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Players’
due Modest
tightening |
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Brazil
creates history
Maharashtra’s
shame
Divali
dreams
Artillery and
aviation are force multipliers, giving commanders enhanced firepower
to strike in the enemy’s depth. The modernisation of these two vital
arms continues to hang fire, affecting the military’s overall combat
potential Revving
up the airborne force multiplier
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Modest tightening
High
food prices have led the RBI to hike its lending and borrowing rates by 25 basis points. Annual food inflation has eased to 13.75 per cent but it remains higher than the official forecast. The changes in the repo rate (at which the RBI lends to banks) and the reverse repo rate (at which it borrows from banks) are intended to soak liquidity from the system, thus suppressing demand. However, growing middle-class incomes are driving people to consume more food items like milk, eggs, fish and meat, thus pushing their prices and the RBI action is unlikely to have any major impact on the consumption pattern. Food inflation can be softened by increasing supply and removing glitches in the distribution system. Though this is the sixth rate hike this year, there is still enough money in the system because of which banks may not immediately increase the interest rates for home, auto and other consumer loans. Thus the demand for houses and cars may remain buoyant. Globally, while the developed world is keeping interest rates to the minimum possible levels to nurture a faltering recovery, the emerging markets are facing the problem of inflation. Australia has lifted the interest rates to a two-year high of 4.75 per cent. The US is likely to ease money supply further, thus invigorating dollar inflows and leading to a further appreciation of the rupee. India already faces a flood of dollars because of high yields in the currency and stock markets. Faced with a similar threat to their currencies, Brazil, Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea have resorted to capital controls. The RBI and the government are still undecided. A strong rupee lowers the cost of imports but hurts exports. If the RBI buys dollars to cool the rupee, it would raise money supply, thus pushing inflation. In the given difficult situation the RBI has taken a modest risk in favour of controlling price rise.
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Brazil creates history
Very
few of those watching closely the presidential election in Brazil doubted the victory of Dilma Rousseff. It is, therefore, not surprising that she has won around 56 per cent of the votes polled against her unpopular challenger, Jose Serra, who could manage only 44 per cent votes. The 62-year-old economist-turned-politician had the upper hand ever since the campaigning began for the polls to find a successor to the hugely popular incumbent President, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva. Her election as the next President of Brazil had become almost certain with President Lula da Silva giving his unqualified support to her. The Brazilians have made history by electing a woman to the most powerful position in the country. There are women rulers in other parts of the world, too, like Angela Merkel of Germany. But in Brazil a few years ago no one could think of a woman capturing power. Rousseff does not have to look elsewhere to make the Brazilian economy more robust. She will be better placed if she is guided by the experiments of President Lula da Silva. He became the darling of the masses with his innovative welfare policies, bringing millions of people out of the quagmire of poverty. It is mainly because of his visionary leadership that Brazil today is among the fastest growing economies of the world. It is good that she has promised to continue with the policies of the incumbent President. She has considerable vigour to lead her country to greater heights. The President-elect is a former guerrilla leader, who had to suffer in jail because of her stiff opposition to the dictatorial regime in her country before the advent of President Lula da Silva of the Brazilian Workers Party. But she no longer talks in the language of a guerrilla. Being in power is different from being outside it. She will have to concentrate on strengthening the economic base of her country. Most of Brazil’s 200 million people have enough purchasing power to ensure that the country remains on the road to success. The biggest challenge before her lies in proving true to the expectations of the people. Obviously, they will judge her every policy and programme by comparing these with the measures taken by President Lula da Silva.
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Education is when you read the fine print; experience is what you get when you don’t. — Pete Seeger
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Maharashtra’s shame Maharashtra’s image has touched a new low because of parochialism and political pusillanimity. The latest confirmation of this disturbing trend is the Shiv Sena’s success in taking out Rohinton Mistry’s “Such A Long Journey” from the Mumbai University syllabus. Following this “victory”, the book will now probably disappear from the book shops as well since the owners will not risk an attack on their premises by the Sainiks. What is distressing is that such acts of intimidation have the support of the state government as Chief Minister Ashok Chavan’s endorsement of the Sena’s charges against the book shows. Perhaps realizing that adequate protection against vandalism will not be available from the authorities, the Vice-Chancellor also meekly acquiesced in the Sena’s demand to withdraw the book. It will be futile, however, to bemoan this abject capitulation of the guardians of law and order and of the academics to the patently anarchic forces. If these anti-social elements can afford to flex their muscles, the reason is the long history of the retreat of the ruling parties before their lawlessness. There are several reasons why Maharashtra is currently the only state where aggressive sectarian parties can hold the authorities to ransom. Nowhere else do relatively small outfits with their visions confined to the boundaries of the state can continue to strut about for years without the fear of being called to account. The Sainiks can attack non-Maharashtrian taxi drivers and vegetable vendors with impunity, alter the scripts of films passed by the censor board, as in the case of Mani Ratnam’s “Bombay” and Karan Johar’s “Wake Up Sid”, to give only two examples, target shops selling Valentine’s Day cards and terrorise courting couples, and ensure that a scholarly book like James W. Laine’s biography of Shivaji and a highly readable work of fiction like “Such A Long Journey” cannot be taught in classrooms. A major reason why such organizations can thrive is the opportunism of the ruling parties. Both the Congress and the NCP are aware that neither the Shiv Sena nor the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena can come to power on its own in normal circumstances. Their chauvinistic base is too limited for them to have a wider appeal outside the urban lower middle class Marathis. The only time when the Shiv Sena was in the government was during the period of widespread communal disturbances in Maharashtra and elsewhere in the aftermath of the Babri Masjid demolition. Its ally at the time (and even now) is the BJP since it, too, shares the Sena’s anti-minority worldview. Their ascent to power was helped by the fact that the Congress was then at its weakest both at the Centre and in the state. Even then, the Shiv Sena-BJP’s stint in office was only for four years from 1995. A decade later, the Sena split when its chief Bal Thackeray’s nephew, Raj, formed the MNS. But the rupture hasn’t been a welcome development for the Sena-BJP team since the MNS’s targeting of Hindi-speaking people has discomfited the BJP, which is mainly a party of the Hindi belt. Another fallout from the division is that it has enabled the Congress to play an even more cynical game than before. The Congress has always found the Marathi ultra-nationalists useful for its divide-and-rule policy. For instance, the rise of the Sena from the mid-1960s enabled the Congress to deploy it to curb the influence of the communist trade unions. The strong-arm tactics of the Sainiks with the police looking the other way helped the Congress to undercut not only the Communists, but also the socialists although the latter had popular leaders like Madhu Dandavate and Mrinal Gore in their ranks. Similarly, by preventing the police from being too harsh on either the Sena or the MNS, the ruling parties have not only kept both afloat, but also ensured that each will cut into the other’s vote bank to the benefit of the Congress and the NCP. It is not difficult to understand, therefore, why the Chief Minister was so eager to support the Sena on Mistry’s book. Whatever the Congress leaders may say in New Delhi about their opposition to “censorship”, they are unlikely to deter Chavan in any way since sustaining both the Senas is a surefire recipe for the Congress’s electoral success. However, opportunism is not the only reason why the latter is following a line which cannot but be condemned by the intelligentsia. The Congress is also aware that although limited, the basic constituency of the two Senas cannot be ignored. For one, it comprises only the Marathis and, therefore, requires a certain amount of pampering. Even if the Senas appeal to their “worst” instincts, as Mistry has said, riding roughshod over them in the name of liberalism can be hurtful in electoral terms. For another, decrying parochialism will need a leader of high stature and popularity which the Congress does not have in Maharashtra at present. In fact, the state has not seen a leader capable of influencing the public mood for a long time. Y.B.Chavan, the first Chief Minister of Maharashtra when the state was formed in 1960 (he was also the last Chief Minister of the bilingual Bombay state), was probably the only one in recent years. His importance can be gauged from the fact that he was asked by Jawaharlal Nehru to replace V.K. Krishna Menon as the Defence Minister after the 1962 border conflict with China. After him, Sharad Pawar showed signs of developing into a major leader, but he never fulfilled his early promise. A manifestation of “all that is worst in human nature” was the partisan behaviour of the Mumbai police during the riots in 1992 when the references to the minorities in the wireless messages made one cringe in shame. In its report on the disturbances, the Srikrishna Commission said that “evidence before the commission indicates that the police personnel were found actively participating in the riots”. The commission, of course, was disbanded in January, 1996, by the Shiv Sena-BJP government for being “anti-Hindu, pro-Muslim and biased”, but it was resurrected by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee a few months later on the last day of his 13-day government. However, its report has never been fully implemented, confirming the belief that there is very little difference between a government of the Hindu Right and a “secular” one. The roots of Marathi parochialism can be traced to the Samyukta Maharashtra movement, which led to the division of the Bombay state into Maharashtra and Gujarat. One of its leaders was the Shiv Sena chief’s father, Prabodhankar Keshav Sitaram Thackeray. The driving force behind the movement was the Marathi disquiet about the dominance of the Gujaratis over Mumbai’s commercial scene. In a way, this targeting of a community has formed the basis of all sectarian agitations in the state, with the South Indians being harassed by the Shiv Sena in the 1960s and ’70s, then the Muslims during the Ramjanmabhoomi movement and, more recently, the North Indians, especially the Biharis. What this continuous antipathy towards outsiders indicates is a feeling of inferiority complex, which is camouflaged under the sons-of-the-soil theory. Yet, Maharashtra has flourished because of the migration from other states to Mumbai, the Maximum City, and Bollywood, which accommodates people from all regions, communities and religions. Now, even young women from the former Soviet Union and East Europe come to Mumbai to act mainly in the dance sequences in the films. However, by behaving like “kupmanduks” or frogs-in-the-well, the Sainiks and their unwise patrons in the government are doing a great disservice to the land of Tilak, Gokhale and
Ambedkar.
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Divali dreams Happy
Divali! May the tribe of gift-givers increase! May there be no glitches in giving and taking of gifts! So goes a story that on one Divali, a senior babu received, among other things, a dozen suit-lengths. Divali over, his wife sold them off at a local retail shop. The shop owner later discovered that two of the pieces had envelopes hidden therein containing
Rs 11000 each. He ‘dutifully’ returned the money to the better half of the bureaucrat. Then, there is the story of the occupants of two government houses situated cheek by jowl in a northern sector in Chandigarh. In one lived a lady, a school teacher, with her husband who though a gazetted officer, was in an inconsequential position. The neighbour was, however, a middle-level officer on a ‘powerful’ post. The school teacher watched, day in and day out, as the Diwali approached, wagons and cars pull up at the neighbour’s and unload cartons of gifts. One afternoon, as she returned from the school, she found, to her delight, a packet in her courtyard with the neighbour’s name written thereon. She kept it and later related, to all and sundry, in her evening walks on the lake, the story of the gifts galore to her neighbour and of the ‘solitary one’ to herself! One bureaucrat couple, however, on a Divali, disgusted of the receipt of repetitive items on previous occasions, decided to talk the matter over with their closest ‘well-wishers’ (read gift-givers), in advance, advising them of their ‘genuine’ requirements of a refrigerator, a microwave and other things. A not-so-practical officer, however, had warned his staff not to let in any person with a gift, on one Divali. He had, however, to relent when told that the father-in law of a dear colleague was at the gate. After the tea, the visitor held out a packet saying it contained sweets. The thickness of the packet, however, made the officer question him who admitted it had a liquor bottle, too. The packet was not accepted. The visitor walked off, vowing not to speak to the officer ever. He kept his word! Every Divali, governments and vigilance watchdogs throw a spanner in the celebrations and the festive mood by reminding the employees of the conduct rules which prohibit the receiving of the gifts! Woe be to them! Gifts on Divali cement the bond (between the giver and the taker), foster human relations, distribute wealth more ‘evenly’, make the stalled government machinery move and give way to bonhomie all around! So, yaron, aa gayee Divali, de do uphaar, le lo uphaar,70 hazar crore rupaiye ka ek aur karo
tyohaar!
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Artillery and aviation are force multipliers, giving commanders enhanced firepower to strike in the enemy’s depth. The modernisation of these two vital arms continues to hang fire, affecting the military’s overall combat potential Our approach to selection of guns has been in tune with most modern armies that are switching to 155mm caliber as the basic equipment. Standardisation of caliber has definite payoffs in terms of logistics to include the aspects of production, storage and transportation of ammunition. It allows flexibility and transfer of ammunition, especially in the operational area, from a neighbouring fire unit to another fire unit running out of ammunition, thus keeping the intensity of firepower delivery at the rates called for. Recognising the need for both standardisation and upgradation of equipment, the Ministry of Defence had approved the artillery modernisation plan. However, all efforts at procurement lie in tatters, now. The contracts worth approximately Rs 1,900 crore being pursued for approximately 2,000 pieces of 155 mm guns, have all but been dumped. Four variants of 155 mm guns were being sought, the largest segment of which was the towed variety comprising approximately 1,850 guns. The balance was constituted of ultra-lights howitzers for employment in mountainous terrain, tracked self-propelled guns for mechanised battle groups in the desert and wheeled self-propelled models. Almost every gun manufacturer globally, capable of manufacturing such sophisticated guns has been black listed by us on some or the other grounds. However, none of the cases has been taken to its logical conclusion. The fact of whom did they collude with and who were the officials who received the favours, has been the sole secret that seems to have been preserved, in a country where leaks do not pile up to the volumes of Wikileaks. They flow regularly as breaking news. Notwithstanding the setbacks that it has experienced, the artillery has had some substantial accretions in the past few years. The upgradation of fairly large numbers of 130mm guns to 155mm caliber has been undertaken satisfactorily. Our rocket artillery was limited to 122 mm Grad 40 barrel launchers for ages. The indigenous Pinaca and the Russian Smerch rocket systems have extended our reach to 40 and 90km, respectively. Both systems are capable of devastating firepower. We have also inducted the unarmed aerial vehicles of Israeli origin that serve the purposes of intelligence gathering, direction of own artillery fire as also damage assessment. The induction of better weapon locating radars has definitely given us an edge in locating enemy artillery. These systems are also capable of directing accurate fire of our guns to neutralise hostile guns. The artillery command and control systems and battlefield surveillance systems are also maturing, paving the way for greater synchronisation of artillery assets as also speedier and informed decision making. Induction of the Prithvi ballistic missile systems has been a shot in the arm in as far as long range engagement is concerned. The BrahMos will be a huge leap, once inducted. Being a cruise missile undertaking most of the flight path at very low altitudes, almost hugging the ground, these are difficult to detect by even the most technologically advanced armies. As such, their chances of surviving enemy countermeasures are definitely far superior. Our capability of long range target detection through the unarmed aerial vehicles has also enhanced considerably with the protracted endurance of these systems while in flight. Combined with bonuses that accrue from the maturing of the battlefield surveillance systems and artillery command, control and communication capabilities, fuller utilisation of artillery assets is definitely possible. However, the basic workhorse of the artillery remains a good gun and we have been most inept on that score. The Bofors scam continues to haunt both the political leadership and bureaucracy. The problem is compounded by our unwillingness to probe scams and punish those who continue to trade on the sides. In the final count it can be said that we have the requisite numbers when it comes to guns. Numbers by themselves, however, do not mean capability. Accepting any DRDO proposals at this stage for an indigenous 155 mm gun system will lead to greater delay and consequent gaping holes in defences. If required, the foreign military sales route needs can be adopted, even if we have to pay a premium, and thus ensure systemic corruption does not enfeeble our defence forces. The private sector needs to be brought into the core of the process and build its strengths for indigenisation, hereafter.
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Revving up the airborne force multiplier Plans
are formulated, future scenarios envisioned, policy papers drafted and issues debated, but on-ground implementation, more often then not, gets bogged down in turf battles, financial constraints, bureaucratic wrangles, indecisiveness and other detrimental factors so commonly associated with the procurement of weapons. This also seems to be the case with Army Aviation Corps (AAC), in existence for almost a quarter of a century., but still to take off as a full-fledged combat arm that can effectively provide the complete ambit of air support to ground formations or facilitate rapid troop redeployment within a tactical battle zone. Air power is the dominating force in the battlefield, not only being the eyes and ears of commanders, but also adding a devastating punch to formations' firepower and enhancing logistic capability. Army’s aviation units have the advantage of firepower, speed and flexibility, greatly enhancing the field formations' combat effectiveness and the ability to strike in the enemy's depth with little forewarning. The much-needed expansion and restructuring of the Corps been floundering over the years and the bulk of its assets - the Cheetah and Chetak helicopters -- are obsolete. Acquisition of 197 utility helicopters to replace the aging fleet, the contenders for which include Kamov, Eurocopter and Agusta-Westland, remains mired in technical and bureaucratic muddle. AAC was raised in 1986 with transfer of the Air Observation Posts from the Regiment of Artillery to form a new corps. It has now 35 Recce and Observation Flights forming 11 squadrons. The only contemporary machine in its inventory is the HAL-made Dhruv, with the French-origin Cheetah and Chetak being of 60s and 70s vintage. Some Cheetahs were upgraded to the Lancer configuration, giving them a marginally enhanced operational capability. It has no medium-lift helicopters or fixed-wing assets. Tasks envisioned for army aviation are onerous. These are engagement of fixed and mobile targets and fire support to ground forces, reconnaissance and observation, electronic and visual surveillance, provision of airborne command posts, monitoring nuclear, chemical and biological environment, casualty evacuation, communications and logistic support and airlift of troops. Most of the vital tasks, at present, are carried out by the air force, which maintains and operates attack as well as medium helicopters like Mi-25/35 and Mi-8/17. Some IAF Chetaks also have anti-armour capabilities. At the conceptual and operation levels, the IAF and AAC are vastly different. The IAF, perceiving itself as an emerging aerospace force through exploiting the realm of outer atmosphere for achieving military objectives, is a strategic force, trained and oriented for missions beyond borders and operations across the entire spectrum of conflict covering the total theatre(s) of war. On the other hand, AAC is concerned with tactical operations within limited geographical areas and is primarily intended as force-multipliers for field commanders and give them the desired punch and operational flexibility within their area of responsibility. AAC was also conceived to free air force assets to concentrate on achieving the larger strategic objectives. Given the size of the Army -- six operational commands, 13 corps, three armoured divisions, 32 infantry divisions, two artillery divisions and eight independent armoured brigades, ACC's strength of 200-odd helicopters is, as reiterated often by experts, grossly inadequate. Besides numbers, deficiencies AAC suffers from include lack of all-weather and night capability, absence of dedicated attack helicopters so vital for fire support, negligible tactical airlift capability and non-availability of electronic surveillance equipment. Further, the army's involvement in counter-insurgency, anti-terrorist operations and low-intensity conflict had placed added demands on the AAC, but with little wherewithal to meet them. Material and technical constraints notwithstanding, men of the ACC have performed commendably in all operational environments. Mid and long-term perspective plans to restructure and expand its aviation corps have been drawn up, which include raising aviation brigades at the command and corps level, with each strike formation having its own independent air assets for attack, surveillance and communications. A special operations squadron is also stated to be on the cards for dedicated air support to the Special Forces or extraordinary missions. Next is a electronic warfare flight to exploit the electromagnetic spectrum for battlefield superiority. Restructuring is to be backed with new acquisitions, including the proposed 197 utility helicopters, additional squadrons of Dhruvs, including its armed version, medium lift choppers like the Mi-17, tactical battle field support helicopters and, in the long run, light fixed wing aircraft for surveillance and communications. Improvements in its capabilities are focused at achieving all-weather day and night capability, precision strike capability, ability to rapidly induct and de-induct troops and enhancing logistic support capability in high altitude areas. Besides induction of new generation aircraft, it would also require a close look at issues like manpower, training, infrastructure, technical support and maintenance. As the security environment remains in a flux, the challenge before the AAC is two-fold - have the capability to execute its mandate in a fast-paced convectional war fought in a network centric environment in the back drop of a nuclear threat, and secondly, have the ability to support ground forces in low intensity war or anti-terrorist operations in a varied terrain including mountains, jungles and built-up areas. It would also not be out of place to mention that India's security interests are not just limited to the sub-continent, but encompass central Asia and the Indian Ocean Region and, if experts are to be believed, necessitate force projection and expeditionary operations that would require aerial assets. If the AAC, so vital for battlefield dominance, is to meet its envisioned charter then there must be a holistic approach and a concerted effort to restructure the force in consonance with the emerging security paradigm and suitably equip it with state-of-the art weapons and logistic platforms.
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T
At the moment we are saddled with guns of various calibers and indifferent vintage in our inventory. The Indian 105mm Field Gun and its lighter variant for the mountains are the basic field guns. The Russian 130mm guns are the backbone of our medium artillery, with the Swedish Bofors 155mm howitzers, complimenting them. We also have the 120mm mortars that need an upgrade. There is a smattering of other calibers that make little or no difference to the larger inventory.