The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

ARTICLE

Unending crisis in Nepal
Fresh elections may be helpful
by Hari Bansh Jha

AS it is well known, the people's war initiated by the Maoists lasted a decade between 1996 and 2006 in Nepal. During that period, more than 18,000 people were killed. Rampant cases of atrocities were committed by the warring factions against the civilian population in the form of extra-judicial killings, disappearances and abductions. Also, quite common were the cases of beatings, threats, humiliation, forced unethical acts, rape and sexual harassment. It is estimated that 150,000 to 400,000 people were displaced due to the conflict. The rebellious forces confiscated the property of a large number of people. Besides, government buildings, health posts, drinking water systems, police posts, airports, schools, roads and telecom systems were damaged or destroyed in different parts of the country. The economic cost of the conflict is estimated at 8 to 10 per cent of the GDP. Such activities took the country at least three decades back!

However, the Maoists signed a comprehensive peace agreement with the Government of Nepal in 2006 to end the decade-long people's war. That agreement was reached after the Maoists failed to capture any of the districts, though they had influence in each part of the country. The government was also tired because it failed to bring the Maoists to their size. So, the agreement was a compulsion for both the warring factions.

Soon after the historic agreement reached between the rebel forces and the government, the elections for the 601-member Constituent Assembly (CA) were conducted in 2008. To the surprise of many political pundits, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) emerged as the single largest political party. Elections for the posts of President and Vice-President were also successfully completed.

As per the Interim Constitution of Nepal, the CA was expected to draft and endorse the constitution within two years. In the process of sweeping change, the 239-year-old monarchical institution was abolished. The country was declared a federal republic, though a federal structure is yet to be evolved. Overnight, the country became secular, when it was known as the only Hindu country in the world. The 19,500 Maoist fighters were made to give up arms and live in seven cantonments and 21 satellite camps under the supervision of United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN).

People put their faith in the new leadership. The leaders gave a vision of making new Nepal. It was expected that the new government headed by the Maoists would bring about significant transformation in the socio-economic and political set-up of the country.

But soon people's faith in the new political leadership crumbled. The leaders became interested in power game rather than doing anything for the welfare of the people. Virtually, the position of Prime Minister became a musical chair. In the power game, the Prime Minister hardly stays in office for more than one year. Since 2008 Nepal has witnessed five Prime Ministers in five years!

The only major breakthrough that was made after 2008 was to address the issue of Maoist fighters living in different cantonments. Most of the fighters were made to leave the cantonments when they were offered hefty perks from the state treasury under the voluntary retirement scheme. Yet the gains made through the demobilisation of the Maoist fighters from the cantonments are likely to be hijacked. An effort is being made by certain quarters to mobilise the demobilised fighters, apart from other politically indoctrinated Maoist cadets, to push the country towards further conflict.

The Maoists have not yet returned the property of individuals that they had confiscated. The Truth and Reconciliation Committee or even the committee on disappeared people is yet to be formed. As a result, those who committed crimes during the conflict period are getting rewarded.

Over and above, foreign investment projects, including hydropower projects, have been attacked. Vehicles with foreign number plates have been vandalised. Instruction is given to stop movies and music programmes prepared from foreign soil. Even certain crucial treaties and agreements, including the arrangement for an open border system, are being challenged.

Amidst mounting controversy, an MOU has recently been signed between the Lumbini Development National Directive Committee headed by Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal and the Hong Kong-based Chinese supported INGO, the Asia Exchange and Cooperation Foundation. As per the speculation, a provision is made to invest $3 billion for the development of infrastructural facilities at Lumbini, the birthplace of Lord Buddha. But many people feel that the Lumbini project has some hidden motive and it is not what is projected. Since the location of Lumbini is at a stone's throw from the Nepal-India border, the project could have major strategic implications for India. Such activities might further trigger rivalry between China and India on the Nepalese soil.

Most importantly, the sense of growing alienation and deprivation among certain ethnic communities in Nepal for their lopsided representation in politics, the judiciary, security agencies, and the diplomatic and administrative structure is also a matter of concern. Towards this end, the Madhesis in the Terai had launched a movement in 2008. The situation somewhat calmed after the government signed an agreement with the agitating leaders and met their demands of a separate federal state with the right of self-determination. Nevertheless, dozens of armed groups have come up in this region. It is difficult even to travel freely from one part of the Terai to the other due to the existence of such armed groups. Similarly, certain ethnic communities in the eastern hill region of Nepal have been agitating in favour of a federal state, and the law and order situation in that region is equally precarious.

The government is simply a mute spectator and doing very little to defuse the crisis. As a result, most of the industrial units in Nepal are closed due to the erratic supply of electricity, poor availability of raw materials, labour militancy, forced donations and frequent closure (bandhs) of one or the other region. The agricultural sector is the hardest hit due to the lack of investment and labour shortage.

As the unemployment rate is 42 per cent, more than 1,500 youths have been leaving the country each day in search of jobs overseas, including Malaysia, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. One estimate has it that more than 3 million of the 30 million Nepalese have been working in foreign countries other than in India through legal and illegal channels.

The per capita income of the Nepalese is still as low as $ 650. The rate of economic growth is 3.8 per cent.

The situation of Nepal is getting aggravated at a time the Constituent Assembly failed to draft the new constitution after its repeated extensions. What Nepal does have is merely a care-taker government which cannot take any crucial decision except doing day-to-day work. The Prime Minister's commitment to conduct fresh elections for the Nepalese Parliament on November 22 also failed to materialise. The government in Nepal has virtually no mandate of the people to rule the country.

During the present moment of political crisis, the ruling Maoist party seems to be in favor of revival of the dissolved CA, while other opposition parties like the Nepali Congress and the CPN (UML) are for holding fresh elections. Perhaps, the President of Nepal could have given a certain direction to the country in this hour of crisis. But nothing tangible is coming from that institution as well.

It should be understood that the revival of the CA is not the solution to the problem in the same way as conducting elections by the party in power is not going to bring any tangible peace and stability in the country. How can the CA that could not deliver any positive result during four years will prove worthy now? There is equally a possibility of manipulation if the party in power is allowed to conduct fresh elections. Against this background, the President has to see that a new government is formed under the retired judge of the Supreme Court and parliamentary elections are conducted along with the polls for local level bodies, including the Village Development Committees, municipalities and District Development Committees, so that power is genuinely transferred to the people's representatives. The sooner the fresh elections are held in a free and fair manner at the central and local levels and power is transferred to the new bodies, the better will be the chance to avert any impending crisis looming ahead.

The writer is a Kathmandu-based political analyst.

MIDDLE

Excitement on sail
by Rajbir Deswal

It’s a mild float when the ferry goes off the anchor. Then it’s almost the trail of a rocket propelled backwards. The entire skyline strewn with building-blocks on the shore begins to appear dwindling. The ferry moves leaving behind white froth as if to mark its water path. The land right at the back seems to rattle, while the boat stately moves on with scaled-up speed, making the huge water jets on both sides look like mighty waves. These jets, when they travel sideways as waves, rock the lesser floats, strongly enough to let their lilting becoming almost a last ditch effort to survive in an ocean of travesties. The Queen Anne side, with an imposing Space Needle starts dimming, when even the big Mount Rainier seems to strive, to audaciously put up its white façade on the vast horizon.

This is how we set sails on Victoria Clipper, a ferry service connecting Seattle to Victoria, the capital of British Columbia, which still has a certain British stamp on almost everything, including the ivy roofs. It’s a downtown-to-downtown sail of about three hours when, from the highrises, you reach a set of buildings within the reach and angle of the elevation of the eye, allowing a peep into the horizon above, and far beyond. Sea-planes keep ‘landing’ on water here, and taking off.

The ferry-deck has all the “lively, liberated and sort of alleviated” souls on it while the more “sober, sophisticated and sort of well-heeled” tend to stay inside the belly, which has two levels. Generally, the people are well-dressed and for a while it seems the casuals are meant just for wearing at home. An old man, immaculately attired, smiles at me seeing me eat my apple. He has a young girl with mongoloid features slouched by his side who, unmindful of the excitement around, is only reading from her book.

The deck has a typical ambiance with all the paraphernalia that goes with sailing over waters like lifebuoys, ropes, anchor, lanterns, etc. Those who have their seats on almost the prow do have an added advantage to feel a flight, so close to the waters being propelled backwards. The snow-peaks of the Olympics Mountain Range are visible as if rising from a dark-blue cut-out of the hilly geometry. They announce some duty-free items and on-board tickets for Victoria do-ables.

On the deck I found one of the mariner staff with a trademark beard, and since I too flaunted a French-cut for a couple of weeks, we exchanged smiles like true-blue sailors! I saw some enthusiasts who preferred to spend all their time on the deck. Some others lie on unconventional niches here and there. I see a bird “landing” on the nearly calm waters, staying there for a while, rocking and then again taking to the skies, as if it just came there to perform a pretend-play of “Birds can do it this way!”

There appears a barge on the window when the girl with mongoloid eyes has her friend tap her shoulder from behind, to draw her attention to the float. The girl looks out, reaches out to her camera, takes a picture of the barge, puts back the camera, and is lost in the book again — O God! Why did they make cameras to be handled by such people who carry them but only in their bags, or with slings! And why did they create books when there was much to see around! Another guy had to be woken up to fill the Customs form. Excitement means differently to different people. But for most of us it was a clipper of dullness on board, on sail!

OPED

Cambodia after King Sihanouk
Cambodia recently hosted the ASEAN Summit. World leaders, including the Prime Minister of India, descended on Phnom Penh. The most famous and durable leader of Cambodia has been King Norodom Sihanouk. A look into the country’s past and its relations with India
K Natwar Singh

Hindu religion and culture made peaceful penetrations into what till the last quarter of the 20th century was known as Indo-China. Here two great civilizations met and co-existed. The Khmer Kingdom (Cambodia) was the largest, the most prosperous and sophisticated kingdoms in South East Asia. From Burma to Bali even today one can see the architectural wonders, which distinctly carry the stamp of Hinduism and Buddhism. Angkor Vat in Cambodia and Borobodor in Indonesia are sublime works of art. The rulers of the vast Kamboj Empire governed it from Angkor. These rulers were called Devaraja and Buddharaja. Their rule lasted from AD 150 to A.D 1471.

A view of the Royal Palace in Cambodia. Below: King Norodom Sihanouk's picture on a bank note. Photos: Shutterstock

Angkor disappeared for nearly hundred years under tree and forest. As it happened to Ajanta and Ellora. The former was ‘discovered’ by a French man and the latter by an Englishman. I have given this thumb nail historical background because our knowledge of such facts is abysmally meager. The kingdom of Cambodia became a French colony in 1883. It remained so till the end of 1953. Between 1941 and 1945 Cambodia was in Japanese hands. Nevertheless they allowed the French administration to continue.

The most famous and durable leader of Cambodia has been His Majesty King Norodom Sihanouk. Jawaharlal Nehru broke journey in Phnom Penh on his way back from China in October 1954. He spent 24 hours there and met the young King and liked him. It was at this meeting that Sihanouk expressed his wish to attend the Bandung conference to be held there in April 1955. Nehru told him that he looked forward to meeting him there.

A flying start

Before going to Bandung, the Cambodian leader came to India for an eight-day visit, 16-24th March. I was appointed a liaison officer. The Prime Minister was at Palam airport to receive him. Soon a plane was seen approaching Palam airport. Suddenly it pulled up. It made several rounds flying over the airport. This exercise lasted more than ten minutes. The P.M. was getting restless. No one could enlighten him on the strange antics of the pilot. Finally it landed. Norodom Sihanouk came out of the plane wearing a white closed collar coat and a black dhoti -- the formal dress of his country. The P.M. asked him why his plane kept circling over the airport for so long. The reply deserves immortality. The Prince told Pt. Nehru that his pilot was a French national. The aviation map he was using for chartering his fly path only showed Safdarjung airport. We discovered that the map carried the date, 1936. Palam airport did not exist then. Our Cambodian friends were 29 years old of date.

Even a more hilarious situation followed. The Prince had brought four or five Buddhist monks with him. On the P.M.’s instructions we too brought our monks. Pali was their common language. Normally monks are composed and serene. The P.M. noticed that our monks appeared in a state of shock. He asked what the matter was. The reply this time was earthshaking. Our monks asked the Cambodian monks who were to stay with them, what their dietary preferences were. The answer was, “beef”.

That was my first introduction to Cambodia and its adventurous, frequent King. I accompanied him to Sanchi (one of the oldest artistic achievements of Buddhist architects) and Bodhgaya. I did not parley with him for the next 35 years.

The Indo-China situation got complex and confused during the Vietnam war. The Americans bombed Cambodia time and time again. Nixon and Kissinger played with the lives of thousands of Cambodians. One has only to read Barbara Tuchman’s essay on Kissinger in her book, “Practicing History”; it shows Dr. Kissinger in poor light. The U.S. role in Indo-China does that country no credit. The deplorable details of their activities are given in Norodom Sihanouk’s book, “My War with the C.I.A.”

A Vietnamese request

My sustained involvement with Cambodia began in January 1987 when I was on a visit to Hanoi. An astute foreign minister, Nguyen Co Thach took me aside and said he wanted India’s help on Cambodia. Hanoi had decided to pull out its troops from Cambodia by 1989. Could India convey this to ASEAN countries? I naturally asked, “Why India.” His answer was gratifying: “Because you have credibility.” For Vietnam this was a geo-political question of the highest importance. Hanoi by this time came to know that Gorbachev, in the not too distance future, would withdraw Russian troops from Afghanistan.

I reported my conversation with Co Thatch to Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. At once he saw the significance of this Vietnamese request to us. He asked me to visit all ASEAN capitals. In Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, Thailand I got a cold shoulder. These countries did not trust Vietnam nor believed that her offer to withdraw troops from Cambodia was genuine. Only in Jakarta, the Indonesian foreign minister gave me a hearing. He too was skeptical. A diplomat should never be euphoric nor disheartened. That’s theory. Diplomats are not robots, sans feeling. I was not in the dumps, nor was I elated. My mission had so far been unproductive.

The only encouragement came when I visited Phnom Penh, the capital of Cambodia. It was then the most dismal place I had ever visited. Phnom Penh did not even have a daily newspaper. Mr. Hun Sen, the Prime Minister, enquired if India could arrange a meeting between him and Prince Sihanouk.

Conference on Cambodia

This we agreed to do. I met the deposed King in Jakarta, New York and Paris. Our efforts bore fruit. The meeting between the protagonists took place in Paris in December 1987. An agreement was reached after four meetings. The International Conference on Cambodia was held in Paris in August and September 1989. The foreign ministers of the U.S.S.R, China, France and the U.S. Secretary of State attended. I represented India. At the conference several powerful countries were reluctant to attribute “genocide” to the Pol Pot regime. In my statement I made it clear that the Pol Pot regime (the Khumer Rouge) was guilty of genocide in Cambodia between 1975-78. The majority were of the same view.

The Vietnamese withdrew their troops. The process of reconciliation and reconstruction commenced (Pol Pot had killed two millions Cambodians out of a population of eight million) and Cambodia gradually emerged from the menacing and murderous tunnel into light and liberty.

Cambodia has been recently in the news when it hosted the ASEAN Summit. World leaders have descended on Phnom Penh. Some years earlier I too participated in a similar Summit in Vientiane, the capital of Laos. I had accompanied Manmohan Singh.

This was an error. Foreign ministers should avoid accompanying Heads of Government on such occasions. Heads are not over worked. The foreign ministers have no work at all. I am also not in favour of Summit diplomacy. It is risky business. The heads of delegation -- presidents and prime ministers -- have neither the time nor the expertise to address serious problems. No discussion takes place. At the opening and closing ceremonies, the leaders deliver speeches, largely keeping their home audiences in mind. Their speeches are not inspiring. They produce somnolence.

Positive outcomes

Now to the positive aspects. Heads have one-to-one meetings with their counterparts. At these bilateral issues are taken up. These contacts are much less formal. Not only the Heads get to know each other better, in some cases rapport is achieved. Manmohan Singh’s character excludes intimacy, but he is a highly respected participant. India is certainly a regional super power. It can to some extent tilt the balance on political and economic issues. The officials too get to know each other well. This also helps in negotiations and discussions. Manmohan Singh has taken constructive steps to strengthen Asian economic regionalism. On the political front India has been less forthcoming. Much more needs to be done. China, India and U.S.national interests take precedence. The security of smaller countries needs propping up. An Asian regional order does not exist. The U.S and China do not see eye to eye on this issue. The two countries are not overtly antagonists, but their rivalry is a fact.

The Wen Jiabao-Manmohan Singh meeting covered much ground. The subjects taken up included economic co-operation, the boundary problem and maritime security. This meeting was strictly bilateral. The agenda of the Summit had nothing to do with it.

One concrete outcome, from India’s point of view, was the Prime Minister’s declaration that India would sign the much-delayed Free Trade Agreement in services and investment. He said, “India is prepared to conclude the Agreement on Trade in services and Investment Promotion before the commemorative Summit in Delhi in December.

This augurs well, except that our internal problems, if not resolved, can only weaken our efforts on the regional and international fronts. Asia and the World are watching.

The writer is a former External Affairs Minister