Wednesday, March 19, 2003, Chandigarh, India






National Capital Region--Delhi

THE TRIBUNE SPECIALS
50 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE

TERCENTENARY CELEBRATIONS
B U S I N E S S

A long war can jolt economy
But it can absorb the impact of a short war: experts
New Delhi, March 18
Oil prices in India can shoot up by 45 per cent in the next financial year in case of a prolonged war and disquiet in West Asia. Such an increase will push up the wholesale inflation rate to 9.7 per cent whereas the industrial recovery will be snuffed out with industrial growth pushed down from the current 6.1 per cent to a low of 2.5 per cent.

Sensex may jump on hopes of short war
New Delhi, March 18
India’s badly beaten-down shares is likely to witness a short relief rally when trading starts Wednesday, as bruised investors bet on a quick resolution of the imminent US-led military strike on Iraq.

Nasdaq expects 30 Indian listings
New York, March 18
The Nasdaq Stock Market feels India has the potential to replace Israel and become the country with the largest number of firms listed on the bourse after the USA and Canada.

French perfumes for Chandigarh
Mumbai, March 18
Armed with a vast collection of fragrances, top French perfume makers are beginning to drown the Indian market in a heady pool of scents.



EARLIER STORIES

 

Website on US visa
Washington, March 18
The US State Department has unveiled a new website, “Destination USA: Secure Borders. Open Doors”, to better communicate changes in US visa policies and procedures.

ANALYST’S DIARY

Is Corpn Bank good for long term?
C
orporation Bank’s alliance with the LIC is strategically important for both. There is tremendous scope for it to leverage upon the size and reach of the LIC. This will enable benefits in the two key areas for the bank-distribution & fee-based income. It plans to open 100 ATMs, 100 extension counters and 25 branches in the premises of LIC.

ROUND-UP

Petro dealers stir on Mar 20 likely
Bathinda, March 18
Even as the state government has declared that the VAT assessment system will be implemented in the state, the Petroleum Dealers Association has threatened to launch an indefinite strike in protest against the same.

  • Internet service for train
  • RIL may offer gas stake to NTPC
  • HP to review power pacts

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A long war can jolt economy
But it can absorb the impact of a short war: experts
Tribune News Service

If war breaks out

* Oil prices may shoot up by 45 pc
* Inflation can go up to 9.7 pc
* Growth likely to fall to 2.5 pc
* Short war can see a 9 pc jump in oil prices
* Price index can go up by 4.5 pc

New Delhi, March 18
Oil prices in India can shoot up by 45 per cent in the next financial year in case of a prolonged war and disquiet in West Asia. Such an increase will push up the wholesale inflation rate to 9.7 per cent whereas the industrial recovery will be snuffed out with industrial growth pushed down from the current 6.1 per cent to a low of 2.5 per cent.

When Saddam obliged India

According to some analysts said Saddam Hussein's departure from the scene would adversely affect India's interests. They noted that when Saudi Arabia put India at the lowest priority during the oil crisis in the mid-70s, next only to Israel, then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi visited Iraq. Saddam Hussein immediately ordered diversion of Iraqi oil tankers from the high seas to India to meet its urgent requirements. IANS

Analysts say while India may manage to absorb the impact of a short war with little damage to oil supply, a long and messy military campaign will result in soaring oil prices, quashing the economy's attempts to right itself.

A Ficci study on the impact of war on Iraq by the USA says that a prolonged war can actually push up the international oil prices to as high as $ 40 per barrel (48 per cent increase) creating a severe negative impact on the Indian economy. While the assessment by a team of experts at the federation says that probability of a prolonged war, that is more than three months, is very less, even a short war can lead to a 9 per cent increase in domestic oil prices in 2003-04.

In case the war ends within a few days, the Wholesale Price Index is likely to go up by 4.5 per cent in 2003-04 against the 3.6 per cent increase estimated for 2002-03. The industrial growth may face slowdown by around 0.5 points , nearly 5.5 per cent in the next financial compared to 6.1 per cent that has been estimated for the current financial year.

Supporting the estimates by past trends (Gulf War 1991), experts say the international oil prices would settle in the range of $23 to $ 25 per barrel, which is slightly higher than the normal levels.

“The increase in oil prices in the recent past has mainly been a reflection of the market anxiety about the war and assigning of a war premium to oil prices. It is expected that as and when the tension in the Gulf subsides, oil prices will settle in the range of $23 to $25 per barrel”, the federation has pointed out.

Another fact was the dismantling of the Administered Price Mechanism in the oil sector which existed till March, 2002, ensuring that the impact of any sharp fluctuations in the international prices was smoothened out through the mechanism of the Oil Pool Account.

The experts have also ruled out the fears of oil supplies being cut off for a long time. 
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Sensex may jump on hopes of short war

New Delhi, March 18
India’s badly beaten-down shares is likely to witness a short relief rally when trading starts Wednesday, as bruised investors bet on a quick resolution of the imminent US-led military strike on Iraq.

Analysts and traders expect the market to open firm and stage moderate rally in the early trade Wednesday after US President George W. Bush’s ultimatum to Iraq cleared uncertainty that had hung over global markets for months.

The Indian stock markets were closed Tuesday for Holi.

“A relief rally in blue-chip equities will be perfectly in order when the market opens for trading tomorrow,” said Neeraj Deewan, a stock market analyst.

“Bush’s ultimatum to Iraq has cleared all uncertainties about war that wrecked investor sentiment in the past few weeks. The President's speech has left little doubt in investors’ minds a US-led attack on Iraq is imminent,” Mr Deewan said. IANS
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Nasdaq expects 30 Indian listings

New York, March 18
The Nasdaq Stock Market feels India has the potential to replace Israel and become the country with the largest number of firms listed on the bourse after the USA and Canada.

According to Nasdaq officials, at least 30 to 40 Indian companies are likely to get listed on the exchange in 2004-05.

"Some of the industries that are still important for the progress of India are exactly the industries Nasdaq really dominates and has made a great contribution to the world's capital markets," said David Weild, Vice Chairman of Nasdaq.

"Today, we have three Indian companies listed on the Nasdaq (Infosys Technologies, Satyam Infoway and Rediff.com), compared to over 100 for Israel," Weild told a press conference here. "But I believe India ultimately could dwarf Israel in number of listings."

Among the sectors Weild mentioned as having potential to list on the tech-laden Nasdaq stock exchange to raise capital include IT solutions, biotechnology, telecommunications and business process outsourcing.

In the biotechnology sector, Weild saw a "great potential" in India, and said Nasdaq was the most suited route to access overseas capital market.

Nasdaq's model of looking at growth potential rather than immediate profits were best suited for biotech firms given the fact that such companies have long gestations before returning profit.

Weild also made it clear that in order to tap the true potential of listing on the Nasdaq, it was imperative for companies listed on it to have their equity research division based in the USA because of the time difference.

"You cannot call somebody half way around the world to analyse a stock in the U.S.," he said, adding that that was one of the critical reasons for Israel's success with the American bourses.

Weild said while 97 equity research analysts were covering at least one Israeli stock in the USA, the ratio was seven analysts for one stock for India.

Alfred R. Berkeley, vice chairman of Nasdaq, said Nasdaq was looking at India with a 15-year perspective and said that was one of the reasons why it had established one of its few offices outside the U.S. in Bangalore. IANS
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French perfumes for Chandigarh

Mumbai, March 18
Armed with a vast collection of fragrances, top French perfume makers are beginning to drown the Indian market in a heady pool of scents.

Products from big names like Christian Dior, Baccarose, Nina Ricci, Escada, L’Oreal and Sonia Rykiel, so long available through the friendly neighbourhood smuggler, will soon hit store shelves even in small-town India.

The French Government and India’s big retail chains have tied up for the “French Season in India”, a road show of the European nation’s cosmetic and fragrance industry.

The French Season is moving from Mumbai to New Delhi, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Pune, Kochi, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Gwalior, Chandigarh, Chennai, Goa and Pondicherry in the next three months.

The first event in Mumbai, a three-day affair, was a glitzy do with the city’s celebrities flocking to the Taj Mahal Hotel downtown to be seen, and smelt.

“The French Season was very popular in Mumbai. About 2,000 persons visited the exhibition,” Xavier Bertrand, commercial attaché, French Consulate, Mumbai, said.

“It is a rare opportunity to study what people want. Sure we will be stocking a lot of perfumes from the exhibitors,” said Arvind Gala, a storeowner from the upscale Juhu Vile Parle Development area in suburban Mumbai.

The French believe that the Indian market for perfumes is growing. Retailers who flocked to the show said the market for perfumes in India was about 20-30 million-strong.

The fragrances still cost a bomb. A tiny 50 ml bottle of Baccarose is pegged at Rs 2,000 though a price conscious buyer may pick up the 100 ml bottle for another Rs 1,000 more.

However, the French believe there is a market big enough to justify the hype and ad spends. IANS
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Website on US visa

Washington, March 18
The US State Department has unveiled a new website, “Destination USA: Secure Borders. Open Doors”, to better communicate changes in US visa policies and procedures.

The website, http://unitedstatesvisas.gov/, is expected to serve as a single point of access to US visa information.

With sections titled “Doing Business and Working Temporarily in the USA”, “Studying in the USA and Coming on an Exchange”, “Visiting the USA”, and “Coming Permanently to the USA”, it is designed to help users find information about current visa rules and procedures quickly and easily.

The campaign aims to decrease the confusion associated with US visa policies. IANS
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ANALYST’S DIARY

Is Corpn Bank good for long term?
Ashok Kumar

Corporation Bank’s alliance with the LIC is strategically important for both. There is tremendous scope for it to leverage upon the size and reach of the LIC. This will enable benefits in the two key areas for the bank-distribution & fee-based income. It plans to open 100 ATMs, 100 extension counters and 25 branches in the premises of LIC.

While this will be used to provide services to the LIC, it will also provide the crucial distribution reach to the bank. The bank will also manage the LIC’s collection and payment services business, besides treasury management. It will, especially, be benefited from managing the huge free float of the LIC. It has also entered into a similar alliance with New India Assurance.

Corporation Bank has a commendable asset base, an outcome of its diversified loan portfolio. It has relatively low exposure to the economy sensitive sectors at 2 per cent of total advances.

Due to dismal growth in interest income and with increasing competition, Corporation Bank is focusing on fee-based income and retail. It has ventured into the housing finance market through its wholly owned subsidiary, Corpbank Homes.

The bank had reported a healthy business growth in FY02 with a 27 per cent rise in advances and 15 per cent increase in deposits. The bank recorded a healthy increase in its bottomline, on the back of strict cost-control measures. During the year, the bank focused aggressively into the retail finance market (specially housing finance) to diversify its loan portfolio.

Having identified fee-based income as a growth area, the bank is targeting a share of 22 per cent from non-interest income within the next 3 years. This is possible due to the tie-ups with the LIC and New India Assurance.

Considering the past performance of the bank and its road map, a CAGR of 23 per cent in net profits is possible, especially with business through its alliances. With very low downward potential as it quotes close to book-value, Corporation Bank appears to have a fair bit in store for patient investors.
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ROUND-UP

Petro dealers stir on Mar 20 likely

Bathinda, March 18
Even as the state government has declared that the VAT assessment system will be implemented in the state, the Petroleum Dealers Association has threatened to launch an indefinite strike in protest against the same.

Mr Baljeet Singh Mann, district president of the association, said here today a meeting of the association decided that the members would go on an indefinite strike from March 20 if the state government did not assure them about the non-implementation of VAT. OC

Internet service for train

NEW DELHI: The RailTel Corporation of India Ltd. has planned to provide internet kiosks at New Delhi Railway Station and internet service in one of the trains as pilot projects during 2003-2004. The train and route are under finalisation.

Meanwhile, the Railways Ministry has issued detailed guidelines to Zonal Railways for the provision of telephone and internet services at railway stations. UNI

RIL may offer gas stake to NTPC

NEW DELHI: RIL may offer the NTPC a 10 per cent stake in its south Iran LNG project to win the state-owned firm’s tender for supplying three million tonnes of LNG for power projects in India.

“Our 5 million tonnes capacity Jamnagar LNG import terminal hinges on getting base load customer like the NTPC. We already expressed interest (to supply LNG) and look forward to closely working with the NTPC at both the Iranian liquefication site and the import terminal in Gujarat,” company sources said. PTI

HP to review power pacts

MANDI: Himachal Pradesh Irrigation and Public Health and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Thakur Kaul Singh has reiterated the commitment of his government that all MoUs signed by the previous government with private parties for the execution of hydel projects will be reviewed in order to safeguard the interest of the people of the state. UNI
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BIZ BRIEFS

Oil tumbles
London, March 18
Oil prices tumbled around $2 a barrel and stocks climbed sharply on Tuesday as U.S. President George W. Bush's ultimatum to Iraq started to clear the pall of uncertainty hanging over global markets. Bonds yields held near two-month highs while the dollar reached new two-month highs against the euro and Swiss franc on expectations that a US-led war with Iraq will begin and end soon. "The market appears to be pricing in a war that brings a quick victory and minimal problems," said Michael Wilson, Chief Investment Officer at Ausbil Dexia in Sydney. Reuters

IOC bags contract
New Delhi, March 18
IOC today said it had bagged a Rs 200 crore contract to lay gas pipeline system from Baroda to Kalol via Ahmedabad in Gujarat. IOC, in consortium with STQ of Moscow and Essar Construction Ltd, would implement the gas pipeline project on engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) basis for Gujarat State Petronet Ltd, a company statement said here. PTI

Markets closed
Mumbai, March 18
All principal markets in Mumbai, including the BSE, the NSE, the foreign exchange (Forex), money market, bullion, oils & oilseeds, pepper, grains, pulses, spices, cotton, sugar and metals remained closed today on account of Holi. PTI

Service tax
New Delhi, March 18
The PHDCCI has called for immediate reversal of the service tax levied on foreign billing of tour operators. The chamber in its representation to Tourism Minister Jagmohan said the levy of service tax would only increase the costs to a foreign tourist due to the tax impact and as a result would lead to substantial foreign exchange losses. TNS

Air chimneys
New Delhi, March 18
Padmini Appliances has launched a new range of electric Fresh Air Chimneys. With price range starting from 3,990 onwards, these chimneys have been specially designed to suit the Indian household conditions and have been developed with the help of a Spanish company Cata Spain, stated a company release. TNS

A-I Director
New Delhi, March 18
Mr MSV Rao, Director IT, Air-India, was declared as the Citrix Network Computing CTD of the year at the two-day national seminar on technology that concluded here recently, informed a press release. TNS

Hyundai gets ISO
Chennai, March 18
Hyundai Motor India has been awarded the ISO 14001 certification for its sustainable environment management practices. The certification process, initiated in March last year, was completed in record time of 10 months with “Zero NCRs.” UNI

Aquila target
New Delhi, March 18
Kinetic Engineering today said it had scaled up the sales target of 250cc motor cycle Aquila from 100 units to 200 units besides introducing the cruiser motor cycle in four new cities due to increasing demand. PTI

Jindal Photo Films
New Delhi, March 18
As part of its multi-level diversification and expansion plan, professional photo market leader Jindal Photo Films Limited (JPFL) has submitted an EOI with the government to capture a major chunk of the ‘niche segment’. UNI
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