Shimla, March 5
Contrary to the general mood in the country where political leaders of different hues are jumping into Narendra Modi's bandwagon, the BJP in Himachal has not only failed to bring back its breakaway group, but also witnessed the exit of a sitting MP.

Efforts to merge the Himachal Lokhit Party (HLP) with the BJP also failed. In another embarrassment to the state BJP, Rajan Sushant, who won the Kangra seat in 2009 on the BJP ticket, joined the Aam Aadmi Party ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. Sushant accused the Prem Kumar Dhumal-led government of corruption.

The party is aware of its weaknesses and had made desperate attempts to bring back the rebels. However, most of the leaders who rejoined the party were 'expelled' leaders and not those who quit the party on their own.

The lack of enthusiasm in the state BJP leadership, despite the Modi hype, could also be related to the general trend in Himachal, which usually goes with the ruling party.

The BJP had to fall back upon on veteran leader Shanta Kumar to contest from Kangra, who was marginalised and had even announced his retirement from electoral politics. The party has no other leader to challenge the Congress.

The party was hoping to bring back Maheshwar Singh to challenge Pratibha Singh, sitting Congress MP from Mandi and Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh's wife. However, its efforts did not succeed.

In 2009, Maheshwar Singh lost by a slender margin of about 10,000 votes from Mandi and after his exit, the BJP fared badly in the Mandi Lok Sabha by-poll in June 2013.

The BJP was in power in the state during the 2009 Lok Sabha polls and won three out of four seats. The party polled 51.89 per cent votes. It was ousted in the 2012 Assembly polls and its vote share shrunk to 38.47 per cent. There is strong anti-incumbency against the sitting MPs who want to contest polls again.

BJP's performance

The Janata party, of which Jan Sangh was biggest constituent, emerged as a strong alternative in 1977 ousting the Congress from power for the first time. It won all the four Lok Sabha seats and 53 out of 68 Assembly seats in the state. In the 1980 Lok Sabha, the Congress won all four seats.

After the disintegration of the Janata Party, the BJP emerged as a new incarnation and filled the space of the Opposition. The Congress could only win 31 out of 68 seats in the 1982 Assembly polls and failed to get majority.

The party was wiped out in 1984 Lok Sabha and routed in the mid-term Assembly polls in 1985, but bounced back winning three out of four Lok Sabha seats in 1989, polling 45.25 per cent votes. The Congress was routed in the Assembly polls in 1990, while BJP swept the polls winning 46 Assembly seats.

The 1991 Lok Sabha saw a decline in popularity of BJP, but being in power, it managed to win Kangra and Hamirpur seats and was polled 42.79 per cent votes. The BJP lost all four seats in 1996 when Congress was virtually wiped out in the north and central India. Its vote share dwindled to 39.62 per cent.

However, in 1998 the party won three out of four Lok Sabha seats with a vote percentage of 51.44 per cent and also managed to form the government in the state by forging post-poll alliance with the Himachal Vikas Congress (HVC).

In 1999, the BJP-HVC alliance swept the polls and the BJP won three seats with 46.27 per cent votes. The Congress returned to power after the 2003 Assembly polls and won three out of four Lok Sabha seats in 2004 elections, while the BJP could only retain the Hamirpur seat.

In the 2007 Assembly polls, the BJP for the first time got a clear majority on its own and wrested three LS seats in 2009, while Congress candidate Virbhadra Singh won the Mandi seat with a margin of over 10,000 votes.

Major concerns

After the failure of "mission repeat" of BJP in 2012 Assembly polls, allegedly on the issue of corruption, the party is now facing the challenge to retain the three seats won by it in 2009. The Mandi Lok Sabha by-election held in June 2013 was a jolt for the party as Congress candidate Pratibha Singh won the seat by a huge margin of 1.34 lakh votes.

The BJP had won the Shimla Lok Sabha seat for the first time in 2009 but retaining the seat in the Congress stronghold would be a herculean task as the party is in power. However, the BJP has a strong hold in Hamirpur seat, which it has won in all the subsequent polls and two by-elections but its vote share, is on decline.

The party candidate won the Hamirpur Lok Sabha by-election in June 2008 by 1.72 lakh votes but the margin reduced by 1 lakh in 2009 general elections and in 2012 Assembly polls, the total lead of the party in 17 Assembly segments falling in this parliamentary constituency, shrunk to 22,000 votes.

Whether, the Modi wave will sweep Himachal or Virbhadra Singh would stem the tide as he did in the 1996 polls is a mute question which would be answered only after the elections.

The three candidates

BJP has shortlisted three candidates for the 2014 Lok Sabha — Shanta Kumar (Kangra), Virender Kashyap (Shimla) and Anurag Thakur (Hamirpur), while the candidate for Mandi is yet to be finalised.

Assembly-wise position of the party

KANGRA: Kangra parliamentary is the weakest for the BJP as it has only one MLA from the 13 Assembly segments. Three out of four Assembly segments of Chamba. Also, two BJP rebels elected as independents in state polls are supporting Congress and to add to BJP woes the sitting MP, Rajan Sushant, has quit.

SHIMLA: BJP has only seven out of 17 MLAs in this constituency. It won only one (out of eight) seat in Shimla, three (out of five) in Solan and Sirmaur districts.

MANDI: BJP has only six seats out of 17 seats in this segment, five in Mandi and one in Kullu.

HAMIRPUR: Party is strongest in this segment with nine out 17 MLAs but revolt by Independent MLA Rajinder Rana from Sujanpur has made it a little tough for the party. Rana is supporting Congress and is also a front runner for the party's ticket to Lok Sabha.

New Delhi, March 6
Congress' women wing has sent an “ambitious wish list” to the party's manifesto committee ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

The wing wants 20 per cent jobs to be reserved for women at all levels in all law-enforcement agencies in the country. The All India Mahila Congress, in its draft sent to the Congress Lok Sabha Manifesto Committee headed by Defence Minister AK Antony, has also demanded right to shelter for households falling above the poverty line and below the middle class cap, with women to be treated as the head of the family.

Shoba Oza, president, All India Mahila Congress, said: “We have asked for 20 per cent reservation for women in the police forces and the judicial services. The quota should be provided at all levels of these law-enforcement agencies. That's the only way to make the country safer for women.”

The panel’s recommendation has been borrowed from Karnataka, where the incumbent Congress government has reserved 20 per cent jobs for women in the police forces.

"We have studied the Karnataka model and cited it," Oza said.

The panel also recommended job reservation for women in private companies. "This experiment, too, has worked successfully in Karnataka. There is ample field evidence that affirmative action helps. We have proposed 20 per cent as the base cap. At least that much should be achieved," the All India Mahila Congresspresident said.

The Mahila Congress wish list will be discussed at the next meeting of the manifesto committee, which is expected to be held later this week.

Bathinda, March 6
When Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal asserted, during the Agriculture Summit in Chandigarh recently, that subsidy to farmers would not be withdrawn as long as he was alive, he underlined the importance of this huge chunk of voters.

The subsidy to the farming community will continue despite objections from experts and the World Trade Organisation.

With the families of farmers and farm labourers constituting nearly half of the 1.92-crore voters in the state, the importance of this section cannot be underestimated. It is more significant for the Shiromani Akali Dal, who owes its several victories to the rural population, mainly the farming community.

No wonder the CM trashed all the talk and discussion at the summit by talking about subsidies, much to the chagrin of the experts. The next day, his daughter-in-law and Bathinda MP Harsimrat Kaur Badal, seeking a re-election, released 7,200 tube well connections pending for over a decade. Experts and scientists have been calling for diversification of farming to reduce stress on underground water. A few days later, Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal announced that all pending tube well connections, estimated in thousands, would be released in six months.

In between, the state government budged before the Ugraha group of farming community and agreed to pay pending compensation to the families of farm debt suicide victims. All three major announcements were aimed at pleasing the half of the voting population.

Ground reality

Farmers do not vote as a group. They prefer personal issues over policies and yet political parties vie to attract their votes by promising sops and relief. Though government policies in rhetoric are aimed at helping the marginal farmer, this part of the community remains neglected.

Political parties think that if they procure wheat and paddy in time and at good rates, farmers would be happy. This deviates the attention of policy makers from the real issues.

Ajmer Singh Lakhowal, president, Bharti Kisan Union, said: "Unfortunately the farming community remains divided."

"Most of the farmers vote on the basis of village-level politics or simply go against their rival groups. If they vote as a group or at least take up their issues together, they can play a decisive role.

The stats

Experts cite figures to highlight the importance of farmers. Sukhpal Singh, an agriculture expert of Punjab Agricultural University (PAU), said farming was passing through a critical phase where the government policies could play a decisive role on the financial well-being of farmers and protection of environment. He said though the emphasis was on giving subsidies, providing minimum support price, free or subsidised power, tube well connections, the government needed to do more on diversification and food-processing units.

"There are 10.58 lakh farming families in the state. Add to it 15.90 lakh farm labourers. The total population related to farming turns out to be above 90 lakh, which is almost half of the voting population. The importance of framing policies for this part of society is further emphasised as from among the 98.97 lakh total workers in the state, 61 lakh are related to farming," Sukhpal said.

He said the sheer numbers caught the attention of political parties. "All parties offer sops to the community. The policies are short-sighted and aim at immediate gains, but eventually they lead to losses. Experts at the agriculture summit called for reforms and an end to subsidy, but after days of deliberations, the Chief Minister ruled out ending subsidy till he was alive,” he said.

What community representatives say

Bharti Kisan Union president and Punjab Board Chairman Ajmer Singh Lakhowal said though all political parties swore by farmers, behind the scenes they all adopted the divide-and-rule policy. "Farmers are many in number, but poor in unity. Their votes matter, but only in small number. I think their votes are not considered seriously as they vote more on the basis of local village politics rather than government policies," he said.

Lakhowal said political parties exploited the community's traditional mindset and deepened the fissures.

“The PAU struggles to pay its employees. Where is the fund for research? There is talk of diversification and contract farming, but both have their pitfalls," he said.

He said: "There is no income security in crops other than paddy and wheat. Contract farming has failed in China and unfortunately the mindset of farmers here, too, is not inclined towards sharing agriculture tools to reduce the input cost. The government needs to encourage co-operative agriculture."

New Delhi, March 6
Candidates for the 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana are expected to be finalised at the meeting of Congress Central Election Committee to be held here tomorrow. Congress president Sonia Gandhi will chair the meeting which is expected to release the first list of around 100 candidates for the upcoming polls.

While the party has in principle decided to repeat sitting MPs in Haryana except Jitender Malik, who has expressed his unwillingness to re-contest from Sonepat, the debate tomorrow would centre on candidates for Hisar, Ambala and Gurgaon, besides Sonepat.

Sources said Haryana Pradesh Congress chief Ashok Tanwar might be asked to change his Lok Sabha seat from Sirsa to Ambala to strike a finer caste balance among the candidates being fielded.

"So far Tanwar's has been discussed only for Sirsa constituency which he represents. There is, however, talk in the party to consider the possibility of fielding Tanwar from Ambala where non-Valmiki candidates have generally been preferred. This discussion is at a preliminary stage and only the CEC can take a decision in the matter," said a senior Congress leader.

Ambala (Reserved) segment, formerly represented by Kumari Selja, who has moved to Rajya Sabha, is considered a favourable seat for Dalits of the non-Valmiki segment.

"From the Sirsa (Reserved) segment, Valmikis also have a history of fair performance. So, if the Central Election Committee feels, Tanwar's seat may be shifted but this is only a probability. We are also awaiting a policy decision from Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi on whether he wants state Congress chiefs to contest," said a Congress leader.

From Hisar, the party still believes Birender Singh is the best choice, the latter has shown reluctance to contest. "Among next best choices are Prof Sampath Singh and Chattarpal Singh," said a Congress leader, adding that in Ambala, a non-Valmiki is preferable. MLA Anil Dhantari and former Haryana Congress chief Phool Chand Mullana's son Varun Choudhary are also in the race from Ambala. From Gurgaon, Dharam Pal, Capt Ajay Yadav and his son Varun along with Haryana minister Aftab Ahmed are frontrunners.

Chandigarh, March 6
No other party in Haryana is in such crisis as the ruling Congress. Two consecutive terms for the party have led to anti-incumbency, besides factionalism within the state Congress.

Divisions based on political alliances have made the task of newly appointed Pradesh Congress chief Ashok Tanwar daunting. At present, the Congress has nine out of the 10 seats in the Lok Sabha. Given the state of the party, all political rivals are hoping to increase their seat share.

The Congress suffered two setbacks recently - the exit of Gurgaon MP Rao Inderjit Singh and his joining the BJP and Ambala City MLA Venod Sharma quitting to join a rival party. The action of both leaders, known to be astute politicians, indicates dark days ahead for the Congress in Haryana. Political observers, however, feel although the Congress suffered a blow to its image, all is not lost. In a multi-cornered contest that Haryana appears to head towards can throw up many unexpected results.

Developments within the party over the past couple of years don't augur well in terms of winability of seats for the Congress. Union Minister and Ambala MP Kumari Selja and former Finance Minister Birender Singh have come together in raking the issue of partisan development in the state with a majority of benefits going to people of the Jat belt comprising Rohtak and its adjoining districts.

Although, Selja's induction into the Rajya Sabha may have come as a relief to her, but it has set an impression that she had secured her political future sensing the fate of the party in the forthcoming polls.

Till recently, the party has functioned with an ineffective president in Phool Chand Mullana. It is only recently that Sirsa MP has been appointed a full-fledged party chief. It is now to be seen how successful he is in curtailing dissidence and leading the party to victory.

Political mood in the state suggests that the Congress is in no position to repeat the success of the 2009 Parliamentary polls.

In the emerging political scenario, the biggest setback to Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda and the Congress would not be five MLAs or their kin allegedly being caught on camera seeking bribes for facilitating change of land use (CLUs), but his friend and confidant Venod Sharma quitting to join the rival party.

The exit of Gurgaon MP Rao Inderjit Singh and his subsequently joining the BJP was coming for some time as Rao Inderjit had turned a detractor and made allegations against Hooda and his style of functioning. But the move of Venod Sharma has taken everyone by surprise and caused more damage to the Congress than anything else. It is a different matter that Sharma's political calculations have backfired.

At present, there is a question mark over the political future of the five MLAs who defected from the Haryana Janhit Congress to the Congress. There are talks about their going back to the HJC that is in alliance with the BJP and hoping to make a considerable dent in the forthcoming polls.

In case that happens, the Hooda-led Congress government will lose majority, further weakening the position of the party weeks before the state goes to polls.

There is no resolution yet to internecine conflict within the party. Selja and former Finance Minister Birender Singh and a handful of supporters with the duo lose no opportunity to embarrass Hooda. This division with the Congress is expected to harm the party considerably. The new state Congress president is considered to be an outsider despite having been an MP from Sirsa for the past five years. Not many traditional Congressmen want him to establish himself in Haryana at the cost of obscuring their political careers.

The Parliamentary election, which is expected to be contested on the issue of corruption, unequal development and governance, will also raise several issues other than the CLU scandals.

The INLD has raised the issue of Hooda having married twice violating the Hindu Marriage Act. Although, the issues was raised during the just concluded Budget session and then not pursued by the INLD, the INLD has decided to take the issue to the people. It is expected that the Opposition parties will use every possible issue to make the going tough for the Congress.

However, the Congress has already decided to curb the anti-incumbency by bringing several new faces to contest these elections. At least four or five out of the 10 seats will have incumbents being replaced by new and young faces. With Selja's going to the Rajya Sabha, the Ambala (reserved) seat is likely to be contested by Ashok Tanwar.

Tanwar's Sirsa seat will have a new face. Rao Inderjit having gone to the BJP, the Gurgaon seat will also see a new contestant. Jatinder Malik, MP from Sonepat, has already expressed his inability to contest, therefore Sonepat will also get a new candidate. Even from among the sitting MP, there is a move to shuffle the seats among them to minimise anti-incumbency.

The Congress has disqualified all MLAs from contesting the Parliamentary polls, but keeping the chances of candidates to win a seat, this condition may be changed and one could see MLAs like Randeep Surjewal jumping into the fray. If the Kurukshetra seat is allotted to Surjewala, Kurukshetra MP Naveen Jindal may be moved to Hisar, although Jindal has already started his campaign. But the Congress strategy would only be known in the coming days. 

New Delhi, March 6
If the results of the Delhi Assembly elections are any indication then Chandni Chowk MP Kapil Sibal can expect a tough time when he contests the seat for the third consecutive time.

The Congress may not have formally announced Sibal's candidature, but the senior Union Minister has started preparing for the poll battle. "I am going to contest the Lok Sabha elections from Chandni Chowk, let anybody be in the fray," he had said earlier this year.

The constituency

After the advent of the Aam Aadmi Party in the political scenario, a tough fight can be expected for Sibal. Reports that the Congress was forced to drop Chandni Chowk from the list of proposed primaries, after Sibal's resistance, show that the minister is aware of the ground reality.

Comprising 10 Assembly segments of most-congested areas - Chandni Chowk, Sadar Bazar, Ballimaran, Matia Mahal, Adarsh Nagar, Model Town, Shalimar Bagh, Wazirpur, Tri Nagar and Shakur Basti - the constituency offers an interesting mix of sizable upper castes (Brahmin, Bania and Punjabi voters), around 20 per cent Muslims and a strong presence of Scheduled and Backward classes.

Along with the long-standing problems such as encroachment and poor civic amenities, Sibal will also have to justify erratic water and power supply and their inflated bills, poor infrastructure in markets and rising unemployment.

Sibal will have to deal with double-edged anti-incumbency - of the UPA government at the Centre and the just-ousted Sheila Dikshit government in Delhi. His image of a "haughty, inaccessible MP who rarely visited his constituency" will not make the situation any easier.

Mukesh Sharma, an aspirant for the AAP ticket from Chandni Chowk, said: "Sibal is only bothered about his position at the Centre and not the people of his constituency who elected him to power. He has not visited some areas even once in the past five years."

Journalist-turned-politician Ashutosh is now the AAP candidate against Sibal. The BJP is yet to decide on the candidate, but the names doing the rounds are Nalin Kohli and Vijendra Gupta.

The AAP factor

The Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP has broken caste and religious barriers.

Sibal won the 2009 elections by defeating nearest rival Vijender Gupta of the BJP. But the situation changed in 2012 Assembly polls. The AAP won four seats in Chandni Chowk Lok Sabha constituency - Shalimar Bagh, Shakur Basti, Sadar Bazaar and Model Town. BJP won three - Adarsh Nagar, Wazirpur and Trinagar. Congress won two - Chandni Chowk and Ballimaran - and JD (U) Matia Mahal.

Sibal as an MP

Sibal refused to comment on his tenure as the Chandni Chowk MP. "I do not like talking about my achievements," he said.

His supporters talk of 213 projects he launched in his constituency, nearly 142 completed and the rest either in "ongoing" or "status not reported" category, and "maximum utilisation of the MPLADS funds.

BJP's Vijendra Gupta calls Sibal's two consecutive tenures a "total waste of time". "Both the times he won in a wave. He has no clue about the constituency and cannot claim credit for any development in the area. He remained disconnected from people and is extremely unpopular. His overall performance as an MP is a complete failure," he said.

As the Union Minister

As the Cabinet Minister for Human Resources Development for almost three years (May 2009 to October 2012), Sibal brought major changes in India's education system.

Credited with bringing the Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act, Sibal's educational reforms to lessen the burden with a "no-board exam policy" for CBSE Class 10 were met with much cheer.

The single-entrance format for engineering, autonomy of IIMs and a common curriculum for Classes 11 and 12 were his efforts to streamline the processes. His pet project - Akash tablet - may have hit a roadblock, but he remains upbeat. The next version of the low-cost tablet would be available soon, officials said.

After he took over as the Communications and Information Technology Ministry in January 2011, he faced the tough task of defending the government in the 2G Spectrum case. His comment about the loss in the 2G spectrum scam being only notional not just gave the Opposition parties fodder, but also created public outcry. His defence of "zero loss" statement has failed to impress the Opposition, which can be expected to make the most of it in the Lok Sabha elections.

As the Telecom Minister, Sibal fast-tracked the National Telecom Policy, 2012, and provided an outline to regulate the sector in the country. Industry experts say the policy brought clarity to the sector that was not performing well. He also initiated India's maiden effort to start chip manufacturing for electronic items.

Holding additional charge of the Law and Justice Department after Ashwani Kumar's exit, he can be credited with the passage of the contentious Lokpal Bill. Sibal not just piloted it but also managed to get rival parties on board to ensure a smooth passage for Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi's 2014 poll plank.