The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Musharraf’s gambit
Implications of his legal battle

The Pakistan Supreme Court refusing to allow former military dictator Gen Pervez Musharraf’s arrest in the “treason” case against him can be interpreted as indicative of what may ultimately come about as a result of his bid to re-enter the power structure he once controlled. The case relates to Musharraf’s declaration of an emergency in 2007 by subverting the constitution of Pakistan, as has been alleged by petitioners. Interestingly, the Chief Justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, recused himself from the Bench hearing the case. The Bench now consists of only two judges. It seems the judges are not in haste to put the retired army chief behind bars, though he had humiliated the Chief Justice on different pretexts when he ruled Pakistan. This shows that the judges want to ensure that no questions are raised about the fairness of the trial of Musharraf.

Besides imposing the emergency, the other cases against him include directing or abetting assassinations of Baloch leader Akbar Bugti and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and ordering the controversial army operation at Lal Masjid and a religious seminary in Islamabad. Surprisingly, the petitions against Musharraf do not mention his first crime which he committed in 1999 when he captured power through an army coup. What immediately followed the 1999 development actually goes in favour of Musharraf. The former General came out with what was called the Legal Framework Order (LFO) which was endorsed by the Pakistan National Assembly in the form of the 17th Constitution Amendment. Then came some petitions against his rule, but these were dismissed by a Supreme Court Bench which had the present Chief Justice as one of the three judges.

The team of legal luminaries defending the former dictator has warmed that the case against Musharraf may lead to the opening of Pandora’s box which may create difficulties for many top people in Pakistan. The LFO issued by Musharraf had been approved by the then Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a coalition of important religious parties. They may also have much explaining to do. Former cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan was among those who sided with him in the initial days of Musharraf’s rule. Thus, his legal fight will be more interesting to watch than his political battle for entering Pakistan’s parliament.

Gas in the pipeline
Economic initiatives crucial to J&K

The J&K Government is moving to overcome a minor legal glitch in the execution of the Bathinda-Srinagar gas pipeline. It is bringing in an ordinance to allow acquisition or leasehold rights of land for the agencies involved in the execution of the project, otherwise not granted to any non-state subject. The gains from the project, however, would be immense and not measurable in the immediate context. Legal issues apart, there are bound to be many more hurdles in laying the pipeline — security, engineering in the mountainous region, skill availability, etc. Much help from the state as well as the Central government would thus be required.

Though not in scale, the project may well be compared to the mission of taking the rail line to Kashmir. Just as efficient transport, energy is crucial to the development of any economy or society. J&K being located at one extreme of the country — and Kashmir especially impeded by at least one major mountain range to cross — has been at a disadvantage in both connectivity and fuel supply. The foremost use of the gas would be, of course, domestic, but in time it could fire thermal plants too. Despite the hydroelectric potential, the state has all along been power deficient. Provide energy and transport, and you have immediately given the state a prime spot in the national economy.

In the Pakistan-vs-India debate that goes on forever in Kashmir, one distinct advantage — apart from democracy — that India has is economy. People want peace and an opportunity to help themselves, more than any special treatment. Give them the tools to build their lives, and the rest will follow. If only the government and legislators were more focused on these brick-and-mortar issues — and did not hold up the Bill required for the pipeline, as it happened in the last Assembly session — the dividends of a functional democracy would be more visible to the masses. The state has seen more emotion than is good for any community’s well-being. Getting down to the business of work would do no harm.

Thought for the Day

If you have one true friend you have more than your share. — Thomas Fuller

ARTICLE

Plummeting influence of India
Effect of economy heading for a tailspin
by G. Parthasarathy

Nations inevitably lose international influence and power when they are either militarily unprepared or floundering economically. We are still to recover psychologically from the humiliating military defeat inflicted on our underprepared armed forces by China in 1962. The 1962 conflict led an adventurist Field Marshal Ayub Khan seeking to seize Kashmir and failing to do so, in a largely inconclusive conflict in 1965. This conflict had disastrous diplomatic consequences, with the once friendly Soviet Union seeking the role of a mediator, ready to supply weapons to Pakistan. India became a classical basket case dependent on the Soviet Union for arms and on the US for IMF assistance, to deal with a balance of payments crisis. With a begging bowl in hand, India sought American food aid as chronic food shortages led people to the verge of starvation.

Things turned for the better when Indian agriculture revived, in the wake of the Green Revolution spearheaded by then Agriculture Minister C Subramaniam. The Soviet Union came out in support of an economically self-reliant, rhetorically left-leaning Indian government. The dark shadows of 1962 receded when, backed by the Soviet Union, India emerged victorious while pitted against a Nixon-Mao-Yahya axis in the 1971 Bangladesh conflict. By the early 1990s, however, we were hit by a “double whammy” when the Soviet Union collapsed and we had to mortgage our gold reserves to stay afloat. Worse still, a malevolent Clinton Administration was prepared to go to any length, including putting pressure on the Russian Federation to end cooperation even in space with India, in a relentless effort to “cap, roll back and eliminate” India’s nuclear weapons programme. Our prestige sank so low that we were trounced and humiliated in an ill-advised contest against Japan for a seat in the UN Security Council in 1997.

It was only when the revolutionary economic reforms and liberalisation initiated by Prime Minister Narasimha Rao took effect that India’s economy recovered enough for the country to withstand global economic sanctions, which it faced after the nuclear tests of 1998. A chastened Bill Clinton visited India once he realised that it was pointless to impose sanctions on an economically vibrant India. The NDA government under Mr Vajpayee accelerated growth rates steadily and observed the fiscal prudence required not to let runaway inflation to break the backbone of people. The UPA-I built on all these developments. Global nuclear apartheid against India ended, with the country assuming a larger global profile by its participation in forums like G-8, G-20 and BRICS. But the UPA political dispensation is still dominated by powerful elements, wedded to populism and fiscal irresponsibility. The much-touted loan waiver to farmers and a series of so-called “entitlements” orchestrated by the extra-constitutional National Advisory Council led to an era of unrestrained populism. Few people remembered that the economic disaster in 1991 immediately followed a populist loan waiver for farmers by then Prime Minister VP Singh.

The unbridled populism saw the deficit of the Union Government, the net of asset sales, rise to 6.6 per cent of the GDP by March 2011, rising dramatically from 3.9 per cent of the GDP, in a very brief time span. Growth in the last quarter plummeted to 4.5 per cent. A populist Environment Minister brought in regulations destined to inordinately delay project clearances. The lack of transparency in decision making has led to a situation where despite its vast resources of coal, imports of coal are rising alarmingly. With the prices of imported coal rising, power shortages are becoming endemic even in traditionally well-administered states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Industrial growth is slowing and new investments are becoming scarce as Indian entrepreneurs seek greener pastures abroad for investment. Every rating agency, foreign investor and foreign government knows that India has become a difficult investment destination.

It is now commonly mentioned that BRICS would be better served if India is replaced by Indonesia, where economic management is prudent and sound and the investment climate free of delays and uncertainties, which investors experience in India. The current joke is that while corruption is present everywhere in emerging markets, one sees “efficient corruption” in China but faces “inefficient corruption”” in India! While the Finance Minister has promised to reduce the fiscal deficit, India faces an equally serious problem of a burgeoning current account deficit, recently estimated at 6.7 per cent of the GDP, being larger in percentage terms than it was during the crisis of 1991. In these circumstances, it was somewhat ludicrous for New Delhi to be advocating a BRICS Investment Bank, in which India would be a relatively minor player, given China’s vast reserves and potential. This at a time when observers believe that we may have to seek a bailout from the West-dominated IMF, whose influence the BRICS Bank is designed to erode.

Reports from Durban that South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma did not bother about meeting our Prime Minister while he was busy feting President Xi Jinping and President Putin are disturbing. Moreover, while other Heads of Government were housed comfortably in Durban, Dr Manmohan Singh was made to stay 40 kilometres away from the Conference venue. Lack of due courtesy and consideration to an Indian Prime Minister is not an issue we can ignore or take lightly. Indian prestige and credibility today are at its lowest in recent years. In the Maldives, we have been outmanoeuvred by a wily President Waheed who, under our noses, bought insurance from China and Pakistan. On Sri Lanka, we have vacillated in the UN Human Rights Commission between sticking to a principled position of opposing intrusive, country-specific resolutions and the “compulsions of coalition politics” in Tamil Nadu. In the process, we have gratuitously offended a friendly neighbour and not persuaded public opinion in Tamil Nadu of the merits of our stand. Moreover, we should ask ourselves whether our diplomacy has really helped a friendly Prime Minster, facing serious challenges from Islamic extremists in Bangladesh.

There are serious challenges we will confront while approaching the conclusion of the American “end game” in Afghanistan, in December 2014. Are we clear on what needs to be done to meet the challenge of an ISI-backed Taliban and its affiliates? Moreover, we could well see the PPP-led coalition replaced in Pakistan by a Nawaz Sharif-led coalition, which includes rabidly anti-Indian elements from the Islamic parties. With the defence budget reduced to 1.79 per cent of the GDP and essential acquisitions delayed or postponed, do we have capabilities to deter adventurism and terrorism from across our borders? These issues will hopefully receive attention when the Budget session of Parliament resumes.

MIDDLE

Friday breakfast
by VP Prabhakar

When I was transferred to Chandigarh in 1988 from Patiala, I was supposed to cover Haryana. At that time the Haryana patriarch, Devi Lal, was the Chief Minister of the state.

He was very much respected by one and all and, in fact, he was a father- figure to many politicians, bureaucrats and even media persons. He would not mind mixing up with people in villages and share their problems while sitting with them in chaupals. He could sway the villagers with his rustic charm.

He was easily approachable to the media. It was noticed by me that often media persons in groups used to meet him in his office in the Haryana Civil Secretariat to exchange views on any important subject and would seek his reactions. Sometime it used to be just a chit-chat session.

During those days important politicians of various political parties were busy having contacts with each other in order to form a third front in the country and Devi Lal was very active in this. At the same time he was also not very happy about the slow progress being made in this direction.

However, to keep the media persons in good humour and also to avoid daily meetings, he told them that all media persons should have a breakfast meeting with him at his official residence in Chandigarh every Friday. These meetings used to be attended by one and all as no newsman had ever missed them. If Devi Lal used to be out of Chandigarh because of certain engagements, only then this meeting could not be held. This press conference used to be very popular.

Haryanavi dishes also used to be served off and on and we used to relish them. It used to be sumptuous feast. Many a time bajre-ki-poori, ghee-shakar, ghee-bajra and lassi used to be in the menu.

Besides news about the various subjects of the state, one regular subject used to be the progress about the formation of what came to be called the Janata Dal. At one of the meetings, Devi Lal said that the main problem was that leaders of different parties did not want to lose their fiefdoms. When the parties would be merged then there would be one president, one vice-president, one secretary and so on. Hence, this was a stumbling block in the process. However, he said that he was hopeful that ultimately they all would agree to merge. He was optimistic about it.

Devi Lal had announced in advance that if the Janata Dal was formed and it won the Lok Sabha poll, VP Singh would the Prime Minister. However, when the Janata Dal was formed and it fought the 1989 Lok Sabha elections under this banner, VP Singh, Chandra Shekhar and Devil Lal, besides others, were elected members of the Lok Sabha.

As the wheel moved further, it was realised by Devi Lal that even Chandra Shekhar was an aspirant to the Prime Minister’s post which situation perhaps he had not anticipated. To avoid any conflict, he told Chandra Shekhar that he himself would be the candidate for this post to which the leader from UP’s Balia district agreed.

At the meeting of the parliamentary committee of the Janata Dal, Devi Lal was unanimously elected as the leader. Keeping in view the parliamentary practice, the elected leader said that as the Prime Minister was supposed to meet world leaders and many other dignitaries, he should be well read and should be able to meet them on an equal footing. Therefore, VP Singh should be the next Prime Minister. The party agreed and Devil Lal became Deputy Prime Minister.

The Friday breakfast press conference of Devi Lal is still remembered by many media persons who were in Chandigarh then.

OPED SECURITY

Manipulations in cyberspace
Closely allied to cyber intrusion to procure information is the war to disable websites which are critical to the lives of nations and their citizens. More than the former, it is the latter phenomenon that should be a cause for concern to all of us.
R.K. Raghavan

A leading national newspaper has carried a sensational news item regarding a former Prime Minister on what he allegedly did very much before he assumed office. This is based on a leak of one of the so-called Kissinger cables. We are not concerned here with the veracity of the charge, something, I am sure will be furiously debated every waking hour until 2014 when we elect our new masters.

The Internet is no longer a safe medium to communicate, especially when famous personalities and their peccadilloes are under scrutiny Thinkstockphotos/Gettyimages

The point most relevant to me is the revered daily that has carried the screaming headline claims that its scoop is the product of its "investigative collaboration" with the infamous WikiLeaks, which specialises in unfolding historic events showing governments and individuals in high places having been privy to dubious transactions. The information hacked out of sensitive U.S. government websites by WikiLeaks is mostly from State Department cables, a minefield of information and revelations.

No-holds-barred race for grabbing information

The kind of credibility that the anonymous group of hackers (who are behind WikiLeaks) have acquired should send shivers down the spines of decision-makers all over the globe. What is interesting and significant is that facts so obtained seem to pass muster even with the traditionally conservative users and purveyor of information.

These papers have shown an appetite for news from unusual sources, a development which means that there is now a universal rapacious and no-holds-barred race for grabbing information from wherever it is available. This competition has lent respectability to a pursuit of news which would have been frowned upon until a decade ago as unethical. We are yet to forget the unsavoury episode two years ago of the hacking of cell phones in the U.K. by a newspaper to give credibility to a crime story.

Not surprisingly government websites are the much sought after targets because it is governments which have to resort to cover-ups all the time for sheer political survival. This is confirmation - if one was needed -- that the Internet is no longer a safe medium to communicate, especially when famous personalities and their peccadilloes are under scrutiny. It is especially dangerous when you use it for fulfilling your venal desires.

It is now an open secret that hackers by the hundreds are on the prowl, and you must always be on your guard. These plunderers are loose cannon who would not spare even the holiest of cows. Some of them are merely adventurous. The others are downright commercial, peddling exciting information for money. There is, therefore, a constant battle of wits between those who want to protect and hide information and those who want to unveil it.

An undeclared war between two major groups

The long predicted cyber terrorism is still an academic concept. Attacks against critical infrastructure such as air traffic control and power and water supply have still not happened on a dimension that could be forbidding. Otherwise there is everything else to indicate that the cyberspace will be exploited ruthlessly to settle scores between nations.

An undeclared war in cyberspace is now being fought among two broad groups, reminiscent of the cold war years. On the one side are the perceived victims, who are mostly Western nations. South Korea, Israel, Saudi Arabia and India are also fellow-victims because of their close relations with the West, especially the U.S. Arrayed against them are Russia, China, and North Korea.

Iran is a recent entrant to the club, and is said to be slowly acquiring the prowess to cause damage to Israeli networks. Its might was revealed in an attack last year against what is described as the world's largest oil producer Saudi Aramco, when data on 30,000 computers was erased and substituted with the image of a burning American flag.

Reports of hacking of several Israeli government websites last weekend fit in with the analysis that the country's sworn enemies will continue to target its installations, both on land and in cyberspace. Pakistan is one of the lesser members of this infamous club. Its main objective is to annoy India. Because of its limited knowledge and resources its impact in this game has been minimal.

Chinese hand in every cyber transgression

Dominant in the global cyber conflict scenario is the overwhelming suspicion against China. The latter has vehemently denied any involvement in episodes in which investigation by experts in cyber security had traced back sources of attack to Internet Protocol (IP) addresses belonging to some Chinese cities, especially Shanghai.

The White House, paranoid about the Chinese hand in every cyber transgression, has gone to the extent of providing a list of suspect addresses in that country to Internet Service Providers(ISPs) in the U.S. Some information culled out from intensive research has actually pointed fingers at the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Information is so specific that a Unit 61398 of the PLA located in Shanghai's Pudong district is mentioned as the culprit.

A Chinese network, GhostNet, was mentioned by Canadian researchers a few years ago as having been behind the compromise of some Indian networks. The Pakistani hand in the defacement of some Indian official websites from time to time has been rightly dismissed as an amateurish attempt to cause discomfiture to us. Nevertheless, we need to keep a close watch.

Significant is the fact that it is not government machinery alone that is the target. Private commercial establishments, especially leading banks, have suffered great dislocation and loss of reputation in the past few years. Last month there was a calculated offensive against the American Express computer network that lasted two hours, during which access to its lawful customers was denied. Known as the Denial of Service (DoS) attacks this has become the most favourite weapon to disrupt commercial routine on any busy day.

Targeting commercial establishments

The technique is to flood the targeted network with an unusual number of requests for service from one or more computers at any particular point of time, so that legitimate customers are unable to get through with their transactions.

A few months ago the same miscreants were known to have been responsible for bringing down the websites of JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and the Bank of America. The group involved called themselves the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Cyber Fighters, a suspected alias for Iran.

In the attack last month against South Korea, inspired mostly by North Korea, the targets were banks as well as TV networks. More than 30,000 computers were affected in the process. According to some experts, the recent offensive was much more sophisticated than the ones a few years ago, indicating that technology is being grossly misused for crime and that defensive arrangements were unable to match or repulse the raiders.

How does one cope with these increasing signs of disarray in cyberspace? Both the U.S. and U.K. governments have shown extreme sensitivity to the problem. Their focus has been mainly on enhancing transparency in the sharing of information and expertise with the private sector. A "Secure Facebook" concept has been aired to facilitate a real time exchange of information.

New Delhi has made some noises that suggest an inhibition-free collaboration with the U.S. This is as it should be. What is dismaying is the reluctance to share information on incidents that show vulnerabilities of our more important networks. Both the government and the private industry are guilty of this lack of vision. We need to learn from our mistakes and proved gaps in cyber security. Till this happens we cannot proclaim to the rest of the world that we are cyber savvy and progressive.

The writer is a former Director of the CBI