The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Rupee’s next destination

VOLATILITY continues in the currency market with the rupee losing heavily or gaining handsomely every day. This fluctuation has sparked a debate on the government’s intentions, the RBI’s role and the likely impact on the economy at large. After dipping close to Rs 46 to a dollar, the Indian currency recovered smartly to close at Rs 45.77 last week. The RBI did not enter the market, although it had asked nationalised banks to sell more than $ 500 million this financial year to steady the rupee which plunged by 1.5 per cent in one week. This year it has shed more than 5 per cent of its value in terms of the dollar. Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha is yet to make up his mind on how to react. One day he said there was no cause for worry but changed the tune the very next day when its effect on oil import bill became obvious. Economists are a divided lot. Some favour a cheaper rupee to spur exports and to make imports costly and thus discourage the flow of consumer goods under the WTO rules. That and higher import duty should partly shield small scale industries from fierce competition from Chinese and South Korean manufacturers. Others fret that costly imports will add to the inflationary pressure and make nonsense of industrial growth revival and lower interest regime. One unorthodox analyst sees a determined government hand behind the devaluation and reels off select statistics in support of his stand. With exports growing by more than 15 per cent with software leading the boom and stock market losing only 14 per cent in value (the fall in index is steeper in other countries) and inflation hovering around 6 per cent, the rupee should gain against all currencies, including the dollar. But it is weakening. Who or what is pulling it down, he asks and dramatically points his finger at the RBI and the Finance Ministry.

Though it hurts the national pride somewhat, the rupee depreciation is not an unalloyed disaster. The very idea of lifting the fixed exchange rate and floating the rupee had in it the seeds of value change. Exporters derive two advantages. Their goods become more competitive and their export earnings get them more rupees. With the end of the import curbs on a large number of items and the WTO frowning or stopping high customs duty, a cheaper rupee becomes an additional tool to keep out those items which have only a slight price advantage. Investors in the stock market or industries will lose when they exchange their rupee holding into their currency, mostly the dollar. A rupee on a roller-coaster dampens inflow of capital; this year foreign exchange reserve has come down by 7 per cent — from $38.34 billion to $ 35.67 billion. This has disturbing potential for the RBI. NRIs have deposited over $ 10 billion in dollars and could take it out any time. Foreign funds dealing in the stock market have brought in another 10 billion. Then there is trade deficit. A wary RBI has asked exporters to bring back half of the balance in foreign banks by Wednesday. This will mean an addition of $ 1 billion to the reserve. But its psychological effect in market nervousness will be strong. It is plain that the usual lag and lead factors are behind the value swings and not speculative activities. Once this works itself out, the rupee will learn to remain stable at around 45 to a dollar.

Arafat’s visit

THE Chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), Mr Yasser Arafat, is such an old and close friend of India that his visits always evoke a lot of interest and genuine euphoria. If his last week’s trip proved to be an exception, it was only because it was kept under the wraps almost till the last moment. Immediately after flying in from Bangladesh he went to the Race Course residence of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee for one-to-one talks, and left the country the next day. Although aides from both sides joined the high-level discussion later, no official statement was issued after the talks. Nor was the agenda of the discussions made public. But it is gathered that Mr Arafat sought India’s reaction on a variety of issues, mainly the possible declaration of independence by Palestine in the near future. He has been on a whirlwind tour of friendly countries to drum up support for this purpose and visited nearly 25 national capitals in a brief span of time. India’s response has not been spelt out but the overall reaction in the countries that he has visited in Europe and Asia is learnt to have been lukewarm at best. While countries like Russia and Indonesia have advised him to exercise restraint keeping in view the sensitivity of the matter, China is reported to have been one of the very few countries that welcomed the move to unilaterally declare the establishment of an independent Palestine state on September 13. India’s reaction has been particularly sought by the PLO chief, not only because it has been a close ally all along but also because it has recently developed an intimate relationship with Israel. This acceptability by the two sides can help India play a key role in getting the Palestine-Israel talks, which tend to get derailed much too often, going. Interestingly, the USA has also briefed India in detail regarding the progress made so far and the obstacles that have slowed it down.

The frustration of Mr Arafat is understandable. The issue of Palestinian statehood has been postponed on one pretext or the other for far too long. He is again being pressurised to postpone the matter till at least November. What is not fully appreciated is that the patience of hawkish supporters of Mr Arafat has been wearing thin. On the other hand, the dwindling legislative support for the Israeli Prime Minister has made sure that he cannot take any bold initiative. In fact, there is a very real possibility that his government may succumb in October. President Clinton, who had been pushing the peace initiative with exceptional zeal, is coming to the end of his second and final term in office and it is doubtful if his successor will be able to keep up the momentum. That is why the PLO insistence on the September 13 deadline is so forceful. The advice of the Japanese Prime Minister, Mr Yoshiro Mori, to display more patience till the negotiations with Israel bear fruit is well-meaning but cannot change the ground realities. Harsh facts are that there is a black and white division between the two parties over contentious issues like the future of Jerusalem. The hope generated by the decision of the two sides to discuss the matter have been dashed to the ground yet again. It would seem that to make peace grow roots in the sandy land would be more difficult than growing crops in the desert.

Kapil’s ‘honourable’ exit

THE working committee of the Board of Control for Cricket in India on Sunday formally adopted a code of conduct for players and administrators. A strict code for cricketers had become necessary after the match-fixing and betting controversies made the game lose its shine and credibility. Only cheats and thugs will oppose the inclusion of a clause which provides for the eraser of the career records of players found involved in match-fixing. The code would come into effect from October after it is approved by the general house of the BCCI on September 29. For once the BCCI deserves credit for acting decisively for eliminating the baneful influence of the dons and the Dawoods on international cricket. When the code comes into effect from October 1 India will become the first Test-playing country to introduce a comprehensive set of rules for bringing at least an iota of gentlemanliness back into the game. The working committee deserves a second pat on the back for empowering BCCI President A.C. Muthiah to find an honourable solution to the controversy raised by Kapil Dev. The former superstar's recent utterances have done little credit to his image and that of the game of cricket. Ever since he was named by Manoj Prabhakar as the player who offered a bribe of Rs 25 lakh to him (Prabhakar) for playing below par, the conduct of the former icon of international cricket has been disappointing. The BBC interview in which Karan Thapar made him cry and issue threats of "committing suicide" rather than betray the country in retrospect was the beginning of the process of the cracking up of the former legend. Whatever little sympathy he may have earned was lost when it became known that the interview was conducted at his request. During his playing days he was a perfect role model on and off the field for the countless young men. He played the game hard, but fair.

So why has he suddenly begun showing, with embarrassing regularity, the face which disturbs his fans. In his latest outburst he committed the unforgivable sin of treating himself as greater than the game which has helped him become what he is today. Kapil Dev's shrinking circle of friends should make him understand that he is not the only player (past player, to be exact) who is being investigated by the CBI and the income tax authorities. The publicity-seeking gimmicks of the two investigative agencies do usually have the effect of projecting a negative image of individuals or individuals being investigated. Even powerful politicians have not been spared, although at the end of the image-damaging exercise the charges they were investigated for could not be proved. But that is a separate issue. As of today, the name of several past and current cricketers along with those of some bookies figured during income tax raids on their premises. Kapil Dev's was, of course, the biggest name in the list of those who are being investigated for match-fixing and tax evasion. Thus far the evidence against most of them, including Kapil Dev, on all counts is pretty thin. So what is it which makes the former leading wicket-taker in Test cricket sob and protest more than any other player under investigation. The signals from the BCCI working committee indicate that Mr Muthiah has been authorised to evolve a formula under which Kapil Dev may be made to step down as the coach of the national team without further loss of face. Thereafter, he would be free to sever all links with the game which helped him secure a place in cricket's hall of fame. But before doing so he should take lessons from another all-time great cricketer, Sunil Gavaskar, who too is involved in a case of tax evasion [and possibly of violation of foreign exchange rules], in the art of taking the rough with the smooth with quiet dignity. At the end of the day Kapil Dev may be found innocent except of the charge that he protests too much.

VIEW FROM WASHINGTON
Anniversaries and expectations
by Inder Malhotra

IT is difficult to think of a week so replete with significant anniversaries as the one that has gone by. August 6 marked two major landmarks. One, the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, exactly 55 years ago, that is an unparalleled act of infamy in history. The other event, the tenth anniversary of which was observed, is not in the same class but is reprehensible enough. It is the imposition of egregious sanctions on Iraq at the time of the Gulf War that are still in force rather unjustifiably.

To say this is not to condone in any way the heinous crimes of Iraq’s ruler, Mr Saddam Hussein. His invasion and annexation of Kuwait was inexcusable, and for this he was rightly punished. But surely there ought to be some rational relationship between crime and punishment.

Not much noticed outside the USA was the second anniversary of the terrorist bombings of American embassies in the capitals of Kenya and Tanzania. At a ceremony at the State Department, Ms Madeleine Albright vowed that the perpetrators of these and other similar acts against her country would never be able to escape. More than half a dozen suspects in connection with the outrage at Nairobi and Dar-es-Salam are already under arrest and in American custody. But their trial hasn’t begun because Washington is awaiting extradition of other accused persons.

Sunday, August 13, was the 74th birthday of Mr Fidel Castro, the Cuban leader who has been in power and office for 41 years and is thus one of the longest serving rulers in the world. Age has in no way weakened his grip on his own country. More than 50 attempts to kill him have been made, mostly by the American CIA. But Castro is going strong while nine American Presidents have come and gone. On his birthday he is savouring his victory in the celebrated custody dispute in which the USA had to return to Havana a six-year-old ship-wrecked boy named Elian. A jubilant Cuban commentator has written: “Elian gave Fidel a chance to demonstrate why he is still the commander-in-chief of this nation.”

This column was written on the eve of the 53rd anniversary of our Independence that was also the 55th anniversary of the day Japan surrendered and World War II ended six days after the second nuclear bomb was dropped on the luckless Japanese city of Nagasaki.

This would have been enough reason to concentrate on the nuclear issue, but there are some other pressing ones to do so. But I will come to it presently. For, a brief word needs to be said first about sanctions on Iraq and the succession of outrages in Jammu and Kashmir by terrorist groups backed to the hilt by Pakistan. That these abominable acts have followed the brief ceasefire by the Hizbul Mujahideen and even more transitory talks between this militant group and officials of the Union government speaks for itself.

As for Iraq, there is a strong feeling in large parts of the world that extremely rigorous sanctions on that country have gone on far too long, and should be eased considerably, if not lifted altogether. This demand was raised on the tenth anniversary of the sanctions at the UN Security Council. The USA in the person of Mr Thomas Pickering, Under Secretary of State, tersely turned it down. Strangely, the American establishment remains oblivious of the tragic fact that these sanctions do not cause any suffering to the Iraqi President and his cohorts. It is the poor of that country who have been driven to despair and destitution. According to uncontested estimates, 150 children in Iraq are dying every single day because of lack of food and life-saving drugs.

On the butchery and slaughter in Kashmir the only thing to be said is that the Indian state and people of Kashmir have to put the grit and determination to fight their enemies. For this purpose, it is imperative that New Delhi should at this late stage at least build bridges with the alienated people of the once happy valley.

A thoughtful despatch in The Washington Post makes the pertinent point that the despair surrounding the latest developments in Kashmir has within it a ray of “hope”, if only because stakes in peace are being underscored and the recent weeks’ drama has cast India in a better light, in the short run at least. American sources have also welcomed Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee’s continuing commitment to “separate talks” with Kashmir leaders, militant groups and Pakistan.

And now over to the vexed nuclear question in the context of Hiroshima. It is sad that on the latest Hiroshima Day, as on other occasions, Japanese rhetoric remained hypocritical. As the only country to have suffered atomic holocaust, Japan is quite happy to tell countries like India, from under the US nuclear umbrella, that they must give up nuclear weapons whatever their security concerns. It is objective enough to admit that the five accepted nuclear weapon powers are doing little to promote the necessary goal of total nuclear disarmament. But it blandly adds that the NPT, the foundation on which rests the nuclear monopoly of the Gang of Five, must be adhered to by all countries of the world.

Two days after Hiroshima Day, The New York Times published a long article, starting on first page and covering a quarter of an inside one, repeating the familiar message that because of the Kashmir dispute, the subcontinent was a “nuclear flashpoint”. The strange thing about this alarmist despatch was that it reported no new development. It merely flogged the dated information that at the time of Kargil, US intelligence had concluded that the armed conflict in the Kargil-Drass-Batalik area could escalate into a nuclear exchange.

This “intelligence estimate”, according to the newspaper, had influenced all the moves of the Clinton administration on South Asia, including the “encouragement” the US President gave to Mr Nawaz Sharif to withdraw “Pakistan-backed militants” from Kargil.

Why this essay in repeating stale and unappetising food dug out of the deep freeze? The only possible explanation is that Washington wanted to signal to New Delhi that nonproliferation remains high on its agenda for talks with Mr Vajpayee when he comes here on a state visit next month. The feeling in the US capital is that India “mistakenly” expects the nuclear issue to be put on the back-burner in the course of the Indo-US dialogue aimed at “broadening and deepening the relationship”.

According to the best information available here, the “minimum American aspiration” is that before the Vajpayee visit India should sign the CTBT. Ms Albright is quoted as having said that if this does happen, Mr Vajpayee could expect an enthusiastic welcome the like of which Washington hasn’t witnessed for a long time. Otherwise, his visit would be a “routine one”.

Strange though it may seem, Americans are dismissive of the argument that the Clinton administration, now on its last legs, can hardly expect India to sign in hot haste a controversial treaty that has been rejected by the US Senate.

As against this adamant stand on the CTBT, there have been some second thoughts in the USA over the National Missile Defence programme that has evoked vigorous opposition across the world. But the issue is deeply entangled in the election campaign and could seriously affect the voting pattern. Given its great import and even greater complexity, it will have to be discussed separately and at some length.

Women’s empowerment: role of self-help groups
by Dildar Khan

NEARLY half of India’s population comprises women, and their participation in economic activities is essential for nation building at a fast pace. The idea of equality of women and men will remain a myth till the former become economically self-reliant. The entry of women in the entrepreneurial field is crucial from this angle.

Haryana is one of the agriculturally developed states of India. It has a per capita income of Rs 3,446 at constant prices, which is the third highest among the states. As far as poverty is concerned, it is 28 per cent in comparison with 36 per cent at the national level. Further, the growing realisation about the need and relevance of education is enhancing the literacy rate. In Haryana, the literacy rate has increased from 36.14 in 1981 to 55.95 in 1991. However, the discrepancy between literacy among men and women is large. This is perhaps due to old stereotypes and cultural factors. Literacy rates among males and females are 69.10 and 40.47 per cent, respectively.

In contrast to the economic well-being of the state, the indices for women are not encouraging. The sex ratio in Haryana is 865, which means that there are 865 females for 1000 males. This ratio at the national level is 929 which is quite large in comparison with Haryana. In India, the usual male and female work participation rates (WPR) are 51.9 and 18.4 per cent, respectively, while in Haryana these are 47.9 and 11.3 per cent, respectively (census 1991).

This data indicates that work participation in the case of women, especially in the rural areas, is not satisfactory. The problem of self-employment among poor women is more acute. Immediate steps need to be taken at the state level to raise the economic status of women and save them from male domination.

It is common knowledge that under the prevailing socio-economic conditions, the male child is shown preference over the female child in terms of health care and education. This phenomenon may be more prominent in the lower strata of society.

There are schemes for the development of women, particularly related to income generation and general welfare. Some of the schemes like Mahila Jagran aim at improving the standard of living of the poor in general and women in particular by providing opportunities for self-employment through skill upgradation, training, credit availability and other support services. The role of self-help groups (SHGs) in women’s empowerment is vital. In some states like Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and even the Mewat region of Haryana SHGs are functioning satisfactorily. The success of the SHGs in a number of villages has convinced both the NGOs and the government about the utility of this institution in eradicating poverty and raising the socio-economic status of women.

Traditionally, the thrift and credit system has had great relevance for women’s empowerment. Of late, women have been trying to cater to their economic needs and escape from the clutches of moneylenders on their own. They run informal credit structures. There are popularly known as kitty parties, chit funds, committees, etc. Such thrift and credit institutions are organised by women themselves. These have succeeded in many respects, although they suffer from shortcomings both in ideology and management. Cash transaction are the prime motive of these initiatives. However, the concept of empowerment goes beyond simple cash transaction. This is an area where the micro-credit system has greater relevance.

The micro-credit system is based on a concept of economic empowerment through the formation and nurturing of SHGs. A self-help group is a voluntary association of a few individuals who have come together for a common cause, to meet at a regular interval, conscious of their responsibilities. They work for a common cause, have their leader, and function according to the rules and regulations which they have formulated themselves, democratically.

The NGOs having grassroot-level work programmes are most appropriate forums for organising the people and forming self-help groups. Since the SHGs should be homogenous for smooth functioning and better results, the NGOs, with their active involvement in the field and experience in working for the people, can properly assess the situation for the formation of SHGs. They can disseminate information and create awareness among the people about the concept of the SHG, its role, impact, relevance and results when formed, and run effectively. Similarly, the maintenance of documents concerning the accounts and minutes of meeting and the procedures to be followed should also be taught to the members of the SHGs.

Many NGOs started promoting SHGs by encouraging villagers, particularly women, to improve the condition of the poorest sections of society. As a result, SHGs were formed in a large number of villages across the country. The villagers have not only subscribed to the concept but also appreciated it since it encourages the habit of saving. It helps the poor to pool their resources and also to obtain loans.

The formation of SHGs was perceived by the rural people as an alternative way to improve their socio-economic conditions, particularly of women, by providing them with loans at a low interest. The SHGs also motivated the rural women to develop entrepreneurial skills.

Recently a large number of NGOs also came forward to educate poor villagers to form SHGs so as to minimise or end their dependence on moneylenders. For instance, the Mewat Development Agency in Haryana is attaching great importance to the promotion of SHGs in the rural areas of Mewat so as to improve the socio-economic condition of marginal farmers and the poorest section of women. As a result, women have formed SHGs in a number of Mewat villages.

The formation of such groups has not only helped the rural people to meet their financial requirements but also to develop the wisdom to use discreetly their own resources and to understand the felt needs of the members of such groups. However, the poorest of the poor — basically the landless villagers — have not been benefited by this movement. It is hoped these SHGs will end their dependence on financial organisations and try to extend their reach to the left-out sections.

The writer is a Chandigarh-based social scientist.

Political terms
by Raman Mohan

FOR as long as I can remember, I have this nasty habit of going to sleep with a book. Over the decades books have put me to sleep more effectively than tranquillisers and sleeping pills. Nevertheless, one night last week, one book made me lose sleep. Earlier that day, I was able to lay my hands on Wilfred Funk’s masterpiece, “Word Origins” that I had been looking for years in bookstores everywhere. Although, I was tired and could have slept off without much effort, I could not deny myself the pleasure of browsing through the new addition to my library.

Going through the contents I decided to have a quick look at the origins of many widely used political terms. And was I shocked! Some of these wily terms made me sit up and wonder how our politicos could be so aware of the origins of these terms when most of them can’t even read English properly. It also made me wonder whether those who coined these terms were aware that Indian politicos would one day live up to their meanings literally. Here are some of these entries.

Candidate: Clad in white. When a Roman politician went campaigning he took care that his toga was immaculately white so that he could make the best impression possible. The Latin word candidatus first simply meant “a person dressed in white” but later it took on the meaning that our word candidate has, a seeker after office. The root of candidatus can be recognised in our word incandescent, which means “white and glowing” and in candid, for a candid person, in the figurative sense is white and pure. And, therefore, frank and honest.

I was wonder struck. Perhaps no other democracy in the world has an unofficial yet universal white dress code for its politicians except our very own India. And our candidates in white robes wish to convey exactly the same impression, rightly or wrongly, as the term suggests. That in a way also solves the mystery behind how our own political lexicon came to acquire equally fascinating synonyms in Hindi for the term candidate. Ticketaarthi — that is what a person seeking a ticket for an election is known as these days — exactly like the “seeker after office” described in the book. And we also have safedposh, which means a man clad in white and more often than not, a politician.

Since I also have this bad habit of reading a book backwards, I backtracked to the origin of the word “ballot” which went like this: Ballot: why we “cast” a ballot. The ballot we cast and the bullet we shoot were both balls at the beginning, but are descended from widely different parents. Bullet comes down to us through the French boulette, “a small ball”, from the Latin bulla, a “bubble”, “boss”, or “stud”, while ballot traces to the Italian ballota: “a little ball”, a word of Germanic origin. With us a ballot is a sheet of paper we put a cross on and drop in a box on election day, unless we are dealing with voting machines. But the ancient Greek dropped a white ball of stone or metal or shell in a container when he favoured a candidate, a black ball when he was against — which explains why the undesirable are still “blackballed” in our clubs. The ball we throw and bat around in our games has a closely related parentage as it comes from the same Germanic source as the Italian ballotta.

This was simply too much. Once again I wondered which other democracy in the world except ours has to this day such a close relationship between the ballot and the bullet. You just have to have a look at what happened when our Bihari babus cast their ballots the last time to see what I mean.

Next I came to the term “bribe” and this is what I found: Bribe: a piece of bread. Many of the words that concern themselves with the idea of companionship or conciliation (including these two words themselves) have to do with the sharing of food. Bribe is such a word. In modern French, and in the plural, bribes means bits, odds, ends, and leavings, but in Old French it meant a lump of bread, or, as an olden-time author said: “A piece, lumple or cantill of bread given unto a beggar.” The development of bribe seems to have been along the following lines: first a piece of bread, then begging, then living by beggary, then theft, and finally blackmail and bribery in the modern sense.

And that is what bribery means in the current Indian political lexicon — blackmail. Sheer blackmail. Look at the Hindi synonym for bribe — ghoons which appears to have originated from ghoonsa — a fist representing the intention to hit unless..... Unless of course I got it all wrong. But, did I?

Diaspora: problems & potential
by P. Raman

IN many ways, the widening Indian diaspora of the 21st century is a true reflection of the contemporary world. The diaspora itself is divided into the super rich first world and the struggling third world with both having their own problems and potentials. As in global politics, we tend to ignore the third world diaspora as those poor cousins have little resources or power to be of any help. They get our attention only when ethnic troubles or eviction disturb them.

On the other, the whole attention is on the first world diaspora which is being depicted as the final destination for every aspiring Indian youth. The pinkies constantly write about their corporate achievements and the cover stories remind us of the “100 successful Indians”. The tendency to see only the brighter side of globalisation often makes them run away from the truth and actual relevance of such success stories to the parent country or even to the millions of fellow NRIs. True, those who struggled hard deserve all praise. But the Indian diaspora itself is so complex that it should be dealt with in segments depending on their specific problems.

The Indian diaspora falls into three categories. The first is composed of the indentured labour voluntarily or forcibly taken during the early British era as estate labour in faraway colonies. Many had perished on the overcrowded and understored ships — the case of Komagatamaru is different — to Fiji, Trinidad, Singapore, Malaysia, Mauritius, Sri Lanka etc. Those who had stayed back became part of the host country, and in the absence of communication lost much of the cultural traits. They had to struggle hard to the top. N. Ramgoolam (Mauritius), Basudev Pande (Trinidad), Ujjal Dosanjh (British Columbia), S.R. Nathan (Singapore) etc rose up to the ranks of Prime Ministers and Presidents. The early Canadian emigrants had an arduous life. What, however, differentiated them has been their enlightened nationalism and the resultant role in India’s freedom movement.

In the second category are those who had settled in British colonies, mostly third world, as professionals or to do petty business. In the 1960s, a big chunk of them were chased out in ethnic cleansing. From the late 60s also began the third generation migration simultaneously to the petro-rich Gulf and prosperous states like the USA and Canada. The former came as a big boom. Since it was strictly on time-bound work permits, it did not make a stable diaspora. For the same reason, remittances from the Gulf are substantial and more or less constant.

Rapid globalisation and ever increasing sophistication of production process and technology have made the exodus to the developed West most significant. What began as tricklings in the mid-60s have now taken the form of an outpouring. As a result, there has been a rapid rise in the number of Indians in the USA, Canada, Australia etc. Indian exodus to East Asia seems to be picking up despite their economic collapse three years back. Such rosy prospects apart, certain aspects of the man power exports to the developed world calls for a closer look. It has vast potentials as well as limitations.

Strict visa regulations to these countries restrict the migration to highly qualified professionals or bona fide businessmen. While the USA has been liberal in letting in IIT products, technicians from prestigeous national institutes and research scholars, they put rigorous conditions on the entry of mediocre and low-level workers. This has been the reason for the better economic status of the Indians in the USA. At one time, there has been concern in India over what was then described as a veritable brain drain. One-thirds of the NASA scientists and technicians and Microsoft brains are said to be Indians. This talent drain accounts for the success of the Indians in the USA. President Clinton had said that Indians owned over 750 companies in Silicon Valley. Indians have also climbed up to head many giant US firms.

The information technology explosion that began in the last decade has made the real breakthrough for our teeming computer wiz kids. Historical reasons like the command over English, abundance of a career-serious middle class and the relatively cheap and widespread computer education facilities have produced software experts in thousands in each region. Rosy prospects abroad have given further impetus to the process. The USA demand for outside software personnel is put at around one lakh a year. Just last week, Germany, despite local resistance, has let in 3,000 computer professionals to work on the US-style five-year green cards. Business firms have been pressurising other European Union countries to allow experts in different fields from non-EU states.

There are two reasons for this. Primarily, sophistication of production process demands the induction of technically better equipped staff even as it throws more out of job. Many EU countries are also facing demographic problems. Due to low fertility rates, Germany needs an annual one lakh import of manpower. The position of Italy is worse. Despite such pressing demands, the EU countries are also facing fierce opposition to the entry of foreign professionals. Two months back, an Indian researcher was attacked in Germany due to racial prejudice. German authorities have moved to check the widespread anti-foreigner violence launched by the right-wing outfits with known public support.

This xenophobia has led to at least 30 extremist attacks on foreigners this year alone. The government has closed down many extremist websites and is preparing a list of those who lead such activities. A recent EU survey showed that a third of its citizens felt it necessary to call themselves racists as they feared the influx would hurt their prospects. In Israel, opposition to bring in 10,000 Indian IT professionals is being led by a Minister who feels that the move would amount to “making money on the backs of the unemployed” Israelis. Even in UK with a million-strong Indian diaspora, there have been a spurt in racist abuses.

To pacify the local ire and what they claim maintain the demographic balance, each developed country is trying to produce more indigenous expert manpower. The US government is considering a proposal to hike the fee to about Rs 1 lakh for its H1B visa. The proceeds are proposed to be used to encourage the local talents in computer technology. Practically, every developed country has begun such “import substitution” measures to discourage influx of foreign technicians. While such moves will not affect the immediate prospects of our boys and girls, it should also warn us about the long-term challenges.

A word of caution about the undue hopes on the NRI contribution to the Indian economy. Unlike those on term contract abroad, a settled NRI migrant brings in less remittances. Funds flow from them is in direct proportion to their naturalisation in the host country and how well they have settled. The tendency among them has been to invest the surpluses in the best available country in the most advantageous schemes. A year back if the NRIs had pumped about $ 4 billion into India, it has not been due to their patriotic fervour but the most attractive terms offered by the RBI with special guarantees. The overseas Chinese have been the backbone of China’s economic upsurge. They accounted for the bulk of new FDI flow into China, especially in exportable sectors.

As compared to this, the NRIs have made negligible contribution to India’s FDI. Instead, what we witness has been a disturbing diverse trend in sectors like the new economy segments where the domestic firms show a tendency to shift to the foreign havens like Silicon Valley for betters exposures. Such unpleasant facts may be unpalatable to those who wish to project only the brighter side. All the same, one cannot charge the government with not doing enough to woo the NRIs. India has announced many attractive facilities for the NRIs.

In this context, one must view with concern certain moves to instil excessive dose of patriotism in Indian diaspora. It is normal for every uprooted community to long for its nostalgic aspirations. We have our own masalas, achaars and saris. A community can also be proud of its heritage. Problems arise when the exaggerated pride in lineage is stretched to chauvinist and supremacist displays. Possibly Indian diaspora can learn from the experience of the linguistic minorities in Indian towns and cities who make it point to associate others too with their functions. Juxtaposing of the “6000 years” of civilisation with that of the “crude” tribal culture had heightened the divide in Fiji along with the prosperity of the Indians.

Such boastful displays can have severe backlash in a xenophobic atmosphere where Indian have to work. The RSS Parivar seems to give it a new twist by introducing Hindu assertion in the context of Samuel P. Huntington’s theory of the “clash of civilisations.” Brahmin priests are being given training in Hindu rituals and philosophy to be employed in the UK, the USA, Singapore, Mauritius, Fiji, Canada etc to “counter the influence of Christianity” among the NRIs. The first batch of 33 has already completed nine-month training in Modipuram near Meerut. These English knowing priests are expected to spread Indian culture abroad.

The parivar is taking the mission in all earnestness. Its boss K.S. Sudarshan is on a month-long world tour to inspect its foreign shakhas which are variously called Bharatiya Swayam Sevak Sangh and Hindu Swayam Sevak Sangh. They claimed to function in Europe, America, Asia and Africa. This month, Far Eastern Economic Review had reported setting up of a shakha in the otherwise closed Yangon (Rangoon) with the permission of its military regime. The RSS-VHP have men to handle the overseas shakhas. Such assertive moves can only encourage the protectionist crowds in the prosperous West.