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Magical growth rate Roadblocks for Congress |
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Engines of growth
Missiles are cost-effective
The course reunion
FLASHBACK ‘03 — DIPLOMACY Delhi Durbar
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Magical growth rate THE rosy picture of the economy painted by the Central Statistical Organisation is bound to make every Indian feel proud of the country’s performance this fiscal. The economy grew by a record 8.4 per cent during the second quarter (July-September) and is expected to reach the level of 9 per cent in the third quarter. It is believed that the economy’s overall performance during 2003-04 should be over 7 per cent. This is remarkable compared to the 4.3 per cent recorded last year. This means that the country can feel confident of recording an 8 per cent growth rate during the Tenth Plan, something which was unthinkable last year. A close look at the sectoral performance, however, gives a slightly different picture. The economy has, no doubt, done well, but it is not entirely because of any policy formulations of the government or the private sector’s management skills. Much of the credit should go to the weather god for the plentiful monsoon this year, which pushed up growth in the agriculture sector to 7.4 per cent against last year’s 3.5 per cent. The services sector has been performing excellently for a long time and has done better this year. What is, however, creditable is that manufacturing — a laggard so far— too has posted better results. With an encouraging GDP growth rate, bulging foreign exchange reserves, increasing foreign direct investment and a booming stock market, there should be no dearth of jobs in the country. But this is not the reality. Employment generation is alarmingly inadequate, threatening to destabilise the country’s social structure. Reeling out figures is a meaningless exercise for the masses. Efforts should be made to ensure growth with sufficient job opportunities so that the country stops adding to the already huge army of the unemployed. Our economic managers must concentrate on this crucial aspect in the interest of social stability. |
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Roadblocks for Congress TWO grand alliances contesting against each other in the coming Lok Sabha elections is the stuff electoral dreams are made of. It was Congress chief Sonia Gandhi’s announcement about her party’s readiness to forge an alliance against the National Democratic Alliance that gave rise to such hopes. But within a few days of the announcement, it has become clear that the Congress faces an uphill task in cobbling together an alliance that can provide stiff challenge to the NDA. The question of who will lead the alliance is not the only one that bothers parties, which would, otherwise, like to oppose the NDA. The Congress has certain characteristics which keep most parties at bay. These have been acquired by virtue of the fact that it was the ruling party at the Centre and in many states for over four decades. Most political parties in the country have grown on anti-Congressism. Take, for instance, the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh. The BJP was never a force to reckon with in the state. The TDP displaced the Congress as the ruling party. In no way can it think of ever having an alliance with the Congress. The DMK, the CPM, the Samajwadi Party and what is broadly referred to as the Janata parivar all face such a difficulty. Small wonder that Mrs Gandhi’s telephonic conversation with DMK chief M. Karunanidhi and her meeting with Mr Ramvilas Paswan have not set the Yamuna on fire. Far from that, they have set in motion a process to revive the Third Front with, possibly, some help from the ruling coalition. The assertion by Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav that his party will not join hands with any party that has a tie-up with the Bahujan Samaj Party has poured cold water on the idea of a grand secular alliance. That he has ignored the Congress demand to drop former Chief Minister Kalyan Singh’s nominees from his Cabinet even after Mr Singh’s meeting with Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee shows that he considers the Congress, rather than Mr Kalyan Singh, expendable. Sooner than later, the Congress will realise that anti-Congressism is so deep-rooted among the Opposition parties that it is difficult to unite them under the Congress umbrella. |
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Engines of growth THE Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) are regarded as the modern engines of growth. Their alumni are well placed both within the country and abroad. However, the movement to enlist their cooperation for raising funds to serve their alma mater better is yet to gain momentum. There are few efforts to set up endowments, scholarships, etc., by industrialists, philanthropists, NRIs, IITians and others. Since education is going to be one of the major strengths of India in the emerging knowledge society, the need for redoubling the efforts in this direction has become greater. Last year, some NRIs had offered suggestions to Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee who, in turn, commended their “Guru Dakshina”. The Union Ministry of Human Resource Development has also taken some initiatives but nothing concrete has emerged so far. NRIs are forced to reconsider their plans to set up educational institutions here because of bureaucratic apathy and procedural delays. One may recall the bitter experience of one Mr Nathu Ram Puri in getting transferred a piece of land for setting up an institute of engineering and technology in Mullanpur Garibdass village of Kharar subdivision in Punjab. The idea of Bharat Shiksha Kosh (BSK) that was announced soon after the successful celebration of the 50th anniversary of the IIT system, caused deep consternation among the prospective donors. Provisions such as routing all charitable contributions to IITs through the BSK, curbs on the IITs from accepting aid directly and restrictions on the donors from specifying how the funds were to be used drew flak from various quarters. Clearly, there is need for a fresh look at the issue with a view to helping the IITs and developing the overall educational infrastructure in the country. |
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I have measured my life with coffee spoons. — T.S. Eliot |
Missiles are cost-effective RECENTLY the Mountbatten Centre for International Studies, UK, hosted the first ever workshop on missile issues in South Asia that was attended by strategic experts from India, Pakistan and China, the three countries in the region with ballistic missiles. In addition, there were scientists and missile experts from the UK, the US and Egypt. Former Pakistan Chief of Army Staff Gen Jehangir Karamat and this writer presented papers on Threat Perception, Missile Doctrine and Military Strategy. Dr Han Hua from Beijing University discussed missile non-proliferation in South Asia. Her paper admitted Chinese missiles transfers to Pakistan and reaffirmed the “all-weather” friendship between China and Pakistan. Her theory was simple: there is a cascading “missile effect” in the region - China matching the US, India matching China and Pakistan matching India. But China, she insisted, was no threat to India and, therefore, India did not need to match China’s missile capacity. General Karamat painted some worst case scenarios in which the very existence and survival of Pakistan was threatened by India. He feared that soon Pakistan might be facing a two-front scenario, the second being Afghanistan, where he said India was fighting a proxy war against Pakistan. Contingencies created by India that threatened the very survival of the nation had to be met by pre-emptive strikes. Pakistan therefore needed enhanced missile capability to correct the existing imbalance with India in its conventional forces. Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programmes were entirely security-driven. The General’s message was clear: Pakistan would resist Indian hegemony with all the forces at its command and provide continued support for the Kashmiri “freedom struggle”. He was rather opaque about the missile strategy though it was clear that it was meant for India’s heartland. The American and British role in such workshops is not just to act as facilitators but also to project their Cold War experience and how it could help India and Pakistan in establishing a strategic risk restraint regime. But most of all, they compulsively inject the inflated theory that Kashmir is a nuclear flashpoint. While the Chinese participated in the workshop, the focus was on India-Pakistan missile issues. The accepted view on ballistic missiles is that these are more cost-effective than manned aircraft, are more visible than nuclear weapons, have a greater psychological effect than other weapons and therefore the increased willingness to use them as a conventional weapon. Curiously, cruise missiles that have been used extensively as stand-off weapons in Afghanistan and Iraq are legally exempt from the existing missile technology control regimes. In the India-Pakistan and North Asia-East Asia context, missile tests and firings have been used for political signalling and domestic politics. North Korea and China keep Japan and Taiwan on their toes. Ambiguity on weaponisation of missiles, their accidental or unauthorised use and possession by non-state actors are current concerns. During the Kargil conflict, Indian scientists wished to carry out a routine flight test of Agni II missile. But as Pakistan was known to have deployed its Hatf missiles close to the Line of Control (LoC), India desisted from doing so. During Operation Parakram, Pakistan test-fired three missiles between May 25 and 28, 2002, at the height of the confrontation. India had earlier flight-tested Agni I in January 2002. Looking back, there has been a historical disconnect between the Indian space and nuclear; space and missile; and missile and nuclear programmes. Their trajectories began converging slowly but confluence occurred only in 1998 after the nuclear tests. Curiously, the military was kept out till the very last. Technology, not doctrine or the user, called the shots. Yet the Indian missile story starting in 1983 is impressive. The 333 Prithvi Missile Group (PMG) with a 150-km range (1000 kg pay load) is part of 40 Artillery Division. It was raised in 1997. It is armed with conventional warheads and tasked for battlefield interdiction in depth in conjunction with the Air Force. The Army is being provided with a P2 version with an enhanced range of upto 200-250 km. Used along with the multi-barrel Pinaka and Smerch, its concentrated employment will act as a “fire-boost”. Two new PMGs—444 and 555—are under raising and could be operational by 2005. The question whether the PMGs would only be conventional or conventional and nuclear-armed is still being debated and fitted into the evolving missile doctrine. The 335 Missile Group with the Agni II was raised after the 1998 nuclear tests when the Agni relinquished its role as a mere technology demonstrator. It was officially designated an IRBM. Agni II was successfully test-fired on April 11, 1999, and on January 17, 2001. It has achieved a range of 2000 to 2500 km carrying a 1000 kg payload. Limited production of Agni II had begun in 2001-02 but is still not in service. Agni I (700-900 km) was undertaken as a crash project only in October 1999 to cover the gap in range between Prithvi II (250 km) and Agni II (2500 km). The 334 Missile Group under raising will have Agni I and is expected to be operational in 2005. Agni III with ranges between 3000 and 4000 km, which will be India’s strategic equaliser with China, is likely to be flight-tested in 2004. India’s sea-launched ballistic missile programme is also moving ahead to provide the country with the ultimate sea-based nuclear deterrent. Pakistan’s ballistic missiles, like its nuclear programme, is entirely under the purview and command of the Pakistan Army. It is not only the sole custodian of the country’s core values but also of its core assets. In 1989 Pakistan had made a breakthrough in making ballistic missiles by successfully testing indigenous Hatf I and Hatf II missiles with a range of 80 and 100 km respectively with a payload of 500 kg. These are known to be conventional missiles. The 300-km Hatf III (Chinese M 11) was inducted into 155 Composite Rocket Regiment of the 2nd Army Artillery Division at Attock. Subsequently, North Korea supplied the No-Dong missile which became known as Hatf V or Ghauri with a range of 1500 km. Thus Pakistan continued to improve the Ghauri series (North Korean No-Dong) based on the liquid propellant and the Shaheen (the Chinese M-9) based on the solid propellant. This was christened as Hatf IV. By development and import (by hook or by crook), Pakistan’s ballistic missiles serially numbered Hatf I to Hatf VI achieved ranges from 80 to 1500 km for selective targeting of India’s heartland. On balance Pakistan has an edge in missile capability. While Pakistan has inducted into service, Hatf I to III, Shaheen I and Ghauri I into the Army, in India Prithvi alone is in service. No weaponisation has reportedly taken place. The Chinese missile programme dates back to 1950. The Second Artillery Corps under PLA was formed on July 1, 1966, to deploy strategic missiles. The PLA is known to have missiles with conventional warheads and the complete range of missile delivery capability from short range to ICBM and
SLBM.
— To be concluded |
The course reunion WE were meeting over 40 years after our commissioning into the Indian armed forces. The venue was an Army officers’ mess in Delhi Cantonment, and the purpose a contributory lunch. Age-wise, most of us were looking back at 60. Physically, most were afight with the recession of the hairline and inflation in the belt region. It was nostalgia all the way.We reminisced about our days at the National Defence Academy and retold stories of those wonderful teens, while the wives were getting to know each other. There was too much noise to permit comprehension. A sudden shout of “20th course fall-in” came in from one of the corners, followed by the shuffling of feet and loud laughter. “Dear course-mates,” the Emcee tried to make himself heard over the din, “and their mates, and those who remained happily untied...” All eyes turned to Ravi Vasudev, the veritable happy bachelor. When one is among peers, one is always young. The tenor and content of conversation fully confirmed the verity of this conclusion. If there had been any change in us, it was mostly volumetric. In most cases you could pinch an inch off a finger. Some of us had not met since we left the NDA. But the faces came back on the cerebral recall while names in some cases remained illusive. The preferred mode of address was through the use of initials, VK, GS, MM, et al. All were hosts and all were guests. Since I had arranged the venue, I stayed near the door welcoming all. Shortly, a big car halted in the porch and released Kamal Kishore Khanna (KKK) and his wife. His is an unforgettable face. He was the heavyweight boxer in our course. Over the years, he has apparently given up boxing but the heavyweight is still keeping him company; he nearly touched both sides of the car roof as he alighted. KKK had already turned towards the reception counter as I approached. I made conversation with his wife. I told her that we had appeared together before the Services Selection Board in 1957, and how we were made to do extra sit-ups for the physical test that had left us lead-legged for two days. Just to fill time, I also told her that my English being grossly grammar-parched, her husband had a great hand in encouraging me and helping me through the interviews. I further shared with her that in view of his initials we called him K cube. She smiled politely. As KKK turned, I expected-and dreaded-the good old bear hug of 40 years ago. but all I got was a limp handshake as he walked away to mingle with the others. A little later I approached him again, as he was getting a beer refill. “so K cube, what are you doing these days?” I asked familiarly. He remained impersonal as he told me of his flourishing auto parts business. I walked away wondering at the missing warmth. A while later, someone mentioned that “K cube” had been looking for me. I wondered why, as I walked up to him. He wrinkled his forehead, wiped the beer froth off his lips, and then broke loose. “Arre, RK tu saale...” As he went into his old unprintable epithets, he gave me that rib-crushing hug which left me nearly suffocated. This was the old cadet KKK. He suddenly made me feel decades younger. As I regained my breath, I found myself agreeing with those who say that memory often plays truant with ex-boxers.
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FLASHBACK ‘03 —
DIPLOMACY
WHAT seemed to be a Sisyphean labour till a couple of years ago in the context of Indo-Pakistan relations, now looks possible. The two countries were on the road to detente in the year just ended. During the past 56 years of turbulent Indo-Pakistan relations, there have been few years like 2003 which witnessed breathtaking developments. Most of these have been positive, aimed at easing tensions, stepping up trade and economic relations and forging closer people-to-people contacts. The Indo-Pak relations never looked so rosy as in a watershed year like 2003. This was the year when the world was thrown into a tailspin with the United States’ war on Iraq and the ousting of the Saddam Hussein regime as a result of “Operation Iraqi Freedom”. This was the year when America’s relations with Europe hit an all-time low over Iraq. The Islamic world watched with trepidation the American triumphalism in the wake of Washington’s military conquests in Afghanistan and Iraq and the Bush administration’s not-so-veiled threats of similar punitive action against the “rogue states”, Iran and Syria. The Indo-Pak thaw eclipsed other top international developments — the Iraq war and its aftermath; the rise and spread of jehadi brand of terrorism; tangible breakthroughs in Sino-Indian relations; the unprecedented military action by the Royal Bhutanese Army against three Indian insurgent outfits operating against India from Bhutanese soil; and the coming of age of India as a regional power to reckon with. On the last point, the year just ended proved that the Indian elephant which was sleeping till early nineties, which had woken up with the introduction of sweeping economic reforms by the then P.V. Narasimha Rao government in 1991, which was ambling till Pokhran-II in May 1998, started jogging in 2003. India’s diplomatic and economic clout increased in the comity of nations so much so that during the second Indo-ASEAN summit in Bali (Indonesia) Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee mooted the idea of an Asian Union on the lines of the European Union, comprising China, Japan, Korea and India. India’s “Look East” policy continued to move in top gear with Mr Vajpayee proposing a Delhi-Hanoi rail link, connecting India and Vietnam with countries like Myanmar, Thailand and Laos en route. Last year, India’s foreign exchange reserves crossed the magic figure of $ 100 billion. Though it is far behind Japan’s $ 550-plus billion and China’s $ 350-plus billion, the Indian common man must have felt a sense of pride having seen Pakistan’s forex reserves pegged at a meagre $ 11 billion. The Indian diplomacy was pro-active during 2003, the icing on the cake being its handling of Pakistan. Prime Minister Vajpayee kickstarted the peace process on April 18 from a public rally in Srinagar. He also made it clear that this was his third and last attempt at smoking the peace pipe with Pakistan. To its credit, Islamabad not only welcomed Mr Vajpayee’s peace offer but reciprocated too. From then on, the two countries steadily but slowly walked down the path of peace and rapprochement despite irritants in the form of continued terrorism and infiltration from the Pakistani side and occassional acidic, unwarranted statements from Pakistani officials and ministers. Then came a flurry of peace overtures from India on October 22 after a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS). External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha announced 12 proposals vis-a-vis Pakistan aimed at improving people-to-people contacts and stepping up business and trade. The October 22 proposals took the Pakistani government by surprise. The Pakistani government was put on the backfoot. This was reflected by the fact that Islamabad took one full week to respond to the Indian proposals which included resumption of a bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad, a bus or rail service between Khokhrapar and Munabao, a ferry service between Mumbai and Karachi, resumption of sporting ties, including cricket and calling next rounds of technical-level talks for resumption of civil aviation links and the Samjhauta Express. Pakistan responded positively to these suggestions not only for diplomatic reasons but also because by turning them down Islamabad would have alienated its own masses. The proposals took wings and within a few weeks it was decided to resume air links from January 1 (along with overflight rights). The Samjhauta Express is scheduled to start from January 15. An important point to be emphasised here is that India did not compromise on its previously-stated position of “No” to the oft-repeated Pakistani insistence on Indian guarantee that it would not snap air links in future unilaterally. This was the real victory for the Indian diplomacy. New Delhi succeeded in putting Indo-Pak relations on the course it desired which the military regime of General Pervez Musharraf had stoutly and consistently opposed — establishing people-to-people contacts, strengthening trade and commerce and putting Kashmir issue on the back burner. Prime Minister Vajpayee bowled yet another diplomatic bouncer in November when he surprised everybody by inaugurating the third SAARC Information Ministers’ Conference in New Delhi. At this conference, he invited SAARC member countries to participate in India’s economy rather than be apprehensive about it. But Mr Vajpayee had reserved his trickiest political googly till December 12 when, addressing the Hindustan Times’ Leaders’ Initiative, he mooted the idea of single currency and free borders in the SAARC region. Pakistan was again on the backfoot and aired the view that Mr Vajpayee’s latest suggestion was “not unrealistic”. The biggest diplomatic victory for India this year has been its ability to convince the international community (read the US) of Pakistan’s role in fomenting international terrorism and that New Delhi would not resume bilateral talks with Islamabad till that country put an end to crossborder terrorism. |
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Delhi Durbar WITH Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani giving ample indications of advancing the general elections because of the feel good factor for the BJP-led NDA, the stage is set for the party’s National Executive in Hyderabad on January 11 and 12. Andhra Pradesh has been carefuly chosen by the BJP for the session because Chief Minister Nara Chandrababu Naidu has already set the ball rolling for assembly elections. Interestingly, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee who appeared disinclined in advancing the Lok Sabha elections all along has had a change of heart. The change in gambit is in the light of the BJP’s stunning victories in the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The talk in ruling party circles is that general elections might be held in the first half of May.
PM likely to expand cabinet With two regional partners from Tamil Nadu — DMK and MDMK — pulling out of the Vajpayee government, the Prime Minister is due for another cabinet
expansion and reshuffle in the run-up to the general elections. Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee is keeping her fingers crossed that her wish of a weighty portfolio will now be granted by Vajpayee with four slots having fallen vacant. She is presently a minister without portfolio in Vajpayee’s cabinet. With the DMK and the MDMK bidding adieu to the BJP-led NDA, the stage is set for the ruling AIADMK at Fort St. George in Chennai to fill the breach. With Vaiko’s MDMK expected to merge with the DMK, the way has been paved for the coming together of the BJP and AIADMK though Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa is unlikely to allow this chance slip through her hands without seeking her pound of flesh.
Flurry of activity With the prospects of a snap general election becoming real, the Capital has been witnessing a flurry of activity on the political front as the curtain rang down on 2003. The Congress as the major Opposition party has shaken its lethargy and started making contacts with the Left and regional parties in a determined bid to work out electoral arrangements to defeat the BJP. With the heat getting to them after the debacle in three states, Congress president Sonia Gandhi is making overtures to like-minded parties. She spoke to DMK supremo M. Karunanidhi over the phone. The Congress has to go along with one of the two Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu which accounts for 39 seats in the Lok Sabha. Having a truck with the AIADMK is ruled out because of “Amma’s” outbursts against the Congress leadership. The other major worries for the Congress are Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, West Bengal and Maharashtra.
Bhatia plays a quiet role Congress MP from Amritsar and former Union Minister R.L. Bhatia has been drafted by the Congress high command to end the impasse in the Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee. Preferring to remain in the background, Bhatia has been meeting the members of the dissident camp with Punjab Agriculture Minister Rajinder Kaur Bhattal in the vanguard as well as Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh. Apparently, the Congress high command does not want to precipate matters in Punjab by caving in to the demand of the dissidends for a leadership change in the border state. The high command wants to find an honourable way out without causing a vertical split in the PPCC. Contributed by Satish Misra, Prashant Sood and S. Satyanarayanan
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The One with a smiling face, nails shining like the moon, hand adorned with the disc, worshipped by the Lord of gods, recliner on the serpent-bed, and lotus-navelled God, Sree Hari, I worship You alone. I don’t consider any other as god at all. — Shri Adi Shankaracharya I wasted time, and now doth time waste me. — Shakespeare There is not a single moment in life that we can afford to lose. — Goulburn Well arranged time is the surest mark of a well arranged mind. — Pitman Count that day lost, whose slow descending sun views from thine hand no worthy action done. — Young The hunger of the devotees is the praise of God and His true Name is their sustenance. — Guru Nanak |
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