New Delhi, November 7
The subsidy burden on oil will only move up higher in the next two quarters as demand picks up seasonally coupled with adverse exchange rate movement, according to a Morgan Stanley research note.

The note points out that petrol price hikes have been in sync with crude oil prices implying that decontrol is real. Petrol prices have increased Rs 18.9 per litre or 38 per cent to Rs 68.6 per litre from Rs 49.7 per litre in May 2010. These hikes are in sync with crude oil prices which have gone up almost 45 per cent from May 2010.

Although the petrol price hikes have been less than the rise in crude oil prices, the customs duty on crude oil was cut to zero from 5 per cent earlier which has benefited oil marketing companies’ realisation on petrol prices.

Morgan Stanley estimates that the next quarter’s subsidy bill will be $5.6 billion, almost 20 per cent higher than $4.7 billion in the second quarter.

Of the Rs 1.82 per litre hike in petrol effected by the oil marketing companies, their net realisation will be Rs 1.5 per litre while 30 paise per litre will go to the government as taxes. Despite this hike, marketing margin on petrol would be nil for the oil marketing companies.

The note says that the continued depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar is the main reason for the latest price hike. In recent weeks, the rupee fell from Rs 47 to a dollar to Rs 49 and the OMCs were losing Rs 1.5 per litre on petrol sales.

While diesel, LPG and kerosene remain subsidised, with rupee at Rs 49 to a dollar and oil at $110 per barrel, it says diesel prices are marked at $100 per barrel, LPG at $76 per barrel and kerosene at $46 a barrel. It estimates OMCs are incurring under-recoveries of Rs 8.5 per litre on diesel, Rs 279 per cylinder on LPG and Rs 25 per litre on kerosene. Based on this, the subsidy burden for the financial year 2012 is estimated at $25.4 billion.

Chandigarh, November 7
There is some good news for the ruling Akali-BJP government in Punjab. Having drawn flak from all quarters for failing to create opportunities for attracting investment in Punjab, the state government finally has something to show off, with two super mega projects finally getting off the ground.

Both these super mega projects are integrated townships, and are coming up in Mohali district. While the project being developed by Shipra Estate Limited is coming up on the fringes of Zirakpur, the other project is being developed by Janta Land Promoters Limited (JLPL) in Mohali. While the first project will entail an investment of over Rs 2,000 crore, JLPL is investing Rs 1,200 crore in the project.

These promoters have reportedly started the ground work and soft launch of the projects has been done. Once the layout plans for these are approved, these projects will be launched before the end of this year. These are the first super mega projects to be launched in Punjab, ever since the Super Mega Mixed Use Integrated Project policy was announced by the government three years ago. As per this policy, the promoters need to put in an investment of over Rs 1,000 crore.

Talking to The Tribune here today, Parminder Sahgal, president of Shipra Estate Limited, said they had already done a soft launch for their project coming up near Zirakpur. “Our project is coming up on 1,000 acres, but it will be developed in phases. In the first phase, we will be developing 110 acres, where we intend having one million square feet of office space, a five-star hotel, hospital, school and 1.2 million square feet of residential area. We expect to spend Rs 800 crore for the construction work in the first phase itself. The formal launch of the project will be done by the end of this month,” he said.

The super mega mixed use integrated housing project by JLPL, too, will be formally launched by the end of this month. Kulwant Singh, Chairman and Managing Director, JLPL, informed The Tribune that they have already got the change in land use for their project coming up on 270 acres of land in Sectors 66A, 82 and 83 of Mohali. “The layout plans have to be approved by the government, after which we will launch the project. This project will have industrial sheds, an IT tower, three hotels, besides villas and multi-storey apartments,” he said. 

Our project is coming up on 1,000 acres, but it will be developed in phases. In the first phase, we will be developing 110 acres, where we intend to develop one million square feet of office space, a five-star hotel, hospital, school and 1.2 million square feet of residential area. We expect to spend Rs 800 crore for the construction work in the first phase itself. The formal launch of the project will be done by the end of this month

— Parminder Sahgal, president, Shipra Estate

New Delhi, November 7
Not wanting to get into a spate of litigations, the Department of Telecom (DoT) has decided to seek legal opinion before cancelling some of telecom licences issued on a 
first-come-first-served basis in 2008.

Telecom Minister Kapil Sibal had taken a strong view about the new telecom operators not launching their services within the stipulated time frame after getting the licences in 2008.

He had sought to cancel over 120 licences which were issued and led to one of the biggest scams in the country leading to the arrest of former Telecom Minister A. Raja and some of his other associates.

Country’s top audit body Comptroller and Auditor-General (CAG) while objecting to the system adopted to give out the licences had suggested a loss of up to Rs 1.76 lakh crore to the national exchequer.

Last year, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) had asked DoT to impose penalty and cancel as many as 65 new licences for not rolling out services within time-frame.

The Telecom Ministry has been issuing notices to firms on two issues - ineligibility to get licences and missing roll-out obligations within the stipulated time-frame.

"Our first goal is to send out the notices and then we will also seek the legal opinion from the law officers then try to put their replies and the legal opinion together to take a final action," the official added.

DoT has already issued 15 notices to new telecom companies out of total 65 recommended by TRAI. All of them are the part of 122 licences which were identified by TRAI with respect to missing rollout obligations and also ineligible to get a licence.

"We expect to send the notices any time now ... our goal would be to send them as soon as possible so that their replies come to us by end of December this year," the official said.

The cancellations pertain to licences issued in 2008 by former Telecom Minister A Raja, who was sacked last year when his ministry was accused of selling licences and spectrum cheaply, allegedly costing the government billions of dollars in revenue.

The official also said that some of these 15 cases would be common with those who were ineligible to get licences and separate notices have been sent to these player on both counts.

The DoT has already collected over Rs 300 crore as liquidated damages from various new operators for not rolling out services within stipulated time as per licence conditions.

According to the conditions, the operators have to cover 10 per cent of the district headquarters within first year of allotment of spectrum.

And after expiry of another 52 weeks, after claiming liquidated damages, the licences can be cancelled in case the services are not rolled out as per licence conditions. A final decision on this issue will be taken by DoT.

New Delhi, November 7
Global financial services major Barclays Capital today said India's economy is likely to register an annual growth rate of 7-8 per cent, below the country's full potential, in next 3-5 years.

"We expect India to register growth of 7-8 per cent over the next 3-5 years, depending on the global growth cycle and the absence of any large-scale weather aberrations. While this appears a decent growth rate, it is lower than India’s growth potential," Barclays Capital said 
in its issue of 'Emerging Markets Research'.

According to the financial services firm, India's growth pattern remains skewed towards the services sector and is heavily dependent on domestic consumption, which it said, raises the possibility that the imbalance between the services and other sectors may widen even further.

The services sector contributes to around 55 per cent of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

According to Barclays, over the next five years, infrastructure bottlenecks, normally blamed for holding the country’s growth back, are expected to ease in certain areas.

"We expect this to occur in the areas of financial, urban and human capital infrastructure, which are likely to be of greatest benefit to the services industry," it said.

The firm, however, added that absence of large-scale improvements in basic and rural infrastructure would mean that agriculture and manufacturing sectors are likely to continue to be hampered by weak productivity growth and capacity constraints.

While Barclays has projected 7-8 per cent annual average growth for India, the Planning Commission is looking at achieving 9 per cent annual growth during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2012-17).

The economy is expected to end the current 11th Plan (2007-12) with an average annual growth of 8.1 per cent, below the original estimate of 9 per cent.

"Whilst India's engagement with the global economy has increased, its leverage to global growth remains relatively low. Even in an environment of generally subdued global economic activity, we think India should broadly be able to remain on its own growth path if it can manage its domestic economy well," Barclays said.

It, however, warned that rise in commodity prices could dent India's relative competitiveness in exports.

The report termed the bottlenecks hindering the country's economic growth as "self-inflicted". "... the main approach in recent years has been to stoke demand through wage-generating programmes, rather than implement policies that could improve productivity and longer-term supply dynamics.

"The situation has been aggravated by a lack of political consensus and at times short-term policy measures designed to satisfy current needs over the future," Barclays said, adding that it does not foresee any major changes in next year or two. — PTI

New Delhi, November 7
Telecom regulator TRAI and service providers are now working together to find a solution to the problem of telemarketers using international websites to send pesky calls and SMSes - a menace which has resurfaced within weeks of a blanket ban on them.

Within a month of TRAI’s regulation curbing unsolicited calls and SMSes came out, telemarketers seem to have found a way of reaching mobile subscribers by using servers located outside the country to send such unwanted commercial communication.

According to the Cellular Operators Association of India's Director-General Rajan S Mathews, telemarketers have started sending messages from servers located outside India which does not fall under the purview of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI).

"TRAI is concerned, it is looking into the matter as to how it can curb this (the new method adopted by telemarketing companies). We do not want the customer to suffer and we as an industry are working with TRAI to find the best possible solution," Mathews said.

"It is difficult to monitor messages sent through servers outside, but we will find a way out, he added.

TRAI has already penalised 15 telemarketers till date and issued notices to 900 individuals for violating the norms.

Subscription of 90 people have also been disconnected.

TRAI’s regulation, which came into effect on September 27, says that if an unsolicited commercial communication (UCC) originates from a subscriber who is not registered with the regulator as a telemarketer, the service provider shall issue a disconnection notice to that subscriber.

It further says the phone shall be disconnected if the subscriber continues to send such communications.

In case of violation of regulation by registered telemarketers, Trai has recommended penalty ranging between Rs 25,000 to 2.5 lakh for a violation. — PTI 

Ludhiana, November 7
The World Bank has ranked India at 8th position in South-East Asia for starting any business whereas Afghanistan stands first, Sri Lanka second, Maldives third, Bhutan fourth, Bangladesh fifth, Pakistan sixth and Nepal at seventh position.

The above ranking has been given by the World Bank in its report on "Doing Business in India for 2012". The World Bank made these observations while taking into account 10 different parameters required for setting up an industry.

These parameters included starting a business (India ranked 8th), dealing with construction permits (India ranked 8th), getting electricity (India ranked second), registering property (India ranked 3rd), getting credit (India ranked first), protecting investors (India ranked third), paying taxes (India ranked 6th), trading across borders (India ranked third), enforcing contracts (India ranked 8th), resolving insolvency (India ranked 7th in South-East Asia).

Badish K. Jindal, president, Federation of Punjab Small Industries Associations, said the overall position of India in the world among 183 economies was 132. Though India had improved its ranking from 139 for 2011 to 132 for 2012, but it still lagged behind in the small economies such as Pakistan, which stands at 105 and Sri Lanka at 89."The worst ranking of India is in dealing with construction licences where India stands at 181 out of 183 economies, whereas in enforcing contracts (law-related issues) India ranked 182 in 183 economies.

As per the report, for dealing with the construction permits, it took average 227 days for taking grants from 34 different departments, said Jindal adding that these figures were really concerning and proved that future of doing business in India was not very safe. 

The top five Rank Country

First Afghanistan

Second Sri Lanka

Third Maldives

Fourth Bhutan

Fifth Bangladesh

New Delhi, November 7
Buoyed by a firming trend overseas and rising domestic demand, both gold and silver kicked off the week on a strong note today in the bullion market here.

While gold rose by Rs 225 to Rs 28,540 per 10 grams today to meet the rising demand for the ongoing marriage season, silver rose by Rs 200 to Rs 56,700 per kg on pick-up in demand among industrial units and coin-makers.

Trading sentiments bolstered, as gold in London rallied to a six-week high and climbed up by 1.1 per cent to $1,773.35 an ounce.

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's allies pressured him to step aside after contagion from the region's sovereign debt crisis pushed Italy's borrowing costs to euro-era records. It overshadowed Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's agreement to step down, weakening European equities and shifting investor sentiments to the precious metal.

Besides, retailers and jewellers buying for the ongoing marriage season further fuelled the uptrend.

In the domestic market here, the gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity shot up by Rs 225 each to Rs 28,540 and Rs 28,400 per 10 grams, respectively. Sovereigns rose by Rs 50 to Rs 22,250 per piece of eight grams. Silver ready recovered by Rs 200 to Rs 56,700 per kg, after losing Rs 600 in the previous session. Silver weekly- based delivery added Rs 50 to Rs 56,300 per kg. — PTI

New Delhi, November 7
After GAIL, IOC and BPCL, the Board of ONGC has approved acquisition of Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) stake in Petronet LNG Ltd. ADB had on August 23 offered to sell its 5.2 per cent stake in Petronet, in which the four state-owned oil and gas companies hold 12.5 per cent stake each, sources privy to the development said.

Gas utility GAIL and refiners Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum have already informed ADB of their decision to exercise their Right of First Purchase/Refusal on the multilateral lending agencies stake.

The ONGC Board on November 4 approved the share acquisition, the sources said, adding that the four state-owned firms would need government approval for buying ADB stake.

Gaz de France International (GDFI) holds 10 per cent in PLL and also has first right over ADB stake. In case the French energy giants too decides to exercise its right, ADB's 5.2 per cent stake will split between the five in proportion to their current shareholding. While Indian state firms would get 1.08 per cent or 81.25 lakh shares each, GDFI would be eligible to 0.867 per cent.

The price payable to ADB would the lower of either the average of the weekly high and low of the closing price of PLL during six months preceding the date of purchase, or the average of the weekly high and low of the closing price of PLL during the last two weeks preceding the date of purchase. — PTI

New Delhi, November 7
The average household communication expenditure is expected to touch Rs 34 trillion mark by the year 2015.

A report by Ernst and Young and Ficci says that the average household communication expenditure, which stood at Rs 17 trillion in 2005 will double to Rs 34 trillion by 2015.

This would mean that the handset manufacturers would have an ample growth potential in the country pushing the handset demands to 350 million a year by 2020.

The report says that with India emerging as the second largest wireless telecom market in the world after China the mobile handset is an all encompassing device and is no longer a luxury product.

It will play a pivotal role in accelerating growth and progress of different segments of the economy over the next decade.

The teledensity growth in the country, which reached 164.87 per cent by the end of August 2011 in the urban areas is backed by robust growth in the handset volumes, which stood at 150 million in 2010 and the country accounted for more than 10 per cent of the global handset shipments for the same period.

By 2020, the demand for handsets is projected to reach 350 million a year, with 505 million handsets estimated to be manufactured in the country during the same year.

The market value of the handset industry is expected to go up to Rs 1,032.5 billion from the present size of Rs 345 billion in the coming decade.

The untapped rural market is expected to provide handset players the next phase of growth. This market demands the low-end feature-rich phones, being mostly catered to by the home-grown handset vendors.

The number of 3G subscribers is expected to cross 300 million by 2020, fuelling the growth of 3G-enabled handsets. As a result of the mushrooming demand for handsets, the share of the replacement market will get augmented, which will in turn push up the average selling price of handsets in the country to Rs 2,950 by 2020 as compared to Rs 2,300 in 2010.

The report also said that the prevalent hypercompetitive market, with 15 players, is waiting to undergo a phase of consolidation, so as to infuse sustainable growth within the industry.

The draft of the National Telecom Policy 2011 clearly states that the intent is to help India emerge as the key manufacturer of handset equipment over the next decade.

Indicative efforts have been outlined to help achieve this target. Achieving this target will also help India to emerge as a key exporter for handsets and handset equipments across the globe, from a key importer today.

Export volumes in 2010 stood at 80 million handsets and were valued at Rs 153 billion. Imports on the other hand included 90 million handsets valued at Rs 258 billion.