E D I T O R I A L   P A G E

EDITORIALS

Warm India-China ties
AS giant neighbours, India and China are fated to sometimes quarrel and sometimes make up. The two cannot remain locked in hostility for long, nor can the peace offensive be very late in coming. Right now it is the normalisation phase and China has taken the lead.

Tunnel is essential
The proposed Rohtang tunnel has been in and out of the news for so long that it is hard to accept that it is now actually set to be a reality. But there is no reason not to believe in the project that the Prime Minister has sanctioned for hill state during his summer sojourn. 

Sorry, wrong number!
Communications Minister Ram Vilas Paswan has many virtues, but discharging ministerial duties with efficiency is not one of them. 

ANALYSES

REALPOLITIK

MIDDLE

SPIRITUAL NUGGETS

75 years ago
June 6, 1925
A Discovery
AN Anglo-Indian paper has made a great discovery regarding the Indian problem. In the course of a long article on the “Importance of being Wealthy”, the writer comes to the following conclusion: “The most expensive form of government is democratic government..." 

Warm India-China ties

AS giant neighbours, India and China are fated to sometimes quarrel and sometimes make up. The two cannot remain locked in hostility for long, nor can the peace offensive be very late in coming. Right now it is the normalisation phase and China has taken the lead. A diplomatic nicety highlights its keenness to overcome the past and get on with the larger task of economic development. On the day President Narayanan arrived in Beijing, there was another VVIP state guest, President Kim Jong Il of North Korea. There was no mention of his visit, lest it jostled for front page coverage along with that of the Indian leader. There was complete silence for the next four days, while Mr Narayanan was in Beijing. It is well to remember that diplomatically North Korea is more important, very much more important, to China than India. Another gesture was equally significant. No leader from the host country raised the nuclear issue. China was more angry than even the USA at the May, 1998, nuclear blasts, since it perceived in this a threat to its leadership ambitions in Asia. That came a few days after Defence Minister Fernandes declared the neighbour as a source of threat to this country’s security. It was a low point in bilateral relations, partly mended by Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh last year and now imparted momentum by the President’s six-day visit last week.

A notable gain is shifting the focus again on the core dispute of border demarcation. Until now the attempt has been to freeze the issue and get on with improving trade ties. Both countries bristled at the idea of redrawing the line of control — India wary of popular protest and China obsessed with its overblown idea of sovereignty. Both sides have mellowed down and are ready to grasp the nettle. It seems that an expert group will soon meet and give the question a hard look. The very process of re-examining the 50-year-old problem is dramatic and obviously it will be years if not decades before there is a solution. But what is likely to happen much earlier is a change of mood and lowering of tension. The border is the only source of discord, very much like China’s similar disputes with all its neighbours. Tibet is an irritant and both countries have kept it outside the ambit of mutual ties. India is deeply interested in its early resolution but has no leverage with China to seek one. Maybe in the years to come, it will be able to influence the communist neighbour.

There was agreement on fighting international terrorism. It is a fashionable agenda item at all important meetings. But terrorism means different things to different people. India thinks firmly of Pakistan and its export of mercenaries to Kashmir and China focuses on the few armed Islamic insurgents in the western province. China’s long-lasting friendship with Pakistan is the cornerstone of its Asian policy and though it is not so loud in its support as in the past, it has made it clear that if it is forced to stand up and be counted, it will be on behalf of Pakistan. Beijing has shown keen interest in information technology. It helps to be among the leaders. Trade potential is limited since the economies of the two countries are competing rather than complementary. India can sell wheat but it would like to buy from the USA which offers concessions. For Americans it is a gold rush to China; Indians have to go there as good neighbours.

Tunnel is essential

The proposed Rohtang tunnel has been in and out of the news for so long that it is hard to accept that it is now actually set to be a reality. But there is no reason not to believe in the project that the Prime Minister has sanctioned for hill state during his summer sojourn. The surveys for the tunnel conducted during the past several decades should now come in handy for its speedy execution. The need for the tunnel has been felt all along but it has become absolutely pressing after the Pakistani’s incursion into the Kargil and Batalik sectors last year. Those areas attract Pakistan’s special attention mainly because the Srinagar-Leh road passes close to the LoC there and if the road is cut off, it is very easy to snap the Ladakh region from the rest of the country. The Manali-Leh road can provide a viable and safer alternative but for the fact that it passes through high passes, including Rohtang and Baralacha La, which remain snowbound and unpassable from September to May. The 9-km-long tunnel can provide a year-round road to the Ladakh capital. Since last year, the Army has been using this route extensively despite the high passes. The road is important from another angle also. This is the gateway to the Lahaul, Pangi and Ladakh areas. With the road blocked during the winter, the people of the sensitive area are cut off from the rest of the world and have a feeling of isolation and alienation. If there is delay in opening the passes or early snow blocks the road, it is not possible to stock essential supplies for the winter. The already harsh life becomes unbearble in the absence of fuel and food. The extreme poverty in the area is also linked to the fact that it is not possible for the people to send their produce to the markets elsewhere in the country. Earlier, nothing much grew there in any case. But in recent years, the virgin land has proved to be extremely fertile for cash crops such as potatoes and herbs. An all-weather road can transform the fortune of the people of the area.

The advantages of the Nehru Tunnel linking Srinagar with Jammu are already before us. Technology is available today to dig the Rohtang tunnel economically and in the minimum time. The Prime Minister has not made it clear who will bear the estimated Rs 500 crore cost of the project but finances should not affect the progress of this vital project. If necessary, the help of the private sector and international organisations can be sought. While this project will take some time to be completed, there is also the immediate need to improve the Ropar-Kulu-Manali road. Nearly 50 per cent of Army men and ammunition have been sent to Leh through this route since last year. That has increased the rush on the route. At the same time, the tourist traffic to Manali has increased manifold. The tunnel will serve its purpose if the entire road network is suitably upgraded in keeping with the future projections.

Sorry, wrong number!

Communications Minister Ram Vilas Paswan has many virtues, but discharging ministerial duties with efficiency is not one of them. As Railway Minister he invited criticism by announcing the setting up of new zones, without consulting the Planning Commission or the Finance Ministry. Anyone who was privileged to shake hands with him ended up with an executive class pass for unlimited free rail travel. The services of over 50,000 casual workers were regularised, ignoring the Railway Board's complaint of the network being over-staffed, merely because such expressions of generosity at the expense of the exchequer were meant to improve his popularity among the downtrodden. Had Mr Paswan's heart been made of gold, he may have willingly parted with it for a few rounds of applause. That is the reason why every time his seemingly well-intentioned ministerial actions attract criticism instead of praise; he goes through the motions of sulking like a child who is refused a cookie even for his good deeds. He thought that as Communications Minister he had no need to communicate with others, for obtaining their consent, before offering what may turn out to be a Rs 12,000 crore bonanza for the nearly three lakh telecommunication employees. He appears not to understand the reason why just about everyone gets after him for playing Hatimtai, first as Railway Minister and now as the political head of the fast expanding network of telecommunications-related services in the country. In his book if there is shortage of bread the next best option is to offer to the employees a huge chunk of public cake to earn their loyalty, which may at some future date translate into improved efficiency. It is just as well that Mr Paswan chose the political route for serving the people. Had he received training in serving them through the corporate sector, his tendency to show generosity by using funds over which he has no claim would have given him the most recognisable face at the employment exchange. Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has rightly decided to put on hold the hare-brained scheme of giving free telephone connections to the telecom employees. The better option would be to give the scheme a quiet burial even if it means making Mr Paswan unhappy. Someone should tell him that the employees of private organisations and their families are debarred from taking part in schemes for attracting more customers. The Rotary and Lions Clubs do not allow wards of their members to avail themselves of the countless fellowships they offer for promoting international goodwill. Mr Paswan has blamed the Opposition for the attack on the free phone scheme. He needs to be told that the nation is not amused with his tendency to squander public funds for improving his rating as a politician. A private firm may offer the moon to its employees. If in the process of pleasing its employees, without ensuring improved productivity, the firm goes bust, it is private money which goes down the drain. But when an enterprise in the public sector suffers financially, as a result of distributing unjustified largesse to its workers, the tax payers' interests are hurt. The tax payers are to the national economy what the share holders are to the private sector. But there is a vital difference. Alert share holders have the option to withdraw their money from the market in the event of financial turbulence. But tax payers have only one option: to see to it that their investment in the national economy is not abused on promoting populist schemes by politicians like Mr Paswan.

STORY OF MISSED TARGETS
Truth about science in India
by Praful Bidwai

AS we recover from the assault of hyperbole following the Clinton visit about India having joined the USA in “the forefront” of the new “knowledge revolution” and “high-technology economy”, and having thus arrived on the world stage as a science “superpower”, it is time to take a look at the real state of our science and technology (S&T). Even a first glimpse is pretty sobering. India may have done well in a few limited new areas such as computer software, or old fields like chemistry or earth science. But in S&T as a whole, it is in decline. India’s rank in world scientific output — as measured by the Science Citation Index (SCI) composed of publications in standard references — has fallen from eight in the early 1980s to 13 now.

In 1998, India’s share in global scientific output was only 1.58 per cent — that is .36 per cent lower than it was in the early 1980s. Indian science increased its annual output in the 1970s and more or less peaked in 1981 with about 13,000 papers in SCI-covered journals. This has since fallen to about 12,000 papers out of a global total which has itself risen from 4 lakh to 7.6 lakh a year. India’s world ranking in citation impact (the number of times a paper is counted or cited by others) has fallen from 57 to 81, one of the lowest scores ever for a Third World country. This reflects poorly on both quantity and quality of our science.

This may be partly explained by the removal of some 30 out of 40 Indian journals from the SCI — itself partly a reflection of a mixture of reasons such as the falling quality of Indian science and some Western prejudice against Third World publications. But if the same prejudicial effect is assumed to apply to other countries, then too India stands out. Even if the 30 excluded Indian journals are included, India’s overall rank would only improve from 13 to 12. The decline of S&T is a fact. According to UNESCO, India is one of the three regions (including Sub-Saharan Africa) which experienced such a decline from the mid-1980s to mid-1990s. In the same period, China and Southeast Asia increased their shares of world science output by two-and-a-half and three times, respectively.

In qualitative terms too, Indian science continues to be in decline. The relative citation rate (the ratio of observed to expected citations) for Indian publications has fallen, and is now lower than the ratio for Mexico, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, even Kenya. In many fields such as biology and life sciences, or chemistry and geology, where India traditionally enjoyed a high score, it is now on a downward slope.

For all our smugness about having the world’s “third largest” pool of “scientific manpower,” Indian science is in rather poor shape and is missing the targets set by our administrative structures and chains of laboratories. The most important such chain is the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), with 40 institutes under it, with a budget exceeding Rs 970 crore. In January, 1996, under Director-General RA Mashelkar, it set the ambitious goal of transforming itself into a “CSIR Inc”, as defined by a White Paper called “CSIR 2001: Vision Strategy”.

The targets set in this “Vision Strategy” document included generating Rs 700 crore a year from external (extra-mural) sources, at least half of it from industrial customers; generating 450 new foreign patents a year; meeting a tenth of the Council’s operating expenditure from intellectual property rights (IPR) licensing fees; and earning $40 million annually from overseas through R&D. Today, just nine months before the deadline, there is little hope that any of these targets would be met. For instance, the current external resources generation is only Rs 240 crore, barely a third of the target for next year. In place of 450 new foreign patents, the performance is 200 and unlikely to increase much. In place of the Rs 350 crore to be raised from industrial customers, the 1999-2000 performance was only Rs 96 crore. Foreign R&D earning was only $5 million instead of $40 million. Worse, only 5 per cent of the IPR earnings target has been achieved as of now.

The CSIR, under Dr Mashelkar’s seemingly energetic stewardship, had ambitions to become a “highly professional and autonomous” body, a “virtual corporate entity”, free of tedious government regulation and dependence on state funding. The CSIR projected itself as the core of an emerging “global R&D platform”. In reality, it remains as bureaucratically hamstrung and bound by the rules of babudom as before. Dr Mashelkar has derecognised all associations of scientific workers — in a ruthless corporate-style manoeuvre, cornering and demoralising scientists. But that is about the only “corporate” thing about the CSIR, barring somewhat increased industry collaboration.

Indian laboratories and institutes, whether in the CSIR system or outside, have failed to emerge as a significant “global R&D platform”. Some private companies, especially in information technology and pharmaceuticals, have started entering into R&D contracts with foreign firms. But the public laboratories have no worthwhile place in this whole business. For all the tall talk about the “spectacular scope” for S&T collaboration between India and the USA in the public sector, effective funding for this as of now is only about Rs 4 crore a year (that too from leftover PL-480 funds). This is but a drop in the Rs. 9,000 crore plus S&T funding ocean.

Other laboratory chains have not performed much better than the CSIR either. The Indian Council of Agriculture and Research, for instance, continues to be active in many traditional areas. But it has seen its share of new seeds development decline, as has its research output. It cannot even longer evaluate its performance objectively. In the institutions funded by the Department of Biotechnology, there is sobering realisation that “mission mode” targets for new vaccines and diagnostics may be far more difficult to achieve than seemed to be the case in the heady days when biotechnology was declared to be the magic wand to unbounded progress. And most Indian Council of Medical Research institutions remain afflicted with poorly designed and unethically conducted experiments and practices — including trials without informed consent, especially on women; and an obsession with intrusive reproductive technologies, especially for contraception. Under a cruel funding squeeze as a result of neo-liberal policies since the 1990s, the universities are, expectedly, faring even more badly than specialised laboratories.

There are a number of reasons for this rather dismal situation: “brain drain,” inappropriate research priorities, physical ageing of established researchers (about 35,000 of whom are close to or in retirement mode), inadequate funding, falling, per capita research and development (R&D) spending; and perhaps most important, problems with the working environment and growing bureaucratisation or our science institutions, which are now plagued to an even greater extent than ever before by nepotism and corruption in senior personnel selection.

Some of these problems like “brain drain” are old and long-standing. Nor is lack of interest in R&D in private corporations all that new. One consequence of the neo-liberal “free market” policies of the past decade has been unbridled freedom for companies to import technology packages, coupled with a lifting of ceilings on royalty payments. This has removed the R&D incentive for domestic industry to do R&D at home. Similarly, most of our laboratories have long been run in a rather despotic fashion for them to enthuse young researchers. Their administrators are far too powerful and have little accountability.

However, there are some new and dangerous trends in evidence today. Such transparency and probity as there used to exist in the selection of top positions in the best of our S&T institutions is rapidly eroding. Today, six out of the 40 CSIR institutes are headless because of confusion and disputes over top appointments. The recent selection of the director of one of our few world-class establishments, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, has come under a cloud — for the first time ever. Even the S.S. Bhatnagar award for scientists under 45, which used to be truly prestigious, has lost some of its shine because of the high degree of nepotism and favouritism involved.

Our S&T has also become heavily militarised. Today, just three departments of the Central Government (atomic energy, space and defence research) account for 71 per cent of all Central S&T spending — a ratio probably unequalled anywhere else. The budget for atomic energy alone exceeds the combined spending of the CSIR and ICAR put together. To top it all, scientists who work on defence-related projects are being given special pay. This devalues socially relevant science. None of this augurs well for India.

Establishing socialism today
by Bharat Jhunjhunwala

THE CPM has declared in its recently adopted party programme that the “intrusion of religion in the economic, political and administrative life of the nation” must be stopped. It is indeed true that religious organisations have misused religion to secure their political ends throughout human history. But the party should also realise that socialism can only be established by placing spirituality in the forefront. The party must certainly oppose all religious bigotry but, in the same breath, also support spiritual religiosity.

The basic problem of socialism of all hues is that it ignores the question of mental inequality. It might somehow be possible for economic and social equality to be established but mental equality is an impossible proposition. We see everyday that two brothers inherit equal property but they become unequal few years down the road.

In Russia everybody received an equal amount of privatisation voucher in the mid-nineties but while a few became millionaires, many lost their chance. The cultural revolution was hijacked by the “leaders” of the youth brigades in their selfish ends and the movement had to be recalled by Mao. These are not accidents arising out of “serious mistakes” as the CPM would like us to believe. These are fundamental flaws in the Marxist theory which need to be sorted out. The basic problem is that economic equality gets nullified by mental inequality. And since mental capacities are different, economic inequality will win the day, no matter how much equalisation is attempted. In fact, when the inequality of the mind is combined with the inequality of money, the latter grows exponentially.

The problem is that all socialists consider the objective of society to be economic prosperity and also seek equality. One cannot hold that the social objective is to generate wealth and also ask the rich to give up the same wealth. Why should one give up that which is his objective? Economic equality, therefore, is not possible. But equity might be.

Some “higher” objective has to be placed before society if economic equity to be established. The fullback of the football team gives the ball to the forward because the objective of both is to win the game. If they both started with the objective of retaining the ball then the fullback would hardly do “tyaga” of the ball. Equity in one domain can only be established if there is a higher objective which makes it possible for redistribution to take place.

The only way to secure some redistribution — or equity — is to get the elite to run after an ice-cream and give the laddoo to the working class. This ice-cream cannot be material wealth. As long as the objective of society continues to be material welfare, the working class will get no material welfare.

This higher objective can be spiritualism. The rich people distribute “roti” at a “langar” not because they themselves want more “rotis” but because they get some spiritual benefits from such “tyaga”. A rich man gives up “roti” in the name of God and feels happy. A poor man gets “roti” in the name of God and is happy. It is the common higher objective of God that makes such happy redistribution possible.

Spiritualism has a peculiar advantage: it means different things to different people. To the elite it means mental peace. To the poor it means invigorating food. By placing before society the objective of spiritual growth we can attain material redistribution. Just as the fullback gives up the ball in order to himself win the game, the elite can give up material wealth if they have to win the game of spiritual growth.

In the process, however, inequality will get strengthened in this other domain. The spiritual development of the rich who give will proceed faster than the poor who receive. Nay, it is even possible that one who receives may lose some spiritual merit in the process. Nevertheless, equality in the material domain can be established.

Marx himself was a spiritual person. He did not personally go after the objective of material well-being. Nor did he hanker after political power. He was deeply moved by the appalling conditions of the working class in England then. He wanted to improve their lot. He used his unequal mental power for the welfare of the people rather than amass more wealth. That was his spirituality. The same holds for a few exceptional working class leaders. Lenin and Mao worked for the poor only because their personal objectives were non-material. But these were isolated individuals who pursued these higher objectives against the mainstream materialist society. The problem is how to generalise these examples. How to get many of the elite follow the same path that Lenin and Mao had treaded.

Spirituality provides precisely such an objective. The only way for socialism to be established is for society to embrace the objective of spiritual development.

All socialists should make a distinction between opposing religious bigotry and spiritualism. If they are serious about the establishment of material equity, the only wayout is to place a higher objective before society. Spiritualism fits the bill. It has the peculiar ability of providing food to the poor and mental peace to the elite. It is an objective that can be accepted by both contending parties.

The CPM should, therefore, certainly oppose religious bigotry. But it should not only allow but also actively solicit the intrusion of spirituality in the economic, political and administrative life of the nation. 

Poor souls
by N. S. Tasneem

THERE was a time when the people were really poor. They had no money to spend but they were rich in thoughts for the good of others. A few more chips at that time would have changed the very complexion of their existence. I started in the early fifties with Rs 135 in summer and Rs 155 in winter. That was Shimla where 20 rupees were given as winter allowance, which we called coal advance, from November to March. This increase was welcome as the money was spent in buying woollens. In the houses no smoke emerged from the chimneys of the fireplaces (angeethies in the kitchen served the purpose well) as burning coals in them was considered a luxury which very few could afford.

Despite meagre resources and the paucity of funds, the spirit of camaraderie, the eagerness to be of some help to others, prevailed in society. The resources were few but there was no dearth of bonhomie. Every occasion that demanded some sort of celebration was considered a boon and provided food for thought both before the function and afterwards. In sickness the colleagues came to help not as a duty but as genuine response to a situation. There was no pretence or munh-rakhni (public show) of any sort. Money was also advanced by others to help tide over a difficult phase in one’s life. A simple cup of tea delighted the heart as it had in it the warmth of feelings and the sweetness of goodwill. In the get-together of the families the atmosphere was that of an extended family where vivacity and ebullience dominated.

Now when I look around in this metropolitan city, I find everything in plenty except the fellow-feelings. The minds appear to have been wrapped up in polythene and there is no scope for the fresh air to enter inside. A host of people move about in the vehicles of different shapes and structures. They stop gingerly at the red lights and rush forward recklessly at the green signals. Like automatons they perform their duties, unmindful of the plight of others around. Everyone appears to be tense and over-strung and ready to burst out at the slightest provocation. No logic is welcome except that of self-interest and self-aggrandisement. Mind is attuned to self-projection and focused on selfishness.

Selfishness leads to meanness without giving any warning signals. One falls in line with others without being aware of the peculiar position. Silence, deep as in a deserted basement, prevails in the minds and the words uttered on rare occasions smack of aversion and antipathy. No forthright expression of views, no frank discussion and no reaching out to the heart of the matter. Uncertainty prevails and the dread of the unknown weighs heavy on the mind. Money is spent, when the occasion so demands, lavishly and obscenely. With no holds barred, the social image is built up and maintained. For the sake of contacts, social as well as official, nothing is too expensive or beyond the reach. With such a mindset, there is no scope for the thawing of the frozen springs of magnanimity and benevolence.

In this age of commercialisation and consumerism, when there is a glut of commodities in the market and the currency notes are shuffled frequently like playing cards, the human souls have shrivelled and crinkled. The poor souls residing in opulent frames have created a strange paradox in society. The people moving around, particularly in the higher echelons, appear to have minds but no hearts. They can spend a lot on themselves and their progeny but when the occasion comes for handing over something worthwhile to others, as a gesture of goodwill, they recede into the cave of niggardliness. It is not the gift, expensive or otherwise that matters, but the working of the mind of the person concerned comes into the focus. The poor souls exhibit themselves unabashedly when something is to be parted with for the sake of the joy of social interaction.

Realpolitik
by P. Raman
Stable at top, rotting at root

DURING an informal chat, a political commentator recently mentioned two puzzles. How there exists a wide schism between the stable and able edifice of the Vajpayee Government at the Centre and the poor state of the BJP in most states; and how the recent election results have, by and large, produced extremely surprising results. These two seemingly unrelated riddles vividly explain several intrinsic aspects of contemporary politics.

Taking up the last first, if the recent elections have brought shock results, the fault lies with us, not the voters. If we in the media fail to assess the public mood in a given situation and faithfully report it, that only exposes the anachronism of scarce information amidst a communication explosion. This writer was among those who covered the first NT Rama Rao election in Andhra Pradesh. After a brief tour, we all knew that it was an NTR wave. But a senior journalist of a very prominent Delhi daily who was specially flown in a day before the election, sent a six-column page-one lead on a ‘Congress sweep’. “I did my job,” back in Delhi he said.

Unfortunately, this is now being replicated on a large scale. Pre-election reports and poll predictions by institutions are fast losing credibility. Even in Delhi, there were hushed voices of a Mamata-BJP rout in the West Bengal civic polls. Why did we fail to honestly reflect the reality on the ground? Thus the ‘puzzle’ mentioned by the highly respected commentator, has been our own creation. We can no more dismiss it as an accident. When obsessions, individual or collective, voluntary or compulsive, overwhelm truth, it will be the end of credibility. Even in those professionally difficult decades, we used to throw broad hints of reality without being seen as offending the political establishment.

West Bengal was repeated at Saron in UP where the ruling party lost its deposit and stood fourth. We failed to give even a hint of the twin upswing by the BSP and Kalyan Singh. Understandably, Bihar has been the worst case. Almost the entire media bombarded with stories of Laloo’s ‘jungle raj’ being on fire. This was ably augmented by the opinion polls. Even the exit polls by DD predicted a Laloo rout. During the last Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, the debate in some ‘national’ dailies was whether Sunder Lal Patwa will take charge as Chief Minister or one of his rivals. But Digvijay Singh had a clean sweep. The tragedy has been that failure to reflect truth hurts everyone. The false sense of security and feel-good mood would make the establishment lethargic. Unreal projections would also alert the opponents to strive harder and win.

The other riddle — the dichotomy of the good governance at the Centre and the unenviable plight of the NDA parties in many States — has its roots in the loose kind of power sharing at the Centre. In States, an altogether different kind of political dynamics work. Even those parties who eagerly share power at the Centre, object to a similar reciprocal arrangement in their own states. Different rules work at different levels and thus the relationship and political parameters vastly vary at the grassroots level. Provincialisation of politics has curtailed the old-style pan-Indian perceptions and judgement.

Take the widely acclaimed popularity of the Prime Minister and his full acceptability within the NDA. We all know the popularity chart is usually drawn on the basis of the rather abstract media image or opinion polls conducted on a narrow urban base. The daily internet surveys — like the daily lotteries — represent only a few cyber addicts. None of these is considered free from pitfalls. Vajpayee has certainly emerged as the most acceptable coalition Prime Minister. His writ runs unchallenged within the NDA. But the acceptability of the allies may be different from the electoral endorsement by the general public.

Under our present complex coalitional system, factors other than the image of the Prime Minister or the perceived good governance operates at the local levels. Take the case of the government’s ‘bold’ decision on prices and subsidies. For voters of the vast backward rural areas, it has an entirely a different meaning. Kalyan Singh says he has used this popular anger in Soros constituency with great effect. He says when Mayawati and Mulayam also played on it, it had caught the voters’ imagination. West Bengal Congress leaders also make similar points. Thus what we admire in the Capital as prime ministerial assertion, seems to have been proved a political burden at the grounds level.

The coalition-based expansion has pushed the BJP into two different kinds of problems. First, the BJP’s own stagnation both in terms of seats won and organisational advantages. Second, incessant tussles and backbiting for domination with the NDA allies in most States. Despite the perceived Vajpayee wave, the BJP itself did not gain in the last Lok Sabha elections. Numerical advantage has gone entirely to the allies who, however, assert that it was they who helped the BJP, and not the other way round. The party has enough reasons to worry about its eroding support base in the Hindi heartland where it had once ruled supreme.

The BJP has just less than one-third of the total strength of about 1610 seats in the state assemblies in the Hindi region constituting Madhya Pradesh, UP, Delhi, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, and Haryana. This dwindling role should cause serious concern for its strategy planners. In Himachal Pradesh alone (and Gujarat outside the Hindi belt) has it managed to have its own strength to run a government, that too after a few byelections. Though the BJP has won 177 seats in UP out of 425, in the last Lok Sabha elections it could wrest only 112 Assembly segments. Of 320 seats in MP, it has only 114. In the Rajasthan Assembly elections, it also fared badly. Its tally in Haryana is just six out of the total 90 and 67 in the 324-Bihar Assembly.

The BJP’s stagnation has not entirely been due to its inability to wrest more seats from the allies. Its failures are sharper in its traditional strongholds like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan where it had contested elections without an alliance. Another factor that should worry the BJP high command has been the ill-effects of the rapid erosion of its cadre calibre. The large army of new entrants to the BJP are mostly floating enthusiasts. Those who joined the ranks during the Ayodhya agitation are relatively more committed. But the dumping of Hindutva has made the bulk of them inactive.

The most tricky crowd of BJP adherents are those who were taken in by the projected image of Vajpayee and the new respectability attached to the party. In 1984, there was a similar wave in favour of a ‘fresh young man with lots of new ideas’. Naturally, loyalty of such transient crowds can be skindeep. In any case, they are not like the traditionally hardened BJP cadre who had stood the test of time. A slight disillusionment can drive them away to any others who offers similar aura. Effective cadre control always renders revolted leaders irrelevant in all cadre-based parties. This was what had happened to Shankarsinh Vaghela. Now if Kalyan Singh sways away large chunk of BJP supporters, it can be only due to the switching of loyalties by the new crowd of undomiciled cadre. This is something that should cause concern to the BJP high command.

This is compounded by the sudden spurt in the BJP’s war with the local allies. Open threats on political poaching — something deadly sinful under the coalition dharma — has soured the 16-year-old ties between the BJP and Shiv Sena. The BJP’s ongoing campaign to expand itself to ‘cent per cent areas’ (the entire Maharashtra) as against the 40:60 seat sharing ratio with the Shiv Sena, has caused new strain. The Shiv Sena too has launched a counter plan and is reportedly thinking of reviving its old parochial plank to outwit the BJP. Even in Orissa, the fratricide had led to cancellation of public programmes in some places.

Om Prakash Chautala’s repeated snubbings, beginning with the paltry allocation of seats to the BJP, has led to great disillusionment. The BJP has opposed imposition of fresh taxes and introduction of English from class one as a subject. However, the party has no option but to eat the humble pie. In Himachal Pradesh, it has been a four-way war of attrition among the BJP and its ally HVC and the powerful factions within both parties.

Will such tussles for domination at the local levels endanger the arrangement at the Centre? Not necessarily. Power is a great binding force with its inherent ability to ward off even worse challenges. The BJP managers at the Centre have displayed better dexterity to handle such political crises. Unlike the Sonia Congress, the BJP high command can effortlessly silence its grumbling state leaders. The latest case was that of Mamata Bannerjee who had stopped attending to her Rail Bhavan office in protest against state BJP’s demand for ‘unreasonable’ share of seats in the municipal elections.

A panicked Vajpayee rushed his trouble-shooters, including a PMO official. Soon the BJP state leaders were forced to fall in line with Mamata’s dictates. Last year, Vajpayee had used his own powers to pressurise an unwilling Karnataka unit to enter into an alliance with the JD(U), which included the discredited JD Chief Minister. The state leaders yielded but as in West Bengal, this too proved to be a disaster for the BJP. But despite the BJP high command’s best efforts troubles could emanate from leaders like Mamata Bannerjee who under the changed political equations in West Bengal might turn to the Congress for an alliance after dumping the BJP. 

Spiritual Nuggets

Reflection is the path of immortality, thoughtlessness the path of death. Those who reflect do not die; those who are thoughtless are as if dead already.

— Yajur Veda, XXXVI.17

75 years ago
June 6, 1925

A Discovery

AN Anglo-Indian paper has made a great discovery regarding the Indian problem. In the course of a long article on the “Importance of being Wealthy”, the writer comes to the following conclusion: “The most expensive form of government is democratic government: the public is many-headed and requires, indeed demands, something not far short of infinity to satisfy it. Hence the importance of a democratic government making certain that it is also a wealthy Government”. So, there is no salvation for a poor people Heaven even shuts its doors against the poor. The heaven-born service refuses to serve a poor Government and the blessings of democracy are not intended for the poorer nations! The inference is obvious. Let India be satisfied with foreign autocracy.