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Modi is BJP’s biggest strength & weakness
Modi launches Chai pe Charcha campaign
SAD Dakha MLA eyes Ludhiana seat
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Punjab campaign to be high on pitch, low on content
STOCK-TAKING: Deepender Hooda ROHTAK
STOCK-TAKING: Satpal Maharaj Pauri Garhwal
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Modi is BJP’s biggest strength & weakness
New Delhi, February 12 Bereft of several allies, the saffron party registered a drastic dip in vote share, scoring 18.84% to fall beyond the 1991-level of 20.11%. In 2004, the party share increased to 22.16%.
The saffron party's best performance was in 1998 and 1999 when it bagged a vote share of 25.59% and 23.75%, respectively. As an incumbent government in 2004, its vote share slipped to 22.16%, but the worst came in 2009, the year the BJP was routed out of strongholds such as UP, Delhi and Rajasthan. As the BJP approaches the 2014 polls, it has a strong 10-year anti-incumbency factor of the Congress to cash in on. On the flip side, it faces a threat in the form of resurgence of regional parties, the possibility of a Third Front and the AAP factor. Had Arvind Kejriwal not been there, Modi's limited appeal among allies may have been compensated by tapping into UPA's miseries. Now, there are fears of AAP making a dent in states such as Delhi, Haryana and Maharashtra, where BJP was banking on anti-incumbency to post higher gains. "The atmosphere in the country is in the BJP's favour. If we choose the right candidate, nothing can stop us," says senior leader JP Nadda. The M-factor
Out of power for 10 years, 2014 is the BJP's make or break chance given the severe divisions in the party over projecting Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as the PM candidate. If the BJP fails to get between 200 and 220 seats, Modi will have to bear the brunt of it. In fact, Modi — the BJP's biggest strength — is also its biggest weakness. You can like him or you can hate him, but you cannot ignore him. His hardliner Hindutva image has stuck despite a fierce pro-development pitch and the court's clean chit. Rival parties continue to hound him with the riot slur. Pressure from ideological fountainhead RSS may have united factions to rally behind Modi, but there is no denying his lack of universal appeal. His appeal in youth and urban middle class is backed by strong support from business class. Financial groups have upgraded stock market targets on an assumption that the Modi-led NDA may come to power. The US ending Modi's nine-year boycott indicates positive tidings. As the BJP approaches the LS polls with fewer allies than 2004 and 2009, Modi is its only unifying factor. The strategy
The Gujarat strongman is trying to smoothen faultlines by offering an alternative for everyone from the upper caste voters to OBCs, Dalits and even Muslims in urban and rural areas. His limited ability to attract allies is being countered by the development pitch. For the caste-divided heartlands, his humble 'chai-wala' OBC background (he belongs to the Ghanchi community of oil-pressers (teli)) is the party's biggest trump card. A turn for the better
There is a feeling in the BJP that the "threat" of a Third Front option may actually work in its favour in urban areas, with voters opting for stability over the coming-together-of-non-Congress-non-BJP-secular forces rhetoric. Some assessments have upgraded BJP's prospects to 200-210 seats from 180-190 some weeks ago. Deciding states
Chances of a Modi-led NDA depend on the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar that account for 120 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats. The biggest threat to BJP in UP is from the possibility of a BSP-Congress tie-up while in Bihar the coming together of Lalu Prasad and the Congress may hurt its calculations. Going ahead on its own, the party is confident of around 40 seats in UP and 16-20 in Bihar. Other grazing pastures where it hopes to maximise gains are Maharashtra (48 seats) and Rajasthan (25). In Rajasthan it got just four seats in 2009 as against 21 in 2004. In Maharashtra, the BJP-Sena combine bagged 19 seats in 2009, but the party sees scope in at least 10 to 15 more constituencies. Keeping in mind the results of the recently-concluded Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the BJP is hoping to better its 2009 tally of 16 and four seats, respectively. It is hoping to continue holding 10 of the 11 Chhattisgarh seats and take its tally to 20 in Gujarat (26 seats). All eyes are on Western and Central India. Search for allies
The BJP's best bet in the South seems Karnataka. Return of Lingayat strongman BS Yeddyurappa to the BJP fold indicates the party's intention to retain the 19 seats it won in 2009. In Andhra Pradesh (42 seats), an alliance with the Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP seems to be on the cards. Among the five Northern states, the party's maximum hope is from Punjab (13 seats) where it has a tie-up with Akali Dal. The BJP's kitty includes three seats. For the 10 Haryana seats, it has an alliance with the Kuldeep Bishnoi-led Haryana Janhit Congress, but it is also keeping the Chautalas-led Indian National Lok Dal on the radar. There are five seats in Uttarakhand, four in Himachal Pradesh, six in Jammu and Kashmir and one in Chandigarh. In the North, the BJP currently holds three seats in Himachal and one each in Uttarakhand and Punjab. It is often said the NDA did not lose 2004 because of governance deficit, over-confidence or back-firing of the India Shining campaign, but because of the Congress' superior ability to stitch together a coalition. The Congress' 2009 win is also attributed to the NDA’s crumbling. As against over 20 allies with which the NDA went into the 1999 General Election, the NDA coalition now has only the Shiv Sena, the Akali Dal, Vaiko's Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, RPI and Haryana Janhit Congress. Modi's "personal friend" J Jayalalithaa's recent political moves have only thrown cold water on the party's southern plans. In Tamil Nadu, the BJP — which recently allied with MDMK — is waiting for a green signal from the PMK, led by S Ramadoss and the DMDK, led by actor-turned-politician Vijaykanth. With AIADMK out of the scene, the BJP is keeping the DMK option open. Its alliance with the DMK saw the NDA alliance winning 26 out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, its best performance ever. It is also eyeing Kerala, West Bengal, Odisha and the North-Eastern states where it has no presence. Back-up plan
If Modi's ambition of becoming PM has to play out, the BJP has to cross its personal best of 182 seats and touch the 200-mark. But if performance in the past two LS polls, plus factors such as lack of allies, increased prospects of multi-corner contests and AAP, make the magic number seem an uphill task. Of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies, around 200 are in states where the party has rarely won without a tie-up or alliance such as Assam, Haryana, West Bengal, Odisha and Tamil Nadu. If the tally dips below 170, the BJP may have to look for a more acceptable PM candidate. Sources say there is a Plan B backed by the RSS: to let an "acceptable leader" (read Rajnath Singh or LK Advani) "run the last mile". In that eventuality, estranged ally JD(U) may be persuaded to return home and the woo-list expanded to parties such as Trinamool, AGP, and BJD.
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Modi launches Chai pe Charcha campaign
Ahmedabad, February 12 "The whole country is worried about black money. It is an anti-national activity... For bringing back this black money, you require a political will. I give an assurance to my countrymen that when we will form a government in Delhi, we will create a task force and if necessary will amend the laws," the BJP's prime ministerial candidate said as he launched the party's much-hyped "chai pe charcha with NaMo" (a discussion over tea with Modi) campaign. "We will bring back each and every penny deposited abroad by Indian citizens. I am committed to this because this money belongs to the poor people of India and no one has the right to do this kind of anti-national activity," he said. Modi was interacting with people here as part of the "chai pe charcha with NaMo", where he answered questions from the public from across the country on the theme of good governance. The programme has been coined by the BJP using the "tea- seller" barb hurled at Modi by rivals to reach out to voters across the country and engage with him. The Gujarat Chief Minister launched the first such programme today where he interacted with public at tea stalls and answered queries on good governance. The programme was simultaneously held at 100 locations across 300 cities across the country. "It is the prime responsibility of the government to bring back black money. Only the next government will be able to do this and this is my personal commitment," he said. As an incentive, he said, whatever such money is brought in, 5 to 10 per cent of it will be given as "gift" to those salaried class who earned fixed income and honestly paid taxes," he said. "I will distribute this 5 to 10 per cent amount to all those who have fixed incomes and are regular tax payers," Modi said, in an apparent bid to woo the salaried class and employees ahead of the elections. He stressed on good governance saying the common man expects nothing from the government except good governance, which has become a casualty now, and said this trust needs to be re-established. Modi said bad governance was like diabetes that brought many other ailments with it. He said, "Even small nations have developed, but India has not made its mark like them in the world." Hoping to brew success with "chai pe charcha", Modi said politics had changed and was not the same as in the past. "Today, public demands accountability and every elected represented has to remain connected with the public," he said. — PTI I’m the real tea seller, says Lalu As Narendra Modi connected with people through a discussion over a cup of tea, RJD president Lalu Prasad Yadav expressed doubt over Modi being a tea-seller and stressed it was he who used to sell tea in his childhood in Patna. “I used to sell tea and biscuits with my elder brothers from a shop near the police quarters in Patna’s veterinary college area while studying in school,” Yadav said. — PTI
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SAD Dakha MLA eyes Ludhiana seat
Ludhiana, February 12 In the first week of January, Ayali organised a police-public initiative against drug menace at Mullanpur Dakha in Ludhiana where he also launched a helpline for the people to report drug activities in their area. Eager to project a clean image, Ayali said during the campaign that he had never patronised any person with a criminal background. Besides, he pledged to root out corruption from government offices and bring in transparency. Ayali, who remained Zila Parishad Chairman from 2008 to 2012, is known for his aggressive approach. He was at loggerheads with Jasbir (Jassi) Singh Khangura, the Congress candidate from Dakha during the Assembly elections. A Youth Akali Dal leader said with the political rift between senior Akali leader Hira Singh Gabria and the Bains brothers (Simarjit Singh Bains and Balwinder Singh Bains, both MLAs) only widening, Ayali is a safe choice for the Akali Dal. Ayali said as a sincere party worker he had never shirked any responsibility. "I will follow the directions of the party high command," he said.
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Punjab campaign to be high on pitch, low on content
Chandigarh, February 12 Usually, electoral debates in the state had been lacking substance, intellect and vision. And the situation will not be different in the ensuing 16th Lok Sabha elections. The emerging scenario indicates that the campaigning will be as combative and fierce as it used to be in the past. Main stake holders are busy in arming with the inflammatory material from the state's gory, tragic and unfortunate recent past. That material will obviously be used to stoke up emotions to grab votes. The politics of "tun-tun, main, main" has damaged the state to the extent that it is struggling for the past many years to check its downslide on economic front. It’s SAD-BJP vs Cong
What matters most in Punjab's political set up as of now are the ruling SAD-BJP alliance and the Congress. There are other political players such as Sanjha Morcha, a conglomerate of four political outfits- the People's Party of Punjab (PPP), the CPI, the CPM and the Shiromani Akali Dal (Longowal-Barnala). The BSP, which emerged as a force to reckon with in 1990s, has been reduced to a fringe player. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has given a new agenda to Indian politics, is also trying hard to gain some reckoning in the state's political arena. Given the current political situation, it appears that the main electoral battle will be between the SAD-BJP alliance and the Congress. Cong faces factionalism
Whereas the Congress is facing internal bickering and factionalism due to differences between Partap Singh Bajwa and Capt Amarinder Singh camps, the SAD has no such problem at least explicitly. In fact, the SAD is controlled by the father and son duo -- Parkash Singh Badal and Sukhbir Singh Badal. The duo has such a monopoly over the party that no one, except a few leaders, dares to speak against them. The BJP has problems within its ranks but because of its limited political stake in the state's politics, it has been pulling through its internal thorny state of affairs. The left parties, the CPI and the CPM, which had become significant political forces in 1970s, are struggling to keep their political existence in the state. Their erstwhile supporters have started turning towards the AAP. Earlier, there were reports that the Congress may tie-up with PPP of Manpreet Singh Badal and give it a seat. But because of opposition from senior leaders such as Capt Amarinder Singh, the Congress has dragged its feet in this regard. Also, talks of the PPP and the AAP coalition have also not materialised. Sensitive issues
Hot emotive issues, which have already moved the political centre-stage and will be apparently top on the agenda of politicians during the elections, are the Operation Bluestar, which saw exchange of aggressive statements between the SAD leadership and the Congress top brass in recent days. Equally, the issue of the Delhi riots is also back in the limelight with the SAD-BJP leaders going all out to put the Congress On the other hand, the Congress top brass is focusing on Parkash Singh Badal and have posed him tough questions regarding his whereabouts when Operation Bluestar was on. Besides it, other issues likely to dominate the election campaign include corruption, drugs, unemployment, sand and gravel prices, environment, falling income level of small and marginal farmers and above all of sluggish economy. A fight between 2 families
In the 2009 elections, the Congress had done well in Punjab. The last election was virtually reduced to a fight between two families -- Badals and Royals of Patiala led by Capt Amarinder Singh. By securing 45.23 per cent votes, the Congress had won eight seats and the SAD four and its ally, the BJP had won one. There was a definite pattern in victories in that election. The SAD won all three contiguous seats -- Bathinda, Faridkot and Ferozepur -- in Malwa region but lost all other seats in that region. It won Khadoor Sahib in Majha and the BJP won adjoining Amritsar seat in that area and lost all others. The SAD-BJP did not win any seat in Doaba region. In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress had fared badly. It had won only two seats whereas the SAD had won eight and the BJP three. All 4 women won in 2009
All four women, two —Harsimrat Kaur Badal and Paramjit Kaur Gulshan — put up by the SAD-BJP alliance and two — Perneet Kaur and Santosh Chaudhary — nominated by the Congress won the Lok Sabha elections last time. For the first time, Punjab sent four women to the Lok Sabha in 2009 whereas earlier, the maximum number was three in 1989. In 2009, the Congress had put up four young faces. Two of them -- Ravneet Singh Bittu and Vijay Inder Singla had won and the other two -- Sukhwinder Singh Danny and Raninder Singh -- lost the election. Traditional parties to dominate
Eminent economist and Director General of CRRID Dr Sucha Singh Gill said it appeared that the main fight would be between the SAD-BJP coalition and the Congress. He said he did not feel that this election would through up something extra ordinary. "The traditional parties will dominate the show," he said. Gill said because of lack of political activities among students in universities and colleges there was no emergence of fresh young leaders in the political arena.
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STOCK-TAKING: Deepender Hooda ROHTAK Even as residents rue lack of basic amenities, Hooda Jr harps on progress at the fag end of his second term as MP Sunit Dhawan Tribune News Service
Rohtak, February 12 Left cushy job in US
A BTech and MBA and educated abroad, Deepender was in a dilemma whether to continue his career in the corporate world and hang his boots as a CEO or tread the path adopted by his father and late grandfather. The decision was tough as he had to choose between a comfortable, luxurious life and accept the challenge of coming out of his comfort zone and being a public figure with a bagful of responsibilities and expectations. Ultimately, he decided to follow the footsteps of his elders. Riding high on the pro-Congress popularity wave which had swept Haryana and installed his father Bhupinder Singh Hooda as the Chief Minister, Deepender contested the election from the Rohtak Lok Sabha seat - vacated by his father - in 2005 and won hands down. The transition from business-class flights to dusty village roads was not easy for the genteel lad, but he managed to fit in the shoes of his ancestors and carry forward their political legacy. The next election - in 2009 - also proved a cakewalk for Hooda junior, who trampled his nearest rival - Nafe Singh Rathi of the INLD - by a huge margin of more than 4.45 lakh votes. However, the going seems to have got tough for the suave young two-time MP this time, Congress leaders' tall claims of projecting Rohtak as the "safest seat" for the ruling party notwithstanding. And, the reasons are not hard to comprehend. To begin with, Deepender as well as his image managers maintain that the Rohtak parliamentary constituency has witnessed outstanding development during his successive terms. Development projects
New rail link between Rewari and
Rohtak, setting up of AIIMS-II and National Cancer Institute in Jhajjar district, coming up of national and state-level educational institutes at
Rohtak, upgradation of railway and road infrastructure and extension of Metro network till Bahadurgarh are some of the major achievements for which Deepender and his men seek credit. Performance in Parliament
To give the MP his due, his more than 80 per cent attendance in Parliament and full utilisation of the funds meant for developmental works in his constituency also go to his credit. So much so that the Rohtak Lok Sabha constituency became the butt of envy amongst the other Congress MPs owing allegiance to other parts of the state. Failed as the CM's son
However, given the peculiar character of Haryana heartland, people had much higher expectations from Deepender - the CM's son that they had from Deepender - the MP. Political pundits point out that in Haryanavi political culture, the son of the Chief Minister is considered a formidable force to reckon with in the state government set-up, even if he is not an elected legislator. The clout enjoyed and exploited by INLD supremo Om Prakash Chautala during the tenure of late Devi
Lal, Ajay Singh and Abhey Singh during the tenure of Chautala, late Surender Singh during the term of late Bansi Lal and Chander Mohan and Kuldeep during the tenure of Bhajan Lal was too evident to be missed by anyone. Inadequate
infrastructure
Deepender may have had an outstanding performance as an MP, but the people, especially those belonging to his constituency, had exceedingly high expectations from him by virtue of his being the son of the CM. While the ruling party workers expected to have a substantial say in personal matters as well as those related to local governance and administration, the common residents are irked over the lack of basic amenities, acute traffic chaos, pitiable law and order situation and grossly inadequate infrastructure in terms of parking spaces, public utilities and internal roads. Then, allegations and instances of caste and regional considerations being accorded undue preference in selection for government jobs have triggered strong anti-incumbency undercurrents. Lack of job opportunities
People's hope of generation of a plenty of jobs with the coming up of big industrial units and educational institutes were also dashed, which again went against their elected representatives. More importantly, the state
"yuvraj" has also failed to make any noticeable difference in the agriculture sector, which is the mainstay of a majority of local
masses. Nafe Singh Rathi, who lost the last election to Deepender, said the people were fed up with the functioning of the present regime and would teach them a lesson in the coming elections.
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STOCK-TAKING: Satpal Maharaj Pauri Garhwal Got Rs 88 cr sanctioned for construction of Assembly House at Gairsain Jotirmay Thapliyal Tribune News Service
Dehradun, February 12 The constituency has a history of political rivalry between a former Army General from the BJP and a gusty Thakur of Garhwal, who represents the Congress. While Maj Gen BC Khanduri (retd) was the Union Minister for Roads and National Highways in the NDA Government, Satpal Maharaj was the Union Minister of State for Railways and also Finance Minister during the HD Dev Gowda Government at the Centre. Both of them locked in a direct contest five times. Khanduri has won four times (1991, 1998, 1999, 2004) while Maharaj won only once in 1996. Assembly segments
The constituency, which spreads over 14,552 sq kms, comprises 14 Assembly segments - Badrinath, Tharali (SC), Karanprayag, Kedarnath, Rudraprayag, Deoprayag, Narendranagar, Yamkeshwar, Pauri (SC), Srinagar, Chobattakhal, Lansdowne, Kotdwar and Ramnagar. It includes higher reaches of the state like Badrinath, Tharali and Rudraprayag and areas like Narendranagar and Deoprayag. The Ramnagar Assembly segment draws its strength from Kumaon division. It has nearly 11 lakh voters with ex-servicemen forming a substantial chunk of it. Winning margin
Satpal Maharaj defeated Lt Gen TPS Rawat (retd) by a margin of 17,397 votes in the 2009 LS elections. Maharaj had polled 23,6949 votes while Lt Gen Rawat secured 21,9552 votes. Lt Gen Rawat had contested the election on the BJP ticket under leadership of Chief Minister Khanduri. Rawat left the party to form Uttarakhand Raksha Morcha. The BJP this time is all set to give ticket to Khanduri. Performance in Parliament
Maharaj was quite vocal in raising issues in the Lok Sabha. After becoming MP, Maharaj sought details of the progress of the Delhi-Dehradun highway. He subsequently raised the issue of mode and payment under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. He raised issues of financial package to the state, allocation of foodgrains under the Public Distribution System, construction of airports and harassment of Gujjars in the Rajaji National Park. Recruitment drives
As chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence, Maharaj had been successful in carrying out recruitment drives in the region. Further, in response to Maharaj's statement in the Lok Sabha, the 13th Finance Commission had sanctioned Rs 88 crore for the construction of the Assembly House at Gairsain. Railway line
Maharaj said his biggest achievement was the Rishikesh-Karanprayag railway line. "Bringing railways to the Garhwal hills has been my dream project and the survey work of the project has already been completed," he said. Maharaj said his two sons — Shradhey and Suyesh-- were camping in Chamoli to oversee distribution of relief material to the affected people. MPLADS funds
On utilisation of the Member of Parliament Local Area Development Scheme (MPLADS), Maharaj said he had spent almost the entire fund earmarked for his constituency. "I have spent a total of Rs 7.47 crore in my constituency. This includes money spent on providing two computers each in 1,500 schools and also providing a toilet each in the schools meant exclusively for girls," Maharaj said. "Lack of job opportunities in the Garhwal hills is leading to continuous migration," said Khanduri. He said as the Chief Minister in 2008, he had come up with a separate industrial policy, which was never pursued by the subsequent Congress governments. He said the policy was meant to address the problem of migration. He said there was a large scarcity of teachers and doctors in the constituency and no sincere efforts had been made to address these issues in the past five years.
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