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EDITORIALS

Buddha’s wisdom
Let’s have some common minimum good sense
F
OR CPM general secretary Prakash Karat, the common minimum good of the world will be achieved if “American hegemony”, also known as “neo-imperialism”, is vanquished, preferably by killing the Indo-US nuclear deal in the womb. 

Caste matters
Provide everyone a level-playing field

N
OTHING is worse than the caste system. Its influence on the Indian society is such that even religions, supposedly egalitarian, are not free from its pernicious influence. There is no point in turning a blind eye to its prevalence in our eagerness to usher in a casteless society.


EARLIER STORIES

Lynching and after
September 18, 2007
Captain’s choice
September 17, 2007
Tryst with nuclear destiny
September 16, 2007
Republic of Bihar
September 15, 2007
Bridge with people
September 14, 2007
Purging the police
September 13, 2007
For people’s sake
September 12, 2007
Now it’s Virk’s turn
September 11, 2007
Stinging frameup
September 10, 2007
Let’s learn from Bihar
September 9, 2007
Exercise good sense
September 8, 2007


Vistas of change
Monopoly gets a rap on the knuckles
T
HE European Union's Court of First Instance has rejected the Microsoft Corporation’s appeal against an anti-trust judgement that had fined the company a record Euro 497 million in 2004.
ARTICLE

Law for public servants
Inadequate to promote good governance
by Dharam Vir
T
HE government has drafted what is called the Public Services Bill, 2006, with a view to providing a statutory basis for the regulation of public services as envisaged in Article 309 of the Constitution. Currently, rules like the Civil Services Conduct Rules; the Control, Classification and Appeal Rules; the Leave Rules; the Pension Rules; the Recruitment Rules; etc, applicable to public servants (the expression used therein is government servants) have the sanction of law by virtue of a proviso to the Article referred to.

MIDDLE

Present-day ostriches
by I. M. Soni

A bunch of beauties comes to an ice-cream parlour in the university, buys cones, goes down the corridor of the market, giggling. They think nothing of their action of licking cones in public.

OPED

Mass discontent in Pakistan may lead to radical changes
by Sushant Sareen

C
learly
, the prospect of Nawaz Sharif’s return terrified General Pervez Musharraf so much that he preferred to defy the Supreme Court of Pakistan and create a grave constitutional crisis in the country rather than face the political challenge that Nawaz Sharif posed to his tottering regime. By sending Nawaz Sharif into exile, General Musharraf has, at least for the foreseeable future, warded off the immediate threat he perceived from the former prime minister and his most implacable political opponent.

The Kite Runner runs into trouble
by Claire Soares
T
HE Kite Runner has run into trouble. The film version of a best-selling book that has put Afghanistan on the literary map will not be screened in Kabul after controversy erupted over a pivotal rape scene.

US-China cooperation can counter OPEC
by Sebastian Mallaby
O
PEC now appears more menacing than it has in a long time. For an administration that made energy security a priority right from its first months, this is a humiliation. At its meeting a year ago, OPEC resolved to restrain output and force higher prices on consumers. That muscle-flexing worked: It reinforced the market dynamics that have brought prices to $80 a barrel. 

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Buddha’s wisdom
Let’s have some common minimum good sense

FOR CPM general secretary Prakash Karat, the common minimum good of the world will be achieved if “American hegemony”, also known as “neo-imperialism”, is vanquished, preferably by killing the Indo-US nuclear deal in the womb. That he is less clear about whether nuclear power is good for the world and India, is also problematic —sometimes he and his party give the impression that nuclear power is fine if it comes from non-Western sources, but terrible if it comes from America. Add to this the fact that Mr Karat’s common minimum programme also requires frequent attacks on the Prime Minister — at least according to Mr Kapil Sibal — and things get really complicated.

It is thus refreshing to again find West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee injecting his now familiar dose of pragmatism and ideological openness into the whole debate, by asserting a simple truth — “we just cannot avoid nuclear power.” It would have been too much to expect him to advise against Karat and Co’s blind anti-Americanism, but his message is more than just an endorsement of a strategy to diversify our energy sources. Given the intensity of the turmoil raging in the Capital, caused by Mr Karat’s threat of dire consequences if the UPA went ahead on the deal, his words may well indicate a desire to reduce the stridency of the Left opposition.

The government, meanwhile, in a reply to a Left note on the issue, has asserted the superiority of the 123 Agreement to a similar one in existence with China, a P-5 country and a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. The reply points to the dedicated reprocessing facility and the fuel supply guarantee as highlights of the agreement. While endorsing the deal, IAEA chief Mohammed El-Baradei has indicated that the IAEA is ready and waiting to begin the necessary talks. The US, on its part, is also urging speedy action. The Left would do well to tone down its opposition, and not provoke a crisis in the government. As for the UPA, it should boldly go ahead with discussions with the IAEA.

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Caste matters
Provide everyone a level-playing field

NOTHING is worse than the caste system. Its influence on the Indian society is such that even religions, supposedly egalitarian, are not free from its pernicious influence. There is no point in turning a blind eye to its prevalence in our eagerness to usher in a casteless society. The policy-makers thought otherwise when they decided to delete all questions about caste, except with regard to the Scheduled Castes and the Scheduled Tribes, while conducting successive decennial censuses. Far from doing any service, the ostrich-like approach landed the state in a situation in which it had no idea how many castes existed while taking such momentous decisions as introducing reservation for the other backward classes. The last caste-based census was in the thirties.

The Supreme Court is unable to clear the proposed Mandal-based reservation for admissions to the Indian Institutes of Technology and the Indian Institutes of Management because the government has no clear idea of the caste-wise break-up of the population. In other words, caste-based enumeration has become a necessary evil. It is against this backdrop that the court has turned down the plea of a public-spirited litigant that it should end the practice of asking students to give their caste details while seeking admission to schools. After all, the school-leaving certificate is the most important document for a person wanting to avail of the facilities of reservation in admissions to institutions of higher education.

While decreeing that the schools cannot insist on knowing the caste of a student if he/she does not want to reveal it for one reason or another, it stressed the need for such information, particularly when the students want to enjoy the benefit of reservation in future. However pragmatic and commendable the apex court’s decision may be, it is not a justification for retaining the caste system in society. It is a social menace that needs to be fought on all fronts. It will disappear if the ennobling concept of equality is introduced in all walks of life so that even those at the lowest rung of the caste pyramid do not feel discriminated against, either socially or economically. This necessitates providing everyone a level-playing field. It was in furtherance of this objective that reservation was thought of as a temporary measure by the founding fathers of the Constitution.

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Vistas of change
Monopoly gets a rap on the knuckles

THE European Union's Court of First Instance has rejected the Microsoft Corporation’s appeal against an anti-trust judgement that had fined the company a record Euro 497 million in 2004. The court had also ordered that Microsoft must disclose communications protocols that would help competitors make products that work with Windows, and sell a version of Windows without the Media Player software. The US major has already paid the fine partially and even released this version of Windows, to lukewarm response.

The EU court’s decision, which can be appealed against, addresses a fundamental anti-trust issue. Over 95 per cent of personal computers worldwide use the Windows operating system which comes bundled with a number of applications, including the Windows Explorer and Media Player. Many software companies feel that their rival products like RealPlayer and iTunes face unfair competition because Microsoft bundles similar applications with the operating system. This denies the consumer a fair chance to get the best software. The court agreed with this contention.

Microsoft has earlier faced anti-trust regulators in US courts also and it was only in 2001 that the company arrived at a settlement with the US Department of Justice that required the company to share its application programming interfaces with other companies. The behaviour of any company that dominates the market towards its competitors has increasingly been looked at by anti-trust regulators worldwide. Apple should make iPod's system more compatible with other music players, says France, Intel's has been targeted by German authorities, and even a court in South Korea is examining Microsoft’s practices. Clearly, the consumer is finding a voice through the anti-trust regulators worldwide. It is high time India’s Monopolies and Restrictive Trade Practices Commission (MRTPC), too, shakes itself out of its moribund state and monitors the trade practices of monopolistic multinational companies so that the consumer does not suffer. 

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Thought for the day

We shall have to learn to refrain from doing things merely because we know how to do them. — Theodore Fox

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Law for public servants
Inadequate to promote good governance
by Dharam Vir

THE government has drafted what is called the Public Services Bill, 2006, with a view to providing a statutory basis for the regulation of public services as envisaged in Article 309 of the Constitution. Currently, rules like the Civil Services Conduct Rules; the Control, Classification and Appeal Rules; the Leave Rules; the Pension Rules; the Recruitment Rules; etc, applicable to public servants (the expression used therein is government servants) have the sanction of law by virtue of a proviso to the Article referred to.

The draft Bill is purported to be a piece of umbrella legislation under which the government will notify and promulgate inter alia a Public Service Code of Ethics, a Performance Management System for Public Service Employees, and a Public Service Management Code. The draft Bill also provides for the protection of whistle-blowers and the establishment of the Public Services Authority for facilitating and development of public services.

The overarching objective of the proposed new law is to develop public services as a professional, politically neutral, merit-based and accountable instrument for promoting good governance and better delivery of services to the citizens.

The Public Service Code of Ethics shall enjoin upon every public servant to discharge his or her duties with competence and loyalty; care and diligence; responsibility, integrity, honesty, objectivity and impartiality; without discrimination and in accordance with the law.

The proposed performance management and accountability system for public service employees intends to hold the public servants accountable for the achievement of the designated results in consequence of the expenditure of the resources placed at their disposal.

The provision relating to the protection of whistle-blowers is intended to ensure that no person is victimized or discriminated against for reporting suspected improper governance actions in the workplace. This provision shall apply not merely to public servant whistle blowers but also to those who are not in public service.

The proposed Central Public Services Authority shall have a wide-ranging charter of duties mainly of an advisory and oversight nature. It shall be guided by the basic principle that while the public servant is protected from victimisation for any bonafide action, he shall also be accountable for his action as well as inaction.

Although there are a number of dedicated and bright civil servants at all levels in the government, it is no secret that in popular perception public service has failed to live up to the requirement of an effective, efficient and accountable instrument of governance and service delivery. In fact, in several quarters, babu bashing is a favourite pastime, forgetting all too often that the top and middle-rung civil servants of today recruited prior to the nineties represented, perhaps, the best of the available talent when there existed hardly any other opportunity of comparable employment.

While there are black sheep everywhere (and a cynic might say that in public service black sheep preponderate), the failure of the current system to deliver is also due, in no small measure, to a woeful inadequacy of an ambience that is supportive of the effective compliance and implementation of the prescribed rules. Public service is not an island and the public servant does not function in a vacuum.

Currently there are enough rules and regulations that have no less the force of law that can keep the public servant on the straight and narrow path and hold him accountable for his action as well as inaction. The need is for better implementation, compliance and enforcement with an enabling environment that promotes implementation, compliance and enforcement.

For example, the Conduct Rules require that the public servant shall lead from the front, remain politically neutral; he shall not bring any extraneous pressure for the furtherance of his interests and if he is acting under the instructions of his superiors, it shall be ensured that such instructions are in writing.

But where is the corresponding law or rule that prescribes that political neutrality shall be respected, that there will be no interference in areas that are the legitimate domain of the civil service, or that oral instructions will not be given?

And, above all, where is the framework for providing assurance that there shall be no informal reprisals or patronage distribution through exercise of power of transfer ad posting?

In fact, the absence of an appropriate framework has created a situation where the unscrupulous in the civil service are in a position to camouflage their own wrong-doing behind the smokescreen of non- existent orders from ‘above’.

In suggesting a Public Service Management Code, the draft Bill tantalisingly comes close to the recognition of this core issue but seems to funk when faced with the moment of truth.

According to the draft Bill, the Public Service Code will inter alia prescribe that the interface between the political executive and the public service will be clearly established based on the principles of political neutrality, professional excellence and integrity.

But whereas definite timelines are envisaged for the implementation of other provisions of the Bill (e.g. six months for the provision relating to the protection of whistle-blowers, 12 months for the promulgation of Performance Management System, etc), no timeline has been prescribed for the promulgation of the Public Service Management Code.

Instead, the Bill merely states that such a code shall be drawn up after consultation with the stakeholders. The process can indeed be interminable considering that the draft Bill itself was prepared for enactment during 2006 (as seen from its title) and we are already more than half way through the year 2007.

The Public Service Management Code, which is the crucial keystone to any improvement and reforms in public administration, should be the placed on the critical path. Also, the contents of such a code should be elaborately spelt out in the law itself and not left to subordinate legislation by way of rules, which can be varied at the discretion of the government of the day. Ideally, a separate law should be enacted for the purpose. And it should receive precedence over whatever else is promised in the draft Bill.

A properly constructed and implemented Public Service Management Code will also provide the necessary reinforcement and strength to the other provisions of the Bill.

Making public service as a professional, politically neutral, merit-based and accountable instrument for promoting good governance and better delivery of services to the citizens is a complex task, but certain minimum strategic prerequisites can be listed. These are:

First, clearly define, own and respect the roles and responsibilities of the political executive and the civil service executive. Also, within the civil service define and disclose the precise duties and responsibilities of each functionary for which he can be held accountable.

Second, insulate the public servant against extraneous considerations and pressures.

Third, strengthen the sentinel institutions like the service commissions; positively support their independent and impartial functioning; prescribe the qualifications of their members and the process of their selection that is independent, transparent and inspires confidence.

Fourth, establish statutory independent ombudsman for grievance redressal who shall have powers to award effective and instantaneous punishment (as, for example, the powers vested in the Information Commissions) for wilful wrongdoing and negligence.

Fifth, enforce accountability; present action taken reports on the Comptroller and Auditor-General’s audit reports to the legislature and the public within three months.

Sixth, reduce, if not totally eliminate, the differential between the civil service retirement age and the upper age for the members of authorities and bodies like the service commissions, regulatory commissions and information commissions. This will place public servants beyond the pale of temptation of post-retirement pastures and further strengthen their backbone.

The writer is a former Deputy Comptroller and Auditor-General of India.

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Present-day ostriches
by I. M. Soni

A bunch of beauties comes to an ice-cream parlour in the university, buys cones, goes down the corridor of the market, giggling. They think nothing of their action of licking cones in public.

They are unaware of the prying eyes of the public around them. They think, like the poor misguided ostrich, with its head in the sand, that they are invisible.

There is yet another class. To this belong verbal vandals who, from the safety and cosiness of their car, fling foul words on ladies and gentlemen of their parents age.

Cars are an extension of their homes, their personal refuges where they feel protected and invisible. Home provides liberty, public places restrain.

The mobile phone plays a similar role for these ostriches of modern society. They use it as their life-line linking them to their social and business support network.

It is emotional, too. The boy who whispers in cell phone is using it as his heart-link. So is the girl! Both think like the ostrich.

When boys and girls speak on mobile, they think they are talking only to the listener at the other end. They become so engrossed in their conversation that the presence of the person next to them matters not — even when he is sarcastically smiling!

Why do we show this indifference to people around us? Is it because we think that others are non-people?

The reason is related to the isolation and anonymity of the modern crowded urban life. The more the people, the less we know them!

We deal with this by pretending that the crowd is not there. We mentally shut it out. Thus, cocooned in our mental space, we hold hands, hug, kiss in parks, lick cones, eat hot-dogs, drown drinks, insult elders and whisper intimacies in mobile phones while in full public glare.

We are becoming a nation of headless ostriches!

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Mass discontent in Pakistan may lead to radical changes
by Sushant Sareen

Clearly, the prospect of Nawaz Sharif’s return terrified General Pervez Musharraf so much that he preferred to defy the Supreme Court of Pakistan and create a grave constitutional crisis in the country rather than face the political challenge that Nawaz Sharif posed to his tottering regime. By sending Nawaz Sharif into exile, General Musharraf has, at least for the foreseeable future, warded off the immediate threat he perceived from the former prime minister and his most implacable political opponent.
Thousands of supporters gather as the coffin of a slain pro-Taliban cleric is carried at a stadium in Peshawar
Thousands of supporters gather as the coffin of a slain pro-Taliban cleric is carried at a stadium in Peshawar 
— Reuters

Had he allowed Nawaz Sharif to stay in Pakistan, Musharraf’s political game plan to perpetuate himself would have come crashing down. But having exiled him, Musharraf might have inadvertently strengthened forces that could well shake the very foundations of the Pakistani state.

Interestingly, the very factors that prompted Nawaz Sharif to return to Pakistan also left General Musharraf with no option but to banish him from the country. The immediate reason for Nawaz’s return was of course the favorable verdict he received from Pakistan's newly empowered and emboldened judiciary. Nawaz was confident that the regime wouldn’t dare to send him into exile in defiance of the orders of the Supreme Court of Pakistan. If even after this, Nawaz Sharif had not come back, he would have been politically finished in Pakistan.

But there were also other factors at play that made Nawaz come back. Firstly, the reports of a political deal between General Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto had overnight raised the political stock of Nawaz Sharif and catapulted him into a position from where he could steal a large chunk of Benazir’s anti-establishment vote-bank. Second, both because of the purported Musharraf-Benazir deal and because of Nawaz’s imminent return, the ruling PML was on the verge of disintegrating, with a large section breaking away to re-join Nawaz.

Once this happened, Musharraf would find it impossible to either get re-elected from the current assemblies or from the assemblies that would come into existence after the next general elections. Third, Nawaz had forged a new alliance – All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM). This alliance combined Nawaz’s popularity with the MMA’s street power. Finally, with Musharraf’s popularity reaching its nadir, Nawaz sensed that even if he was imprisoned on his return, he would emerge as the figure around whom the opposition to Musharraf would coalesce and launch a movement to force the current dispensation out of power.

These very same factors compelled Musharraf to even risk charges of kidnapping and hijacking just so as to prevent Nawaz from taking political centre-stage in Pakistan. At the same time, by flagrantly violating the orders of the Supreme Court, Musharraf has made a show of strength and sent a signal that he will stop at nothing to achieve his political game plan, no matter what price it extracts from the country and how much it damages the institutions of the state.

This means that if the Supreme Court tries to restrain his illegal and unconstitutional actions, he will not hesitate to castrate the Supreme Court, something that his chief flunky, the president of the ruling PML, Chaudhry Shujaat, has been threatening to do for sometime now. Musharraf’s strong arm tactics are also aimed at Benazir Bhutto, who has been delivered a clear message that unless she agrees to his terms for a political deal she will not be shown any consideration or leniency if and when she returns.

Partly because of the regime’s high-handed crackdown on political workers, partly because of complacency among Nawaz allies and supporters, and partly because of a general disillusionment with politicians, the sort of public reaction that was being expected on the streets of Pakistan if Nawaz was exiled never happened. In anything, by expelling Nawaz, Musharraf has driven a wedge in attempts to forge a united opposition front against the regime.

Apart from making the right noises, there was little response from Nawaz’s APDM partners on the street. Quite clearly, the MMA realized that with Nawaz out of the picture, and his party not in a position to capitalize on his exile, the MMA is ideally placed to reap the benefit of the public anger over Nawaz’s exile.

Musharraf’s calculations are simple. With opposition unity damaged, there will be no united front against Musharraf. As a result the anti-Musharraf vote will get split. This means that if the PML can keeps its flock together then because of local factors they will be better placed to win in the elections. On the other hand if the opposition were to pose a united challenge to the regime then unless there is massive and unprecedented rigging the chances of the ruling alliance wining are negligible. But large scale rigging could easily bring the people out on the streets. The same dynamics will also hold true for the presidential elections.

The political calculation of the regime is simple. If they hold the Presidential elections with Musharraf in uniform, then the opposition can either participate in these elections or resign. If they resign Musharraf will get a walk over. But if they participate and put up even a single candidate against him, then they will give legitimacy to Musharraf’s election.

But they will never be able to agree on a single candidate, which means that even if there are defections from the ruling alliance, the division of votes will ensure Musharraf’s election. As for their resigning and raising serious questions on the legitimacy of the elections, well when has Musharraf or his cohorts ever cared for constitutional propriety or legitimacy?

There are only two forces that can now thwart Musharraf’s game-plan: One, people power; Two, the judiciary and the media. Unfortunately for Pakistan and fortunately for Musharraf, rather than relying on the strength of the people, the political forces in Pakistan rely more on the judiciary and the media for winning their political battles against the regime. But the courts and the media can only complement a political struggle, they can’t substitute it.

In fact, without the pressure of the streets of Pakistan erupting in anger against the regime, it will not be very difficult for a military dictator to once again muzzle the media and the judiciary. Therefore unless Pakistan's political parties can get their workers and cadres mobilised, they will be left twiddling their thumbs.

But this will not mean the end of the crises facing Musharraf or Pakistan. With political parties out of the scene, but with discontent, disgruntlement and alienation rising by the day, the danger is that a new and more virulent change might replace the current dispensation, one that may shake the very foundations of the Pakistani state and society. After all, if normal political activity is crushed with a heavy hand and the military regime does not allow a popular political alternative to emerge, then the people will be left with no option but to support some force that is not afraid to pay back the Pakistan army its high-handedness and brutality in its own coin.

The political class in Pakistan is fast becoming irrelevant in being able to force a change inside Pakistan. And the civil society, on which many Pakistanis seem to place their faith, is in no position to either confront the military regime or launch, much less, sustain a long drawn out political agitation. This then raises the very real possibility of the public’s discontent getting channelised into support for the Taliban who are fast emerging as the only force with the ability to take on the Pakistan army.

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The Kite Runner runs into trouble
by Claire Soares

THE Kite Runner has run into trouble. The film version of a best-selling book that has put Afghanistan on the literary map will not be screened in Kabul after controversy erupted over a pivotal rape scene.

Khaled Hosseini’s novel hinges on a life-changing boyhood incident. Amir, the narrator and a privileged member of the Pashtun tribe, witnesses the sexual assault of Hassan, his Hazara servant and best friend ho races to retrieve the fallen kites of opponents during flying contests. The guilt about his cowardly failure to intervene and help his friend haunts Amir throughout his life.

But the father of Ahmad Khan, the Afghan boy who plays Hassan in the film, sees this element of the story in very different terms. He is angry about the rape portrayed in the film and worried that it could have dangerous repercussions for his family.

“They said they would not film this part,” Mr Ahmad told BBC Radio. “Of course I am worried about it. My own people from my own tribe will turn against me because of the story. They may cut my throat, they may kill me, they may torture me, anything could happen to me.”

A representative of the film’s Paramount Vantage studio confirmed that the film would not be released in Afghanistan, but said this was because there was no suitable distribution network in the country. When asked about the rape controversy, she declined to comment.

The film’s director, Marc Forster, whose previous hits include Monster’s Ball and Finding Neverland, has spoken about his determination to have an authentic Afghan feel to his new film. Although the Taliban insurgency forced the film-makers to shoot the movie in China, the script stayed in the Dari dialect.

Forster used two Afghan schoolboys for the lead roles. “I went in [to a school] and played and improvised with them to find the ones who had the strongest connection to the characters,” he said in a recent interview with the Los Angeles Times. “We had very early conversations with the families.”

But Mr Ahmad has said he was misinformed and other cast members are now reportedly demanding that the scene be cut. Hollywood producers have said that Afghan fears are misplaced, as the scene has not been filmed in an explicit fashion, precisely so as not to offend local sensibilities.

“The scene contains no nudity; it’s rendered in a very impressionistic way,” Rebecca Yeldham, a producer, told the BBC. “It’s also important in being faithful to the story that there’s no confusion that the attack in the alley was a sexual violation. We’re working with various organisations on the ground to advise us on theas it evolves in Kabul. We don’t believe that kids’ lives are at risk.”

Critics expect the film to be a huge hit, benefiting from the popularity of the novel and the success of Hosseini’s second book, A Thousand Splendid Suns, which is top of the New York Times’ best-sellers list.

The Kite Runner will have its premiere in Hollywood on 2 November and goes on general release in Britain on 26 December. But one man who has already seen the film is President, George Bush. After a weekend screening at the White House, he was said to be moved, suggesting the film is a timely reminder of why the West has a continuing presence in Afghanistan.

By arrangement with The Independent

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US-China cooperation can counter OPEC
by Sebastian Mallaby

OPEC now appears more menacing than it has in a long time. For an administration that made energy security a priority right from its first months, this is a humiliation.

At its meeting a year ago, OPEC resolved to restrain output and force higher prices on consumers. That muscle-flexing worked: It reinforced the market dynamics that have brought prices to $80 a barrel. Then last week, after much American pleading, OPEC magnanimously promised to boost output by a token amount. “Our message to consumers is that we care,” OPEC’s leader told the media. The unspoken subtext was, “You are at our mercy.”

Thanks to the high prices of recent years, oil exporters are sitting atop mountains of money. The United Arab Emirates, for example, has a government trust fund worth perhaps $1 trillion; with each passing month, the piggy bank grows bigger. Most OPEC members are in a better position to sustain a loss of access to our markets than they used to be, whereas our ability to survive an interruption in supply has not grown commensurately.

Next there is the fact that, as the oil expert Daniel Yergin points out, Asia has supplanted North America as the largest oil consumer. This changes OPEC’s calculations fundamentally. The oil states used to worry that if they pushed prices too high they would force Western economies into recession, which would diminish demand for oil and ultimately drive prices lower.

This mechanism restrained OPEC’s greed, particularly at moments when the U.S. economy looked vulnerable. But today China’s annual growth rate is 12 per cent and India’s is 9 per cent, so OPEC need not lose any sleep about the U.S. slowdown. Americans can experience economic pain, but oil states no longer have to feel it.

Then there is the change in Arab trade patterns. Europe has become the main supplier for Arab OPEC members: Saudi Arabia gets almost a third of its imports from the euro zone plus Britain, whereas only about a tenth of its imports come from the United States.

The result is that the Arabs increasingly think of oil prices in terms of euros or pounds, since those are the currencies they need to pay for their imports. At times when the dollar is falling – as it is now – this means Arabs will force Americans to pay more to finance Arab purchases from Europe.

China’s oil strategy currently leads it into conflict with the United States. China has often been the chief disruptor of American efforts to squeeze Iran over its nuclear program, because China thirsts for Iran’s energy. China spent three years resisting U.S. efforts to stabilise the Sudanese territory of Darfur because it has a stake in Sudan’s oilfields. The nightmare scenario is that, in its search for oil security, China might develop a blue-water navy and assert a right to oil in the South China Sea.

But it doesn’t have to be this way. Chinese and U.S. oil interests are actually similar. Both countries want reasonable prices, reliable supply and freedom from OPEC blackmail. China may think it is enhancing its energy security by cozying up to Sudan or Iran, but the truth is that Sudanese and Iranian production will drive down the market price China pays for oil whether or not Beijing sides with rogue states at the United Nations. So intelligent diplomacy could convince the Chinese that their best oil policy isn’t a navy. It’s an effort to boost non-OPEC energy options, from switch-grass ethanol to electric vehicles.

By arrangement with LA Times-Washington Post

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