Pak may not go in for war
Tribune News Service

JAMMU, June 13 — Notwithstanding the massive military build-up on the entire 1260-km-long border, including the 187-km long international border in the Jammu sector, Pakistan is unlikely to declare an open war against India.

During the past fortnight, the Pakistani authorities have deployed more than 10,000 troops on the border and sent over one lakh additional soldiers on the Line of Control to build war hysteria. Scores of villages across the RS Pura sector, Poonch, Uri and Kupwara have been cleared of civilian population giving an impression that Pakistan was ready to launch an armed attack on Indian soldiers. Heavy war machinery has been installed on the entire border and work on at least 10 new helipads has been taken in hand on a war footing.

Defence experts here are of the opinion that ever since the rise of Pak- sponsored insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir, Islamabad has never felt the need for launching an open war against India. When Pak trained militants played havoc in the Kashmir valley in 1990 they had been assured by their patrons across the border that Pak soldiers would attack Indian posts and capture the valley. It did not happen because by the time militancy was just one year old. Pakistan defence experts had come to the conclusion that the proxy war against India was more result-oriented than a direct armed conflict.

According to these experts, it took Pakistan nearly four months to fortify the positions held by infiltrators and Pak soldiers in the Kargil-Dras belt. Finding that dislodging the infiltrators from the vantage posts belonging to India was going to be a time consuming affair entailing great human sacrifices and enormous expenses , Islamabad has adopted tough postures before and during the Foreign Ministers level talks in Delhi on Saturday.

Instead of responding to India's suggestion that all infiltrators be withdrawn and the status quo ante be maintained on the Line of Control, the Pakistani Foreign Minister, according to informed sources, suggested to India to stop ground and air operations against the infiltrators and accept redemarcation of the Line of Control on the basis of the positions held by the two opposing armies.

The experts are of the opinion that had India accepted the Pak proposal it would have meant losing all strategic areas in the Kargil and Dras sectors, besides increasing the vulnerability of the entire Ladakh region to Pak attacks.

Reports received here from across the border have revealed that Pakistan has made elaborate arrangements on what the defence experts call "needling" Indian troops by pushing large groups of militants, including Afghan guerrillas, into Jammu and Kashmir. It is part of the over-all Pak plan to encourage armed encounters between Indian soldiers and Pak-trained militants within the Indian area in Jammu and Kashmir.

Those experts are of the firm opinion that heavy military build-up across the border has been ordered to open several fronts against India in Jammu and Kashmir so that from one area or the other the militants and infiltrators were able to sneak into the state for kicking up subversive violence.

Knowing that India is committed to dislodging the infiltrators from their camps in the Kargil-Dras belt Islamabad has hiked the defence budget by 11 per cent to give an impression that it feared an armed attack from India. New Delhi has made it clear to Islamabad that it had no interest in violating the sanctity of the Line of Control but since Pakistani infiltrators and soldiers had intruded into Indian territory in the Kargil-Dras belt it had to take appropriate measures to repulse the attack and push back the intruders.

Defence experts say that instead of opting for an open war Pakistan would continue to launch limited attacks on Indian posts and villages in various sectors. As in the past Pak troops would continue to launch an attack in the Uri sector today, in Kupwara tomorrow in Poonch the next day and in R S Pura and Akhnoor some other day. And maximum concentration will be the Kargil-Dras belt where during the past one week Pak infiltrators and soldiers have launched armed attacks on Indian positions in new areas.

Devil called APM

SRINAGAR, June 13 (PTI) — Compared to a landmine which can blow off even an armoured vehicle, an anti-personnel mines APM is a tiny explosive but the Army is well aware of the devil in it.

The armed forces, while conducting anti-insurgency operations in various places in Jammu and Kashmir, have seized thousands of such APMs in the past three years but not a single detonation by militants has been reported so far.

"However, the interesting part is that though a large number of such mines have been seized by the Army during its anti-insurgency operations, not a single case of detonation by militants has been reported so far," defence sources said.

It required top class skill and expertise to handle an APM — to plant the pin of the explosive in the proper place — as it would explode in the hands in case of any mistake, they said.

The ISI of Pakistan had smuggled in a large number of APMs in the state, but the militants were reluctant to use them, knowing full well the hazards involved, they said.

The sources said the dangers involved in planting an APM could be gauged from the fact that a 3 per cent casualty rate was accepted as normal in the Army when its personnel were trained in handling them.

"Even when an Army personnel takes training to handle these mines, he never knows when it would go off and maim him for life," they said, adding the personnel might do everything right, but a defective detonator might spell doom.

The story was more or less similar in case of landmines, they said, and added "among hundreds militants, there would be hardly one or two landmine experts".