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| Friday, December 1, 2000, Chandigarh, India   
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Towards Baghdad again Protecting corrupt cricketers |
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MARXIST
ROAD TO NOWHERE
Disinvestment drive & crony capitalism
Each with his own albatross
Slowdown
temporary: CII chief
SAARC in a deep freeze
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Towards Baghdad again SHEDDING its decade-long coyness, New Delhi wants to revive its old friendship with Baghdad. It will take some time and the complete lifting of the UN economic sanctions before diplomatic ties and economic cooperation touch the cordiality of the seventies and the eighties. But a definite start has been made during the visit of Iraqi Vice-President Taha Yassin Ramadhan. He has talked of a strategic relationship covering trade, technology and rebuilding the war- and embargo-ravaged economy. To begin with, this country will seek counter trade, exporting wheat and importing crude of equal value. It may not be that simple. The UN sanctions prohibit direct business contact but prescribes a cumbersome and demeaning process. Buy oil, pay up to a special committee nominated by the Security Council which, in turn, gives one-third to Iraq to import select items like food and medicine. This naturally rules out a barter deal. But India is eyeing a small loophole in the sanctions itself. It can approach a UN committee for an exemption. For that it has to prove that it stands to suffer enormously and a partial relaxation alone will limit the damage. It is here that the high petroleum prices come in. Food sale is permitted but the question is about the retention of two-thirds of petrol sale proceeds. It appears that India has sounded the UN body and is hopeful of clearance. With improved ties with both the USA and Britain — the only two countries still adamant on keeping the sanctions in place — a request from India is likely to get the nod. A blunt no will be a snub and sour the atmosphere. If the trade approval comes about, this wheat for crude deal will be a double blessings. One, the crude will cost a lot less than the international price and will not need foreign exchange to pay for it. More importantly, it can find a good use for the stubbornly high level of wheat stocks. It is like getting rid of something which has become an embarrassment and getting something so vital for the economy and at a discount. More than the immediate benefits, the long-term prospects are very promising. India has been one of the closest allies of Iraq and contributed mightily to its industrial and social development before the war. That was also the preferred destination of Indian workers thanks to liberal laws and a relaxed attitude towards foreigners. Even today Iraq owes money to Indian construction companies. This country’s experience and warm friendship should lead to lucrative business deals once the curse of sanctions goes away. In fact, the visiting dignitary promised this much. Mr Ramadhan said his country will remember those allies who stood by it during its trying days. And offered a big slice of the contracts in the post-sanctions period. He said the quality of Indian goods is not as high as that of, say, Japanese products but quite good otherwise. A degree of improvement in this department is in order. The simultaneous meeting of the Indo-Iraq joint commission is equally significant. The bunching of the two and the incessant talk of an early end to embargo and India’s gamble in openly talking about a crude for wheat swap deal is as oblique an indication as any that the USA and Britain are finding it difficult to stick to their stand that has wreaked death and destruction across the country. The Delhi developments should help this country to enjoy a headstart in the coming days of rebuilding. |
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Protecting corrupt cricketers IT is more or less official now. The Board of Control for Cricket in India simply does not have the gumption to take action against the players named by the CBI in its report on match-fixing and related malpractices. It would be instructive to go back to the story of Jesus Christ for understanding the murky goings-on in the secretive world of Indian cricket. Jesus stopped a crowd of angry men from stoning a woman "sinner" to death by asking that the first stone should be hurled by the one who had never committed a sin. Had the board taken action against the tainted cricketers it would have amounted to the pot calling the kettle black. There is another good old saying about there being no smoke without fire. The CBI has found evidence of wrong-doing against five players, but the on-going investigation into the bungling in awarding television coverage rights of international tournaments by Doordarshan to favoured parties is likely to lead to the door of some of the board members. The fear of their own exposure is, of course, one of the many factors which prevented the Special General Meeting of the BCCI in Calcutta from recommending punitive action against the tainted players. It can be said now with far greater authority that the top guns in the BCCI are primarily responsible for the stink in international cricket. They did not bother to examine the credentials of the sponsors of some of the major off-shore tournaments because there was enough on the side for some of them. That no action was likely to be taken against anyone of the crooked cricketers became clear on Tuesday itself when immediately after the disciplinary committee meeting in Delhi a senior member of the BCCI, Mr Kamal Morarka, was quoted as having said that the CBI was more corrupt than the cricketers! He later explained that he merely wanted to give a quotable quote to the media. He need not have bothered to explain. A close examination of the sequence of events leading up to the SGM of the BCCI on Wednesday should leave no scope for doubt that the board was never serious about exposing the role of player-bookie network in corrupting the game of cricket. Whatever may be the image of Manoj Prabhakar, the fact remains that he was the first to blow the whistle. Thereafter, more to silence the detractors than set its own house in order, the BCCI asked former Chief Justice of India Y. V. Chandrachud to examine the allegations; and he gave Indian cricket a report of good health. The judge in him did not want to pass a sentence on the basis of unsubstantiated charges. To set the record straight, the CBI has said much the same thing in its report. It has merely put on record who said what about whom during interrogation. The CBI enquiry itself was the result of the Delhi Police tapes of Hansie Cronje's conversation with bookies during the South African team's tour of India in March-April this year. The BCCI may still have dragged its feet in the matter of investigating the involvement of Indian players in betting and match-fixing, but the then Union Minister of Sports, Mr Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa, forced its hands. Where is Mr Dhindsa and Union Minister of State for Sports Shahnawaz Hussain? They were shifted out of the Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports shortly after the much publicised handing over of the report to Mr Dhindsa by the CBI. Why was Mr Dhindsa, who as President of the Punjab Olympic Association, has a better understanding of the factors which make players and administrators enter into corrupt deals, shifted at a time when he had virtually forced the diffident President of the "autonomous" BCCI, Mr A.C. Muthiah, to fall in line. He and Mr Shahnawaz Hussain were shifted because they were inconvenient ministers. For the forces which saw them out of the Sports Ministry protecting tainted players from being banned from playing cricket for life should be easy meat. How does one explain the fact that the CBI enquiry resulted in the report being referred to a former joint director of the same agency, Mr K. Madhavan, who is also the anti-corruption commissioner of the BCCI. His report resulted in the disciplinary committee meeting in Delhi on Tuesday followed by a full house meeting of the BCCi in Calcutta on Wednesday? The official explanation for deferring action against the player, even after the full house meeting, was that members needed more time to study the Madhavan report! A three-member committee has now been set up for doing what in official parlance is called "the needful". Cover-up is too mild an expression to explain the dirty games being played in the name of saving the game of cricket from the taint of match-fixing and betting. |
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MARXIST
ROAD TO NOWHERE WHERE
does communism stand amidst the sweeping thrust of globalisation and
liberalisation? How potent is it in today's changing yearnings and
priorities? As an ideological concept it may still be relevant. But
this is not true in the case of communists and communist parties
keeping in view the way they function. Perhaps, they have played out
their role in history. This is sad but true. Indeed, communism's has
been a mixed bag — more of blunders and less of successes. Mr Jyoti Basu might be holding the record of being the longest-serving Chief Minister in India. But that was not because of his radical achievements, but because of the tight party structure which never allowed dissidents to challenge the leadership. The grand old man of Indian Marxism bhadralog has not left a legacy for which future generations will specially remember him. All the same, he did provide political stability to his state. This surely is no mean achievement. We see the same process in Kerala, where Mr E.K. Nayanar, with no special achievements to his credit, continues to be at the helm because the rank and file are unable to make a proper assessment of his work or worth. In any case, they are too rule-bound to stir up a revolt. The history of communism in India has been a paradox. In a country of abject poverty and sub-human existence, the communist ideology failed to attract even 10 per cent of the population. The poor refused to place their faith in it. In that very paradox lies the answer to why it failed to strike roots in India. It was a failure because it was led by persons who either lacked vision or proper understanding of Indian ethos at the grassroots. India is too complex, too
heterogeneous a nation, endowed with a plural, multi-layered social philosophy and ethics, to trigger a textbook Marxist-Leninist or Maoist-type revolution and bring it to a successful conclusion. There is neither an adequate mass of combustible explosive material nor is there the political will to enact a bloody upheaval. We are basically a statusquoist people who readily compromise with circumstances. With English as the medium of instruction, Indian communists had no doubt all the advantages to be the masters of the Marxist theory. They had access to the entire literature of Europe. China did not have this advantage. When the Chinese Communist Party was established, China had only a few booklets on Marxism. And China knew even less about European thought. Yet the Indian communist movement was in awe of the Chinese Marxists: The "Red Book" of China became as much a Bible in China as in India! Similarly, the Indian communist movement was enamoured of P.N. Aidit (Indonesia) as also of Fidel Castro and Che Guevera (Cuba). The Indian communists failed to produce even one world figure, whereas the Indian "bourgeois" threw up dozens of great personalities like Swami Vivekananda, Sri Aurobindo, Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru and many others. A number of reasons can be cited for this historical fact. The Indian communists were too eager to take orders from Moscow or Beijing. They could never produce an ideology that was relevant to Indian life, to Indian civilisation, to Indian ethos, and to Indian experience. And there is one more significant reason: while the Chinese communists were, first of all, nationalists and were chauvinistic about the "greatness" of their country and its "great" civilisation, the Indian communists were willing to forget India's past. In fact, they often shared the European views on India — that Indian civilisation is all mumbo-jumbo. Naturally, the Indian nationalists, grounded broadly in liberal tradition or the broadbased socialist concept with a human face, grew into giants on the fertile soil of India's past, whereas the communists grew into pygmies in the arid soil which they themselves chose. Ironically, it was often a matter of pride among the Indian communists that they knew so little of India's past. So, when S.A. Dange wrote a booklet on India's traditions, there was surprise among the comrades. However, the question that needs to be asked is: were they good at the history, religion and philosophy of Europe? They were not. For, they dismissed them as "bourgeois", although no one could understand Marxism fully without a proper understanding of European history, religion, philosophy and sociology. So, the ordinary Indian communist was a man with a few slogans, the red flag and little else. He certainly had no pro- per understanding of Marxism. Today Marxist leaders are courageous enough to admit the great "blunders" they committed throughout their history. And they are many in believing that 1) an ideology born of European experience could be transplanted into India without change, 2) in supporting the Muslim League and its two-nation theory, 3) in opposing the "Quit India" movement, 4) in accepting Chinese superiority, 5) in pampering the public sector trade unions without a sense of commitment to the larger social good and 6) in failing to make the public sector a success. It is not surprising if there is no change in attitude at the grassroots level even today. Hardcore Marxists still believe in "revolution" and "violence", knowing pretty well that these cannot deliver the utopia they hanker after. Violence produces violent men, who become impatient with reasonings and arguments. Revolution is change in haste. It fails invariably because not much thinking goes into it. Thus, the Bolsheviks knew practically nothing in 1917 about how to build a socialist society and economy. The Chinese knew even less. And when Mikhail Gorbachev launched his perestroika and glasnost, he knew even less how to unscramble the communist system, not to speak of reconstructing a free society. In the process, the Russian people lost a century and 50 million people. And their suffering was without parallel. Ask a Russian today what he thinks of the 20th century, his answer will be: we started in hope and ended up in despair! Who was at fault? Not communism, although it was not faultless. The failure was human — the failure of communists and the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. In China, the same story was repeated, but the Chinese being more practical (they were less given to intellectual quest), saved the situation. But everywhere else the communist experiments failed. The communists are getting back today to the only other way the world knows: the capitalist way. Of course, even capitalism has to have a human face for the greater good of society. Part of the blame for this Soviet failure must go to the bureaucrats. Lenin had apprehensions about the Russian bureaucracy (one of the worst in the world). But the Chinese went ahead with their mandarins, with what result we all know. And when India took to a "socialistic pattern of society" little did the communists know that the bureaucracy was the enemy of all idealism and that it was bound to destroy the whole effort. What was worse, little did they realise that the worker in the public sector would turn out to be what he was. Today we are winding up every public sector unit because its workers did not have the right leadership to take them on the right path and make it a success. All this is not a one-sided exercise to "damn" the communists. There are good communists and bad communists. We are also familiar with the dark facts of capitalism as well as of globalisation. Besides, we know in what way private enterprises have failed the country. But that is another story. The communist movement was at one time inspired by ethical concerns for man and his destiny. That was its major attraction. But it failed to live up to its promises. The failure was human. "Human errors and failures" are, of course, part of every civilisation. But while we have laws and prisons to deal with "human" failures at one level, we have none to deal with the failures of our rulers. As Gandhi would have said, we need ideologies to reform men. The failure of the communists has been the most conspicuous let-down in history. In the circumstances, can they claim to play a pioneering role in human history? As elsewhere in Europe, Indian Marxists have either become "soft" or are unable to adjust themselves to the new realities. Though they have done well to take to the parliamentary road, they have yet to discover fully their traditional roots. Perhaps they are still waiting for a turn in the political tide. But, as we know, time and tide wait for none. The writing on the wall is clear. Unless they reform themselves and correct their response system, their political base will continue to shrink in the face of new challenges of globalisation, liberalisation and the swadeshi mantra. |
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Disinvestment drive & crony capitalism THE drive for the disinvestment of government equity in public sector commercial and industrial undertakings (PSUs) has developed disturbing features and dimensions. But the stop-go approach of the NDA government on disinvestment has not won kudos for its performance. Step by step disinvestment of government equity in large PSUs is now being combined with and preceded by the transfer of their management to transnational corporations. This is more contentious than even disinvestment in driblets only to raise revenue for the Union Government partly to bridge its fiscal deficit. The privatisation of the management of PSUs is now openly, indeed brazenly, inspired by ideological preferences rather than the criterion of economic efficiency. The disinvestment of government equity in PSUs has been going on since the launching of the economic reforms in India. Together with the withdrawal of budgetary support for the expansion and renovation, disinvestment has debilitated the PSUs. Their vast and valuable assets are now being handed over on a platter to private business interests. Sharp differences have arisen within even the Union Cabinet on the disinvestment policy and procedures. The newly created Disinvestment Department is trying to ride rough shod over the side-step the rights and responsibilities of administrative ministries in respect of PSUs under their charge. It is not just a breach of protocol between ministries. It also undermines the principle of collective functioning and accountability in the Cabinet form of governance. The Disinvestment Department is working too eagerly. It is trying to develop novel methods and modalities to accelerate the disinvestment process. This exposes it as working under the influence of private business interests — Indian and foreign. The sale of Modern Foods under a private arrangement with the subsidiary in India of the Lever Bros, a TNC, confirmed this impression. The Disinvestment Department embarking on a frantic search for a foreign “strategic partner” for Air-India hurriedly appointed a “global adviser” to assess its assets without proper consultations with the Civil Aviation Ministry. The global adviser was so chosen evidently because of its close linkages with TNCs keen to take over the management of Air-India with minimal investment. The disinvestment of PSUs is thus turning out to be extraordinary business deals. This is a prescription for promoting crony capitalism. The choice of strategic partners for the transfer of management and eventual ownership in the process of PSUs’ disinvestment is tending to be highly selective which is bound to have suitable political, social and economic linkages with the ruling elite. The return on investment to be made by the selected “strategic partner” will be enormous by way not only of dividends but also from management control. TNCs are past masters in making the purchases of goods and services by manipulating transfer prices. It is not surprising that the offer of transfer of management control of Air-India with only 26 per cent equity holding has attracted wide interest from a number of competing international airlines. Why should the government hold 40 per cent stake in the equity of Air-India after its management control is handed over to the foreign partner is a puzzling business proposition. A similar move to “privatise” Maruti Udyog is also in the offing. The disinvestment of government equity in PSUs was started gingerly in 1991. But Mr Vajpayee and the ardent economic reformers in the NDA government are now going for the privatisation of all PSUs. It is proposed to sell as junk the loss-making ones to private business corporations — domestic and foreign — already operating in India. The management of big profit-making PSUs is, however, proposed to be transferred to the TNCs which will be the first step for the transfer of their ownership to them. Since Indian private corporations do not have adequate investment resources, technological tools or management skills to manage and run giant PSUs in India, TNCs are being feverishly invited to take over their management and eventually ownership. The scheme of disinvestment of the PSUs has also turned into a shamefaced display of a disconcerting lack of faith and confidence of the political leadership in Indian technology skills and management ability. It too is a loud proclamation to the delight of TNCs that Indian private business enterprises are not relied upon by the NDA government to take over and run large PSUs. The craze to attract foreign capital has evidently become so overwhelming in the ruling elite that the modern industry and services sector developed in the era of planned economic development is being transferred to foreign hands. Self-reliant indigenous enterprise in the development and modernisation of the Indian economy is being ruled out. It is an ironic denouncement for the NDA government to so repudiate its swadeshi commitments. If the targets of attracting massive foreign capital do indeed materialise on the terms and conditions that are being offered to TNCs for the takeover of PSUs, healthy domestic impulses for economic and social advance are bound to be emasculated in India. The desire to attract foreign capital and the introduction of labour displacing technologies and management in the economic growth process are prescriptions for the de-industrialisation of India even as capital intensive business enclaves are transferred to the control of TNCs to exploit India’s natural resources and labour. The privatisation-globalisation process, which is being pushed forward, will not and can not bring down the cost of goods and
services for the mass of the people of India and improve their living conditions either. Only a thin upper crust of affluence may have access to the offerings of foreign investment and imports. There is need for arduous, sustained and integrated efforts to break the stranglehold of foreign interests on the Indian economy and policy. The need is for an alternate policy platform to mobilise domestic resources, material, human and financial, and their optimal utilisation even as foreign resources may be attracted on fair terms to supplement and not supplant domestic effort. It is a deceptive idea that the security and strategic interests of India can be safeguarded and promoted even as the economic and social structures come under the hegemony of the TNCs of the USA and a handful of other developed countries. The Prime Minister, Mr Vajpayee, seems to have been convinced that foreign investment is the only basis for economic growth and modernisation of India. He seems to have fallen for the TNCs’ designs rather than seek indigenous solutions and rely on domestic enterprise for self-reliant socio-economic development of the country. As a professor in the prestigious Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, has said, the strategic sale of PSUs to TNCs has got “intertwined” with the overriding aim of somehow attracting foreign investment that is not expected to flow into India on an appreciable scale on any other basis. The Indian big business interests too have accepted, fatalistically, the overlordship of TNCs and the status and role of compradors. They have ceased to take up the challenging task and arduous enterprise required for building an independent and self-reliant industrial structure in India. The three-year programme drawn up by the Disinvestment Department for the sale of large profit-making PSUs to TNCs in the strategic areas of the Indian economy is a denouement of this process. |
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Each with his own albatross THE celebrated Coleridge poem, ‘‘The Ancient Mariner’’, has for generations held the reader captive almost in the manner of the afflicted mariner holding ‘‘the wedding guest’’ by the coat-button, as it were, pouring out his weird, uncanny tale. A highly symbolic and intriguing poem, what’s relevant for our purposes here is the intensive compulsiveness of the speaker, something bordering on the idea of being possessed. For when one is in the grip of a thought, an emotion or a desire that overtops everything else, and becomes an unbearable weight on one’s heart or nerves or soul — a lapse, or a crime or a sin — the need to unstitch the seams and show the wound or rationalise it takes on an obsessive aspect. The question of communicating and connecting becomes ultimately a deeply human necessity. The doomed mariner of Coleridge’s poem had to carry ‘‘the cross’’ of the albatross that had become his sign of expiation, but, believe me, quite a few of us also have one albatross or another around our neck, and we carry it in one form or another to ease our spirit. I have run into many a little ‘‘mariner’’ with his tale of agony which without derailing the person entirely does become his or her compulsion, a psychic itch. And ‘‘the story’’ in the process nearly always becomes repetitive, colourful, even rhetorical in some cases. And even if the listener, ‘‘a captive’’ of the situation or of the moment finds it distasteful and irritating, he has to, for ‘‘Pete’s sake’’, submit to the tyranny of the tale, real fanciful or transformed. Well, ‘‘the mariner’’ in question is nearly always a neighbour, a relation, an old pal or colleague, and one hasn’t the heart to stop him or her in the tracks when the cataract is in full tide. I trust, quite a few readers of this ‘‘middle’’ must have had some callers or encounters of this kind. In my own situation of long illness and confinement to my own rooms, several such callers who had come to inquire after my health, or about the nature of this obscure affliction, started almost immediately with their own stories of woe ranging, God knows from what to what, though the most obsessive of such recitals were chiefly around the archetypal theme of ingratitude, filial, fraternal, or familial. And since ‘‘the story’’ had become a kind of ‘‘albatross’’, one could understand, even empathise, though usually the monotony of the whole thing precluded real sympathy. And as I have said earlier, nearly all of us are prone to this perversity, some more, some less, the degree varying from person to person. To be able to carry one’s baggage of woes stoically, without making a song or story out of it, or without sharing it with friends, foes or strangers is a very rare virtue, and where true, it inspires a kind of wonder, if not awe. Only the persons with a touch of saintliness, I trust, can make their spirit a ‘‘listener’’ within, keeping the lips sealed or smiling. One has read real-life stories of such souls, and the impressions abide, though sadly, we are unable to draw the moral, our spirit being not equal to the ordeal. |
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Slowdown temporary: CII chief THE
Union Finance Minister, Mr Yashwant Sinha, has presented a rosy
picture of the economy. With inflation soaring, the oil import bill
ballooning and the industrial growth declining, is the optimism
justified. R. Suryamurthy spoke to the CII President, Mr Arun Bharat
Ram, to know his views on the subject. Does the Indian industry also share the same perception about the state of the economy as the Union Finance Minister? Arun Bharat Ram:
There is no doubt that there would be tremendous pressure on the fiscal front because of several factors, including the recent oil crisis. But then CII believes that the economy would still grow by 6.5 per cent this fiscal. With the good monsoons, agricultural growth would also pick up. The slowdown in industry, CII believes is only a temporary phase and with the government determined to undertake several reform measures, the overall demand in the economy would pick up. Industrial production in the country has slowed down significantly. What measures would the CII like to suggest to Mr Sinha to bring it on the right track? Arun
Bharat Ram: CII believes that several short term as well as medium
term measures are required to reverse this slowdown. There is a need
to send a strong signal that revitalisation of the reform process
remains highest on the government’s agenda. There is also need to
quickly get a few projects off the ground to revive demand, especially
in industries like cement, steel and capital goods. The Union Finance Minister has indicated that several pro-reforms legislations would be introduced in Parliament during the Winter session. However, there are apprehensions that the pace of reform is not fast enough. What is the perception of the Indian industry? Arun Bharat Ram: The introduction of legislations like the Fiscal Responsibility Act, a new competition law and new bankruptcy Act among others in the winter session of Parliament would be very welcome. The Fiscal Responsibility Act is one legislation that CII wants to be piloted within the Budget session itself. This is important to rein in the fiscal deficit. Given the diverse nature of our political system with numerous parties in the Centre and States and the pulls and pressures of populism, such an act is necessary for fiscal sustainability. Bankruptcy, insolvency and NPAs are also major worry areas and have serious implications on the health of the financial sector. Among the key areas which need urgent attention is the need to step up investment in infrastructure sector, the need to take speedy action on the privatisation/disinvestment front, reforms in the financial and banking sectors and pension reforms among others. What measure should the government take to prevent flooding of goods especially by China as its accession into WTO appears imminent? Arun
Bharat Ram: The government should initiate a strong anti-dumping
mechanism. This is important by itself, and especially urgent given
China’s imminent accession to WTO. This is also important in the
wake of a marked increase in Chinese imports of not only electronic
goods but also of machinery and other equipment. Is the industry satisfied with the disinvestment/privatisation of public sector enterprise? Arun Bharat Ram: The government should speed up the process of disinvestment. The resistance from administrative ministries and labour should be dealt firmly. The whole process should be totally de-layered. Once the Cabinet approves disinvestment of a given PSU within a time frame, the job of implementing all aspects of the disinvestment should vest in the Ministry of Disinvestment. The support of organised labour should be garnered through a new national restructuring/reconstruction fund. The latent value of excess land of PSEs located in major cities should be utilised. Thirtythree per cent of land sale/re-development proceeds should be earmarked for a fund that finances much more attractive VRS packages through annulties; and finances viable and meaningful re-training programmes for the involuntarily unemployed workers; this fund can be made into a statutory fund to protect its proceeds from being sucked into the Consolidated Fund of India. The Finance Minister has ruled out interest rate cut. Is the industry disappointed with this measure? Arun Bharat Ram: The credit policy of the RBI maintained the status quo on the bank rate and the CRR. While this was on expected lines, CII was hoping for a restoration of the re-finance limits. This move would have provided the much-need relief for industry. Is the country in the path of experiencing balance of payment crisis? What is the way out? Arun
Bharat Ram: India still has a sizable forex reserve position which can
take care of import requirements. Exports of both goods and services
are doing well at present. Therefore, there may not be a major
pressure on the BOP front at present. |
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SAARC in a deep freeze FROM preferential trade to free trade, it is a long and major hop. It looks SAARC will never make it. It is a pity, it has gone into a deep freeze. Some of the SAARC members are getting restive. They want India to make a move. But India cannot help. It is Pakistan which is responsible for the debacle of SAARC. It has hurt the interests of all in the sub-continent. But is SAARC all that important? It is. Apart from other things, it gives strength to South Asia’s negotiations with WTO. But we need not exaggerate the importance, either, for China is not a member of any regional group, and yet has done well in every way. India too can stand alone. India is not a major exporter of commodities because it has a huge domestic market. It exports only a small fraction of its production. So, SAARC is of only limited use to India. Nations form economic associations mainly to carve out larger-markets. But India has already the second largest market in the world. The compulsion to export is, therefore, not as pressing as, say, in the cases of the USA or the UK. But SAARC intra-regional trade is only 3.4 per cent of the SAARC nations’ total trade. SAARC exporters are keener to export to the West as that yields them better profits. As for intra-regional investment, it is only about 1 per cent of the total investment in the region. Compare this with ASEAN and EU investment: 43 per cent of ASEAN investment is intra-regional and 64 per cent in the case of EU. It is quite evident that SAARC is not of much use of its members. So, shall we dismantle it? No. Its potential is great. Even today, trade within the SAARC region is not negligible. India’s total trade turnover with South Asian neighbours in 1997-98 touched Rs 6,872 crore, of which export accounted for Rs 5,898 crore. To this is to be added the enormous smuggling rackets within SAARC. But India’s regional trade is only 2.5 per cent of its total foreign trade. This is indeed not much. Worse, India’s imports amounted to a mere Rs 972 crore. This great imbalance is the cause of much concern. No doubt, the situation has improved of late. The small countries are exporting more to India. But there is reason to make a thorough study of exports, for as long as all countries produce the same products there is no scope for increased trade. Be that as it may, the imbalance can be corrected only by joint ventures with buy back arrangements and infrastructural developments. There is no other way. The task is onerous. The small countries must initiate these steps to overcome their-problem. The greatest benefit of a trade association is that it can become a free trade area with zero tariff. SAARC was to become one in 2001. This could have benefited the smaller nations. There is still hope — a faint hope. But much can be done to prepare ground for a free trade region. By not taking advantage of the cheaper goods available in India, SAARC members incur huge losses by importing goods from other countries. Thus, a study by the Export-Import Bank of India in December, 1998, came to the conclusion that the members of SAARC were not aware of the benefits of intra-regional trade. As a result, Sri Lanka lost $ 266 million in 1994 by importing goods from elsewhere. And Pakistan lost $ 511 million. This can be stopped. It is a fact, there is a common fear that India will flood the markets of smaller nations once SAARC becomes a free trade area. Yes, there is such a prospect. But nothing prevents others from flooding the markets of India. What will matter in the final reckoning will depend on the quality of goods. Mere “flooding” will be no threat. In any case, we have the experience of NAFTA — the North American Free Trade Area in which the USA is the dominant partner of a number of smaller countries. Experience shows that the smaller nations have benefited from the association. There is also fear of the smaller ones losing their identity. We thought that it is similarity of identity which brought us together in the first instance. And what constitute the unique features of a nation cannot be lost. Politics intrudes into everything in SAARC. There is no cause for it. It is the principal hindrance to progress. India sacrificed 12,000 soldiers for the freedom of Bangladesh, but that did not make much of an impact on the population, which remains somewhat hostile. India has gone out of its way to be of help to Nepal. But Nepal has been remiss in protecting the interests of India. But enough of these recriminations. But what can one make of countries not carrying out agreements? For instance, the Transit Agreement between Bangladesh and Nepal aroused great hopes. This was a major long-term project which could have benefited both countries. Under this agreement, Nepal was to use Bangladesh ports for its external trade instead of Calcutta, which was getting congested and costly. As Nepal’s foreign trade was of the order of one million tonnes, Bangladesh could have made a substantial transit fee yearly, apart from other benefits. But it turned out that Bangladesh had no infrastructure to support this project. The agreement failed. Of course, India-Bangladesh relations have improved even since Sheikh Haseena came to power. Most of the problems are out of the way, and rail and road links have been restored. With these, the trade flow has picked up. But it is still not satisfactory. At the Male summit, it was decided to launch free trade in 2001. It was of course unrealistic. But unless the SAARC nations go for free trade, they cannot take full advantage of the association. A joint committee of experts is working on duty-free market access. The Sri Lanka-India Free Trade Agreement is the first experiment in free trade. What has been the experience? It is unfortunate that Sri Lanka is still going through abnormal times. Cooperation within SAARC on how to approach WTO issues jointly is important. Issues like intellectual property rights, trade and environment, copyrights, biodiversity, multilateral agreement on investment etc are a few of the instances. India is keen to evolve a common stand among developing countries to scuttle developed countries’ efforts to force fresh negotiations. SAARC should have been in the forefront of this battle. The Exim Bank has suggested a three-zonal approach : north-east, consisting of India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, southern region consisting of India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives and north-west consisting of India and Pakistan. Surely, this will prevent Pakistan from interfering in the decision-making process with regard to the two other zones. |
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Love is another name for God. And just as it is not possible to reduce God's greatness to mortal dimensions, so also is it not possible to describe adequately in any words known to man the grandeur and sublimity of love. *** Love is a beautiful and sublime experience of the heart. Books are full of the word "Love", but in the tears of love are flowing burning oceans. In the sighs of love there are thousands of tempests, and in the word of love there is no sense of time. *** Wherever there is love there is life. Where there is no love, life is worthless. Actually a man is not a true man unless he has within him the divine spark of love. God in the form of love is within everybody. Those whose eyes are open see all human beings as manifestations of God, like rays of the sun or waves of the ocean. They know that the same spark of love has created them all. Therefore, who can be low and who can be high? *** Love inspires generosity and obliterates selfishness, because it has no ulterior motive. If everyone in the world would live in the spirit of love, no worldly laws would be necessary. We need these laws because all have not learned to live in love, and as result, the world is entangled in a network of animal-like tendencies. *** So long as we do not love each other, there can be no peace in this world. Warships, armories, ammunition, submarines, cannons, tanks and atom bombs cannot create peace and harmony in the world. *** Love is the cream of life. It is the beauty of the soul. By means of love the soul is brightened and its glow is reflected on the face of the lover. — Maharaj Sawan Singh, *** Ye have heard that it hath been said, thou shalt love thy neighbour and hate thine enemy. But I say unto you, love your enemies, bless them that curse you, do good to them that hate you, and pray for them which despite fully use you and persecute you. —The Holy Bible, The gospel |
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