The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Cheaper rice in Kerala
HC erred in rejecting EC’s plea

IT would be difficult for one to endorse the Kerala High Court’s rejection of the Election Commission’s plea against the state government’s decision to include fresh beneficiaries in its Rs 2-a-kg rice scheme. On the face of it, the court has erred in its judgement. After elections to the State Assembly were notified by the Commission, the model code of conduct has come into force and thus, the government is not expected to take any decision that would disturb the level-playing field among all political parties in the elections. The issue in question is not whether the government is competent to take a policy decision of this nature or the rationale behind the scheme but the very propriety of taking such a decision when the election process is on and the model code of conduct is in force. Clearly, the government’s decision to expand the scope and ambit of the rice scheme by including 40 lakh more beneficiaries is a brazen violation of the code of conduct. By doing so, the government sought to influence all the new beneficiaries in the run-up to the elections.

It is for the Election Commission to decide whether it should challenge the Kerala High Court’s decision and go in appeal to the Supreme Court. However, the state government’s contention that it has not violated the code of conduct because it had launched the scheme on February 23, much before the elections were notified, is unconvincing. More important, the High Court’s order that the Election Commission had no authority to halt the scheme is flawed. Under Article 324 of the Constitution, the Election Commission enjoys untrammeled powers to ensure free and fair elections. If High Courts start overturning every order of the Commission, as the Kerala High Court has done in this case, it will open the floodgates of corruption and elections would cease to be free and fair.

There is an urgent need to ensure the purity of elections. The government’s move to extend the ambit of a populist scheme, though aimed at larger public good, should not be construed as legitimate activity but as an attempt to woo the people for votes. Thus, the decision is an evil practice, if not a corrupt practice in the letter and spirit of the law. Since the dividing line between an evil and corrupt practice is very thin, the Kerala government ought to have refrained from taking the decision at this juncture.

A legend and a gentleman
Only Sachin could walk off without being given out

Cricket is a religion and Sachin Tendulkar is the presiding deity — acknowledged unanimously as one of the greatest players the world has ever seen. What is amazing is that his ethics and integrity are also of the same class as his game. He set yet another example of such sterling standards in the match against the West Indies in Chennai on Sunday when he walked off despite being given not out by umpire Steve Davis. The TV replays had also remained inconclusive. Such gestures may have been commonplace in the gentlemen’s game some decades ago but are a rarity in the present era when the credo is to come up trumps somehow, ethics be damned. What a magnificent sacrifice he made! After all, if he had stayed on, he might very well have scored a century of centuries. But he has always been above such narrow considerations. That is why he makes an ideal role model.

His gesture gathers even more sheen in the backdrop of the fact that others are ever willing to do quite the opposite. For instance, Australia captain Ricky Ponting very well knew that he had got a thick edge to Pakistan wicketkeeper Kamran Akmal on Saturday in Colombo but stood his ground till he was given out by a TV umpire’s review. Ponting may justify his decision by reasoning that the lucky reprieves that batsmen get from umpires even out the bad decisions that they are handed at other times, but holding one’s ground when one knows one is out does no credit to either the player or the game.

Yes, umpires do err at times. That is why the umpire decision review system has been put in place. There may be mistakes even when there is ample time to think through a decision with the help of TV footage. But in the end, it all boils down to the character of the players involved. Despite the mega-bucks that are at stake, they should not turn into mercenaries who conveniently give human values a go-by.

Thought for the Day

The wise person is not disheartened by failures. He tries again and again till he masters the art. Perseverance and determination are facilitators to the way of success. — The Bhagvad Gita

ARTICLE

The war in Libya
Military campaign will exacerbate suffering
by General V.P. Malik (retd)

IN March 2003, a multinational force led by the US had launched a military campaign “to disarm Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, to end Saddam Hussein’s alleged support for terrorism, and to free the Iraqi people.” That was sequel to a prolonged ‘no fly zones’ maintained by multinational forces over Iraq. The US had hoped that with economic sanctions, frequent air patrolling and strikes to impose ‘no flying zones’ and its funding of the Iraqi opposition groups would enable Saddam’s enemies within Iraq to overthrow him. That did not happen. It led to a full scale invasion of Iraq.

Eight years to the day, within hours of obtaining a mandate from the UN Security Council, another multinational force, led by France this time, has been launched to enforce a ‘no fly zone’ over Libya: the largest military intervention by Western powers ever since the Iraq war. According to French President Sarkozy, “it was the duty of France along with its partners to protect the civilian population from the murderous madness of a regime that has forfeited all claims to legitimacy.”

The military campaign in Iraq had resulted in its occupation followed by ‘regime change’ and then a prolonged Iraqi insurgency which very nearly exhausted the coalition partners and their multinational force. The US, in particular, paid a heavy political and military price for the intervention. It is too soon to predict how the military campaign in Libya will end. But the political aim and the military strategy followed so far raise several questions and possible lessons for political and military leaders in future.

Libya has a civil war in which poorly equipped and fractious rebel forces, mostly from its Eastern part, are opposing the better organised and equipped armed forces of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. It will be obvious to any one that the civil war would end only when there is a ‘regime change’ or when Gaddafi’s forces are able to crush the armed rebellion. President Sarkozy’s statement, though couched in more acceptable human rights rhetoric, makes it clear that the coalition partners’ main political aim is a ‘regime change’ in Libya.

Admiral Mullen, Chairman, US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has denied it. But his denial is most unconvincing. The Western powers hope that the ‘regime change’ will lead to establishment of a set up by Libya’s civilians “who want to choose their own destiny”, and thus favour political stability in North Africa.

While the couched political aim is clear, the military strategy adopted so far to achieve it gives rise to several issues. The coalition political leadership would have to be prepared to face them for the future direction and course of war.

First, it is not easy to impose a ‘no flying zone’ over a nation half the size of India. This will require substantial resources, 24/7 activity and a long duration. Will the coalition partners, already tired of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, be able to sustain it when the US has made it clear that it does not wish to be sucked into a Libyan civil war?

Secondly, imposition of a ‘no flying zone’ by itself cannot win a war or enable regime change. It will also require Libyan rebel forces to be organised, supported with military weapons and equipment, and trained to take on Gaddafi’s regular forces for a prolonged military campaign.

Thirdly, to make ‘no flying zone’ effective, it is necessary to insert Special Forces inside Libya to carry out reconnaissance, identify targets for attack, establish contact with rebel forces, and to create a post war political framework. It is believed that Special Forces from several Western powers are already inside Libya to do this work.

Fourthly, the multinational force assigned to impose the ‘no flying zone’ has to ensure its own security against enemy missile and other ground and air attacks. To achieve its own security and prevent Gaddafi’s forces from reaching rebels’ strongholds, the multinational force would have to attack his command and communication facilities, radar and missile bases and other military installations. Combat forces moving towards the rebel’s position would have to be destroyed. Such attacks, despite cruise missiles and other sophisticated targeting weapons and aids, are bound to result in substantial collateral damage including human lives.

Many political leaders who voted in favor of the ‘no flying zone’ resolution in the United Nations are surprised by the military action, which began with heavy pounding of Gaddafi’s palace, military and civil installations and his armed forces. Russia, China and many Arab nations have expressed serious concern over the aerial engagement of targets and collateral damage. The Arab League and African Union appear to be backtracking from their earlier stance. But shouldn’t they have known it better? Politically and diplomatically, the most interesting part is that both the interventionists as well as protesting nations are invoking the same rhetoric: of human rights and security of the Libyan people!

India, which abstained during the vote on the UN resolution, has protested strongly and called for an immediate halt to such attacks. The Indian response shows that the officials in the Ministry of External Affairs could neither perceive the military implications of a ‘no flying zone’ nor bothered to consult its military experts.

The military campaign is unlikely to be short unless Gaddafi decides to abdicate voluntarily or is killed along with his key supporters. His abdication and submission to the rebels and multinational force appears most unlikely at present. Even if the multinational force is able to destroy Gaddafi’s air force and some components of ground forces, that would not stop him from developing insurgency operations with his forces and tribal loyalists. Libya, then, would see a long drawn insurgency and counter-insurgency operations like in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Important questions that arise at this stage are: how far is the coalition prepared to fight Gaddafi’s forces and provide support to the rebel forces to enable a ‘regime change’, particularly in the face of Arab and some other nations’ opposition? How long will the campaign remain an air operation? Is any coalition partner prepared to send ground troops into Libya?

My hunch is that we shall soon see a change; either in the political aim or in the military strategy of the campaign. What is certain is that the military campaign launched with the ostensible political objective to “protect civilian population and end human suffering” will impose greater human suffering, not only in Libya but elsewhere too.

The writer is a former Chief of Army Staff

MIDDLE

Licensed to fly
by Amar Chandel

LADIES and gentlemen, welcome aboard Air India flight AI 420 from Indira Gandhi International Airport, New Delhi, to Heathrow Airport, London. This is your captain speaking.

Sorry for the slight delay in departure. We will be airborne as soon as we have finished reading this manual and learnt how to reverse the plane away from the parking bay.

The flight from Delhi to London will take approximately 10 hours, plus a few hours that we may require to locate the airport there. We will hit the tarmac five to six times before coming to a halt. You will not be charged anything extra for this pogo ride.

Please keep your seat belts fastened all through the journey because we are yet to master the technique we learnt at the correspondence school on how to keep the plane on an even keel. As a special gesture, there are 20 air-sickness bags in the pocket in front of your seat.

It is mandatory for every passenger to recite a prayer during takeoff and touchdown, because we fly on a wing and a prayer.

In conformity with international regulations, we would like to familiarise you with certain safety precautions. We will be cruising at an altitude not exceeding 2,000 ft because I happen to be scared of heights. Smoking and the use of electronic equipment is not permitted on this flight. Anyone using a cellphone, laptop or I-Pad to disseminate jokes about fake certificates of pilots is liable to be arrested for terrorist activities.

For your entertainment, two movies will be screened during the journey. Let me remind all passengers that you are not allowed to proceed to the exit doors midway through our films.

The progress of the journey undertaken and the time left to destination will be flashed regularly on your screens. If the dot does not move, please presume that we are flying in circles.

In case of a sudden drop in the cabin pressure, the plane will come down to the rooftop level automatically. Please do not wait to be provided with parachutes. Jump out straight away.

The weather in London is clear and sunny. The temperature there is 250 C. I am sorry, I have just been informed that it actually means 25 degrees centigrade.

As soon as you are airborne, you will be served light refreshments followed by dinner. For any special services like procuring genuine duty-free duplicate certificates, please feel free to press the buzzer.

Goodbye for now. Cabin crew, takeoff stations!

* * *

MAYDAY, MAYDAY, MAYDAY! Please brace yourself for your lives. Some idiot in the air traffic control tower has led us onto what must be the shortest runway in the world. It has finished as soon as we started and there is no way that we can take off from here. Pray, pray, pray! Harder, harder, harder!!!!

Friends, I am so sorry that we had by mistake taxied on the runway breadth-wise, rather than length-wise. Still, a catastrophe has been averted at the last minute due to your good karmas. Thank you for flying with us. We hope to serve you again

OPED-economy

WHAT STATE BUDGETS DON'T TELL
A budget is often unduly long, loaded with excessive data. It is supposed to set the state’s growth agenda. Going by the latest budgets, Haryana has done well, Himachal Pradesh is improving and there is hope, while Punjab remains a consistent non-performer
Nirmal Sandhu

THE budgets of Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh have avoided hiking taxes. Jammu and Kashmir has increased the tax on cigarettes and tobacco. Since tax hikes annoy voters, governments now resort to borrowings.

Capt Ajay Singh Yadav, Dr Upinderjit Kaur and Prem Kumar Dhumal,

Punjab leaders have wasted much of the Vidhan Sabha time fighting over the budget figures. Since a budget presents estimates, actual and projected figures do vary and only a professional body like the CAG (Comptroller and Auditor General) can point out irregularities and omissions.

On the 2009-10 budget the CAG report, tabled in the assembly a week before the Punjab budget, says that the budget estimates are not prepared with due care and there is need to review and streamline the system. This is the issue worth taking up.

According to the CAG, the actual revenue receipts were 15% less than those projected in the budget presented by the Akali Dal-BJP government in March, 2009. The actual tax revenue was much lower than the estimates. Manpreet Singh Badal was then the Finance Minister.

If the revenue was inflated, the expenditure was understated. The revenue deficit in the budget was mentioned as Rs 4,234 crore whereas actually it was Rs 5,251 crore. A Finance Minister can plead that he or she can never accurately assess future prospects. So there is no point in quibbling over figures. The broader picture needs to be studied.

Budgets in general are unduly long, badly written and come loaded with unwanted, excessive data and needless information. The Himachal budget, for instance, mentions details of the monkey menace, clerks’ promotions and congress grass.

If an economist finds it hard to make sense of a budget, what should one expect from an ordinary MLA? Conveniently, opposition legislators either stage walkouts or boycott the debate. The treasury benches too get involved in issues they are comfortable with.

A budget, like a bikini, hides some of the crucial things. No budget speaks about the cost to the exchequer of a chief minister, a deputy chief minister, a minister, a parliamentary secretary or an MLA. Just ask any finance minister what is the number of jobless in the state/country. How many jobs have been created or lost in the past one year? How many have left agriculture or moved from villages to cities? How many distressed farmers have committed suicide? No budget carries such information. The US jobless rate is watched and discussed worldwide.

Even if the Punjab, Haryana and Himachal budgets fail to take note of unemployment and its consequences, a survey of the Labour Bureau of Chandigarh is revealing. The unemployment rate in Punjab is the highest in the region at 10.5%, which is higher than the national average of 9.4%. It is followed by Haryana (8.7%), Himachal Pradesh (5.9%), Jammu and Kashmir (4.9%), Chandigarh (0.2%) and Delhi (0.8%).

Punjab and Haryana have focussed on education. Himachal cares for its employees. Financially, Haryana has done well, Himachal is making improvements and there is hope, while Punjab is a consistent laggard if compared to a progressive state like Gujarat.

The fiscal deficit (the gap between the state revenue and expenditure) is a key indicator of a state’s financial health. Haryana has a fiscal deficit of 2.6% of the GSDP, for Himachal it is 2.70% (reasonable in both cases) and for Punjab it is an outrageous 3.45%. This is despite Punjab raising cash by selling government land and the VAT pushing tax collections and also explains ministerial extravagance.

The Finance Minister has missed a chance to raise revenue by taxing the neo-rich like builders, transporters, hoteliers, mega mall owners and the liquor-mining mafia. In Punjab liquor shops are allotted by a draw of lot and house and plots are auctioned. There is no move to cut government expenditure and extravagance. Punjab politicians’ lavish lifestyle, foreign trips and VIP culture are partly responsible for driving crowds of Punjabis to Manpreet Singh Badal’s rallies. The rebel Badal is aware of public disgust on this issue.

Dr Upinderjit Kaur, a former economics professor, said in her budget speech in the assembly that “Punjab is now among (the) fastest growing states in the country”, and then in the same breath adds, “its growth rate is practically equal to (the) national average”. How can that be?

She says the state is “expected to grow at 7.78 per cent” in 2010-11 against the Planning Commission’s projection of 5.9 per cent during the 11th Plan period. This is because of the new accounts with 2004-05 as the base year. She also recalled Gujarat’s growth at 11.2%, Haryana’s 11% and Himachal Pradesh’s 9.5% -- all above Punjab’s growth rate.

If Punjab is growing so fast, as she claims, why is it that the state’s per capita income has slipped to number 8 in the country from the number one position not long ago?

The second most important factor about Punjab’s economy is its almost unmanageable debt. A state’s debt is seen in the context of its gross state domestic product (GSDP). Punjab’s debt-to-GSDP ratio is 30.43% in 2010-11 and it will be slightly higher at 30.43% in the next fiscal year.

Gujarat, for instance, will have a debt of Rs 1.29 lakh crore by the end of 2011-12, a jump of Rs 21,000 crore over the current year. It is much higher than Punjab’s Rs 77,585 crore projected for the same period. But Gujarat’s debt-to-GSDP ratio is 22 per cent. So it is not a serious problem.

Punjab’s debt figure excludes the loans taken by various boards and corporations which would become the government’s responsibility in case of a default.None of the three states under discussion has tried to privatise or dispense with loss-making state enterprises. Punjab has 62 boards and corporations, including Punjab Gau Seva Board, Punjab Parvasi Bhalai Board and the Potato Development Board, mostly floated to park idle politicians from the ruling party to check their nuisance, but burdening the exchequer and the taxpayer unnecessarily.

Haryana’s debt-to-GSDP ratio in comparison is still less at 18.96% in 2010-11 and it will move to 18.35% in the coming fiscal. Financially, Haryana is the strongest in the north-western region. It has the highest per capita income in the country after Goa. The state, hopes the Finance Minister, Capt Ajay Singh Yadav, will become revenue surplus in the next financial year.

Farmers in Haryana do not get free electricity. The minimum wages and wages paid under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MNAREGA) are the highest in the country. Prosperity is visible even if unevenly distributed.

By growing at 9 per cent in 2010-11 Himachal Pradesh, a tiny hill state with geographical constraints, has beaten Punjab. It is also ahead of Punjab in education and human development. Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal, who holds the Finance portfolio, underplayed the debt issue in his budget.

Ruling politicians often blame Punjab’s poor industrial performance on the tax holiday given to the hill states. Dr Upinderjit Kaur said in her budget speech that “274 industrial units have either shifted or set up their expansion units with an investment of Rs 3,675 crore in the neighbouring states having (the) privilege of fiscal concessions” between 2002 and 2008.

This is unlikely because Himachal has attracted mostly pharmaceutical units. Chief Minister Dhumal had also claimed that industries coming to his states were not from Punjab. Punjab units landing in Uttarakhand is a distant possibility. The FM should put on the government Web site a list of units and the places they have moved to if she wants to be believed.

On the other hand, ASSOCHAM has maintained that if Punjab is getting government and private investment less than half of Haryana it is because of corruption, administrative delays, official apathy, high land prices and locational disadvantage.

Punjab had managed its finances well until 1986-87. Its debt position was at its worst in 1994-95 and has been improving, albeit very slowly. The successive Congress and Akali-BJP governments have been responsible for the fiscal deterioration. As Finance Minister, Manpreet Badal had presented budgets in keeping with the party’s policies. When he tried to touch the root of Punjab’s troubles – high debt and liberal subsidies – he was expelled from the Cabinet. That shows how deep are so-called political compulsions to carry on with populism.