects such as the main battle tank (MBT), advanced jet trainer (AJT), light combat aircraft (LCA) and the aircraft carrier, to name only a few, have been delayed for more than 10 years because of lack of discussion on them in Parliament, resulting in the government moving at a snail’s pace to accomplish them.

Because of the public and parliamentarians being in the dark, about the structure of the defence forces, their problems and defence issues, they are unable to conduct any meaningful discussion on them. The result is that there is only one opinion on all defence issues and that is of the government which is based on the thinking of the bureaucrats.

In a democratic set-up, every issue is decided by majority vote. How can the parliamentarians and the public speak for the Army when they know very little, if anything, about it. A few years ago, when the “one rank, one pension” issue came up for discussion in Parliament, most of the parliamentarians were found totally blank about it. This writer still remembers how a few of them were apprised of it a day prior to the discussion. Yet, they could not generate any animated discussion in Parliament.

After announcing at Anandpur Sahib in April, 1999, that “one rank, one pension” for defence personnel had been accepted “in principle”, the Defence Minister, Mr George Fernandes, has conveniently backtracked on it. Surprisingly, not a word has been uttered about it in Parliament nor has our public spoken about it at any forum. This can happen only in democratic India. Isn’t it a mockery?

Some of the Fifth Pay Commission recommendations have still not been implemented. The revised scale of disability pension is one of them on which the Government is still dragging its feet. Not only that, even the recommendation of the Pay Commission that the CDA (pensions) should not effect any reduction in the pension by holding review board at their end, has been ignored.

Nearly 74 per cent personnel below officer rank (PBOR) cannot get 50 per cent of their last pay drawn as pension on retirement. While framing the rules for the Central Government employees, the bureaucrats completely forgot that due to their early retirement, the PBOR cannot complete the requisite length of 33 years of service even after the weightage of five years that is given to them. It is a pity that hardly any voice has been raised against this injustice to our soldiers by the public or parliamentarians.

In India, unlike what it is in the USA and the western countries, there is no public information policy on the Army. Add to this, the hesitation of the senior armed forces officers to divulge anything worthwhile to the media. Most of them do this to hide their own misdemeanours. How can the media disseminate information on defence issues to our public, unless it is taken into confidence and briefed on these issues.

Admittedly, the Kargil coverage reflected better cooperation and coordination between the Army and the media. And the result of this was there for all to see. In this war, since the focus was brought on the war heroes and the sacrifices made by them, much better benefits were granted to the widows of war heroes than ever before. But it would be wrong to say that the coverage was not controlled by the Army, which of course, is considered essential in any war.

Why are some senior officers allergic to the media’s coverage of inquiries and court martial triggered by the Kargil way? Don’t they want the public to know the truth? This attitude clearly shows that they want to hide something. How does the patriotic stature of the Army go down if it becomes transparent?
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SPIRITUAL NUGGETS

Some say Shiva alone is to be contemplated upon; others say Shakti, still others Ganesha, or the Sun. But who shines in these forms art Thyself. Therefore, O friend of the lowly, Thou alone art my refuge.

Not brother, not father, not mother, not wife, not son, not family, not strength none indeed is found a help at all for me. Therefore, O friend of the wretched, Thou alone art my refuge.

— Harisharanashataka-Stotra, 1-2 

****

Thou art our One and the only God.

Yea, the First God, without a peer.

Mysterious, beyond form

and dependent upon Thyself alone.

Thou givest sustenance to all,

O compassionate one, the emancipator,

Immaculate and Sinless,

The mystery within a mystery.

Destroyer of all sins,

and king of kings,

The Cause of all causes,

and the provider of all.

All-mercy, the Giver of sustenance,

The fountain of Grace.

The All-powerful One,

And the Destroyer of all.

Everyone acknowledges Thee, O God,

And Thou knowest and Givest to all.

Permeating everything,

And ever-present all over....

Is there a place without Thee?

Or a grab? O sustainer of all!

O All-death!

— Guru Gobind Singh Ji, Jaap Sahib, Bhagavati Chhand, 107-111, 114

****

O Mother, in this world, in the midst of Thy numerous worthy sons I happen to be a rare specimen of wantonness. Yet O Thou beneficent one, it is one proper for Thee to have abandoned me, Thy child. For, a bad son may sometimes be born, but never has there been a bad mother.

— Adi Shankara, Devyaparadha-kshamapana-stotra

****

A bitter tongue makes life bitter.

— Baba Avtar Singh, Spiritual Sparks
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