There was goodwill all around at home and abroad. The media that largely remained hostile to the previous PPP government looked friendly and ready to allow him a secure sailing through the traditional 100-day honeymoon. During election campaign he had raised expectations to bring hope to a fractured land. The voters were surrounded by uncertainty, terrorism, economic collapse, rampant, corruption, inflation, crippling power outages and poor governance, and they heard the slogans of change.
Fair play
Sharif started off well to convince the world that years of life in exile have made him a more mature, balanced and pragmatist leader. In parliament, he was given support by almost all political parties. He chose a cabinet of motivated and competent people and named an Urdu-speaking party loyalist from Karachi as president. His most gracious and widely acclaimed move was to prefer a nationalist Baloch leader to form the government in Balochistan over his own party leader, even though the PML-N had emerged as the single largest party. Dr Malik is also the first commoner chief minister of the province that had hitherto been ruled by Sardars or tribal chieftains. Baloch is likely to act as a bridge with separatist nationalists who are engaged in a low-key insurgency.
What he promised, and did
 Talks with Taliban, but it was easier said than done
Tackling load-shedding within months; the target has now moved
to 2018
Better ties with India; relations have only worsened
Appointment of the next seniormost general as army chief; but now talks of picking a junior general,
forgetting the Musharraf lesson |
In Khyber Pakhtunkhawa (KPK), Sharif ignored JUI chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman's pleas to let him knit together an odd coalition comprising the PML-N, PPP, ANP and Independents. Instead, he honored the mandate of the PTI of his main political rival, Imran Khan, and let it attempt to form the government. Khan had posed Sharif a formidable challenge in the elections and his PTI secured 8 million votes to become the second largest party, relegating the PPP to a third position, restricted to only the Sindh province as a regional rather than national party. It disrupted decades of the two-party system in the country dominated by the PPP and PML-N.
Against this backdrop of a favourable political atmosphere, Sharif could have hoped for a breathing space to concentrate on tackling the country's daunting problems, on top being economic recovery. But he was soon to realise that terrorism has to be given primacy over others.
Next was load-shedding in the wake of the widening gap in power supply and demand which remained his main plank during the campaign and had won him huge majority.
Reality bites
A little over a week after he took office, sectarian murderers and separatist rebels in Balochistan mounted horrifying attacks in which 26 persons died. Three days later, a bombing at a funeral in Sher Garh in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province killed 28 persons. More bloody incidents intermittently followed in the two provinces that killed dozens, including security and police personnel. Target killing in Karachi, the economic hub of the country, increased. During the past two months, since Sharif took office, there has been unusual surge in terrorism, with 60 deadly blasts in as many days. This is despite the fact that all major winners in the election, including Sharif, favoured a dialogue with the Taliban. He omitted any reference to terrorism in his maiden speech in the National Assembly after being voted as the Premier. Some observers believe that he is the victim of a conspiracy to bring him under pressure and change his stances on various issues.
Sharif was soon to recognise the grim reality that terrorism is a nationwide scourge. He has since held several sessions with the army chief and senior officials of intelligence agencies. He decided to convene an all-party conference to evolve a national security policy and strategy to tackle extremism and terrorism, but had to postpone it twice. Imran Khan has refused to attend the conference until he gets genuine briefing in a meeting with Sharif, the army chief and heads of intelligence agencies.
In his address on the Independence Day on August 14, Sharif labelled terrorism as the foremost issue facing the country and vowed to fight it. On the dialogue issue, the Taliban have been elusive and spelled some impossible conditions. The problem is that they have split in nearly 16 groups and it is not clear with whom to talk. They withdrew the offer of talks when a US drone killed a key pro-dialogue Taliban leader, Waliur Rehman, ostensibly to subvert any move for talks. The most ferocious extremist sectarian group, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, has masterminded attacks on Shias across Pakistan with avowed determination to purge Pakistan of Shias.
The dialogue commitment appeared to be a major hurdle in restoring relations with the US. The army is also skeptical about it. Sharif is thus steadily positioning himself to satisfy both. After twice postponing his visit, US Secretary of State John Kerry finally arrived on August 1 on the first such visit in two years since Hillary Clinton came in the wake of the US attack on Abbotabad that killed Osama bin Laden. It was an embarrassing development for the army which came under fierce criticism, including scathing censure, by a commission set up under orders by the Supreme Court. The Sharif government has not made the commission's report public, apparently under army pressure.
Kerry made all the right noises to establish long-standing comprehensive relations with Pakistan, beyond narrow bounds of cooperation on war on terror. In the power sector, load-shedding continued to rise, frustrating his voters in Punjab who have been taking to streets in protest regularly. Power shortage forced hundreds of industrial units to shut down, resulting in unemployment. In the run-up to the election, Sharif had promised to overcome the crisis within months. Now, he is talking about ending load-shedding by 2018, or the end of his tenure.
Sporadic acts of terrorism, continuing load-shedding and rising prices have shown Sharif is clueless on how to tackle these challenges. The friendly media has also begun its criticism of the government, meaning Sharif can no longer expect the 100-day honeymoon.
Army factor
Another nagging challenge before him is how he walks the military tightrope. His bitter experience in his earlier stints in 1990s and unabated mutual mistrust continue to define the relations. Luckily, the army's hands are full in tackling civil strife in tribal areas and Balochistan, while domestic and international atmosphere deter any adventurism. But the army has retained hold on geostrategic policies that include relations with India, Afghanistan and the US.
It reacted firmly to Sharif's initial exuberance on holding dialogue with the Taliban and improving ties with India notwithstanding declarations by army chief General Kayani that terrorists rather than India are the country's number one enemies. Shortly after the election, he called on Sharif in Lahore and cautioned him against going too fast in policies towards India and Afghanistan. His aides now say that there could be no initiative with regard to India till after its elections next year. Even the previous government's agreement on granting the MFN status to India has been kept on hold according to finance minister Ishaq Dar. He also retracted on the promise to hold an inquiry into the Kargil debacle and the treason trial of Gen Pervez Musharraf.
Sharf, however, has expressed concern over the latest slide in the India-Pakistan relations in the wake of the exchange of fire on the LoC and the killing of five Indian soldiers, for which the Pakistan army is being held directly or indirectly responsible. He has directed effective steps to defuse the tensions, which his aides believe are deliberately being aggravated to sabotage the upcoming meeting with his Indian counterpart in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session.
General Kayani has behaved correctly ever since Sharif's assumption of office. Punjab chief minister Shahbaz Sharif has been instrumental in building bridges with the army. He has attended all of Sharif's meetings with the army and intelligence chiefs to the exclusion of chief ministers of the other three provinces. His ambitious younger brother is regarded by the political circles in the capital as the de facto Prime Minister. He has been grooming his elder son Hmaza Shahbaz to take up the mantle in Punjab. Sharif's both sons live out of the country and are doing roaring business activities in Saudi Arabia and the UK. To fill the gap, Sharif has begun promoting his daughter Maryam Nawaz.
General Kayani retires on November 28. Before his election, Sharif had promised to appoint the next seniormost general as his successor. He appears to have other ideas now and his top aides are talking about picking even a junior general, forgetting the lesson of naming a Musharraf for the key slot. If the principle of seniority is adhered to, then Lt-Gen Haroon Aslam (chief of logistic staff) would be the next choice. But there are reports he may be moved up to the toothless office of the chairman, joint chiefs of staff. The next in line are Lt-Gen Rashid Mamhood and Lt-Gen Raheel Sharif (not related to Nawaz).
Another major development would be the retirement in December of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, an emblem of judicial activism to the distaste of politicians, including Sharif, notwithstanding Sharif's role in his reinstatement. Because of the strict enforcement of the principle of seniority, Chaudhry will be succeeded by the suave Justice Tassaddaq Jilani, to Sharif's great relief.
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It has been using border action teams (amalgam of soldiers from Special Services Group and Lashkar terrorists, suicide bombers and terrorists) to plant mines inside the Indian territory. "We are respecting the ceasefire agreement in letter and spirit, but it makes no sense to remain quiet when they open heavy caliber fire," says a top Army source.