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CHANDIGARH | REGION | NATION
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Read under headings Max (maximum temperature), Min (minimum temperature), R (rainfall in past 24 hours) and TR (total rainfall):
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Parts of HP
get rain New Delhi, April 24 Temperature:
Past 24 hours change: The maximum temperatures fell appreciably in Himachal Pradesh and changed little elsewhere. Departure:
This was appreciably above normal in Jammu and Kashmir, above normal in Rajasthan and normal in the rest of the region. The highest temperature in the region was
42°C recorded at Sriganganagar (Rajasthan). Forecast valid until the morning of April 26, 2006:
Rain/thundershowers are likely at a few places in Himachal Pradesh and at isolated places in Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Weather will be mainly dry in the rest of the region. Forecast for Delhi and neighbourhood valid until the morning of April 26, 2006:
Partly cloudy sky. The maximum temperature will be around 39°C. Farmers weather bulletin for Delhi forecast valid until the morning of April 26, 2006: Sky will be partly cloudy. Outlook for the subsequent two days:
No large change.
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Met department predicts below-normal monsoon New Delhi, April 24 Based on its eight-parameter power regression and probabilistic model, the IMD said four out of eight parameters that govern the monsoon were “unfavourable” at the moment, making the rainfall prediction for “monsoon 2006 to be below normal, bordering on near-normal”. Though in the same breath, the IMD chief also clarified that the situation was “not alarming" at all. Briefing mediapersons on the long-range forecast for 2006 south-west monsoon, IMD Additional Director-General B. Lal said the rainfall for the country was likely be 93 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus five per cent. This means that in the terms of rainfall, the country is likely to receive 83 cms of rainfall this year. Last year, it rained 87.9 cms against a normal rainfall figure of 89. 2 cms. “Even in the worst case scenario, the country will not receive less than 85 per cent of the LPA, which is certainly more than what we got in 2002, when the situation was bad and the rainfall recorded was 81 per cent of the LPA. In all likelihood, the 2006 rainfall will be in the range of below-normal, bordering on near-normal. And if more parameters become favourable, we might also get very good monsoon,” he told The Tribune. This is what The Tribune also wrote last week, saying that some parameters of the models were favourable and some against, bringing the sum total to a situation which was stopping 2006 to be a very good rainfall year as of now. As per the latest rainfall classification of the IMD, rainfall between 90 to 98 per cent of the LPA is slated as below normal, 98 to 103 per cent near normal, 102 to 110 per cent above normal and more than 110 per cent excess. “ Below 90 per cent of the LPA would have been deficient. We are predicting rainfall to be 93 per cent of the LPA. Since no adverse impact is expected, rainfall is not likely to go below normal, but remain near normal,” Dr Lal said. The IMD says it is too early to give any firm answer on when the monsoon will actually hit India or what the forecast for the July rainfall as a whole and seasonal rainfall between June and September over the four broad homogeneous regions will be. These predictions will be issued on May 15 and in the first week of July. But it does say that the probability for the 2006 south-west season monsoon over the country as a whole to be deficient, below 90 per cent of the LPA, is only 22 per cent. From the agriculture point of view, it all depends on which of the four homogeneous regions — north-west India, north-east India, central India and south peninsula — get how much rainfall and when. But, they also add that with good irrigation facilties in states like Punjab and Haryana, monsoon may not have that large an impact on agriculture that particular year, but long-term prospects do improve when the ground water gets recharged, whatever time of the year that may be.
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