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Hate in Harlem
One India |
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Indoctrinated people
Winning the trust of Muslims
From reel role models to real ones
Wading in deep waters, still
Emerging economies may fall like a Bric
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Hate in Harlem
A
turban-wearing person with a long beard was beaten up in New York on Monday. The hate mob that battered Prabhjot Singh did not know that he was working to improve the health of local communities, including Harlem, where he was attacked. They would not have been aware of his considerable accomplishments, both academic and otherwise. From the expletives that they threw at their victim, it is obvious that they thought he was a terrorist, an ‘Osama’, as they called him, and thus worthy of hate. Unfortunately, hate crimes are not new to the US, as visible minorities have found out from time to time. Since 9/11, many Americans have the turban-wearing Osama bin Laden as a hate image in their minds, not without good reason. Sikhs, apparently because of their appearance, have since been victims of hate crimes — be it individual incidents (a Sikh man shot while driving near Orlando, Florida; an elderly Sikh beaten in Fresno, California, in May) or ones involving multiple causalities like the 2012 massacre in the gurdwara at Oak Creek, Wisconsin. It was only in June that the US Federal Bureau of Investigation announced that it would track hate crimes against Sikhs, something that Prabhjot Singh, who is assistant professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, New York, had long campaigned for and written about in the American media. Hate crimes are similar to acts of terrorism insofar as they are often random acts that target innocent individuals who happen to be at the wrong place at the wrong time. New York police now needs to identify and apprehend the perpetrators of this hate crime. However, besides policing, there is the need to make a major effort to educate the American public about the minorities that now call the United States of America their home. Indeed, the Sikh community needs to engage with the American public at large, even as the American society needs to recognise that it is now multicultural. It must celebrate its diversity, ethnic and otherwise, and thus be more inclusive.
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One India
The
National Integration Council meeting in New Delhi on Monday was an opportunity for various political parties to find ways and commit themselves to repairing communal fissures in society. Instead, they chose to assail each other from the same standpoints as have contributed to social tensions earlier, especially the kind that come up close to elections. Most Chief Ministers of Opposition parties did not show up, including Narendra Modi, when they could have presented their side of the story, which they repeatedly claim is a more genuine kind of secularism. It would have been good to hear the BJP’s definition of nationalism. Modi and Akhilesh Yadav proved convenient punching bags for various parties. The Prime Minister spoke of the need to come down hard on those fanning communal flames. While tensions often exist in societies, these are turned into fuel for flare-ups by mischievous elements. Prompt and tough administrative action can often prevent a localised clash from turning into a widespread riot. Officials, however, are headed by a political executive, which often proves the weakest link — if not the very saboteur — in keeping peace, as it calculates the effect of each action on votes. The role of non-political community leaders, therefore, becomes very important, as they have the interest of their people in mind the most; no one, after all, is served by violence. A fire usually ends up searing both sides. National integration and national security are closely related. One determines the other, and the Home Ministry has a major role to play in both. Police strength, a point raised by the Haryana Chief Minister, is critical to keeping peace, not only between different religious communities but also across other lines of divide, whether caste or gender. Social media was widely assailed for its potential to spark instant violence. This is yet an emerging field, and needs deeper study to find ways to curb its wayward ways without banning the medium, as sought in certain quarters. All said, it is minorities that are used by their aggressors as well as protectors to further their own interest. This has to stop if the country wants to call itself more evolved than at the time of Partition.
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Indoctrinated people
The
demand for regressive amendments in the Hindu Marriage Act, 1955, in the wake of gruesome killing of Nidhi and Dharmender of Garnawathi village, by representatives of various khap panchayats is not only presumptuous but also based on misinformation. To declare that such amendments have been carried out in the Act by the state governments of Karnataka, Pondicherry, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab is factually wrong. The last time the khaps had demanded lowering of the age of marriage in the Act, from 18 to 15, to protect its girls from falling in love, the Supreme court had turned down their appeal. Fortunately, so far the only amendments carried out in the Act have been progressive, keeping in mind the changing cultural milieu of a large pluralistic society. Unfortunately, as urbanisation and opportunities for women’s education increase, patriarchy reasserts control over the sexual choices of young, educated and in their opinion, defiant women. Making choices is the natural progression of being educated. Hence, patriarchal traditions would like the entire discourse of morality to be limited by the sexual choices of its women. By controlling these choices, they in turn control progeny and property rights of the community. In such a closed-minded indoctrination of patriarchal values, even cold-blooded murder gets moral sanction, as opposed to the sexual choices made by its women. Which, in this case, had legal sanction. No wonder, the khaps want this legal sanction to be removed so as to be able to exercise complete control over their regressive fiefdoms. Their indoctrination of patriarchy is as fatal as the indoctrination of a religious fanatic in a secular society. For, a rightly professed wrong becomes more potent in the absence of a civilised discourse. No wonder, inadvertently even women become carriers of rigid patriarchal values. This, perhaps, explains the silence of the entire village folk and the lead taken by Nidhi’s mother in her elimination. In the absence of a reformative social movement, it is for the political class to take a lead in crushing these fiefdoms. That will help to release the youth of Haryana from their retrogressive clutches.
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Happiness is when what you think, what you say, and what you do are in harmony. —Mahatma Gandhi
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Winning the trust of Muslims Gujarat
Chief Minister Narendra Modi, the prime-ministerial candidate of the BJP, has asked the Jamaat-Ulma Hind, representing the Muslims, to list four or five steps he should announce to win their confidence. The Jamaat has rightly pointed out that it was for Modi to think how to win the trust of the Muslims. One thing Modi could do straightaway is to apologise for the 2002 riots in the state, reportedly blessed by him after the burning of some Hindu pilgrims in a train compartment at Godhara, not far from Ahmedabad. There is enough evidence to confirm that he convened a meeting of top officials to plan and execute an exercise to kill the Muslims. Hiren Pandey, a minister in Modi’s cabinet, had admitted after having participated in the riots that they were pre-planned and that the police was asked not to interfere. He was murdered and till today the murderer has not been brought to book. And only recently has a top police officer confessed in a letter to the CBI that Modi used him to stage the false encounter. In his first speech after the nomination, Modi talked about a range of issues—ties with neighbouring countries, terrorism and defence. But he did not utter a word about Muzaffarnagar’s communal riots. The city, only two hours’ drive from Delhi, witnessed the killing of 50 persons and the exodus of nearly 40,000 people—Hindus and Muslims, who have lived together for centuries. Indeed, this is the result of Modi-type of politics of polarisation which has challenged India’s credentials of secularism. Modi is a poster-boy of Hindutva, as the media describes him. After 66 years of Independence, the two communities tend to jump at each other’s throats on the call of religious leaders or politicians in that garb. The nation has to introspect why the people play into their hands and why it has failed to establish a secular polity. Modi does not care about India’s ethos of pluralism. He has played the Hindu card because he believes that secularism does not sit well in a Hindu-majority country. If he has learned the lesson after the Gujarat riots, as he claims, there is no indication of that. He compared the other day the victims in the Gujarat riots as puppies who got crushed under a speeding car. The RSS, which has nurtured Modi, believes that it wants the next election to be fought on the plank of “minority aggressiveness.” It is misinterpreting the minorities’ articulation for their identity. Even if there is aggressiveness, it can be tackled. But the majority’s aggressiveness can turn into fascism. This is what happened in Germany where the Nazis took over and Hitler emerged on the scene. It is unfortunate that the BJP has selected Modi, knowing too well that the party was defeated in 2004 and 2009 elections because of its communal agenda. Even Atal Behari Vajpayee’s liberal image could not wear off the stigma of parochialism the party has. By and large, India is a tolerant society. People do not mix religion with politics. The BJP has neither understood them, nor their aspirations. The idea of India is based on the country’s diversity. What has happened at Muzaffarnagar is a challenge to the very idea. Once again the BJP has poured oil on the fuel through a fake video. Refugees from the villages of Muzaffarnagar riots between the Hindu Jats and Muslims say that they were attacked by outsiders. I am reminded that after the Partition we too were forced to quit our homes by outsiders. Our Muslim friends gave us shelter and provided us with rations for a month before we left Sialkot. The victims of Muzaffarnagar complain bitterly that neighbours watched the mayhem but did not come to their rescue to stop the killing and destruction. The kinship dries up when rioting takes place. The Muzaffarnagar happenings are disconcerting because the communal virus has spread to the rural areas. The administration always fails because it has got politicised and awaits word from the ruling party. Officials did not take action fearing repercussions. The police is contaminated and tilts towards the Hindus. What happened in Muzaffarnagar, according to the reports in the media, was an instigated riot, suggesting a conspiracy on the part of the BJP. A Muslim youth was killed for eve-teasing. In retaliation, two Hindu Jat boys were lynched. And then all hell broke. Leaders, both from the Hindu and Muslim communities, delivered inflammatory speeches. The BJP further fanned the fire by releasing a fake video, showing the use of violence somewhere else to ‘prove’ the atrocities against the Hindus. A Muslim cleric led a mob after the prayers on Friday. And, as the state Governor has said in a report to the Centre, the administration has become more effete than the ruling Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, which wanted to exploit the situation. But it was confused. The BJP played a major role in polluting the atmosphere through yatras for building a Ram temple at the site where the Babri Masjid stood before its destruction. The RSS sees its chance in the next elections. It is doing everything possible to destroy the ethos of national struggle to establish a democratic, secular state. Modi’s projection, once the RSS ‘pracharak’ and an authoritarian by nature, fits into the agenda for a Hindu ‘rashtra’. I sympathise with LK Advani. I have seen how defeated he was towards the end of 1979 when the Janata Party ousted him for refusing to sever links with the RSS. Instead, he founded in 1980 the BJP and made Atal Behari Vajpayee, who too had been thrown out, its president. Today once again, Advani is forlorn and lonely. Again, the RSS is responsible for his isolation. It has fielded Modi for the Prime Minister’s office. Advani has not liked the manner in which the RSS has imposed Modi on the BJP. Apparently, the RSS feels that if somebody who meets the ideological stance of Hindu ‘rashtra’, it will be Modi, not Advani who over the years has shed bigotry and regards Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah, founder of Pakistan, as
secular.
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From reel role models to real ones Our
family boarded an aircraft from Delhi to attend the marriage of my niece. My daughter Ria was excited when she saw her favourite film star inside the aircraft. Since the aircraft was small, nearly all the passengers were visible clearly and except a few all the others belonged to the film industry. As all the seats were occupied, she could not interact with the lady as the aisle seat was occupied by a crew member. The crew was going for a shoot in a jungle for a forthcoming movie. My daughter strolled past her many times to catch a glimpse of the ‘star’ but could not make eye contact with her. I told her not to get excited and there was no need to stroll time and again near the lady as the latter might get annoyed. “We will try to meet her at the airport once we land,” I suggested. Ria was ready with her autograph book and kept on telling me what she felt about her favourite star. I told Ria that it was quite possible that may not get a chance to see her and told her the story of the old movie where Jayaji was fond of a star and later on realised that real life is different from reel life. Ria did not agree and said this happens only in movies. Her star was different, always smiling, helping the needy, accomodating and mixing up with people easily. As soon as the plane landed, Ria rushed towards the door and managed to catch her star at the luggage belt. When she asked her idol for an autograph, she got the reply, “Right now it is not possible to give an autograph. In case, I give it to you, other people will gather around for the same.” Ria told her, “Madam, there are only few passengers and out of them, at present only my family is near the luggage belt. I am very fond of you and my room is filled with your posters and CDs of your movies. Even I have seen all of your movies.” Her favourite star simply did not pay any heed and started moving towards the exit. Even on my request that the the little girl will be heart broken, she said that she was very busy. I could see tears rolling down Ria’s eyes and she said, “Dad, probably what you were saying is correct.” “Did you have a similar experience before?” asked Ria. I calmed her down by saying that perhaps the star was disturbed and some thing might have been bothering her. “We will try again another time,” I reassured her. This incident kept on playing on her mind till we returned home. The next evening when I came back from office, I found her to be as cheerful as usual. She took me to her room and I was astonished to find out that the wall posters had been replaced by paintings she had made along with her mother a few years back. On the wall, just above her study table, she had pasted a photo of her mother and me. On being asked why she had done this, pat came the reply, “It is better to make my parents a real model. They are always smiling, accommodating and trying to help me in all difficult situations rather than those who only do it on reel.” Now Ria is focused on becoming a doctor so that she can really help people smile and become their ‘real’
model.
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Wading in deep waters, still Economic
conditions in India continue to pose concerns to both policymakers and consumers, with a deceleration in growth, high consumer inflation and substantial volatility in the exchange rate of the rupee as compared to the US dollar. Indian economic growth has decelerated sharply since 2011-12 and remained below 5 per cent since Q3FY13. The outlook for the rest of this fiscal year remains mixed. An uptick in consumption demand and exports are likely to support growth in the coming quarters. Favourable monsoon rainfall and sowing trends have reinforced expectations of a robust kharif harvest in 2013. Moreover, the recharge of groundwater levels would benefit the rabi crop. The anticipated healthy growth of rural incomes is likely to boost consumption demand in the remainder of this fiscal, partly offsetting the impact of higher interest rates. In addition, healthy reservoir levels suggest an improvement in hydroelectricity generation in the coming months. Growth projection The depreciation of the rupee combined with a somewhat stronger growth outlook for the US, Europe and Japan is likely to boost merchandise and services exports going forward, particularly for sectors such as textiles, apparels, pharmaceuticals and software, which have a low import content. While recent measures such as FDI reforms and clearances accorded by the Government of India (GoI) for various projects are encouraging, these are likely to boost growth and create jobs with a lag. Moreover, the private sector is expected to display caution in announcing new projects prior to parliamentary elections, which would result in muted investment activity. Notwithstanding the recent pullback, the exchange rate of the Indian rupee to the dollar remains substantially weaker than the level at the beginning of the year. This is a source of concern, as it is expected to boost inflation related to imported food and non-food products as well as those items with substantial import content. Moreover, under-recoveries on the retail sale of various fuels have widened sharply, increasing the suppressed component of inflation. Additionally, a spike in vegetable prices following supply disruptions related to bouts of heavy rainfall has heightened food inflation in recent months. However, the anticipated cooling-off of vegetable prices following the arrival of fresh crops and a healthy kharif harvest are expected to dampen food inflation to an extent in the coming months. Boosting inflows Based on the import constraining measures announced so far, ICRA expects the current account deficit to ease to USD 75 billion in 2013-14 from USD 88 billion recorded in 2012-13. Nevertheless, the funding of the current account deficit continues to pose a challenge. While the US Federal Reserve has delayed the announcement of a reduction in its bond purchasing programme from USD 85 billion per month, the winding down of this programme is inevitable, which could constrain the magnitude of FII flows into emerging market economies like India. Additionally, FDI inflows are unlikely to record a broad-based pickup until after the parliamentary elections. Despite the recent hardening of domestic interest rates, a sharp increase in the cost of hedging may reduce the attractiveness of ECBs to corporates that do not have a natural hedge. However, quasi sovereign bonds issued by public sector financial institutions would help to finance the current account deficit. Moreover, the deregulation of interest rates on NRI deposits combined with the substantial deprecation of the rupee is expected to boost inflows. The key risks to achieving the fiscal deficit target for FY14 arise from a weaker-than-expected economic recovery with attendant concerns regarding achieving the budgeted tax growth; possibility that market conditions may prevent realisation of the budgeted targets for revenues from telecom and disinvestment; and containing the subsidy bill at Rs 2.3 trillion. Cuts to plan expenditure should be undertaken with caution, as these would further dampen the growth momentum. In its mid-quarter policy review on September 20, 2013, the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly increased the Repo rate by 25 bps to 7.5 per cent, while partially reversing some of the exceptional liquidity measures that it had introduced since July 2013. With growth momentum expected to modestly revive led by agriculture and exports, the timing of Repo cuts would be dependent on the trajectory of inflation, which would be influenced both by food items and exchange rate movements. As a result, long term interest rates are likely to remain firm in the near term, which would impact both consumption and investment decisions. The writer is senior economist at Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Ltd.
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Emerging economies may fall like a Bric Multiple Latin debt crises and the Asian emerging markets crisis of 1997-98 have been forgotten. To paraphrase Robert Louis Stevenson, financial markets have "a grand memory for forgetting".
Now, the risk of an emerging markets crisis is very real. Investors have been romancing emerging markets, exemplified by the dalliance with the Bric economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China), a term coined by Goldman Sachs' Jim O'Neill in 2001. Slowing growth in developed economies following the 2007-08 global financial crisis resulted in a sharp slowdown in emerging economies. To restore growth, emerging markets switched to development models more reliant on credit. Double-digit annual credit growth drove economic activity in China, Brazil, India, Turkey and many economies in Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. Loose monetary policies in developing countries - low or zero interest rates, quantitative easing and currency devaluation - encouraged capital inflows into emerging markets in search of higher returns and currency appreciation. Banks, awash with liquidity, sought lending opportunities in emerging markets. International investors such as pension funds, investment managers, central banks and sovereign wealth funds increased allocations to emerging markets. Foreign ownership of emerging market debt increased sharply. In Asia, up to 50 per cent of Indonesian rupiah government bonds are held by foreigners, up from less than 20 per cent at the end of 2008. About 40 per cent of government debt in Malaysia and the Philippines is held by foreigners. Going down Capital inflows drove sharp falls in emerging market borrowing costs. Brazil's dollar-denominated bond yields fell from above 25 per cent in 2002 to a record low 2.5 per cent in 2012. After averaging about 7 per cent for the period 2003-2011, Turkish dollar-denominated bond yields sank to a record low 3.17 per cent in November 2012. Indonesian dollar bond yields fell to a record low 2.84 per cent. Local currency interest rates also fell. The increased availability of funds and low rates encouraged rapid increases in borrowing and speculative investment. Asset prices, particularly real estate, increased sharply. The effect of capital inflows was exacerbated by the relative size of the investment and local financial markets. A 1 per cent increase in portfolio allocations by US pension funds and insurers equates to about $500bn (Ł312bn), much larger than the capacity of emerging markets to absorb easily. In the past 12 months, investor concern about developments in emerging markets has increased, reflecting slowing growth and a potential reversal of capital inflows. Policy dynamics China's growth has fallen below 7 per cent. India's growth is below 5 per cent. Brazil has slowed to near zero. Russian forecasts have been downgraded repeatedly to below 2 per cent. The slowdown reflects economic stagnation in the US, Europe and Japan. In addition, slowing Chinese growth has affected commodity demand and prices, with a knock-on effect on producers such as Brazil. The slowdown has flowed through the supply chain, affecting suppliers to Chinese manufacturers. The growth slowdown is now attenuated by capital outflows, driven by fundamental concerns about emerging market economies but also changing US policy dynamics. Improvements in American economic conditions have encouraged discussion about "tapering" the US Federal Reserve's liquidity support, currently $85bn a month. US Treasury bond interest rates have risen in anticipation of stronger growth, inflation and higher official rates. Rates in other developed countries such as Germany have also increased sharply. As investors shift their asset allocations back in favour of developed economies, especially the US, there have been significant capital outflows from emerging markets, resulting in sharp falls in currency values and rises in borrowing rates. Brazilian dollar-denominated bond yields have risen to about 5 per cent, well above the lows of 2.5 per cent last year. Turkish dollar-denominated bonds have risen to nearly 6 per cent from a low of 3.17 per cent. Like an outgoing tide that reveals the treacherous rocks hidden by high water, slowing growth and the withdrawal of overseas capital is now exposing deep-seated problems, especially high debt levels, financial system problems, current and trade account deficits, and structural deficiencies. The writer is an author and former banker. (The Independent)
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