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Now or never Nargis strikes Safety comes last |
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Buy Indian, export more
Touch me not
News analysis West Asia’s war of the rockets Malawi’s farming revolution
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Now or never EVEN as both disappointed supporters and gleeful opponents pronounce the imminent death of the Indo-US nuke deal, Russia and the United States have gone ahead and signed a nuclear deal of their own, making possible a tremendous expansion in bilateral civilian nuclear trade. The Manmohan Singh government has already allowed the momentum on the deal to die, forced on the backfoot by a recalcitrant and hypocritical Left. Whatever be their disclaimers, the Left has ill-served the nation with its ideological opposition to the deal, on the ground that we will land ourselves in servitude. That the US does nothing of the sort is clear enough — it is as foolish as suggesting that China and, now, Russia, are in thrall of US power — but you cannot wake up a man who is pretending to sleep. The outrageous Left cocktail of dissimulation, self-serving platitudes and sheer cussedness being forced down the nation’s throat is matched by the timidity of the UPA government in not forcing through the deal. Witness for example, the current feeble pleading with the Left to allow the India-specific safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency, in return for assurances that it will not be used to push the deal through. Meanwhile, India’s existing nuclear reactors are running at half-capacity and they will continue to run only at half-capacity, simply because there is not enough uranium. Even with new mines, there will never be enough to implement India’s three-stage nuclear programme, which envisions making use of our vast thorium reserves. And so the circus of opposition to the deal goes on, with even the BJP crying foul on complete non-issues. While some of its own advisors who have worked closely in the national security area are comfortable with the parameters of the deal, the politicians do not have the vision to see that what is in the nation’s interest can also be in their own interest, if they have the intelligence and imagination to make it so. The right to test is not the issue. Strategic and ideological independence on the world stage is not the issue. We need to seize the moment to tie up a deal that can only be advantageous to us. It is still not too late.
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Nargis strikes DESPITE advance warning from India, Myanmar’s military rulers failed to respond quickly to save people from the wrath of cyclone Nargis that hit the country’s Irrawaddy delta last Saturday. As a result, almost the entire delta has been devastated with over 22,000 people killed and 41,000 missing. The cyclone, accompanied by 12-ft high tidal waves, has affected nearly 50 per cent of Myanmar’s 53 million population. The survivors have been left with no roof over their head and are living virtually without water, food and power supply even four days after the natural disaster hit them. The people of the region, known as the rice bowl of Myanmar, are now suffering more because of the style of functioning of the military junta. Cyclone survivors accuse the rulers of being slow in their response to meet the challenge posed by the tragedy. The government has called for international assistance in this hour of crisis, but it is not allowing enough freedom to such agencies to come to the rescue of the people. The military junta is highly suspicious of the personnel of those rushing from outside Myanmar with food, medicines and clothing. If it continues to put roadblocks on the way of international aid agencies, most of the survivors may die of diseases like cholera. The outbreak of water-born diseases is unavoidable in such circumstances. Fortunately for the people in distress, the Myanmar government quickly gave the green signal to two ships with relief and medical supplies from India. New Delhi has sent such aid by air too. It has expressed its readiness to provide any kind of assistance the people may require. The international community (read the US) has greater confidence in India’s capacity to help Myanmar in its relief and rehabilitation operations. India, therefore, must redouble its efforts to mitigate the suffering of the cyclone-hit people. It should not be seen lacking in any way to come up to the expectations of Myanmar and the rest of the world.
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Safety comes last MORE than 50 students of Class XII at Guru Arjun Dev Senior Secondary School of Pathankot are alive today merely because of their good fortune. Otherwise, when the roof of their classroom collapsed on Monday, their lives might very well have been snuffed out. One can well imagine the condition of the building whose roof collapses all of a sudden. Yet, the school had been functioning in the decrepit building for long. This is nothing but a criminal neglect on the part of the school management. To compound its guilt, the management reportedly locked the gates of the premises after the incident so that outsiders could not see what had happened. It did not even send all the injured students to hospital. What is the use of closing down the school after the horrifying incident? Its condition should have been known to the authorities of the education department. Those who are supposed to inspect the premises are as guilty as the management. It is a pity that the government shifts its responsibility to provide even school education to private institutions. The private sector schools are there mainly to make money. Even if the government has raised its hands that it cannot even arrange to educate its young citizens, it should at least ensure that basic standards of education and upkeep are maintained. But the casual attitude is all-pervasive. It’s not schools alone which are functioning in unsafe buildings. Many of the government offices are also located in precarious structures. For instance, the district employment office in Ferozepore is housed in such a building. Part of it even collapsed some time ago but even then the building was not abandoned. This is an open invitation to a tragedy. Barely two months ago, at least seven persons, including a seven-month-old girl and her six-year-old brother, were killed and scores of others injured when a four-storey under-construction building collapsed in the Seelampur area in Delhi. The authorities woke up only when the tragedy struck. They did not bother when the building was coming up without authorisation. How is it that such gross illegalities remain invisible to the official eye till things go horribly wrong?
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The story is just the spoiled child of art. — Henry James
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Buy Indian, export more EVERYONE is aware that apart from rising inflation, there is another problem in the Indian economy, which is of growing unemployment. Thousands of jobs have already been lost in the export sector during the last one year because of the appreciation of the rupee against the dollar by around 13 per cent, resulting in an erosion of India’s competitiveness against China and other countries. The cheap dollar has also led to a huge influx of imports, which have caused job losses. The Commerce Ministry took action against the hardening of the rupee by offering relief packages to exporters. Fortunately, due to the emerging global recession scenario, much of the foreign exchange inflow via the foreign institutional investors’ (FII) route has dried up and the rupee’s appreciation is on hold for sometime. It must be said in India’s favour that despite odds, the export sector has been doing quite well. For the period April-February 2008, exports were at $138.4 billion over $112.6 billion a year ago, registering a growth of 22.9 per cent. But Indian exports are likely to face a problem in the US because America’s consumer spending, which equalled 70 per cent of its GDP, has slowed down. The US absorbs 14.9 per cent of India’s total exports, and the GDP growth in the US is slated to be at only 1.5 per cent. All these years, there was a massive increase in consumption in the US and imports from India and the rest of the world to the US kept rising. But because of their overspending habits, the savings rate dipped and the US economy was in huge debt. The bursting of the real estate bubble (the subprime mortgage crisis) was one of the signs that things were going completely awry. To sustain their appetite for consumption, Americans borrowed more and spent more through credit cards, buying all the time - over the phone, via the Internet, in shopping malls and through mail-order stores. Recently, there has been a marked decline in their demand. But Indian exporters indeed have pulled up their socks in difficult times. They have tried to cut costs and increase efficiency, and industries using imported inputs have gained. Except that for some low import- intensive industries like textiles and clothing, problems have remained, resulting in job losses. For creating jobs in the export sector much more than relief packages are needed. It would be difficult to increase exports at a rapid pace in times of global slowdown, though diversification of markets and catering to specific export demand can help. India needs to export more in order to finance its growing imports. Much of the export revenue goes towards the import of crude oil. India has to import 70 per cent of its oil needs. Indeed, the hardening rupee and the cheap dollar have facilitated imports a great deal. The cumulative value of imports for the period April-February 2008 was $210.9 billion as against $161.9 billion last year, registering a growth of 30.21 per cent (India’s imports from China increased by 60 per cent). The growth rate of non-oil imports during April- February was higher by 32.83 per cent than the level in April-February 2007. As a result of rising imports, there has been a widening of India’s trade deficit, which stood at $75.4 billion in February. One can concede that the high import bill for oil is due to the rise in international oil prices but recently, there has been a huge increase in the volume also. But why is there such a big increase in non-oil imports? It would have been alright if the imports were mainly of machinery, aviation and transport equipment (capital goods and equipment). But no - a huge amount of consumer goods are also being imported, evident in shops all over Indian cities. India is entering a similar era of shopping mall mania like in the US, and people are becoming crazy buyers. It would have helped if they bought domestic goods, but like the Americans, Indians also are crazy about imported products. Big film stars are endorsing luxury products made in Europe and the US unabashedly and the urban elite society is always flaunting the latest purchases publicly. All the consumer goods that are piled high in shopping malls, including imported food products, are being lapped up by Indians like never before. In a global recession scenario, it would be advisable to keep imports low, especially crude oil. It would stall climate change also. India’s crude oil imports during April-February 2008 were at $66 billion, which is 26.8 per cent higher than the oil import bill of $52 billion in the corresponding period last year. India has also imported petroleum products (like naptha) but has emerged as a net exporter of petroleum products .This is because petroleum products have a high import intensity and have, therefore, experienced high export growth. Next to China, India seems to be gobbling up world petroleum resources. There seems to be no restraint on buying cars and other petrol-guzzling vehicles. Most rich families in metro cities own more than two cars. Often there is only one occupant in the car, which is not allowed even in rich countries like the US where car pools are actively encouraged. Pollution, delays due to traffic congestion and inadequate roads add to the daily chaos and the poor quality of life in the cities. Why can India not go for a serious energy conservation drive and alternate sources of energy in a big way? For restricting non-oil imports, there are few options open. All goods are going to be freely imported with a minimum tariff except sensitive items which are few in number and whose list has not yet been finalised. People themselves have to realise what they are doing to Indian producers and manufacturers when they are buying imported goods instead of Indian goods. In the US and the EU there is an active campaign to buy their own manufactures with slogans like “Buy British” and people do comply in order to save domestic jobs. Not so in India, where there is a huge status attached to imported goods. Besides, the machine-made manufactures, specially textiles, from abroad are disastrous for our own handloom industry. Similarly, our own indigenous metal, pottery and other handicraft industries are being threatened into extinction by the influx of cheap and glitzy products from abroad. Many of the village industries are dying for want of adequate demand and because of intense competition from imports. Rural unemployment is high but somehow it is not reflected in official statistics. (The total unemployment rate for 2004-05 was 8.2 per cent.) In villages, most people are doing something but are not fully occupied and they do not call themselves “unemployed”. The crisis of village joblessness is evident in the heavy migratory flows into the big cities everyday. Indians buying more foreign merchandise and food would definitely add to the problem of joblessness. The only good thing about cheap imports is that they keep inflation down as was the case in the US, but it does precious little to protect
jobs.
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Touch me not IT’S funny how we react to contagious diseases. I mean tuberculosis, chicken pox, measles, shingles, etc...I’m down with the latter at present, so this is first-hand experience speaking. In the beginning, you are in so much pain and discomfort you really don’t care about anything but beating the pain. Besides, you are thankful you don’t have visitors while you are looking undoubtedly at your worst — the real you, without any makeup to cover the dark shadows under the eyes and worse! However, it is not that there are queues outside the door. Apart from really close family and a few friends, most people behave as if the infection may travel down sound waves and phone wires! Admittedly, I have a lot to be grateful for. I am in my comfortable home and my husband is trying so hard to say and do the right things that I am glad he is not around most of the time, as the strain is likely to be too much! I have not told him how much I look forward to the doorbell ringing to announce his arrival home after work because a swollen head may cause additional stress! Also, I cannot thank our two faithful housekeepers enough — they don’t seem to think about their own safety hazards and are around all the time. I get calls and SMSs from “nears and dears” and have been catching up on many books, hitherto unread. My good friend, the email, is also around to help me keep in touch. I have been working too, on a newsletter so that is creative and stimulating. Very importantly, it’s been a period of learning. For a person like me, who used to think a large circle of people have a corridor in their mental and emotional space with the label “R. Sen”, this was clearly a good time to realise that the oft-quoted cliché is the one to start going by — out of sight is out of mind! Once I was able to digest this, I found the aftertaste was not that bad at all! The facts about contagious diseases are fairly well known — we usually pick them up from unknown sources as we go about our daily chores, and when there is no visible evidence of the disease. Also, the irony is that the most infectious stage is when one is feeling a little “achey, coldy and miserable” but is up and about — inadvertently spreading germs. However, if people start taking medical leave for colds, offices and schools would have no staff left! Further, these diseases “catch” us when we fail to take good care of ourselves, so apart from rest and recuperation, there is also scope for reflection about priorities and other such soul-enhancing subjects. Nevertheless, the quarantine period — in this case, three weeks — is long and although I valiantly try to cover up, the reality is that being down with a reputedly contagious disease is rather an isolating experience. An alarming question keeps plaguing me — one I don’t like to face while I know that hopefully, for now, my illness is temporary, and in a week or so, the quarantine will be over and it should be all fine. I can’t help asking myself — what of people for who there isn’t a “get well deadline”, for whom in the quarantine period does not end? How isolating the experience must be when people avoid contact with them — literally and figuratively — and they cannot see the end of the tunnel nor a friendly face on the other
side.
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News analysis DEHRA DUN – Smoke hangs thick over Uttarakhand from the plains of the terai to the mountain ranges of entire Garhwal and Kumoan, from raging forest fires. With summer heat yet to reach its peak, the state administration and forest officials can do nothing more to stop the spread of fire than to pray for the rains. The light showers last week in the hills proved inadequate to douse the smouldering forests. A large number of fire incidents till May 5, 2008 have severely damaged a couple of thousand hectares of forests in the state alone. There are reports of forest fires in neighbouring Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir also. Forests in India have a high degree of susceptibility to forest fires and these fires have already destroyed precious forest wealth worth several hundred crores of rupees and caused incalculable harm to the flora and fauna of the entire affected regions. The damage from fires is much more pronounced in the mountainous northern region as the difficult hilly topography is invariably a hindrance to fire mitigation and control efforts. It has therefore been observed in the past that, once started, the fires assume mammoth proportions causing extensive damage to biological wealth. Due to heavy local dependence upon forests, the socio-economic impacts of fires are also substantial for the communities residing in and around these forest areas. Major forest fires are occurring in the hills after every three to four years because of the accumulation of leaves and litter in the forest. The most devastating fires in Uttarakhand hills and Himachal Pradesh in 1995 destroyed an area of 6,77,700 hectares. According to the report of a government committee the quantifiable timber loss alone was around Rs. 17.50 crore. Losses in the form of timber increment, soil erosion, loss of employment, drying up of water sources and loss to bio-diversity were not calculated. The devastating forest fires in summer of 1999 destroyed nearly 50,000 hectares of forests in Uttarakhand hills. Besides the precious trees, the forest fires destroy the existing vegetation, killing plants, insects, small animals and reptiles so essential for the eco-system. Over the years, these forest fires are one of the major reasons for the degradation of the forests. Interestingly, with continued and intensive dependence of humans on forests, in the light of shrinking forest areas, the incidents of forest fires are increasing. While on one hand, humans need forests, on the other, fires are occurring more frequently today than at any time in the past. According to researchers and scientists, about 90 per cent of the forest fires in India are started by humans. Villagers living on the periphery of the forests have been blamed for setting forests on fire for getting surface grasses at the onset of the monsoons. Fires of different types affect annually about 1.45 million hectares of forests, while forest protection division of Union Ministry of Environment and Forests puts this figure at 3.73 million hectares (4.9% of the total forest cover). Keeping in view the cost of regeneration, it leads to a financial loss of several hundred crores annually. This estimate does not include the losses suffered in the form of loss of biodiversity, nutrient and soil moisture and other intangibles. Studies by forest researchers revealed that annual fires were reported to be most frequent in Chir forests. In fact, it seems that human beings cause a majority of the fires in Chir pine forests intentionally or unintentionally to get better grass for their livestock. However, environmentalists believe that the entire system of forest management needs a revamp. The people who are stakeholders in the forests and live on the periphery are in constant struggle with forest officials and have lost the sense of belongingness with the forests. The most effective measures adopted till date by forest department personnel in India are creating “forest fire line” by controlled burning of litter around a single compartment of forest. This ensures that fires from other areas do not spread. Without active participation of the people living in the periphery of the forests, these measures are proving inadequate. People from all ages, from school kids to older people, should be involved in the protection of the precarious forest wealth. Awareness generation amongst the local communities pertaining to the role and importance of forests in their day-to-day lives should be the most important step towards preventing the occurrence of intentional forest fires. The creation of awareness about forest protection would make the local communities much more pro-active towards protecting the forests from fires. By starting ‘Van Panchayats’ and involving ‘Mahila Mangal Dals’ of hill women Uttarakhand has given a start to the process. But better forest management techniques with latest scientific knowledge, techniques and equipment is needed to avert such environment disasters occurring frequently. More scientific and technological interventions are needed to suggest better use of leaves and forest litter, particularly pine needles, by the local communities, that can generate income and make them stakeholders in the forest. The state governments can also formulate legislation assigning legal duties to the local communities about prevention and control of fires. Modern fire control equipment and vehicles, better training of forest staff and scientific early detection of forest fires by use of satellite and timely action could help save precious national wealth.
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West Asia’s war of the rockets LAST Tuesday, Israel faced the fallout from a Palestinian family of five perishing in the Gaza Strip during an Israeli strike against militants firing rockets at an Israeli town. On Wednesday, the Bush administration woke to a front-page picture in The Washington Post of a 2-year-old Iraqi boy killed in a US airstrike in Baghdad aimed at Shiite militiamen launching rockets at the city’s Green Zone. The similarity of these tragic and politically costly episodes was anything but a coincidence. For months now, Israel has been mired in an unwinnable war against Hamas and allied militias in Gaza, who fire missiles at civilians in Israel and then hide among their own women and children, ensuring that retaliatory fire will produce innocent victims for the Middle East’s innumerable satellite television networks. A growing number of the militiamen have been to Iran for training, and some of the missiles they launch are Iranian-made. Their objective is obvious: to exhaust Israelis with an endless war of attrition while making it impossible for Israel’s government to reach a political settlement with the more moderate Palestinian administration in the West Bank. Now US forces have been drawn into a similar morass in Sadr City, the Shiite neighborhood of 2 million ruled by Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army. As Iranian-made rockets rain down on the Green Zone and nearby neighborhoods, US forces attempt, so far in vain, to stop the fire by attacking Shiite militants from the ground and the air. Hundreds of people have been killed, filling the satellite airwaves and handing a new argument to the “this war is lost” lobby in Washington. It’s not hard to grasp the common strategy at work here or to intuit what interest it serves. The rockets fired from Gaza and from Sadr City are two prongs of an offensive aimed at forcing the United States out of Iraq, putting Israel on the defensive - and leaving Iran as the region’s preeminent power. The third front, in Lebanon, is also the model. There the Hezbollah militia has armed itself with thousands of rockets and long-range missiles in preparation for a repeat of its 2006 war with Israel, while making Tehran a power in domestic Lebanese politics. The fourth front is in Afghanistan, where Taliban militiamen near the Iranian border now come armed with Iranian-made weapons. Countering the strategic Iranian challenge – which also includes its unimpeded nuclear program – is likely to preoccupy US policy in the Middle East for years. But the more immediate problem for both the United States and Israel is how to end the wars of the rockets. As Israel has demonstrated over the past 18 months, selective strikes against rocket crews by aircraft or special forces can inflict a lot of casualties – but don’t stop the launchings. As US forces have shown in Baghdad, sending substantial ground forces into Sadr City (or Gaza), building walls and fighting for control of the streets doesn’t bring quick relief, either. Israel has so far avoided a similar offensive in Gaza in part because of another problem, the lack of an exit strategy. Even if the streets can be cleared of militants, who will ensure that no rockets are fired after the invading forces depart? Neither Iraqi nor Palestinian government forces seem up to the job. Both Israelis and Americans are tantalized by the prospect of a political solution. With US encouragement, the Iraqi government is negotiating with both Sadr and Iran; Israel is talking to Hamas through Egypt. Both militias say they would be happy to observe a cease-fire in exchange for political concessions. (Al-Sadr has already announced one, though the rocket launches continue.) But neither will agree to disarm. This is again the model of Hezbollah, which participates in the Lebanese parliament but refuses to give up its weapons, giving it the ability to wage war at any time of its – or Tehran’s – choosing. Hamas will not surrender its option to bleed Israel, nor will the Mahdi Army its means to harry the American enemy. Some think all this can be settled by a direct approach to Tehran by the United States and a grand bargain that would stop the flow of weapons and trainers to Baghdad, Gaza, Lebanon and Afghanistan, along with the nuclear weapons program. In exchange for what? Never mind: The next president, especially if a Democrat, will probably try it. But let’s hope Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain also are thinking about a grimmer possibility: that Iran believes that its offensive is succeeding and that its goals are within reach, and that it has no intention of stopping. As long as neither Israeli nor US commanders can find a way to win the war of the rockets, that’s likely to be the case.
By arrangement with LA Times-Washington Post
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Malawi’s farming revolution
A green revolution taking place in the fields of Malawi in Africa has, in three years, turned a nation that was once reliant on international aid to feed half its population into a food exporter. In doing so, it has set an example for other developing countries struggling to feed themselves. But it has done it all against the express wishes of Britain, the United States and the World Bank – its largest donors. Malawi suffered a catastrophic drought in 2005. The World Food Programme estimated that five million people – out of a population of 12 million – needed food aid and many villages reported people dying of starvation. A new government, led by Bingu wa Mutharika, believed the problem was straightforward. Farmers were using seeds that were highly susceptible to disease and weevils, and too few were using fertiliser. If farmers could afford high-yield maize seeds and fertiliser, the government argued, they would be able to grow enough food. At a cost of £ 30m, the government launched a subsidisation scheme. With a state coupon, the price of a bag of fertiliser fell from 6,500 kwacha (£ 23) to 900, while a 2kg bag of hybrid maize seed dropped from 600 kwacha to 30. Malawi’s donors refused to fund the programme, arguing that subsidising farmers would not bring the desired results. They were wrong. Malawi needs about 2.2 million tonnes of maize a year to feed itself and from a low of 1.2 million tonnes in 2005, national maize production rose to 3.2 million tonnes in 2007, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. The results are plain to see in the village of Chiseka, 50 miles south of the capital Lilongwe, where the village chief Herbert Kamponda remembers the 30 people who perished during the drought. Most died of starvation but a few were killed in desperate battles with their neighbours over the last remaining crops. “People were so hungry they would do anything,” he said. All that has changed. Tito Jestala, one of the village’s farmers, proudly shows off his maize store, filled to the top with corn cobs. One acre produced 250kg of maize three years ago – now it is producing up to 750kg. The scheme has its critics, who argue that agricultural subsidies can be ineffective as they provide the same benefits to rich farmers that could afford the full price, and that bigger improvements could have been achieved if the money was invested in agricultural research. Critics also say that Malawi’s agricultural output has been boosted by good rainy seasons rather than the subsidy scheme. Idrissa Mwale, the subsidy coordinator at Malawi’s ministry of agriculture, countered that there had been good rainfall in the past and still bad harvests. One potential problem is the rising cost of fertiliser, caused by soaring oil prices. However, international donors, after early scepticism, now support the scheme. With many developing countries in the grip of a global food crisis, Malawi is now urging its neighbours to follow its example.
By arrangement with The Independent
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