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Petty politics at play
Zardari’s masterstroke
Taking the extreme step |
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Handling the Kasab case
Himachal's chilgoza
Reforming national security decision-making
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Petty politics at play AFTER the 2008 nuclear deal the Manmohan Singh government faces its second do-or-die moment over FDI in retail. Though Mamata Banerjee has left the door ajar till Friday, her insistence on the withdrawal of all key decisions and assertion that the reforms were meant to divert attention from “Coalgate” leave little room for a rapprochement. The government’s survival now depends on support from the Samajwadi Party, which is unreliable and stands to benefit if the general election is advanced, or the Bahujan Samaj Party, which too would seek its pound of flesh. The government tried to placate it recently by pushing the promotion quota Bill. Political parties are by and large playing petty politics, disregarding the larger national interest. The country is at a critical juncture. The GDP growth has slumped from 9 per cent two years ago to 5 per cent now. This should engage the attention of the national and regional parties, which are pursuing politics of populism – announcing welfare programmes without taking hard decisions to raise resources to fund them. It is all very well for Mamata Banerjee to keep rail fares low and oppose the diesel price hike, but how will the Railways grow and how are the pro-poor programmes to be financed? The previous Left government in West Bengal tried its best to attract private investment. When Delhi does the same, it sees red. The BJP economic policies, broadly, are no different from those of the Congress. The Vajpayee government had decontrolled diesel, which meant market forces would determine its price. How can it now oppose a price hike carried out after 15 months? Corruption and black money are issues that need to be dealt with. Ways and means to end crony capitalism have to be found through discussions in Parliament, not by rendering it non-functional. Shrinking growth and rising unemployment should worry the parties more than short-term goals of grabbing power or dislodging those at the helm. Growth cannot pick up without foreign investment. The UPA’s problem is no one explains what it is doing in simple terms to the people.
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Zardari’s masterstroke
WHEN
Pakistan Prime Minister Raja Parvez Ashraf told his country’s Supreme Court that his government would withdraw the letter sent in 2007 to the Swiss authorities for the closure of the graft cases against President Asif Zardari, it must have calculated the consequences of its action. Zardari claims that Ashraf consulted him before he decided to give the significant undertaking to the court. Obviously, they have found out that nothing is going to happen so far as the position of Zardari is concerned. Two possibilities can be seen as a result this development. The Swiss authorities might have informed the Pakistan government that they cannot proceed against Zardari as the Pakistan constitution provides him immunity against criminal cases. Moreover, there is a time limit within which the Swiss law allows reopening of cases against an accused person. The time fixed for the purpose has reportedly ended. The apex court of Pakistan had annulled in 2009 the controversial amnesty granted to Zardari and thousands of others involved in graft cases through the controversial National Reconciliation Ordinance issued by the Pervez Musharraf regime. The judiciary, too, perhaps wants to get rid of the situation created as a result of the efforts to bring Zardari to justice. He is accused of having kept a huge amount earned through dubious means in his Swiss bank accounts. The Pakistan Prime Minister is believed to have succeeded in getting the judiciary’s attitude towards the government softened. He has been careful not to speak against the court or the Chief Justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Chaudhry, in public, unlike his predecessor Yousuf Raza Gilani, who had taken a hard line and suffered in the process. The softening of the attitude of the executive has paid off. An influential section in Pakistan had been arguing for some time for the two sides to find an honourable way out of the crisis as it was not in the larger interest of that country. Questions were also being raised about the real motive of Chief Justice Chaudhry behind the judiciary being so determined in punishing Zardari despite the constitutional immunity he enjoyed. What happens now will be interesting to watch.
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Taking the extreme step
Suicides
are often seen as individual acts of desperation. But when a family of five, including small children, commits suicide by throwing themselves in front of a running train, as has happened in a case in Yamunangar, it’s time for social thinkers and health professionals to sit up and take notice. More so since the Yamunanagar incident is not a solitary case. Similar shocking incidents have been taking place with alarming regularity. What is even more intriguing is that suicide pacts have been observed among different age groups and classes. In Kolkata, two teenage girls jumped to death from a high-rise building and an elderly couple decided to end their lives in a suicide pact. In a country where 16 people commit suicide every hour, the gravity of the problem can’t be ignored. Indeed, just as no single factor can be attributed to suicides, there could be varying reasons behind suicide pacts. Marital discord and broken love affairs have often been suggested as reasons behind the suicide pact of couples. Loneliness and alienation could be the trigger behind some other cases. Unfulfilled aspirations and extreme poverty have also been the contributing factors. But whatever may be the trigger, one thing is clear that when individuals call it quits, it’s not because of depression alone but is also indicative of society’s failure in supporting them in their moments of crisis. Time and again experts have stressed that most suicides are preventable tragedies. While suicide pacts could be a more serious breakdown of both the societal structure and human behaviour, these too are tragedies that can be averted. As a society, we need to evolve a comprehensive mechanism which must encompass various aspects. A supportive family, sensitive neighbourhood and a responsive mental healthcare system can go a long way in ensuring that people choose life over death. Be it an individual case of suicide or a pact, both are nothing but a cry for help. Only if society would pay heed in time.
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To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often. — Winston Churchill
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Handling the Kasab case Ajmal
Kasab, who has sought mercy from President Pranab Mukherjee, was one of the Lashkar-e-Toiba jehadis who carried out the attacks on important Mumbai targets on November 26, 2008, in which 166 persons were killed. The death penalty awarded to him has been confirmed by the Supreme Court. It may be recalled that the 26/11 attacks were planned by the ISI of Pakistan in collaboration with the Lashkar-e-Toiba. The ISI had hired the building near Karachi International Airport, from where instructions were given to the jehadis for carrying out the horrible attacks. The evidence provided by Zabiuddin Ansari alias Abu Jundal has given full details of the operation. The entire team of attackers sailed from Karachi port and midway to Mumbai, captured an Indian fishing boat, murdered the Indian boatmen and continued their sailing to Mumbai harbour. The targets for attacks had been earlier selected by the Pakistani-Canadian agent, Headley. After landing, the attackers made their way to Taj Hotel and carried out systematic attacks killing all those who were found. One part of the attacking group occupied an Israeli prayer hall-cum-residence in the neighbourhood and carried out systematic attacks and killed everyone found there. The jehadi attackers later dispersed in various directions and one of the team went to Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminal where people were killed indiscriminately. Ajmal Kasab was wounded in the exchange of fire between him and the Mumbai security forces who were out on the streets and he was the only person who was arrested alive. But for his capture and his confession, which he made before the magistrate, the horrible story of the Pakistanis’ role in the Mumbai attacks would not have come out. Kasab was prosecuted along with two Indians who were also arrested during the attacks on suspicion that they were part of the jehadis. The trial court convicted Kasab and acquitted two others, Fahim Ansari and Sabauddin Ahmed. The conviction of Kasab as well as the acquittal of two others was later upheld by the Mumbai High Court. The case eventually went on appeal by Ajmal Kasab to the Supreme Court. A Bench of Justices Aftab Alam and C.K. Prasad heard the case and pronounced the judgement on August 29. It is a landmark judgement in many ways. The judges upheld the conviction of Ajmal Kasab and the acquittal of two others charged along with him as was done by the trial court and the High Court. The judges said, "Hardly does one come across a case where the court does not resort to certain probability" as a working substitute for proof beyond all reasonable doubts. Justice Prasad commented, "I am more than certain that the planning and the conspiracy to commit the crime were hatched in Pakistan, the perpetrators were Pakistan-trained at different centres in that country and the devastations which took place at various places in Mumbai were executed by the appellant in furtherance thereof.” Justice Alam said that the accused persons and their conspirators committed offence of waging war against the Government of India. They added the attack was aimed at India and Indians and it was by foreign nationals. People were killed for no other reason than they were Indians. The judges referred to Pakistan's demand that India should withdraw from Kashmir and that it was intended to show to other countries that the attack was in furtherance of those objectives. The Bench went on to say that the deception carried out by Pakistan was ominous, but it was aimed at destabilising Indian society and government. The case presented an element of previous planning and preparation for the execution of the conspiracy. The appellant was a mere tool in the hands of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). He joined the LeT in December 2007 and continued as its member. Despite a number of opportunities to leave it, accused Kasab continued his association with LeT which shows his jehadi mentality and his commitment to terrorism. The judges also said that the role of state actors of Pakistan stood exposed and that this was the first time that it was being shown to the entire world through legal channels how India was subject to terrorism and how terrorism was being sponsored by Pakistan. The judges said that in terms of loss of life and, property and, more importantly, in its traumatising effect, this case stands alone. Or it is at least the very rarest of rare cases to come before the court since the birth of the Republic and, therefore, it should attract the rarest of rare punishment. They, therefore, confirmed the death sentence awarded by the lower courts. They said the death penalty could be the only sentence for Kasab’s crime. The Ajmal Kasab case and the Supreme Court judgement pronounced by Justice Aftab Alam and Justice C.K. Prasad are very important landmarks in the history of Indian jurisprudence. Of late, doubts have been expressed by high judicial quarters regarding the continuance of the death penalty in India. There are people who want abolition of the death penalty, including those in high positions in the judiciary. There are several judicial constraints which have been imposed on the pronouncement of death penalty in any particular case. Recently a well-known magazine carried an interview with one of the former Supreme Court judges. The judge explained that the Indian judiciary had moved away from the concept of retributive justice and that the death penalty for murder as a necessary concept was no more valid. It would be awarded only if it met the rarest of rare concept which was laid down in the Bachan Singh case judgement. The Judge was asked about the Ajmal Kasab case then pending before the Supreme Court. He was told to give his views on whether there were any mitigating circumstances in his case. Quite appropriately, the judge said that he would not express any view since the Kasab case was sub-judice. The interviewer, however, quoted some other observer as saying that even the Kasab case qualified for exemption from the death penalty because of two mitigating factors which were his age and the fact that he was ideology-driven. In the light of all these doubtful factors, the forthright judgement of Justice Aftab Alam and Justice C.K. Prasad, who constituted the Supreme Court Bench on the Kasab case, is very important. The judgement found no mitigating circumstances in the Kasab case. His age and ideology-driven mentality were obliterated by the fact that he was ruthless and remorseless in his deeds. He had many opportunities to free himself from the LeT but he continued in his jehadi venture. The judgement is also equally important for the forthright exposure of the role of the State of Pakistan in planning and executing the Mumbai attacks. No further proof is necessary for the world to realise that Pakistan has held on to terrorism as an instrument of state
policy. The writer is a former Governor of UP and West
Bengal
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Himachal's chilgoza IN Rekong Peo lying in Kinnaur, Himachal's tribal belt bordering Tibet, I was surprised to see Phulma Negi wearing a long necklace wherein raw chilgozas were strung. A shagan gift, it showcased ethnicity at its best. A product of lofty pines, costliest dry fruit chilgoza (neoza) is a pine nut to Westerners. Chilgoza tree, botanically called pinus gerardiana, derives its name from its discoverer Capt Alexander Gerard, a Scot officer and scientist who surveyed Himachal's Sutlej valley almost two centuries ago. Once imported from Afghanistan and Baluchistan, now chilgoza comes to us from snow-covered and picturesque Kinnaur, having India's only pine nut forest, covering 2,022 hectares. Unfortunately, these forests are dying gradually due to reckless harvesting by contractors who obtain chilgozas for commercial purposes. Natural regeneration of the neoza forest cover is already suffering. These trees check soil erosion as they grow in an arid and cold area, thereby protecting the environment. Today chilgoza, facing a dismal future, is declared as an endangered species. The Himachal government has formulated a 30-year project for the conservation of fast-depleting reserves of chilgoza. It will be a theme tree for the tribal region. Now saplings will be planted in office complexes, rest houses and schools. Kinnaur will have a park for the conservation of chilgoza varieties. An awareness drive on traditional sustainable management practices will also be launched. Its journey from pine trees to our table is unique. Chilgozas are actually seeds with edible kernels in them. Though this pine flowers in May-June, cones ripen in autumn. Chilgozas are obtained from ripe cones, which are its natural containers. But cones are plucked while they are green. They are heated, causing their scales to open. Then they are shaken and chilgozas just fall out, each cone yielding around 200 nuts. They are moisture-laden, being raw and soft. Kinnauris carry chilgozas to Lavi ka mela a commercial fair (held in Rampur, 135 km beyond Shimla, after Divali), the biggest trade fair of the inner Himalayas since ages, where bartering once prevailed. Merchants from the plains buy chilgozas from Kinnauris to auction them in Shimla and in the plains. However, raw chilgozas cannot be consumed. Paharis just heat a cauldron on medium flame with no oil in them. They are dry-roasted till the desired brown colour is obtained. They are cooled and stored in air-tight containers. In plains, they are dry-roasted before being retailed and processed in Delhi's Khari Baoli. Chilgozas can be dry-roasted manually in a
“bhatti” too. Having a heat producing effect, chilgozas have nutritive, carminative, expectorant and stimulant qualities. It's of immense medicinal value to Kinnauris and Pangwals, who use its oil to treat various skin ailments like wounds, ulcers, sores, etc. Further, this trees' wood that's tough, lasting and almost immune to fungus and water proof, makes it an ideal choice for building houses here. Tourists buy it as a souvenir of Himachal's lofty
pines.
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Reforming national security decision-making
Snippets from the report of the Naresh Chandra committee on defence reforms have been appearing in various newspapers and have once again focused attention on the hollowness of the national security decision making process and the need for urgent reforms. For many decades defence planning in India has been marked by knee jerk reactions to emerging situations and haphazard single-Service growth. The absence of a clearly enunciated national security strategy, poor civil-military relations, the lack of firm commitment of funds for modernisation beyond the current financial year and sub-optimal inter-service prioritisation, have handicapped defence planning. Consequently, till recently, the defence planning process had failed to produce the most effective force structure and force mix based on carefully drawn up long-term priorities. With projected expenditure of 100 billion US dollars on military modernisation over the next 10 years, it is now being realised that force structures must be configured on a tri-Service, long-term basis to meet future threats and challenges.
Early efforts The Sino-Indian Conflict in 1962 had aroused a new defence consciousness in the country after years of neglect and efforts to formalise defence planning began in 1964. Various organisational changes were tried out:
Structures for defence planning Most of the defence planning machinery and planning methodology was developed in the decade 1964-74:
Production and Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).
Weaknesses While efforts have been made to improve defence planning and suitable structural changes have been instituted within the defence ministry, implementation of the processes continue to be tardy. n Guidance: The CCS, chaired by the PM, meets as often as necessary to review emerging situations with adverse impact on national security so as to issue suitable policy directives. However, the National Security Council (NSC), also chaired by the PM, whose charter it is to evolve an integrated national security strategy and provide guidance for long-term defence planning, seldom meets. n Plans: Five-year defence plans are rarely accorded formal government approval. The Tenth Defence Plan (2002-07) was not approved at all and drifted along on an ad hoc basis. The Eleventh Defence Plan (2007-12), which ended on March 31, 2012, was also not formally approved. n Funding: Annual defence budgets, in which funds are committed only for one year at a time despite five-year defence plans having been in vogue for several decades, add an element of uncertainty to the planning process. Unutilised funds continue to lapse at the end of the financial year. n Coordination: The absence of an empowered CDS is a glaring anomaly. The COSC works on the basis of consensus and is unable to agree on inter-service priorities for force structuring and modernisation as every service wants a larger share of the pie. The services HQs make their own assumptions of the likely military strategy for future wars and plan their force structures accordingly. Consequently, the LTIPP is integrated merely in name and is actually only a compilation of single-service plans. n Acquisition: Despite the much-trumpeted reform in the procurement process, the acquisition of new weapons and equipment by the armed forces is still mired in bureaucratic red tape. n R&D: There is a dichotomy between the time consuming quest for technological self-reliance and the desire of the services to import arms and equipment based on immediate operational exigencies. The disconnect in the interface between R&D, production agencies and users remains unresolved. As a result, 'make' or 'buy' decisions are still contentious and DRDO projects continue to be delayed with consequent cost overruns.
Defence reforms In 1999, the Kargil Review Committee headed by the late K Subrahmanyam had been asked to "…review the events leading up to the Pakistani aggression in the Kargil District of Ladakh in Jammu & Kashmir; and to recommend such measures as are considered necessary to safeguard national security against such armed intrusions." Though it had been given a very narrow and limited charter, the committee looked holistically at the threats and challenges and examined the loopholes in the management of national security. The committee was of the view that the "political, bureaucratic, military and intelligence establishments appear to have developed a vested interest in the status quo.'' It made far reaching recommendations on the development of India's nuclear deterrence, higher defence organisations, intelligence reforms, border management, the defence budget, the use of air power, counter-insurgency operations, integrated manpower policy, defence research and development, and media relations. The committee's report was tabled in Parliament on February 23, 2000. The Cabinet Committee on Security appointed a Group of Ministers (GoM) to study the Kargil Review Committee report and recommend measures for implementation. The GoM, headed by the then Home Minister, LK Advani, in turn set up four task forces on intelligence reforms, internal security, border management and defence management to undertake in-depth analysis of various facets of the management of national security. The GoM recommended sweeping reforms to the existing national security management system. On May 11, 2001, the CCS accepted all its recommendations, including one for the establishment of the post of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) - which has still not been implemented. The CCS approved the following key measures:
Decision making is gradually becoming more streamlined. The new Defence Planning Guidelines have laid down three inter-linked stages in the planning process:
Ten years later, many lacunae still remain in the management of national security. The lack of inter-ministerial and inter-departmental coordination on issues like border management and centre-state disagreements over the handling of internal security are particularly alarming. In order to review the progress of implementation of the proposals approved by the CCS in 2001, the government appointed a Task Force on National Security led by Naresh Chandra, former Cabinet Secretary. The task force has submitted its report, which has been sent for inter-ministerial consultations.
Conclusion A fluid strategic environment, rapid advances in defence technology, the need for judicious allocation of scarce budgetary resources, long lead times required for creating futuristic forces and the requirement of synergising plans for defence and development, make long-term defence planning a demanding exercise. The lack of a cohesive national security strategy and defence policy has resulted in inadequate political direction regarding politico-military objectives and military strategy. Consequently, defence planning in India, till recently, has been marked by ad hoc decision making to tide over immediate national security challenges and long-term planning was neglected. This is now being gradually corrected and new measures have been instituted to improve long-term planning. It is now being increasingly realised that a Defence Plan must be prepared on the basis of a 15-year perspective plan. The first five years of the plan should be very firm (Definitive Plan), the second five years may be relatively less firm but should be clear in direction (Indicative Plan), and the last five years should be tentative (Vision Plan). A reasonably firm allocation of financial resources for the first five years and an indicative allocation for the subsequent period is a pre-requisite. Perspective planning is gradually becoming tri-Service in approach. It is now undertaken in HQ IDS, where military, technical and R&D experts take an integrated view of future threats and challenges based on a forecast of the future battlefield milieu, evaluation of strategic options and analysis of potential technological and industrial capabilities. Issues like intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, air defence, electronic warfare and amphibious operations, which are common to all the services, are now getting adequate attention. However, unless a CDS is appointed to guide integrated operational planning, it will continue to be mostly single-Service oriented in its conceptual framework. The writer is a Delhi-based defence analyst
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