E D I T O R I A L P A G E |
Friday, November 27, 1998 |
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An
ordeal is over Another
rail disaster Game
of political survival India
and food security |
Globalisation:
demystifying a myth Nothing
to crow over
Situation
at Panipat |
India and
food security SINCE the days India was forced to import wheat from the USA under PL-480 in early sixties, it has been our overriding concern to achieve self-sufficiency in food production. Over the years since then India has made steady progress in this direction through the introduction of high-yielding seed varieties, especially of wheat. At the moment, India is self-sufficient in meeting its food requirements. However, as one study points out, things will not be the same by the year 2020. In this study, prepared for the International Food Policy Research Institute, it has been stated that if food productivity continues to decline, the demand for cereals will exceed domestic production by 23 million metric tons by 2020. India by then will be a net importer of foodgrains to feed its population. This eventuality, the study points out, can be averted if we endeavour to maintain the high growth rate in the productivity of the earlier Green Revolution years. The available data show that in less than three decades the foodgrain output has increased from 72 million metric tons in 1965-66 to 185 million metric tons in 1994-95. Imports are negligible as of now. However, in the past one and a half decade the growth in productivity of grain production has slowed down to a significant extent mainly because of falling public investment in agriculture. As for the private investment in agriculture, there has been no appreciable increase. Therefore, India will have to think seriously in this direction, plan and execute an agricultural policy which will help it to remain self-sufficient in grain production or even overshoot self-sufficiency by a sufficient margin. The potential is there. A comparison of the productivity of Indian agriculture to that in other countries shows that Indian agriculture is far behind and has a long way to go to realise its goals; and to reach their levels we will have to make conscious efforts to increase our productivity and bring it at par with their levels. Take, for instance, China which has a large population to feed. With only 100 million hectares of agricultural land, China is producing 400 million metric tons of foodgrains (in Chinese statistics, the term grain includes potatoes and around 10 to 20 per cent of grains are actually potato crop), while India, with its 146 million hectares of agricultural land, produces on an average 185 million metric tons of food; Indias aspiration is to realise the target of 200 million metric tons of grain production by the year 2000! If we take the production per hectare of individual crops, we will find that we are much behind other countries. The average production of rice per hectare in India is around 1,756 kg compared to 5,475 of North Korea. We are harvesting only 2,117 kg of wheat per hectare compared to 7,716 by the Netherlands. Similarly, India produces 1606 kg of corn per hectare compared to 9091 of corn per hectare by Greece. Take soyabean and groundnut, it is the same story. The production of soyabean per hectare in India is 804 kg compared to 3,453 kg in Zimbabwe. As for groundnut, India harvests only 929 kg per hectare compared to 4,600 kg per hectare harvested by Israel it is getting five times more groundnut per hectare than India. Similarly, India produces 15,817 kg of potatoes per hectare compared to 45,349 kg produced by Belgium. As for sugarcane, India produces 65,382 kg per hectare as against 135,448 kg per hectare produced by Peru. If we take these comparisons seriously, which we as a nation should, then India has a lot to explain and a lot to do. It may be all right to have a record harvest and overflowing granaries in a relative sense, but we are just able to meet the domestic demand for foodstuff and may have surplus to see us through one or two bad harvests. For a country which also looks forward to entering the international agricultural market, this is not enough. It is necessary to have a substantial surplus of agricultural products every year on a fairly continuous basis if we are to emerge as one of the important exporters of agricultural products in the world like Australia, the USA or the EEC countries. The figures also show that
the potential of increasing agricultural productivity is
immense. If other countries can get three to five times
the production per hectare of any crop, why cant
India at least double its output per hectare of the
agricultural produce? The potential for such an increase
exists and there is no reason why India cannot achieve
this. INFA |
Globalisation:
demystifying a myth IS globalisation the next stage in the evolution of human societies? Certainly not. Yet we are persuaded to believe that it is inevitable, that it represents a higher stage in the evolution of humanity. We must resist these bogus claims. What are the facts? It all began with the oil crisis in the early seventies. High oil prices led to high debts. High debts led to a debt crisis. Many banks faced bankruptcy, including the World Bank. The issue before the IMF and the World Bank was how to make the debtors solvent. It was in response to this that the structural adjustment policies (SAP) were announced. It was claimed by the IMF and the World Bank that SAP would help the developing countries overcome their debt problem. Major elements of the SAP were: reduction of the state sector, promotion of private enterprise and the opening up of the economy to western MNCs. The debt crisis paved the way for the large-scale entry of foreign companies, especially if they promised export promotion. These foreign enterprises were in search of cheaper costs. Naturally, there was local resistance to the intrusion of MNCs. This was what led to the call for globalisation and level playing fields by the MNCs. Globalisation was neither a well thought out system nor was it a higher stage in the evolution of man. SAP was the real basis of globalisation. It was centred on the integration of international markets for goods and services, investment, technologies, finance and, to some extent, labour blurring national borders and curbing the autonomy of nations to shape their future. Let us not forget that all these were undertaken to prevent the bankruptcy of western banks through default by debtors. This was the case when the US mobilised a massive aid programme for Mexico. The idea was to save the banks from bankruptcy. This was the case during the recent Asian crisis, when Washington mounted a massive aid programme. We will be making the greatest mistake if we infer from these that these were all part of a natural evolution. Far from it. Instead, these were crises made by men. Nothing inevitable about them. In the process, America has been able to open up the nearly closed economies of the developing countries, a major objective of Washington. Today the demand is for free movement of capital and companies, and unhindered access to any and every space in the economy of developing countries. This they call the new world order. Should we succumb to such pressures? What is Americas locus standi to impose a new world order? And that without a discussion among all nations! There are two distinct opinions in regard to the new dispensation. It is said that as America has won in the competition of the two systems capitalism and socialism the capitalist model be acceptable to all. Others feel that there are cultural and civilisational peculiarities among nations which should be respected. But where was the victory of capitalism? If socialism failed, it was the failure of the socialists. The fact is: the US model has not been a success even in America! It has failed to overcome the age-old problems of hunger, poverty, disease, ignorance, unemployment etc. The US model is primarily responsible for the growing inequality between the poor and rich nations. How can the US model be acceptable to the poor in these circumstances? If we go by growth models, then Asia has a better claim for recognition. China, South Korea, for example. Even India can claim to be a good model of mixed economy. It has a good record of being free from crises. The Russians take the Indian model ideal for their purpose. In any case, the USA is no more the supreme economic power. Today the European Union is far more important to the developing countries than America. The EU has a GDP of $8 trillion, a quarter of the worlds GDP, with a per capita of over $20,000. This represents enormous purchasing power, rivalled by only North America and Japan. In the past 50 years, Asia has been the most dynamic economic region. And it has been guided by its own experience, not by the US model. If Asia keeps up its growth, China will emerge by 2020 as the supreme economic power. The USA will be second, Japan third and the fourth will be India, followed by Indonesia, South Korea, Germany, Thailand, France, Brazil in that order (World Bank estimate). Do these facts give America the right to shape the worlds future? On the contrary the time has come to introduce democracy in the shaping of the worlds future economy. As a first step in this direction, the developing countries should hold their reserves in Euro and not in US dollars. Once the role of the dollar is reduced in the world, the USA can be brought to its senses. But this is not the only factor going against the USA. With the collapse of Russia, it was felt that there would be no force to checkmate the USA. Russia has just recovered from its illusions about the market economy. The Russian people have lost all their social gains. Corruption and criminalisation have overwhelmed their society. They have been reduced to poverty and hunger and the economy has been reduced to half its size. It will take years before Russia can restore the conditions it enjoyed during the best days of socialism. The experience of Russia and CIS countries shows that it is dangerous to apply the US model. Russians say that their culture and traditions are so different that they cannot imitate foreign models. One of the cases made against Communism in Russia is that the Russians paid a heavy price for the promises of Communism. But havent they paid a higher price already for the mirage of abundance under market economy? Today, the Russians regret their wrong decisions. They are no more enamoured of the free market. They may not want a Stalinist regime, but they certainly will not embrace the US model. In fact, they want to oppose the hegemony of the USA. And they want a strategic partnership with China and India. As for South-East Asia, it has had a bitter experience with free market experiment. With this one crisis, America has damaged its position for a long time in Asia. It is difficult to say where the South-East Asian countries will go, for they are not truly democratic countries. This explains why they fell into the trap of speculators. But it is difficult to believe that the millions of people who have been pauperised will ever allow repetition of free market experiments. Both China and Japan are more likely to be cautious in opening up their economies to the Western MNCs or in permitting unregulated conditions. The destruction of the bipolar world is a major factor affecting international relations. For all practical purposes, we live in a unipolar world, in which the USA maintains the world order. But as it plunges from one crisis to another, it is evident that the system it is trying to impose on the world is faulted. And what is more, the future of America is itself uncertain. More the reason, why it will try to impose its will on the rest of the world. Globalisation is a means for this purpose. We must have faith in our
mixed economy. We must try to make it more perfect. This
will be in keeping with our resolve to maintain our
political independence. If we are serious about promoting
nonalignment, we cannot blindly support globalisation and
the new world order. This is to accept American hegemony
over the world. |
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