Sunday,
February 23, 2003, Chandigarh, India |
GUEST COLUMN ON RECORD |
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COMMENTARY
Tit for tat does no good
Will Bush listen to
Blix?
Disturbing signs of decaying times
Congressmen’s concern for Sonia
When heroes
make virtue out of vice
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ON RECORD The exercise of Budget-making in India continues to be shrouded in secrecy. The last day of February remains the most sacrosanct day for the Finance Minister and his team. Since the unveiling of the structural reforms programme in 1991, successive Finance Ministers have attempted, in their own ways, to demystify the exercise. With less than two years to go for the General Elections, Finance Minister Jaswant Singh may have to do a tightrope walk to ensure that the objective of fiscal consolidation is not compromised in the name of political populism. The Kelkar panel's recommendations on direct and indirect taxes recently have evoked strong reactions, especially from the country's political establishment which believes that implementation of the Kelkar recommendations will hurt the interests of the common man. To what extent the Finance Minister implements the recommendations will be known only on the day he makes his maiden Budget speech. With the countdown for the Budget having begun, The Tribune spoke to eminent economist and Director of National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) — a leading economic think-tank of the country — Dr M Govind Rao on a wide range of issues from the Budget for 2003-2004 to the general economic situation. Excerpts: Q: More than ten years after the economic reforms process was started in 1991, do you think that there has been a discernible evolution in the exercise of budget making with more focus towards policy imperatives rather than being a mere accounting exercise? A:
I guess during these ten years, the quality of budget-making has declined. Increasingly, there is an attempt to overestimate revenues and underestimate expenditures. Failure to undertake real fiscal adjustment has caused the Finance Ministery to find ways and means of concealing the real problems. The exercise continues to be shrouded in secrecy. The attempt is to make announcements and not follow them up and show that they will make the adjustments, but not actually do them. Q:
Will the Finance Minister be able to achieve the objective of fiscal consolidation and at the same time not ruffle too many feathers in the political establishment? A: I guess there is very little leeway for the Finance Minister. The FM is an astute person and he is best suited to undertake real reforms without tom-tomming them. By putting out the Kelkar papers, he has allowed a lot of steam to run out. Q:
What, according to you, is the main problem that needs to be addressed by the Finance Minister while announcing the budget proposals? A:
The main problem to be addressed in the budget is fiscal adjustment. This has to be done alongside taking measures to revive the industrial climate and improve infrastructure sectors. Q: The political opposition to some of the recommendations of the Kelkar panel pertains to withdrawal of tax incentives in small savings, which, many feel, will hurt the middle class and therefore reduce demand by bringing disposable income in the hands of the people. Do you think this is a valid argument? A:
This is the most invalid argument. Given the nature of the saving incentives, it is possible for the persons to actually roll over the savings and get the tax benefit. In such a situation, the disposable income is higher and therefore, consumption is higher. The policy was to encourage savings but ends up encouraging consumption! There is also the question — why should only some saving instrument be provided with incentive? If saving incentive should be provided, it should be done through interest rate policy. Tax incentive for selected saving instruments only distorts the structure of interest rates. Q: On corporate taxes, there are reports that the government may change the rate of depreciation. Will this be a prudent move? A: I really do not think that there will be much change in the rate of depreciation. The Kelkar recommnedation does reduce the depreciation rate but not by much. The recommendation essentially aligns depreciation rate of the Income tax Act to that of Company Law Act. Again, if MAT has to be gotten rid of, it is necessary to rationalise tax preferences including the depreciation rate. Q: What measures would you suggest to bring down expenditure? A: Much of the rationalisation in government expenditure has been a reform by stealth. There has been no active policy on expenditure compression but if you see the number of employees there has been a decline. Surely, this is not enough. Again, the government may resort to cosmetic changes and one such measure is to undertake debt swap. This will reduce the interest outlay. Q: As the government has been unable to meet the revenue generation target from disinvestment of PSUs, is there a strong case for taking it out of the budgetary process? A:
Public undertaking is a part of the budget support and any disinvestment will have to be brought into the balance sheet of the government. |
COMMENTARY There are Pashtoons in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Together, they can undo both the nations. We have a deep interest in what happens there. India has a special interest in Afghanistan — sentimental and strategic. There are more links with India. Afghanistan was a major centre of Buddhism. Bamiyan is evidence of it. It was also on the trade route from China to Europe. Surely, the Afghans must be among the most developed and advanced peoples of the world. Alas, they are not! For the past 20 years, the Afghans fought a devastating civil war, lost a million and a half people and destroyed almost all cities and towns. They were pawns in the games of other nations. Are these people capable of self-rule? Have they the spirit of democracy in them? Can they keep the diverse ethnic groups and the country together? I am not sure. Pakistani intervention in Afghanistan began from 1973. Soon America joined in. Babrak Karmal invited the Soviet Army for help. The proxy war continued for four years. It bled the Soviets. Gorbachev, the Soviet leader, admitted as much. He announced his decision to withdraw the Soviet forces. The proxy war created a huge Mujahideen army under Hekmatyar, armed by the USA and financed by the Saudis, to fight the Soviets. Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaida also entered the fray. As the Soviet Army withdrew, the rebels seized power and brutally murdered President Najibullah. They set up an Islamic republic with the help of Uzbek general Dostum and made Prof Burhanuddin Rabbani, a Tajik, the new President. This was not what Pakistan had planned. It wanted a pliant Pashtoon as President. Rabbani agreed to a compromise — to make Hekmatyar the Prime Minister. But Hekmatyar refused to accept the job and laid siege to Kabul in 1993. It was then that Pakistan decided to create a loyal force of the Taliban. By 1996, the Taliban gained control of Kabul. Both Rabbani and Hekmatyar fled. Rabbani and his military commander Ahmed Shah Masood organised the Northern Alliance to fight the Taliban. The Taliban ousted Dostum from Mazar-i-Sharif in 1997. Finally, the Taliban managed to assassinate Masood, too. Before his death, Masood wrote a letter to the US Senate Committee, in which he said: “The country has gradually been occupied by fanatics, terrorists, extremists, mercenaries, drug mafias...” He said the Taliban, consisting of Pashtoons, were unwilling to share power with any other ethnic groups. All these lead one to only one conclusion: Afghanistan is unable to hold together. There can be no peace and stability because Pakistan will always interfere in Afghan affairs for two reasons: to prevent a demand for a Pashtoonistan; and to secure military depth for Pak forces. But it is in the interest of the Pashtoons to have an independent state of their own, for in Pakistan they will always have to play second fiddle to the Punjabis. Afghanistan is a multi-ethnic country with a population of 25-26 million. Of them, 38 per cent are Pashtoons, 25 per cent Tajiks, 6 per cent Uzbeks and 19 per cent Hazaras. There are small groups too: Aimaks, Turkmens, Balochs, etc. The Pashtoons from the largest ethnic group. But others form the majority. And Tajiks and Hazaras are Shias. Thus, the divisions within the Afghan nation are deep. However, they decided to stay together. But it has not worked. Two attempts have already been made on the life of Karzai, the present head of Government. He is a Pashtoon. Karzai has failed to bring security to the countryside. And he has failed to secure international assistance to restore the life of the Afghans which has been devastated. Army and police forces are yet to be created. Today, the Pashtoon warlords on both sides of the Durand Line are united because of their common interest in the narcotic trade. The revenue from that had financed both Jehad and fundamentalism. According to UN statistics, the trade fetches about $10-15 billion per year. This is 25 times the annual budget of Afghanistan. This provides a strong incentive for an independent state, where they can be masters. The point is: as long as the Pashtoons remain divided on the two sides of the Durand Line, there will never be stability in either Pakistan or Afghanistan. Already, Hekmatyar is back in Afghanistan with the support of Pakistan's intelligence, ISI. The idea is to start the civil war all over again. This time the war will be fought against the minorities — the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. The minorities are bound to ask for a new dispensation. The Tajiks and Hazaras are Shias, supported by Iran. What should be India's policy? India is against ethnic separatism. But in Afghanistan, there is no alternative to the reorganisation of the state. We cannot ignore this reality. We are clear about our main objective: we do not want Kabul to fall under Pak influence again. Anything to promote Kabul’s independence must be welcome. For the present, the international community is committed to maintain the territorial integrity of Afghanistan. We must support this policy. India is already engaged in creating an army and police force. It is building up the transport system. And it is reviving the country's social infrastructure like education, health and so on. But Afghanistan must be declared a neutral state. Its neutrality must be guaranteed by the UN. |
Tit for tat does no good I
could not have gone for my United Nations assignment without going back to the city of my roots and
upbringing. This was one day in Amritsar. And it was packed. It was immensely stimulating and rewarding for two outstanding reasons. First: My visit to the Golden Temple. The house of God which I used to visit and walk to holding the index finger of my grandmother. Now I was walking to the Temple to thank the Almighty for bestowing a rare honour on me as an Indian. After the visit I was informed that the golden temple is expected to come up on the UNESCO Heritage list, in 2005. This would be the opportunity for Amritsar to be revived. Today it is a regressing city which was once a thriving textile hub. This I was told is due to the flooding of the city with cheap Chinese goods which Amritsar now cannot compete with. It was tragic to my city of birth stagnant and on the decline. It was dirty and polluted. After my visit to the Harmandir Sahib I was sitting in the public information office and we got talking of the traffic problems at and around the Golden Temple. With me were Ms Kiranjot Kaur an SGPC member, the SSP of Amritsar Kanwar Vijay Pratap Singh, Varinder Walia and Ashok Sethi of The Tribune, my husband Brij
Bedi, and the information officers…It was evident that there existed solutions both long and short term. And those present had the right ideas but they lacked the coordination and the will power to implement the decisions equally and firmly. The second reason why my visit to Amritsar was very impacting was what I saw at the Wagah border. (The India Pakistan land border). Of course I had seen the funny exercises on the television but seeing these in person was completely a new experience. Both sides of the border had open air stair-cased theatres for people to witness the retreat. I saw the very tall BSF Jawans marching with knees to their chins and smashing their heels to the ground as if to force them into it. The postures were to play to their respective galleries and were very belligerent in all their gestures. It was the same on the other side of the border. The slogans from the assembled people were nationalistic and confrontational. As I was standing closer to the Indian border, I had a closer view. To me it appeared like a dogfight and utterly uncalled for. It was clearly childish, immature and eccentric to an extent. I wondered whether our country’s spiritual heritage behoves it all. I asked myself whether it was civilised to provoke and be provoked. Was it maturity in matching anger with anger? Tit for tat is not my country’s heritage. “Never” was the answer from within. But something within me was compelling me not to be a mute spectator. I went up to the authorities and sought a permission to use the mike which was being used to blare out patriotic songs. They permitted and I requested my fellow citizens to replace the provocative slogans with those of peace and harmony such as: Insaneeyat kee Jai; Manavta kee Jai; Bhaichare Kee Jai; Aman Aur Shanti Kee Jai; Hindustan Pakistan Ke Bhaichare Kee Jai. And sure enough the tenor of the crowd changed from provocation to friendship; peace; goodwill; and well-being…The whole vibrations changed and started to go across the border towards Lahore. I did not wait to see what happened across. But imagine if we do this daily? I left the place only after writing the following in the visitor’s book: “I am confident that very much in my lifetime I will see peace and harmony between neighbours. We will then hear from the Indian side Pakistan Kee Jai and from Pakistan side Bharat Kee Jai.” But all this requires small and long steps and each of these will subtract and diminish that much of accumulated hostility. While at the United Nations I was walking by when I heard my mother tongue being spoken in a group of young men. I stopped and asked them from where were they? They said Pakistan. I said your conversation was so sweet that I could not resist for it was good Hindi for me. Thank you and I wish you well. Since then we have exchanged greetings whenever we passed by. One day in Amritsar was a huge tonic and a lesson for me to take to New York. In the long run tit for tat does no good to either. |
Will Bush listen to Blix? After three years of retirement, Hans Blix choose to holiday in Antarctic. His last job was the post of Director-General, International Atomic Energy Agency. An unexpected call by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan changed the course of his life from a peaceful, detached one to the world’s most sensitive and difficult job. Annan appointed him Chief of the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC). He became the chief weapons inspector for verification of arms of mass destruction, allegedly concealed by Iraq President Saddam Hussain: so the USA believes. All eyes are now on President George W. Bush. Doubtless, Hans team has done a commendable job; conducted more than 400 weapons covering over 300 sites. Inspections were performed without notice and access was almost always provided promptly. The places of inspection included industrial sites, ammunition depots, research centres, universities, mobile laboratories, private houses, missile production facilities, military camps and agricultural sites. Blix’s findings — “Unmovic has not found any weapons of mass destruction but recovered a small number of empty chemical munitions…” — might have cheered the world. But President Bush remains unconvinced. Hell bent upon what he calls “disarming Saddam Hussain”, he is threatening a war which nobody wants. President Bush’s dispensation is suspicious that “Hans swathed Iraq’s secret weapons in even-handed ambiguities at the United Nations”. Expectedly, Blix, as observers choose to put it , “was caught between Iraqis and Americans, as the referee of a game in which each side is looking to expose the other’s rancour”. The track record of the 74-year-old Blix, a Swede, shows that he is not the one to let the pressure of politics bear down on him or emotion of the monument run away with him. A former US Ambassador to UN said: “From Iraqi perspective, he will be too demanding. From the perspective of the Bush administration, he will be too judicious. From the perspective of people, who want peace at any cost, he will be too compromising”. Nobody knew the mild-mannered Blix better than Annan. Blix was a compromise choice for his post-retirement UN role. The Security Council had rejected Rolf Ekeus, the candidate put forward by the USA and Britain for the Chief Inspector’s job. Iraq too had repeatedly clashed with previous UN envoys, but Blix earned even Saddam Hussain’s goodwill. He had made his intentions clear from day one: “We are not coming to Iraq to harass or to insult or humiliate them. That’s not our purpose”. Blix is reported to have said it would be paradoxical if a war began before a determination was made whether Iraq truly represented a threat and was developing banned weapon system. Will President Bush listen to him? |
Disturbing signs of decaying times
New trends or call them changing trends or venture still further ahead and call them as disturbing signs of the decaying times we are living in. Foremost, for the past three months there had been a near battle for the post of president of the Sahitya Akademi between two aspirants — Bangla writer Mahasweta Devi and Urdu scholar-cum-critic Dr Gopichand Narang. The battle came to a close as this week Narang won with a comfortable margin. Thankfully, the personal and working lives of both Narang and Mahasweta have been non-controversial. So it was a battle on the so-called political ideology of the contestants.
On your own Behind the hype that goes into making international meets (the recently concluded NRIs’ meet and the just-concluded Inter Pacific Bar Association), there's this little reality tucked away — delegates have to pay for their own fares. In fact, several NRIs I'd interacted with spoke of this factor — they had to pay for their fares and stay and that the actual meet didn't match the expectations. Last week, as lawyer Pauline Riche flew down here from Tokyo to attend the specific meet on cyber laws etc., the rather brief conversation that I had with her rotated on how shabbily she was treated at the Indian Mission in Tokyo when she approached them for visa, the nightmare she went through whilst travelling Air India. When I asked her the inevitable — who paid for her fare, she came up with the much expected — “I did, of course!” Thankfully, I am no globe-trotter so wouldn't know the latest trends that go into the making and holding of seminars and meets, but this trend of delegates paying for their fares and stay seems an obnoxious trend. It boils down to the reality of the times we are living in — that only the moneyed would be invited because its they who would be able to afford that trip — what will happen to the talented who cannot afford to pay for their fare etc? They would have to either get close to one of the politicians or bureaucrats or just forgo any exposure.
Gulzar's fan Last Tuesday at the get-together in honour of Gulzar, I kept sitting at one end of the Press Club hall and continued looking at him from that safe distance and wondered where have such men disappeared. For he doesn't look his 68 years (born in 1934) and there’s that intensity in his eyes. With the political murder of my mother-tongue, Urdu, I have been deprived of reading its script and so have not been able to read the latest from him. However, for most part of the evening, I sat at one end of the hall, silently admiring Gulzar — his unaltered dress sense (kurta pyjama), that traditional footwear from Punjab, the un-dyed hair and, above all, the way he conducted himself...Distractions came about when I met friends who had earlier spent years in Srinagar and we got talking and discussing the situation in the Valley.
Tagore’s poetry Just whilst I was ending this column, I received from the UBS publishers a copy of a new book from them — Gitanjali by Rabindranath Tagore. Tagore’s poetry is what Paul Nash says: “One feels about them (the poems) that they are the thoughts that come to our minds in moments of deep feeling, written down for us in the simplest way.” This edition of Gitanjali has also incorporated the original Bengali lyrics in facsimile and the effect is so complete, so fulfilling. You will sense this the minute you will hold the book and move beyond the preface. |
Congressmen’s concern for Sonia Congress President Sonia Gandhi’s tour managers had apparently taken care to see that her election campaign in Himachal Pradesh did not coincide with that of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. So while Vajpayee was scheduled to campaign on February 20 and 21, Sonia Gandhi’s tours were planned for February 18, 19 and 22. But as Almighty would have it, inclement weather forced rescheduling of Sonia’s rallies in Himachal Pradesh to February 21 and 22, with the next two days (February 24 being the last day of campaigning) having been reserved for rallies in other states). While rescheduling her rallies, Congress leaders ensured that their president did not address too many rallies on the day Vajpayee was in Himachal Pradesh. Her rally in Nalagah, earlier planned for February 21, was shifted to the next day taking her tally of rallies on February 22 to four. “Speech writers’’ of Congress president in the capital were eager to know all that the Prime Minister said on February 20 and were sent a compilation of his speech as soon as it was reported by agencies. By planning Sonia’s rallies after those of Vajpayee, Congressmen apparently wanted their leader to have the last say. Third report The Madhya Pradesh government headed by Digvijay Singh has brought out its third development report. The first human development report in 1995 was about the state government’s failures which served to mobilise public opinion towards a new agenda. The second report in 1998 noted that a party is voted to power to make changes in the human development situation. In the foreword to the Third Development Report of Madhya Pradesh, Chief Minister Digvijay Singh that the Congress has fulfilled its commitment of universalising elementary education. To ensure quality, Madhya Pradesh has become the first State in the country to enact a People’s Education Act seeking to create a legal safeguard for quality. In healthcare, the state government admitted that it required to strengthen its efforts and bringing management of health institutions under community control. On the challenge of livelihood security for the poor in Madhya Pradesh, the Chief Minister said that macro economic policy must focus on employment creation as a clear objective in itself. Heat on Ayodhya Even as the Congress is finding it difficult to handle the heat on Ayodhya, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Digvijay Singh seems to have unwittingly given the BJP another issue to capitalise on. His forwarding to Prime Minister Vajpayee a demand for a nationwide ban on cow slaughter seems to have put his own party in a quandary. Mr Vajpayee was quick to make an issue of it declaring his party’s support to the cause at his first election meeting in Himachal Pradesh. The Congress might find it highly delicate to take a categorical stand on the issue. With the Bhojshala issue threatening to snowball into a major controversy, Digvijay Singh now has a battle on at least two fronts. On the back foot There can be many a slip of the tongue by those in the Government and running the country’s affairs. One such slip had the Rajya Sabha members in splits earlier in the week when Union Minister of State for Home Affairs I D Swamy while intending to speak something else ended up saying just the opposite. While answering supplementaries during the Question Hour on the number of communal clashes which the country has seen over the last year and what steps the Government intends taking in preventing such clashes, the minister was on the back foot. Facing a barrage of questions, Mr Swamy while pointing out that the number of communal clashes had declined over the last few years ended up saying that the Government also “gives rewards for communal clashes” which had members in splits. The slip
occurred when the minister was explaining what steps the government had taken in preventing the clashes. He probably meant to say that the government gives rewards to those providing information about a possible communal flare up. Interesting visitor There was an interesting visitor in the External Publicity (XP) Division of the Ministry of External Affairs in Shastri Bhavan a few days ago: Ashok Tandon, Officer on Special Duty to the Prime Minister. He had come to give some clarification on the PM’s address to the BJP Parliamentary Party on Iraq and the United Nations. Everybody, including MEA spokesman Navtej Sarna, was taken aback by an unscheduled and unprecedented briefing in XP premises from the PMO official. Since Kargil, the MEA has acquired a halo in the government’s scheme of things and its XP wing has become high-profile. There are several reasons for it. The MEA is the government’s show-window to the world, important in the post-September 11 scenario. There is no other ministry in the Government of India which has daily briefings. Not a surprise that XP’s annual budget exceeds Rs 20 crore. Contributed by Prashant Sood, Girja Shankar Kaura, T.V.Lakshminarayan and Rajeev Sharma. |
When heroes make virtue
out of vice Bollywood heroes are busy making virtue out of vice. “Every leading man wants to play a negative character. At this rate there'd be no more heroes left!” jokes filmmaker Suneel Darshan. In Darshan's own upcoming snazzy thriller “Andaz”, Akshay Kumar plays a morally ambiguous character. “The days of the goody-goody hero are over. Audiences are looking for excitement beyond the moral correctness of traditional screen heroism, and luckily our leading men are looking for the challenge of moral ambiguity,” Darshan told IANS. Anil Kapoor and Fardeen Khan, for instance, are trying to shed their noble images and play out and out negative characters in “Allwyn Kalicharan” and “Bhoot” respectively. Says Fardeen: “The character that I play in “Bhoot” has his own code of morality. I'd say he's very low on moral values.” Khan has changed his look to play the negative character. Anil plays a corrupt, seedy cop in “Allwyn Kalicharan”. “I must say being bad doesn't come naturally to me,” chortles the actor, who made a career out of playing upright all-white characters. After having won the first award of his life for his negative role in Abbas-Mustan's “Ajnabee”, Akshay Kumar is now set to play villain again. “I've just signed a film called “Akhand” with Marathi director Satish Rajwade. In it I play a completely negative role of a jailor during British India.” The director, whose earlier Marathi film “Mujhad” won a large number of awards, is stepping into Hindi films. Says Akshay: “What attracted me to the negative role is its dynamism”. “It isn’t an ordinary villain’s role. The character goes through numerous shades of emotions. I’ve never played such a role before. It’s also a special challenge to me because I’ve never done a period film before.” And it's not just leading men who are looking to make virtue out of vice. Don't forget the women. Kareena Kapoor is all charged about a “role where I play a killer, almost like Kajol in 'Gupt'." Sister Karisma plays what she calls a grey character in Suneel Darshan’s “Mere Jeevan Saathi”. In director Sanjay F. Gupta's first feature film, Sushmita Sen stars as the bored wife of an aging man who cheats on her husband. Says Kareena: “Somewhere all of us are tired of playing virtuous roles and want to explore the dark side — the darker the better.”
IANS |
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