The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Sino-Pak N-nexus
The coming NSG meeting must expose it

The proposed China-Pakistan civilian nuclear deal is a matter serious concern. The deal, under which China will set up two additional nuclear plants in Pakistan, will be in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), not signed by Pakistan. The NPT prohibits nuclear trade with the countries which are not signatories to the treaty. China’s argument that its commitment to supply the two nuclear reactors to Pakistan dates back to the period before 2004, when Beijing had not joined the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), is not convincing as the delivery of the controversial consignment will take place only now. The US rightly insists that the deal must be approved by the NSG — scheduled to meet next week — in the manner it gave its nod for the Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation agreement.

However, the required NSG approval of the Sino-Pak nuclear deal is unlikely to come about in view of the dubious track record of Pakistan. It is too well known that Pakistan has been deeply involved in the proliferation of nuclear weapon technology to various countries. Pakistan’s disgraced nuclear scientist A. Q. Khan virtually ran a nuclear mart when he provided all kinds of support to North Korea, Iran and Libya (no longer in the race) to acquire weapons of mass destruction. China, too, has been guilty of nuclear proliferation, though its controversial role has not been discussed as much as that of Pakistan. China’s role in Pakistan’s emergence as a nuclear-weapon state cannot be ignored. India’s hopes of better relations with China in the wake of cooperation between the two countries during last December’s climate change summit at Copenhagen have been shattered.

The China-Pakistan nuclear deal is being clinched at a time when the world is worried about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into the hands of the Taliban. The US and the rest of the world must prevent the deal from becoming a reality. It is learnt that the US may not go beyond expressing its concern over the alarming development as it expects some concessions from China over certain issues dear to Washington DC. If the US does not act decisively, the Obama administration’s claim that nuclear non-proliferation is one of its top priorities will prove to be hollow.

Prices get a push
High demand fuels inflation

While the food prices have remained at an acceptably high level, the prices of non-food and non-oil products have also shot up as a result of increased demand and fast economic growth. The economy is on a roll but those with uncertain means are bound to feel the heat. It gives the marginalised no relief if someone in the government blames price rise on a global trend. Food prices may cool if the monsoon proceeds normally. Besides, last year’s high base effect will ensure food inflation falls in the coming months from the present 16.74 per cent. Core inflation, based on the wholesale price index, has touched a 19-month high of 10.16 per cent.

Apart from increased pain for the poor, the double-digit inflation rate may drive the RBI to up the cash-reserve ratio and the repo rate at its meeting next month-end. This would see interest rates inch up. The RBI is trying to tighten monetary policy, which was loosened up in phases a couple of years ago to cope with the global meltdown. Since the euro zone woes have raised concerns about the global recovery, the government is sending signals to the RBI to refrain from taking any “excessive step”. Both Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Chief Economic Adviser Kaushik Basu have given the RBI enough hints to maintain the status quo.

The RBI has a tough call to take in balancing growth and inflation, no doubt, especially because the core inflation figure of 10.16 per cent is tentative and the actual number must be higher. For instance, the wholesale inflation figure forecast for March was 9.90 per cent when the actual turned out to be much higher at 11.04 per cent. Even if the RBI takes the government line and avoids a rate hike, there is little possibility of oil price decontrol as long as inflation stays at such unacceptable levels.

Thought for the Day

Drive out prejudices through the door, and they will return through the window. — Frederick the Great

ARTICLE

Recession over for India
But it’s recovery with caution
by Jayshree Sengupta

Except for double-digit food inflation and general inflation (measured by the Wholesale Price Index) around 9 per cent, the Indian economy seems to have come out of the global recession that hit the world with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in October 2008. For a large part of Europe, recession is still a reality with many countries going bankrupt and burdened with huge sovereign debts. Fiscal mismanagement in some of these countries has led to huge government spending cuts that have had severe repercussions on people’s incomes and jobs.

India by comparison has done relatively well and India’s GDP growth has picked up to 7.4 per cent (taking into account that of the last quarter) and industrial growth also is laudable at double digit --- 12.2 per cent. Exports are doing well again (recently at 36 per cent) and in general there is recovery and growth in the services and corporate sectors. All this does show that India has the kind of resilience some industrial countries do not have. It also shows that India’s social policies have been able to weather the worst aspects of the current downturn, and there has not been the kind of high unemployment experienced in the European countries. But, perhaps, it is too early to feel complacent about India’s relatively quick recovery and “business as usual” scenario. There ought to be caution against future problems that can crop up and ruin the scene.

One aspect of the recovery process has been that the service sector in India has not been much affected, and in 2009 its growth has been around 8 per cent. Both exports and industrial growth suffered but not the service sector. Since the service sector usually employs educated and English-speaking persons belonging to the middle classes, India has not faced the problem of slack consumer demand faced in the Western countries. India’s big stimulus package also helped, especially as it gave additional incomes to more than 18 million government employees in the form of Pay Commission rewards. For a short while, however, the aviation and hospitality sectors were adversely affected by the global downturn but, in general, the software and BPO services were not much affected.

The service sector employees’ buying power has been the mainstay for sustaining the demand for consumer goods and consumer durable industries, including the automobile industry. But now with the whole of Europe being more or less involved in the second economic crisis, the scene can change and any reduction in demand for services from India would affect the growth of this sector.

There can also be a further slowing down of the village economy in various parts of the country because of its dependence on agriculture. There are reports that agriculture is not going to grow at the expected 4 per cent (last year’s agricultural growth was only 0.2 per cent) as there may be another monsoon deficit. There are also long-standing problems in agriculture that need to be addressed like irrigation, availability of credit, good quality seeds, storage facility and marketing channels.

If agro-industries can be started successfully in villages, more employment can be generated in the rural areas, and per capita incomes would rise. This is important for eradicating malnutrition persisting in the countryside which could be because of lack of regular wage employment. India has the highest number of malnourished children in the world and 45 per cent of children below the age of 5 are malnourished. There is the fear of malnutrition rising with food prices going up, specially among farm workers.

Why food prices are going up despite all efforts by the government is hard to explain. If it is a matter of supply and demand mismatch, huge imports of foodgrains and sugar should have taken care of the situation. Also, there are 60 million tonnes of foodgrains lying with the Food Corporation of India — why is it that the minimum stocks requirements are being strictly maintained when the release of foodgrains could bring down the prices?

If food prices remain high, many families will cut back on their children’s educational requirements and on health care expenditure. Illnesses will not get treated on time and children’s books and educational aids will have to be curtailed. This is because in India 58 per cent of the household expenditure goes towards food as compared to less than 10 per cent in industrial countries. Food is the most important part of the household budget and people curtail buying non-essential industrial goods.

There could be a lagged effect of high food prices on demand for industrial goods. If the demand coming from agriculture for industrial goods slackens, industries may be left with huge inventories that will lead to the postponement of investment and lower industrial growth in the future.

Regarding finding jobs for people in the rural areas, the government’s resolve to expand the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme is an important step. The NREGS has been successful in the past as it reduced starvation for many and gave jobs to 4.4 crore workers. Hopefully, many more will benefit from the scheme, but it will not be enough to eradicate malnutrition. A more targeted scheme is needed. The National Rural Health Mission should also be able to deliver health services more efficiently to the rural population, but the government has to ward off corruption and mismanagement.

In all the Union budgets in the recent past, allocations for health and education have been regularly enhanced, but the execution of these schemes, which falls under the states’ domain, is far from satisfactory. Without proper health care, the productivity of workers will suffer. One of the main reasons for rural poverty is low productivity of workers.

There is also the Maoist problem, which is escalating on a daily basis. The Maoists get their recruits from those who are excluded from the government’s welfare schemes. The importance of the rural poverty alleviation schemes lies in their being able to deliver quality services that cater to the urgent needs of all poor areas, but this is usually not the case.

Thus, the rural schemes that are actually Centrally sponsored but whose delivery and implementation lie with the state governments will need more monitoring from the Central authorities or, better still, the civil society. It is also about time to think of rural industrialisation urgently because it is the rural areas that are the hotspots of insurgent activities.

Instead of emphasising on external relations, perhaps it is time to turn inwards to the remotest rural areas which have no TV coverage and remain isolated and invisible. Our leaders should visit these areas more frequently than taking trips abroad for attending conferences and having meetings, and find out for themselves the needs of the people and address them on an urgent basis. That is the only way to come out of recession completely and save many lives from disaster.

MIDDLE

Writer’s window
by Rajnish Wattas

On a visit to Mark Twain’s house in the US, I was especially keen to see his study, the place where all the brilliant humour and satire had been produced.

Rather surprisingly; the room originally designed for the purpose had been abandoned — it had too much view! Mark Twain found the garden views so enchanting that he would spend hours gazing out pulling at his pipe — very often drifting off to sleep! No wonder, he opted for the billiard room instead, where he could conveniently spread pages of his manuscripts on the large table.

Far away from the cold, mid-western landscapes of north America, another famous writer and a maestro of the tragi-comic genre, some years later had similar window problems. R.K. Narayan, the Malgudi Man, passionately built a new house in Mysore with an octagonal study and eight bay windows, but soon found the pastoral view of the Nandi hills from the windows so distracting that he could hardly get any work done. At other times, schoolboys and temple-goers kept plucking flowers from the frangipani tree planted in his garden; and he had to shoo them off with frantic shouts from the bay windows. The much cherished windows had to be curtained off.

But Ruskin Bond, the bard of Himalayas, too has a much celebrated window, which he loves. His tiny study on the first floor has a cute little opening which allows him commanding views of the Mussoorie hills and of the narrow road leading up from the Landour bazaar.

On my first visit to his house he had given me some directions; one of them being about a staircase painted in red leading to the cottage upstairs. When I reached the place, huffing and puffing after a steep climb, I managed to find the red staircase but it was ferociously ‘guarded’ by a pack of menacing pariah dogs! The moment I would go near the steps, they would snarl, gnawing their teeth, and come charging for me — petrifying me with their great “bond” for the master!

At long last, I heard a cheery, “Oh! Hullo …” from Ruskin Bond waving from the window above, his cherubic smiling face grinning with amusement, “no, no, they won’t say anything, come up.” I was a much relieved man.

Notwithstanding all such “window insights”, I designed a large one for my own study, to enjoy the garden views with a pine tree and bird house. The tree is always crowded with magpies, crows, squirrels; and occasionally lapwings, koels and sunbirds too.

The window is never shut, never mind, if nothing ever gets written. I can always turn to a book.

OPED

Crocodile tears for Bhopal
Govt sitting over compensation for victims
by Man Mohan

There is more than enough money in the government treasury, given by Union Carbide, to take care of about 20,000 victims of the Bhopal gas tragedy that struck on December 3, 1984. But, it seems, political will lacks the human touch to wipe their miseries.

BJP activists protest with black balloons against the gas leakage verdict in Bhopal on Thursday. — PTI

Over 15,000 people had reportedly died in this biggest industrial disaster of the world following the leak of toxic methyl isocyanate (MIC) gas from the Union Carbide plant.

Even 26 years after the shocking incident, the survivors and their families, who continue to suffer health damage from exposure and contaminants in drinking water and food, are running from pillar to post to get adequate compensation. Most of them get a pittance every month.

This is despite the fact that a corpus of $470 million (Rs 710 crore), set up in February 1989, has swelled substantially with interest accrued for over 21 years. Instead of distributing the huge principal amount among the families of the dead and surviving victims, and using it also for cleaning up Bhopal’s air and ground water pollution caused by the gas leakage, only a small portion of the interest amount is being used in an insignificant manner.

About 70 tonnes of poisonous residue is still required to be cleared as it has contaminated the soil and groundwater at Carbide’s pesticides plant (now owned by $45 billion American multinational Dow Chemicals Company) and penetrated vegetation and animal tissues in the surrounding area.

No one bothered about the victims till June 7, when 26 years after the tragedy, the trial of the accused, mostly former officials of the Union Carbide, concluded. The judgment attracted widespread criticism from social activists, political parties and survivors of the tragedy as the punishment was shockingly too low - two years of imprisonment with a fine of Rs 1 lakh under main Section 304-A (causing death by negligence) of the Indian Penal Code, and a little more under other IPC provisions.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on June 14 directed a Group of Ministers headed by Home Minister P. Chidambaram to assess the remedies available in the light of the court’s verdict. The dramatic arrest of the then Union Carbide chief Warren Anderson in Bhopal, a few days after the tragedy, and his subsequent escape from India under government protection the next day is now causing heavy embarrassment to the UPA government.

This is the second such GoM on the issue. The earlier one, during the previous UPA regime, was headed by Arjun Singh who, ironically, was the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister when the gas tragedy took place. The first GoM hardly held any meetings.

Pursuant to the settlement with the Union Carbide, as far back as on February 14-15, 1989, a sum of $470 million (Rs 710 crore) was deposited with the government. Notwithstanding the deposit of this amount to be paid as compensation to the victims a substantial part of the corpus still lies with the government treasury and has swelled, having accrued interest for over 21 years.

Meanwhile, a Supreme Court judgment delivered on September 13, 1996, has also come under attack from various political quarters asking why did the apex court ‘dilute’ the charges against the accused. On a petition moved by the accused, the Supreme Court had ‘amended’ the charges from Section 304 Part (II) (culpable homicide not amounting to murder) to Section 304-A (causing death by negligence).

A former Chief Justice of India, Mr Justice A. M. Ahmadi, has become a target for this 1996 judgment. In fact, Ahmadi was not alone responsible for this judgment. It was delivered by Mr Justice S. B. Majumdar sitting on the division bench with the CJI Ahmadi. Interestingly, in 1991, it was Ahmadi who had concurred with the then CJI, Mr Justice Rangnath Mishra, preventing the dropping of all criminal proceedings against Union Carbide.

By an order dated February 14-15, 1989, the Supreme Court had accepted the settlement arrived at between the government and Union Carbide for the total sum of $470 million. This order directed that all criminal proceedings against Union Carbide would stand withdrawn and no further criminal proceedings would be entertained.

The Supreme Court in a later judgment reported in (1991) 4 SCC 584 (per Ranganath Mishra, CJI) and Ahmadi concurring held that the decision to quash all criminal proceedings against Union Carbide and grant immunity from future prosecution was “bad and liable to be reviewed.” Only after this, the prosecution against Union Carbide was reopened and the guilty were prosecuted. But for this judgment Union Carbide or any of its officers would not have been prosecuted.

Ahmadi is also facing criticism from the BJP quarters for being appointed (after his retirement) as the chairman of the Bhopal Memorial Hospital Trust (BMHT) set up by the apex court to look after the welfare interests of the victims. It is being alleged that this amounted to a ‘conflict of interest’ because he had earlier as a Supreme Court Judge heard the Bhopal gas case related petitions.

Actually, the decision to appoint Ahmadi as the trust’s chairman was taken by a three judge bench of the Supreme Court on May 15, 1998. The Supreme Court had also considered the names of two former CJIs – Mr Justice P. N. Bhagwati and Mr Justice R. S. Pathak. “If there was a conflict of interest, would the apex court have appointed Ahmadi?” asked a senior official of the Supreme Court.

All parties were represented before the Supreme Court on May 15, 1998, and continued to appear till July 25, 2008. They included the NGOs representing the victims. No one objected to Ahmadi’s appointment. Ahmadi on July 14, 2008, and on June 20, 2009, wrote to the then CJI, Mr Justice K. G. Balakrishnan, requesting that he be relieved as BMHT’s chairmanship. But he was urged to continue by a judicial order of the Supreme Court.

Sympathising with the gas tragedy victims for being treated “like vegetables” by the politicians representing various governments at the Centre and Bhopal since 1984, a woman activist said: “The sudden concern in New Delhi now for them is like shedding crocodile tears.”

Shy and submissive no more
by Sajla Chawla

In the village where I live in Goa, one can see women carrying hay or fish in baskets on their heads. There is nothing unusual in that as I am sure rural India is full of such sights. What is different is that the women are in jeans or some such modern dress. My milkman is not a man. She is a girl who wears long comfortable shorts, comes in a car and is doing her Master’s degree.

These are all women evolving out of their stereotypes in society and consciously or unconsciously choosing hitherto new paths in their social journeys. All these women who go about their daily work, irrespective of being aware whether they are making any statement or not, are admirable women. And quite a pleasant surprise too.

Education has helped women build up their confidence. Globalisation and the media have helped even the ones who are not fortunate enough to be formally educated. Women are getting acquainted with other women all over the world and perhaps want to adapt their lifestyle and dress code, as it is in many ways, liberating. Women are asserting themselves in careers that were traditionally male domains. They often outshine men in academic performance. They are on TV, quite candid and articulate about their views and lives. They are in politics, at ease and in command. They are in the forces, intelligent and physically trained.

That demure, shy, submissive woman is not as common as she used to be. Today’s woman is doing all the things she can, not really with a sense of rebellion but because she is capable of doing them and knows it. Since women form half the population of this country and half the population of this country is at the basic subsistence level, we need to focus on “poor women”. Many of them have seen the lifestyle of the rich and the emancipated women, in the media or in reality, and thus want the playing field to be levelled so that they too can reach that status.

Any party like the BJP or Ram Sene Or Shiv Sena, which emphasises on traditional values and berates women for embracing modernity, is not going to be very favourably viewed by the modern Indian woman of any class. This woman, who has got enough exposure, knows that only the political party that has an agenda of development and takes concrete steps towards development will win her over. Traditional values maybe sacrosanct for most Indians and we are still a very traditional people, but that in no way stops us from having some modern views, ethics and lifestyle.

Women have often been transcending the limits set by society but this has been accompanied by a fair amount of guilt or uncertainty as women are trained from childhood to always keep in mind the society and “what people will think”. However, women today have gone a step further and have rejected that sense of apology or guilt and have made choices in marriage, career and social behaviour without feeling any mortifying self-doubt.

Many women I know are social drinkers and yet perform various religious rites like Karva Chauth with equal ease and real devotion. But why should the two things be mutually exclusive? Now when the modern woman talks of bungee jumping or of joining the police or goes to drink in a pub, she is merely doing it because she does not see any contradiction in it with regards to her ‘inner being’ or her ‘social self’. She is not on a binge of trigger-happy rebellion or erratic behaviour. She is merely exercising a rational choice, which education, social exposure and development have presented before her and is as correct or as fraudulent in that choice as men are and have been.

And all of this has been possible because India is a democratic and secular country and our women are not in purdah or living a half-hidden existence as many women in non-secular countries do. Thus being secular and non-communal is fundamental to the progress of women and Indian women are already aware of that and they would not like to go back to purdah, literal or metaphorical.

The writer is a free-lance journalist based in Goa

Inside Pakistan
Pro-Pak Taliban faction’s bid for power
by Syed Nooruzzaman

Efforts are on to bring the Taliban faction headed by Sirajuddin Haqqani to the negotiating table along with the Afghanistan government. Pakistan seems to be playing a key role in the move for rapprochement between the two sides. A June 16 Dawn report said that “preliminary contacts have been established” with the Haqqani faction’s leaders with a view to having a peace agreement with it.

The attempt to make them leave the path of insurgency is related to President Hamid Karzai’s idea of inducting the “good” Taliban into the government.

But why is Pakistan so much interested in reconciliation between the Afghanistan government and the Haqqani Taliban faction? According to Business Recorder, “Since the Haqqani group virtually controls five bordering provinces —- Khost, Paktia, Paktika, Logar and Ghazi —- its decision to join the peace and reconciliation process would improve the security situation in that area with a concomitant positive fallout in Pakistan’s adjacent areas, especially North Waziristan.”

Leaders of the Haqqani faction are believed to have close relations with the Pakistan government. Their entry into the Karzai government will help Islamabad protect its interests in Afghanistan. The Pakistan government is working feverishly on how to realise its dream of having the much-talked-about strategic depth in Afghanistan after the US and other foreign troops begin their pullout in July next year.

The path of the Haqqani faction’s entry into the Karzai government is free from the most difficult roadblock after the recent resignation of the all-powerful National Directorate of Security chief, Amrullah Saleh. The Haqqanis, who are Pashtun, hated Amrullah, a Tajik, as much as they do the Americans. They accused Amrullah of being involved in last year’s major missile attacks on the Haqqani network’s headquarters, leading to the killing of many family members of Moulvi Sirajuddin Haqqani.

According to Dawn, “it seems unlikely that the Haqqani network will engage in any manner of talks, even with an Afghan such as Hamid Karzai, without the blessings of Mullah Omar.”

The Haqqanis, it is believed, cannot go against the wishes of the main brain behind the Taliban extremist movement despite the fact that they have been operating almost independently all these years. If the Haqqani leadership is taken on board by the Karzai government that will amount to Mullah Omar also having an indirect entry into the Kabul regime. Will the US allow the surviving Taliban supreme leader to come back to power through the Haqqani network?

Zardari’s surprising move

President Asif Ali Zardari has asked all the sitting parliamentarians belonging to his party, the PPP, to submit a “loyalty affidavit” to him soon. This has led to speculation about what he has up his sleeve. Newspapers and TV channels have described these “affidavits” as resignation letters sought in the wake of the growing tension between the government and the judiciary.

Asif Ali Zardari

The Pakistan Supreme Court has taken a serious view of the government’s reluctance to initiate steps with regard to Mr Zardari’s controversial accounts in Swiss banks after the historic verdict on the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO).

As The News of June 18 says, “The possibility of a ‘conspiracy’ outside parliament has been raised, but there is no way of knowing whether this is a creation of the kind of paranoia we have seen so far in the past, or whether the President and his aides are aware of something being cooked up behind closed doors.”

The Pakistan National Assembly has completed only half of its term.