Tuesday, March 6, 2001, Chandigarh, India |
A dam delayed is … Bhajan
Lal’s show |
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Congress in sunset zone THERE is a mighty implosion in the West Bengal unit of the Congress. In what has become a continuing process, one more piece, read eight MLAs, broke off and melted in the Trinamool Congress led by the mighty Mamatadi. Another chunk should be travelling in the same direction by tomorrow, the day the TMC wants to release its list of candidates for the May Assembly election.
BUDGET 2001 Blueprint
for stronger India
Darzion wali gali
Church
declares war on rape
P. RAMAN
Once-mocked
nation reaps a harvest of successes
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BUDGET 2001 THE budget has generated something close to euphoria in business, industry and the media. The reaction is fully justified. For four years a succession of shaky governments had pretended that all was well in the economy, when in fact its high growth rates were a statistical illusion, industry was in a deepening slump, and job growth had come down nearly to zero. The message that North Block therefore sent out relentlessly to the economy was, “Look out for yourselves. We, the government, can do nothing. For today politics is king.” This budget has shattered that mould of helplessness and defeat. The tone and the marshalling of evidence by the Economic Survey foreshadowed the change. What no one could be sure of was whether, in a year when the country faced five state assembly elections, the Finance Minister would have the political capacity to meet the challenges he had himself identified. In sharp contrast to Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee, Mr Sinha rose to the challenge, but left us to be in no doubt that he could not have done so without the sustained support of the Prime Minister. Over and above, the other benefits that will flow from this budget have provided reassuring proof that India has, once again, a government that can govern. The media has focused most of its attention on the measures the budget contains to revive the economy by promoting investment. Given the “byte-capturing” power of big business, this is hardly surprising. But the budget contains a great deal more, that merits much closer attention, because without sustained follow-up the promise that these departures contain could easily wither away. To begin with, the economy faces not one but three inter-related challenges. These are to bring down the fiscal deficit; to revive growth in agriculture and industry (as opposed to ephemeral and illusory growth in services) and through it real economic growth and employment generation; and to initiate the long deferred structural reforms without which the transition from a command to a market economy will remain incomplete. The last has become especially urgent because of the removal of import restrictions on manufactured and agricultural consumer goods that began this year and will be completed next year. The budget has tackled all three challenges, and in a manner that shows the government’s awareness of their inter-relatedness. But it has done so tentatively in a manner that holds out the promise of change more than change itself. That is why, without the most careful nurturing, the initiatives it contains could once again come to naught. Mr Sinha has tried to tackle the fiscal deficit mainly by lowering interest rates. As this percolates through the economy, it will lower the burden of interest payments by about Rs 10,000 crore for every 1 per cent decline. Unfortunately, since the government has also borrowed another Rs. 1,15,000 crore to cover its deficit the addition to interest in the coming year will wipe out these gains. The net benefit will therefore be reflected in the ratio of interest to the GDP rather than an absolute decline. A far more powerful tool for reducing the deficit was only mentioned in passing. This is the complete dismantling of administered pricing in petro-products. Mr Sinha paved the way for a rational market-based pricing of petroleum products by unifying indirect tax rates at 16 per cent. When the Ministry of Petroleum completes deregulation next year the present near-zero net subsidy will be converted into a 16 per cent ad valorem inflow of real resources. This will add Rs 30,000 crore to the government’s revenues. Unfortunately by then interest payments on this year’s fiscal deficit will swallow half this amount. Mr Sinha has yet to learn the penalties of delay. The fillip to industry has been dealt with so extensively that it need not detain us for very long. It will come from the reduction of interest rates, the reduction of the dividend tax from 20 to 10 per cent, and the exemption of capital gains tax on shares sales income re-invested in the primary market. The three together will lower the cost of borrowed funds and increase the equity portion of new investment. Together these should take upto 4 per cent off the present overhead cost of new investment - reduce it by a quarter. Can anyone blame industrialists for being ecstatic? But there is a caveat to be registered once more. All the benefits accrue to large, organised industry, which employs barely 10 million workers directly. There is very little directly in this budget for the small-scale industry, which employs other 35 million. This is not an oversight. It reflects the government’s awareness that the small scale sector first needs structural reform before it can avail itself of the opportunities that can be created by fiscal and monetary policy. The budget has made a determined start in changing the structure of the economy. That is what Mr Sinha referred to as the second generation of economic reforms. Unfortunately, though these are the most important policies he has unveiled, they have received the least attention. In agriculture, the Finance Minister has signalled two broad shifts: the government will free the movement of produce with only a minimum of restrictions, and will shift the focus of public investment from increasing the quantities of output to improving its quality and value added component. His emphasis on building cold storages and the like needs to be seen in this light. But there is a corollary to this: cold storages need regular power, and the SEBs will not supply power regularly if they have to lose money doing it. So the shift will not be possible if the state governments do not charge economical rates of power and eliminate theft in the name of the farmer. These public investments are therefore intended to accelerate reform of power pricing and distribution that the states have promised in the various memoranda of understanding that they have signed with the Centre, such as to meter rural supply and eliminate theft. Mr Sinha has conceded that much remains to be done. The second structural change pertains to the labour market. Ten years after Dr Manmohan Singh first raised the need for an exit policy, the Vajpayee government has finally enacted one. By freeing all establishments employing less than a thousand workers from the need to get government permission for laying off workers, it has opened the labour market for 96 per cent of industrial establishments and 89 per cent of industrial labour. Those who are laid off will get their accumulated provident fund (assuming these have not already been swallowed by the employers), 45 days of separation pay for each year of service and a year on unemployment insurance at 30 per cent of the last pay drawn. One can dispute the adequacy of the last, but the overall package provides a generous safety net for displaced workers for even five years service will take away more than two years’ pay worth of separation benefits. What Mr Sinha has not taken into account is that while this is more than generous in the west and north where investment is taking place and there are jobs to be had, it is far from adequate in eastern India where most sick and obsolete industry is concentrated and no one is investing. He needs to beware that the application of a single rule to all states does not become a source of political friction and further undermine Indian unity. The writer is a well-known economic commentator. |
Blueprint for stronger India DURING a recent conversation with a European diplomat he was told, “India is a sleeping tiger.” The diplomat retorted, “No! India is a sleeping elephant.” Finally, we agreed that “India is a sleeping giant.” Yes, India is a giant country both in terms of dimensions and human population. North-South and East-West dimensions are approximately 2,700 km. The human population is over 100 crore. It has seven major river basins, and the Brahmaputra basin is close to the size of the Amazon. But somehow people are not as enterprising as expected. It appears as if the country is suffering from some kind of amnesia. Anyway, a close study of the development process of the nation during the past 40 years shows that India can become as strong as any developed European country if the following 15 steps are taken in right earnest. 1. We must adopt a policy to bring down the rate of population growth to 0.5 per cent per year. All our development projects will be self-defeating if this factor is ignored. 2. We should build at least 300 dams of intermediate height — 350 ft to 400 ft across various rivers and their tributaries in a cascading manner to generate one lakh MW of power in next five years. The belief that dams require huge funding (Rs 6.00 crore per MW) is a myth. Follow Dr K.L. Rao’s model of building Nagarjuna Sagar Project, using stone masonry with “lime surkhi” requiring only token use of steel and cement. This programme should be followed by the extension of irrigation facilities in arid and semi-arid areas and anti-water-logging measures by constructing a network of drains. 3. Start a definite programme of dairy development and horticulture on a massive scale in the seven north-eastern states. Here green land is in abundance but no cattle to graze. Cattle are perishing in Gujarat and Rajasthan for want of fodder and water. These seven states can feed the whole of India with dairy products, fruits and vegetables. Cross-breeding programmes can bring another white revolution. 4. Start a definite programme for harnessing solar and wind energy on a massive scale. India is the only country to have 300 clear sky days in a year. 5. Reduce the oil import bill at least by 40 per cent, using strict austerity measures. The oil bill of Rs 75,000 crore this year was crippling for the Indian economy. The import of gas from Bangladesh and Australia may prove cheaper than the import of oil from Arab countries. So, lay more dependence on gas than on oil as a secondary source of energy. 6. Stop obscenities in films, TV advertisements and the print media to strengthen the social fabric so that the nation does not waste its time on morally degenerating activities. 7. The budget talks of infrastructure development in a big way. That is all-right. But it should be given top priority. Provide circular roads around each district town. Lay special railway lines with one station per 100 miles parallel to three busiest routes — Delhi-Calcutta, Delhi-Bombay, Delhi-Amritsar — and introduce super-fast trains of 250 km/ hr. Remember the cost of one 400-seater aeroplane is equal to laying 250 km of a railway track. 8. Split the bigger states like UP, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh further into two each. Build regional directorate headquarters over a group of 10 districts. A state with 150 constituencies (15 MP seats) can be administered most efficiently. 9. Rationalise the transport system so that railway services do not compete with bus services. Convert 40 per cent passenger trains into express trains. Hand over the running of 40 per cent trains (running within a state) to state governments or private agencies. 10. Launch a second green revolution by importing the best seed varieties of wheat, rice and sugarcane from Hungry, Australia, the Philippines and Brazil. 11. Reform the State Electricity Boards by allowing the privatisation of the distribution system in a systematic manner and as quickly as possible. 12. Create a special cell or ministry to promote exports and rope in direct foreign investment on a massive scale. The existing system to achieve this target is extremely sluggish. 13. Popularise and spread the Indian system of agriculture in African countries. The agriculture system in these countries is still in a primitive stage. Tubewell technology and other farming operations can provide a lot of work to Indians in Africa. 14. Devise a rational programme to ensure quality education in information technology right up to the district level. North India is still groping in the dark in this new greenfield. 15. Fix the minimum educational qualifications for legislators and members of Parliament to encourage talented people to enter politics. In the changed situation all doors to politics should be closed for illiterates or semi-literates. These 15 suggestions, if implemented, can totally transform the economic profile of the country. In today’s world only harsh decision can bring the desired results. The writer, an engineer by profession, is a senior functionary in the Haryana State Industrial Development Corporation. |
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Darzion wali gali THE Municipal Corporation of Chandigarh is sitting virtually on top of goldmine, blissfully unaware of the infinite possibilities it holds out, not only for enriching its coffers and funding public benefit enterprises, but also for shielding it from the odium and ire of both taxpayers and payers of sundry other municipal charges. One does not have to dig hard into this mine. The rich veins are stretched out on the very surface in the shape of arterial and non-arterial roads. One has just to name it to find it. “Naam” and “Roop” are the essence of existence. “Roop” comes first followed by “Naam”. We are not born with any name; our name is an after-birth phenomenon. Once it is attached to us it sticks to us like a leach. If we manage to pluck one away another springs in its place. Man is mortal but names are potentially immortal unless abruptly terminated by the fiat of a corporation, an administration or a government. Inanimate things such as cities and roads can be more easily stripped of their birthday names and given fresh ones. The change may be in just a bit of a twist as in the case of Kolkata or Mumbai or a total turn-around as in Chennai or the erasement of British road names as in New Delhi. The old, ones familiar, names are gone and new indigenous ones have appeared in their place with the result that people of the older generation feel like lost children in the woods of a big metropolis. Fortunately for Chandigarh, unfettered by the shackles of history, the roads bear no names except a few geographical ones. These nameless roads live only in categories ranging from V- 1 to V-7and go about as orphans without any “namkaran” ceremony to give them “a local habitation and name”. What a golden opportunity lies ahead for the corporation to adopt them and give them the names of big donors! The amount of donation beginning from a reserved price of several lakhs for a V-7 road and rising steeply up to a few crore or more for a V-2 or V-1 road, can determine which donor’s name should be given to it. The possibilities are endless. And when one corporation is overthrown by another in the electoral process, the budget pages can be opened once again and fresh start given to the naming game. Nothing in the law of the Constitution prevents the re-christening of inanimate roads, and there is plenty of precedents and case history of sudden alterations taking place in the names of roads all over the country and almost in all towns. What a windfall it would be for the taxpayer and the corporation, blessing all like “the gentle rain from heaven”. However, there will always remain some exceptions where citizens would continue to retain the name they have themselves given to a particular streets or roundabout keeping in view the adjacent landmark (like the Tribune Chowk) or the traditional activity plied in the vicinity (like the Labour Chowk). In my neighbourhood there has sprung up a whole lot of “boutiques”—euphemism for a tailor’s shop — and I think this lane will continue to be called the “darzion wali gali” irrespective of the nomenclature given to it by the corporation. |
The art of piecemeal survival THE mutually complementary nature of the regionalisation and personalisation of contemporary Indian politics and the demise of ideology has been discussed at length in these columns. Few had then anticipated that this deadly brew could bring about a whole political culture of outright opportunism in such a short time. Initially, this served the purpose of all players. But the brazen use of the regional card by certain irresponsible NDA partners has set a highly disruptive trend in Indian politics — as disintegrative as religion-based and caste-based politics. Serious national issues are viewed through the regional prism and as such tackled in the narrow partisan interests of the provincial partners. It seems to have acquired a pattern. The Vajpayee Government comes out with a decision provoking instant protests by his own regional allies, then intense bargaining for the cake and a final compromise. All this is done in full public view. At times it looked sections of the ruling party have aligned with the Opposition to assail the government right on the floor of Parliament. All this has become so routine that no one really bothers about what the BJP managers describe the minor antics of the allies. What is important is the final voting. Everything else becomes irrelevant in a scenario where no one really bothers about an orderly functioning of the government on the basis of certain charted out policies and programmes and meaningful inter-party dialogue for cohesive working. Instead, the whole emphasis is on each side pushing through the partisan agenda and gaining some political leverage in their respective state. The BJP managers have proved that the stability of a coalition of regional allies depended purely on the efficacy of the art of piecemeal survival. This short-sighted approach has been the main factor that has led to the ugly display of regionalism. For Mamata Banerjee, Indian Railways is purely a vehicle for power in West Bengal. Even before the Budget presentation she has been trumpeting about her decision to reduce it to an election document of the Trinamul Congress. Railways’ finances, safety, passenger and goods traffic facilities were all ignored to make it attractive to her voters. She had defied the Prime Minister and the government’s advisory bodies. Still worse, in her budget speech, she went to the extent of finding fault with the Finance Minister and other colleagues. This defies the principle of collective responsibility. Rail Minister had always favoured their home states. But what Mamata Banerjee has done goes against the very principles of federalism and collective responsibility of the Cabinet. Much of the blame for this should go to the Prime Minister. To be fair, Mamata had insisted on getting Railways as a precondition for joining the NDA cabinet. The Prime Minister should have put his foot down at that point. Now he could do little if she blatantly refuses to toe the government’s reform line for Railways. When the NDA allies like the Orissa BJD and TDP protested against the discrimination of their States, Mamata showed this to her voters as a proof of the worth of her bonanza to them at the cost of other States. If such arrogant display of regional partisanship has not so far led to parochial responses elsewhere, it only shows the strong sense of integrity and tolerance of the Indian people. For the past two years, even the terms like regionalisation and politicisation have become synonymous. Politicisation of the Centre’s relief efforts virtually meant discrimination against non-NDA-ruled states. To embarrass the Left Government, Mamata herself prevented the Centre from releasing adequate funds to her State when it was hit by severe floods. Orissa felt peeved at the poor flow of central help when the State faced cyclones as disastrous at the Gujarat quakes. NDA partners who can hoodwink the Centre naturally get prompt aid. This had happened during the last year’s drought in Gujarat and Rajasthan and the floods in Bihar. In many cases, coalition partners exert pressure on the government to thwart help to their rival regimes at home. Every central move — Union Budget and legislations, PSU sellout, imports, farm prices and procurement — is being invariably viewed from the regionalistic angle and responded as such. Under threat from the respective NDA allies, Vajpayee was forced to drop the sale and disinvestments in PSU in Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Last year, the Prime Minister buckled under the Shiv Sena threat on the Maruti disinvestment. Mamata had forced a rollback on petroleum prices just because she had an election to fight in her state. This week Chhatisgarh’s Congress Chief Minister Ajit Jogi tried to make the Balco sellout as an issue of Madhya Pradesh’s “tribal pride”. This emotional device worked wonders and even the Opposition BJP in the state extended support to Jogi’s anti-sellout campaign. Last year, Prakash Singh Badal had to resort to threats to change the grading norms for foodgrains purchases by the FCI to pacify the Punjab farmers. Soon the Centre had to extend similar concessions to states like Haryana and UP. As the parochial mindset spreads, even such national issues as the general budget, reform and WTO norms get provincialised by the competing NDA allies. Badal found the new Union Budget acceptable because it contained assurances on his state’s demand for foodgrain purchases and schemes for farmers (even if so vague). M. Karunanidhi is happy just because of the presumed protection to his state’s cash crops like coffee, tea and coconut. Naidu alone seems to have adopted a more sensible approach. Often the non-NDA parties also add to the trend by taunting the respective ruling group about their failure to get things for their state. This makes the regional allies more virulent. Barring the pre-70 Dravidian outfit, regional parties in India have not been regionalistic. Most of them were born as a show of protest against the high-handed manners of the Congress, among the latest being the Trinamul and Moopanar’s TMC. By and large, the provincial outfits took care not to do things that would be termed as parochial. They had also grabbed every opportunity to share power at the Centre and thus join the national mainstream. On all such occasions, they had scrupulously avoided raking up state issues and extended full cooperation to resolve old inter-state disputes. This continued even during the UF era. Thus parochial regionalism as opposed to the hitherto integrative regionalism, has been largely a post-98 trend. When coalitions move away from programmatic understanding and ideological cohesion, the only remaining bond will be the urge for survival. Everything else becomes irrelevant. The MPs could cry hoarse against a government decision and issue bold statements and then after an overnight deal with their state boss, say: “Now we will support it”. This is rank opportunism. Luckily, this is confined to the interested political parties. But its reckless use will take the malaise down to the people. |
Once-mocked nation reaps a harvest of successes Dhaka: In what could be the century’s first major success story notched up by a developing country, Bangladesh is actually faced with a market glut and is now thinking of exporting rice in order to provide farmers with a price incentive. “Bangladesh, for the first time, has attained food self-sufficiency due to efficient agricultural management by the government”, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina told the foreign media in Dhaka on December 17, 2000. And Agriculture Minister Begum Matia Chowdhury told Parliament in January that Bangladesh “plans to export rice, especially fine varieties, as the country has produced surplus food.” Although a question mark hangs over how much of this food is getting through to the millions of people living in dire poverty, it is nevertheless a spectacular achievement for a country that inspired the derogatory American phrase “basket case” for very poor and aid-dependent countries. In spite of persistent and major floods, draughts and pest attacks, Bangladeshi farmers have now reaped bumper harvests for three years in a row, beginning in 1997-98. In the 1999-2000 fiscal year, the country had a food surplus of one-and-a-half million tonnes. The turnaround, which has been marked by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation with an award to Sheikh Hasina, is important to Bangladesh in many respects. Although its plains are one of the most fertile in South Asia, the country missed out on the 1960s’ green-revolution that massively boosted cereal production in other developing countries such as India, Indonesia, Mexico and Pakistan. The farming success in Bangladesh is being put down to a combination of clever agricultural management practices and a factor that technologists apparently failed to take account of — democracy. “The present achievements are... outcomes of democratically elected government,” Moazzem Hossain, an agricultural scientist at Griffith University in Brisbane, Australia, wrote in The Daily Star newspaper in February. After wresting independence from Pakistan in 1971, Bangladesh was ruled by a series of military dictatorships until 1990. With the country’s democratic transition now in motion, Hossain said, a “silent revolution” was taking place in farms across the country. There are figures to back up that claim. According to the Agriculture Ministry, total food production in 1999-2000 was nearly 25.3 million tonnes leaving a surplus of 1.58 million tonnes after meeting domestic requirements. Experts say much of the credit goes to Agriculture Minister Chowdhury — better known as Banglar agni kanya (Bengal’s firebrand daughter) for her role in Bangladesh’s liberation struggle. Bringing that activism and sense of urgency into her government job, Chowdhury is said to have pushed slothful official agencies and bureaucrats into opening a supply line of timely agricultural inputs for farmers — including credits, seeds, fertilisers and pesticides. The government also allowed duty-free imports of tilling and irrigation machinery. Elected in 1996, the present government immediately focused on agriculture, which contributes 32 per cent to the nation’s gross domestic product — and the move paid off when Bangladesh averted a feared food crisis after devastating floods in 1998. After the floods, foreign donors insisted that Bangladesh cut back its agricultural subsidies. But the government resisted the pressure and continued to pour money into the sector, disbursing Taka 30 billion ($55 million) in farm loans in 2000. The result was a post-deluge bumper crop that shored up a crumbling economy. Agriculture advisers now suggest increased use of modern technologies and crop diversification. Already, farmers have begun to grow wheat and vegetables in addition to the staple rice. These experts also say that Bangladesh ought to be exporting vegetables and fruits — at the moment, much of the foreign exchange earnings of around $ 6 billion every year is from readymade garments.
Gemini News |
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Love permits me no rest; It teaches the lesson of
sufferings. Intellect retreats Where love enters. Love leads the prayers; It teaches things beyond religion. *** Love known not dogmas or rituals... All is in vain without love, None realises the truth without love. —Ahasan *** You must weep day and night, Not for a minute or for a while. I continued to weep, O Dadu, And found the beloved within. —Sant Dadu Dayal *** When did you learn, O my beloved, The ways of the butcher? Take a knife sharp enough, Do not kill me with a blunt one. Open my wounds and see, I am deeply in anguish. *** Do not meet me When I search for you, Let not my craving Vanish from my blood. *** Grant me the prayer, O beloved, Meet me not as I seek you, Let not my longing for you vanish, Meet me on the doomsday, And I have spent my life in bliss. —Shah Abdul Latif *** Love is the prescription of the wise, They alone can be in love, Who have knowledge within. —Daryakhan The morning wind forever blows, the poem of creation is uninterrupted; but few are the ears that hear it. *** The morning which is the most memorable season of the day, is the awakening hour. *** May the auspicious dawn Brighten our path And grant us wealth, Vitality, wisdom and valiant posterity! May she come With all abundance and affection, And associated with the Divine forces Continue to shower blessings on us. —Rig Veda, 7.41.7 O Divine dawn When the birds fly forth From their nests, Men must rise to work And earn their sustenance. — Rig Veda, 6.64.6 This heaven-born daughter of the sky Driving away the darkness, Wakes up the human beings From their slumber; She, with her bright lustre, Is perceived dissipating the gloom Even through the
shades of darkness. |
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