It is exactly two weeks since Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met his Pakistan counterpart Nawaz Sharif in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, but so far there are no signs of any positive outcome of the high-profile first summit between the two leaders.
The big decision in New York was to have the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of the two armies meet and “suggest effective means” to restore peace and tranquillity on the Line of Control (LoC) and ensure the sanctity of the 2003 Ceasefire Agreement. A fortnight later there is no word even on the dates on when the two DGMOs would meet. Meanwhile, ceasefire violations continue unabated and the Army has had to launch a major operation to clear Keran sector of militants.
All this is in sharp contrast to the expectations that were generated before the two met. Sharif had come promising “a new beginning” and there was even talk of his offering a major trade proposal that included bestowing on India the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status. For Manmohan Singh, had all gone well, he could have crowned his second term as Prime Minister by opening a new chapter in bilateral relations with Pakistan and paying a visit to his hometown Gah, located across the border.
Yet in a scene that has now become familiar with most Indo-Pak summits, the run-up to the meeting saw extraneous events conspire to force the leaders into reverting to hardline positions to placate domestic constituencies. These included the twin terror attacks in the Jammu region, the continued violation of ceasefire on the LoC by the Pakistan Army and Rahul Gandhi’s outburst that undermined Manmohan Singh’s authority.
Then, prior to the Indo-Pak summit, in his meeting with US President Barack Obama in Washington DC, Manmohan said he had explained “the difficulties that we face given the fact that the epicentre of terrorism remains focused in Pakistan.” Clearly smarting over Manmohan’s comment, Sharif is said to have come up with the analogy of the “dehati aurat”, which he denied later. Soon after, at the UN General Assembly, both Prime Ministers spoke tough on relations between the two.
Even before the summit, lines were drawn. After the meeting, National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon said the two leaders had agreed that “the precondition for a forward movement in the relationship, which they both desire, is really an improvement in the situation on the LoC.”
My assessment is that the summit was both a failure and a missed opportunity. Both sides had expended much political capital to meet but came up with little to show. Instead, by setting the precondition of improvement in the situation on the LoC and action on terror to take forward the relations, Manmohan and Sharif have handed over the driver’s seat to the Pakistan Army, which has never shown keenness to accelerate the peace process.
Sharif came away from the summit with his authority considerably undermined and status diminished. By his loose talk and inability to get the Pakistan Army to silence the guns on the LoC before the summit, Sharif failed to capitalise on a chance to make a breakthrough he so wanted.
By complaining to Obama, Manmohan Singh expressed a lack of confidence in the new Pakistan Prime Minister’s ability even before they had met. The Indian Prime Minister was clearly at odds with his stated policy that differences between India and Pakistan should be handled bilaterally. Sharif had a right to feel miffed.
Sharif then misjudged the situation by presuming that the UPA II was on its last legs and that Manmohan Singh was a lame-duck Prime Minister. He seemed to indicate that he would prefer to wait for the next general election and make his big trade offering to a new government in India.
By not trusting his instincts and having the courage of conviction to improve relations with India, Sharif has again given those against the peace process a chance to harp on his “deceitful” behaviour in the past, including on Kargil. After all, it was Sharif who pushed for a summit meeting with Manmohan Singh and if it was just to get the DGMOs to talk to each other then the Pakistan Prime Minister had wasted a golden opportunity to set the agenda.
Yet all is not lost. Manmohan Singh exhibited courage by going ahead with his meeting with Sharif despite stiff objections. If Sharif is smart then after he gets the Army Chief of his choice in place, he should rapidly restore tranquillity on the LoC and by December unilaterally offer trade concessions to India as a gesture of goodwill. Manmohan Singh may then yet fulfil his dream of improving relations with Pakistan and visiting his hometown before he lays down office. For Sharif, the new beginning he dreamed of with India would have kick-started.
raj@tribuneindia.com
By setting the precondition of improvement in the situation on the LoC and action on terror to take forward bilateral relations, Manmohan and Sharif handed over the driver’s seat to the Pakistan Army, which has never shown keenness to accelerate the peace process.
