The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

A soft state indeed

IT is now doubly official — India is a soft state. The whole system caves in before any “leader” with proven record of or potential for destructive action. This is apart from its well-known tilt towards the elite of all varieties. First it was Mr Bal Thackeray and now it is forest brigand Veerappan. He seizes a living legend of Karnataka and quickly uses his captivity to force two state governments to concede 10 audacious demands. Nothing for himself, so say Chief Ministers Karunanidhi and Krishna. But they offer a solemn pledge to do his bidding as soon as possible. Since Veerappan has donned on the mantle of a great Tamil patriot, all his demands are directed at Karnataka, including the acceptance of a one-man imposed solution to the quarter century-old Cauvery dispute. Mr Thackeray could get away with his crime because of his capacity to whip up mass passion. Veerappan is about to get away with his crimes because he can murder a man and set a whole people (the Kannadigas) against another people (the Tamils) and also set the city of Bangalore on fire. It is not that the kidnapper has any hold on anyone, but his captive has and he can vicariously unleash that awesome force. That is the secret of his blackmailing power and the two states have inevitably bowed before it.

In fact, Karnataka or Tamil Nadu could not have acted differently. A tough no-nonsense stance would have led to an explosive situation which would have provoked harsher criticism than what agreeing to his wishes would do. This can be slotted under both pragmatism and a pro-Rajkumar (the actor-hostage) attitude and his millions of fans will approve of it. Karnataka can thus make a virtue out of this surrender to the haughty criminal. And Tamil Nadu is free of embarrassment since it has not been asked to show leniency. Everyone will agree that the primary duty of the state governments is to prevent rioting, looting and arson, and control them if they break out. It is also immoral to allow anyone, not the least an acknowledged icon, to languish in captivity or die at the hands of a plain criminal. Many public men have willy-nilly endorsed the idea of even an amnesty to Veerappan to secure the freedom of the actor (this is true of the Kannadigas) and to head off anti-Tamil violence in Bangalore (the Tamil motive). Some hawkish Tamil politicians have joined the chorus to share in the chauvinistic sentiments which his 10 demands reflect. It is surprising how one man, hiding deep in forest, can whip up diverse negative emotions in diverse men. It is a sign of the times that such men easily break into the front page of newspapers and prime time news slots of television channels!

The nervousness of the two Chief Ministers is understandable. There is a reservoir of animosity towards the Tamils in cities like Bangalore. It has a historic background and erupted into ugly violence once on the Cauvery issue and again as a retaliation against an attack on Rajkumar (yes, the same Rajkumar) in the Tamil Nadu hill station Udhagamandalam. One of Veerappan’s demands relates to a hefty compensation to victims of the 1991 rioting. Not many believe that the kidnapper has not asked for a ransom. An amount of Rs 50 crore is doing the rounds and the states, if they were to pay any cash, will find it impossible to account for it. Anyway, some years ago he asked for and received Rs 2.5 crore to let go two wildlife photographers. There is also a controversy about granting amnesty or pardon to him. A retired High Court Judge has quoted chapter and verse of the criminal law to argue that the executive cannot offer amnesty (which “abolishes” a crime already committed) but only a court can and only in extraordinary cases, and pardon can only be granted by the President of India and only after the criminal is convicted. Of course, it is not the time to talk of these legal niceties but to see the mega star out of the forest. Even delay might trigger a conflagration.

Yet another MiG crash

YET another young and promising Flight Lieutenant became a victim of a MiG-21 crash on Saturday. The 40-year-old fighter plane, which has earned the nickname of "flying coffin", has already claimed so many lives that it is a scandal that it is still flying. The brave fighter pilots would perhaps not bat an eyelid before laying down their lives for the country in combat, but dying in peacetime because of the villainy of an obsolete machine is unforgivable. It is thanks to official apathy that India has an extremely bad air safety record. Among the top 10 air forces of the world, the only country with a worse record than that of India is perhaps Russia, from where it purchases these planes. Nearly half of the fighter squadrons of the Indian Air Force depend on this plane of the sixties' vintage. Spares are a problem and there is a lot of cannibalising. A Rs 12-billion Indo-Russian programme to upgrade 125 MiG-21s by equipping them with improved avionics and weapons systems is already two years behind schedule. The first lot of the upgraded planes will not arrive before October. Meanwhile, the number of casualties has been steadily rising. Even when the done-up planes do arrive, it is doubtful if that will make much of a difference because not all recruits are adequately prepared to fly these sensitive and unforgiving planes. The IAF projected a need for an advanced jet trainer almost 15 years ago but the Defence Ministry bureaucrats are yet to finalise a deal to purchase some 66 trainers for the force. Due to such delays, the IAF has lost more than 58 fighter aircraft in air crashes since 1997-98.

As if all that is not enough, poor maintenance procedures compound the problems. There is a feeling among many IAF personnel that maintenance is a neglected discipline. In fact, there are some experts who believe that as many as 50 per cent of all crashes take place because of poor maintenance procedures. Whenever an accident takes place, a court of enquiry is ordered but things are never set right fully. Some time back, a high-powered committee on fighter aircraft accidents (COFAA) was constituted under the chairmanship of the Scientific Adviser to the Defence Minister, Dr APJ Abdul Kalam, to analyse the causes of accidents. In its report, it made certain recommendations to bring down the accident rate. These involve changes in the organisational structure, procedures, training and design. The details of the recommendations have not been made public. The all-pervasive stamp of secrecy has come in handy. All that has been given out by the Defence Minister is that 55 out of the 84 recommendations have been implemented. Apparently, the left-out 29 are of crucial importance and till those are implemented, there will be no noticeable improvement. The nation owes it to uncomplaining officers like Flt-Lieut S.C. Shukla that there is no further delay. It has been given out that Saturday's crash was because of a bird-hit. Even if it was, there is need for setting right at least those problems which are very much man-made.

Bloody Kashmir post-script

THE difference between letting off steam and going berserk evidently needs to explained to those who organised bandhs and protest rallies against the Lashkar-e-Toiba-engineered recent acts of violence in Jammu and Kashmir. The militants killed over 100 persons in several incidents spread across the valley. Some months ago Pakistan-trained militants had gunned down a large number of Sikhs in Chhatisinghpora for giving a new communal twist to the situation in Kashmir. The Sikh leadership across the country showed great maturity by advocating restraint which defeated the militants' objective of provoking a communal backlash in the valley. Last week the target of the Lashkar's attack was primarily non-Kashmiri Hindus who visit the state in large numbers in the month of August every year for the yatra to the holy shrine at Amarnath. The objective was the same. This time they succeeded in provoking a communal response which would give Pakistan the opportunity to demand "global intervention for protecting Indian Muslims from becoming victims of communal violence". Once again Surat had to bear the brunt of the "retaliatory attacks" during the course of the bandh against the killing of the Amarnath yatris. The bandh call was given by the local unit of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and, therefore, its leaders cannot disown responsibility for the communal frenzy which visited the city on the day of the strike. Members of both the Hindu and Muslim communities were unable to find a rational explanation for communal violence which claimed at least five lives on Thursday and two on Friday when the curfew was relaxed for a few hours.

Those who remember the communal madness which gripped the nation in December, 1992, after the demolition of Babri Masjid in Ayodhya saw disturbing similarities between the communal frenzy which was witnessed in Surat eight years ago and the fresh incidents of violence which took place on Thursday and Friday. Some were reminded of the madness which swept parts of the nation after the Bombay bomb blasts in 1993. It is not that Surat has never experienced communal violence. It was rocked by communal violence on several occasions when the Congress was in power in Gujarat for nearly four decades. However, since the Bharatiya Janata Party, whose secular credentials are suspect in the eyes of the members of the Muslim community (and now even Christians who continue to be the target of mindless violence because of the propaganda against them on the issue of religious conversion), stories about indirect official patronage to the instigators are in circulation. The police is being charged with having played a "pro-active" role in instigating acts of violence in predominantly Muslim localities. It is being alleged that the State Reserve Police jawans played the kind of role which has earned the PAC of Uttar Pradesh the reputation of being the most "communal force in uniform" anywhere in the country. The Home Minister of Gujarat, Mr Haren Pandya, is respected for his no-nonsense and impartial approach in handling sensitive issues and commitment to stamping out communal violence from the state. However, the Surat episode and the continued targeting of Christians have spoiled his track record. He has promised action against the perpetrators of communal violence, be they Hindus or Muslims. If he fulfils the promise, Gujarat would become the first state in the country to punish those found guilty of committing communal crimes.

BIFURCATION OF STATES
Political mileage, lousy economics
by Poonam I. Kaushish

IT was a roller coster ride in Parliament last week. The barbaric killings in Kashmir, discussions on Dr Farooq Abdullah’s autonomy proposal, Law Minister Jethmalani’s exit from the government and the States Reorganisation Bills kept the mediapeople on their toes. Amidst the ruckus over Kashmir, leading to the Congress walkout over the government’s refusal to order a judicial enquiry to fix responsibility for the massacre, the creation of three new states — Uttaranchal, Jharkhand (Vananchal) and Chhattisgarh — got lost in the J & K mayhem even as the government hopefully started its journey on the road to peace with the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen.

The three constitutional amendments will change the federal demographic structure of India. Yet, not only did not major amendments not get the serious attention they deserved but they also had rajniti written all over them. Political gains in the short-term, as opposed to their long-term ramifications. While the government patted itself on the back for fulfilling one of its promises, some of its allies went to town denouncing the creation of the new states as a sell-out. Albeit outside Parliament. That, too, after the Lok Sabha had voted for them, knowing full well that except for filling newspaper columns, their opposition would not count for much.

Perhaps they know that the Bill has a long way to go before the new states become a reality. Constitutionally, the three Bills have now to be passed by the Rajya Sabha. Thereafter, they would need to be endorsed once again by the three state assemblies concerned of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Subsequently, the Bills will require to be ratified by a majority of the existing states before “small becomes beautiful.”

Thus there is enough time for the opponents to mount pressure on the government to do a re-think. The Akali Dal continues to vociferously oppose the inclusion of Udham Singh Nagar district, a predominantly Sikh-dominated region, in the new state of Uttaranchal. Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal has gone so far as to deny in a Press statement that he had concurred with Defence Minister George Fernandes for its inclusion in the new state and given the “go-ahead”. The Akali Dal chief’s opposition dates back to 1998 when the proposal for the bifurcation of the three states was first mooted. To overcome this, the Prime Minister set up a three-member committee, headed by Defence Minister George Fernandes and including Mr Badal and UP Chief Minister Ram Prakash Gupta, to study the problem and give its recommendations. Sources close to Mr Badal assert that the Akali chief spoke to Mr Fernandes on July 31 morning from Pant Nagar (part of Udham Singh Nagar) and told him that he would contact him on his return in the evening. But the Defence Minister went ahead and supported the controversial district’s inclusion in Uttaranchal as the committee’s recommendation.

Funnily, the setting up of this committee, announced with much fanfare in Parliament, has got mired in a controversy. While the Opposition wants the committee’s report alongwith its recommendations tabled in the Lok Sabha, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Pramod Mahajan has declined to do so on the plea that the committee was an internal matter of the NDA and was never notified by the government. Mr Fernandes, for his part, asserts that it was not even a committee, only an informal group.

In UP, the ruling BJP’s alliance partner, the Loktantrik Congress, has repeated its threat of withdrawing support to the Ram Prakash Gupta government if Hardwar is gifted to Uttaranchal. Additionally, within the BJP too, serious reservations are being voiced. Privately, some BJP ministers and MPs voiced their disapproval apart from certain Opposition leaders.

The creation of Jharkhand is going to be a nightmarish experience. On the one hand, the Orissa Chief Minister and BJD chief, Mr Naveen Patnaik, continues to nurse a grouse against the inclusion of Oriya-dominated districts of Saraikela and Kharaswan in the new state, on the other the RJD’s Laloo Yadav has had a somersault yet again, leaving all in doubt about what he finally stands for. To save Mrs Rabri’s kursi, it may be yes today. But tomorrow is another day. As matters stand, BJD MPs are accusing the government of having failed to take up their demand within the NDA constituents as was desired. Was it discussed with the BJD at all? If so, when and where, they pointedly ask. In fact, had it not been for Prime Minister Vajpayee’s timely intervention in the matter, the BJD would have abstained from voting on the Bill. This would have embarrassed the government no end.

Worse, clearly to score brownie points, the government has put the cart before the horse. It seems to be clueless regarding the basic criteria for splitting the states. Is it according to geographical parameters, cultural affinity, linguistic or caste identity, economic, ethnic or administrative considerations or is it plain whims? Importantly, should not the government have first forged a national consensus on the criteria before taking this step? What after all, was the need for creating a new state or splitting one?

Why wasn’t a State Reorganisation Commission constituted to study all these aspects before the government brought forward Bills for creating the new states. True, Home Minister Advani did assert that the criteria for the formation of the new states were based on the recommendations sent by the state Assemblies concerned. But this, candidly, smacks of a cavalier and ad hoc approach. A national consensus on this highly emotive issue would have saved a lot of heart-burn and criticism.

Jharkhand is a pointer to the government’s quixotic approach. Undeniably, the new state will be the new power house. The mineral-rich state will account for the country’s 37.5 per cent of known coal reserves, 90 per cent of its cooking coal deposits, 40 per cent of its copper, 22 per cent iron-ore and 90 per cent mica, and a huge deposits of bauxite and quartz. This is not to forget the country’s largest steel plant, many on-going hydel power projects and various research and educational institutes.

In contrast, Bihar will now have to pick the pockets of its poor people. Already in a mess, the state will be robbed of its pride — the rich natural resources in South Bihar, which will now be transferred to Jharkhand. What it will be left with is a flood-prone-rich Ganga valley in the north and nine drought-prone central districts. Worse, it will have to cope with a higher population than the national average, a lower income-level than the national average, a very low tax base which will become still lower as the state will lose crores in sales tax and royalty on minerals. Also, unemployment will increase with the mines and factories going to Jharkhand. Already reeling under a chronic power shortage, it will be back to candles at best or dark ages at worst.

Meanwhile, the Vajpayee government has been saddled with renewed demands for carving new states of Gorkhaland (out of West Bengal), Telengana (Andhra), Bodoland (Assam), Ladakh (Kashmir), Vidarbha (Maharashtra), Garoland (Meghalaya), Mithilanchal (North Bihar) and Kodagu (Karnataka’s coffee belt).

Nobody can deny that some of the states in India are too large and unwieldy for good governance. Experience shows that smaller states are able to meet more effectively the rising expectations and aspirations of their people for speedy development and a responsive administration. Haryana and Himachal Pradesh are the cases in point.

However, the protagonists of bigger states disagree. What guarantee, they ask, is there that this will end internal fissures and not stoke the smouldering fires of disputes over borders — and cities? When governments the world over are cutting costs, should we continue to multiply our expenses. Authoritative sources aver that a new state would cost well over Rs 1000 crore.

In sum, should we allow politicians of all hues to create new pocketboroughs for themselves, ignoring national unity. India has completed 52 years of Independence with 25 states, a testimony to a free and vibrant democracy. Are we now going to roll back history to the pre-Independence days, and create 562 states? Once the process starts snowballing, no one can say where it will end.

The Prime Minister and his NDA government would do well to take a fresh look at a resolution adopted by Parliament in 1955 on the question of new states: “...The first essential consideration is the preservation and strengthening of the unity and security of India. Financial, economic and administrative considerations are almost equally important not only from the point of view of each state but of the whole nation....”

Understanding the Thackeray case
by Narendra Kumar Oberoi

DEFENDING himself against the charge of sedition in a court of law in British India in the thirties, Jawaharlal Nehru contended that the issue was far too large for the jurisdiction of the court. It was to be decided by the forces outside. The magistrate and he were symbols, the magistrate of dying imperialism, and he of resurgent nationalism. The unceremonial disposal of Mr Bal Thackeray’s case needs to be looked into beyond the compulsions of the ruling combines in the state concerned — Maharashtra — and at the Centre. After the Shiv Sena-BJP government in Maharashtra wound up the Srikrishna Enquiry Commission, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee ordered its revival, and now the Central government is cooling its heels over the prosecution proceedings.

Mr Thackeray’s arrest and the bail were perfunctory affairs, a non-event. The sanction for prosecution by the non-Shiv Sena government after a gap of eight years is a factor which is not altogether irrelevant. The widespread alert in Maharashtra and the country on the part of the law-enforcement agencies goes to expose the maxim that nobody is above the law. Those who are above the law are a (political) class by themselves. This forces us to re-examine our definitions of law every now and then.

The Supreme Court asking the Central government to file a fresh affidavit on its stand in the matter is going to be exploited by the Centre to its advantage in the current autonomy debate on Jammu and Kashmir. The fresh affidavit would be yet another rhetorical reiteration of its earlier reservations on this prosecution. The sanction for prosecution may have called into question the relations between the states and the Centre ruled by different political parties. The matter of jurisdiction is a cover-up of the contradictions of coalition politics.

The danger that Maharashtra or the entire country could be on fire has only receded for the time being. There is no permanent reprieve unless we investigate the causes which hardly go dysfunctional because they are dormant. To look upon Mr Thackeray’s arrest as a law and order problem, which of course it is, is hardly doing justice to it. It is not a contest between the constitutional and the extra-constitutional authority either. Prevarications by those concerned with the implementation of the Srikrishna Commission report have to be understood in the context of the shape of divide in the country between different perceptions of nationalism. Secession from the Indian State is not their agenda. The autonomy debate makes it clear. Mr Thackeray stands for a pan-Indian Hindu State. He is both the lawgiver and the law. His followers would not look upon his prosecution as the vindication the law of the land.

Whatever be the verdict of the higher courts of law on Mr Thackeray’s prosecution, it has to be understood in the context of the forces outside the courts of law. Despite the warrant of arrest, Sant Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale strode unarrested from Maharashtra to his Damdami Taksal in Amritsar through many states on the way. During the Emergency the country was virtually put under arrest by Sanjay Gandhi, who had no constitutional authority. In the presence of the police and the political leaders who are ministers in the Central Cabinet now Babri Masjid was demolished despite all assurances by the state government to Parliament and the Supreme Court of India to the contrary. The stand-offishness of the police in the 1992-93 communal riots in Mumbai and that of the Delhi police in the 1984 anti-Sikh riots after the assassination of Indira Gandhi further brings out the untenability of the distinctions between the constitutional and the extra-constitutional.

Recently a Delhi court ordered the arrest of the hijackers of Delhi-Nepal flight IA 1118 who had been escorted to Kandahar by India’s Minister for External Affairs for a safe let-off. Veerappan whisks away a popular film star to his hideout which continues to be beyond the reach of law and order.

The distinction that Nehru made between imperialism and nationalism is increasingly getting blurred. British imperialism was monolithic and the whole nation fighting it did not suffer an identity crisis. About the colonial fascist character of British imperialism there were no misgivings as about the nationalism of those up against it. The resurgence of nationalisms which claim to be swadeshi and hence more genuine call for a concerted dialogue with the masses as to who we are and wish to be as a nation. Would they permit any demagogy to dispossess them of their shared memories and identities of an anti-communal composite culture? They surface for a while during the elections from their illiteracy and squalor to have a kick of their being axiomatic rulers. An alternative space has to be made available to them to politically exist before and after the elections to empower them against demagogues.

Mr Bal Thackeray’s arrest has been described symbolic as if to cut it to its size, a filling in the blank of the legal procedure. Ironically enough, it is symbolic in a much deeper sense. The deeper implications have to be brought to the consciousness of the people. Mr Thackeray is no ordinary leader. He is a cult figure. He heads a virtual state. To begin with, it was Maharashtra for Maharashtrians, and now it extends to the north and south of India. Its real location is in the geography of imagination, the communal unconscious of the gullible, a multitude whom he converts into rioters and killers. He blesses them with a halo. From non-descript individuals they become Shiv Sainiks. They have to be made to realise that they are used as an incendiary material by the Shiv Sena supremo to put Maharashtra or the country on fire as and when it suits his politics.

It calls for a country-wide awareness campaign to dismantle the mythology of competing nationalisms and their underlying politics of power. High-profile national and international seminars, symposia and conferences of the talk-show ilk would not serve the purpose. It would require India going to Bharat — going to the grassroots, the classes coming into contact with the masses in their day-to-day negotiations with their cultural and political milieu. Who would do it or how it would be done is the crucial question. The politician would not do it. The academia and the media would not do it as they in their different ways make a business of it. It is a dead end surely but not the one like that of Mr Bal Thackeray’s prosecution which would bring history to a stop.

The writer is Professor, Department of English, Panjab University, Chandigarh.

Economy: more warning shots
by P. Raman

WHILE we all remain preoccupied with politics and state-level troubles, certain extremely disturbing portends on the economic front have gone altogether unnoticed. The establishment, naturally, dislikes the negative side to be highlighted. The business writers feel embarrassed to see their own pet projects go haywire. Instead, the emphasis is on applying a still higher dose of the same medicine. Thus the truth about the state of the economy gets buried under layers of unreal projections and misleading interpretations.

Contrary to the public perception, things have begun really turning topsy-turvy. Every economic indicator tells stories of stagnation or downward trend. The one front where we have some happy tidings is exports. The latest figures show a commendable upsurge of 27 per cent rise as compared to the same period last year. But then imports have also risen, thereby further widening the trade deficit. Up to May last, the trade deficit has increased to $ 1.027 billion as against $ 0.757 billion last year. It is bound to worsen when the regimen of unrestricted imports becomes effective from next April.

Last month, Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha had proclaimed a robust growth rate of “7 to 8 per cent” for the next one year. But within days came the startling CSO revelation that the industrial growth had dipped to an alarming low. The index of industrial production (IIP) dipped to 5.6 per cent in the April-May period as compared to 12.2 per cent the previous month. Part of it — only a tiny part — may be due to the change in calculation of the IIP. But the trend is really disturbing. The negative growth in the capital goods sector for the quarter clearly reflects the slackening investment demand. Thus the high optimism over a breakthrough in GDP growth rate is most likely to be proved wrong.

On the price front, we are still far away from the dreaded days of two-digit inflation. But the index for wholesale prices has crossed well over 6 per cent as against a mere 2 per cent a year ago. Unlike the two-digit days, post-reform price rise should cause much more worry. Freer imports — and now large-scale dumping at rockbottom prices — should have further brought down the prices, its impact on the indigenous production notwithstanding. Before 1991, supply management has been a major factor in price rise. If the prices shoot up under the new system, it can only be due to more basic factors, and the old remedies would hardly work.

Apparently, all this has had a crippling effect on the health of the national currency. The RBI has been trying several drastic measures — some very costly — to keep the rupee at what is described as “psychological” barrier of Rs 45. When that too failed, as a last resort it raised the interest rates by as much as 1 per cent and CRR by 0.5 per cent. The RBI itself is aware that its remedy will have deadly side effects on the economy. Despite this if it had taken their risk, it further signals our serious economic dilemmas.

First is the extreme vulnerability of the rupee in the new economy under which the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) enjoy full freedom to come and go at will without any commitments. Unlike the foreign direct investment, FIIs are the most dangerous and unscrupulous band of multinationals whose only consideration is to make quick bucks. They enter the secondary share markets. Not the primary. Their role is highly predatory and thus makes only insignificant contribution to the host country’s economy.

By their very nature, even the reserves they have built up — in fact quite substantial — can’t be considered as asset but largely a perpetual liability. This illusory foreign exchange reserves had made our successive Finance Ministers to boast of health of the Indian economy under them. Ironically, this had a very damaging effect during the WTO negotiations. The latter had quoted the boasts about the “comfortable” foreign exchange position to deny Indian considerable quantitative restrictions (QR) and tariff benefits in imports.

If some bourses fall elsewhere on the globe and the FIIs find better scope out there, they will overnight empty their holdings in this country, precipitating steep falls in the stock exchanges. This can in no way be a reflection on our industries. But for no fault of theirs, the domestic shares have to suffer. We are thus always exposed to the dire dangers of the zig-zags elsewhere and the greed and speculative designs of a couple of hundred FIIs. This has been a major reason for the steep dips on the stock markets and the pressures on the rupee from last month onwards. We have a foreign exchange reserves of $ 36 billion but a big chunk of which is the dangerously volatile FII funds.

Even a fraction of this speculative capital is emptied at a given time, it can have a crippling impact. According to some estimates, $ 250 million was withdrawn and sent out to better pastures by the FIIs during last month’s rupee crisis. A major factor for the exodus of capital last month has been the hardening of the interest rates in the USA and other developed countries. Similar flights of FII’s speculative portfolio money out into the dollar or Euro is to an extent inevitable. In the past, many countries, notably the Asian Tigers — trotted out as own models until their collapse — were victims of such mindless capital flights. The FIIs had also played havoc in Latin America.

The RBI’s dilemma is understandable. The cuts in interest rate and CRRs gave only a brief respite. Had this not been effected there might have been renewed buying of dollars and further pressure on the rupee. There are rumours of fiercer RBI measures to save the still falling rupee even as its earlier action has come under strong criticism. The rise in bank rates will immediately make capital for the domestic industry more costly. This, in turn, will make the indigenous industry less competitive when they will be thrown to savage onslaughts by the MNC dumpers and market hunters with large resources and wide networks — in just eight months.

This is going to be the gravest threat to the Indian economy in the post-reform era. After Pranab Mukherjee had signed the death warrant to the domestic industries — and Vajpayee followed it up promptly by opening 1,200 items for free imports to pave way for the Clinton visit — no serious effort was made by the NDA government to equip the domestic industry to meet the fatal challenge. Under the WTO, India will have to totally remove the OR and allow unresticted imports of any kind of foreign goods from April 2001. Immediately, this will further delay any chances of economic recovery. For the domestic industry, this means the stiffest competition from the flood of imported goods at rockbottom prices.

So far, it has been steel, organic chemicals and bulk drugs. There are reports of China and east Asian countries getting ready with such items as cheap electronic goods, bicycles, garments, textiles etc. About half of the small industries have already been shut or are in advanced stages of bankruptcy. They are too weak to think of any resistance. The bigger ones knew about the impending tornado but remain to confused as where to begin and how to respond. Even such established brands as Bajaj scooters are already reeling under the impact. The NDA Ministers are too busy with politicking that they have just awaken to the need for challenging the dumping under the WTO rules.

However, even the WTO’s counter-rules like anti-dumping duties and tariff barriers have their own caps, and their effective resort could at best delay the onslaught. Imports of consumer items means import of unemployment. Already, the number of those on the live register of the employment exchanges has crossed the 41-million mark. Its impact is felt in every small town with many bankrupt entrepreneurs committing suicide. This is no scare-mongering. This has occurred in all countries where global trade invasion was forced on a weak middle entrepreneurial sector with high interest rates and virtual industrial stagnation.

Four years back Turkey was forced into a similar crisis after it had allowed unrestricted imports following its joining the European Union. The imports grew at 30 per cent a year whereas the export growth was only 10 per cent. Though as a price the EU brought some foreign direct investment this did not make up for the subsequent destruction of its domestic industry and massive unemployment with all its social and criminal consequences.

It was still worse in Mexico. In 1994, its more than half medium and large textile mills and engineering enterprises collapsed due to the unrestricted flow of imports. Opening up for imports was a condition, as everywhere, for its joining the North Atlantic Free Area the previous year. As foreign goods flooded the market and domestic industry went brankrupt, the government was forced to go in for such desperate measures as sharp devaluation of the peso. This led to more miseries and over 15,000 more industries went into liquidation and more than three million workers lost jobs. All this was in the hope of the illusive foreign investment.

May be India is relatively better placed to withstand such forced disasters. The establishment claims our basics are strong and thus it had even survived the impact of the great Asian economic collapse. But that was only because the government had not heeded the business writers’ advice for full convertibility of the rupee. The tornado of imports invasion is going to be direct and more merciless on a virtually defenceless India. The kind of governmental inaction and the industries’ own attitude of leaving it to fate will make it more disastrous.

SPIRITUAL NUGGETS

Love is complete in itself. In love, the lover becomes one with the beloved. There is no meditation greater than love. There is no law higher than love, and there is no goal beyond love. God and love are the same thing. Meditation involves effort; in love all is spontaneous. Love means merging into the Shabd — losing one's identity.

Love differs from lust. Lust pulls us down, while love lifts us up. In lust, there is suffering, in love there is union and joy. Lust is the craving of the senses, love is the ardour of the soul. Lust is an instrument of Kal; love is the gift of the Master. Love, awakened by the Master, is a rare privilege, and leads to salvation.

— Maharaj Charan Singh in Treasure Beyond Measure

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Where there is faith, there is love

Where there is love, there is peace,

Where there is peace, there is truth,

Where there is truth there is bliss

Where there is bliss, there is God.

Love fosters peace,

Peace nourishes truth,

Truth confers bliss and

Bliss is God.

Love in thought is truth.

Love in action is right conduct.

Love is understanding, is peace.

Love in feeling is non-violence.

Love is a bridge over the sea of change.

Do not build a house on it.

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Love God with all your heart,

With all your soul

and with all your strength.

Love is the form of Brahman (The Supreme Reality)

Brahman is love Divine.

The merger of human love with

Divine love brings about Cosmic Order

One who is full of love attains

The states of Oneness with Him.

— From the discourses of Sathya Sai Baba

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Love can exist in two dimensions: either as horizontal or as vertical. We are acquainted with the love which is horizontal. That is also the dimension of time; the vertical is the dimension of eternity.

Your love is only a mind phenomenon; it is biology, it is physiology, it is psychology, but it is not eternal. Eternal is of the essential being ....

— Osho, Guida Spirituale

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No man is your enemy, no man is your friend. All alike are your teachers. One must no longer work for the gain of any benefit, temporal or spiritual, but to fulfil the law of being which is the righteous will of God.

— H.P. Blavatsky, Practical Occultism

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Winds of temptation and distraction may choke up our flame of concentration: We must protect it.

— Dharam Prakash, 17 Steps to Excellence for Youths